REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?

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Prologue
  • Index

    • Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth

    Gone Fishin'

    KAISER WILHELM THE TENTH PROUDLY PRESENTS:​

    52130655609_5792247174_o.png
    I must begin by thanking all the readers and commentators who made the original Place In the Sun what it was! Well over two hundred people actively participated in the original thread, and countless more read and liked without commenting. With your help, we came in second place in the 2021 Post-1900 Turtledove Awards, for which I remain deeply grateful.

    The TL was an integral part of my life for well over a year, yet I gradually succumbed to writer's fatigue and burnout. Abandoning it unexpectedly in autumn 2021 was hard, yet I deemed it the right choice at the time. Not a day passed, however, when I wasn't thinking about TTL: What were my favourite parts to write? What scenes and characters meant the most to me? What implausibilities and omissions existed? World War I, and the notion of a Central Powers victory in particular, has intrigued me since I was a kid, and this timeline represents the culmination of that interest. This timeline, and what it represents, kept me going through some dark patches in the Real World. No other creative outlet, however enjoyable, could match Place In the Sun; it all felt like a stop-gap. Crafting an idea from historical fact and imagination, putting it into a coherent narrative, and entertaining others with it is an experience with which nothing else can compare. Simply put, I loved Place In the Sun too much to ever truly abandon it or ever stop wondering how I could have improved on it. Eight months after laying down 1.0, the TL returns.

    Many errors and omissions- some large, some small- have since become apparent. Most are due to a lack of planning on my part- I began 1.0 with few ideas other than "Italy joins the Central Powers, cool stuff happens afterwards". While fun to write, this led to a slightly confused narrative. Once the conflicts in France, Danubia (Austria-Hungary), India, and Mexico resolved themselves, I began running out of ideas and lost enthusiasm shortly thereafter. Far more research and preplanning has gone into this Redux than the original, and I hope to make this a work of "hard" alternate history, especially close to the PoD. In terms of writing style, I hope to make each individual chapter shorter (I found the large walls of text in 1.0 daunting) and more specific, yet to release more of them.

    Feedback, constructive criticism, etc, are all actively requested!
     
  • Index
    • Table of Contents
  • Index

    • Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth

    Gone Fishin'
    Last edited:
  • Index
    • Chapter I- Lloyd George's Blunder
  • Index

    • Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth

    Gone Fishin'

    Chapter I​

    Lloyd George's Blunder​

    "Do you really think it will come to war?"

    The question was asked in bureaus, offices, and homes, by politicians, kings, financiers, and mothers. Of course not, they reassured themselves. Peace was inevitable. The war-like do not inherit the earth. Yet every day the news from Vienna and Berlin grew worse and worse.

    And then the peace for which so much had sacrificed over so many decades died in a week.

    As the world fell apart in summer 1914 nothing seemed certain. Assurances of victory died on the Marne, and it slowly dawned on the people of Europe that there was no escape. Honor compelled the strong to keep fighting; survival compelled the weak. Anglo-French panic became grim resolve to reverse their losses. German hubris, born of chasing their enemies across the plains, turned to desperation. The Dual Monarchy found its lofty self-image based on history, not prowess, wanting. Russia's legendary manpower proved meaningless without logistics and leadership.

    So the war lengthened. And every day made peace that much harder to achieve.

    Some took refuge in neutrality. Once a German target, the Netherlands were spared, and would become Germany's main trade conduit throughout the war. No Scandinavian nation, cultural ties with Germany notwithstanding, had any animus against London or Berlin. Bulgaria loathed its neighbours but, without help, was powerless to act. Domestic tensions kept Romania and Greece out of the war. Economic problems and geographic distance dissuaded either Iberian state from joining. Ottoman Turkey remained neutral for months before declaring for the Central Powers in November. Swiss neutrality was a given. None of this overly concerned Berlin and Vienna.

    Italian neutrality, on the other hand, was seen as a snub.

    The Kingdom of Italy had spent the fifty years since its founding in search of a path. Disunity had been the status quo since the seventh century because it favoured outside actors: the Papacy guarded its enclave around Rome, Naples had enjoyed Spanish patronage before becoming a power in its own right, France had vigorously defended its interests in the north-west, and the Habsburgs had maintained a controlling stake in the peninsula's affairs. Compromise and conquest had been necessary to secure Risorgimento, and the end result was an internationally isolated, internally divided state. Bismarck's youthful Germany, sharing Italy's need for a new path and animosity with France, guaranteed its security in 1879. Though Austria-Hungary subsequently entered the alliance, few Italians saw them as an ally, and in 1912 both agreed to maintain the status quo in the Balkans. Imperial misadventures and a poor showing against Ottoman Turkey degraded Italy's military value as an ally. (2) Rapprochement with France and deep economic dependence on Britain left Italy with attachments to both camps. Italian irredentists coveted Austrian Tyrol and Trieste just as much as French Savoy. Thus, on the (entirely accurate) pretext that Austria-Hungary, as the aggressor, was in violation of the Alliance terms, Italy declared neutrality in summer 1914. Berlin and Vienna were angered but not entirely surprised: "what could one expect from slothful Italians?" (3)

    Italy watched the first months of fighting with Prime Minister Antonio Salandra's cynical doctrine of sacro egoisimo- sacred self interest- in mind. Fear that a quickly triumphant Germany would turn on them faded with the Marne. Regardless of who triumphed, the Great Powers would be weaker postwar, leaving Italy proportionally stronger. The rupturing of international trade and subsequent rise in food prices made Italian exports more lucrative; ports in Naples and Sicily provided a valve for German trade. Italy's good offices facilitated exchanges of detainees and prisoners and served as a base for Red Cross efforts (enhancing the country's international image). Austro-German diplomats found themselves fighting with their Franco-British counterparts for time with Salandra and his ministers. Intriguing offers were made by all, yet Italy refused to pick a side.

    Salandra, however, was not operating in a vaccuum, and decisions taken in London would push Italy closer to war.

    Italy had an enormous net deficit of coal- ten million tonnes a year, most of which came from Great Britain. (4) After Italy's declaration of neutrality, British diplomats quietly agreed to continue exports "subject to the will of our Government". With winter months away (and the Italian climate in any case milder than their northern neighbours), Rome was hopeful the war could end before major coal shortages piled up. As it became apparent that the war would last past Christmas, however, the Italians sought confirmation of British imports.

    They soon received a rude shock.

    Great Britain, like all combatants, had banked on a short, victorious conflict. Consequently, London had failed to shift its economy to a war footing. David Lloyd George, Chancellor of the Exchequer, dreaded the consequences of this failure. Lloyd George proposed several revenue-raising schemes to the Cabinet on 1 October, foremost of which concerned the conservation of coal, of which Britain was a net exporter. Demand in Europe, the Empire, and Latin America made this a lucrative trade, and, contrary to later accusations, Lloyd George never planned to suspend British exports until war's end. His error was to think like a banker, not a strategist. Mass production of military equipment would cost a great deal, as would transporting and supplying armies in Europe and elsewhere. Vastly underestimating Britain's capacity to produce and store coal (4), Lloyd George assumed the country needed to maximise its supply, to save money if for no other reason. And with Germany and Belgium- prewar competitors in the trade- sealed off by the blockade, the British could afford to raise prices on what they did export. Secretary of War Lord Kitchener added that exporting to potentially hostile nations such as Ottoman Turkey or Italy was unwise in wartime. The Coal Regulation Act, setting export ceilings and tariffs, passed six weeks later. (5)

    Antonio Salandra cautiously visited British ambassador Rennell Rodd on the last day of November 1914, reminding him of "our longstanding agreements in the fields of coal and iron ore which have proved so profitable to us both". The message, though phrased diplomatically, was clear: without cheap, abundant British coal, his nation could not power itself. Rodd replied, ice in his veins, that he lacked the authority to modify London's policy.

    Italy was on its own.
    1. Norman Angell, The Great Illusion, 1910​
    2. Slightly OT, but for an interesting treatment of this see pp. 275-278 of American Empire: A Global History (AG Hopkins, 2018)​
    3. An unfair sentiment but there you go.​
    4. Confess to not having researched this particular economic aspect of the war too deeply, but Britain's ability to stay warm throughout the conflict surely attests to a sizeable and efficient reserve- no?​
    5. This is the new PoD. With Italy losing much of its coal from Britain, it has far less incentive to stay neutral and Entente diplomacy is generally less effective.​
    Comments?
     
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  • Index
    • Spamavalanche

    Spamavalanche

    Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth said:

    KAISER WILHELM THE TENTH PROUDLY PRESENTS:​

    52130655609_5792247174_o.png
    I must begin by thanking all the readers and commentators who made the original Place In the Sun what it was! Well over two hundred people actively participated in the original thread, and countless more read and liked without commenting. With your help, we came in second place in the 2021 Post-1900 Turtledove Awards, for which I remain deeply grateful.

    The TL was an integral part of my life for well over a year, yet I gradually succumbed to writer's fatigue and burnout. Abandoning it unexpectedly in autumn 2021 was hard, yet I deemed it the right choice at the time. Not a day passed, however, when I wasn't thinking about TTL: What were my favourite parts to write? What scenes and characters meant the most to me? What implausibilities and omissions existed? World War I, and the notion of a Central Powers victory in particular, has intrigued me since I was a kid, and this timeline represents the culmination of that interest. This timeline, and what it represents, kept me going through some dark patches in the Real World. No other creative outlet, however enjoyable, could match Place In the Sun; it all felt like a stop-gap. Crafting an idea from historical fact and imagination, putting it into a coherent narrative, and entertaining others with it is an experience with which nothing else can compare. Simply put, I loved Place In the Sun too much to ever truly abandon it or ever stop wondering how I could have improved on it. Eight months after laying down 1.0, the TL returns.

    Many errors and omissions- some large, some small- have since become apparent. Most are due to a lack of planning on my part- I began 1.0 with few ideas other than "Italy joins the Central Powers, cool stuff happens afterwards". While fun to write, this led to a slightly confused narrative. Once the conflicts in France, Danubia (Austria-Hungary), India, and Mexico resolved themselves, I began running out of ideas and lost enthusiasm shortly thereafter. Far more research and preplanning has gone into this Redux than the original, and I hope to make this a work of "hard" alternate history, especially close to the PoD. In terms of writing style, I hope to make each individual chapter shorter (I found the large walls of text in 1.0 daunting) and more specific, yet to release more of them.

    Feedback, constructive criticism, etc, are all actively requested!
    Click to expand...
    As you may know, I was a big fan of the original, so you can color me a watcher right away! But I have one question, how similar will this be to the original? Will it have the same major plot points of the original? Or will it be something different?
     
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    KingSweden24

    Hell yeah! Eagerly anticipating this redux, i was a major admirer of the original (you ended it literally four days after I got caught up! Haha)

    I think this is a pretty solid POD. It’s not one that you’d immediately think of but makes sense in the strategic economic context of the time
     
    Quinkana

    Quinkana

    Spamavalanche said:
    As you may know, I was a big fan of the original, so you can color me a watcher right away! But I have one question, how similar will this be to the original? Will it have the same major plot points of the original? Or will it be something different?
    Click to expand...
    I'd guess Italy is more pushed by British ittl than otl. Also poor Armenians and Georgians they won't have a good time ittl. And France will become Fascist.
     
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    Imperial Advocate

    Imperial Advocate

    I remember reading the OG version of this TL, can’t wait to see what you have in store. Though it might be spoilers, will the redux still have the additional PoD of having Austria-Hungary cede Trento and Trieste to Italy for joining the CP? I’ll guess I’ll have to see in future updates…
     

    Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth

    Gone Fishin'
    Thanks for all the support guys. It means the world!
    Spamavalanche said:
    As you may know, I was a big fan of the original, so you can color me a watcher right away! But I have one question, how similar will this be to the original? Will it have the same major plot points of the original? Or will it be something different?
    Click to expand...
    This is going to be fairly similar (but WAY more detailed) up until when France requests a cease-fire; peace will take longer to come about and the process will be far messier.
    KingSweden24 said:
    Hell yeah! Eagerly anticipating this redux, i was a major admirer of the original (you ended it literally four days after I got caught up! Haha)

    I think this is a pretty solid POD. It’s not one that you’d immediately think of but makes sense in the strategic economic context of the time
    Click to expand...
    -Glad I timed it right. ;)
    -Yeah, I like this PoD a lot. Something many AH works (1.0 amongst them!) lean towards is "x happens, butterflies cause cool stuff", but without explaining why the divergence occurred in sufficient detail, and ignoring the powerful inertia of the status quo. There is a reason, after all, why OTL's history played out as it did.

    Quinkana said:
    I'd guess Italy is more pushed by British ittl than ittl. Also poor Armenians and Georgians they won't have a good time ittl. And France will become Fascist.
    Click to expand...
    -Yeah, Italy is more forced into war by British miscalculation than lured in by promises from the Central Powers.
    -I've been doing some research on the Armenian Genocide, and... with no Holocaust, it could well be THE greatest crime against humanity in TTL's 20th Century. Hopefully more sane voices will prevail in the Ottoman Empire and the Armenian people will survive.
    -France's postwar political path will be covered extensively! In some ways it will resemble 1.0, in other ways not.
    Jaenera Targaryen said:
    LMAO at those pics. First it's Willy and Franz Josef tugging at Italia turrita, then it's a bunch of old men in swimwear playing tug of war XDXDXD
    Click to expand...
    -Yeah, I found both of those really funny actually! As an aside, I make no claims to being good at graphics and if anyone can make a better version, it will be graciously accepted!
    Gabingston said:
    This timeline is going to be awesome. Can't wait for more.
    Click to expand...
    I hope so. Can't wait to publish 'more' !
    TheBalkanizer said:
    Wow two Central Power Victory TL Reduxes at the same time? Love it!!!
    Click to expand...
    I've been reading the new To the Victor Go the Spoils myself... Obviously very different from TTL yet still fantastic.
    Imperial Advocate said:
    I remember reading the OG version of this TL, can’t wait to see what you have in store. Though it might be spoilers, will the redux still have the additional PoD of having Austria-Hungary cede Trento and Trieste to Italy for joining the CP? I’ll guess I’ll have to see in future updates…
    Click to expand...
    Yes, those regions will end up transferred still (though it'll be via plebiscite rather than fiat from on high)
    John Spangler said:
    Welcome back, @Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth! I'm extremely glad that you decided to return. This is one of the best TLs I've ever read, and I have very fond memories of when I first read it. Looking forward to more!
    Click to expand...
    pls don't ban me said:
    @Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth welcome back, again!
    Glad to see this Tl back in action, it deserves a completion.
    Click to expand...
    Thank you very much, both of you!
    Can't wait to get back at it.
     
    Quinkana

    Quinkana

    Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth said:
    I've been doing some research on the Armenian Genocide, and... with no Holocaust, it could well be THE greatest crime against humanity in TTL's 20th Century.
    Click to expand...
    Tbf I'd think France and Russia could be just as bad to the Jews as the Nazis, It's just that the scope would be smaller. I'd think in places in Ukraine and Belgium is where we'll see scenes like Auschwitz. Also the Brits may also get a government that's racist as fuck and as a result South Africa and Rhodesia would be much much more fucked up (there's no point in ethnically cleansing India I'd imagine them being much more brutal to rebels tho). I could see them successfully ethnically cleansing all the Africans out of more areas. Maybe we'd see a British Imperial system that excludes Canada, Australia and New Zealand which allies with Australia or Germany. But I do think the Armenian genocide will be much better remembered than otl, which is a good thing.

    PS: I love central victory scenarios and Megali Greece lol. Two diametrically opposed ideas in WWI era tls.
     

    Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth

    Gone Fishin'
    Quinkana said:
    Tbf I'd think France and Russia could be just as bad to the Jews as the Nazis, It's just that the scope would be smaller. I'd think in places in Ukraine and Belgium is where we'll see scenes like Auschwitz. Also the Brits may also get a government that's racist as fuck and as a result South Africa and Rhodesia would be much much more fucked up (there's no point in ethnically cleansing India I'd imagine them being much more brutal to rebels tho). I could see them successfully ethnically cleansing all the Africans out of more areas. Maybe we'd see a British Imperial system that excludes Canada, Australia and New Zealand which allies with Australia or Germany. But I do think the Armenian genocide will be much better remembered than otl, which is a good thing.

    PS: I love central victory scenarios and Megali Greece lol. Two diametrically opposed ideas in WWI era tls.
    Click to expand...
    You raise good points.
    "France goes Nazi" is the ultimate trope in CP victory TLs and one I intend to avoid... this doesn't mean there won't be anti-Jewish violence in the country however. There's more scope for such a thing in Russia, especially if fringe groups like the Black Hundred seize power.

    Ethnic cleansing in South Africa or Rhodesia, unfortunately, is within the realm of possibility. We'll have to see.

    By the way, I too find the Megali Idea fascinating- that's a scenario with potential for mass ethnic violence. Don't think it particularly likely in a world where Ottoman Turkey wins World War I, but we'll have to see.
     
    Quinkana

    Quinkana

    Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth said:
    You raise good points.
    "France goes Nazi" is the ultimate trope in CP victory TLs and one I intend to avoid... this doesn't mean there won't be anti-Jewish violence in the country however. There's more scope for such a thing in Russia, especially if fringe groups like the Black Hundred seize power.

    Ethnic cleansing in South Africa or Rhodesia, unfortunately, is within the realm of possibility. We'll have to see.

    By the way, I too find the Megali Idea fascinating- that's a scenario with potential for mass ethnic violence. Don't think it particularly likely in a world where Ottoman Turkey wins World War I, but we'll have to see.
    Click to expand...
    I always felt commie France is much much more clichéd than fascist France. I'd think it'd be a mix of Fascism and Communism/socialism for France much like how a lot of fascists were originally communists/socialists (and much like Kaiserreich).

    Tbf you could still torpedo Turkey after WWI I do feel. Like have a civil war and the Kurds and Arabs come in to have fun and break everything at the end with Germany making an ally out of Greece by giving parts of Western Anatolia to Greece (like Turkey could be like otl Russia by just straight up crumbling but idk if that's plausible with the timeframe. Post war civil war's possible too.). And it's the 20th century ethnic violence is ripe and you can't say the Turks are innocents they did ethnically cleanse the Greeks out of Anatolia.
     
    Quinkana

    Quinkana

    Migrant_Coconut said:
    Worth noting that a lot of "fascism" as we know it is due to Mussolini's influence; French authoritarianism may look completely different.
    Click to expand...
    I'd think French 'fascism' would be a lot more Christian/clerical and as a result may emphasize characteristics like helping people of the same group and add commune type stuff in due to Christian influence. They may also try to control some industries for a welfare state (only the French) for obvious reasons.
     
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