Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

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If Britain looks like they are on the way to winning in North Africa an interesting butterfly could be some form of Vichy French (as in the Vichy forces in North Africa, not all of Vichy France) action against Libya. Yes it won't be much more than an infantry attack but it will divert resources from the front and could be a catalyst for a collapse.

The idea being that if the Vichy French leaders in North Africa want to retain their positions then throwing in with the British is the best bet. Even if the support comes at a late stage and is not really all that militarily effective.
The thing is it does not need to be effective to potentially get the Axis to pull the plug on North Africa. If the prospect of using French North Africa is a non starter and Libya looks lost and no more than a resource drain the decision could well be made to cut the losses early.
If we are talking a collapse of Axis North Africa in late 1941, the man in charge of the army in Tunisia is De Lattre, with Juin in Algiers. Now Juin was following the Weygant line of "fight against all comers" but I'm not certain how De Lattre would react if 50,000 Germans crossed into Tunisia without bothering to ask for permission...

And if De Lattre orders his troops to fight the Germans and Italians what does Juin do?
 
If we are talking a collapse of Axis North Africa in late 1941, the man in charge of the army in Tunisia is De Lattre, with Juin in Algiers. Now Juin was following the Weygant line of "fight against all comers" but I'm not certain how De Lattre would react if 50,000 Germans crossed into Tunisia without bothering to ask for permission...

And if De Lattre orders his troops to fight the Germans and Italians what does Juin do?
I think a lot depends on how many and how organised they are. Much easier to face down disorganised remnants low on supplies, water and equipment and in full retreat, knowing you have fortifications in place and the brits coming behind them.
But you're right about the possible impact of the personality of the commander. If given a direct order, you'd expect compliance but there's room for hesitation, mixed orders from Africa and Vichy (Weygand says hold them out while Petain says let them in, and Darlan could go either way). Tough call for allan.
 
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On a tank related note, whilst looking for information on camps in the UK for German prisoners of war, I just tripped over a note on teaching resources website that work on developing 'Canal Defence Light' tanks was apparently carried out in the English Lake District, near Lowther Castle:
TOP SECRET TANKS said:
…The Lakeland fells were also often used for troop training exercises. The fells around Walla Crag and Bleaberry Fell were used as a training area for tank crews.

In 1941 Lowther Castle was requisitioned by the War Office to develop top secret anti-tank weapons. Military experts adapting the turrets of standard tanks to shine intense, flickering lights with the intention of blinding the enemy during night fighting. These light emitting weapons were called the Canal Light Defence (CDL). In great secrecy, a total of 6,000 men from the 35th Royal Tank Brigade, which in 1942 became part of the 79th Armoured Division, trained to use the tanks in the surrounding countryside.

In the region of £20 million was spent on the project and 2,000 tanks were converted. King George VI, Earl Mountbatten, Eisenhower and Winston Churchill all visited Lowther to see the CDL tank in action. However, in one of the biggest blunders of the war, the tanks were kept so secret that the commanders on the front line were oblivious of their potential and Field-Marshall Montgomery failed to put the plans into action.
Link to website quote is from: Landscape of war : Lake District National Park
 
On a tank related note, whilst looking for information on camps in the UK for German prisoners of war, I just tripped over a note on teaching resources website that work on developing 'Canal Defence Light' tanks was apparently carried out in the English Lake District, near Lowther Castle:

Link to website quote is from: Landscape of war : Lake District National Park
Originally designed and built on Matilda II hulls they were later converted to M3 Grant hulls which allowed the CDL tank to retain the use of a hull mounted 75mm gun. They were shipped to India in 1945 and used to patrol the streets of an Indian city when the local inhabitants rioted. I cannot remember the cities' name unfortunately. They were considered too secret to be used in European fighting. They were only deployed to Remargen to defend the bridge after it's capture.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
On the cuestion of an possible Axis retreat to Tunisia I suspect that ITTL we may see an second Beda Fomm but this time including most of the Afrika Korps. Which would made the whole point null
 
8 June 1941. Operation Battleaxe. Day 2.
8 June 1941. Operation Battleaxe. Day 2.

The Italians defending Wadi Abyar had been battered for much of the night by artillery strikes, then just as the light was strong enough, those who were on watch noticed that blue smoke was covering the forward positions of the British attackers. Two squadrons of Blenheims, followed by a squadron of Marylands flew in at low level from the direction of the sea and plastered the Italians’ forward positions. The blue smoke had been agreed with the RAF to mark the British forward positions to allow the bombers to avoid bombing their own side. The Blenheims dropped 40lb bombs, then the Marylands, followed up with 500lb bombs. As soon as the last plane cleared the area, the Royal Artillery regiments put down a four-minute barrage to keep the Italians’ heads down.

The Royal Engineers, with help from the Pioneer companies of 6th Infantry Division had cleared two paths through the minefield during the night, and from out of the blue smoke in each of the paths emerged a squadron of Valiant I infantry tanks, with the forward companies of the 2nd Battalion Scots Guards and 3rd Battalion Coldstream Guards. The men of the 7th Bersaglieri Regiment’s 7th Anti-tank gun company, armed with 47/32 anti-tank guns distinguished themselves by staying at their posts. Their efforts however amounted to a few Valiant I tanks being disabled by hits on their tracks, and another two straying from the cleared path and detonating mines. The Royal Tank Regiment and the Guards rolled over the Italian positions within an hour. When it was clear that the position was untenable, a number of Italian trucks and other vehicles withdrew towards the main positions at Nofilia. Some of these were strafed by Hurricanes, the majority however arrived back at Nofilia to rejoin the rest of the Trento Division.

While 22nd Guards Brigade rounded up prisoners and saw to their casualties, the 23rd Infantry Brigade, with 44th Bn RTR, passed through Wadi Abyar to move onto the next part of the Italian defences. In turn, 16th Infantry Brigade, supported by the tanks of 48th Bn RTR, followed through.

22nd Armoured Division continued to trail their coat to the south and east of the 6th Infantry Division. The RAF had also been asked not to prevent the Luftwaffe reconnaissance efforts in this direction. The liberal use of radio signals in the clear and in code were used to try to keep the focus on the coast, while 7th Armoured Division and 4th Indian Division maintained strict radio silence. Having travelled through the night, these two Divisions rested and refuelled during the day, keen to prevent dust clouds from giving away their presence. The Long Range Desert Group and the 7th Armoured Division’s own reconnaissance regiment, 11th Hussars, provided a screen to keep any German patrols at bay. Since these types of encounters weren’t so unusual between reconnaissance forces, it was hoped that any such fight would be reported as such.

The movement of the Panzer Divisions towards Nofilia had been noted by RAF reconnaissance, and four squadrons of light bombers, escorted by two squadrons of fighters, had been tasked with interdicting this advance. In exercises with the 7th Armoured Division before Operation Battleaxe, the liberal use of 40lb bombs among the soft skinned support vehicles had been found to be more effective than attempting to attack the tanks directly. This was exactly what 15th Panzer Division and 5th Light Division suffered twice that day. Having arrived to the south of Nofilia, they took advantage of the stocks of fuel and water held by the Italian defenders to refuel their panzers and refresh themselves.

General Rommel had come forward along with General Walter Neumann-Silkow, GOC 15th Panzer Division. Together they took the reports from the Italians, especially those who’d made it back from Wadi Abyar. The presence of the Valiant tanks, acting as infantry support, and the fact that those attacking weren’t Australians, meant Rommel’s original plan needed to be adapted. While the position of the British Armoured Division was confirmed as being south of the main road, they seemed to be further back than Rommel had presumed. With the Australian Division unaccounted for, possibly travelling with that armoured Division, then it would be more difficult to chew up one part of the British advance before turning his attention to the other part.

Ever since Arras, Rommel had thirsted for revenge for the losses his 7th Panzer Division had suffered at the hands of the British Royal Tank Regiment. When General Paulus had been present during the previous British attack, Rommel had been restrained from the kind of battle he wanted to fight. This time there was no such restraint. He ordered General Hans Von Ravenstein to use elements of his 5th Light Division in alongside the Italian Trento Division. The extra artillery and anti-tank guns, including the Panzerjäger I of 605 Abteilung, and four 88mm AA guns of 33rd Flak Regiment used in anti-tank role, would give the British a much harder task to break the Italian positions. 5th Panzer Regiment was ordered to hold in place and be used as a counter attacking force when appropriate.

Meanwhile, Rommel ordered General Neumann-Silkow to hold his 15th Panzer Division in place behind the Italian positions. His intention was that when the British had run out of steam in their attack, the Panzers would advance south of the escarpment and take the British in the rear. Rommel had every confidence that 15th Panzer Division would be able to mop up the British, inflicting a very serious defeat.

Major-General John Evetts, commanding 6th Infantry Division, with 7th Tank Brigade under his command ordered his leading Brigade, 23rd Brigade, to hold their positions when they made contact with the Italian defensive positions in the vicinity of Nofilia. They were to wait for 16th Brigade to arrive and once more, with artillery and engineering support, prepare the ground for an assault the next morning. The majority of the 22nd Guards Brigade would be in a position to catch up during the night allowing them to support a Divisional level attack. The fact that the Germans had come to the aid of their Italian allies had made the odds of a breakthrough at Nofilia much worse. 22nd Armoured Division, who role was to exploit that breakthrough and push on towards Sirte, was also ready to come to the aid of 6th Infantry Division should the Germans attempt a flanking attack.

At XIII Corps HQ Generals Wavell and O’Connor were counting on the Germans trying to encircle the British attack. Once the German Panzer Divisions were fully committed, the 7th Armoured Division and 4th Indian Division would attack from the south into the rear of the German/Italian positions. Caught between the 22nd Armoured Division and 6th Infantry Division at Nofilia on the coast and the two Divisions coming from the desert, the chances of the Germans evading the trap would be limited. However, all this hinged on whether the 7th Armoured and 4th Indian Divisions could remain undetected on their inland route. They were setting off on their second night march which would bring them into position to the south and west of Nofilia. The faith that had been put into the navigation of the Long Range Desert Group, and the efforts to provide both Divisions with adequate supplies and support, to make a difficult crossing of the inhospitable desert, would hopefully pay off.
 
If the British pull this off things could well be over in north Africa quite soon.
Depends how fixated Rommel gets about 22nd Armoured and how aggressive 6th Infantry are in the morning. If they behave as Rommel expects and launch an attack then they are likely to be roughly handled but that will mean the flanking divisions have an easy ride as the Germans will be engaged to the front as well. . If they hold back then it's entirely possible that Rommel will sacrifice the Italians to escape with the 15 Pz. and most of 5 Light once they realise the flank attack is coming.
 
Will the 88s cause any trouble for the British this time around? I see they're deploying 47mm gunned PzJ Is against the Valiants.
 
Will the 88s cause any trouble for the British this time around? I see they're deploying 47mm gunned PzJ Is against the Valiants.
88s will cause problem for the tankers whatever they drive. But there is alot of emphasis on getting the artillery in place (on both side to be fair). If the British can win that duel then the 88's are going to have a long day. And there are only 4 of them.

47mm (Italian or German/Czech) is shown to be marginally effective ITTL and IOTL against the kind of armour deployed by the British.
 
If the British pull this off things could well be over in north Africa quite soon.
Well what can go wrong usually does...

Guess we will have to hope that the British and Commonwealth forces don't have as many things go wrong as the Axis and that Rommel gets had by the traps.
 
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Like it can penetrate the armour on the Valiants? Or just bounce off like the 37mm?
It could disable Matildas but mostly due to non-penetrating spall hits.
"The accuracy of this weapon was commented on; as it will usually hit its target with the first shot at ranges up to 1,000 metres (1,100 yd). However, its penetration qualities were far too low for the necessary combat ranges in the desert of North Africa. The chassis, engine and suspension were constantly in need of care due to the additional weight of the anti-tank gun. In one case, three Mk II (Matilda II infantry tanks) were penetrated at a range of 400 metres (440 yd) by 4.7 cm tungsten-core armor-piercing shell (Pz.Gr. 40). It usually penetrates 60 millimetres (2.4 in) of armor. Therefore, a small percentage of these rounds are desired. The 4.7 cm armor-piercing shell (Pz.Gr. 36(t)) will not penetrate a Mk.II at 600 to 800 metres (660 to 870 yd). But the crew will abandon the tank because fragments spall off the armor on the inside."
 
8 June 1941. Operation Battleaxe. Day 2.

The Italians defending Wadi Abyar had been battered for much of the night by artillery strikes, then just as the light was strong enough, those who were on watch noticed that blue smoke was covering the forward positions of the British attackers. Two squadrons of Blenheims, followed by a squadron of Marylands flew in at low level from the direction of the sea and plastered the Italians’ forward positions. The blue smoke had been agreed with the RAF to mark the British forward positions to allow the bombers to avoid bombing their own side. The Blenheims dropped 40lb bombs, then the Marylands, followed up with 500lb bombs. As soon as the last plane cleared the area, the Royal Artillery regiments put down a four-minute barrage to keep the Italians’ heads down.

The Royal Engineers, with help from the Pioneer companies of 6th Infantry Division had cleared two paths through the minefield during the night, and from out of the blue smoke in each of the paths emerged a squadron of Valiant I infantry tanks, with the forward companies of the 2nd Battalion Scots Guards and 3rd Battalion Coldstream Guards. The men of the 7th Bersaglieri Regiment’s 7th Anti-tank gun company, armed with 47/32 anti-tank guns distinguished themselves by staying at their posts. Their efforts however amounted to a few Valiant I tanks being disabled by hits on their tracks, and another two straying from the cleared path and detonating mines. The Royal Tank Regiment and the Guards rolled over the Italian positions within an hour. When it was clear that the position was untenable, a number of Italian trucks and other vehicles withdrew towards the main positions at Nofilia. Some of these were strafed by Hurricanes, the majority however arrived back at Nofilia to rejoin the rest of the Trento Division.

While 22nd Guards Brigade rounded up prisoners and saw to their casualties, the 23rd Infantry Brigade, with 44th Bn RTR, passed through Wadi Abyar to move onto the next part of the Italian defences. In turn, 16th Infantry Brigade, supported by the tanks of 48th Bn RTR, followed through.

22nd Armoured Division continued to trail their coat to the south and east of the 6th Infantry Division. The RAF had also been asked not to prevent the Luftwaffe reconnaissance efforts in this direction. The liberal use of radio signals in the clear and in code were used to try to keep the focus on the coast, while 7th Armoured Division and 4th Indian Division maintained strict radio silence. Having travelled through the night, these two Divisions rested and refuelled during the day, keen to prevent dust clouds from giving away their presence. The Long Range Desert Group and the 7th Armoured Division’s own reconnaissance regiment, 11th Hussars, provided a screen to keep any German patrols at bay. Since these types of encounters weren’t so unusual between reconnaissance forces, it was hoped that any such fight would be reported as such.

The movement of the Panzer Divisions towards Nofilia had been noted by RAF reconnaissance, and four squadrons of light bombers, escorted by two squadrons of fighters, had been tasked with interdicting this advance. In exercises with the 7th Armoured Division before Operation Battleaxe, the liberal use of 40lb bombs among the soft skinned support vehicles had been found to be more effective than attempting to attack the tanks directly. This was exactly what 15th Panzer Division and 5th Light Division suffered twice that day. Having arrived to the south of Nofilia, they took advantage of the stocks of fuel and water held by the Italian defenders to refuel their panzers and refresh themselves.

General Rommel had come forward along with General Walter Neumann-Silkow, GOC 15th Panzer Division. Together they took the reports from the Italians, especially those who’d made it back from Wadi Abyar. The presence of the Valiant tanks, acting as infantry support, and the fact that those attacking weren’t Australians, meant Rommel’s original plan needed to be adapted. While the position of the British Armoured Division was confirmed as being south of the main road, they seemed to be further back than Rommel had presumed. With the Australian Division unaccounted for, possibly travelling with that armoured Division, then it would be more difficult to chew up one part of the British advance before turning his attention to the other part.

Ever since Arras, Rommel had thirsted for revenge for the losses his 7th Panzer Division had suffered at the hands of the British Royal Tank Regiment. When General Paulus had been present during the previous British attack, Rommel had been restrained from the kind of battle he wanted to fight. This time there was no such restraint. He ordered General Hans Von Ravenstein to use elements of his 5th Light Division in alongside the Italian Trento Division. The extra artillery and anti-tank guns, including the Panzerjäger I of 605 Abteilung, and four 88mm AA guns of 33rd Flak Regiment used in anti-tank role, would give the British a much harder task to break the Italian positions. 5th Panzer Regiment was ordered to hold in place and be used as a counter attacking force when appropriate.

Meanwhile, Rommel ordered General Neumann-Silkow to hold his 15th Panzer Division in place behind the Italian positions. His intention was that when the British had run out of steam in their attack, the Panzers would advance south of the escarpment and take the British in the rear. Rommel had every confidence that 15th Panzer Division would be able to mop up the British, inflicting a very serious defeat.

Major-General John Evetts, commanding 6th Infantry Division, with 7th Tank Brigade under his command ordered his leading Brigade, 23rd Brigade, to hold their positions when they made contact with the Italian defensive positions in the vicinity of Nofilia. They were to wait for 16th Brigade to arrive and once more, with artillery and engineering support, prepare the ground for an assault the next morning. The majority of the 22nd Guards Brigade would be in a position to catch up during the night allowing them to support a Divisional level attack. The fact that the Germans had come to the aid of their Italian allies had made the odds of a breakthrough at Nofilia much worse. 22nd Armoured Division, who role was to exploit that breakthrough and push on towards Sirte, was also ready to come to the aid of 6th Infantry Division should the Germans attempt a flanking attack.

At XIII Corps HQ Generals Wavell and O’Connor were counting on the Germans trying to encircle the British attack. Once the German Panzer Divisions were fully committed, the 7th Armoured Division and 4th Indian Division would attack from the south into the rear of the German/Italian positions. Caught between the 22nd Armoured Division and 6th Infantry Division at Nofilia on the coast and the two Divisions coming from the desert, the chances of the Germans evading the trap would be limited. However, all this hinged on whether the 7th Armoured and 4th Indian Divisions could remain undetected on their inland route. They were setting off on their second night march which would bring them into position to the south and west of Nofilia. The faith that had been put into the navigation of the Long Range Desert Group, and the efforts to provide both Divisions with adequate supplies and support, to make a difficult crossing of the inhospitable desert, would hopefully pay off.
threadmark is missing
 
Outflanking the enemy by moving through a supposedly impassible desert using superior navigation? Shades of the Gulf War there.
I'm always a bit worried about stuff like this being too unbelievable. There are two things which I think are fair about my choice. Firstly O'Connor is still in charge. So flanking is always something he would look to do. Secondly there is greater confidence in the reliability of the tanks here than OTL. A long march over rough ground would leave a high percentage of Matilda IIs and Crusaders behind through mechanical breakdown. Not all of 7th Armoured will make it to the start line, but unlike OTL Battleaxe, 7th Armoured starts the battle with 340 Valiant I tanks, without too much wear on them. OTL the Valentine was reliable and capable of long distances, TTL the Valiant is at least as good.

Regarding the supposedly impassible desert I've attached a map which shows the work of the LRDG in 1940. You'll notice that the sand seas and depressions that are impassible are marked, and none of them are in the vicinity of Nofilia. I am prepared to admit that from whatever maps etc I can find, that such a journey, about 30 miles south of the coast might be ASB, but I can't see anything specific that would make it so.
 

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