The war would be done in four phases, wouldn't it? The Third Internationale being much more cautious yet atrocious in its campaign due to their army being annihilated and Germany entering its Juche phase surely prolonged the war once again. Now, the Titans have revealed their true forms to become the savage beasts that they would really be.
Yep, four phases. "Juche phase" is also a pretty apt description for what's in store for Germany.
With the War of Resources though, won't the Second Internationale and the Fascists find allies overseas to distract each other with the creation of other fronts? Italy could persuade the Former Entente to aide the Fascists in helping them gain decisive control over the rest of the Mediterranean against the Third Internationale. A socialist revolution could then be orchestrated in Turkey due to strategic need first and foremost, which would then cause the nascent anti-Communist alliance to persuade Japan in declaring war against the Soviets. The Soviets, seeing the risk, then contacted the Kuomintang and Indian governments in the South for an alliance against Japanese aggression before proceeding to restart the fronts with the Entente.
I can't reveal where exactly the Great War will expand to next, but you're right to guess that finding new allies to open up new fronts will be important going into Phase Three. The Entente and the Co-Prosperity Sphere are both pretty keen on neutrality for the time being, however, there are plenty of other nations around the world that could get pulled into the war.
So the tail is now wagging the dog. At it seems their vision of the New Western Civilization is a boot stomping on a human face, forever. It seems that the Commonwealth Navy's focus on big things and inability to effectively adapt to anti-submarine warfare is what crippled them. At least they live to fight another day, though they're now even more vulnerable to the German navy.
The Workers' Commonwealth is definitely not in a good spot right now. Fortunately for the Brits, they're far from a priority for the Germans. And yeah, Brazil is now effectively the de facto leader of the Entente and its newfound military strength is the only thing really keeping what remains of the British and French empires from completely collapsing going into the 1930s.
On the map it seems the front lines of Hungary (well, the Translethania whatever ) haven't moved at all since last updates. It sounded like there was significant fighting against Croatia, were things really that static there?
Just edited the map to have the frontlines in Austria change down due to the Germans being able to repel the Transleithanians and Soviets from Vienna following the Battle of Berlin, however, otherwise, yeah, the frontlines there have been pretty stagnant. I will point out that I often retroactively change the frontlines depicted on maps once I further develop the situation there in later updates, however, broadly speaking the war in the Balkans is essentially a stagnant conflict between the Italian-backed Illyrians and Russian-backed Transleithanians.
I'm surprised Berlin is even habitable after all that fire and poison bombardment.
Many parts of the city, particularly in the east, aren't habitable. The west just lucked out with mostly being away from the frontlines, and government offices like the Reichstag and Royal Palace were both far from the frontlines for most of the Battle of Berlin and lacked much strategic value, hence why the German government felt comfortable returning even if some of the neighborhoods in the city are still toxic.
Oswald Mosley as the govenor of scotland? I can totally see him having troublesome sympathies for the fascist Heilsreich.
Mosley's been someone I've been hinting at since Chapter One and I'm pretty happy that I got to finally put him in a position of prominence. Rest assured, this is not the last time he will play an important role ITTL.
So the war between the CPs and the Entente formally ends. Does the latter include Belgium? Because there were hints way back of a German invasion of the Belgian Congo.
Yes it does. The German invasion of the Belgian Congo back in the first Glimpse Into the Future was a concept I scrapped (those posts were mostly me trying to flesh out ideas for future chapters that I had at the time) because it didn't really fit anywhere in Phase Two, however, I will eventually shed some light on how the Belgian Congo is being affected by the African Spring.
Building up Siberia makes sense, though there's the question of how much risk of Japanese intervention there is. Italy building up the colonies is believable, though likely to be very brutal given their fascism- perhaps similarly to OTL Manchukuo. Speaking of Italian colonies, any risk of Mussolini trying to invade Ethiopia while the chaos has everyone else distracted? That would also give their colonies a little more strategic depth than just those coastal slivers.
Actually, how come Italy didn't lose their East African holdings to the Entente after they started their war agaisnt France and broke African neutrality? Did the Treaty of Bizerte formally halt the Entente-Fascist war before the Commonwealth could strike?
Ethiopia is looking
very attractive to the Italians right now. As for why the Entente didn't invade Italian colonies, it was both not a priority for either the Republicans or the Loyalists and the Italians only broke the neutrality of France's colonies. The Loyalists are still very much keen on keeping their empire away from the Great War.
With the fronts in Germany not moving much, it figures all sides would go for low-hanging fruit elsewhere. And given hints of an incoming American Civil War, you bet all sides will take interest there. Hmm, let me consider how the factions are off resource-wise.
Soviet bloc/ "Eastern commies" Pretty well off with huge tracts of land and manpower. However, much of it is insufficiently ndustrialized and lacking in connecting infrastructure. Pretty good as-is if it holds together and can be built up.
Syndies/ "Western commies": Very bad situation, scotland for Algeria is a mediocre trade at best, with their territory and population pretty small already. At least the ceasefire with the Entente means they no longer need to worry about all their merchant ships getting destroyed, though Germany will still cause them problems. I'm sure that when America falls apart they'll be VERY eager to get that on their side.
Entente: Overall in a solid position, though somewhat underindustrialized, and the uprisings in Africa are going to cause them problems for a while. They're at peace now though, so they can likely keep what they have.
Central Powers/Fascists: Bad situation, they've got Italy, most of Germany, and part of the balkans, and the latter is vulnurable. Italy only has a couple tiny colonies, and given the ceasefire with the Entente it will be difficult to take advantage of the African Spring to expand said empire. They'll definitely try to get American reactionaries on their side.
This is a pretty accurate analysis of where the different factions, although I'd add that the only member of the Entente that is doing really well-off is Brazil. The French are in a pretty humiliating rump state position while the Loyalists will be consumed with rebellions in Africa for awhile.
One last thing: I am quite surprised that Red France didn't focus on driving out the Italians out of their last section of southern France before going for Algeria. As they're positioned right now, they're dangerously close to the major Mediterranean ports.
Oh yeah, that little section has been stagnant for years. There's definitely a bit of an ideological reasoning behind why the Commune went after the Republicans first, however, it's also worth pointing out that the Italians have dug themselves pretty well into the Alps but aren't currently posing a significant threat to southern ports due to the war of attrition there. With that being said, a good chunk of the LGPF will be free to go after that holdout now that the Entente has left the Great War.
Trends I see in the future:
1. Soviets/Syndies work on improving logistics and expanding industries. They may move critical industries away from areas in bomber or naval gunfire range to more defensible or remote areas.
2. Entente/Central Powers will work on reconstruction and improving naval shipping and technolgies since they depend on the sea for supply lines. More developments in anti-submarine, submarine tactics and technologies and carrier based airpower. The Soviets and Syndies will also work on this in a more limited fashion.
3. Entente will need to improve labor relations and woman suffrage in order to prevent unrest. They may also try some sort of power-sharing agreement with remaining colonies.
4. All sides will work on better aircraft, aircraft detection and defense technologies.
5. Continued proxy wars and border clashes as older weapon systems are exported or sold to allies.
Don't want to comment on this too much due to spoilers, but what I will say is that one and four are more or less correct. Aircraft in particular is going to become pretty important going into Phase Three as the Great War becomes almost completely mechanized and dependent on building weapons that require less manpower and kill more enemy forces.
Brazil is riding high, comparatively speaking, which makes me think there's going to be a brutal fall before the Great War is finished. Their decision to throw in with the Entente suddenly makes a bit more sense; now that they've been instrumental in the battle of the Atlantic and reclamation of northern Britain, they are now the most powerful nation in the Entente by a substantial margin, and what was once an alliance of liberal-ish Western European imperial powers has become a sphere of influence for an authoritarian South American republic. In other words, it seems that Brazil realized that the Entente was the weakest of the existing power blocs and aligned with them not in spite of that fact but because of it, as Brazil gambled that they would be strong enough to tip the balance in favor of the Entente and (having not already thrown away a few million of their own men in Phase I) would thus be in a commanding position to shape the postwar outcome as the most powerful surviving member. It'll be fascinating to see what a strong Brazilian influence will have on their new clients, in particular how conceptions of Lusotropicalism and pluricontinentalism might interact and interfere with British (and remaining French) African imperial occupations.
Brazil basically lucked out with how the Great War turned out for them. A good comparison for the current relationship with the Entente is that of the US with western Europe following WWII. The Entente is effectively dependent on the Brazilians to keep their colonial regimes intact and the Brazilian government is more than happy to assume this responsibility, given that, as you pointed out, Brazil is now not only poised as the most powerful member of the Entente but a commanding force across the world through its newfound sphere of influence.
I have to say I had a soft spot for the Workers' Commonwealth and it's a little sad to see them truncated so, but they seem to have gotten the best deal they could have given the situation. I don't believe for a moment that the 20-year truce will last, I'd bet that Phase IV settles the British Question one way or the other after one side manufactures a casus belli and blows up the armistice. Like a lot of other countries, they're absolutely scraping the bottom when it comes to manpower, I would think that Phase III (at least outside of the German-Soviet theater) will be something of a breather and shift to lower-intensity (probably colonial) fronts for enough time for the major belligerent countries to build up enough (now both male and female) bodies to hurl into the pit in a last devastating paroxysm in Phase IV.
I'm a bit of a sucker of the Workers' Commonwealth too, hence why I left a rump state around. The original plan was for the Loyalists to retake all of Great Britain, however, while developing the WC it became one of my favorite governments ITTL to develop and I went with the partition of Britain scenario instead. My hope is that the division of Great Britain will make things pretty interesting going forward, especially as North Britain succumbs Mosley's weird vision for Great Britain and the Windsor realms as a whole.
Speaking of that German-Soviet theater, holy shit it just keeps going. The Fascists have pulled a blood-soaked rabbit out of a hat with the reduction of Berlin, and with the head now broken from the Soviet spear they've bought sufficient breathing room to regain some measure of strength and lunge eastwards again. Poor Poland, they've been washed over how many times now? I wouldn't be surprised if there are more Polish-speakers in the United States than Poland proper by the time the war is through. The shift from the war of ideology to the war of resources is more than a bit chilling, carrying as I read it the implication of an even more brutal total war in the East to the absolute end, war to the knife on three thousand miles of front. It also makes me think that colonial theaters are about to get a lot more important, especially for the Heilsreich, as they attempt to compete with the massive potential of Soviet natural resources and industry. This may also imply something of an Entente-Fascist rapproachment, as the Entente have the resources and no love for the Soviets (having signed their respective armistices with the Western socialists only), so we may see yet another swing in alliances to put the Soviets on the back foot once again, potentially with Japan asserting themselves in the East and the United States spiralling down into chaos on its own front during Phase III.
Wouldn't be an insane three decade-long WWI if the Eastern Front wasn't a seemingly internal mess, would it? And yeah, Poland's already a complete mess. I'd love to eventually do a short story ITTL of a Soviet officer stopping in Poland before heading out west to the Eastern Front and depicting the nation as a borderline post-apocalyptic landscape. Both it and Belgium in particular have had a very nasty last fifteen years. Your assessment of the Eastern Front basically being a gruesome fight to the bitter end at this point is pretty accurate, and the Western Front isn't all that much different either.
Thinking above about Phase III and speculating how it may be a switch to lower-intensity conflict out of exhaustion and necessity, the absolutely vicious fighting in and around Berlin made me think that perhaps certain theaters of Phase III/IV might take on the character of a non-nuclear broken-backed war (if any of you have played Twilight: 2000, think that sort of conflict), with each side continuing to fight with existing stockpiles even after their economic bases and higher-level command and control have been destroyed by aerial bombardment, gas attack, or other means. Intensity might rise and fall cyclically as local or distributed manufacturing and production capabilities are recaptured (again, probably in poor beleaguered Poland) but without either side being able to rebuild its transportation, standardized production, or distribution networks to enough of a degree to make use of them. At that stage you wouldn't see much difference between the loosely affiliated 'national' armies of the Heilsreich or Soviets and bandits or warlords, as all would have to live off the land to the highest possible degree, while prosecuting the war to the utter end. Others in this thread have doubtless compared the Great War to the Thirty Years' War, and such a scenario would be a bloodily faithful reenactment of its later years, just with rifles, tanks, and airplanes.
Hmm... interesting theory. I'll admit that I haven't developed the exact specifics of the very end of the war just yet, but I do like the concept of the war basically becoming a borderline post-apocalyptic fight between warlords.
Anyway, excellent work as always,
@ETGalaxy, as you can tell I've had a blast reading this and thinking about it. I'll admit I can't say I'd be super interested in a physical copy of the work
at this stage in time, simply because it's unfinished, but I'd definitely be down for it if the numbers work out once it's a concluded story.
Thank you! And good advice with the physical copy, I really appreciate feedback.