Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

[HappyChappy]

The impact on Barbarossa wont be the men so much as the trucks. In OTL, they really couldn't use many more men at the front due to logistic bottlenecks, but more trucks will be very useful. The men saved will likely come into play later on as available reinforcements.

Agreed it’s vehicles and aircraft that the Germans have ITTL that might make a difference.

Once Libya is taken I imagine they’ll be badgering the Italians to start defensive works in Sicily, and they’ll probably have a year to prepare before the Allies can invade.

Mussolini is going to be under pressure as he took Italy into a war that most Italians wanted no part in, and all he has to show for it is some Balkan territory while losing almost all of the overseas empire in just over a year. However I don’t think anything drastic will happen yet, not until the fall of Sicily/the USA enters the war/the realisation that Soviet Union won’t collapse (delete as applicable.)

 

[Icedaemon]

With both the reduction in need for tanks given the lack of fighting in Europe, a better situation in overall tank numbers and the new source of US tanks will allow Britain to contemplate a wholesale switch to the Victor in 1942. Why keep producing a now 2nd class tank if you don't have too. Even with some production remaining for Lend Lease and a bit for the Far East Britain has the industrial Capacity to have all it's armoured divisions using home grown tanks by the time any continental invasion happens. If any action is planned for 1942 then I suspect that Britain will use M4's briefly, this is for shipping reasons more than anything.

Stopping production completely even if there is no active theatre is not realistic. They might scale down on it, but there will still be things to do - outfitting the last few units equipped with outdated vehicles, or vehicles which have been damaged or simply badly worn down in training or action, will continue until the first Victors start rolling off the production lines. Even those older tanks which are otherwise in good condition will likely see a switch over to the 6-pounder turret. At least spare parts for Valiants will likely be in production until 1943 if not 1944. If the Victor does take the Valiant's place as the primary fighting vehicle, plenty of remaining Valiants might be converted to Valiant II* or suchlike cavalry tanks.

 

[Merrick]

Do anti-aircraft batteries (including ones to protect southeast England) count in the figures as 'army but not frontline troops'?

They do, and there's no doubt that the Anglo-American armies in 1944-5 ended up with way more AA than they needed and were slow to convert surplus AA units to orthodox artillery/infantry. But it's not clear to me why such units would make a up a significantly higher proportion of the army in 1944-5 than they had in 1941-2. After October 1944, when the V-1 launch sites were overrun, the German air threat to the UK was negligible.

 

[pjmidd]

They do, and there's no doubt that the Anglo-American armies in 1944-5 ended up with way more AA than they needed and were slow to convert surplus AA units to orthodox artillery/infantry. But it's not clear to me why such units would make a up a significantly higher proportion of the army in 1944-5 than they had in 1941-2. After October 1944, when the V-1 launch sites were overrun, the German air threat to the UK was negligible.

Those AA units based in the UK were unfortunately hollowed out for replacements ( older and/or not wholly fit men as well as being understrength ). By 1944 there were not many men suitable for overseas duty in them.

 

[MarcH]

Stopping production completely even if there is no active theatre is not realistic. They might scale down on it, but there will still be things to do - outfitting the last few units equipped with outdated vehicles, or vehicles which have been damaged or simply badly worn down in training or action, will continue until the first Victors start rolling off the production lines. Even those older tanks which are otherwise in good condition will likely see a switch over to the 6-pounder turret. At least spare parts for Valiants will likely be in production until 1943 if not 1944. If the Victor does take the Valiant's place as the primary fighting vehicle, plenty of remaining Valiants might be converted to Valiant II* or suchlike cavalry tanks.

It wouldn't be a complete stop on one day, more a fast rolling conversion to making Victors.
Britain has a few things going for it both right now and in the near future to enable a fast change over in production.

• Lower losses combined with higher production means tank availability is better than OTL. If things stay like that it will only improve and Britain have a decent stockpile of tanks already.
• If fighting in North Africa finishes sooner rather than later then pretty much every tank built is going to be building up numbers, potentially for a couple of months which is not insignificant.
• If the only active fighting for most of 1942 is in the Far East then the requirement for tanks will be lower allowing a more aggressive changeover schedule.
• Their is the potential for Australian and Canadian production to take up some of the strain in terms of supplying tanks to the Far East. That will also be a major help to Britain in allowing a faster changeover.
• American production is the biggest thing offering Britain an ability to switch over tank production quickly.
• M4 production sent to Britain allows units to either form on or switch to the M4 for training purposes. That these tanks won't see combat means that Britain can get by with a limited amount in the short term to make up the numbers rather than loosing them in combat.
• M4 production sent out east allows for any shortfall in Dominion Valiant production to be made up. Why use an A12 or A15 if you have a Sherman available for instance.

It is important to note that I am not suggesting that Britain will decide that on this particular Friday we stop making all tanks and on Monday we start converting to making Victor's en-masse. Rather that Britain can more aggressively shut down production of tanks it knows it does not want. The A12, A15 and A24 are the first likely casualties and once those production lines have switched (or moved on from tank production if needed) then the Valiant production can start to wind down beyond the specialty vehicles etc.

 

[marathag]

When the time comes to build the Victor, US production will be ramping up, and the question won't be "is it a good tank?" or even "is it a better tank than the M4?" but "is it sufficiently better than the Shermans that the Americans are handing out like candy to be worth transferring production resources from other priorities?" It won't even be a question of saving hard currency by "building British" because if they decide to build 15,000 Victors they'll have to Lend-Lease more of something else.

Now OTL, the US was planning to update the M4 as soon as it was rolling off the assembly, but it's success pretty much stopped that, leading to the slow rollout of the T20 series.
Now the Victor would be what the M4 would be compared with, not the British horribles like Covenanter, and the US will be more willing to keep up with upgrading, and not stick with M4 Spam.

as for the US not building British, look at the 6 pounder. It filled a niche that the US had nothing to match.
the Victor could also be one of those things, an easy to manufacture, reliable, combat effective universal tank

 

[CB13]

Just my take, but I think with less of an emergency, instead of direct tank production in the United States (which would require payment in $USD or Gold), it would be far more likely to push a Canadian Industrialization plan where US Companies setup branch plants in Ontario. Those plants would not only develop a new production capacity in Canada but also would butterfly into significant immigration of skilled people from the United States to man those factories. That was all payment can be made in Pounds and because of the proximity to existing facilities in the USA, parts and sub-assemblies can be imported to accelerate production as needed.

 

[HappyChappy]

They might keep Valiant production up if the Soviets ask for them, like they did with the Valentine. Lots of the workers in British factories would be very happy to oblige.

 

[X Oristos]

The Canadian built tanks were a whole different beast. The Valiant Mark IA*, designed by Vickers in England, was a cruiser tank, but unlike the British version it was powered by a diesel engine built by Cummins in Columbus, Indiana, USA. The first trickle of tanks had started to arrive at Camp Boden in December. These had been used primarily to familiarise the men with the maintenance and care of all elements of the tank. Some parts of tanks had been coming over the last few months, so that the engine, gun and radios would be already familiar to the crews before the complete tanks arrived.

The Angus Shops of the Canadian Pacific Railway Company in Montreal were hoping to get production up to between 60 and 75 of these tanks per month.

After some discussion among the gathered Generals, they agreed to recommend that the American medium tanks would be offered in the first instance to the Australian, Indian and possibly South African and New Zealand Armoured Divisions or Brigades. If they were being shipped across the Pacific, they were more likely to be delivered safely. Between the factories in Britain and Canada, it was estimated that the needs of the British and Canadian Tank and Armoured formations could be met from domestic production, at least in the short to medium term. If something changed, and more tanks had to come from America, then that decision could be made quite quickly.

By word of the author, the canadian production of Valiants is going pretty good. We also know that american medium tanks would equip the Australian Armoured Division that is being formed. In OTL the first M3 Lee/Grant shipment of 200 tanks arrived at Egypt at early 1942. So we may have an Australian armoured brigade equiped with Stuarts in summer 1941 with a second one with Grants in early 1942. Perhaps the first action of the Grants will take place in Java or Timor.

 

[kelgar04]

It wouldn't be a complete stop on one day, more a fast rolling conversion to making Victors.
Britain has a few things going for it both right now and in the near future to enable a fast change over in production.

• Lower losses combined with higher production means tank availability is better than OTL. If things stay like that it will only improve and Britain have a decent stockpile of tanks already.
• If fighting in North Africa finishes sooner rather than later then pretty much every tank built is going to be building up numbers, potentially for a couple of months which is not insignificant.
• If the only active fighting for most of 1942 is in the Far East then the requirement for tanks will be lower allowing a more aggressive changeover schedule.
• Their is the potential for Australian and Canadian production to take up some of the strain in terms of supplying tanks to the Far East. That will also be a major help to Britain in allowing a faster changeover.
• American production is the biggest thing offering Britain an ability to switch over tank production quickly.
• M4 production sent to Britain allows units to either form on or switch to the M4 for training purposes. That these tanks won't see combat means that Britain can get by with a limited amount in the short term to make up the numbers rather than loosing them in combat.
• M4 production sent out east allows for any shortfall in Dominion Valiant production to be made up. Why use an A12 or A15 if you have a Sherman available for instance.

It is important to note that I am not suggesting that Britain will decide that on this particular Friday we stop making all tanks and on Monday we start converting to making Victor's en-masse. Rather that Britain can more aggressively shut down production of tanks it knows it does not want. The A12, A15 and A24 are the first likely casualties and once those production lines have switched (or moved on from tank production if needed) then the Valiant production can start to wind down beyond the specialty vehicles etc.

I think given the breathing room given if North Africa is taken earlier means higher production and reserves of everything which also means more stuff can be given out to both forces in exile and kept back for new British and commonwealth forces. On top of this with reduced pressure it means more can go into R&D in some respects which means better equipment will get into the hands of the Solider's, Sailors and Airmen of the allies quicker than it did OTL to some degree since heck you don’t need to divert as much to manufacturing.

TBH I don’t envy Allan trying to work out the butterflies even if he is purely focusing on British armour the political effects alone from a shorter North Africa and African campaigns will be pretty substantial.

 

[The Wooksta!]

They'll keep production going, if only to keep the workforce together. Bristols had to churn out over a hundred worthless Buckingham medium bombers, most simply parked with no engines or instruments, to keep the workforce together until Brigand tooling was complete and production could start.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Not sure if the Italian casualties will be much less, most of these will be captured when NA falls. The German losses will be much smaller (the men just wont be there). British and Free French lower as well. Of course, without NA the US Army will feed green troops into action in probably much tougher circumstances, that wont help them at all.

The impact on Barbarossa wont be the men so much as the trucks. In OTL, they really couldn't use many more men at the front due to logistic bottlenecks, but more trucks will be very useful. The men saved will likely come into play later on as available reinforcements.

Italian political effects will be fun. Would the far higher than German troop losses mean Italy doesn't contribute men to Barbarossa? Losing even more quickly than OTL would certainly cause waves in Italian politics, the result of which we'll hav eto wait and see.

While it's true that the Germans won't lose so many trucks in Africa there are some negatives for them . They will have captured less British transport in France (some evacuated, more destroyed rather than captured). Also, even a small increase in French morale in France could lead to fewer working vehicless captured due to sabotage.
Higher German tank and other vehicle losses in France need replacement which ties up limited automotive industry resources.
One interesting aspect of early allied victory in N Africa is what this means for Vichy. Early allied victory makes declaring for Free France more tempting. It also increases the pressure on Germany to fully take over Vichy or even to invade Tunisia to retain a holdon Africa. But that clearly breaches the armistice, requires military action and occupation forces when about to invade the Soviet Union, and risks Vichy territories declaring for the Allies. No more Syria, Djibouti, etc frees up Allied troops and improves ease of movement of allied shipping. All sorts of intriguing ripples from a handful of tanks!

 

[diesal]

The British lost 35k dead plus 220 k wounded or captured, assuming that the losses are 30% less that’s another 76.5 k available for service. Those men retained are veterans and so will be more effective in the future, also a number of the best 8th army divisions were exhausted by 1944 and didn’t perform as well as they had been expected to. Sadly the two types cartoons won’t be as good as they were in OTL

 

[diesal]

This series and Montgomery’s memoir was my introduction to the desert war.

 

[MattII]

The British lost 35k dead plus 220 k wounded or captured, assuming that the losses are 30% less that’s another 76.5 k available for service. Those men retained are veterans and so will be more effective in the future, also a number of the best 8th army divisions were exhausted by 1944 and didn’t perform as well as they had been expected to. Sadly the two types cartoons won’t be as good as they were in OTL

Hm, if North Africa is done by the end of '41, what do you think the chances are of the 4th Indian Division being sent to Burma or Malaya? I'm sure that even without local knowledge, having battle-hardened soldiers around might give a morale boost to greener units.

 

[allanpcameron]

3 June 1941. Leyland, England.

Henry Spurrier III, who had responsibility for all Leyland’s tank projects, bowed to His Majesty King George VI and beamed as photographers took their photo together in front of the plaque marking the opening of the factory. Afterwards Henry III, as he was known, was happy to show the dignitaries around the new tank shop built to produce eighty tanks per month. It had taken a year from the breaking of the ground to the completion of the factory, the acquiring and fitting of the machine tools, and the training of its workers, especially in the new skill of welding.

The King, with Queen Elizabeth, the Prime Minister and a flock of military and civilian guests once they had completed the official opening and given speeches, began a guided tour of the factory. Although the official opening was today, work on building tanks had been going on from as soon as it was possible. The tour began at a completed Valiant I* Cruiser tank which as being loaded onto a railway flat car, and then followed the process all the way back to the beginning. The workers had been well briefed beforehand about what to say in answer to questions, and Queen Elizabeth was particularly keen to talk to the women on the production line.

The Prime Minister noted that the shape of the turret changed at one point in the production line, and the foreman explained that this was the Valiant II* turret designed to take the 6-pdr gun. The Mark I* version at the end of the line were among the last of the original order for 251 tanks given in June 1940 to be completed by July 1941. The hope was that this new factory, adding to the original tank shop that could only build 24 per month, would mean that the order would be finished ahead of schedule. In due course the factory would be focused on the Valiant II* until the Victor was ready to be put into production. The advantage of the Valiant II* was that the hull, suspension and engine were all the same. All that changed was the size and layout of the turret able to carry the more powerful gun.

General John Dill (CIGS) had to take the Prime Minister apart from the larger group as Winston Churchill had one of his bright ideas. Having listened patiently, a skill he had had to cultivate since taking the job, Dill agreed that he would look into the possibility, fearing another ‘action this day’ memo. The Prime Minister however had the bit between his teeth. If all the current Valiant I and I* only needed a new turret with the new gun to make them II and II*, then why not build a whole lot more turrets and send them out to North Africa to upgrade the tanks already there?

Henry Spurrier was asked to join what was obviously becoming a somewhat heated debate. General Dill was probably hoping that there was a simple explanation of why this might be impossible, but in the absence of the design engineers, Spurrier could only agree that it was certainly worth thinking about. Dill knew well enough that the fundamental problem was that there just weren’t enough 6-pdrs being made. The decision, of the Prime Minister, to keep producing 2-pdrs after Dunkirk had effectively put the 6-pdr on the back burner.

Churchill knew from the after-action reports from Operation Brevity that the 2-pdr was struggling to penetrate the face-hardened armour of the panzers. Dill assured him that the fix, an APC and APCBC round for the 2-pdr, was being produced and rushed out to Libya. As for production of 6-pdrs, the fact that Vickers had been able to make some, without lowering their numbers of 2-pdrs, was remarkable in itself. Dill knew that the Vickers production was soon to be joined by a new Royal Ordnance Factory which had the means to produce these new guns. The reason that the Valiant II and II* were not due to be produced in any numbers until after the summer was to allow that new source of 6-pdrs to come on stream.

In an attempt to distract the Prime Minister, Spurrier mentioned that the plant’s main focus would only be on the Valiant II* for a short period of time. Plans for the new Victor were well advanced and Spurrier was keen to promote his own involvement, along with Roy Robotham of Rolls Royce, in the creation of the Meteor engine for the Victor. While the engine developed from the Napier Lion in the Valiant was much better than what had gone before, the Meteor would outclass it significantly. Leyland had a big hand in turning the Merlin engine into a tank engine. Three of the Leyland’s best designers were working closely with the Rolls Royce team at Clan Foundry, Belper, to bring the Meteor to fruition. Once again Dill cringed as the Prime Minister began to fixate on the numbers of this engine, and how it would be built without eating into the Merlin production which was essential for all the aircraft that needed it. Spurrier was more confident on this ground and explained to the Prime Minister the complex negotiations between Vickers, Leyland, Rover, Perkins and Ford to solve that very problem. At this point, King George’s aide came over to remind the small group that the rest of the party was getting impatient. Duly chastened the rest of the tour was completed and as the last of the dignitaries’ cars left the factory, Spurrier and his team retired to the conference room where stiff drinks were the order of the day.

 

[MattII]

Well, it doesn't look like Britain is going to be slowing down one bit between the Valiant II (and II*), and the start of the Victor. That's probably a good thing, as the USA will end up charging you for the tank, sooner or later. Plus, any tank produced in Britain is one you didn't have to import.

 

[kelgar04]

Will be a drop on the bucket though where lend lease is concerned still though with more tanks surviving it means some more production and materials can be shifted to other projects.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Well, it doesn't look like Britain is going to be slowing down one bit between the Valiant II (and II*), and the start of the Victor. That's probably a good thing, as the USA will end up charging you for the tank, sooner or later. Plus, any tank produced in Britain is one you didn't have to import.

3 June 1941. Leyland, England.

Henry Spurrier III, who had responsibility for all Leyland’s tank projects, bowed to His Majesty King George VI and beamed as photographers took their photo together in front of the plaque marking the opening of the factory. Afterwards Henry III, as he was known, was happy to show the dignitaries around the new tank shop built to produce eighty tanks per month. It had taken a year from the breaking of the ground to the completion of the factory, the acquiring and fitting of the machine tools, and the training of its workers, especially in the new skill of welding.

The King, with Queen Elizabeth, the Prime Minister and a flock of military and civilian guests once they had completed the official opening and given speeches, began a guided tour of the factory. Although the official opening was today, work on building tanks had been going on from as soon as it was possible. The tour began at a completed Valiant I* Cruiser tank which as being loaded onto a railway flat car, and then followed the process all the way back to the beginning. The workers had been well briefed beforehand about what to say in answer to questions, and Queen Elizabeth was particularly keen to talk to the women on the production line.

The Prime Minister noted that the shape of the turret changed at one point in the production line, and the foreman explained that this was the Valiant II* turret designed to take the 6-pdr gun. The Mark I* version at the end of the line were among the last of the original order for 251 tanks given in June 1940 to be completed by July 1941. The hope was that this new factory, adding to the original tank shop that could only build 24 per month, would mean that the order would be finished ahead of schedule. In due course the factory would be focused on the Valiant II* until the Victor was ready to be put into production. The advantage of the Valiant II* was that the hull, suspension and engine were all the same. All that changed was the size and layout of the turret able to carry the more powerful gun.

General John Dill (CIGS) had to take the Prime Minister apart from the larger group as Winston Churchill had one of his bright ideas. Having listened patiently, a skill he had had to cultivate since taking the job, Dill agreed that he would look into the possibility, fearing another ‘action this day’ memo. The Prime Minister however had the bit between his teeth. If all the current Valiant I and I* only needed a new turret with the new gun to make them II and II*, then why not build a whole lot more turrets and send them out to North Africa to upgrade the tanks already there?

Henry Spurrier was asked to join what was obviously becoming a somewhat heated debate. General Dill was probably hoping that there was a simple explanation of why this might be impossible, but in the absence of the design engineers, Spurrier could only agree that it was certainly worth thinking about. Dill knew well enough that the fundamental problem was that there just weren’t enough 6-pdrs being made. The decision, of the Prime Minister, to keep producing 2-pdrs after Dunkirk had effectively put the 6-pdr on the back burner.

Churchill knew from the after-action reports from Operation Brevity that the 2-pdr was struggling to penetrate the face-hardened armour of the panzers. Dill assured him that the fix, an APC and APCBC round for the 2-pdr, was being produced and rushed out to Libya. As for production of 6-pdrs, the fact that Vickers had been able to make some, without lowering their numbers of 2-pdrs, was remarkable in itself. Dill knew that the Vickers production was soon to be joined by a new Royal Ordnance Factory which had the means to produce these new guns. The reason that the Valiant II and II* were not due to be produced in any numbers until after the summer was to allow that new source of 6-pdrs to come on stream.

In an attempt to distract the Prime Minister, Spurrier mentioned that the plant’s main focus would only be on the Valiant II* for a short period of time. Plans for the new Victor were well advanced and Spurrier was keen to promote his own involvement, along with Roy Robotham of Rolls Royce, in the creation of the Meteor engine for the Victor. While the engine developed from the Napier Lion in the Valiant was much better than what had gone before, the Meteor would outclass it significantly. Leyland had a big hand in turning the Merlin engine into a tank engine. Three of the Leyland’s best designers were working closely with the Rolls Royce team at Clan Foundry, Belper, to bring the Meteor to fruition. Once again Dill cringed as the Prime Minister began to fixate on the numbers of this engine, and how it would be built without eating into the Merlin production which was essential for all the aircraft that needed it. Spurrier was more confident on this ground and explained to the Prime Minister the complex negotiations between Vickers, Leyland, Rover, Perkins and Ford to solve that very problem. At this point, King George’s aide came over to remind the small group that the rest of the party was getting impatient. Duly chastened the rest of the tour was completed and as the last of the dignitaries’ cars left the factory, Spurrier and his team retired to the conference room where stiff drinks were the order of the day.

Great update. Visits from the grown ups are challenging in all industries, even now.
Nice to hear that capped 2 pounder rounds are in the pipeline. They would probably solve the immediate problem with face hardened armour and even a small allocation for the AT guns causing an extra 3 to 5 losses of Panzer 3 per engagement would rapidly cause big problems for the Germans. Since standard 2 pound shot works fine against panzer 1 and 2 and Italian tanks, and can work against face hardened armour, even a small shipment of capped rounds might be enough to effectively finish off the Axis tank force well before the 6 pounders arrive.
Edit. Sorry, I quoted MattII by mistake and don't know how to delete the quote

 

[Paulo the Limey]

Hmm. I foresee a scheme to send out every single completed Mark II turret out to North Africa, even whilst Victor II hulls sit languishing in the U.K.
Much easier to ship- (HMS Manxman when you absolutely positively need that cargo moved by sea fast, accept no substitutions)
Gets upgraded tanks out to the fighting forces far quicker. Might even allow some damaged tanks to be refit, if they were hit in the turret.