Guys this isn't a TL about the 1988 election this is a TL about a collapse of Mexico in the late 20th century. @Roberto El Rey just tell us how the election goes so we can be done with this discussion.
This is for 1996, but the US Marine Corps Summary of Mexico, linked here has a lot of stuff you might find useful for your TL
1996 breakdown on Page 298 is 130,000 in Army, 8,000 in Air Force, 37,000 in Navy (inc. Marines) for 175,000 total. Army is 70,000 regulars, 60,000 conscripts. Supposedly they have 300,000 Reserves, but this is a Manpower pool and there is no info on training status, probably untrained and certainly not mobilizeable on short notice. Using the ratio of 1.9 Soldiers per 1000 people, that Mexico had been fairly constant in keeping since the 70's, extrapolating same ratio Army/Navy/AF, ~116,000, ~33,000, ~7,000
Eyeballing it, would say they could get 20,000 men in overnight, maybe. Moving troops takes time, if they had a plan and rehearsed it they could get rather more troops into the capital, but not sure if they did that
You'd be amazed what sort of contingency plans exist, the US has plans to deal with an uprising by the Girl Scouts. So the Mexican Army having a plan to rush a bunch of troops into Ciudad Mexico is not surprising, it's them practicing it that would beThanks, this is a great help! I'll change the number accordingly: say 18,500 troops to start, but over the following couple of weeks, reservists will be called up and more troops will be mobilized to occupy the capital. I've assumed that there are no special contingency plans for occupying an entire city (there's no particular reason for them to exist, because in the twenty years between they never had to occupy an entire city for extended amounts of time) which contributes heavily to the lack of discipline and coordination among the soldiers and officers.
Could you share your source for that tidbit too? Unless it's in the document you already linked, of course.Also just found out ~40% of the Mexican military is based near Ciudad Mexico, so having 40,000 troops show up overnight is not impossible. Given how the Reserves are mentioned as a manpower pool rather than extant formations, it might be more than a few weeks to get mobilized
Well, I don't want to reveal that publicly quite yet, but if anyone doesn't want to wait a week or two to hear about the results of the 1988 election, they can just PM me and I'll happily tell them how it goes.Guys this isn't a TL about the 1988 election this is a TL about a collapse of Mexico in the late 20th century. @Roberto El Rey just tell us how the election goes so we can be done with this discussion.
That was just Wikipedia page for the Mexican ArmyCould you share your source for that tidbit too? Unless it's in the document you already linked, of course.
As for the contingency plans, that does make some sense, but even if there are specific plans they probably wouldn't be quite as helpful in a situation that doesn't involve taking positions against a defined enemy. During the Mexico City earthquake of 1985, the soldiers that were called into affected areas were reasonably organized (if a bit kleptocratically-minded) but that was only for controlling a few neighborhoods. Even the best laid plans would have trouble creating an orderly occupation of an entire huge city. (Keep in mind that this intense reaction to Cárdenas's speech was not expected by the federal government, and the mobilization was done in such a rush that many divisions simply weren't given specific contingency plans.
Right, when I said a plan wouldn’t help much that’s what I had in mind.That was just Wikipedia page for the Mexican Army
These sorts of plans are not really about combat per se, more how do we move so many people and so many tons of supplies in so many vehicles from here to there and in what order, in the least amount of time without causing traffics. It would not necessarily help once they got to Mexico city, but it would help in getting them there. Actually helping them occupy the city would require plans and actual training in occupation duty.
Oh, I'll change that. Thanks!Also Mexico does not operate divisional sized forces, they have Brigades and Corps and skip the Division level in terms of ground forces organization
I am wondering if this would mean more refugees to Canada if the US is gonna be not nice about this
They'll have a hell of a way to get there, that's for sure.
Well, they can always leave by planes and overstay via Visas
I’m so happy to have piqued your intrigue! I’ve gained a huge admiration for Mexican culture and history while researching for this timeline, and I hope to honor that history with the struggle I’m about to portray. The next update should be up tonight with luck.
I'm so incredibly glad you feel this way, and the more people with links to Mexico and its culture I impress with this TL, the more satisfying it will be to write, and the more vindicated I'll feel about the research I've put into it. While I am happy to say that I don't think Cárdenas is underused in alternate history (at least for a non-Anglosphere politician), I also feel like there isn't enough interesting stuff done with this period of Mexican history. Mexico's transition to democracy could have been thrown off course by so many little coin flips—like Donaldo's assassination, the success of the campaign finance reforms of 1997, and of course, Cárdenas's speech in the Zócalo. I was actually inspired to write this TL by the Krauze quote I cited in Part 2, and I'm surprised no one's tried this scenario on here before.
You know, when I saw the election results last year and saw how pitiful the PRI did, I laughed. Would have laughed harder if AMLO wasn't an idiot with the capacity to do more harm than good. The PRI, in the end, got overthrown and their attempt to remain relevant has been given the response of becoming a minor irrelevant party. Here's looking to an earlier and harsher end to the PRI in TTL. It couldn't happen to a nicer party....okay there were worse parties out there but the PRI still grinds my gears possibly even more than the GOP here in the US.They may even ask what would have happened had Celeste Batel never even been assassinated in the first place...
Oh, you have no idea (yet)!
Mexico city is massive (either largest or second largest city in the americas) and so are its facilities.What happened to Cardenas? I assume he was arrested after his speech?
Second, was the university that big? 260,000 students?
Would have laughed harder if AMLO wasn't an idiot with the capacity to do more harm than good.
Latinoamerican populist is just an american whistle for politicians that *gasp* take desitions independently of the embassy! Is like this southern dogs think they are sovereign nations or something!A Latin American populist doing more harm than good?! Pfffftttttt. You're speaking rubbish.
Latinoamerican populist is just an american whistle for politicians that *gasp* take desitions independently of the embassy! Is like this southern dogs think they are sovereign nations or something!
Ummmm …. nope.
Bolsonaro counts as a Latin American populist btw. Don't think he's part of the list you had in mind.
Look at Juan Peron in Argentina, Castro in Cuba and Chavez and Maduro in Venezuela (plus what I predict for Bolsonaro in Brazil and AMLO in Mexico). Not good results. Also, look at Trump and Salvini in the western world, or Duterte in the Philippines. Not good. Populism does not have the best track record.