Some great discussion here on the future of Austria-Hungary: a subject I've always been interested in. We are still a long way from the end of the war, never mind a political crisis in the Dual Monarchy, but here's some of my general thoughts:
-The Italian minorities within the Empire are, for the moment, quiet- they fully expect to be annexed via plebiscite once the fighting is over and so have no reason to be disloyal. If the plebiscites don't go their way then things could get very messy very fast; it's worth remembering that Rome and Vienna are more partners of convenience bound together by common enemies and alliance with Germany, than genuine allies of conviction.
-Hungary will not under any circumstances accept more annexations which would distill their unique status within the Empire: Austria-Hungary will come away no larger than before, except
maybe taking the coast of Montenegro to deny their Serbian puppet access to the sea. The western half of the empire is still very much dependent on the Hungarians for agricultural supplies. In general, the Hungarians are going to take the position that now the war is over, and the venerable Franz Joseph is dead, the Austrian half needs to pay them "due respect"- that is, any attempt to replicate the 1867 Compromise with Bohemians or South Slavs
will end in secession. The Compromise came up for review every ten years- 1917 will be as much of a non-event as OTL, as the war is still nominally ongoing, but 1927 could bring about a major constitutional crisis, possibly escalating into civil war.
-Unlike OTL, Austro-Hungarian troops are occupying all of Poland; the German soldiers stationed there in OTL are at the front. This gives Vienna a lot more leverage regarding that country's fate than OTL- provided Germany can get the resources it wants, and annex its Border Strip after the war (something which, AFAIK, pretty much everyone in the military high command, not just Hindenburg and Ludendorff, favoured), it doesn't really care. This means Archduke Charles Stephen is going to become King of Poland in 1917 or 1918, tying the country to the Dual Monarchy. Rump Poland will be an Austro-Hungarian puppet, not a German one, for as long as the Dual Monarchy continues to exist.
-South Slavic nationalism is dead and buried, quite by design. Everyone with ties to the prewar Serbian government, never mind the Black Hand and similar terrorist groups, is going to face brutal persecution wherever they go. Finding a legitimate monarch to rule the country will be tricky- the Obrenovics had a nasty habit of getting assassinated. A Wikipedia dive tells me the best candidate for the throne is
Prince Mirko of Montenegro, who married the great granddaughter of nineteenth-century prince
Mihailo Obrenovic. Given his age (he died in 1918) and the fact that Austria-Hungary occupied his native country, the most likely scenario in my mind is a Serbia-Montenegro union under Mirko's son Michael, who was all of ten years old at this point. Habsburg "advisers" can run the country, and when Michael comes of age, he can marry a Hohenzollern/Habsburg princess and forge a dynasty with ties to the Central Powers.
-Austria-Hungary's domestic situation is still not great by 1918, but it could also be worse: Italian and Polish foodstuffs are making a positive difference, and the lack of an Italian front has freed up men to help bring in the harvests. Times are still lean, but we're also not seeing malnourished boys in the streets of Vienna. This will give the regime some of the breathing room it lacked in OTL.
-Victory over the Serbs and Russians, plus less subordination to Germany than OTL, has given the Habsburg Dynasty a legitimacy boost which it lost in OTL 1918: it's much easier to blame economic problems on "the damned war" when you're winning said conflict. By the end, the country is also shielded from the worst of the fighting: France is a long way off, Italy is friendly or at least a co-belligerent, Serbia is crushed, Romania neutral, Poland occupied, and Russia, at minimum, is not an existential threat. No threat of the Allies knocking Bulgaria out of the war and attacking from the south at the eleventh hour.
In general, I don't want to comment on who's right and who's wrong. This is in part because I haven't made a final decision yet myself on where to take the country, and because I want to foster discussion: that gives me new ideas and dispels bad ones (such as that Britain would sooner drag out the war indefinitely than give back a single German Colony), which makes the timeline better. I take every comment into consideration so thank you all for your feedback.
@Skulduggery, I was glad to see you mention
The Habsburg Empire, A New History: Judson's work was the first to open my eyes to the Habsburg Empire seen "from the inside" as opposed to the traditional, post-Versailles view.
As an aside, has anyone read John Connolly's
From Peoples into Nations? Picked it up in spring 2022 and while I was disappointed to see it omit Ukraine, it was still an excellent read and helped form my views on Eastern Europe in this time period. I'd be curious to hear anyone else's thoughts on it, or any similar books worth reading.
Thanks as always for reading and commenting.