Tielhard
Banned
It occurred to me the other day that, amazingly, there is at least one outcome of a Federal America - British war during the American Civil War over the Trent Affair that we have not discussed on this board. That is, what happens after a British victory? Suppose there is a war but in its nature it is not unlike several posters have been suggesting, that is, it has the following key features:
a) The war is short, six months at most, then everyone comes to their senses.
For the sake of the argument assume that the Union has overrun the Niagara peninsula and is besieging Kingston, they control all of the Great Lakes. The British have a close blockade of the Union in place and have destroyed much of the Union fleet, a few of their remaining cruisers roam the oceans hunting British merchant ships but one by one they themselves are being hunted down. Fortress Monroe and Fort Calhoun have fallen. Fort Jefferson has yielded to siege. Baltimore and San Francisco have been burned their defences reduced. Watertown Arsenal, Wilmington and Newhaven powder mill destroyed along with their contents. Springfield Arsenal is badly dammaged. Sackett’s Harbor is a wasteland taken and retaken several times, Nantucket Island, Cape Cod, Portland, San Juan Island and much of the California gold field are in British hands. The Panama railway is now under British control. Bread rationing is being discussed in Parliament, American farmers go bust and burn their farms because they cannot sell their wheat. The Union cannot provide guns and powder to it huge army, it is desperately short of iron, steel and saltpetre. The Union has even run out of gold to pay the legendary blockade running captains bringing in powder and arms from Prussia, Russia and Scandinavia. though few enough of them get through the blockade. Hyperinflation has begun in the northern states.
b) A British victory and the USA yields but the peace terms are not unduly painful to the Union.
For discussion purposes assume they accept; withdrawal from Canada, return of the Confederate commissioners, an indemnity in gold against Britain’s war costs, San Juan Island with Sackett’s Harbor and surroundings. If you feel that is too lenient then throw in Nantucket and Santa Catalina Islands too.
c) At no time in the course of the Anglo - Union war does Britain or any other power recognise the independence of or formally ally with the Confederate States of America. Willberforce may be dead but it is simply not possible for a British government to ally with a white Christian slave state. Similarly, Lincoln has never felt the Union to be in a strong enough position to issue an emancipation declaration.
d) The ACW is not resolved in the course of the other war.
We have already assume a scenario where the Union blockade is broken. Let us further assume materiel flows freely to the CSA. New Orleans has not fallen and the Union has no enclaves left on the South’s coast. The CSA holds the lower Mississippi with powerful gunboats and rams. It has a small but modern ocean going navy purchased in Europe. The campaign on the Tennessee river has gone in the Confederacy’s favour. Elsewhere the USA has been hampered by lack of powder and modern firearms but it now has a much larger army at this time (Aug./Sept. 1862) than it did at a comparable date in OTL. The Army is very poorly equipped especially in comparison to the Confederates. There are almost no true fighting ships left in the USN.
The question is, what happens now?
On the USA’s side Lincoln and Seward still have some time before the election. They probably have the political support needed to continue the ACW. They can also probably put a great deal more treasure into it, need to put more treasure into it, than they did in OTL. What they have not got is much time in which to get an acceptable result, the election is coming. They may of course feel they have to go for a negotiated settlement but that is unlikely and even if they do it needs the agreement of the CSA.
Whilst all this happens, what is Britain going to do? They will want to trade with both USA and CSA but will they still find both belligerents acceptable recipients of British arms or will they deny one or both of them weapons and make them do with raw materials? They have just warred upon the one and the other exudes the vile odium of slavery. If they don’t sell them weapons to fight one another, others will step in to provide them. What of the blockade? Will they let the Union re-establish it? If not how will they uphold International Law and acceptable norms? If they don’t do that the (diplomatic and moral) support they have had in the recent war from France, Spain, Russian and the North German confederation (however grudging in the last two cases) will evaporate. How much will they feel they need to spend defending BNA? They are not in a good position.
The CSA are in the poorest position of all. In six months of well equipped war against a blockaded opponent that was simultaneously engaged in fighting a second war against a second powerful enemy they have been unable to obtain their independence. What are they going to do now their enemy gains in strength and their manpower is eroded away piecemeal?
As I am often accused (not without justification) of Yank baiting on this board I thought that I should say that, for what it is worth the suggested scenario represents what I believe to be a middling result for the USA in a war with Britain over the Trent Affair. A good result would be an even shorter war, loss of a few ships followed by defeat and minimal reparations. I can see opportunities for a Federal American victory, I do not regard a British victory as inevitable but all those scenarios involve great sacrifice and come at enormous cost to the USA, I would consider most of these victories to be bad results for the USA. The really bad results are defeats that start off with restrictions in the Westward advance of the USA and end with its complete destruction brought on by unchecked internal dissent.
Thoughts anyone?
a) The war is short, six months at most, then everyone comes to their senses.
For the sake of the argument assume that the Union has overrun the Niagara peninsula and is besieging Kingston, they control all of the Great Lakes. The British have a close blockade of the Union in place and have destroyed much of the Union fleet, a few of their remaining cruisers roam the oceans hunting British merchant ships but one by one they themselves are being hunted down. Fortress Monroe and Fort Calhoun have fallen. Fort Jefferson has yielded to siege. Baltimore and San Francisco have been burned their defences reduced. Watertown Arsenal, Wilmington and Newhaven powder mill destroyed along with their contents. Springfield Arsenal is badly dammaged. Sackett’s Harbor is a wasteland taken and retaken several times, Nantucket Island, Cape Cod, Portland, San Juan Island and much of the California gold field are in British hands. The Panama railway is now under British control. Bread rationing is being discussed in Parliament, American farmers go bust and burn their farms because they cannot sell their wheat. The Union cannot provide guns and powder to it huge army, it is desperately short of iron, steel and saltpetre. The Union has even run out of gold to pay the legendary blockade running captains bringing in powder and arms from Prussia, Russia and Scandinavia. though few enough of them get through the blockade. Hyperinflation has begun in the northern states.
b) A British victory and the USA yields but the peace terms are not unduly painful to the Union.
For discussion purposes assume they accept; withdrawal from Canada, return of the Confederate commissioners, an indemnity in gold against Britain’s war costs, San Juan Island with Sackett’s Harbor and surroundings. If you feel that is too lenient then throw in Nantucket and Santa Catalina Islands too.
c) At no time in the course of the Anglo - Union war does Britain or any other power recognise the independence of or formally ally with the Confederate States of America. Willberforce may be dead but it is simply not possible for a British government to ally with a white Christian slave state. Similarly, Lincoln has never felt the Union to be in a strong enough position to issue an emancipation declaration.
d) The ACW is not resolved in the course of the other war.
We have already assume a scenario where the Union blockade is broken. Let us further assume materiel flows freely to the CSA. New Orleans has not fallen and the Union has no enclaves left on the South’s coast. The CSA holds the lower Mississippi with powerful gunboats and rams. It has a small but modern ocean going navy purchased in Europe. The campaign on the Tennessee river has gone in the Confederacy’s favour. Elsewhere the USA has been hampered by lack of powder and modern firearms but it now has a much larger army at this time (Aug./Sept. 1862) than it did at a comparable date in OTL. The Army is very poorly equipped especially in comparison to the Confederates. There are almost no true fighting ships left in the USN.
The question is, what happens now?
On the USA’s side Lincoln and Seward still have some time before the election. They probably have the political support needed to continue the ACW. They can also probably put a great deal more treasure into it, need to put more treasure into it, than they did in OTL. What they have not got is much time in which to get an acceptable result, the election is coming. They may of course feel they have to go for a negotiated settlement but that is unlikely and even if they do it needs the agreement of the CSA.
Whilst all this happens, what is Britain going to do? They will want to trade with both USA and CSA but will they still find both belligerents acceptable recipients of British arms or will they deny one or both of them weapons and make them do with raw materials? They have just warred upon the one and the other exudes the vile odium of slavery. If they don’t sell them weapons to fight one another, others will step in to provide them. What of the blockade? Will they let the Union re-establish it? If not how will they uphold International Law and acceptable norms? If they don’t do that the (diplomatic and moral) support they have had in the recent war from France, Spain, Russian and the North German confederation (however grudging in the last two cases) will evaporate. How much will they feel they need to spend defending BNA? They are not in a good position.
The CSA are in the poorest position of all. In six months of well equipped war against a blockaded opponent that was simultaneously engaged in fighting a second war against a second powerful enemy they have been unable to obtain their independence. What are they going to do now their enemy gains in strength and their manpower is eroded away piecemeal?
As I am often accused (not without justification) of Yank baiting on this board I thought that I should say that, for what it is worth the suggested scenario represents what I believe to be a middling result for the USA in a war with Britain over the Trent Affair. A good result would be an even shorter war, loss of a few ships followed by defeat and minimal reparations. I can see opportunities for a Federal American victory, I do not regard a British victory as inevitable but all those scenarios involve great sacrifice and come at enormous cost to the USA, I would consider most of these victories to be bad results for the USA. The really bad results are defeats that start off with restrictions in the Westward advance of the USA and end with its complete destruction brought on by unchecked internal dissent.
Thoughts anyone?
