allanpcameron
Donor
One of the things I've been keeping an eye on is the convoys coming from Canada. One of the ships sunk had a load of motor vehicles. That's part of the equation. Yes, Canadian trucks will play a large part, as OTL, its just getting them to Egypt that is part of the problem.It's really a moot point over the long term about using "borrowed" vehicles seeing as the supply of parts will soon dry up and the flood of trucks from Canada is under way.If you average Canadian production over the whole war you get 10,000 trucks a month and 38% of that went to the British forces leading to 80% of trucks in North Africa being from Canada.
You can do math(s) in your head. I salute you, Sir! Thank God for the calculator app on the computer.Doing math in my head. Yes, you are right.
Speculation about how far O'Connor might get is interesting. I suppose the question is what state he's in is another part of that.Sirte would be phenomenal, but I'm not sure they could get there in time to dig in. And even if they could, keeping them supplied would be difficult. Did Sirte have a port at this time?
I'm wondering about this too. Did Hitler hasten the deployment with the British victories, and therefore will he likewise hasten deployment because here the victories are sooner than OTL?Basically I'm going on Afrika Korps arriving as per OTL on 11 January earliest and how long it would take to drive from Tobruk to Sirte assuming Tobruk falls 3 January. In 1942 excluding battles that took 22 days. So say the WDF could be in Sirte by the end of January. Which would give the AK 20 days to form up and move down from Tripoli which looks about right. Anything else requires a tardier Rommel (unlikely) or a complete collapse of Italian morale (more likely but not a given)
Which is actually an impressive piece of work by the Germans, getting the force sorted and moved.11th January was when Hitler issued his directive to send a blocking force to North Africa. It then took time to decide on who what where and when it would all take place.
The first DAK convoy did not sail from Naples until 8th February and IIRC Rommel was only told he was to command on 8th Feb.
The main striking force of the DAK , the tanks, did not arrive in Tripoli until convoys 8 & 9 docked on 10th and 12th March. PZ Regt 5 with 25 Pz I, 45 Pz II and 61 Pz III with 17 PZ IV was not available before then. It sailed from Naples on 5th and 7th March but was held at Palermo while the RN was conducting operations in the area.
Prior to that the HQ tanks of PZ Regt 5 had sailed from Naples on 27th Feb but they comprised only 2 Pz II, 3 Pz III and 2 PZ IV. The Divisional Recon unit had arrived with it's motorcycles and Armoured cars and I believe a Flak Bn had also arrived by mid Feb,
There is an argument that the tanks began Op Compass in a better state ITTL than OTL. More A9 and A10 cruisers, less Mark VI. Less mileage on the clock and tracks on the tanks. The Valiant I* are all new, compared to the cruisers that were actually sent. Likewise 2nd Armoured Division. Plus the Valiant infantry tanks. But yes, 200 miles so far over rough ground will take its toll. It's another 250 miles to Benghazi.One thing that is likely to slow the British down is simple wear-and-tear on the tanks, particularly the tracks. Somehow, I don't see them getting that much further than OTL, if only due to this.
You can say that again, and again, and again.the elephant in the room.logistics and maintenance.
The bigger problem to deal with, before the arrival of DAK, is the Luftwaffe. The arrival of Fliegerkorps X from Norway on 8 January changes things for the Royal Navy, and everyone else.Yep. They'll do better to be sure, maybe getting as far as Ra's Lanuf before halting, the main part of 'do better' will be not breaking if/when the Germans attack, but instead, fending it off, and either forcing a stalemate, or causing a German retreat (preferably the latter).
From there then, it's a case of slowly building up for a later attack. Fortunately, the entire road is coastal, so any attacks can be aided by the RN, who I'm sure will be perfectly happy to help out, and won't in any way get the slightest bit smug about it.
The old problem as the Italians retreat towards their main base of operations things get better for them, as the British get further from theirs, things get harder for them.The italian 10th army was pretty much destroyed in operation compass.
The other italian army in libya, the 5th, had contributed a lot of units transferred to the 10th....
b) there was enough to be able to defend against exhausted troops in worn tanks who had outrun their supplies
Yes, here tracks are better, and tanks are reliable. When Rommel attacked the British armoured force was a joke. Here it won't be quite as funny. Bardia's water was same OTL TTL, the harbour facilities weren't intact, looking at you HMS Aphis.The railway track grade steel will reduce track wear ITTL, plus the tanks are more reliable so maybe 25% further/sooner is realistic. Hard to put a number on it as there has been some domino tipping already. The water supply surviving at Bardia improves the logistic situation a great deal. Less truck journey miles to carry water amd fuel to carry water. More Italian trucks to help make those journeys. The harbour facilities intact is another departure from OTL. Faster use of ports - even minor ones, increase the ship leg of the supply journey from Alexandria.
As it was OTL, so it is TTL.The capture of other supplies - particularly POL will help matters as well. The British tanks run about 2/3 on petrol and the other third on Dieso. The Italians used both fuels IIRC. There would not have been time to destroy their POL dump at Bardia. It would have been captured intact which would have reduces some need to carry fuel from Egypt, forward.
Homs! Best part of 1000 miles. Doubt it.That means they may get to Homs - it's still a long way to Tripoli and the danger is a worm out WDF meeting fresh (but inexperienced) AK units on the road to Tripoli
Tempting, very, very tempting. "Get behind me Satan" springs to mind.There may be a POD here that could help. I did say the convoys were held up in Palermo while the RN carried out operations in the area. What if the harbour-masters decided it was safe to send a convoy across to Tripoli and the RN forces blundered into it. Bang goes about half of the DAK initial AFVs. Up to our esteemed author of course!
Thank you, I appreciate it. Sticking it to the Nazis is the best fun ever. (Well...you know what I mean). But this is my first foray into non-ASB, so I'm trying my best to keep it real-ish.However, as this whole Timeline is based on a tank designer surviving, I can see why the OP may want to ignore this. And I understand why he may want to keep the North Africa fanboys at bay. It is after all his vision of what a small matter can affect the future. Dare I say, for want of a nail? And he has followed this principle exceedingly well.
Interesting thing is what the Italians are thinking. It seems that their assessment of the British forces in Egypt is much greater than it actually was. The way they've lost so many many so quickly will probably reinforce that. So do they double down and try to reinforce defeat, or will they withdraw quicker here?SO the British getting to Tripoli before the Germans isn't going to happen. No matter what there will have to be a halt somewhere. The British do have quite a lot going for them ITTL however.
As it stands we are 3 weeks ahead of OTL. If nothing else changes Britain will reach El Aghelia on the 19th of January. Not that other things wont change. The faster advance will likely catch Italian units and positions completely flat footed.
Wavell and Churchill will probably want to have their thoughts on this taken into account. Wavell is looking in February towards Sudan. Churchill is still looking at Greece. Just taking Cyrenaica is huge. And, despite things being better, Hutchison was given one month to plan for. Compass kicked off 8 December, that month is almost up.What does this all mean, well a quicker resumption of the advance. Britain can't just decide it is going to Tripoli and set off. Supply dumps and maintenance stations lines of communication etc need setting up on the way. How easy this is depends on what sort of resistance the Italians are able to mount. If they aren't able to mount any sort of serious and organised resistance the British will know. Patrolling will give the British an idea of what is in front of them and it likely won't be much. At that point while a large portion of the WDF may sit in place resting and refitting before the next big move I would not be surprised to see a smaller formation sent ahead to capture convenient locations for supply dumps etc. Think of it as a reminiscence in force that is laying the groundwork for the main force to move up behind. Then when the main force does mover it has supplies of food, POL and water ready to supplement those it is bringing with it. How far that advance force Might go depends but Sirte is as good a place as any to aim for and set up a more permanent base of operations to launch the next push from. It is pretty much half way from El Aghelia and Misrata so as a point to move the main force too before starting the next push it may well be considered convenient.
This is where sorting out butterflies from OTL actions is interesting. The British, starting with planning a 5 day raid, go form Marsa Metruh on 9 December all the way to El Agheila on 9 February. It's a bit like the fall of France, O'Connor seems to roll a lot of sixes.
Here, it could be argued that things should go even better, since O'Connor is starting off from a better level of preparation and equipment. However, as @alfredtuomi mentioned the elephant in the room is logistics and maintenance. We'll just need to keep tuned to see what happens. I include myself in that, I have no idea, just making it up as I go along as usual.
Thanks again for your interest and support
Allan