as i said in the bigger post our dear author mentioned the french fleet only has 8 battleships left remaining. which is where i got the mentioned losses though i am curious how they would of sustained them. to be honest i was not counting the other pre dreadnoughts because of their age similar to why i did not include the Re Umberto-class but i admit that may have been oversight on my part especially in regards of losses. if
@Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth could clarify that would be amazing?
Yes- I'm counting the pre dreadnoughts as battleships if that's what you're asking.
Basically colonial wise with a UK that use diplomacy to get some semblance of balance of power:
Germany: get back Tanganyka, Kamerun and Togo but not Namibia and his pacific holdings (neither Japan or Australia will want to give them back) and in exchange of assurance regarding Belgium independece and neutrality got Congo.
Italy: Libya is enlarged (basically OTL plus the Aouzou strip) and sure it will need to be pacified still with hindsight Italy is an a better position than OTL and in general with meager gain Italy can't permit to let anything slip from his hand so...it will suck being a Senussi; regarding the colonies in the horn of Africa well depend on the author but is probable that will be given back in exchange of moderation plus something (again most probably Jubaland and some OTL border adjustment between Eritrea and Djibuti, very cheap but it's showy.
Regarding Tunisia, well it will be one of the primary objective of the italian diplomacy and if it can't be gained at least the demilitarization of the border with Libya and serious protection for the italian minority will be demanded as some border adjustment, basically a return of the original pre 1892 border between Libya and Tunisia
Regarding a treaty extremely offensive for Italy in term of gain, well OTL WWII treaty between Italy and France in 1940
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistizio_di_Villa_Incisa
Only real addendum is that Nice will be really really hard to deny to the italians, too big offense and France will not really capable of resist, frankly this type of treaty is ok only if Germany decide to f..k the italians just for the lulz and because it seem that they are not needed as ally as they have this military juggernaut and pinnacle of internal stability of A-H and the OE at their side
-I agree with you about the German Colonies except I don't see Britain ever letting Germany have the Congo- it's simply too large and valuable. Better to sacrifice Belgium east of the Meuse, which would also be a more tangible victory, especially for the German Right Wing/
Septemberprogram advocates.
-Libya will get its OTL borders but Britain has no interest in letting East Africa go- direct control of Eritrea and protectorates in Somalia let them lock up that part of the continent and ensure the Straits of Hormuz are theirs on both sides. Not sure which way Tunisia will go but I could see Germany forcing France to cede it. Nice is going to become Italian for sure, likely Savoy as well.
-Germany won't deliberately try to screw Italy over, more like there's only so much the irredentists can gain by defeating France and fighting the UK to a draw, and that will fuel postwar resentment even though it's no one's fault.
Ottoman gain will be against Russia (OTL Brest- Litivosk) but i doubt that the British will not demand some enlargement of their protectorate of Kuwait at Iraq expense and the recognition of the independece of the Kingdom of Hejaz.
A-H will also get her gain from Russia but also Serbia and Montenegro
-I don't actually see a Treaty of Brest-Litovsk happening here as long as Falkenhayn and the "Westerners" remain in control, but the Ottomans will get their 1914 border back one way or the other. Puppet states in the Caucasus will depend on how the Russian Civil War goes.
-Britain is going to advance as far up the Tigris and into Palestine as it can regardless of developments in Northern France; whether or not the Balfour Declaration will be issued here is an interesting question. Either way, expect puppet states/protectorates in the region.
-The Dual Monarchy will not annex any land (the Hungarians won't stand for it) but Serbia (minus the bits given to Bulgaria) and Poland (minus the German Border Strip) will become their puppets under the Obrenovics and
Archduke Charles Stephen, respectively.
Like I commented earlier, throw Gabon in for Germany and at least getting back their concession in Tsingtao.
Possible, but I think the Germans would have bigger priorities: Kaiser Wilhelm II will obviously want Tsingtao back, but Togo and East Africa, at least, are more valuable and somewhat easier to defend while Germany has no precedent for claiming Gabon.
So if I may way in on all my thoughts for the future with the current state of affairs.
Going chronological order.
But need to establish things first.
SNIP
End of war
I somalia is lost no doubts about it. However, Eritrea will likely be a mess for whoever occupies it because it had a friendlier relationship with Italy which will complicate any occupation
In terms of end goals
1st Nice
No way they wouldn't get this it is the center point of the French irredentia.
2nd: Savoy or Corsica
Both have their positives and negatives both have value up to the French on which one they are willing to fight more for. But if one gets occupied then both are ending up in italian hands.
3rd: Tunsia
Many have said their piece it's seizure by the French was a humiliation and italy getting it would be strategic win however irrendentia such as nice savoy and Corsica will always rank higher in goals.
4th getting Eritrea back
5th somalia
6th any additional colonies.
Overall IMHO italy will likely get all the irredentia off France the treatment very similar to otl Germany as by the end of the war they just won't have anything else left and everyone will know it . There is unlikely to be a stab in the back myth for France mainly because they indisputably lost and it wouldn't be the first. However, the colony's are a big asterisks may recommend that colonies or reparations may be the choice Germany forces on them. Britain is an interesting one because their economy just wouldn't be able to wait out Germany especially if France falls example would be they likely have to abandon the med unless their willing to split fleets to fight everyone. one the accounting side of things they just aren't receiving the same resources they were OTL from america which completely cripples their long term capability to combat germany in a long game
Anyways some of my thoughts
Thank you for your detailed comment: analyses are always welcome! The description of the naval battle, aftermath, and Italy's peace objectives are spot on with little for me to add.
-I think some sort of stab in the back myth is still likely for France, if only because the alternative is to admit that everything they did over the last forty years was a complete waste; that would suggest some inherent failure in the political system or the country itself, something no one will be willing to accept. It won't be "the Jews betrayed our High Command and made us sign an armistice when we were winning!", more like "subversive elements undermined our country for decades and we have to root them out if we are ever going to get even", or blaming Republicanism for delivering two lost wars (counting the French Revolutionary Wars).
-A choice between colonies and reparations would be interesting; I think Germany is likely to favour the latter. It looks less impressive but does far more to keep the French down than taking, say, Morocco and Central Africa.
-I think Britain would still be able to trade with America and even Argentina on the same scale as OTL, but the question is how much worse Unrestricted Submarine Warfare will be. As discussed upthread, there will be a race to the bottom to see whose economy outlasts the other's- but if anyone can beat a Continental European power in the long game, it's Britain.
I pretty heavily agree. with the current naval battle and current offensive italy unlike otl has no major failure and some massive wins which are likely to earn them many points at the peace deal. Simply compared to as you put it pinnacles of internal stability Italy is too valuable to be ignored. Many civilians will look at their victories. Though I doubt german command would be happy with it.
Germany still sees Italy as a junior partner, and the affair of not delaying Operation
Aquila did Rome no favours, but they can't simply be ignored.
to give up control over Hejaz means losing control over the 2 holy cities. which is kinda like shooting in your foot if you are a caliphate.
Also aren't the British supporting the Saudi Family?
AH will occupy both Montenegro and Serbia. i agree. on the other side there will be a decrease of population in the area. guerrilla and stuff. Bulgaria and other side will do in Nish what Yugoslavia did in Macedonia OTL. will start teaching the local Serbs that they are actually Bulgarian, all descendant of the glorious Bulgarian empires etc. if the manage to keep control over the region fro at least 30 years( while also showing that life under the Bulgarian tsardom ain't that bad) it will become an actual Bulgarian region.
-The Saudis are going to come out on top as per OTL... which means this world may have to deal with Wahabbism at some point down the line. One hopes not.
-Right on about Montenegro and Serbia.
Great couple of chapters. One thing I note on the naval battle is that, if anything, the losses are too light! In the sort of knife fight described, the destroyers would be launching torpedoes everywhere, and getting shot up by everything. I recall that WW1 Italian destroyers were generally better than their French counterparts. Note that the Italians do have some quite acceptable pre-dreadnoughts. They aren't up to taking on French battleships, but are fine vessels. The Regina Elena class pre-dreadnoughts are sort of proto-battlecruisers, being much faster than other pre-dreadnoughts, and a little faster than the average dreadnought of the time. However, French dreadnoughts will not be venturing out of port unless forced, due to political considerations of losing another one. So, the Regina Elena class would be great for sweeping around the Med, sinking French commerce and lone cruisers.
You raise excellent points and I hadn't given much thought to the role of destroyers beyond anti-submarine duties. One thing that's surprised me in doing the research for this TL is how good Italian ships actually were- I had expected the
Regia Marina to be quite inferior to the French but there you go.
while the chapter doesn't talk about specific losses i did do the math they did lose 8 battleships so it was one heavy of a battle. you are quite right that the Italian vessels were a lot speedier and battlecruiser-like if there was one design philosophy the Italians held it was speed and firepower. basic sonic glass cannons
Italian speed made the Battle of Cannes and saved them during the Battle of the Ligurian Sea.
But there were naval battles with only little losses. For example in
the Battle of Lissa the Italians only got two out of 32 ships sunk and the Austrians lost not a single ship (out of 26). Although admittedly the technology level was different and the Italian admiral was reluctant to engage which both contributed to most ships making it through.
That technology gap and different willingness to engage would make all the difference.
You are correct in saying that, in a knife fight like described guns won't sink many ships. They simply can't depress enough to let water in. Where I expect heavy losses to come from is the destroyers that would be filling the water with torpedoes, a danger to friend and foe alike. Rather like an old game of World of Warships in the lower levels.
Let's see: French losses: Bretagne, Paris, Mirabeau
Italian losses: Guillo Cesare
Courbet also took a lot of damage.
Bretagne was the newest, most powerful unit in the French fleet. Armor is quite irrelevant in the battle described, no amount of armor would keep out 12 and 13.4" shells at that range.
France will be adding the last two units of the Bretagne class in the next couple of months, so between that and repairs, I expect the French to do nothing in the short term. The French have plenty of pre-dreadnoughts, but most of them are either badly obsolete (Even as what they are) or in bad repair.
French Pre-dreadnoughts: 3 Liberte class, 2 Republique class, 1 Suffren class, 1 Iena class, 3 Charlemagne class, 1 Bouvet class and 1 Jaureguiberry class. Also the remaining Dantons, though I expect them to be held for frontline service with the dreadnoughts. The Charlemagne, Bouvet and Jaureguiberry classes are generally quite old, and in poor repair
The Italians have 8 pre-dreadnoughts.
The Germans should try and browbeat the Austrians into attacking the French as well. At present I think the RN presence in the Med is limited to a single division of Pre-dreadnoughts. The loss of any more French capital ships will probably see the French shrieking for RN reinforcements, which of course only helps the Germans....
-France is going to get the two other
Bretagne ships while the Italians are going to get
Andrea Doria- this will make it that much harder for either side to attack again.
-I'm not sure the Austro-Hungarians would want to risk their fleet when it could sit in the safety of Trieste- not as though the French will be able to hit them there.
We know Falkenhayn and probably a lot of the Heer doesn't think highly of the Italians, but what about the Kaiserlich Marine, the RM just managed to snap a win against a superior foe like the Germans want to do. On a TTL version of a Jutland like battle between Germany and Britain I kinda like the idea of weighting the scale in favor of Germany, the numbers are too favourable to Britain to change things much but the sheer humiliation and seething would be amazing.
I'm not sure how Jutland would be different ITTL but you're right that Germany would view Italy's Navy as superior to her Army.
***
A few days ago, I said that Part III would go through to the end of the war- I've retconned that plan. My chapter on the Battle of Verdun has reached 8200 words in three days and the city hasn't even fallen. Rather than post a 10k+ word behemoth (who remembers the 20k liberation of Vienna from 1.0?), I'm breaking Verdun down into chunks. Part III will cover the battle and fallout, and Part IV will go from summer 1916 to the end of the war.
I admit to having taken some liberties with Verdun here. Specifically, Falkenhayn sees Brusati trying to run his own mincing machine in the Alps and makes one key last minute change to the plan: rather than just taking the high ground surrounding Verdun as in OTL, he decides to attack the western bank of the Meuse
and strike at the city itself, to make the French even more desperate to counterattack. Authorial fiat? Absolutely- but I hope within the bounds of plausibility. In addition, the Italian expeditionary force on the Western Front has freed up ten extra German divisions, giving them sixty with which to launch Operation
Gericht- it is these extra ten who strike on the western bank on Day One.
Questions and criticism are encouraged- part of why I want to break Verdun up is so any errors can become apparent in stages before I've written the whole battle and have to delete thousands of words! Thank you as always for your readership and participation in the thread- it is a real joy to engage here and better my writing skills and knowledge of the subject matter. With no more ado...
