Nobody Expects: The Spanish Revolution

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Onerom, Aug 2, 2019.

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  1. Threadmarks: Opening Post and World Map

    Onerom Orchard Lord

    Joined:
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    Murcian Free State
    Nobody Expects
    [​IMG]
    For some time I've been following (and, of course, enjoying) some of the great graphic timelines of this forum: Kanan's Our Fair Country, LeinadB93's Hail, Britannia, KaiserEmu's Of Droughts and Flooding Rains and Planita13's A Shining Valley; and I have felt the impulse to try and make my own TL in a similar style (albeit it will be difficult to reach their qualities, to be fair). So, the last couple of months, more or less, I've been developing in my mind the basics of this TL of mine, which would be centered around the idea of a more successful Spanish XIXth century that leads to a less disfunctional Spain, and its place in an altered (and I hope interesting) world setting. I'll try to follow the POD(s) logically, although I don't want to be constrained and I'll embrace the "rule of cool" and paralelisms to OTL in order to spice things up when I feel convenient.

    The primary POD of Nobody Expects is the survival of one of the older sons of Charles IV of Spain, Carlos Domingo Eusebio (born in 1780, dead in OTL in 1783). It won't have consequences (at a macro level, at least) until 1808, when French troops enter Spain theoretically to invade Portugal in the context of the Peninsular War. The existence of this Prince Charles, older than OTL Prince (here Infante) Ferdinand, leads to a different Aranjuez Mutiny, a conflict between the two Bourbon scions that leads to civil war across the Spanish Empire and a different Peninsular War that spares Spain of OTL devastation. There's also a minor previous POD, in 1613, that's really just to justify a fetish of mine
    (Hispanic Murcian Texas) and to add some uniqueness.

    Every comment, appreciation, question, suggestion etc. is very welcome, and although the main "big events" and the general flow of the world are already mostly planned, there's plenty of room to include new content to flesh out this TL, so if you want to propose anything go ahead. And to begin with, I hereby present the world map as of the 1st of January, 2019.

    [​IMG]
    I would also appreciate requests on which parts of the world you would like to know more about, so I can focus on them in the updates. Hope you like it and thanks for reading!
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
  2. hitcho11 Well-Known Member

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    San Miguel de Culiacán, Nueva España
    Please elaborate
    Also, how did Mexico end up so screwed?
     
  3. Bennett Human Time-Waster

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    Jun 3, 2017
    Italy looks big. Tell us more about Italy, please!
     
  4. ETGalaxy Long live the King of America!

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    This looks really neat, and the world map has a really nice color scheme! My one suggestion would be to change up some of the borders in Africa from OTL a bit, which is just a slight bug peeve of mine, but even then your African borders look way more divergent from OTL than most graphic TLs, which is a win in my opinion.
     
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  5. Tethys00 Mod of r/imaginarymaps Donor

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    Great Salt Lake City, The Republic of Deseret
    I think the western states would be shaped differently
     
  6. TheKutKu Well-Known Member

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    Autonomous Region of Cabinda
    Welcome and good luck! Kudos on starting a thread.

    Hmm let's see, a Gran colombia, nice, would love to know more, i like that big italy and imperial germany, nice, uh oh, ireland and korea are british/japanese, this doesn't sound too good.

    Looks at Africa, verify it is indeed in 2019 and not 1919

    [​IMG]

    Alright, how did that happen?
     
  7. ariyarathna 『 yee haw 』

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    wessex 2
    the continued existence of colonies does worry me to a degree (to say the least). how exactly did retaining those colonies, especially in africa, come about? it was an expensive, exploitative endeavor and native rebellions are costly.
     
  8. Gabzcervo Timeline raises FAQs

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    Binangonan, Philippines
    How did Ethiopia end up gaining Somalia and other neighboring countries?

    How did Britain had taken the Canary Islands?
     
  9. Onerom Orchard Lord

    Joined:
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    Thank you everyone for taking interest on this!

    The Republic of Texas is one of the first things I plan to address, for now let's say that a certain minority evicted around the 1610s manages to convince king Phillip the II of Spain to allow them to settle the sparsely populated New Spanish north to convert the natives to prove the sincerity of their Catholic faith.

    Mexico suffered some of the fate of OTL Spain: it was the center of power of Ferdinand when he fled Spain, and so after the Napoleonic Wars tried to mantain dominance over the rest of Spanish America by the force of arms in the wake of British support to the newly declared republics, bankrupting itself in the process, falling to civil wars between liberals and conservatives and seccessionist revolts on the periphery. And that's when the United States enter the stage...

    It's big, indeed, but I have the feeling that it only makes her more unstable (parliamentary speaking) than in OTL, having to take into account the sizable non-Italian minorities.

    Well, the basemap (and thus, the sea colors) is the QBAM updated by Bob Hope, so thanks to him. The country color scheme is a mix between the standard and my own modifications. On the subject of the African borders, I've been conflicted: European history up to the 1870s is mostly convergent with ours, so the Scramble of the 1880s couldn't been radically different, and at the same time I wanted it not to be directly OTL, so I thought I had reached a compromise.

    I understand you refer to the borders of the western United States, don't you? They have, like the African borders, been difficult: I didn't find a reason to change them outside the Southwest, but then again suggestions are welcomed!

    Thank you! Well, the Republic of Colombia arose from the struggles between Carlists and Fernandines in New Granada during the 1810s, and cemented its independence in the war against New Spain during the early 1820s.

    Needless to say I do not advocate colonialism nor the horrors it entails, but I wanted to create a different scenario than our world, not necessarily better (nor worse; some places are better, some are worse). British Ireland is something I have changed a couple of times, originally OTL Republic of Ireland was independent, but I gave it a second thought and believed that the lack of British implication in a major WWI-like conflict could result in a different path for Home Rule. Japanese Korea was also a second thought, my initial plan was an independent Republic of Korea (and a Republic of Japan) after a major Pacific War, but many timelines have a Western clash against the Japanese in the 40s, so I changed it and decided to allow the Empire to remain (although there is an Asian war, that forces Japan to relinquish Manchuria, it is not a war like our Pacific Theatre).

    I understand the existance of colonialism in the XXIst century is worrying from OTL perspective, but ITL there hasn't been a WWII-like conflict in Europe, nor have the Europeans suffered the horrors of an ideology like Nazism. The lack of both means that the European empires didn't bleed themselves out fighting and that XIXth/early XXth century mentalities are widespread even in the late XXth century. I believe it is coherent with the TL and allows me to explore the implications.

    In 2019, the only states that have outright colonial territories in Africa are Italy, Portugal and France. In the case of Italy, the official position of the Republic of Italy is that the territories of the Quarta Sponda are an integral part of the country, with full representation on the national parliament and devolved powers in the form of the autonomous republics of Libya and Tunisia, of which the former has an Italian majority while in the latter they form a sizable minority. The Portuguese, on the other hand, sponsor Lusitropicalism as the state ideology and argue that Angola and Mozambique are overseas extensions of the Portuguese nation, denying any need for devolution. Finally, France regards Algeria as an integral part of the French metropole, and Frenchmen are a sizable minority there. The rest, French West Africa, is under direct rule from Paris with very little self-government at the local level, in a system inherited from the dictatorship with the objective (at least officially) of assimilating the natives into the republican tradition so that they can be full French citizens; the truth is that little has changed since colonial times, and unrest is growing by the day.

    Then we have the Boer states of Orange Free State and South African Republic (Transvaal), that although not strictly "colonial", are built around Afrikaner ethnonationalism despite Afrikaners being a minority there and treat the African (and to a lesser extent, non-Afrikaner Europeans) as second-class citizens with little rights. Similar, but fundamentally different, we have the British self-governing dominions of Cape of Good Hope, Natalia and Rhodesia, with varying treatments of the native African majority populations: in Cape, there's no official distinction between Afro-Capeans and Euro-Capeans, and while racism is widespread, the government does not encourage it; in Natalia, Afro-Natalians have full rights but there are quotas in the Parliament and administration to ensure Euro-Natalians doesn't loose their privileged position; in Rhodesia there's a segregationist system by which Afro-Rhodesians have "full rights" in designated "native lands" but have certain restrictions in the rest of the territory, and numerous laws and practises, although not openly racist, hinder the advance of Afro-Rhodesians to entrench the position of Euro-Rhodesians.

    Ethiopia gained the former territories of Italian East Africa after the Second Italo-Ethiopian War in the 1950s, while it bought British Somaliland earlier. I must admit it is one of the things that I have done "just because", to have a big successful African country that repels European colonialism and becomes and example for colonized peoples of Africa.

    The Canary Islands were ceded by Ferdinand of Bourbon to his British allies after he fled Spain for Spanish America in 1808, to avoid them falling to Charles V of Spain, allied to Napoleon. Spain relinquished its claim to them in 1815 at the Congress of Vienna, and while Ferdinand claimed them as part of his policy of uniting the former Spanish Empire under his rule from Mexico City, after the declaration of the Mexican Empire the Canaries were mostly forgotten and remained as a Crown Colony of the British Empire until granted responsible government in the 1910s.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
  10. ariyarathna 『 yee haw 』

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    i'd like to point out i'm glad i got a full response because it lets me look at the different points within.

    'the lack of both [world war 2 and the nazis] means that european empires didn't bleed themselves out fighting and that 19th/early 20th century mentalities are widespread even in the late 20th century.'.

    decolonisation, especially with the existence of the united states and the soviet union (if it did exist) would still happen. both countries made it clear, especially post-ww2, that the days of anglo-french, low country, and iberian colonisation of africa and beyond was never set to last. as for 'early mentalities' holding on, i hope that the 'mission to civilise' mentality of the era isn't one of them, although i may probably have to accept that the aforementioned mentality does in fact exist. as much as i despise using the term in any context, it was the one european powers decided it was a just cause (spoilers for those reading that may actually support colonialism: it wasn't), and i can only assume it holds itself up one way or another in a world with retained colonies, even if they were costly to maintain.

    'the only states to have outright colonial territories in africa are italy, portugal, and france.'

    even if the territories seized during the colonial era have 'full representation', the presence of a 'sizable minority' of italians spells more bad news than anything. it doesn't just rub me the wrong way, i'm pretty sure a sizable minority of a colonial party, especially in the context of somewhere such as africa, is just overall disconcerting. it doesn't just mirror otl, it's pretty much what they tried before ww2.
    when it comes to portugal, the justification of its colonial territories being extensions of portugal as a state doesn't hold as much water as this timeline's government would probably want to admit. just declaring them integral because they have profitable oil and a lusophone ethnic minority (i assume) seems more as a way to justify continued exploitation of regional resources, which can only be compounded by the presence of oil around the southern african region as a whole that is in some parts confirmed and in others believed to exist.
    finally, french africa. the real question is how long colonial unrest has been brewing. furthermore, if it has been growing for so long, how have they managed to repress it effectively? africa, plain and simple as a continent, is huge. the subsaharan population, especially in the 21st century, is also quite large. again, assuming from otl here, that the population trend is of a similar status, then the population would progressively become harder for the french administration to work with. earlier i said that italian libya having a sizable minority was problematic, but that trend continuing to french algeria is, really, probably even worse! as it turns out by reading the response more than once, the 'mission to civilise' seems to have entrenched itself/

    'then we have the boer states of orange free state and south african republic (transvaal), that although not strictly "colonial", are built around afrikaner ethnonationalism despite afrikaners being a minority there and treat the african (and to a lesser extent, non-afrikaner europeans) as second-class citizens with little rights.'

    i'll at least say that the ethnostates that wanted to be remaining as incredibly racist hellscapes as opposed to romanticised republics that fought 'prejudiced' and 'ignorant' governments that ended up condemning their political desires is at least something i can accept. colonisation in southern africa and, by extension, rhodesia during the era of the boer settlers and eventually the british would be able to see beyond the lie that many rhodieboos like to paint. the bantustans are, quite admittedly, absolutely hideous and i despise them with every fibre of my being. as for their justification, i unfortunately can see why they'd exist to begin with. the presence of bantustans to keep the native peoples (again, i'm looking at rhodesia here primarily) in their 'place', as dictated by colonist dogma. as for the idea of the boer republics going as far as to entrench their sole superiority above even other european settlers, it does have the justification of the british taking the cape behind it.

    tl;dr: decolonisation was pretty much always an inevitability (i have a feeling some of the more imperialist folk on this site could read a book or two about imperial expansionism and its unsustainable nature), and its continuation into 2019 is something that worries me. i'd also like to point out the presence of 'sizable minorities' in north africa is something i just really can't stand. hopefully this response was worded well enough to not go absolutely ham, and, if it is, more directed at colonialism than a personal attack.
     
  11. Onerom Orchard Lord

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    Thanks for the response, I'm happy to see you get interested in the TL. I'll try to adress your concerns the best I can.

    This world's United States tends to support decolonization efforts both because of the ideals upon which the country was founded and as a tool to weaken the European powers, and in fact helped to speed up the decolonization of South East Asia, especially in Indonesia. However, in this world the Soviet Union never arises, nor any similar revolutionary Marxist regime, and I think that’s crucial to understand the slowing of decolonization, sorry for not bringing it up earlier. That, together with the lack of Nazism to force the West to reflex about the ideologies upon which their societies are founded (“scientific” racism, nationalism, militarism, imperialism…) make me think colonialism will last longer.

    As for the “mission to civilize”, yes, it is entrenched in the French psique, and to a lesser extent the Portuguese one too, less so the Italian. France went from being the second Great Power to suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of a coalition of German states and Italy, and soon after fell to a nationalist dictatorship that lasted nearly 6 decades, which turned inward and clinged to the colonies as a prestige and face-saving measure. Right parties are of the opinion that France must assimilate its colonies if it wants to stand on par with the other great powers, while the Left is divided among the more moderates who want decolonization but believe a transition period similar to the British model is necessary and the more radicals who advocate for immediate independence for the colonies; there must be taken into account also the position of the colons of Algeria, which reject every measure minimally aimed at self-governance in the colonies, forming a solid voting block that lobbies against decolonization.

    In Portugal, on the other hand, the citizens are more apathic towards the colonies, and only the support of the UK allows the Portuguese State to retain Angola and Mozambique. The Italian case must be set apart, I’ll go further below.

    Don’t get me wrong, “sizable minority” doesn’t amount to more than 15% of the population, and does not involve genocide policies if that’s what you’re afraid happened. From what I have researched, the Italian population of Tunisia in OTL 1910, under French rule, was around 100.000 out of 1.900.000, roughly 5%, so I find plausible that at the end of colonial rule 10% of Tunisians are Italians or of Italian descent. Taking into account that and the links that will form between Tunisia and the metropole, I find an autonomous republic with nearly full power over everything outside military affairs, foreign relations and commerce a plausible compromise solution. As the Italian majority on Libya, I’ve been reading threads in this forum and the general consensus is that an Italy that holds it to the 60s will turn it Italian by virtue of the small native initial population and emigration from the metropole.

    The Portuguese position on Lusotropicalism is directly taken from OTL, I’m just extending it over time due to the absence of a Soviet Union ITTL, and in fact I haven’t thought about it much aside from “okey, Portugal: no SU to support independentists and closeness to the UK which is a great power, I suppose the colonies won’t earn freedom in the foreseeable future”.

    The demographic trends of French Africa are similar to OTL, and French in Algeria make up about 5% of the population or about 2 million people, again I didn’t mean it as the result of genocidal policies but of continuing emigration and small amounts of native assimilation (not that it isn’t bad as well, trying to erode the native culture in favor of yours, but cannot be compared to industrial-scale slaughter). Frenchmen in the rest of the colonies are way less than 1%, and most of the administration is carried out by assimilated natives coopted by the regime, which is one of the sources of unrest as those middlemen begin questioning why must the French govern them.

    I’m not sure I entirely understand the first sentence (English isn’t my first language), but if you are afraid I want to portrait colonialism and apartheid-like practices in a benevolent or desirable light, I assure you it is not my intention. The reason I have made this choices is because they seemed to fit in the scenario, and especially because they give me a great source for narrative: race relations and conflict in British South Africa, effects on France of civil campaigns for self-government in the colonies, conflicts between the French government and the Colon parties, maybe a renewed independence war in Mozambique, the Boer states as a source of international condemnation and the denounce of British hypocrisy for not acting against them, great powers competing for influence supporting one faction or the other, etc.

    Well, although the year is the same as ours, It doesn’t mean ITTL the world can be considered to have progressed as much as ours, neither technologically nor especially socially. In the end it’s just a scenario to explore other possibilities, it is not a wonderful or ideal world, it is something I want to be interesting to read, and conflict and drama are essential for it to be so. I don’t feel attacked, I’m in fact very glad you’ve taken the time to write a long response, and while I’d like for you to give it a chance, I understand you have every right to dislike it and say so.
     
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  12. ariyarathna 『 yee haw 』

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    'As for the “mission to civilize”, yes, it is entrenched in the French psique, and to a lesser extent the Portuguese one too, less so the Italian.'

    considering the soviet union doesn't exist ittl, i can see where decolonisation would be slowed, since a lot of otl decolonisation-related wars often had soviet-backed revolutionary groups, such as the angolan mpla and zanla of, well, zimbabwe. then again, i don't doubt that there's at least a few movements aiming to be rid of their colonial masters. the continued presence of more staunch victorian/edwardian policies staying around in a world where they aren't blown out of the water is also an unfortunate but understandable outcome. the french 'mission to civilise' following a nationalist dictatorship feels a rather 'in character' approach to an authoritarian, conservative state. i'd also like to point out that the impact of the colonial territories on french politics is better than them just ignoring them, as well as the divides between the more anti-colonial parties (of course, i doubt anyone in power or mainland politics really knows what's best for their colonial subjects in truth). to not ignore colonial apathy, it doesn't entirely come as surprising that portugal's longest ally would be the only one truly propping up their colonial holdings.

    'From what I have researched, the Italian population of Tunisia in OTL 1910, under French rule, was around 100.000 out of 1.900.000, roughly 5%, so I find plausible that at the end of colonial rule 10% of Tunisians are Italians or of Italian descent. Taking into account that and the links that will form between Tunisia and the metropole, I find an autonomous republic with nearly full power over everything outside military affairs, foreign relations and commerce a plausible compromise solution. As the Italian majority on Libya, I’ve been reading threads in this forum and the general consensus is that an Italy that holds it to the 60s will turn it Italian by virtue of the small native initial population and emigration from the metropole.'

    given libya's location in the world, parts of its population being from that of a conquering power isn't unheard of, an example of this being the turkish-descended kouloughlis. the growth of the italian minority in tunisia, meanwhile, i'm a bit surprised by the otl statistics. i would've expected it to be much lower. then again, the presence of a 'native' european minority existing as justification to keep ahold of the colony (with full representation offered) seems like the key to keeping hold of tunisia, even if it's best for a country to have self-determination. as for algeria and the french colonies, the minority being as small as it is seems more reasonable given the thankful lack of total ethnic cleansing.

    'I’m not sure I entirely understand the first sentence (English isn’t my first language), but if you are afraid I want to portrait colonialism and apartheid-like practices in a benevolent or desirable light, I assure you it is not my intention. The reason I have made this choices is because they seemed to fit in the scenario, and especially because they give me a great source for narrative: race relations and conflict in British South Africa, effects on France of civil campaigns for self-government in the colonies, conflicts between the French government and the Colon parties, maybe a renewed independence war in Mozambique, the Boer states as a source of international condemnation and the denounce of British hypocrisy for not acting against them, great powers competing for influence supporting one faction or the other, etc.'

    so what i was trying to state is that there's an unfortunate amount of people on the internet that tend to ignore the reality of situations of places such as rhodesia and apartheid south africa, only looking at photos of the time and believing them to be some 'lost age' of cultural prowess. i can give praise for them not being portrayed as bygone glorious states, since the minority rule cranked up to 11 in those states was a reality of harsh repression of ethnic majorities, censorship, and violence to hold control.

    so overall, my thoughts on the colonial situation are unlikely to change. furthermore, i can't see going back and forth about the topic ending too well. as you thanked me for typing a long response, i'd like to thank you for the same. i'll probably check in on the thread every now and again to see any future developments.

    (small edit - fixed formatting because i'm bad at multiquoting)
     
  13. Threadmarks: Spain's Wikipage

    Onerom Orchard Lord

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    It feels only right to beging with the Wikipedia page of TTL's Spain, which at the moment is just the introduction and the Wikibox, but I plan to update it progressively. It follows OTL wikipedia structure and not many things are changed, but the devil's in the details.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. APeninSpace You hear about that thing down in Samothrace?

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    that map's a fucking beaut. Although, I do question the amount of butterflies you're killing; Africa is a prime example. Why would the French have the same colonial borders with a POD almost a century before the scramble, and why would Russia with republican colour have the Tsarist internal borders? For that matter, why is the western border OTL just made slightly smoother?
     
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  15. Gabingston Well-Known Member

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    Minnesota
    When and how does the Spanish Revolution occur? Does the French Revolution still happen?
     
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  16. Onerom Orchard Lord

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    Yeah, I know, I'm limiting butterflies in Europe outside Spain until the 1870s, so the Scramble of the 1880s is mostly similar to ours but not exactly the same, so I didn't see the reason to change French borders. As for the Russian subdivisions, the ones from OTL are the result of Soviet redesign, so my options were to use them and ignore convergence or keep the Tsarist previous ones and suppose the new regime doesn't change them. The western border follows mainly old governorate borders, with some minor adjustments to avoid salients.

    The Spanish Revolution takes place during the revolutionary wave of 1910-15, and it is in character similar to OTL German Novemberrevolution of 1918-19. Yes, the French Revolution occurs on schedule and, outside an altered Peninsular War, follows OTL.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2019
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  17. Threadmarks: Spanish Schism

    Onerom Orchard Lord

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    A new update to offer some insight on the end of the Spanish Empire ITTL and setting the stage for the XIXth century.

    [​IMG]
    And also a non-exhaustive non-ordered list of to do things to organize me better:
    • Finish up the Spanish Wikipage (long term).
    • Texan update.
    • Italian update.
    • Spanish American Independence Wars.
    • Empire of Mexico, its demise and the Mexican-American War (constants and variables, always constants and variables...)
    • Argentinian Civil War.
    • The Great War.
    • Revolutionary wave of 1910-1915 and Spanish Revolution.
    For now I think those are the main major updates, depending on my free time and inspiration I may make smaller things inbetween.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2019
  18. ETGalaxy Long live the King of America!

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    This is a pretty cool start to the TL, and I love the idea of the Empire of the Americas and the Indies, it’s definitely a unique and, AFAIK, plausible scenario.
     
  19. Threadmarks: The Republic of Texas

    Onerom Orchard Lord

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    Murcian Free State
    [​IMG]

    Also, I miscalculated how soon a non-American Texas would affect the United States, so if anyone knowledgeable in Antebellum politics can lend me a hand it would be great.
     
  20. Hindustani Person Ambiguously Brown

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    Unspecific Autonomous Region of Nowheristan
    Who’s Charlotte of Mexico?
     
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