Alternate Electoral Maps II

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From a President Elect 1988 game I played recently. The closest state is Maryland, which Reagan won by less than 300 votes.

1976

genusmap.php


Gov. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Sen. Richard Schweiker (R-PA) - 48.8% - 279 EVs
Gov. Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Sen. Walter Mondale (D-MN) - 49.5% - 259 EVs
 
From a President Elect 1988 game I played recently. The closest state is Maryland, which Reagan won by less than 300 votes.

1976

genusmap.php


Gov. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Sen. Richard Schweiker (R-PA) - 48.8% - 279 EVs
Gov. Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Sen. Walter Mondale (D-MN) - 49.5% - 259 EVs
Good stuff, somehow a scenario more controversial than OTL 2000 with less than 300 votes preventing it from going to the House and (presumably) electing Carter.

Edit: electing, not re-electing. Thought it was 1980 instead of 1976.
 
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Yeah. Colorado is almost understandable but Florida? That's an oddity.

Hurricanes? Maybe there's a record-breaking season, and the Greens use that to say that they're the only party that'll combat global warming, or some such. That's my best guess for how they'd ever manage it.
 
The Seventh Party System: Part XXXXIII
Map of the United States
Part I - Metropotamia
Part II - Alta California
Part III - North Carolina
Part IV - New Jersey
Part V - Adams
Part VI - Alabama
Part VII - Rhode Island
Part VIII - Sequoyah
Part IX - Assenisipia
Part X - East Florida
Part XI - Tennessee
Part XII - Kansas
Part XIII - Dakota
Part XIV - Arizona
Part XV - Delaware
Part XVI - Oregon
Part XVII - Ozark
Part XVIII - New Hampshire
Part XIX - Western Connecticut
Part XX - New York
Part XXI - Santo Domingo
Part XXII - South Carolina
Part XXIII - Baja California
Part XXIV - Chersonesus
Part XXV - Canal Zone Territory
Part XXVI - West Florida
Part XXVII - Missouri
Part XXVIII - Colorado
Part XXIX - Trinidad and Tobago
Part XXX - Pennsylvania
Part XXXI - Wisconsin
Part XXXII - Lincoln
Part XXXIII - Deseret
Part XXXIV - Platte
Part XXXV - Kiribati
Part XXXVI - New Mexico
Part XXXVII - Maine
Part XXXVIII - Alaska
Part XXXIX - Hamilton
Part XXXX - Mississippi
Part XXXXI - North Virginia
Part XXXXII - Bioko


Hawaii is a state of deep divisions, divisions which would flare up and lead to momentous results in the 2018 elections.

The history of Hawaii began as that of an independent kingdom which was colonized by the US during its imperialist era of the late 1800s and early 1900s. Being a non-voting territory for many years, it wasn't until after the conclusion of WWIII that Hawaii was finally promised statehood, as a reward for their bravery in defending the islands from Japanese invaders. However, the ruling party in Hawaii, the Bayonets, feared democracy for the effects it might have for Big Fruit and the sugarcane monopoly. With the Bayonets being highly committed to not only devout Protestantism but also laissez-faire economics, they made every effort possible to delay statehood for the Hawaiian people in a desperate bid to maintain their corporate government.

This would result in a growing animosity between the White planters and the mainly Native and Filipino workers. This would lead to the birth of the Aloha Aina organization, which sought for an independent Hawaii by any means necessary, including violence. Their debut would come on the tenth anniversary of the end of WWIII on August 15th, when at a ceremony commemorating the fallen in WWIII a bomb was detonated, killing three senior officers and mutilating Fleet Admiral Nimitz, who was later forced to amputate both of his legs.

With this attack on the senior leadership of the US Navy, total war was swiftly declared against Aloha Aina. With the organization having an estimated membership of over 30,000 the streets of Honolulu soon became soaked in blood as paramilitary fighters defended their urban hideouts from Navy SEALs. However the conflict would soon turn ugly as the Bayonets secretly founded their own paramilitary wing, the Hawaiian Defense Association, which began assassinating dozens of human rights activists and labor leaders under the guise of "rooting out Aloha Aina sympathizers." When the General Secretary of the International Longshore Union was killed on April 1st of 1960 while visiting warehouse workers in Honolulu, the ILU decided that enough was enough and called a general strike for all of its 330,000 members.

Due to the fact that the ILU having workers across all major ports in not only Hawaii but all Pacific Coast states, the military's response in Hawaii began to receive criticism from activists across America. While President LBJ denounced the ILU as communist subversives, labor activists began to speak out about the necessity of protecting Labor Union leaders from corporate assassins. With 1960 being an election year in which the Republican opposition sought to defeat the longstanding dominance of the National Union party, the trouble in Hawaii needed to be resolved in order to save the NU's reputation for stability. Thus on August 12th, a ceasefire was announced between Aloha Aina and the US government, in which Hawaii would be immediately granted statehood in return for Aloha Aina disarming.

While this ceasefire may have held the peace under LBJ, when Nixon was inaugurated into the White House after the Conservative Revolution of 1972 old tensions began to flare up again. With the Conservatives now in charge of the federal government, corporate executives allied to the Bayonet party became embolden again, and ordered the Hawaiian Defense Association to rearm themselves and start killing troublesome labor leaders who were leading the General Strike of 1973 in protest of the Conservative's repealing the Civil Rights Act. This of course angered many of Hawaiian workers, who soon began to see independence as a viable strategy again to escape the conservative's reign. Thus Aloha Aina soon began to rearm themselves as well, coming out of the gates blazing hot with synchronized bomb attacks on Big Fruit executive offices in the heart of Honolulu's business district.

These bombings prompted the declaration of marital law in Hawaii on July 31st, 1973 by Governor William Quinn, however with President Richard Nixon keen to avoid criticism for being too tyrannical like LBJ the governor knew that Hawaii was unlikely to be authorized to use federal troops. With the Hawaiian National Guard being rather limited in terms of manpower, they thus struck a back door deal with the HDA, supplying them with state of the art weaponry in return for joining them in the fight against Aloha Aina. This opened a new chapter in the troubled history of Hawaii, with the declaration of marital law being seen by many as the start of the Hawaiian Civil War.

This civil war would last a total of 22 years, leading to the deaths of over 74,000 people until the civil war was finally ended in 1994. The first few years of the war was marked with grandiose displays such as the whole scale firebombing of Molokai by National Guard forces which has lead to the entire island being depopulated even to this day. However, as the years dragged on, such maneuvers drew criticism even from the Bayonets, as they impeded business operations and lead to the bankruptcy of three of the five Big Fruit companies in 1975. This opened open the stage for the second phase of the civil war, which lasted for 19 years, in which low level guerrilla warfare was conducted against suspected Aloha Aina paramilitary fighters.

Even though marital law was officially lifted in the state, the casualty rate remained high. Between 1976 and 1995 an average of 1900 people were killed every year, with the single deadliest event being in 1988, when Aloha Aina successfully hijacked Pan Am Flight 301 and crash landed into the USS Cole, killing 432 people in all.

All this bloodshed would finally come to a stop in 1995, when the new Labor led government began peace negotiations with Aloha Aina, seeking the same success which LBJ had 35 years prior. In the end both sides signed the Good Sunday Agreement, in which members of Aloha Aina would be pardoned in return for the group disarming and refusing to take part in any more protests for independence. Out of all the various groups active in the Hawaiian Civil War, only the HDA refused to agree to the Good Sunday Agreement, leading to the federal government raiding the HDA's secret headquarters and discovering the fact that they had been just a puppet for Big Fruit all along. This revelation lead to massive decreases in the stock prices for the two remaining Big Fruit companies, United Fruit Company and Standard Fruit Company, leading to the bankruptcy of both companies and the death of the Big Fruit industry once and for all.

While the Good Sunday Agreement had brought peace to the islands for the past 23 years, the election season of 2018 soon threatened the legitimacy of this peace treaty. It all started in August of 2018, when the Banaba papers were leaked, revealing the US military's atrocities which wiped out the population of the island in the 1950s. This reminded the populace of Hawaii about the atrocities committed by the Hawaiian National Guard, such as the firebombing of Molokai. Then, around the same time as documents were being leaked about Kiribati, the Bayonets had their servers hacked as well, leaking to the public how their party was actually the original founders of the HDA, leading to outrage as many called for an out right banning of the Bayonet party.

Yet this criticism only lead to the Bayonets becoming more defiant, as their party leader Bob McDermott revealed that his party had never really given up their hatred of Aloha Aina, and instead called for a banning on Aloha Aina and the arrest of all their party leaders. Thus Aloha Aina up their game as well, with party leader Tulsi Gabbard announcing that Aloha Aina also no longer believed in the validity of the Good Sunday Agreement and would retake their old position of calling for Hawaiian independence once again.

With both sides becoming more and more radicalized many pundits predicted an easy win for the Christian Republican Union, the main conservative party of Hawaii which had been a part of every government since the end of the Hawaiian Civil War. Yet these analysts were completely shocked when the exact opposite happened and both Aloha Aina and the Bayonets gained seats, mainly at the expense of the CRU.

This lead to a situation which Hawaii had never before been in, a situation in which the pro-independence movement had a legitimate chance of gaining power. The main autonomous party, Kuokoa, while not explicitly in favor of independence was in favor of greater autonomy for Hawaii and supported the ideals of Aloha Aina. And then, unexpectedly, the ILU also announced their support of Aloha Aina, despite Aloha Aina being a conservative party in favor of restoring a monarchy. While the ILU had always been in favor of greater autonomy for Hawaii, they were seen as mainly a left wing competitor to the Liberal Kuokoa party, and many never saw them allying with Aloha Aina in a million years.

So now, with an Aloha Aina governor sitting in Honolulu for the first time the state is entering uncharted waters as Gabbard has announced her government would be rolling out a referendum on Hawaiian independence in 2019, a move which has been criticized by many for being unconstitutional and heightened the calls among the Bayonets for the arrest of all Aloha Aina leaders.

Government:
Aloha Aina - A conservative monarchist party which has fought, both literally and figuratively, for Hawaiian independence since the late 1950s. While the party had to change their official position to that of upholding the Good Sunday agreement ever since 1995, many have suspected that the party still remained firmly in favor of independence, a suspicion which has been proven true by this year's election.
Kuokoa - A liberal party in favor of more autonomy for Hawaii, they disagree with Aloha Aina on social issues and fight for not only civil unions, but eventually the legalization of same sex marriage in Hawaii. On economic issues, the party is also slightly to the left of Aloha Aina, criticizing their reluctance to stand up for labor unions and welfare for the poor. Nevertheless, they hate the CRU much more than they could ever hate Aloha Aina, and thus have happily agreed to enter government with them.

Supply:
International Longshore Union - A socialist party which acts as the political arm of the powerful labor union with the same name, they refuse to enter any bourgeoisie government. Yet at the same time they never ruled out supporting another government, and given their grievances with the CRU they also decided to support Aloha Aina to bring some needed change to Hawaii.

Opposition:
Christian Republican Union - The main party for loyalists opposed to greater Hawaiian autonomy, they are a center right conservative party committed to social conservatism and denying gay couples the right to any sort of civil union. On economic issues they are also right wing and often find themselves to be nearly identical policy wise to the Buckley Republicans.
Bayonets - The Bayonet party is a radically right wing which has comparable positions to those of the Constitution party. They believe in the two Gods of Jesus Christ and Milton Friedman, despising anyone who refuses to uphold the free market and the word of the Bible. The party was first in power during the pre statehood era of Hawaii due to their connections to Big Fruit, however they have often been in government to support the CRU whenever it needs the votes. Now that Aloha Aina is in power the Bayonets are becoming more hostile to the CRU then ever before, with some of its more radical members even suggesting that the CRU leaders should be arrested as well for having been to weak on Aloha Aina.
Progressives - The party of social liberals, they are not very strong in the rather conservative state of Hawaii. Being firmly on the anti-autonomist side of the debate, they have often supported CRU governments just to ensure that Aloha Aina doesn't come to power. However in this election their Asian voters left them entirely for Aloha Aina and Kuokoa, believing that more rights need to be given to the people of Hawaii.
Alliance Party of Hawaii - A liberal party which is committed to the Good Sunday Agreement, they wish to tone down the hostilities which exist between Aloha Aina and the Bayonets, however with their voteshare having gone down in this election it seems as though their message of peace has fallen on deaf ears.
Green Liberal Party - A conservative environmentalist party, they were expelled from the national Green party for refusing to support gay couples right to a civil union. And while they may be committed to social conservatism on economic ideology there are fairly centrist and on environment issues they are of course the most left wing out of any of the parties in Hawaii, save for the Progressives and perhaps the ILU.

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Just got back from a ten-day trip, so here's an update for Election Night: Center Outward (never actually said the title on this site):

11:21 P.M. E.S.T.

Gomez: We now have three projections to make:

NEW JERSEY - 79% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,658,201 (53.69%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,399,804 (45.33%)
Others: 30,186 (.98%)

Gomez: The Garden State can be called for Manchin. Although New Jersey has a strong Democratic lean, Baker's suburban strength has kept the state very close. Manchin currently has an 8% lead, but many solidly Republican areas still have ballots to count, though this will not be enough to flip the state.


DELAWARE - 85% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 192,464 (51.08%)

Baker/Sandoval: 180,406 (47.88%)
Others: 3,899 (1.04%)

Gomez: Delaware can be projected for Joe Manchin. The First State usually votes similarly to New Jersey, though currently it is about 5% more Republican than New Jersey. New Jersey has more ballots left to count, though, so it is likely that the results will be more similar between the two states.


COLORADO - 67% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 1,078,109 (57.21%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 788,001 (41.81%)
Others: 18,499 (.98%)

Gomez: Colorado can be projected for Governor Baker. Although the Centennial State has trended Democratic since the turn of the 21st century, the moderate Baker appears to have played well with Coloradan voters, and the presence of a Hispanic on the ticket has contributed to strong Republican support among that group.

vjE1DWT.png


Gomez: Manchin has taken the lead in the Electoral College, but by only one vote, 175-174, with 186 uncalled and 3 in Alaska, the only state where polls are still open.


12:00 A.M. E.S.T.

Gomez: The polls have closed in the last state, Alaska. It can be projected for Baker and Sandoval:

ALASKA - <1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 401 (56.88%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 302 (42.84%)
Others: 2 (.28%)

EzwKuky.png


Gomez: Baker has taken back the lead, but by just two electoral votes, 177-175, with 186 unprojected and no polls still open. There is no clear opening for either candidate yet. 18 states remain uncalled, most of which closed their polls several hours ago. For Manchin to win, he must pull off wins in the Rust Belt while holding on to the Pacific Northwest and Massachusetts/Rhode Island. For Baker to win, he must win the Deep South and the Lower Midwest.
 
Done some more.

QUOTE

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View attachment 383476 UK general election, 2017, with STV

I've noticed a few issues. Arran is part of Argyll, Dumbarton and Stirling when it should be part of the North Ayrshire and Renfrewshire seat. Furthermore, based on the actual results of last year's election, the LDs winning seats in Central Scotland and not the Conservatives seems unlikely. Of the seats that make up the North Ayrshire and Renfrewshire seat, the Conservatives came in 2nd place in the 2 North Ayrshire seats and were not too far behind Labour in one of the seats in Renfrewshire. Additionally, the LDs lost their deposits in the 33 actual seats that stretch from the Clyde to the Forth. You also have Lib Dems ahead of the Conservatives in Scotland which is another unlikely prospect since the Conservatives would probably pick up most of the unionist transfers.

Furthermore, you have the Lib Dems come in first place in Cumbria South when in reality it would be the Conservatives. Outside of 'Farron'land, they perfrom very poorly. Furthermore, the Conservatives are a very close 2nd in Barrow and Farron's own seat.

Additionally, in the seat that covers Swindon, Labour fail to win a seat which is beyond me since both seats are very marginal conservative seats.
 
I've noticed a few issues. Arran is part of Argyll, Dumbarton and Stirling when it should be part of the North Ayrshire and Renfrewshire seat. Furthermore, based on the actual results of last year's election, the LDs winning seats in Central Scotland and not the Conservatives seems unlikely. Of the seats that make up the North Ayrshire and Renfrewshire seat, the Conservatives came in 2nd place in the 2 North Ayrshire seats and were not too far behind Labour in one of the seats in Renfrewshire. Additionally, the LDs lost their deposits in the 33 actual seats that stretch from the Clyde to the Forth. You also have Lib Dems ahead of the Conservatives in Scotland which is another unlikely prospect since the Conservatives would probably pick up most of the unionist transfers.

Furthermore, you have the Lib Dems come in first place in Cumbria South when in reality it would be the Conservatives. Outside of 'Farron'land, they perfrom very poorly. Furthermore, the Conservatives are a very close 2nd in Barrow and Farron's own seat.

Additionally, in the seat that covers Swindon, Labour fail to win a seat which is beyond me since both seats are very marginal conservative seats.
I assume that in Central Scotland Labour votes will preference the Lib Dems over the Tories, so while the SNP would get relatively little support from unionist voters, the Tories wouldn't be the only unionist party winning seats. However I do seem to have overestimated the likely Lib Dem seat count...
Either one of either Labour or the Lib Dems would elect a member in some of those five-seaters.
I admit I made Cumbria South colored Lib Dem mainly to bring a bit of color to the map. I wasn't sure what to color it, so I figured I may as well make it orange.

As for Swindon, I assumed the Tory margins in the Wiltshire country seats would drown out Labour, and the Lib Dems would pass by them and seize the third seat. Lib Dems were the runner-ups in both of the non-Swindon seats in the 4-seater, so my theory had some grounding. But Swindon has half of the seat so - maybe it was completely off base.
However, I lacked internet access at the time and thus couldn't check for sure.
 
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