Alternate Electoral Maps II

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Aaaaasima, May 22, 2017.

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  1. Utgard96 basically a load of twaddle about freedom

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    What "Democratic-Republican ticket"?
     
  2. CELTICEMPIRE Well-Known Member

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    John Tyler ran on a Democratic-Republican ticket in 1844 in order to drum up support for annexation before supporting Polk.
     
  3. Oppo Nationalize Five Guys

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    Tyler formed and ran as the nominee of the "Democratic-Republican Party" but dropped out once the pro-annexation Polk got the nomination.
     
  4. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    1968 if Wallace had run a much better campaign and picked a better running mate:


    [​IMG]

    He takes a huge amount of support from Humphrey, leading to Nixon sweeping every state outside of the South, with the exceptions of Minnesota, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
     
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  5. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Likewise, here's what I think would have happened if Wallace had been the Democratic nominee in 1968 (assuming no left-wing third party)


    [​IMG]

    Wallace wins every Southern state except for Oklahoma and Kentucky, but otherwise he gets absolutely blown out everywhere else. Nixon probably wins the popular vote by more than he did against McGovern in '72, despite Wallace's somewhat respectable EV total. the closest states are West Virginia and Oklahoma.
     
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  6. jonnguy2016 Well-Known Member

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    If Wallace had been the nominee Humphrey, McCarthy, or McGovern run on an independent liberal campaign
     
  7. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Yes, but I think it's more fun to imagine there is no left-wing third party, as this would likely lead to Nixon winning staunchly Democratic areas like Boston, NYC, and even San Francisco.
     
  8. Utgard96 basically a load of twaddle about freedom

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    "Votez escroc, pas facho"
     
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  9. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    That should have been Nixon's campaign slogan in this scenario :openedeyewink:
     
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  10. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    And here's the county map. outside of the south, Wallace wins fewer than 50 counties.

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. MoralisticCommunist Banned

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    The Seventh Party System: Part XXVII
    Map of the United States
    Part I - Metropotamia
    Part II - Alta California
    Part III - North Carolina
    Part IV - New Jersey
    Part V - Adams
    Part VI - Alabama
    Part VII - Rhode Island
    Part VIII - Sequoyah
    Part IX - Assenisipia
    Part X - East Florida
    Part XI - Tennessee
    Part XII - Kansas
    Part XIII - Dakota
    Part XIV - Arizona
    Part XV - Delaware
    Part XVI - Oregon
    Part XVII - Ozark
    Part XVIII - New Hampshire
    Part XIX - Western Connecticut
    Part XX - New York
    Part XXI - Santo Domingo
    Part XXII - South Carolina
    Part XXIII - Baja California
    Part XXIV - Chersonesus
    Part XXV - Canal Zone Territory
    Part XXVI - West Florida



    Missouri is the Populist's stronghold state, with the state having the party's home ever since it's founding in the 1880s by Governor Weaver.

    While initially distrustful of the Labor party for their focus on the cities and their neglect of rural issues they eventually realized how they had much more in common than they had differences, and began running joint ticket for the good of all workers, rural and urban. This strategy proved itself to be incredibly successful, with the ticket winning many electoral votes in 1896 and even coming in second place in 1900 and 1904. Finally, in 1908 the joint ticket managed to succeed in electing former House Minority leader Theodore Roosevelt to the Presidency, marking the first time since before the Civil War that a third party candidate managed to gain the Oval Office. Despite facing an unruly Congress Theodore Roosevelt managed to cut deals with liberal Republicans and Democrats in pass some moderate reforms, which did wonders for the economy. He also lead the US through the troubling times of the WWII, securing victory against the dastardly French once again. Ultimately winning a total of three terms, a record at the time, Theodore Roosevelt's failing health forced him to decline running for President in 1920, giving Republicans the perfect opportunity to seize back the White House.

    Suffering throughout the 1920s due to a lack of government assistance during the Dust Bowl the Populists were more than happy to back the National Union party and put FDR in the White House. The harmony between Labor and Populist elements would end, however, upon the breakup of the National Union party in 1972. With each party blaming the other for contributing to the death of the National Union the 70s and 80s would characterized by Republican control of Missouri as the Populists and Labor fought each other more than the conservatives. However in 1993 the National Populist party and National Labor party managed to make a historic agreement, with each party agreeing not to run in certain states to give the left their best shot at beating the Republicans' dominance. Thus 1994 would lead to a surge in Populist and Labor support across America, allowing the Populists to enter government for the first time since the Conservative Revolution.

    Ever since the Populists and Labor have been in an eternal and many more states have seen their Labor parties or Populist parties step down in favor of the other. Nevertheless, there still do exist certain ideologically differences between Labor and the Populists, such as opposition to same-sex unions, vehement defense of gun rights, and an absolute refusal to allow the sale of any beverages with over 6% alcohol by volume. However since they still share the same economic values the bond between the two parties only continues to grow stronger.

    This year's election was at first a nail bitter for the Populists, who having lost seats in both 2013 and 2015 feared a loss of their absolute majority to the rising tide of the far left and far right. Yet in the end the Populists ended up gaining a net of two seats, reducing the Democrats to only three counties while the Green party only managed to gain a meager three seats. The only surprise was the Constitution, which managed to break out in two counties for the first time in Missourian history. Yet in the big cities they remain mostly absent so their gains were easily mitigated by the continued hemorrhaging of the GOP.

    Government:
    Populists - Being created in this very state, Missouri has remained the heart of the Populist party for well over a century. Committed to the protection of rural interests, they have also taken over Labor's role of protecting the urban worker ever since their alliance in 1993. And with the GOP continuing the lose seats in ever election since 2009 the Populists have managed to consolidate their control over both rural and urban areas.

    Opposition:
    Republicans - The main opposition to the Populists, they have fell enormously from the plurality they gained in 2005. Not helping their desperate situation is the continued growth of the Green party, which has consumed their entire youth vote and left them with an ever shrinking base of suburban professionals.
    Greens - The left wing opposition to the Populists, while they may be slightly to the right economically the are much further to the left socially, advocating policies as radical as gay marriage and legalization of liquor. With most young people seeing the Populists inability to break away from Prohibition era morals the Greens have gained massive following in college campuses across the state and welcome fleeing Republicans with open arms.
    Democrats - The party the South the democratic party continues to hold a small following in the southern edges of the state as a leftover of the Conservative Revolution, however unlike in most states that support has started to decline once again as their old base is dying off.
    Constitution - Growing in Missouri just like in most states it has had a difficult time gaining a foothold in the state given the widespread support for the Populist party among Constitution's usual demographic. Yet by emphasizing the failure of the Populists to solve the Second Great Depression they have managed to cast enough doubt on some Missourians to make them give the religious right a chance.

    [​IMG]

    Credit for the basemap goes to Chicxulub.
     
  12. Harlow Some kinda socialist

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    Successful Greens, but economically right-wing? I'll take it.
     
  13. Baconheimer Berserker of Chaos

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    I'd flip Arkansas and Virginia.
     
  14. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    My map is basically Wallace's best case scenario. In any case, it's hard to see him even being competitive in most states outside the Deep South.
     
  15. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    [​IMG]

    One last map. Nixon vs Wallace in '72, again without a liberal third party. Nixon absolutely wipes Wallace off the face of the earth in the electoral sense, getting over 70% in every Northeastern state and winning many areas that hadn't voted for a Republican in decades. Wallace wins Mississippi (about 56-43) and his home state of Alabama (about 65-35), but otherwise the only other states he comes close to winning are Louisiana (R+5), Georgia (R+8), and Arkansas (R+10). Nixon becomes the first (and last) Republican to win the District of Columbia, winning it 52-46 over Wallace.
     
  16. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    [​IMG]


    Just for fun, a 10% swing to LBJ in 1964. he picks up Arizona and Georgia compared to the OTL results.
     
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  17. Bjornhattan World's Worst Psephologist

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    So I've went district by district based on the ingame results (rather than the counties). The numbers are easier to analyse if you go off the results in the game.

    You wouldn't even come close to sweeping all the districts, in fact my spreadsheet estimates you'd lose around 67. These results were surprising to me but then again there's a lot of districts Trump won by 30% or more in our election. These would have too big a majority to fall.

    In the district you would lose most heavily, Texas' 13th, Trump won 80-17, a margin of 63%. You won Texas by 17 points compared to Clinton losing by 9 OTL, but that would only reduce the margin by 26. Therefore Trump wins the district by my reckoning by a margin of about 37% (67.7 for Trump, 31.0 for Clinton).

    In many cases some of the close states saw huge Democratic landslides in one or two districts. In Tennessee only two districts voted Democratic but both saw majorities of 50% or more. The Oklahoma City district voted Democratic by 20% even though the state overall went Republican. Do note that this only uses the numbers and doesn't take into account that Eastern Oklahoma might vote more Democratic (but even then the effect would have to be huge to overturn the kind of victories Trump got there).

    And interestingly, a strip less than a mile of wide of Sheffield Lake in Ohio is the only way to get from coast to coast using only Clinton districts in this scenario.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2017
  18. AJustMonster Indoctrinated into being Canadian

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    I think the Greens are still economically left wing. It's more that they're slightly less left on the spectrum than the social democratic parties in that aspect.
     
  19. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    A map for the 2020 Democratic primaries, can you guess who the candidates are? (Note that there are more than 2 candidates, but only 2 win states)



    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Rosa Luxemburg Homosatanist

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    Elizabeth Warren and John Bel Edwards would be my guess for the two main candidates
     
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