The POD here is that the Ottoman Empire decides not to join World War one. While the Ottoman Empire had a de facto alliance with Germany, but with the resentment against Germany’s other allies, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria, is more present. The allied powers have more resources as they don’t have to fight the Ottomans. A day after Mehmed V died, Germany had surrendered.
Mehmed VI is remembered as the sultan who, along with the three Pashas, reformed the title of Grand Vizier. In 1919, Ismail Enver Pasha was appointed Grand Vizier. The Committee of Union and Progress amended the Constitution to have the Grand Vizier be elected by the Ottoman People, to make the title of Grand Vizier be like the Ottoman version of a “prime minister”.
Rampant electoral fraud had kept the CUP in power for over a decade. With Germany being weakened, the Ottoman Empire had no real power to ally itself to. The CUP had idealized Japan, and had wanted to copy its model. An alliance between the Ottoman Empire and Japan was formed in 1925, and had lasted until 1928, when Japan, under a new prime minister, decided that the alliance was unnecessary.
On October 29th, 1929, the Stock market crashed, causing the Great Depression. While the Ottoman Empire did not receive the effects that the US had, growth nonetheless had stopped. The Freedom and Accord party, who had been the main opposition to the CUP since the 1910s, saw this as the opportunity to finally win. Despite the best efforts of CUP goons, the Freedom and Accord party won, by a majority of just two seats.
In 1932 the Ottoman Empire’s main ally in the Arabian peninsula, Jabal Shammar, was fighting a war with the Saud tribe, which had emerged pretty strong. Ottoman intervention led to the Saud tribe being defeated, and the Emirate of Jabal Shammar being the dominant Arab country (for the time)
While the CUP lost, they were still strong. It had ties to the military, and with it, the opportunity to commit a coup. On May 19th, 1933, the coup was carried out. Bolukbasi, like Nazim Pasha before him, was shot by members of the CUP. Ismail Enver Pasha was made Grand Vizier once more, and the first thing he did was ban the Freedom and Accord Party.
The coup was condemned by the League of Nations, and it further isolated the Ottomans. To add insult to injury, the KPD won the German elections. The CUP was extremely anti-communist, and as such refused to ally with the Germans. Not like Germany wanted an alliance.
But now without Germany, what do the Ottomans have? It is not like the UK or France would ally them. The Ottomans sent diplomats to Rome in hopes of an alliance, and Ismail Enver Pasha met with Roberto Farinacci one time. However, any possibility of an alliance was shot down after the June 23rd incident. While Italy was invading Albania, some Italian troops accidentally attacked the Ottoman embassy in Tirana. Diplomatic missions stopped a possible war, but relations between the two were shaken.
The June 23rd incident started the Ottoman period of Isolation. With no allies, or enemies, the Ottomans had no reason to intervene in global affairs. Even during the Second Grand war between the UK, France, the US and Italy against the “Red Alliance” of Germany, the USSR and Spain (a tired old concept, I know) the Ottomans refused to help out either side, even though the government sympathized with the UK and it’s allies.
1944 is known as the year of three sultans. When Abdulmecid II died on July 2nd, 1944, the succession went to his first cousin once removed, Mehmed VI’s son, Mehmed. Mehmed VII, however, died on August 23rd. Mehmed VII never had any sons, and as such the title of sultan went to Abdulmecid II’s son, Omer[1].
By 1949 Enver Pasha’s mental health was deteriorating, and as such the military began to gain power in the government, with Enver Pasha being a figurehead.
In the meantime, the ideology of Arab nationalism had been growing, with nationalists winning local races. Armenian nationalism had also been growing in Armenian majority areas of the empire. The cause of Armenian nationalism was strengthened after the independence of Armenia following the Second Grand War.
On September 15th, 1954, Enver Pasha had finally died. While they were candidates for the title of Grand Vizier, none of them pleased the military. Because of this, the military decided to seize power. The seizure of power caused turmoil in the Ottoman empire. Arab and Armenian nationalists saw the coup as their time to strike and began to rebel. Liberal Turks also rebelled against the government. It was hard for the Ottoman government to keep order, and as such the destruction of the empire was seen as inevitable.
To add insult to injury, Greece, using reports of Ottoman mistreatment of the Greek population, declared war on the Ottoman Empire. By March of 1955, the Ottoman army was nonexistent. Omer I abdicated the throne and fled to Berlin. Erdelhun shot himself.
The Arab nationalists eventually formed the Kingdom of Arabia, making Hussein Hashemite the king. The Kurdish areas of the Ottomans not under the Kingdom of Arabia had also declared independence. Armenia annexed the places Armenian nationalists had controlled.
The liberal elements of the army under Cemal Gursel abolished the Ottoman Empire and formed the Federal Republic of Turkey. They then focused their efforts on fighting the Greeks. Eventually on September 18th a peace treaty was signed, in where Greece would take parts of the Catalca peninsula, but not take Constantinople.
1909-1918: Mehmed V (Osmanoglu)
1918-1926: Mehmed VI (Osmanoglu)
1926-1944: Abdulmecid II (Osmanoglu)
1944: Mehmed VII (Osmanoglu)
1944-1955: Omer I (Osmanoglu)
Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire.
Grand Viziers of the Ottoman Empire
1920-1931: Ismail Enver Pasha (Committee of Union and Progress)
1920: Damat Ferid Pasha (Freedom and Accord)
1923: Riza Tevfik Bolukbasi (Freedom and Accord)
1927: Riza Tevfik Bolukbasi (Freedom and Accord)
1931-1933: Riza Tevfik Bolukbasi (Freedom and Accord)
1931: Ismail Enver Pasha (Committee of Union and Progress)
1933-1954: Ismail Enver Pasha (Committee of Union and Progress)
1937: Unopposed
1942: Unopposed
1947: Unopposed
1952: Unopposed
1954-1955: Rüştü Erdelhun (Military)
Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire
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[1]-The reversal of death dates was intentional
I have another Ottoman list, which is very implausible, though it was never meant to be realistic. It is set on the same universe as
this. If enough people are interested I may post it.