Are you trying to get this thread booted to chat-realm? Drop the current politics.this is dangerously close to "antifa are fascists" territory
Oh and,
>being this offended by the statement "reprisal killings are bad"
Are you trying to get this thread booted to chat-realm? Drop the current politics.this is dangerously close to "antifa are fascists" territory
so...Uh...
I'm not talking about antifa. I never once talked about antifa. I don't know why you're bringing up antifa.
I'm talking about ACTUAL revolutionary terror throughout history.
Whether it was the guillotine, the Soviets executing the Romanov children, Robert Mugabe demolishing an entire slum and scorning the poor people he once fought for, or Maduro sending thugs into Carcas while enjoying luxury steak, violent revolutions often lead to violent regimes.
If I distrust antifa, it is because I distrust those who change society through armed force because their heroic struggle often becomes terror.
so...
you believe that it is only right and moral that the ruling class has a monopoly on violence?
this is, quite frankly, idealist.
life is too complicated to make peace with those who want you dead.Uh...
I'm just gonna say that life is way too complicated for such simple declarative statements and leave it at that.
September 15, 2000
Mexico City
Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas had been here before, though it had been a long time.
Had it really been twelve years? No, it couldn’t have been. He remembered it all so clearly—the scorching heat, the oppressive, late-summer sun, the grief crushing him like a mountain of granite. But most of all, he remembered the rage. The blinding, convulsing, spasm-inducing, all-consuming rage. His own rage—at being cheated out of power, at his wife’s murder—but also the people’s rage. Rage at being cheated, at being lied to, and being taken for fools. The rage of a people that had been abused, robbed, and deceived year after year, decade after decade, by the same pack of criminals. The bloodlust of a battered dog that growls silently at its master and dreams of one day turning around, baring its teeth and tearing flesh from bone.
Cuauhtémoc had felt that rage. He had seen it in their eyes. He had known its power. It had disturbed him, and he had taken to the stage to calm it down. But he had lost control of himself. He had let his rage consume him. For a single moment, this satanic, volatile rage had found in him its earthly instrument. Instead of calming his supporters’ lust for revenge, he had told them to unleash fountains of blood—fountains of blood—from the necks of their enemies. For a single moment, he had held his nation’s future in his hands, and with a single speech, he had set it aflame.
Everything that had happened in Mexico since then—the autumn of terrors, the recession, the killing of Salinas, the fascistic hell of the Bartlett years—all of it could be traced back to that speech. For years, Cuauhtémoc had blamed himself for all of the death and bloodshed. Why hadn’t he been more careful with his words? Why hadn’t he had urged caution, restraint, and nonviolence, like he had planned to do?
Day after day, year after year, as he watched his country slide down the path of damnation, the guilt had paralyzed him. Time and time again he had felt the urge to get back into politics, to be a leader, but every time he had resisted. When asked, he’d said he was still struggling with the grief, which was true. But really, he’d resisted because he feared the damage he might cause if he were ever given any kind of power again. What if he lost control? What if another speech went wrong? What if…
Celeste.
Twelve years later, she was still there. Every time he blinked, for half a second, there she was, her eyes gazing lovingly into his. Time had dulled and buried the pain, but had not erased it, and being up here on this stage so many years later sharpened its edges. He closed his eyes for a moment to appreciate her beauty. If he had urged caution and restraint, maybe things would have been quieter that day. But would he have done right by her memory to let her killers off that easy?
Suddenly he snapped back to reality. He remembered where he was: at a public ceremony to initiate him into the very office for which Celeste had been killed. He felt the presence of the TV cameras, the gentle breeze, the vast sea of supporters standing before him. To take his mind off Celeste, he started scanning the faces of the people around him.
To his left was Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, standing at the podium and delivering the last speech of his presidency in his rich, thundering baritone. He’d been a good president. Actually, he’d been a great president, the kind of President they wrote legends about. Cuauhtémoc couldn’t help but feel the tiniest twinge of jealousy. Hadn’t he been the one who was going to lay the foundation for liberty and democracy? Hadn’t he been the one who was destined to ride in on a white stallion and save Mexico from itself?
He sighed. Well, yes, perhaps. But could he really have done it? As Mayor, he’d watched Porfirio work his fingers to the bone trying to change the system, and that was after the PRI had degenerated into a burning pile of excrement. Things had been bad in 1988, but that was nothing compared to the nightmare of the Bartlett years. To take on el sistema back then, when it still had most of its strength? It wouldn’t have been suicidal, but he’d have had his work cut out for him.
He shifted his gaze. There was Sergio Aguayo, the Tlatoani, the unlikely hero of tomorrow. Soft-spoken and serene with wire-rimmed spectacles and elephant ears, the man looked more like a librarian than a politician. But, as Cuauhtémoc had learned, behind those wire rims there burned a fire, a passion for justice as hard and immutable as a block of Spanish marble. Every time he and Sergio shared a conversation, Cuauhtémoc left the room struck dumb by awe and admiration; he could only hope that he would never have to confront the Tlatoani in his presidential capacity.
He shifted his gaze again. There was Henry Cisneros. Cuauhtémoc looked forward to working with the U.S. President, having met him a couple of times as Mayor and found him to be endlessly affable and respectful. Of course, there was a chance that he wouldn’t be around much longer—every poll put him ahead of Governor Wilson by at least ten percentage points, but if Cuauhtémoc knew anything about American politics, it was that you never knew what was going to happen next week, let alone next year. But he wasn’t worried. In any case, as President of the new Mexico, the most he would ever have to do was shake hands and look good at a state dinner, so it really didn't matter all that much to him who occupied the Oval Office.
He looked away from the distinguished guests and out into the crowd. It truly was an ocean of humanity, filling every inch of space from the Portal de Mercaderes to the Palacio Nacional and spilling out into the streets. He scanned the surface, pausing to gaze at the children hoisted up on their parents’ shoulders, the Kodaks and Canons raised up high to get a better shot, the signs held aloft with sweet slogans of love and support. He looked into hundreds of thousands of faces, half-expecting to see balled fists, clenched jaws, eyes full of spite, signs of that same blood-soaked, hateful rage. But he didn’t. The hands he could see were clasped in grateful prayer. The jaws were relaxed, some lips even drawn back into smiles. And the eyes he saw were filled not with hate but with hope—an anxious, longing, insecure hope, but a hope nonetheless. Hope that after years and years of pain, of anguish, of lies, of fear and broken promises, something good had finally come. Silent in his seat, Cuauhtémoc wondered to himself how many of them had been here with him all those years ago, and whether they were pleased with what they saw today.
Cuauhtémoc suddenly sensed that it was time for him to get up. Looking over, he saw Porfirio winding up his speech and tuned in just in time to catch the last few words: “…the citizen President of the United Mexican States, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas Solorzano!”
Cuauhtémoc rose from his seat, the applause so loud he could feel it rattling the soles of his shoes. He shook Porfirio’s hand, feeling a slight chill as his predecessor removed the presidential sash and draped it over his shoulder.
He turned to the podium. On it was an attractive piece of stationery with the oath of office printed in neat, richly-ornamented font. Aside from a few tweaks, it was the same oath every president had taken since Madero—there had been some talk during the Convention of replacing it entirely, but the words were pretty enough on their own, even if they had rarely been respected.
Cuauhtémoc waited for the applause to die down, then raised his right arm and began:
“I hereby swear to honor the Millennial Constitution of the United Mexican States and the laws emanating thereof, and to ensure that they are honored.”
He stared into the crowd in fear that the hope, that beautiful hope of theirs, might already be fading away. But he found no such sign. With every word, the eyes seemed to widen and the smiles seemed to grow.
“…I swear to loyally and patriotically carry out the responsibilities conferred upon me by the people, thinking at all times of the good and the prosperity of the Union.”
Suddenly he saw Celeste one last time. But this time, she was different. This time, she wasn’t simply loving. She was imploring. Her eyes were filled with longing, a deep longing that seemed to ask, “was my sacrifice worth it? Did your speech really change things for the better?”
Cuauhtémoc paused his oath for a moment and looked out one last time at the mass of humanity. He noticed a small child hovering above the crowd on her mother’s shoulders, just a few meters away from the stage. She was too young to understand what was happening or why she was watching it. But by the youthful wonder in her eyes, Cuauhtémoc could tell she knew that whatever it was, it was important, and it was good.
He blinked to force back a tear and there was Celeste, still staring back at him expectantly. Still silent, he answered her question: I don’t know yet. I don't know yet if it was worth it or not. But I’m going to fight like hell for the rest of my life to make sure it is, and I won’t be fighting alone.
He smiled. Celeste smiled back and then, for one, last time, she faded away.
He looked back down at the page, opened his mouth and finished the oath.
“…And if I were not to carry out these duties with honor and solemnity, may the Nation and all of its children demand it of me.”
And so be it.
THE END
September 15, 2000
Mexico City
-snip-
The 1992 explosion wasn't so much butterflied away so much as delayed by a bit—they would have happened not long after the Salamanca refinery explosion if not for the investigation. It's a little counterintuitive in terms of the timing of the story, especially because with the lack of oversight or STPRM, you'd expect the explosion to happen earlier rather than later. But this is one instance where I had to deploy a little bit of handwavium in order to make things fit in terms of the timeline. Let's just say that by dumb luck, there is a near-disaster at the refinery sometime in 1990 that scares management enough to fix the immediate problem and avoid getting blown up, which delays the big explosion for a couple of years.When you say that the OTL 1992 Guadalajara explosions were butterflied away ITTL, I know it means that it didn't happen.
However, what's your in-universe explanation for it?
Based on what I could find, the pipes were built too close to a gasoline pipeline before the P.O.D. and were poorly designed, including the addition of an inverted siphon that prevented volatile gases from being disposed of properly. Unless someone (like maybe Xanic von Bertrab) notices it and is taken seriously by the authorities (not very likely), the OTL explosions seem to be inevitable due to incompetency.
By around 1992, the Frente is essentially extinct ITTL. Even though many frentistas end up being members of ED, there isn't really a continuous link between the two parties.I love your choice of the political parties. However, it would probably make more sense if the ED was the successor of the Frente Democrático Nacional than as a derivative of the PAN, since the FDN and TTL's ED resemble similar political ideology.
Didn't get around to mentioning it in the update, but John Paul II visits in 1996 to great fanfare.When will we see the Pope visit Mexico?
I don't have an extremely detailed paper, but I based that on this section from p. 356 of Opening Mexico: the Making of a Democracy by Julia Preston and Sam Dillon:Hey @Roberto El Rey, I have a question about something I read in this timeline. You wrote that the Mexican Congress did not have any protocol in regards to a PRI loss? Could you point me to sources about that specifically? Because it sounds like a really fascinating procedural issue, especially due to the PRI's similarity with Golkar, the ruling party in my own home country for much of the same period as in this TL.
You're making me blush!I've caught up on TTL and I've got to say it's amazing. I don't know anything about Mexican history but TTL made me want to do research on the country, specifically PRI, the PRD, PAN, and the political history. I'm glad TTL was written just for making me want to and actively research Mexican history which is probably the best thing IMO an alternate history can do, make you want to learn about history that you never would.
Otherwise you took an obscure POD and used it to craft a world, just eight years out has made the world radically different outside of Mexico with President Cisneros and the Progressive Conservatives winning in '92. Not to mention Bush winning in '92 also. That's a great thing to see in any TL and combined with frankly great writing makes this a great read. In addition to that I can tell you did a lot of research and know what you're writing about despite me not knowing much on Mexican history. It was also great how you portrayed the first Salinas. I thought his actions would lead to the revolution but I was wrong. In fact Salinas in comparison to Salinas the second and Bartlett was the man who could've prevented the revolution ITTL. His assassination was shocking to read as things looked like they were getting better despite the authoritarian grasp of PRI. The Selva Rebellion felt like a great payoff ITTL story wise. Finally the Zapata election was masterfully written IMO. You first made what looked like blatant rigging and a massive win for PRI with no resistance to the election a powerful moment that was genius. Revolutionaries infiltrating a party and going along with the criminal rule only to take control and use the rigging against them was an excellent twist that I wasn't expecting. Henry Cisneros was a great choice for president within the context of the TL and seems plausible.
Overall it was a very creative TL and I want to do learn more about Mexican history thanks to TTL. Considering it borders the USA it seems important and fascinating. I applaud you for the masterful writing of TTL and amazing POD. A very fine TL.
Much as I would love to say that everything is perfect from here on out, I think it'll be more satisfying to make things realistically imperfect and flawed, but still inspiring and a clear improvement on what came before.This is really a fantastic piece of work - the whole process here is realistically kludgey and marred by underhandedness without being too grimdark or cynical.
It's 100 3-member districts. ED wins 3 seats in 33 districts, 2 seats in 36 districts, 1 seat in 18 districts in 0 seats in 15 districts. It also wins 53% of the party-list vote, bringing its total up to 295. Thank you for your detailed analysis!With 100 3 member districts, we see that in the large majority of them, ED wins two of the three seats; the rest of the STV election is a scramble among the other three parties and independents for the final seat. There might be a fair number of districts where ED won all three seats, which frees up some districts where ED only wins 1, or in rare cases, no seats whatsoever, in these rare bastions PAN might win a second seat, but clearly if they won only one at most, in 3/4 of all districts, they win nothing at all. DC manages a single seat in just 1/5 of all the districts (or even fewer.
Not an epilogue per se, but I will be posting some additional information, including leaders' lists, on my test thread. Keep an eye on there for more updates in the near future. I actually just posted a list of Mexican presidents up through 2021!Do you think to make an epilogue explaining things after Cárdenas’ election (as Huntsman and Castaneda presidencies)?