Carving up Russia and China

Inspired by this thread
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=324380#post324380
and from having read about 'The Foresight War'
I got to thinking

Initially an ASB type question - if by 2050 the world gets to the point when they wish China and Russia had not existed

Then, a more pure alternate history question - how could this be ?

I decided to take two approaches
1. - that the Crimean War goes on into 1856 and Britain, France and gathering allies inflict defeat on Russia and partial dismemberment
2. - that the European powers dismember China in the late nineteenth century

I wondered about the Great Powers 100 years later
- Japan looks a good bet. It could have swathes of both Russia and China as part of its empire
- India maybe
- Britain, Germany, France as per now really
but how about other European states ? A better future for the Habsburgs ? Renewed greatness for Sweden?
- anything in Central Asia, maybe Khiva or Kashgaria or even the Ottomans stretching over the continent?

Grey Wolf

OK well Japan could get Primorsky, Khabarovsk, Kamchataka, and Koryakia provinces, as well as the whole of Sakhalin Islands. I know these are the modern provinces, but its the best I have now. They could also nab Magadan.

Though Mongolia isn't a true power due to its size, it could probably get a few border provinces of both Russia and China.

The Ottomans could begin its "Second" Empire by taking the Caucasus region of Russia and the land around the Caspian Sea, extending its Empire all the way through to Uighuristan. Pretty much uniting the Turkish people under the Sultan.

Yakutia would probably be set up as an independent Republic, same deal with Siberia. Russia wouldnt extend beyond the Ural Mountains. You could probably break European Russia down into three or four nations. Not including the ethnic countries like the Ukraine.

The United States might want to get in on this deal too, but depending on your POD. If its before 1867, then the Brits get Alaska and Chukotka adding them to Canada, effectively giving the Empire control over the Bering Straight.

As for China, Tibet will likely become independent. The French will lay a claim to the southeastern provinces, with Germany, and Britain claiming the more northern provinces, stretching deep inland. Japan would go after Manchuria and Korea. If its before the Spanish-American War, the US might press for a port city in China, perhaps Qingdao or Xiamen. Spain and Italy are long shots of trying to carve up China, but they "might" be players.

In the "Dropshot" war plan the U.S. State department developed around 1948, they seemed to contemplate dividing up the USSR if they lost a conventional WW3 with the US, but there wasn't any set plans for what such a division would look like. The bullet points in the plan only say that there may or may not be multiple states, and if a Soviet state still exists, it will be the weakest state in the area.

Interesting ideas Lonnie

The way I see it is that the obvious divisions are the loss of Finland, Poland (probably with Byeolorossia and Volhynia), the Baltics, the Ukraine, and the Caucasus. Exact spoils remain for the victors to fight over

Less obvious divisions could go the way you say, though Japan is probably going to get in on the act later, attacking a rump Russia. Japan would probably lay claim to Sakhalin and the Kurils at once, since it already thought they were hers. This is pre-Meiji and power-projection isn't great. Curiously, it might provide the kind of prestige to allow the Bakufu to reform successfully.

In Central Asia, I could see Ottoman influence across MOST of the Caucasus (after all, it was their aim) though Georgia could be a problem ? Getting a contiguous border with the lands on the other side of the Caspian would require the Ottomans either to take the Volga estuary around Astrakhan in the North, or to take land from Persia in the South. Many of the Central Asian states professed theoretical subordination to the Ottomans, and if theyw ere in a position to advance these claims then Khiva, Bokhara, Khokand and even Kashgaria could be in play. In addition, lands recently (for the 1850s) annexed in Kazakhstan etc could become unannexed and available. The empire might be rather like how the Ottomans ruled North Africa.

Rump Russia would be severely down. No doubt it would try to come back, attacking the perceived weakest of its enemies - perhaps the Ottoman hold over Central Asia. This could bring in Britain from India, and lead to joint British-Ottoman incursions North. If we have this occur around the same time as the 'Scramble for China' then we could see Britain in Tibet, as well as up the Yangtse, independence as you suggest for the Mongolian khanates, Japan in Manchuria and in Eastern Siberia, France in the South, Germany perhaps in Shantung, Italy and Japan maybe contesting Fukien etc

Even Austria and perhaps Spain could get in on the act, Austria certainly wanted to in OTL

And yes, I guess with Russia taking a hammering in the late 1850s, even though there was initially an accord not to take the war to the North American continent, in victory Britain would take Alaska and quite possibly the other side of the Bering Straits

Grey Wolf

Becoming citizens of the British Empire probably would have been favorable for the Russians living in Alaska and on the other side of the Bering Straight. With Russia in shambles, its unlikely that they would worry about Alaska. The best options for them would join the US or join the Empire. The state of the US in the 1850s would not allow Alaska to be annexed, and Britain has a history of respecting other cultures, perhaps we will see a nineteenth century form of the Quebec Act for Russians in Alaska, respecting their religion and language.

Britain wouldnt exactly violate the terms of the agreement if Alaskans favored becoming subjects of Queen Victoria and asked to join the Empire. Very plausible, perhaps in a few years if Alaska is successful, more Russians will perhaps move there instead of the US in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

I knew I missed something out - what happens in the Russian interior. I very much doubt you will be seeing any republics there ! As far as examples such as Kashgar go it would seem that a Muslim noble can claim power and become an emir etc by getting recognition from the Sultan in Istanbul. Thus, any Islamic peoples in the interior would be encouraged by Britain and/or the Ottomans to break away and form their own states under their own rulers, either tribal nobility or a strongman who can become an emir etc.

Grey Wolf

Would Ukraine be allowed to become independent ? The Ottomans would be looking for the Tatars of the Crimea to reform their own state and be admitted to the empire under their own ruler. Since the Tatars succeeded in achieving this for a while in 1918 its likely in this timeline

Ukraine proper does not include the Crimea, but would include the lands over which any Austrian armies had marched. Given that it seems likely that a reborn Poland would be a compromise between Austria and France, and probably see a Habsburg ruler (Maximilian was suggested OTL during the early 1860s Polish uprising) then Austria probably cedes Galicia to the reborn Poland. I would certainly think they would want something in return ! Annexing the Western Ukraine as somewhere to settle German emigrants could well appeal.

In addition, a reborn Poland is also unlikely to want to see an independent Ukraine. There is the potential for a very large Polish state here, covering Russian and Austrian Poland, White Russia and into the Ukraine.

The situation of the Baltics is more confusing with no united Germany. Prussia is the dominant near-German power but one can certainly imagine Austria, as well as Britain and France having a say, and maybe even Sweden. Is there potential for Sweden to retake Estonia and the Southern shore of the Gulf of Finland ?

Grey Wolf

If we take things to an extreme-ish state of affairs after the extended Crimean War, then rump Russia would still have Archangel in the North, but have lost the Kola Peninsular, Karelia and the Southern shore of the Baltic. What happens to Saint Petersburg ? Could it become a Swedish city ? The base for Sweden's administration of their new provinces ?

Rump Russia is centred on Moscow, includes Astrakhan and has an outlet onto the Black Sea at Nicolaev as yet, retaining the Eastern Ukraine

Weakened in Central Asia, expelled from the Caucasus, stripped of Alaska etc, rump Russia also never makes good any claim to the Amur Maritime provinces which remain Chinese

This rump Russia will either attempt to reform or turn inwards upon itself, fighting out civil wars and succession crises before a new war further down the line which will consign it to the waste-bin of history

By that time some significant events will have happened in Europe, but would they mirror OTL in any way ? Whether they do or not would affect the exact state of how the 'Scramble for China' plays out

Grey Wolf

A longer Crimean War would end at the period which in OTL saw the beginning of Italian unification, German unification etc. It also saw the slide to civil war in the USA but I am not sure how much this woud be changed. It is POSSIBLE of course that Britain's expansion over Alaska and control of both sides of the Bering Strait would alter perceptions, but as its a long-term deep-seated issue it seems likely that the American Civil War will happen on schedule. What seems seriously UNLIKELY is any Mexican adventure - Maximilian is King of Poland, Napoleon III has his great victory in the East, the Habsburgs have new territories to administer.

Now, Piedmont-Sardinia hoped to gain international recognition and support for their Italian cause by contributing on the world scene to the war. However, this is likely to have been over-shadowed by the magnitude of events in the East, and in Napoleon III's mind by the resurrection of Poland. Is their appetite for supporting Piedmont against Austria, who is a major partner in Poland and the East ? I would think not at this time.

Denmark's incorporation of Schleswig and Holstein is going to be an intriguing event. One can see the Danes gambling that with Prussia and Austria busy in the East there is a good chance they can get away with it. I see Prussia as being the suzerain of a Baltic duchy (Latvia essentially), with perhaps an independent Lithuania, and maybe with Estonia-Eastwards under Swedish suzerainty.

So. no war in Italy and Denmark getting away without a war ? What then is the course of action over the next decade or so ? Or would Prussia still go for Denmark, but Austria be less likely to join in ? Or would the constitutional route that in OTL Austria and Prussia short-circuited occur ? This is that the entire German Confederation makes a decision and acts in concert. OTL Prussia and Austria agreed on bi-lateral action. Perhaps with greater commitments they leave it to the whole of the German Confederation to come to an agreement rather than act precipitously ?

Grey Wolf

Without wanting to plot the entire history until the 'Scramble for China' one does need to know WHO is around to do the scrambling ! Intriguingly, without the Italian wars of OTL what if Garibaldi takes up a Union command in the American Civil War ? This could then have an effect afterwards, a great Union general casting his eyes back towards his still-divided homeland ?

In OTL this period was an age of war, so if we keep up this allegory, what if Sweden decides to back Denmark in any conflict with the German Confederation ? One could see a slower start to action by the Confederation, Denmark having a greater chance to take control and keep it in the duchies, and to defend against any potential attack. Austria may already have frigates in the Baltic after the Great European War (Crimean) especially considering Poland, and whatever solution has been reached with regard to Lithuania.

If Sweden backs Denmark, then this could lead to the over-balancing of Sweden's over-stretched position, perhaps the loss of Norway to independence due to the centre of gravity having slipped to the East. Maybe Sweden's intervention and German tardiness results in a draw, a partition of the duchies with one going to Denmark and one a full member of the German Confederation. Schleswig is the Northern one and Holstein the Southern one but I cannot find out the exact border between them ?

So, we already have a change - an independent Holstein and an independent Norway

Grey Wolf

There thus exist several potential flashpoints between Prussia and Austria in Germany. One of these is Holstein and Prussia's desire to acquire control over it Another would be the situation in the Baltic Duchy, where Prussia is suzerain but not sovereign. Attempts to develop Riga as a Prussian naval base may well alarm the Austrians, as well as the Swedes. And then there is Lithuania which one could imagine has become an independent state where Austrian and Prussian influence is supposedly equal. Poland, with an Austrian Archduke on the throne, would be interested in gaining the upper hand over Lithuania to secure access to the Baltic. Prussia would be interested in stopping them, and in turn expanding its own influence along the coast.

The exact spark does not necessarily matter. Let us posit that Prussia is the aggressor in fact, that the German Confederation largely takes Austria's side and that the theatre of war includes the new states in the East.

Thus, this Austro-Prussian War of the late 1860s is unlikely to last only a few weeks ! There is also the position of France to consider, with potential designs on the Rhineland, and of Piedmont-Sardinia with its eyes cast covetously over Austria's Italian possessions. We could therefore see in one go a combination of the Austro-Prussian and Franco-Prussian Wars, with several fronts across Europe. A new European War.

Prussia's position is not great, even if Sweden after her recent mauling remains neutral. Maybe Prussia encourages rump Russia to try something in the East ? Maybe Piedmont-Sardinia has some success in the South ? It would be a good time for Garibaldi, hero of the US Civil War to return to Italy and proclaim the Italian cause. Uprisings and a national movement, maybe an invasion of the Two Sicilies with Union veterans of Italian origin ?

Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark remain neutral. But it is a neutrality dependent on the belligerents not antagonising them. Russia distracts Polish forces and some Austrian ones but is defeated. France invades the Rhineland. The German states which cleave to Austria are weakened by defeat to Prussia or defection upon seeing France advance deep within Germany.

Perhaps the peace treaty sees gains and losses on both sides ? Prussia annexes the Mecklenburgs, Hannover, Brunswick, Oldenburg, Holstein and maybe the Saxon duchies. France breaks the Prussian Rhineland territories away from Prussia. The German Confederation would be against either direct French rule or the establishment of a puppet state under French auspices. Instead we might see territorial aggrandizement for Bavaria (from the Palatinate), Hesse-Darmstadt, Hesse-Kassel, Baden and Nassau. Bavaria annexes Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen. Saxony maybe makes some gains in the Thuringian duchies. Maybe a Wesphalian grand duchy is created too ?

In the South, Piedmont-Sardinia annexes Lombardy, the Central Italian states etc but neither the Papal States, nor the Two Sicilies which have held out with French aid. Perhaps Garibaldi sets up Sicily as an independent republic ? France takes Haute Savoie and Nice as its compensation.

Grey Wolf

Thus the German Confederation still exists at the start of the 1870s but has fewer members - Prussia, Austria, Bavaria, Saxony, Wurttemburg, Baden, Hesse-Darmstadt, Hesse-Kassel, Nassau and the new Westphalia state.

Austro-Prussian rivalry continues, but it becomes clear that the results of the war mean that the Confederation as a meaningful entity is dead. Prussia has dominated the North of Germany and Austria shares with France the domination of the South. Later in the decade, as Prussia declares itself an empire, the Confederation is dissolved and a new League created, catering only to the South, with Austria on the fringes.

German emigration in this period goes equally abroad and to the Austrian Ukrainian territories. Prussian emigration may well go to the Baltic Duchy too.

Napoleon III dies and is succeeded by Napoleon IV who has a lot to live up to if he is to equal his father's greatness.

There is ofcourse no 1878 war. Rump Russia, defeated in the Second European Great War turns inwards. Bulgaria remains a part of the Ottoman Empire as does Bosnia-Hercegovina in fact as well as name.

Grey Wolf

The situation in Italy remains unstable, and also Hungary where nationalists will have seen the Poles get their own state. I envisaged that the Second Great European War (for want of a better name) by ending in a draw did not result in a Hungarian uprising. But does this mean that Hungary is still under military rule ? It would seem to be quite a stretch on Habsburg resources. Perhaps this ties into Italy well ?

Maybe the death of Garibaldi in 1882 is the catalyst ? His Sicilian Republic is weakened by his death, and this leads the Two Sicilies to attempt to reconquer its lost territory. This leads to intervention by Piedmont. now calling itself the Kingdom of Italy and a war covering the Italian peninsular. I doubt Napoleon IV can resist getting involved.

Maybe there have been serious Franco-Austrian tensions in Southern Germany, and in getting involved in Italy, Napoleon IV sees the chance to do some damage to Austria's strength and prestige. Thus, abandoning his father's position of supporting the Two Sicilies, Napoleon IV backs Piedmontese Italy, and a French army invades Venetia on their behalf. This policy is not universally popular at home as the Papal States lie in the path of Italian expansion. It is a messy affair, but Austria loses Venice to the French, and sees a Hungarian Uprising affect its security in the rear. In the South, Italian forces over-run the Papal States and defeat the Two Sicilies.

The majority of the Papal States, Venetia, Naples and Sicily are incorporated into the Kingdom of Italy. Rome holds out for the Pope.

The Hungarian Uprising is a serious problem for the Habsburgs as Hungary lies between Austria and her Ukrainian territories. A compromise is necessary and the Dual Monarchy is formed of the joint crowns of Austria and Hungary. Emperor Franz-Josef abdicates and Rudolf becomes the first emperor of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy.

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf said:

In OTL this period was an age of war, so if we keep up this allegory, what if Sweden decides to back Denmark in any conflict with the German Confederation ? One could see a slower start to action by the Confederation, Denmark having a greater chance to take control and keep it in the duchies, and to defend against any potential attack. Austria may already have frigates in the Baltic after the Great European War (Crimean) especially considering Poland, and whatever solution has been reached with regard to Lithuania.

If Sweden backs Denmark, then this could lead to the over-balancing of Sweden's over-stretched position, perhaps the loss of Norway to independence due to the centre of gravity having slipped to the East. Maybe Sweden's intervention and German tardiness results in a draw, a partition of the duchies with one going to Denmark and one a full member of the German Confederation. Schleswig is the Northern one and Holstein the Southern one but I cannot find out the exact border between them ?

So, we already have a change - an independent Holstein and an independent Norway

Grey Wolf

Click to expand...

A extremly rough guideline of the border between Slesvig and Holstein is the Kiel Canal (mostley a bit to the north but anyway... )

A independent Norway at this point is IMHO to early. Norwegian nationalism did not realy start until 1880.

The death of King Willem III of the Netherlands with his only heir his young daughter leads to a crisis over Luxembourg. By the family compact, the Duke of Nassau would also become Grand Duke of Luxembourg. The replacement of Dutch rule in this border state with that of a minor German prince is not appealing to France, whilst Prussia is keen to effect a pay-off, the retrocession of Nassau's territory that it took from Prussia in return for Prussian recognition of the accession.

Austria-Hungary's Emperor Rudolf is keen to flex his country's muscles. One can imagine an alliance of the new monarchs as Rudolf and Wilhelm II of Prussia set aside past differences for a pan-German position. France's support for Italy has alienated Austria from its previous co-operation in Southern Germany, and Rudolf sees the chance to drive the French out, even if the cost is some reassumption of Prussian power in the centre.

France's best bet to not see a German prince in Luxembourg is either to purchase the Grand Duchy off the Netherlands or to back those in the Netherlands calling for the retention of the Grand Duchy, Salic Law or no Salic Law. I envisage that Napoleon IV attempts the first but is not successful. Instead, he comes out in favour of the Netherlands retaining the state, with his fall-back position that Adolf must abdicate his Nassau throne if he is to accept the Luxembourg one. Prussia and Austria pressure him not to do so.

One can see an Ems Telegramme state of affairs here, that leads to a Third European War, this time with the Netherlands and France against the German states. Napoleon IV has over-played his hand, and in search of allies must cave in to Italian demands for a free hand on Rome in return for the launching of a campaign aimed at the Southern Tyrol and the Trentino.

Napoleon IV's other diplomacy is clumsy and neither Denmark nor Sweden is interested in opening a Northern front with no guarantee that France will be in any position to help them.

One can see the defeat of France, Prussian reacquisition of territory from Nassau by agreement and conquest of the Westphalian grand duchy. Adolf becomes Grand Duke of Nassau-Luxembourg. Perhaps the Netherlands loses Limburg too - to whom ?

Italy gets Rome but is defeated in the North and no change occurs to the territory of Austria-Hungary.

In France, Napoleon IV is forced to abdicate and Louis Philippe II ascends the French throne, living only to 1894 when he is succeeded by his son Louis Philippe III

Grey Wolf

Red said:

A extremly rough guideline of the border between Slesvig and Holstein is the Kiel Canal (mostley a bit to the north but anyway... )

A independent Norway at this point is IMHO to early. Norwegian nationalism did not realy start until 1880.

Click to expand...

Thanks

As it happens, it doesn't affect the timeline that came afterwards whether it is at this point in the 1860s or later in the 1880s so it would certainly fit in the latter period, and maybe explain why Sweden is distracted at some crucial times

Grey Wolf

At this point the alternate European timeline runs into the 'Scramble for China'.

The players are thus :-

Britain
Rump Russia
Japan
Restored Orleanist France
Prussian Empire
Austria-Hungary
Spain
Italy

The Chinese situation soon becomes caught up in Russia's attempt to reassert herself, and Britain and the Ottoman Empire's joint interest in preventing this. Thus we get the twin conflicts, of the collapse of Imperial China on the one hand, and a war to the death against rump Russia on the other.

Napoleon III and Napoleon IV can be expected to have continued the OTL policy of penetration into Indo-China, but perhaps the European wars and crises have prevented Tongking from happening at this stage. Maybe it is a move under Louis Philippe III, an attempt to start his reign with a success

It can thus be a 1894 spark to the general carve-up. Combining the Sino-French War with the Sino-Japanese War spells serious bad times for China. As French fleets ravage Fukien and Formosa, the Japanese land in Korea, take control of the Yellow Sea and besiege Wei-Hai-Wei. Russia maybe gets involved in some way trying to aid China - though without the Amur Maritime provinces they are coming from Ayan on the Sea of Okhotsk and from Petropavlosk in Kamchatka. Perhaps Russia's price for aiding China is the cession of the Maritime Provinces and this is too much for Britain to accept ?

Wilhelm II's Prussian Empire and Rudolf's Austria-Hungary are hungry powers, and one can certainly say the same about the Kingdom of Italy. With China tottering, and with an Anglo-French alliance aimed initially at denying Russia any influence, but then at dominating China for themselves, the other powers feel that they may be being left out.

Maybe Britain finds in Louis Philippe III a person they can do business with, which they never found in Napoleon IV and did not have time to work out with the aged Louis Philippe II.

The 'Scramble For China' begins

Grey Wolf

Japan's main thrust into China is into Manchuria, landing on the Liaotung peninsular, Lushun/Port Arthur etc. This advance would also include a move from Korea into the Maritime Provinces and the need to blockade both Ayan and Petropavlosk.

Maybe a British expeditionary force comes down from British Far Eastern Asia (the West side of the Bering Strait) and from British Alaska/Canada to make a landing in Kamchatka and assault Petropavlosk from the rear

The Prussian Empire makes its play in the Shantung area

The Kingdom of Italy makes its play in the Fukien province

France comes to agreement with Japan, cedes its interests in Formosa and concentrates on Kwangsi province in the South, pushing up from Tongking, also advancing into Yunnan and making landings on Hainan Island

With Chinese central authority collapsing, Britain pushes into Kwantung province from Hong Kong/Canton, using the might of the Royal Navy to destroy the Chinese fleet at Canton

One might imagine Austrian probings in Chekiang or Yangwei, but the position of the international community at Shanghai becoming a concern. Maybe international brigades to defend them. Britain, Prussia and Austria on the Yangtse

A worried USA watching all this with discomfort and concern

Grey Wolf

The simultaneous war against Russia needs attention here

Britain probably comes to an agreement with the Ottoman Empire over spheres of influence - Persia and Afghanistan for Britain, building on events that had already happened

In return the two are able to co-operate in Central Asia. The independent states who acknowledge Ottoman suzerainty and the lands to the North that would if freed

Meanwhile, Britain moves into Tibet

This is a long war as is the 'Scramble for China'. Maybe a decade long, ending in c1904/5

As it develops, Britain's aims become the destruction of the Russian Empire in any meaningful sense of the term. As China collapses, Japan's thrusts become aimed more at Russia, meeting Russian armies instead of Chinese ones

Japan's economy is kept on track by massive loans from Britain and France, with Prussia also later supplying some, and Belgium getting in on the act.

The main Ottoman thrust is aimed towards Astrakhan. It comes from the Northern Caucasus on the one hand, from the Crimean on another, and sees the British navy help in securing dominance of the Black Sea over the Russian force based at Nicolaevsk.

With Austria not adverse to advancing into the Eastern Ukraine, and with Ottoman armies thrusting towards Astrakhan, rump Russia cannot concentrate sufficient forces to meet the British coming North from India and allying with the Central Asian states, and the Japanese thrusting from the East

The United States attempts to broker an accord but the 'Scramble for China' and the death-match with Russia admit of no let up. The USA annexes Hawaii and fights a victorious war against Spain whilst European attentions are thoroughly distracted

Grey Wolf

Did the USS Maine, or some other ship (since it has been proven to have been a problem with the ships design for fuel storage/boiler IIRC, it could supposedly happen to another vessel of the same class) so it could blow up in Cuba as its excuse for war or does it actively seek to help the Cuban rebels?

Is the outcome the same on what the US takes from Spain (Philippines, Puerto Rico, Pacific Is., etc.) or does it also annex Cuba (which would be a bit odd if they were there to help the independence movement)?