REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?

[lukedalton]

Italian politics are… something else.

Well Badoglio, was very loyal to the Savoy and chief of staff of the army and after 20 years of fascism was basically the highest ranking man that was not a fully member of the Fascist Party in the political life of Italy, everybody else was a too small fry or an non entity that nobody will have took seriously as leader of Italy...that was done by purpose by Benny as anybody with skill and charisma strong enough to be seen as an alternative was send in golden exile like Balbo or demoted to other lower job, by the end only the sychopant and the yes man remained.
Plus Badoglio word need to be put in the context of the internal rivalry in the armed forces, something aslo greatly fostered by Benny to avoid possibly coup, the air forces was the arma fascistissima while the army retained a much stronger loyalty towards the King so there were...tension, never reached the japanese level but coordinate between them was very hard and all fought for money and resources, again all this was done by purpose

 

[RedLegion]

italians were the biggest group of immigrant (seasonal or permanent) in mainland France at the time, they were a very important part of the workforces and OTL lack of them forced the inclusion of asian and african male from the colonies and ITTL this is much much more difficult due to the Med being more a battleground

I want to add that OTL the Italians in addition as sending soldiers also sent to France thousands (one source I found say close to 100.000) "militarized workers" (basically convalescent soldiers) to help French manpower shortages. This worker was responsible for the building and maintenance of roads, rail tracks, digging trenches and lay down telephone and telegraph lines. Some also returned to fight to cover the losses of the T.A.I.F.
Without them France manpower shortage will be even worse.

 

[Wedgekree]

Yay, this is going on again! ... Also I have no remote presumption the Italians can capture NIce.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Yay, this is going on again! ... Also I have no remote presumption the Italians can capture NIce.

Thanks- it's great to be back. Italy won't be entering Nice anytime soon (if ever), though they might get it during the peace settlement.

 

[lukedalton]

Yay, this is going on again! ... Also I have no remote presumption the Italians can capture NIce.

It's WWI, it's not that even OTL the Entente conquered all Alsace and Lorreine or liberated Belgium, Nice is only the official objective, by now the real one is basically to dry out the French of men and resources

Btw, yep Malta with his base is a too important target to be left alone, so periodic bomber strike and MAS raid will be done to keep the ships in port and don't make the place available to launch operation against Italy

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Chapter XVI​

A Stay of Execution​

A stay of execution was granted to the defenders of Verdun when snow fell in sheets late into the evening of February 11. Machine-guns jammed in the cold, men were forced to dig out their trenches, and rations threatened to spoil. Visibility fell to a few paces. Crown Prince Wilhelm, commander of the Fifth Army, telegraphed to Berlin that attacking was impossible under these circumstances. This prompted a minor crisis within the German high command, as the Italian offensive in the Alps was scheduled to begin in only a few hours, and striking first would put the French on high alert. Falkenhayn agreed that attacking was impossible and agreed to a postponement, while sending frantic messages to Cadorna in Turin.

The Italian supremo's patience was lacking. He had prepared for this push for weeks, sent the CSI north as Germany requested, and had his men on stand-by. Intelligence reports suggested that the French were only just waking up to the threat across the Alps. Giving them another day or two- to say nothing of a week!- would make it that much harder when his men went over the top. Besides, pulling back from an offensive at the eleventh hour was not an easy thing to do. Men had to leave their frontline positions and return to barracks without breaking unit cohesion, rations and materiel had to be moved from ready-to-deploy forward positions to safe depots in the rear, and plans had to be reworked, all without alerting the enemy. If the French detected what was going on, a pre-emptive strike could be lethal. Operation Aquilla had to go ahead as planned, and if it alerted the defenders at Verdun- which was, after all, on the other end of France- then so be it.

Italy's bombardment at 0515 on February 12, 1916, just as Falkenhayn finished a telegram to Turin demanding the Italians hold off. He received word of the offensive half an hour after it begun, and broke military discipline with a bout of cursing which sent his adjutant out of the room for fear of physical violence (according to said adjutant's memoirs- Falkenhayn merely wrote that "he found this the gravest betrayal, one which confirmed all his worst suspicions about Italian perfidy." (1) The German Chief of Staff drafted a quick telegram to the commander of the Alpenkorps- under no circumstances were German troops to engage the French before the Verdun offensive, and all orders from Cadorna needed approval from Berlin. This violated German notions of decentralized command- especially prevalent among elite troops- but whatever trust Falkenhayn had for Cadorna was now gone. The Italian general had shown just how much Berlin's wishes meant to him, and while withdrawing the Alpenkorps would help no one, Falkenhayn had no reason to go out of his way to help the ungrateful junior partner.

The whole affair damaged Italo-German relations and led to a diplomatic spat after the fighting stopped. A myth developed in German military culture that had Cadorna waited, Germany's victory at Verdun could have broken the French Army- in fairness, the Italians had been given only a few hours notice to stop an army-level offensive for reasons which didn't directly affect them, something with which even the German machine would have struggled. It is easy to pin the subsequent carnage exclusively on Cadorna, but doing so raises all manner of questions. If we blame him for jumping ahead of schedule, fairness compels us to ask what would have happened had the French struck first? Might that not have broken the Italian army, reducing the pressure on the defenders of Verdun? Or, given the carnage of Artois and Champagne in the West, and Bardonnechia and Menton in the Alps, how much difference would it have made had Cadorna waited another nine days? Would Verdun not have had the same outcome- defeat for the French that nonetheless failed to break their army? Taking the German position to its logical conclusion requires one to accept that whatever advantage the French gained over the next nine days from reinforcements and heightened alertness made the difference between regrouping after defeat, and collapsing and losing the war- a position no historian has put into writing in the last hundred years.

An alternative theory has become popular in the last twenty-five years: that Cadorna's move may have actually eased Germany's task at Verdun. By the start of February 1916, the citadel's defenders were already on high alert (French artillerymen recall "the night the snow fell", they were standing by to launch counter-battery fire when the Germans inevitably began shelling). News that Italy had struck in the Alps may have increased their certainty that a fight was coming, but there is no evidence of material preparations stepping up in the nine days before the Germans struck. A debate brimming with irony emerged amongst the French high command over the next nine days: was this Italian move a distraction from what Germany was planning, or were they acting in isolation and reports of a German attack in the West were merely cover? Joseph Joffre believed the former and called for the continued reinforcement of Verdun, but many in the government feared an Italian breakthrough. War Minister Gallieni thought otherwise- though he may have just sought to spite Joffre, a former subordinate whose rise he resented- and after consulting with the Prime Minister, declared "no commitment" of France's strategic reserve. Thousands of good men would sit in railway sidings in the capital while the Germans prepared to strike Verdun, arriving only when it was too late. (2)

For good or for ill, the Italians had struck first. It only remained to be seen how the French would take it, and what the Germans could do with nine extra days. Had the fate of the war- and all of Europe- been altered by a little snow?

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

A smaller update written because what I had planned was really two chapters condensed into one- better to keep them separate- and also because this weekend has been a busy one and I didn't want to go without posting. Rest assured, I will think of all the damage done to German plans ITTL when I'm shovelling out my driveway this year...

I don't want to play up the "the Italians are incompetent!" trope to the point where it becomes more comical than realistic, and I get how one could take this as Cadorna being stupid for narrative effect. Not really the intent, and I do think he has a legitimate point in jumping ahead of schedule. I hadn't actually planned this little twist out, but when I was doing research and learned that Verdun was delayed because of snowfall, I realized I had something to play around with and here we are. I'm curious to hear your thoughts- have I depicted Cadorna unfairly here?

 

[lukedalton]

A smaller update written because what I had planned was really two chapters condensed into one- better to keep them separate- and also because this weekend has been a busy one and I didn't want to go without posting. Rest assured, I will think of all the damage done to German plans ITTL when I'm shovelling out my driveway this year...

I don't want to play up the "the Italians are incompetent!" trope to the point where it becomes more comical than realistic, and I get how one could take this as Cadorna being stupid for narrative effect. Not really the intent, and I do think he has a legitimate point in jumping ahead of schedule. I hadn't actually planned this little twist out, but when I was doing research and learned that Verdun was delayed because of snowfall, I realized I had something to play around with and here we are. I'm curious to hear your thoughts- have I depicted Cadorna unfairly here?

Honestly, it's not Cadorna the unreasonable one here and his reason are pretty much logic and stop an offensive of that level with so little alert not only is hardly possible but will have left the italian army in a worse position in case of French attack...basically here is Falkenayhm putting a tantrum including the message to the Alpenkorps as he know perfectely that if position were reversed he will have acted like the italians plus Berlin wish are not orders he also forget that

Regarding not playing up the tropes of the compentence of the italians, well if i want to be sincere, till now not a single thing had gone well for the italian armed forces and in the best case it was something near a drawn

 

[NoMommsen]

Would like to seconde @lukedalton here:

Cadorna is far from 'unreasonable' here given the alraeyd mentioned task of stopping aan almost already rumbling attack of this scale.​

If ... Falkenhayn would have acted as describeb actually he would have to be called 'unreasonable' in depriving Cadorna of one - given the seffperceived (ony ?) german 'superiority' - important means to bring his attack home.​

"... would ..." Without a doubt Falkenhayn was far from NOT having prejudices as described and 'low opinions' of other militaries (IOTL his preferred such persons were Hindenburg and Ludendorff more than IMHO any other military person) or even amotions and emotional outbreaks as described (though AFAIK never ever in front of someone not personally veery close) but he also never ever let such emotional parts of himself came into conflict with his professionalism. Some 'coldness' he was accused of by almost every other top brass, may it be bavarian, württembergian, prussian.

His professsionalism would have rather led him to see how this events could be brought to the best of use

- how the italian action might bring a success - esp. in killing as much french soldiers as possible by pushing the frontlines as far into french territory as possible​

- thereby increasing the chance that whatever reserves the french have might be deployed in the south BEFORE they could be brought to any effect at Verdun when he finally starts the german attack (and something around 10 days might well be enough for these reserves being chained to the southern front)​

Therefore ... after having 'lived out' his ravage he still migth have ordered Krafft v. Dellmensingen as chief of the AlpenKorps not to follow Cadornas orders at least not too much directly but ... in the 'prussian' way to look where and when he as the commander at the spot might see the possiblity/chance offered by the 'fog o' war' to grab for pushing the/a victory home.
... and especially not first waiting for whatever wee order on details from the german Great Headquarter (which would have still been at Teschen or back on the western front at Charleville-Mézières but certainly not at Berlin).
Such 'insubordination' - Dellmensingen not following orders by the word and immediatly - might still offend Cadorna but ... who cares'? ... esp. not the prussian/german Chief of the Great General Staff. This might still be the best way to get the best out of the situation.

Some sulky general withdrawing of the Alpenkorps ... very much contrary to Falkenhayns always shown professionalism.

 

[Belka DNW]

Watch Cardona tell the CSI to the same and sit out the offensive

 

[AntoniousTheBro]

Honestly, it's not Cadorna the unreasonable one here and his reason are pretty much logic and stop an offensive of that level with so little alert not only is hardly possible but will have left the italian army in a worse position in case of French attack...basically here is Falkenayhm putting a tantrum including the message to the Alpenkorps as he know perfectely that if position were reversed he will have acted like the italians plus Berlin wish are not orders he also forget that

Regarding not playing up the tropes of the compentence of the italians, well if i want to be sincere, till now not a single thing had gone well for the italian armed forces and in the best case it was something near a drawn

if there was one thing Cadorna new very well it was logistics. for as poor of a front line commander he was he was a logistical wizard. he pioneered many the logistical tactics that would become commonplace. hell the artillery method of calculation and counter bombardment he used was adopted otl by the brits and french for 1918. HOWEVER, the man was horrendous for moral and not tactically adept. However, he is 100% the reasonable party. you can't call off a full offensive on such stupidly small time frame and not expect it too massively hinder capacity.

and in terms of competence. i completely agree, which is strange because ww1 was the war they performed far better in

 

[RedLegion]

I'm curious to hear your thoughts- have I depicted Cadorna unfairly here?

I'm surprised to say this but, in this case, I'm 100% on Cadorna's side. Falkenhayn is just acting like a, and I'm using a technical term, petty little bitch.

The Italian had already started the preparatory bombardment by the time the Germans informed them of the delay, how the hell can someone expect to stop the attack at that point. Falkenhayn should be the one to explain why he waited so much to call off the attack if the weather was so bad, they didn't have meteorologists in Germany?

On an unrelated note, the Italians have any plans for Corsica? It's closer to Italy than France, and an invasion was part of the pre-WW1 planning in case of war against France.
The Regia Marina got a bloody nose of course, but the Marine national is almost equally battered and has also to cover the Atlantic and apparently the already low population was bleed white of able bodied men to fight in the mainland so I think a landing could be possible, even as a way to give to the people a win after the continuous meatgrinder of the alps.
And Corsicans have more in common with Sardinians than with mainland French so whatever home militia is left probably wouldn't fight to the death as long as the Italians maintain a minimum of discipline and don't start to attack the locals.

 

[AntoniousTheBro]

I'm surprised to say this but, in this case, I'm 100% on Cadorna's side. Falkenhayn is just acting like, and I'm using a technical term, a petty little bitch.

The Italian had already started the preparatory bombardment by the time the Germans informed them of the delay, how the hell can someone expect to stop the attack at that point. Falkenhayn should be the one to explain why he waited so much to call off the attack if the weather was so bad, they didn't have meteorologists in Germany?

On an unrelated note, the Italians have any plans for Corsica? It's closer to Italy than France, and an invasion was part of the pre-WW1 planning in case of war against France.
The Regia Marina got a bloody nose of course, but the Marine national is almost equally battered and has also to cover the Atlantic and apparently the already low population was bleed white of going men to fight in the mainland so I think a landing could be possible, even as a way to give to the people a win after the continuous meatgrinder of the alps.
And Corsicans have more in common with Sardinians than with mainland French so whatever home militia is left probably wouldn't fight to the death as long as the Italians maintain a minimum of discipline and don't start to attack the locals.

agreed

 

[pls don't ban me]

Italian politics are… something else.

i live with them. On a daily basis.

 

[Quinkana]

-1916 will be a "mirror" of OTL. Not the last year of the war, but the year in which the balance flips, and after which one side is clearly on the defensive without a path to victory, only survival. Only difference is, that's the Entente instead of the Germans.

so ig afterwards the only ones who're standing are the brits and they have problems launching a amphibious landing on the European mainland in general. I wonder if that'd make Britain focus on their overseas colonies and become more and more like the US in being isolationist.

-The Brusilov Offensive will still happen, but it won't be the steamroller of OTL (Czernowitz and the Bukovina mines, for example, will stay firmly under Habsburg control). I don't see Russia collapsing in 1916 just because it won't be a priority. Romania has no reason to join either side, though as you pointed out, it might join the Central Powers at the eleventh hour just to snatch Bessarabia.

I think even with Russian successes the Entente know they're fucked, as France is the main way Britain is able to be a combatant at all, they're not able to move their materiel and men to Russia at all.

-The difference with 1.0 is that Petain will pull back before it's too late- this will cost him his career but stave off mutiny... for now. A political disaster but militarily sound.\

ooh interesting, Petain being forced off would only make France's fall worse though.

-I don't forsee a Peruvian Revolution ITTL, though that timeline does sound intriguing.

-"Italy joins the Entente and the war lasts until November 1918? Perish the thought!"

yeah exactly lol.

-The earliest Austria-Hungary could possibly start to fall apart is 1927, when the Compromise with Hungary comes up for review (by which point both FJ and Karl will be dead). A lot will need to go wrong before then, but it's definitely within the realm of possibility. As for the Ottomans, I can actually see them doing quite well if they have a generation without the rest of Europe breathing down their necks. A lot depends on how much of Arabia and Mesopotamia the British can take before signing a peace with Germany- but it's worth noting that the Empire survived for several years after making peace with the Entente. So "killing off" is unlikely, but "reducing in size and power to a Turkish core" is definitely possible.

hmm that makes sense, I think the Austrian-Hungarian empire did have critical failure points that would allow it to fall.

On the Ottomans I don't think the Ottomans could've gotten the money to keep the empire together. With America not coming in (especially since they're isolationist) and the British and French looking inwards I think they could collapse to only the core turkish territories (with or without East Thrace) due to Arabic sentiments to build their own state, and the Turks probably would retreat back to just anatolia (with or without kurdistan).

I'll spoil this one- the Brits occupied Eritrea/Somaliland in chapter XI and have no intention of giving it back.

On an unrelated note, the Italians have any plans for Corsica? It's closer to Italy than France, and an invasion was part of the pre-WW1 planning in case of war against France.
The Regia Marina got a bloody nose of course, but the Marine national is almost equally battered and has also to cover the Atlantic and apparently the already low population was bleed white of able bodied men to fight in the mainland so I think a landing could be possible, even as a way to give to the people a win after the continuous meatgrinder of the alps.
And Corsicans have more in common with Sardinians than with mainland French so whatever home militia is left probably wouldn't fight to the death as long as the Italians maintain a minimum of discipline and don't start to attack the locals.

I think Corsica would be great for Italy and tbf it'd make the French feel the defeat is mutilated.

but, I think it is really hard for Italy to do anything to Corsica itself, the Royal Navy isn't going to be able to do a serious amphibious operation. The only thing I could see happen is a Corsican uprising that Italy supports, but I don't think WWI would last that long for the Corsicans and Italians to get the French off the island.

The Italian had already started the preparatory bombardment by the time the Germans informed them of the delay, how the hell can someone expect to stop the attack at that point. Falkenhayn should be the one to explain why he waited so much to call off the attack if the weather was so bad, they didn't have meteorologists in Germany?

Yeah the Italians attacking a few days earlier really won't change much other than making things more horrific for the French. His masterplan would still have worked since French blood is being spilt in the Alps.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

I would say so, yes (Italy will actually lose territory in the final peace settlement).

Something is making me think that Italy could turn into TTL's version of Imperial Japan by the 1930s or 1940s. Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds regardless of what path they choose to go down.

 

[Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth]

Something is making me think that Italy could turn into TTL's version of Imperial Japan by the 1930s or 1940s. Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds regardless of what path they choose to go down.

I don’t have super detailed plans for anything that far ahead, but you’re in the ballpark. A lot of ingratitude and bad blood with nominal allies, resentment that victory wasn’t more glorious or better rewarded, etc, leading to political instability behind a figurehead monarch. Fascism could still rise in TTL’s Italy.

I don’t know if the potential is there for a serious Army-Navy rivalry and Italy’s power projection will never equal Japan’s, but your analogy holds.

 

[Drizzt]

Wow. And here we thought it couldn't be done: Our esteemed author made us readers side with Cadorna without needing ASBs.
He's probably going to write a realistic successful Sealion TL next 😏.

 

[President Earl Warren]

With all the talk of American intervention being horrible for immigrants, I have an amusing image for you: Propagnda claiming that the Catholic Church is working hand in hand with the Italian government to destroy the American people. It’s utterly rediculous to anyone who knows even slightly about the situation but by god, it will still be made.

 

[lukedalton]

I don’t have super detailed plans for anything that far ahead, but you’re in the ballpark. A lot of ingratitude and bad blood with nominal allies, resentment that victory wasn’t more glorious or better rewarded, etc, leading to political instability behind a figurehead monarch. Fascism could still rise in TTL’s Italy.

I don’t know if the potential is there for a serious Army-Navy rivalry and Italy’s power projection will never equal Japan’s, but your analogy holds.

Well the difference between the Japanese Emperor and the Italian King is that the Italian King hold real lawfull political power and it's involved in the political life and he is a figurehead only if he want to be (like OTL for a lot of the fascist period).
Regarding interservice rivalry, well yes exist (even because resources are limited and both want their share) and as i said earlier during the fascist period was greatly fostered by Benny as a mean to avoid military coup...but even at his worst never reached the Japanese level .

Bad Blood with A-H is a given in any scenario, everybody on both side know that the CP membership for Italy was due to fear for France and that Wien and Rome never stopped let's say 'not liking each other' and that a war between them is always a strong probability. Relations with Germany goind downhill due to the war and the rewards (not) obtained is a strong possibility, nevertheless nobody in Rome is that stupid believing that they can stand up to Germany and A-H alone and so open official hostility is very difficult to get in a situation when the rest of the power in the continent are down...so at most it's grumbling neutrality but without full break up unless there is an alternative alliance possible as there is the looming possibility of an attack by A-H to get rid of the last serious pretender to her territory.
Hell OTL one reason to not immediately partecipate in the war at the CP side or remain fully neutral was the fear that once all was ended, A-H with German support will have attacked us