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(originally in “pods:non-historical pods”, originally started by “jolo”)

Points of Divergence : Non-historical PODs

Description

Most PoDs focus on events as they happened (the more spectacular the event, the more people tend to think about alternative outcomes). But there are quite a few times where history could have taken completely different turns more or less “out of the blue”. Wars could have started much earlier or later, technologies could have developed completely differently, and so on. Most wars and other developments started from rather minor events. Such events could have happened at any time.

PoDs
  • Earlier WWI due to Morocco crisis, against Russia in 1905, or at any other time.
  • WWII started not by Germany (in Europe), but by another country - Germany trying to unite with Austria in 1934 and Italy intervening, Britain trying to stop communist Russia from liberating her colonies, and so on.
  • A Later American Civil War, usualy by giving more concessions to the South.
  • A Earlier American Civil War, some “sparking points” are often the South Carolina Nullification Crisis of 1832, or the Compromise of 1850 falling though.

(originally in “alternate history:alternate political leaders”, originally started by “Akiyama”)

Alternate Political Leaders

United States

Presidential elections are held every four years.

2004

OTL result
50.7% - George W. Bush and Dick Cheney (R)
48.3% - John Kerry and John Edwards (D)
1.0% - all others

Possible Democrat candidates
Most likely: John Kerry (OTL candidate), Howard Dean, John Edwards, Al Gore
Less likely: Joe Biden, Carol Braun, Wesley Clark, Dick Gephardt, Bob Graham, Gary Hart, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, Al Sharpton

Japan

The Japanese political system is similar to that of the United Kingdom. The leader of the largest party in the House of Representatives serves as Prime Minister. The monarch, advised by the Prime Minister, decides when elections are held; generally every four years. The electoral system is a mixture in which single member constituencies are elected by a first-past-the-post system and multi-member constituencies by proportional representation.

Since 1955, when the American occupation ended, the centre-right Liberal Democrats have won almost every election. Check out their cool logo! *link

Statistics are from Psephos. *link
The percentages are averages, taken by multiplying the percentage vote for each type of seat by the number of that type of seat, and then dividing the total by the total number of seats.

2001 Liberal Democrat leadership election

Yoshiro Mori, the Prime Minister, was one of Japan's most unpopular and incompetent prime ministers. He resigned in 2001. The subsequent leadership contest was contested by the former PM Ryutaro Hashimoto and the charismatic maverick Junichiro Koizumi. Mr Koizumi won.

2003 general election

40.7% - Liberal Democrats - Junichiro Kiozumi (237 seats)
37.0% - Democrats - Naoto Kan (177 seats)
6.4% - Komeito (34 seats)
8.0% - Communists (9 seats)
7.9% - all others (23 seats)

2005 general election

44.3% - Liberal Democrats - Junichiro Koizumi (296 seats)
34.4% - Democrats - Katsuya Okada (113 seats)
5.9% - Komeito (31 seats)
7.2% - Communists (9 seats)
8.2% - all others (31 seats)

2006 Liberal Democrat leadership election

Junichiro Koizumi's five-year term as party leader ended in 2006 and he decided not to stand in the next leadership contest. The candidates were Shinzo Abe, Taro Aso and Sadakazu Tanigaki. Yasuo Fukuda, a possible contender, decided not to run. Shinzo Abe, Mr Koizumi's favoured successor, was the winner.

United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom the leader of the largest party in the House of Commons becomes Prime Minister. The monarch, advised by the Prime Minister, decides when general elections are held; generally every four or five years. The first-past-the-post electoral system means a small majority in the percentage of votes can translate into a large majority in the number of seats in the House of Commons.

2001 general election

Labour under Tony Blair was seen as having done a good job of running the country.

40.7% - Labour - Tony Blair (412)
31.7% - Conservatives - William Hague (166)
18.3% - Liberal Democrats - Charles Kennedy (52)
9.3% - all others (28)

2001 Conservative leadership election

After the 2001 general election, William Hague resigned as leader of the Conservative party. Iain Duncan Smith, a right-winger, won the subsequent leadership election.

Most likely: Ken Clark, Michael Portillo
Less likely: Michael Ancram, David Davis, Iain Duncan Smith (OTL winner), Michael Howard, Francis Maude, John Redwood, Malcolm Rifkind, Ann Widdecombe

2003 Conservative leadership non-election

Iain Duncan Smith proved to be a poor leader of the Conservative Party, and in 2003 lost a vote of confidence by the party's MPs. Michael Howard was elected unopposed as the new leader.

Other possible candidates might have been Michael Ancram, Ken Clark, David Davis, Oliver Letwin, Theresa May or Michael Portillo. David Cameron was an unknown prior to the 2005 general election, after which he became shadow education secretary.

2005 general election

Blair had become less popular, partly due to the Iraq war. However, as Conservative leader, Michael Howard was lacking in charisma.

35.3% - Labour - Tony Blair (356 seats)
32.3% - Conservatives - Michael Howard (198 seats)
22.1% - Liberal Democrats - Charles Kennedy (62 seats)
10.1% - Others (30 seats)

2005 Conservative leadership election

After losing the 2005 general election, the Conservatives elected a new leader, the little-known David Cameron, who presented himself as a modern, progressive candidate.

Most likely: Ken Clarke, David Davis
Less likely: Michael Ancram, David Cameron (OTL winner), Liam Fox, Boris Johnson, Oliver Letwin, Theresa May, George Osborne

Alternative Labour leaders, 1994 to 2007

During this period, John Prescott was deputy leader of the Labour Party. Had there have been a leadership contest for some reason, the following people might have become leader.

Gordon Brown (most likely), David Blunkett (2001-2004), Robin Cook (1994-2005), Alan Milburn (1999-2007), John Prescott (1994-2006), John Reid (2002-2007), Jack Straw

Canada

Like the United Kingdom, Canada's prime minister is leader of the majority political party in the House of Commons. Major political parties include the Liberals, the Conservatives, the New Democratic Party (NDP), the Green Party, and the Bloc Quebecois, with majorities usually being exchanged between the Liberals and Conservatives; the NDP and Bloc Quebecois usually constitute the second-highest majorities after the Liberals and Conservatives, and while the Green Party currently has no seat in the House of Commons, it is popular among Canadian hippies, retired highschool teachers, and university students. The Bloc Quebecois runs in, and seeks to represent, only the province of Quebec, with its sizeable French-speaking and generally independent-minded French-Canadian population.

Party Leadership

STEPHEN HARPER: Leader of the Conservative Party and current Prime Minister. Largely shuns the public spotlight, looks something like a robot, but as such leads his supporters to see him as a 'strong leader'.

STEPHANE DION: Leader of the Liberal Party and leader of the official opposition in the House of Commons. Ridiculed by the Conservatives for his bumbling nature and speech impediment which is actually a French accent.

JACK LAYTON: Leader of the NDP and vocal opponent of everything proposed by the Liberals and Conservatives.

GILLES DUCEPPE: Leader of the Bloc Quebecois; in keeping with the BQ leadership's traditional haughty nature.

… and who cares what the name of the Green Party's leader is.

2006 Elections

Conservatives: 36.3% (124 seats)

Liberals: 30.2% (102 seats)

NDP: 17.5% (29 seats)

BQ: 10.5% (51 seats)

Green: 4.5% (2 seats- members have since become Independents)

2008 Elections upcoming . . .

Germany

OTL candidates are always listed at the first place under “Alternate winners”.

2005 Elections

OTL winner: Angela Merkel (CDU)

Alternate winners: Gerhard Schröder (SPD, incumbent), Edmund Stoiber (CSU)

2002 Elections

OTL winner: Gerhard Schröder (SPD, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Edmund Stoiber (CSU), Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) - without the OTL scandal, Roland Koch (CDU)

1998 Elections

OTL winner: Gerhard Schröder (SPD)

Alternate winners: Helmut Kohl (CDU, incumbent), Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) - if Kohl had let him

1994 Elections

OTL winner: Helmut Kohl (CDU, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Rudolf Scharping (SPD), Gerhard Schröder (SPD), Björn Engholm (SPD) - without the OTL scandal, Oskar Lafontaine (then SPD)

1990 Elections

OTL winner: Helmut Kohl (CDU, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Oskar Lafontaine (then SPD), Johannes Rau (SPD)

1987 Elections

OTL winner: Helmut Kohl (CDU, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Johannes Rau (SPD), Hans-Jochen Vogel (SPD)

1983 Elections

OTL winner: Helmut Kohl (CDU, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Hans-Jochen Vogel (SPD), Johannes Rau (SPD)

1980 Elections

OTL winner: Helmut Schmidt (SPD, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Franz Josef Strauß (CSU), Helmut Kohl (CDU)

1976 Elections

OTL winner: Helmut Schmidt (SPD, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Helmut Kohl (CDU), Franz Josef Strauß (CSU)

1972 Elections

OTL winner: Willy Brandt (SPD, incumbent)

Alternate winners: Rainer Barzel (CDU), Franz Josef Strauß (CSU)



backup_repository.txt · Last modified: 2013/09/03 06:41 by Petike