A Different Fifth Party System
I got the idea for this back when there were a few threads speculating the alternate scenario "Conservative FDR is beaten by progressive Herbert Hoover in 1932" leading to left-wing Republicans and right-wing Democrats. The footnotes ended up being way longer than expected, but don't be fooled into thinking it's too serious.
It's just meant to be a normal, likely implausible list with the butterfly effect largely ignored.
1917-1918 Justice Charles Evan Hughes / Fmr. V.P. Charles Fairbanks (Republican)
def 1916 Pres. Woodrow Wilson / V.P. Thomas R. Marshall (Democratic)
1918-1921 Pres. Charles Evan Hughes / vacant (Republican)
Considering that Wilson only came to power because of the Taft-Roosevelt division, the only thing considered truly surprising about the Election of 1916 is how narrow Hughes’s margin of victory was. A progressive, albeit one far more moderate than his predecessor, President Hughes made some domestic reforms, but he is mostly remembered as the man who got America into the Great War. While he led the country to victory in the war, winning the peace was an entirely different matter. Not even the great Theodore Roosevelt, present during the drafting of the Peace of Versailles, could find a solution that could please every country or, more importantly, every voter. As the American people become increasingly disillusioned, it seemed as if President Hughes had singlehanded brought down the era of Republican dominance that had lasted since the Civil War.
1921-1923 Fmr. Pres. Woodrow Wilson / Sen. Oscar Underwood (Democratic)
def 1920 Pres. Charles Evan Hughes / Sen. Warren J. Harding (Republican)
At the beginning of 1920, it was in doubt whether Hughes would even win renomination from his own party. Former President Theodore Roosevelt, who served as Secretary of State during the beginning of the administration, had grown dissatisfied with Hughes as he had with William Taft eight years ago, and rumors grew of a potential repeat of 1912. However, Roosevelt’s health problems forced him to withdraw consideration from the race, leaving Wisconsin Senator Robert La Follette as the president’s main opposition. While the firebrand progressive’s isolationism had popular appeal, he had no chance of currying favor with a majority of the delegates, allowing Hughes to sweep the convention. Meanwhile, Former President Woodrow Wilson, the man who tried to keep America out of war, was the most obvious candidate for the Democrats. Several others names were put forward, including a possible fourth candidacy by William Jennings Bryan, but Wilson practically won the nomination as soon as he announced his intention to run. Due to the possibility of Wilson, rumored to be in failing health, dying in office, the vice presidential nomination was more competitive than usual, ultimately going to Alabama Senator Oscar Underwood. In the general election, Wilson emerged triumphant, but his second term proved rather lackluster. The country’s conservative mood forced him to cut back on his progressive policies, and his only real successes were in expanding on Hughes’s internationalist efforts. Ultimately, rumors about the president’s health proved true; he suffered a stroke in late 1922 that left him largely unable to fulfill his duties until his death early in 1923.
1923-1925 V.P. Oscar Underwood / vacant (Democratic)
1925-1929 Pres. Oscar Underwood / Sec. Newton D. Baker (Democratic)
def 1924 Gen. Leonard Wood / Rep. Theodore E. Burton (Republican)
Upon Wilson’s death, Oscar Underwood become America’s first Southern president since Andrew Johnson and the first ever from the Deep South. Some of his actions, namely his large-scale opposition to the Ku Klux Klan, were shaped in some party by efforts to subvert negative associations from this. Additionally, his opposition to prohibition and ill-fated efforts to end it, or at least scale it down, were controversial during his presidency, but this was largely overshadowed by the economic growth of the Booming Twenties. The 1924 Presidential Election gave the president a chance to gain a mandate from the people. Major General Leonard Wood, leader of the American Expeditionary Forces during the war and ally of the late Theodore Roosevelt, was the frontrunner from the start and finish of the Republican Convention despite facing opposition from both conservatives and progressives. Underwood, meanwhile, considered a number of candidates to be his vice president. After William Gibbs McAdoo, Wilson’s son-in-law, turned down the offer, he narrowed it down to two members of the late president’s administration: Franklin D. Roosevelt and Newton D. Baker, ultimately settling on the latter. General Wood fought a hard campaign, but he was running against a popular incumbent in a time when the Republicans were still seen as the party of the war; in the end, the greatest achievement he could claim was losing in a smaller-than-expected landslide. Underwood now has a mixed reputation among historians. While he is still admired among conservatives and Democrats, many blame his administration’s economic policies for ultimately causing the Panic of 1929. Nonetheless, he served his second term and left office a popular man. Some even tried to convince him to serve a third term – or, rather, a second elected term – but Underwood declined possibility due to failing health, for he would not even live long enough into his post-presidency to see the aforementioned panic.
1929-1933 Sen. Franklin D. Roosevelt / Fmr. Sec. Richmond P. Hobson (Democratic)
def 1928 Sen. William Squire Kenyon / Sen. Channing Cox (Republican)
Few American presidents have such a negative reputation as Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Emerging a dark horse in the 1928 Democratic Convention, he bested better-known candidates such as William Gibbs McAdoo and Cordell Hull, and, perhaps in response to President Underwood’s wet stance on prohibition, the convention chose Former Secretary of the Navy Richmond P. Hobson, a hero of the Spanish-American War and a dedicated social reformer and prohibitionist, as his running mate. This affair was nothing compared to the chaos of the Republican Convention, where conservatives battled with a so-called “Progressive Cabal” led by the likes of William Borah, Hiram Johnson, and George Norris, who had become dominant in the movement after the death of La Follette. A compromise candidate was found in Iowa Senator William Squire Kenyon, who had both conservative and progressive tendencies, with Massachusetts’s moderate reformer Channing Cox as his running mate. The election resulted in a decisive win for Roosevelt, albeit one narrower than 1924, but this turned out to be more of a blessing than a curse. A stock market crash in 1929 ushered the worst depression that the country had ever seen. While the administration took efforts to improve the economy and provide economic relief, it was too little too late. Additionally, the media increasingly portrayed the president as privileged and out-of-touch with the average American suffering from the Depression. Revelations of an extramarital affair, which would lead to Roosevelt’s divorce soon after election, only further embarrassed the president preceding the election.
1933-1941 Herbert Hoover / Sen. Frederick Steiwer (Republican)
def 1932 Pres. Franklin D. Roosevelt / Sen. George White (Democratic) and Fmr. Rep. Upton Sinclair / Mayor Daniel Hoan (Socialist)
def 1936 Sen. J. Hamilton Lewis / Fmr. V.P. Richmond P. Hobson (Democratic) and Henry Ford / Gov. William Langer (Independent)
Despite his widespread unpopularity, FDR’s political maneuvering stopped him from facing any real threats for renomination, and many in the party did believe that Roosevelt’s policies would lead the road to recovery. However, the president did make a mistake in stopping the renomination of Vice President Hobson, with whom he had feuded with on a number of issues, such as the handling of the depression and, less famously, the president’s efforts to scale back prohibition. Abandoning Hobson, still a relatively popular figure, for the unknown George White, mainly chosen for coming from the key state of Ohio, only soured public perception towards President Roosevelt. Still, while he knew his chances of winning reelection were slim, he hoped that vigorous campaigning and, with some luck, a contentious Republican Convention, could spell the way to victory. However, while the Republican field was initially divided, they soon united behind moderate progressive businessman and humanitarian Herbert Hoover. While Hoover had not made headlines since his work providing relief to Europe following the Great War, but he had been politically active over the past decade, and his rags-to-riches background contrasted with Roosevelt’s out-of-touch playboy image. 1932 also saw one of the best performances for the Socialist Party, which nominated a relatively moderate ticket of Upton Sinclair and Daniel Hoan to feed off public discontent with the two major candidates, particularly traditionally Democratic union workers disillusioned with Roosevelt but reluctant to vote Republican. It was often joked that, between Sinclair’s brief tenure in the House and Hoan’s long service as Mayor of Milwaukee, that the two had more experience in public office than the Hoover/Steiwer ticket. Victory, as expected, would go to Hoover, who began the long and arduous work of rebuilding the nation’s economy. He was initially reluctant to expand on what he saw as Roosevelt’s government overreach, but left-wing voices in his cabinet, along with the dire nature of the situation, convinced him to implement large-scale government programs to fight the depression. While the original of the term is disputed, these programs came to be known as “the Reconstruction” (or, to differentiate it from the post-Civil War Era, the “New Reconstruction” or “Hoover’s Reconstruction”); while it was not particularly well-fitting, the name stuck.
It is now remembered as one of the greatest presidential achievements of the twentieth century, but the Reconstruction was controversial during its time, facing criticism from both the right and left. The issue led to a heavily contested Democratic Convention in 1936. After a long series of ballots – including one where the delegates nearly nominated populist West Virginia Senator Rush Holt as a compromise candidate before he personally came to inform them that he was not yet of eligible age – the convention selected experienced Illinois Senator James Hamilton Lewis, despite him being over seventy years of age, and nominated the now sixty-five-year-old Richmond P. Hobson as his running mate. This so-called “geriatric ticket” seemed to be an admission that the party had little chance at besting Hoover, and their chances were made even worse when a conservative group, seeing both tickets as too willing to embrace socialist policies, drafted businessman Henry Ford for the presidency. Ford graciously accepted and, after a long search for a running mate, settled on the somewhat controversial Republican Governor of North Dakota, William Langer. The colorful race resulted in another unsurprising win for Hoover, who continued with his Reconstruction. However, his second term saw the beginning of a new threat abroad: tensions between Trotsky’s Soviet Union, along with its communist allies, and the rest of Europe had finally sparked the so-called “Red War.” President Hoover made it clear that America’s sympathies were on the side of the anticommunists, but refused to intervene directly. This reflected the concerns of a large number of Americans who did not want to get embroiled in another European conflict, along with some who were concerned by the totalitarian and reactionary regimes within the Allied forces. However, tales of horrors perpetrated by the Soviets increasingly turned public opinion in favor of intervention. As the issue of American involvement in the war divided the nation and the future of Hoover’s Reconstruction was put in jeopardy, some urged the president to run for a third term, but he, on no uncertain grounds, refused, leaving the field open in 1940.
1941-1945 Charles Lindbergh / Gov. A. Harry Moore (Democratic)
def 1940 Sen. Gerald Nye / Gov. George Aiken (Republican)
def 1944 Sen. Arthur Vandenberg / Fmr. Gov. Arthur James (Republican)
1940 Republican Convention largely coalesced around three candidates: the progressive Governor of New York Fiorello La Guardia, the moderate Vice President Frederick Steiwer, and the conservative Hamilton Fish III. La Guardia gained an unexpectedly large plurality, but many delegates were extremely reluctant to support him. A highly left-wing Italian-American Catholic, he had little appeal to the traditional Republican coalition, and likely only joined the party due to Tammany Hall’s influence over the New York Democratic Party. Some anti-war delegates suggested noted war hero and isolationist Smedley Butler as a potential candidate, but he declined. He instead announced his preference for La Guardia, but suggested progressive isolationist Gerald Nye as a possible compromise candidate. With La Guardia’s eventual support, Nye, promising to avoid the mistakes of Hughes, won the nomination. George Aiken, the moderate Governor of Vermont, was chosen to balance out Nye’s Midwestern fervor. Meanwhile, the Democrats coalesced behind an unlikely candidate: renowned Great War aviator Charles Lindbergh, who had made a name for himself by calling for immediate American entry in the war to stop the Red Menace. Winning the nomination with the help of prominent party officials such as Joseph P. Kennedy and running with experienced New Jersey Governor Arthur Harry Moore, Lindbergh made this the centerpiece of his campaign and accused Nye of being a communist sympathizer. On economic issues, he sent a mixed message, promising to keep the most popular elements of Hoover’s Reconstruction programs while still being friendly to business interests. With two controversial candidates running – an isolationist and a war-monger, an alleged communist and an alleged totalitarian, both with anti-Semitic tendencies – the “other” vote was particularly high in 1940, though no particular third party candidate stands out. However, with public opinion increasingly turning in favor of interventionism and against the incumbent Republican administration’s perceived inability to bring a definite end to the depression, circumstances came to favor the young and charismatic Lindbergh over Nye. Coming to office with a mandate from the people, one of the thirty-nine-year-old’s first actions as president was to ask Congress to declare war against the Soviet Union and communist Germany, to which it complied, bringing America into the Red War – in his speech, he declared “this is not a simple war between empires… but a battle for the survival of civilization,” a sentiment held at the time by a majority of Americans.
As the crackdown of communists began abroad, so it did at home. The Second Red Scare had started during the Hoover Administration, slightly before the start of the war, but under the Lindbergh government, it was granted legitimacy by the federal government. A wide range of allegedly communist organizations were banned, including the Socialist Party, despite it having thoroughly denounced Soviet communism and expelling its sympathizers from its ranks. Domestic unrest, such as the Milwaukee Riots, were dealt with harshly, but on other issues, Lindbergh was inconsistent. Having no government experience, he relied heavily on his advisers, who competed for influence. The end result was an almost corporatist model wherein the government heavily involved itself in the war economy while still being beneficial to big business. All of these efforts would have been controversial if it was not for the fact that he was winning the war. By 1940, an Allied victory was largely inevitable, but propaganda depicted the anticommunist forces as being on the brink of defeat against Comintern if not for American intervention. Thus, when Lindbergh’s entry into the war accelerated the pace of victory, he was treated as a hero. By the time he faced reelection in 1944, the war was practically over and the Soviet Union had collapsed to internal tensions. The Republicans nominated the anticommunist and pro-war Arthur Vandenberg to help rehabilitate their image, lightly criticizing the Lindbergh Administration for its civil liberties violations and overtly amicable attitude towards Allied totalitarian regimes, but never served as much of a threat towards the incumbent. However, the president’s second term did not last long; while negotiating with the other Allied leaders at Cologne in 1945, he was assassinated by a German communist. A hero at the time of his death, he has evolved into a controversial Jackson-like figure in the modern era. Most academics now denounce him as an incompetent and easily-influenced leader, while his racism and romantic fascination with authoritarian regimes in Europe are far less acceptable to the modern public than it was during his time. Indeed, it may have been the best for his own legacy to die a hero rather than facing the same challenges as his successor.
1945-1949 V.P. A. Harry Moore / vacant (Democratic)
Arthur Harry Moore was never meant to be president. Chosen for his age, experience, and moderate political stances, it seemed far more likely that Moore would die in office than Lindbergh. The president even seriously considered removing him from the ticket in 1944. Nonetheless, circumstances thrusted Moore into the presidency at sixty-eight years of age. With the depression no longer a factor, on the verge of victory in the Red War, and with the one of the highest recorded approval ratings on any president, the Moore Administration had great potential. However, he found himself wildly out of his element and unable to promise anything other than a vague continuation of Lindbergh’s policies and leadership. The eventual treaty ending the Red War attempted to avoid the problems of Versailles, but postwar instability still ravaged Europe. Völkisch forces took over Germany soon after its first elections, while civil war still reigned in the former Soviet Union, though a stable democratic government would eventually come from the ashes. Moore also agreed to the creation of a League of Nations, which had been suggested after the Great War as an internationalist confederation to guarantee peace, but only came into existence at the time in the form of several limited intergovernmental organizations. On domestic policy, Moore is the last Democratic president that could be called a liberal, but even that is in dispute among historians. Whatever the case, the failure to win the peace and disappointment of the postwar economy put the president in a difficult position in 1948.
1949-1954 Gen. Theodore Roosevelt III / Sen. Robert A. Taft (Republican)
def 1948 Pres. A. Harry Moore / Fmr. Amb. Alvin York (Democratic)
def 1952 Fmr. Sec. Joe Kennedy Sr. / Sen. Scott W. Lucas (Democratic)
1954-1957 Pres. Theodore Roosevelt III / vacant (Republican)
The septuagenarian Moore was running for reelection despite his low approval ratings. He faced some challenges in the Convention, but as long as Secretary of State Joe Kennedy, a key figure from the Lindbergh Administration and highly influential member of the party, remained on Moore’s side, the president did not face a serious threat. To keep the “Lindbergh flare” alive, he selected Great War hero Alvin York as his running mate. The former army sergeant was a staunch Democrat who was involved in politics in his home state of Tennessee after the war, but, despite urging, never sought higher office, though he did serve in a few largely ceremonial posts in the Lindbergh Administration. Convinced that it was for the good of the party, York accepted the nomination. Meanwhile, the Republicans had united around a formidable candidate in the form of Theodore Roosevelt III, first son of the Former President and a statesman in his own right, who returned from the Red War with the rank of general and status as a war hero. Robert A. Taft – a relative conservative in the party, but one who had grown into a moderate during the Hoover Era, and, more notably, the son of Former President William Howard Taft – was selected to be his running mate. While some thought that the ticket conveyed nepotism, party leaders believed that it showed unity between the factions of the party, and that it was a good balance regardless of the candidates’ parentage. Roosevelt, unsurprisingly, would go on to best Moore in the general election. Governing during what was largely a time of growth and stability, the Roosevelt Administration was able to pass a number of reforms desired by the newly-empowered left wing of Republican Party, expanding Hoover’s Reconstruction into the modern American welfare state. Additionally, he saw the expansion of the League of Nations and retraction of civil liberties restrictions placed under the Lindbergh and Moore Administrations. In 1952, he faced reelection against Democratic Party boss Joe Kennedy, who became the first Catholic nominated by a major party. Hoping to associate himself with the best of the Lindbergh Administration, Kennedy attacked the Roosevelt Administration for wasteful spending and overregulation, but these attacks were predictably ineffective. Vice President Taft died early in Roosevelt’s second term raising concerns about the president’s own health and prompting an eventual Constitutional Amendment clarifying the line of succession and allowing for a vice presidential vacancy to be filled. The third President Roosevelt has ultimately been well-remembered, even if it was rather uneventful.
1957-1961 Gov. George N. Craig / Sen. Prescott Bush (Republican)
def 1956 Gov. Robert B. Meyner / Sen. Howard Buffett (Democratic)
The Republican race to succeed Roosevelt was eventually won by the reformist Governor of Indiana, George Craig, who chose Senator Prescott Bush, a moderate liberal and former Wall Street executive, to keep the appearance of a pro-business stance. Meanwhile, the Democrats, having learned from their mistake in 1952, selected a fresh face: moderate New Jersey Governor Robert Meyner. Equally interesting was his choice of a running mate: conservative Republican-turn-Democratic Nebraska Senator Howard Buffett. It was hoped that Buffett could appeal to the conservative Midwesterners increasingly out-of-place in the new GOP. Additionally, the two men were known for their integrity, in contrast to the scandals that Craig and Bush had endured in the past. The young and charismatic Meyner became one of the first presidential candidates to utilize the growing power of television and led for a time in polls, but ultimately could not compete with the continuation of stability promised by the Republican Party. At first, Craig’s presidency saw the continuation of this stability, but soon the economic growth began to slow and the president’s increased involvement in the Japanese Civil War was largely unpopular. His reelection campaign in 1960 was set to be highly competitive.
1961-0000 Fmr. Gov. Albert “Happy” Chandler / Sen. Joe Kennedy Jr. (Democratic)
def 1960 Pres. George N. Craig / V.P. Prescott Bush (Republican)
While Meyner hoped to face Craig in a rematch, the nomination eventually went to Former Kentucky Governor Happy Chandler, a leader of the conservative faction and moderate Southerner. He reluctantly chose Joe Kennedy Jr., son of the 1952 nominee, as his running mate; first the gain the support of the Kennedy machine, but also hoping to appease Meyner supporters with a Northeasterner and revive some of that Lindbergh charm with the former Red War aviator. In the hard-fought election, Chandler’s attacks on big government and excessive internationalism were similar to those made by Kennedy in 1952, but after twelve years of Republican rule, they resonated far more with the American people. Additionally, his subtle criticism of the administration’s policy of racial integration (which he would, ironically, end up expanding under his presidency) helped him achieve record margins among Southern voters. Chandler perhaps most notably helped define the Democratic Party for the next decades. Hoover, Roosevelt, and Craig had settled the Republican Party’s place as a social liberal party, supportive of the welfare state while still avoiding “anti-business” aspects of social democracy. Meanwhile, it the Democrats lacked such a force, having only the nonideological Lindbergh to rally behind. Chandler solidified their place a fiscal conservative, small-government party while still keeping some populist tendencies, ushering in the Fifth Party system in earnest.