The Allied invasion of Normandy won't take place until 1943. As much as certain people in Washington and London might wish otherwise Dieppe is not the opening of the second front.
A successful Dieppe 'raid' might have some interesting implications though!

For starters the Germans would probably double down on reinforcing ports etc further weakening other areas!

Although it might also result in the 'lessons learned' TTL not being as 'reinforced by failure' as OTL

Although I am of the opinion that there was little learned they did not already know!

Apologies for the excessive use of !
 

Garrison

Donor
A successful Dieppe 'raid' might have some interesting implications though!

For starters the Germans would probably double down on reinforcing ports etc further weakening other areas!

Although it might also result in the 'lessons learned' TTL not being as 'reinforced by failure' as OTL

Although I am of the opinion that there was little learned they did not already know!

Apologies for the excessive use of !
It does feel like you've been reading part of the next update...
 
A successful Dieppe 'raid' might have some interesting implications though!

For starters the Germans would probably double down on reinforcing ports etc further weakening other areas!

Although it might also result in the 'lessons learned' TTL not being as 'reinforced by failure' as OTL
It's the combination of those two that is the concern. If the raid is successful enough then there is the risk that the Allies 'learn' that you can take a port, you just need to massively reinforce it quickly.

This is a lesson the US probably really wants to be true, because it allows a much earlier invasion. If you can use existing port facilities then you don't need to build so many landing craft, don't need to develop PLUTO, no need for Mulberry harbours, no DD-tanks, indeed no need for 79th Armoured Division and all the funnies. Not doing all that saves resources, but more importantly it saves a lot of time.

Of course if they do that and then the Germans skimp on the wider Atlantic Wall in favour of making everything larger than a fishing port a Festung... well that could get messy.
 
Or...
Dieppe is a success.
The allies spend 2 days there then withdraw in good order under fire.

They try the same stunt in Sicily and get butchered.
Same lessons, different location?
 
23rd – 24th August 1942 – Dieppe – Operation Jubilee – Part II – The First Step

Garrison

Donor
23rd – 24th August 1942 – Dieppe – Operation Jubilee – Part II – The First Step

The landing zone for Operation Jubilee was broken down into six beaches. Running from east to west these were simply codenamed, Yellow, Blue, Red, White, Green, and Orange. Yellow and Orange were on the flanks, outside of the town, and the remaining four were in front of Dieppe. The main body of the Canadian division would land at Green and Orange, while the Americans landed at Yellow and Blue. Elements of the Commandos and US Rangers would attack at points along the frontage of Red and White, helping pin down the defenders and sow confusion as to where the main weight of the assault was aimed. The battle opened at dawn on the 23rd of August when the Royal Navy task force, led by HMS Warspite began a bombardment of the town and the shore installations, while Bomber Command carried out a raid on Cherbourg to help draw off Luftwaffe fighters. The naval bombardment created chaos for both the citizens of Dieppe and the German defenders. The bombing attack on Cherbourg was far less effective as many of the bomber missed their targets or arrived late, meaning the Luftwaffe was already on alert for Dieppe before the bomber struck [1].

The chaos caused by Warspite and rest of its bombardment group prevented any co-ordinated response as the first Canadian and American troops began landing. This was just as well because problems were already emerging even before the first soldiers set foot on the beaches. The operational plan called for the troops landing at Yellow and Orange beaches to envelop the town and cut off the movement of reinforcements into the town. A serious failure of navigation meant that most of the American soldiers meant to land at Yellow ended up on the periphery of Blue beach, creating something of a traffic jam and meaning that the troops who did reach Yellow were unable to advance in the face of German opposition and instead had to defend their positions and were unable to link up with the rest of the landings until after 1400 hours [2].

At the same time the, distinctly lacklustre assessment of the condition and gradient of the beaches came back to haunt the Allies as many of the tanks struggled to get off the beaches, most notably the new A22 Black Prince. A number of these had been equipped with a variety of devices intended to help in getting off the beach and clearing obstacles, so it was somewhat ironic that many of them never made it off the beach that day, instead the Canadians would have to depend on their home-grown armoured support. The men of the 14th Tank Regiment had been reluctant to give up their Wolverines in favour of the Black Prince, so less than half the regiment had been reequipped, which proved fortuitous as the Wolverines were able to take advantage of the efforts made by the A22s to utilize their special equipment, much to the chagrin of the crews of the newer and supposedly more capable tanks who remained stuck on the beaches.

Many of the Wolverines, along with the few Black Princes that did escape the soft shingle, were able to push into the town and the 75mm gun of the Wolverine proved considerably more useful at removing anti-tank obstacles than the supposedly purpose-built equipment mounted on the Black Prince.

It was no comfort to the Canadians that their American counterparts also struggled to get their tanks off the beach and again the lighter M3 Stuart fared better than the M3 Lee [3]. Nonetheless the soldiers landing at Orange did succeed in getting some of their armour into action and managed to advance as per the original plan, extending around the western flank of Dieppe and blocking several critical junctions leading towards the town. This was particularly important as reports from the defending Wehrmacht troops were sufficiently confused that the initial efforts to send reinforcements were directed towards the positions strongly held by the American rather than towards the routes left open by the misdirected landing at Yellow beach. The forces landing at Blue and Green had some success penetrating the town and the port facilities, aided by the fact that the force at Blue was now somewhat larger than intended. By midday the German troops had regrouped and repeatedly counterattacked at the port, with the fighting becoming almost hand to hand at some points. The Germans feared the Allies would try and use the docks to land their own reinforcements, a fear that was not without merit given that there was a contingent of transports waiting to deploy the divisional reserves and further armour if the docks could be taken. These were stood down around 1630 hours as it finally became clear that even if the port could be taken the dock facilities would be unusable owing to a combination of battle damage and German sabotage [4].

One detachment of troops at Green beach, consisting of elements of the South Saskatchewan Regiment, Commandos and a small group of American Rangers escorted a radar engineer, RAF Flight Sergeant Jack Nissenthall, in an attempt to seize the German radar station at Pourville. The escorting troops had orders to shoot Nissenthall to prevent his capture if things went badly, he had even been supplied with a Cyanide capsule as a last resort. Fortunately for Nissenthall the attack was a success, though not without heavy casualties as only eight of Nissenthall’s bodyguards made it back to the beaches with him. While Nissenthall was able to examine the equipment and remove several manuals it was cutting the phone lines connecting the radar station and forcing it use radio for communications that arguably had the greatest effect. This radio traffic was intercepted and decoded by the British, providing a wealth of information about the operation and capabilities of the German radar system, all of which greatly assisted future RAF operations and planning for D-Day itself [5].

The success at Pourville was almost certainly the high point of Operation Jubilee. RAF efforts to gain air superiority over the town were frustrated by the presence of the Fw 190 fighter in considerable numbers. This fighter proved more than a match for the Spitfire Mk V as well as the P-40s and P-38s being used by the USAAF. This failure to suppress the Luftwaffe meant that the Allies efforts to bomb the reinforcements advancing towards Dieppe largely failed, compounded by the fact that co-ordination between ground attack aircraft and the troops they were supposed to be supporting was still poor. At the same time the town was proving to be far more heavily defended than anticipated and by 1600 hundred hours much of the armour supporting the Allied troops had been destroyed or broken down, reducing some to functioning as pillboxes covering road junctions and others to simply blocking streets, something that the bulk of the A22 proved quite effective at, regardless of how humiliating it might have been for the crews. With Allied troops deep in the town the naval fire support also had to be curtailed, a serious problem given the paucity of other artillery support. As mentioned the fighting in the port itself had been fierce and in the words of one Canadian soldier, ‘everything that hadn’t been blown up was on fire’. This was an exaggeration but an understandable one given the circumstances. Between the Allied attacks and German determination to prevent the allies taking the port intact it had been put completely out of action for the foreseeable future, which would later be spun as one of the successes of the raid, though in reality aerial reconnaissance pictures of the damage done had a sobering effect on those who were charged with planning the Normandy landings [6].

If the RAF wasn’t able to prevent the movement of German reinforcements, they were able to report on them at least. By 1600 hours it was obvious that further attacks by the Allied troops were pointless and instead they began to withdraw to a hastily prepared series of defensive positions to await their evacuation after dark, with the final withdrawal on the American flank delayed until 1700 to allow the troops who had been successfully landed at Yellow Beach to fall back into the defensive perimeter. The Germans were unable to prevent this withdrawal as they had also suffered heavily in the fighting and as the Allied troops fell back the Royal Navy was once again able to bring its guns to bear and suppress German efforts to harry the withdrawing troops. Night did not fall until 2130 hours and the evacuation was not completed until just before dawn on the 24th, with some of the rear-guard element who were unable to disengage being isolated and forced to surrender by 0900 hours. Almost all the armour and other heavy equipment that had been deployed was left behind and troops losses were significant. The Americans suffered around a 20% loss rate and the Canadians suffered about 15% losses, killed, and captured. These were certainly bad, though still far lower than the worse projections before the battle, and the Germans had also suffered heavily during the fighting. The question that has been asked frequently in the years since is whether the gains from the raid justified those losses?

Perhaps inevitably Mountbatten thought that they did, claiming that valuable lessons had been learned about amphibious operations and that the Germans did deploy divisions in the west at the expense of the fighting in the USSR. Alanbrooke and others were far more scathing in their assessment, pointing out that many of the so-called lessons of Dieppe, such as the vital necessity of air superiority and detailed intelligence about the landing grounds, should have been obvious without the loss of so many men and so much equipment. It is also questionable how much of the German forces sent west were in direct response to the Dieppe raid, in fact more troops were drawn off by the perceived threat of Italy trying to exit the war than went to France. The one indisputable benefit of the raid was that any idea of mounting a landing in 1942 was finally squashed, as were any suggestions of trying to seize a port on the first day of the evolving plan for Operation Millennium. The Allies would have to depend on moving men and equipment across the landing beaches for days if not weeks, an operation even more daunting than the initial landings and one that would exercise the ingenuity of the planners [7]. If some of the other lessons should have been obvious beforehand it is not unusual in war to find that it takes the harsh experience of battle to drive the seemingly obvious home and force those in command to change and adapt. The RAF and USAAF were certainly chastened by their struggle against the Luftwaffe and new aircraft models that could counter the Fw 190 were soon rushed into service. Some in the USAAF even raised fresh doubts about the wisdom of the plans for large scale unescorted air raids into German, alas these concerns were still not taken seriously, and once again a price in blood would have to be paid to learn the folly of that plan [8].

On the German side much propaganda was generated from the images of destroyed tanks, captured Allied soldiers, and the devastation wrought on Dieppe by the ‘callous English who cared nothing for the suffering of the French people’, though the latter had to be carefully edited to avoid showing just how much damage had been wrought on the defenders. Beyond this short-term propaganda gain however the battle of Dieppe did lead the Wehrmacht into drawing several erroneous conclusions, which were probably as valuable as any of the lessons the Allies may, or may not, have learned from Operation Jubilee. For one thing it affirmed their belief that any major landing would be aimed at taking a port, and probably one in northern France, with Calais being regarded as the most likely target. Though attempts to mount such an operation in Norway, or Italy were also seen as likely candidates, at least by Hitler, which meant the Wehrmacht also had to continue taking them seriously. This resulted in the decidedly limited resources available in 1943 to build what came to be called the Atlantic Wall being spread thin and in France would be concentrated on fortifying the major ports, leaving the defences in areas such as Normandy far weaker. Likewise, the reserve divisions of the Heer would be positioned for a rapid response in the Pas de Calais, a move that Allied intelligence did everything in its power to encourage [9].

The other area in which the Germans thoroughly misjudged the Allies was in the quality of their armoured forces, which the General staff now regarded as ‘second rate’. They believed, despite interrogation of Canadian soldiers providing contradictory evidence, that the Wolverine was a hasty reworking of the Valentine that indicated that the British were struggling to produce more modern designs, a belief compounded by their low opinion of the effectiveness of the Black Prince, this being hardly surprising since so few got into action and those that did proved as vulnerable as any tank will when operating in urban combat. They were equally dismissive of the M3 Lee, though there were some favourable comments made about the M3 Stuart, comments that did not find their way into the reports presented by the General Staff to Hitler. The last thing they wanted was a fresh set of demands for yet more expensive upgrades and new tank models that were clearly unnecessary. The official position of the Wehrmacht was that the British had made little progress in armour development since the conclusion of the fighting in North Africa and that Americans were likewise struggling to produce an effective medium tank and doubtless by extension any heavy tanks. This conclusion also played into the desire to send as many of the Heer’s latest armour models to the east as possible, meaning a much lower priority for the likes of the Tiger and the Hetzer to be assigned to units intended to counter any Allied attempts to breach the Atlantic Wall. The Germans remained completely unaware that both the Black Prince and the Lee were regarded as intermediate vehicles by their respective countries, with the far more capable A24 Churchill and M4 Sherman already in production and in the case of the Sherman entering service, with the even more powerful M4A5 Thomas variant following in the latter half of 1943. This false assumption would prove costly the Germans when the Allies did return to France [10].

As far as the troops who took part in the battle, they were regarded as heroes, especially the Canadians. In their homeland Dieppe was regarded as the battle that made D-Day possible and opened the road to Berlin. It had already been accepted that the Wolverine was obsolete, but its service at Dieppe confirmed their view that they should focus on a new generation of infantry support vehicles rather than copying the A22, A24 or even the A27 cruiser tank [11].

If Dieppe was indeed as Mountbatten argued a valuable learning experience it was not the only such opportunity in 1942 and in many respects the invasion of Sicily would be a far more painful, and embarrassing, lesson for the US Army [12].

[1] Obviously this is quite different from OTL, with the attacks aimed at the flanks of the town and much, much heavier naval fire support.

[2] So things are not going smoothly, which was all but inevitable.

[3] So yes, they got more armour into the battle but there are still a lot of tanks stranded on the beaches, probably about the same numbers as OTL owing to their being more armour in the battle to begin with.

[4] And the Allies are going to get it rammed home that trying to secure a working port in an assault is all but impossible, which finally kills any ideas that Dieppe can become a beachhead for a 1942 D-Day.

[5] OTL only one of the bodyguards made it out and the raiders didn’t do much damage besides cutting the phone lines. Here the Germans having a lot more to cope with made things a bit easier on the radar team.

[6] The Allies still fail to get air superiority, which is major reason this is not going well.

[7] There is still a place for the ‘funnies’ and some creative solutions to bypass the need for a harbour.

[8] A topic that will be discussed in far more detail once we reach the sequel and 1943.

[9] The Germans are spreading themselves thin, which is good for the Allies.

[10] The M4A5 Thomas is the result of a discussion with @marathag. It is in effect an all-American Firefly.

[11] Not sure what the next Canadian vehicle will be, might even be an assault gun.

[12] Yeah, a couple of famous/notorious US Generals will be making their appearance shortly.
 

Garrison

Donor
How many divisions are in Western and Eastern Front TTL?
The honest answer is I don't have hard numbers because things are just so different in the west and Far East. No fighting in North Africa frees up troops for the Allies and the Germans, but Case Anton already happened, the Germans are twitchy about Italy, the British are sending more troops to the Far East, and the US is doing the same, but can achieve more with the forces available in the Pacific given the Japanese have to worry about holding on in Thailand and are bogged down in a long miserable battle on Java.
 

Garrison

Donor
How many soldiers/equipment did the allied and Axis lost on Raid?
Well the Allies lost basically two regiments of armour and infantry losses, adding in the wounded but evacuated, probably came to about 25% of each division. German total number is going to be about the same owing to the heavy naval attacks and their attempts to counterattack. Basically better proportionately than OTL for the Allies and worse for the Germans.
 
Hopefully someone in London is looking at the results of Dieppe (and Sicily still to come) and telling Churchill: 'We need a deal with Jinnah and Nehru now, if you want a big enough army, with the Americans still mobilising, to kill or capture your way to Berlin.'
 

Garrison

Donor
Hopefully someone in London is looking at the results of Dieppe (and Sicily still to come) and telling Churchill: 'We need a deal with Jinnah and Nehru now, if you want a big enough army, with the Americans still mobilising, to kill or capture your way to Berlin.'
There will be a degree of greater realism, especially as they will need a lot of extra Indian troops in SEA as the British army is going to have to concentrate on Europe in 1943. On the other side those Indian Nationalists looking forward to the Japanese beating the British are having to reconsider their position. Basically Dominion status is going to start looking good to both sides, even if Churchill won't be terribly happy about it.
 

Garrison

Donor
whats going on with Turkey,Sweden and Spain that are the major European nations still neutral ?
As 1942 passes into 1943 Turkey will certainly be leaning towards the Allies, while maintaining a respectable veneer of neutrality. Spain will not lean towards the Allies, not with the Germans in France, but they will be doing their best to be as scrupulously neutral as possible, meaning they will be less accommodating to German requests. Sweden likewise has to worry about the Wehrmacht forces next door, while at the same time being aware of the possibility of an Allied attack on Norway. In fact Sweden makes an ideal conduit for Allied intelligence to plant rumours about exactly such an operation, which they have no intention of mounting.
 
23rd September – 30th October 1942 – Sicily – Operation Malamute – Part I – Attacking Fortress Sicily

Garrison

Donor
23rd September – 30th October 1942 – Sicily – Operation Malamute – Part I – Attacking Fortress Sicily

Even after the decision to invade Sicily had finally there were still several issues to be settled in the summer of 1942 that could have completely derailed the whole operation. First and foremost was the matter of transporting the American troops and equipment needed for the operation across the Atlantic, involving the movement of entire Army Corps, not the single division committed to Dieppe. The U-Boats were certainly being beaten back and the battle of the Atlantic was being won, however it was not yet possible for anyone to declare victory and the U-Boats were still a threat. Delivering such a substantial body of men and equipment would provide a litmus test of just how much progress the Allied navies had made, with failure bringing serious consequences for the rest of the Anglo-American strategy. After all, if they could not transport the forces needed for Operation Malamute safely then how could a landing in France, or anywhere else in the European or Mediterranean theatres for that matter, be contemplated in 1943? In the end this turned out to be a non-issue as the transport of the US divisions went relatively smoothly, with only one troop transport lost during to enemy action, which encouraged those who still hoped for a full-scale landing in France in 1942, their ardour would be cooled by the experience at Dieppe, though the raid came too late to significantly influence planning for Operation Malamute [1].

The otherwise relatively smooth process of assembling the US forces for Malamute did suffer a small crisis when General MacArthur began agitating to be given overall command of US forces for the invasion, or indeed command of the entire operation. MacArthur still had his supporters in Washington who felt he had been used as a scapegoat for the fall of the Philippines and that he should be given a field command once more. In the end what had the potential to be a vicious political fight was headed off by British, who were adamant that Harold Alexander should be in overall command of allied ground forces, which were to be organized under 15th Army Group. Combined with the way MacArthur had once again tried to bypass the chain of command to get his way this allowed General George Marshall, the US Army Chief of Staff, to firmly reject this idea, McArthur would remain in Washington, this rebuff did nothing to stop him plotting his escape.

The Us forces committed to Sicily were primarily composed of II Corps and I Armoured Corps, with the freshly created Provisional Corps providing divisional reserves consisting of U.S. 2nd Armoured Division, 3rd Infantry Division and 34th Infantry Division. I Armoured Corps was commanded by General George S. Patton and Major General Lloyd R. Fredendall commanded II Corps. Patton was a larger-than-life character, regarded as a ‘glory hound’ by some of his critics, but undeniably a highly capable and driven commander, and that drive would prove invaluable in Sicily. Fredendall possessed an ego almost as large as Patton’s, regrettably this was the only trait that they shared. Fredendall had many friends and patrons in Washington, Including General Marshall himself. He was a rising star destined for higher things, perhaps even command of US forces for Operation Millennium, until his performance in Sicily derailed his career. It is difficult to feel any sympathy for Fredendall given that he cost to the men serving under him was far greater than a mere tarnished reputation [2].

In theory the British preparations for Malamute should have been far easier as they already had powerful forces in North Africa, however after the overthrow of the Vichy colonies had marked the end of operation North Africa, while the same time the need for troops in South East Asia was steadily growing, the Australian, New Zealand, and Indian divisions had been reassigned. This required a major reorganization of XXX Corps in particular, as its strength had been reduced to the 51st Highland Division and the South African 1st Infantry Division. XXX Corps was reinforced by 1st Canadian Infantry Division and 1st Canadian Tank Brigade in early July, and the British 1st Armoured Brigade at the end of that month. X Corps and XIII Corps had retained their Divisional strength, though XIII Corps was reinforced with the 1st Airborne Division. Much to their disappointment the paratroopers would only be called on to carry out small scale airborne landings with most of its forces being committed to bolster the other divisions [3].

As powerful a force as the British and Americans were mustering there was a keen awareness that Sicily was an almost inevitable target for an Allied assault and the build of men and materiel in North Africa could not be concealed from the Axis. This prompted a major intelligence operation intended to persuade the Wehrmacht to commit at least part of their available forces to other potential targets. At its simplest this took the form of photo reconnaissance and bombing raids against Corsica and Sardinia. False radio traffic and troop movements were also used to create the impression that Corsica was a serious target. A far more elaborate, perhaps even outlandish scheme was Operation Mincemeat. On June 9th 1942 the body of a Royal Marine Major washed up on a Spanish beach with a briefcase filled with vital documents chained to his wrist. These documents discussed plans for attacks against Corsica and a landing in Greece, with air and naval forces already building up in Crete lending weight to this information. The Spanish allowed the Abwehr to photograph the contents before returning the briefcase to the British Embassy and Major Martin was given a funeral with full military honours. This seeming disaster for the Allies was nothing of the sort for the simple reason that Major William Martin never existed. The body that washed up was that of a destitute young man whose corpse was acquired by British intelligence and whose identity has never been made public. The plans he carried were elaborate forgeries, bolstered by some very real letters composed by senior British officers whose candid content was designed to explain why they were being delivered by courier rather than sent by radio [4].

This deception did have a significant impact on German deployments. XIV Panzer Corps, which had been withdrawn from the operational planning for Case Blue to be sent to Sicily, lost 3rd Motorised Infantry Division to Corsica while the 1st Fallschirmjäger Panzer Division Hermann Goering was dispatched to Greece. This reduced XIV Panzer to only two divisions, including 1st Fallschirmjäger-Division, which was the reorganized 7th Air Division. This had only been partially rebuilt from the debacle on Malta and was distinctly understrength when the Allies landed in Sicily. Despite promises from the Germans to the Ciano government to the contrary no replacement divisions were forthcoming and indeed a number that might have been deployed were instead poised to ‘reinforce’ the Italian mainland in the event that Hitler decided that Ciano was going to betray the Axis [5]. These limited deployments created considerable discontent among the General Staff in Berlin. The consensus was that Case Blue had to be driven forward with the maximum available striking power and with the unwelcome decision to occupy the whole of France, as well as the obvious Allied intent of making a landing somewhere on the French coast in the summer of 1942, the Wehrmacht was already stretched thin. When this was placed in the context of grave doubts in the General Staff about the ability of the Italians to effectively defend their own territory it is hardly surprising that they didn’t resist the dispersal of troops originally intended for Sicily to other possible invasion targets.

While the Germans were dubious about the capabilities and fighting spirit of their ally Mussolini had been determined to mount a strong defence of Sicily, all the while talking in terms of retaking Libya and conquering Egypt once the tide turned against the Allies. Even after his death the plan to turn Sicily into a fortress island remained unchanged, mainly because no one in Rome wanted to look weak or hesitant, and because they had no better ideas for how to proceed so long as Italy remained in the war. Whatever the public stance of the Italian leadership many in the high command, including Marshal Badoglio, feared a landing in Sicily were doomed to become a repeat of operations in Libya. However much of a fight the best of the Italian forces put up they would inevitably be overwhelmed by superior Allied manpower and materiel, especially with the Americans fully involved in operation. The best that could be hoped for was to inflict enough casualties that the Allies would think twice about an invasion of the Italian mainland and even that increasingly seemed like wishful thinking, the Allies were rapidly approaching the point where they would accept nothing short of unconditional surrender from the Axis nations and Italy was increasingly caught between a rock and hard place politically and militarily [6].

The rapid advances made in the early weeks of Case Blue produced a fresh surge of optimism in Berlin, further reinforced by the outcome of Operation Jubilee. The repulse of the Canadian and American troops at Dieppe seemed to show that an amphibious assault could be thrown back into the sea, with Goebel’s propaganda machine spreading the message that the much vaunted second front had crushed at its inception. This viewpoint found little support in Rome, where it was suspected that Dieppe had been nothing more than a diversion to draw off Wehrmacht forces and further weaken the defence of Sicily [7].

Italian efforts to strengthen the defences of Sicily were not helped by the steadily increasing efforts of the RAF and Royal Navy to strangle the lines of supply between Sicily and the Italian mainland. Forays by the Regia Marina had become rare to the point of near extinction and the Regia Aeronautica was simply outclassed and outnumbered as the USAAF also began to deploy forces to forward bases in North Africa. These supply problems did nothing to bolster the morale of the Italian forces designated to defend Sicily and the high-handed attitude of their Wehrmacht allies when it came to who got priority for the supplies that were sent just made matters worse, with the growing antipathy between the Wehrmacht and the Italian forces reinforcing the apprehension that Sicily was doomed and quite possibly the whole of Italy along with it [8].

[1] Malamute rather than Husky, simply because of butterflies and a reflection that this isn’t the version of OTL.

[2] It was all but inevitable Fredendall would turn up here given his standing with the top brass prior to his horrendous performance in OTL, and no he won’t do any better in Sicily.

[3] The Allied forces are a blend of those used in Operation Torch, El Alamein, and Operation Husky, with some adjustments for the removal of so many ANZAC and Indian troops.

[4] There are somethings it would be out of the question to butterfly away, and if you are wondering, yes agents Garbo and Zig Zag are still going to have a role to play.

[5] Things are getting ever more poisonous between Berlin and Rome, not helped by the fact that Hitler has good reason to be paranoid this time…

[6] As far as the Italians can see its be occupied by the Allies or become a complete German puppet; they have no idea that the Allies are already looking elsewhere.

[7] Overall Dieppe came to late in the day to seriously affect the defence of Sicily either way.

[8] The situation is so bad for the Axis that even Fredendall can’t save them…
 
Combined with the way MacArthur had once again tried to bypass the chain of command to get his way this allowed General George Marshall, the US Army Chief of Staff, to firmly reject this idea, McArthur would remain in Washington, this rebuff did nothing to stop him plotting his escape.​

There's still a slight possibility that Leningrad might fall, and the Germans push north to Arkangel and Murmansk. This could potentially allow an invasion of North America via the Northeast Passage. It is therefore critical that an experienced senior officer be appointed Supreme Allied Commander Northern Alaska to counter this imminent threat. ;)

On June 9th 1942 the body of a Royal Marine Major washed up on a Spanish beach with a briefcase filled with vital documents chained to his wrist...The body that washed up was that of a destitute young man whose corpse was acquired by British intelligence and whose identity has never been made public.

I take it from this that you concur with the view that 'Martin' was Glyndwr Michael, rather than some poor bugger from the Dasher.

[4] There are somethings it would be out of the question to butterfly away, and if you are wondering, yes agents Garbo and Zig Zag are still going to have a role to play.

I assume Zigzag is still Zigzag, mainly because if you tried to invent any of his antics there'd be an outcry that this should be in ASB.

[8] The situation is so bad for the Axis that even Fredendall can’t save them…

This line makes me suspicious of a bait-and-switch. The Axis situation was never bad enough that Fredendall couldn't save them (at least at the tactical/operational level) given the right opportunity.
 
There's still a slight possibility that Leningrad might fall, and the Germans push north to Arkangel and Murmansk. This could potentially allow an invasion of North America via the Northeast Passage. It is therefore critical that an experienced senior officer be appointed Supreme Allied Commander Northern Alaska to counter this imminent threat. ;)
😂🤣🤣🤣🤣
 
23rd September – 30th October 1942 – Sicily – Operation Malamute – Part I – Attacking Fortress Sicily

Even after the decision to invade Sicily had finally there were still several issues to be settled in the summer of 1942 that could have completely derailed the whole operation. First and foremost was the matter of transporting the American troops and equipment needed for the operation across the Atlantic, involving the movement of entire Army Corps, not the single division committed to Dieppe. The U-Boats were certainly being beaten back and the battle of the Atlantic was being won, however it was not yet possible for anyone to declare victory and the U-Boats were still a threat. Delivering such a substantial body of men and equipment would provide a litmus test of just how much progress the Allied navies had made, with failure bringing serious consequences for the rest of the Anglo-American strategy. After all, if they could not transport the forces needed for Operation Malamute safely then how could a landing in France, or anywhere else in the European or Mediterranean theatres for that matter, be contemplated in 1943? In the end this turned out to be a non-issue as the transport of the US divisions went relatively smoothly, with only one troop transport lost during to enemy action, which encouraged those who still hoped for a full-scale landing in France in 1942, their ardour would be cooled by the experience at Dieppe, though the raid came too late to significantly influence planning for Operation Malamute [1].

The otherwise relatively smooth process of assembling the US forces for Malamute did suffer a small crisis when General MacArthur began agitating to be given overall command of US forces for the invasion, or indeed command of the entire operation. MacArthur still had his supporters in Washington who felt he had been used as a scapegoat for the fall of the Philippines and that he should be given a field command once more. In the end what had the potential to be a vicious political fight was headed off by British, who were adamant that Harold Alexander should be in overall command of allied ground forces, which were to be organized under 15th Army Group. Combined with the way MacArthur had once again tried to bypass the chain of command to get his way this allowed General George Marshall, the US Army Chief of Staff, to firmly reject this idea, McArthur would remain in Washington, this rebuff did nothing to stop him plotting his escape.

The Us forces committed to Sicily were primarily composed of II Corps and I Armoured Corps, with the freshly created Provisional Corps providing divisional reserves consisting of U.S. 2nd Armoured Division, 3rd Infantry Division and 34th Infantry Division. I Armoured Corps was commanded by General George S. Patton and Major General Lloyd R. Fredendall commanded II Corps. Patton was a larger-than-life character, regarded as a ‘glory hound’ by some of his critics, but undeniably a highly capable and driven commander, and that drive would prove invaluable in Sicily. Fredendall possessed an ego almost as large as Patton’s, regrettably this was the only trait that they shared. Fredendall had many friends and patrons in Washington, Including General Marshall himself. He was a rising star destined for higher things, perhaps even command of US forces for Operation Millennium, until his performance in Sicily derailed his career. It is difficult to feel any sympathy for Fredendall given that he cost to the men serving under him was far greater than a mere tarnished reputation [2].

In theory the British preparations for Malamute should have been far easier as they already had powerful forces in North Africa, however after the overthrow of the Vichy colonies had marked the end of operation North Africa, while the same time the need for troops in South East Asia was steadily growing, the Australian, New Zealand, and Indian divisions had been reassigned. This required a major reorganization of XXX Corps in particular, as its strength had been reduced to the 51st Highland Division and the South African 1st Infantry Division. XXX Corps was reinforced by 1st Canadian Infantry Division and 1st Canadian Tank Brigade in early July, and the British 1st Armoured Brigade at the end of that month. X Corps and XIII Corps had retained their Divisional strength, though XIII Corps was reinforced with the 1st Airborne Division. Much to their disappointment the paratroopers would only be called on to carry out small scale airborne landings with most of its forces being committed to bolster the other divisions [3].

As powerful a force as the British and Americans were mustering there was a keen awareness that Sicily was an almost inevitable target for an Allied assault and the build of men and materiel in North Africa could not be concealed from the Axis. This prompted a major intelligence operation intended to persuade the Wehrmacht to commit at least part of their available forces to other potential targets. At its simplest this took the form of photo reconnaissance and bombing raids against Corsica and Sardinia. False radio traffic and troop movements were also used to create the impression that Corsica was a serious target. A far more elaborate, perhaps even outlandish scheme was Operation Mincemeat. On June 9th 1942 the body of a Royal Marine Major washed up on a Spanish beach with a briefcase filled with vital documents chained to his wrist. These documents discussed plans for attacks against Corsica and a landing in Greece, with air and naval forces already building up in Crete lending weight to this information. The Spanish allowed the Abwehr to photograph the contents before returning the briefcase to the British Embassy and Major Martin was given a funeral with full military honours. This seeming disaster for the Allies was nothing of the sort for the simple reason that Major William Martin never existed. The body that washed up was that of a destitute young man whose corpse was acquired by British intelligence and whose identity has never been made public. The plans he carried were elaborate forgeries, bolstered by some very real letters composed by senior British officers whose candid content was designed to explain why they were being delivered by courier rather than sent by radio [4].

This deception did have a significant impact on German deployments. XIV Panzer Corps, which had been withdrawn from the operational planning for Case Blue to be sent to Sicily, lost 3rd Motorised Infantry Division to Corsica while the 1st Fallschirmjäger Panzer Division Hermann Goering was dispatched to Greece. This reduced XIV Panzer to only two divisions, including 1st Fallschirmjäger-Division, which was the reorganized 7th Air Division. This had only been partially rebuilt from the debacle on Malta and was distinctly understrength when the Allies landed in Sicily. Despite promises from the Germans to the Ciano government to the contrary no replacement divisions were forthcoming and indeed a number that might have been deployed were instead poised to ‘reinforce’ the Italian mainland in the event that Hitler decided that Ciano was going to betray the Axis [5]. These limited deployments created considerable discontent among the General Staff in Berlin. The consensus was that Case Blue had to be driven forward with the maximum available striking power and with the unwelcome decision to occupy the whole of France, as well as the obvious Allied intent of making a landing somewhere on the French coast in the summer of 1942, the Wehrmacht was already stretched thin. When this was placed in the context of grave doubts in the General Staff about the ability of the Italians to effectively defend their own territory it is hardly surprising that they didn’t resist the dispersal of troops originally intended for Sicily to other possible invasion targets.

While the Germans were dubious about the capabilities and fighting spirit of their ally Mussolini had been determined to mount a strong defence of Sicily, all the while talking in terms of retaking Libya and conquering Egypt once the tide turned against the Allies. Even after his death the plan to turn Sicily into a fortress island remained unchanged, mainly because no one in Rome wanted to look weak or hesitant, and because they had no better ideas for how to proceed so long as Italy remained in the war. Whatever the public stance of the Italian leadership many in the high command, including Marshal Badoglio, feared a landing in Sicily were doomed to become a repeat of operations in Libya. However much of a fight the best of the Italian forces put up they would inevitably be overwhelmed by superior Allied manpower and materiel, especially with the Americans fully involved in operation. The best that could be hoped for was to inflict enough casualties that the Allies would think twice about an invasion of the Italian mainland and even that increasingly seemed like wishful thinking, the Allies were rapidly approaching the point where they would accept nothing short of unconditional surrender from the Axis nations and Italy was increasingly caught between a rock and hard place politically and militarily [6].

The rapid advances made in the early weeks of Case Blue produced a fresh surge of optimism in Berlin, further reinforced by the outcome of Operation Jubilee. The repulse of the Canadian and American troops at Dieppe seemed to show that an amphibious assault could be thrown back into the sea, with Goebel’s propaganda machine spreading the message that the much vaunted second front had crushed at its inception. This viewpoint found little support in Rome, where it was suspected that Dieppe had been nothing more than a diversion to draw off Wehrmacht forces and further weaken the defence of Sicily [7].

Italian efforts to strengthen the defences of Sicily were not helped by the steadily increasing efforts of the RAF and Royal Navy to strangle the lines of supply between Sicily and the Italian mainland. Forays by the Regia Marina had become rare to the point of near extinction and the Regia Aeronautica was simply outclassed and outnumbered as the USAAF also began to deploy forces to forward bases in North Africa. These supply problems did nothing to bolster the morale of the Italian forces designated to defend Sicily and the high-handed attitude of their Wehrmacht allies when it came to who got priority for the supplies that were sent just made matters worse, with the growing antipathy between the Wehrmacht and the Italian forces reinforcing the apprehension that Sicily was doomed and quite possibly the whole of Italy along with it [8].

[1] Malamute rather than Husky, simply because of butterflies and a reflection that this isn’t the version of OTL.

[2] It was all but inevitable Fredendall would turn up here given his standing with the top brass prior to his horrendous performance in OTL, and no he won’t do any better in Sicily.

[3] The Allied forces are a blend of those used in Operation Torch, El Alamein, and Operation Husky, with some adjustments for the removal of so many ANZAC and Indian troops.

[4] There are somethings it would be out of the question to butterfly away, and if you are wondering, yes agents Garbo and Zig Zag are still going to have a role to play.

[5] Things are getting ever more poisonous between Berlin and Rome, not helped by the fact that Hitler has good reason to be paranoid this time…

[6] As far as the Italians can see its be occupied by the Allies or become a complete German puppet; they have no idea that the Allies are already looking elsewhere.

[7] Overall Dieppe came to late in the day to seriously affect the defence of Sicily either way.

[8] The situation is so bad for the Axis that even Fredendall can’t save them…
Good that Harold Alexander is running the show, but later on there will have to be someone with the skills and logistical grounding of Ike to pull together a winning alliance. And where is he anyway?

As to MacArthur, can't the author arrange for a plane or car crash?
 
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Garrison

Donor
Good that Harold Alexander is running the show, but later on there will have to be someone with the skills and logistical grounding of Ike to pull together a winning alliance. And where is he anyway?
Eisenhower is around, he just hasn't been appointed to SHAEF yet, there are still some arguments over who should get the job, but after Sicily he will be the logical candidate.
 
23rd September – 30th October 1942 – Sicily – Operation Malamute – Part II – Securing the Beachhead

Garrison

Donor
23rd September – 30th October 1942 – Sicily – Operation Malamute – Part II – Securing the Beachhead

There were four landing zones designated for the initial assault on the 23rd of September, each assigned to one of the available Corps, with the American and British Corps being grouped together to make co-ordination and supply easier, in theory at least. From west to east the deployment was, US I Armoured Corps landing at Licata and II Corps between Gela and Scoglitti. XXX Corps landed around Pachino, with XIII Corps landing around Avola. X Corps was not involved in the initial assault and did not make its landing until the 26th, coming ashore just south of Catania. This was a deliberate strategic choice on the part of the Allied planners and was something of a risk, one though that promised considerable rewards if it succeeded. The Axis forces would be on high alert after the initial landings but there was an expectation that this would mean Axis reserves would be pulled south, which would allow X Corp to make a rapid thrust into to the Italian rear areas and severe their lines of communication. If on the other hand the defenders heavily reinforced Catania, then X Corps could face heavy losses. All five corps would only be landing their leading divisions in the first wave, the rest would follow once the beachheads were secure and if possible, a working port seized to ease the constraints of having to bring men and supplies over the beaches, which was another reason for trying to draw away the defenders around Catania, no one wanted a repeat of the devastation inflicted on the port at Dieppe. The gamble largely paid off and while the port facilities at Catania were damaged, they were rendered usable with in a week, partly owing to the reluctance of the Italians to destroy part of their homeland [1].

There were also a number commando attacks and airborne landings included in the plan for the opening phase. The larger formations were tasked with seizing bridges and road junctions, in the expectation that they would be rapidly reinforced from the beachheads. Small squads of Commandos were assigned to carrying out acts of sabotage, targeting defensive positions, radio stations and telephone communications to spread chaos and confusion amongst the defenders. The airborne attack in particular met with mixed success, as the Allies faced the same issues of parachutists missing their targets and becoming scattered that had affected German airborne operations. The paratroopers dropped by glider did somewhat better overall and along with Commandos they did create considerable disruption and prevented the destruction of several important bridges that would otherwise have slowed the Allied advance [2].

The paratroopers and commandos were not the only ones to sabotage the defence of the island, because for once the idea of a Fifth Column was not mere propaganda. Unfortunately for the longer-term future of Italy this came in the shape of the Sicilian Mafia. With the Mafia in New York being heavily involved with the docks and the dock workers union the US authorities had found it expedient to make an under the table deal with the mobsters to keep the docks and the flow of the supplies across the Atlantic flowing smoothly. The OSS had built on this by persuading American Mafiosi to use their connections in the ‘old country’ to aid the Allies. Since the Fascist regime had done much to crack down on the criminal gangs in Sicily the local mobsters were only too willing to help, in the expectation that the aftermath of the removal of the Fascists they would have far more breathing room, and that the Allies would turn a blind eye to some of their activities. This unwritten agreement provided vital intelligence about Axis defences on the island resulted in supplies and equipment being stolen from the forces on an industrial scale, alongside arson, murder, and certain villages in the heart of the island becoming virtual no-go zones to Italian soldiers [3].

The main amphibious landings on the 23rd were anti-climactic as the beaches were only lightly held, the Axis forces had decided to adopt a defence in depth strategy, intending to draw in and exhaust the invading force before counterattacking and destroying them. This plan was undermined by the fact that the Allied deception plan had been an unequivocal success and even as the landings took place German units were still being dispatched to Greece. Even by the time X Corps landed on the 26th many in Berlin were convinced that the Sicily landings were only part of a larger plan, and that an attack on Greece was still imminent. Intelligence from Rome that contradicted this view was dismissed for several vital days as being ‘self-serving’. This is not to say the troops on the beaches came away unscathed with some Italian units once again putting up stiff resistance even when outnumbered and outflanked. These instances served as a sobering reminder of what might have happened if the Axis had not dispersed so many units to Sardinia and Greece and further emphasized the importance of keeping the Axis from focusing their attention on the chosen landing ground for Operation Millennium [4].

Even after X Corps were driving inland from Catania, cutting off at least two Italian divisions, and it was clear that there were no Allied forces heading for Greece neither the Abwehr nor Adolf Hitler believed that they had fallen victim to a deception, they chose instead to believe that the British had realized that the documents had been compromised and the Allies had thus adjusted their plans accordingly. This refusal to contemplate that they had been misdirected by the Allies meant that they did nothing to review the conduct of Abwehr operations or the security of their thoroughly compromised spy network in Britain [5].

The continued focus on Greece also hampered the Regia Marina’s plans for a response to the landing, not that even an immediate response by the naval forces the Italians could muster would have offered any likelihood of obstructing the invasion given the imbalance of naval forces in the Mediterranean, even after a substantial part of the Royal Navy’s Mediterranean Fleet had been dispatched to the Pacific. The Regia Marina taskforce that did set out for Sicily on the 29th of September was led by the battleships Vittorio Veneto and Giulio Cesare, the latter having returned to service in May 1942 after being damaged during Operation Judgement, though the repairs were far from satisfactory. She had been plagued with mechanical issues ever since leaving dry dock and there was unease in the Regia Marina about sending her on such a high-risk mission. There was no choice in the matter however, once the Germans accepted that there would be no invasion of Greece in the near future, they did a complete about face and insisted that the Italian fleet intervene immediately in the battle for Sicily. The Ciano regime, desperate to appease Berlin, ordered the Regia Marina to attack the landings with all possible speed. The battleships were supported by two cruisers, four destroyers and five MAS boats. They were also expected at the last minute to escort a group of transports delivering equipment and supplies to the defending forces, potentially limiting the entire force to the speed of the slowest transport, flatly contradicting the earnest insistence on a swift naval response. This illustrated the disorganization that was gripping the Italian High Command, exacerbated by the fact that not everyone was looking to the Ciano government for direction [6].

Some sense of realism led to a modification of the orders, meaning that one destroyer and two of the MAS boats would provide minimal cover for the transports while the rest of the force pressed on at best speed, though at this point the landing forces were firmly entrenched and the Allied naval forces knew they were coming. The Royal Navy carriers Victorious and Glorious and the USN carrier Wasp had carried out air attacks in support of the landings and they had now been repositioned to intercept the approaching Italian force. The outcome was all but inevitable given the absence of air support for the Regia Marina ships and the fact that the three carriers successfully co-ordinated their strikes on this occasion, which went in at 0830 hours on the 1st of October. The Giulio Cesare took three torpedoes delivered by FAA Barracudas while the Vittorio Veneto took one torpedo and three bomb hits hit courtesy of the Wasp’s air group. The cruiser Bolzano was also hit by a British torpedo, blowing off the ships bows, and she sank in under ten minutes. The Giulio Cesare went down at 1000 hours, while the Vittorio Veneto somehow stayed afloat and was towed back to port, by the cruiser Luigi Cadorna in concert with the destroyer Antonio da Noli. The transport convoy however managed to evade the attentions of the Allies, at least until the cargo ships had docked in Palermo, at which point the RAF intervened and sank one of them before it could be unloaded and damaged another. The rest of the group finished their unloading and departed under cover of darkness. Though no one taking part knew it this was the last major surface action of the Regia Marina, and it was another defeat that achieved nothing of any strategic value, it did not even successfully appease the Germans as other events served to bring down the full weight of the Wehrmacht on Italy [7].

A far greater threat to the success of the invasion than the Regia Marina emerged from the ranks of the Allies own senior commanders as General Fredendall’s inadequacies threatened to allow the Wehrmacht to split the American and British forces, potentially turning the initial Allied success into a disaster [8].

[1] Catania is something of a test for tactics to try and take a port with reducing the place to burning rubble.

[2] The Allies need the experience of mounting airborne assaults and they are certainly getting it on Sicily.

[3] As reprehensible as dealing with the Mafia was if it saved the lives of the soldiers going ashore them the Allies were bound to take the opportunity.

[4] it’s a case of ‘hit the enemy where they aren’t’ and making sure that the Axis forces aren’t in Normandy.

[5] Right through the war the Germans seemed unwilling to contemplate the idea that they were being so consistently outplayed by the Allies, perhaps inevitable given the size of some of the egos in Berlin.

[6] There are some big cracks opening in the Italian leadership over what direction Italy should take.

[7] We are not done with political machinations in Rome.

[8] And Fredendall’s poor decision making will be at the centre of the next update.
 
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