Al Grito de Guerra: the Second Mexican Revolution

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Allochronian

Allochronian

Roberto El Rey said:
The 1992 explosion wasn't so much butterflied away so much as delayed by a bit—they would have happened not long after the Salamanca refinery explosion if not for the investigation. It's a little counterintuitive in terms of the timing of the story, especially because with the lack of oversight or STPRM, you'd expect the explosion to happen earlier rather than later. But this is one instance where I had to deploy a little bit of handwavium in order to make things fit in terms of the timeline. Let's just say that by dumb luck, there is a near-disaster at the refinery sometime in 1990 that scares management enough to fix the immediate problem and avoid getting blown up, which delays the big explosion for a couple of years.
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Hmm...

I think it might be less convoluted to allow the OTL 1992 Guadalajara explosions to occur and have the same consequences play out (but worse under Bartlett's presidency), instead of creating plausible 1995 Salamanca explosions.

Without the official report on the OTL explosions, I can't really make an accurate prediction on how they could have been prevented.

If I had to make a decent guess while strictly following your choice of historical events, then I'd stick with the idea that ITTL, Xanic von Bertrab is somehow able to prevent the 1992 explosions, but there is never an official commission (if there ever was, I don't know) that may have allowed the government to investigate other sewer systems and prevent other explosions. This lack of prevention may have allowed the Salamanca disaster to occur in a reasonable, plausible manner.

Just my opinion.

Roberto El Rey said:
Didn't get around to mentioning it in the update, but John Paul II visits in 1996 to great fanfare.
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Yay!

Interesting... according to his itinerary in real life, he traveled to nine different countries that year. Nearly half of it was in Latin America.

Since I assumed that you wouldn't mention it several days ago, I used my head-canon and assumed that his 1999 Visit to Mexico would still happen but the context would be slightly different. Instead of his fourth visit to Mexico, it would be his second since 1979 and there would be a stronger emphasis on the "millennial" aspect and on Mexico's bright future.

Roberto El Rey said:
Not an epilogue per se, but I will be posting some additional information, including leaders' lists, on my test thread. Keep an eye on there for more updates in the near future. I actually just posted a list of Mexican presidents up through 2021!
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Nice!

(Miguel de La Madrid and Jorge Carpizo MacGregor died in 2012)

I find it curious that the elections are usually won by either the ED or the PAN.

You may have mentioned it before, but how does the PAN ITTL differ from OTL?

As an extra question, what did you decide on the fates of Fox, Calderón, and Peña Nieto after 1994?
 
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Roberto El Rey

Roberto El Rey

Allochronian said:
(Miguel de La Madrid and Jorge Carpizo MacGregor died in 2012)
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The hernia which IOTL forced Carpizo MacGregor into the operating room where he died of complications is butterflied away.
Allochronian said:
I find it curious that the elections are usually won by either the ED or the PAN.
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Yes, it's still a two-party dominant system in the sense that the coalitions are dominated by either of the two big ones, but the plethora of smaller parties has made things interestingly hairy.
Allochronian said:
You may have mentioned it before, but how does the PAN ITTL differ from OTL?
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It's more centrist and has less of a base of support in the rural areas, which tend to go for ED or the PDC. Its electoral base is located in the suburbs and the wealthier parts of some major cities. With the splitting off of its religiously conservative wing (PDC) and its hardline libertarian wing (Liberal), the PAN of TTL 2021 actually resembles the CDU much more than a typical Latin American, doctrinaire, right-leaning party.
Allochronian said:
As an extra question, what did you decide on the fates of Fox, Calderón, and Peña Nieto after 1994?
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Clollette Rosas said:
What ever happened to Colosio?
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Haven't thought about it—I'll get back to you on that.
 
Acknowledgments
  • Index
    • Roberto El Rey

    Roberto El Rey

    Having finally concluded my story, I would like to say a few thank yous.

    First and foremost, thank you to Julia Preston and Sam Dillon, authors of Opening Mexico: the Making of a Democracy. Without that book, this timeline would not exist. It got me interested in Mexico in the first place, it gave me the idea for the Point of Divergence, it shone a spotlight on multiple important figures of whom I would otherwise have been ignorant, and it provided invaluable insight into the power structures which I explored over the course of the story. Time and time again and for guidance and inspiration, analyzing key sentences and paragraphs with the same care and attention as one would an old copy of the King James.

    I would also like to express my gratitude to the authors of the other various sources I consulted. Without their research and findings, I would never have been able to make this story as detailed as I did. Neil Harvey, author of Rebellion in Chiapas and The Chiapas Rebellion: the Struggle for Land and Democracy, and Henry C. Schmidt, "The Mexican Foreign Debt in the Transition from López Portillo to de la Madrid", stand out particularly, but all of the cited sources contributed in a meaningful way.

    Thank you also to the Mexican people I interviewed over the course of my research: Antonia, David, Oriel, each of you added a human element that otherwise would have been absent from the story.

    Thank you to the unfortunately-banned @Md139115, who helped convinced me over PM to continue this story after I received some particularly harsh feedback on my initial first posting.

    Thank you to @RamscoopRaider, who helped me make the military aspects of this timeline grounded and believable.

    Thank you to @Yes, who provided valuable insights into the character of Henry Cisneros.

    Thank you to my family and friends, who provided endless emotional support (despite their complete lack of interest in Mexican history) and created a warm personal environment conducive to creativity.

    Thank you to @Allochronian, whose excellent opening graphic is still my favorite thing anyone's made based off one of my projects.

    And lastly, thank you to the members of this community. Without your support and attention, I wouldn't have had the energy or the inclination to finish this timeline. Your thought-provoking questions and comments have validated my efforts and helped me refine the story into a more readable, digestible form. Without this site, I would never have gotten into alternate history, and for that I will be eternally grateful.

    If I overlooked anyone, I am sorry—in all likelihood I will realize it soon and edit this post to reflect it. It has been a true blessing to finish a timeline on this site and I couldn't have done it without the support of my friends, family and peers.
     
  • Index
    • Selected World Leaders, 1988—2021
  • Index
    • Roberto El Rey

    Roberto El Rey

    Presidents of Mexico

    1982—1988: Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado (PRI)
    1982 def. Pablo Emilio Madero (PAN)
    1988—1989: Carlos Salinas de Gortari (PRI) †
    1988 def. Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas (FDN), Manuel Clouthier (PAN)
    1989—1990: Raúl Salinas de Gortari (PRI)
    1989 def. Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas (FDN), Manuel Clouthier (PAN)
    1990—1994: Manuel Bartlett Díaz (PRI) †
    1990 def. Luis H. Álvarez (PAN)
    1994: Carlos Hank González (PRI)
    1994—2000: Porfirio Muñoz Ledo (Independent)
    1994 def. Elba Esther Gordillo (PRI)
    2000—2006: Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas (Democratic Hope)
    2000 def. Francisco Barrio Terrazas (PAN), Diego Fernández de Cevallos (Christian Democratic), Jorge Hank Rhon (PRI)
    2006—2009: Rosario Robles (Democratic Hope)*
    2006 def. Ernesto Ruffo Appel (PAN), José Ángel Pérez Hernández (Christian Democratic), Miguel Alemán Velasco (PRI)
    2009—2012: Fernando Elizondo Barragán (PAN)
    2010 (with Christian Democratic support) def. Adolfo Aguilar Zínser (Democratic Hope), Carlos Monsiváis (People’s Alternative), Jorge Carrillo Olea (El Nuevo PRI)
    2012—2018: Jorge Carpizo MacGregor (PAN)
    2012 (with Christian Democratic support) def. Ricardo Andrés Pascoe (Democratic Hope), Armando Manzanero (Tehuantin), Enrique Dussel (People’s Alternative), Homero Aridjis (Green), Manlio Fabio Beltrones (El Nuevo PRI)
    2018—0000: Jorge Castañeda (Democratic Hope)
    2018 (with Christian Democratic, Tehuantin, People’s Alternative, and Green support) def. Manuel Clouthier Carrillo (PAN), Gustavo Cárdenas Gutiérrez (Christian Democratic), Eduardo Verástegui (El Nuevo PRI), María de Jesús Patricio Martínez (Tehuantin), Delfina Gómez Álvarez (Popular Alternative), Denise Dresser (Green), Francisco Javier Combaluzier (Liberal)

    * — Resigned from office
    † — Died in office
    Italics — Interim president



    Tlatoque of Mexico

    2000—2006: Sergio Aguayo (Democratic Hope)
    2000 def. Carlos Medina Plascencia (PAN), Gamaliel Ramírez (Christian Democratic), Manuel Muñoz Rocha (PRI)
    2003 def. Carlos Medina Plascencia (PAN), Diego Fernández de Cevallos (Christian Democratic), Manuel Muñoz Rocha (PRI)
    2006—2008: Imanol Ordorika (Democratic Hope)
    2006 def. Santiago Creel (PAN), Diego Fernández de Cevallos (Christian Democratic), José Antonio Zorrilla Pérez (PRI)
    2008—2012: Santiago Creel (PAN)
    2009 (coalition with Christian Democratic) def. Félix Salgado Macedonio (Democratic Hope), Diego Fernández de Cevallos (Christian Democratic), Imanol Ordorika (Popular Alternative), Arturo Montiel (El Nuevo PRI)
    2012—2015: Juan Molinar Horcasitas (PAN) †
    2012 (coalition with Christian Democratic) def. Félix Salgado Macedonio (Democratic Hope), Ruben Mendoza Ayala (Christian Democratic), María de Jesús Patricio Martínez (Tehuantin), Rosario Ibarra (Popular Alternative), Claudia Ruiz Massieu Salinas (El Nuevo PRI)
    2015 (Coalition) def. Marcelo Ebrard (Democratic Hope), Ruben Mendoza Ayala (Christian Democratic), María de Jesús Patricio Martínez (Tehuantin), Roberto Campa Cifrián (Liberal), Alberto Anaya (Popular Alternative), Isidro Baldenegro López (Green), Claudia Ruiz Massieu Salinas (El Nuevo PRI)
    2015—2018: Manuel Clouthier Carrillo (PAN)
    2018—0000:     Julia Quiñónez (Democratic Hope)
    2018 (Coalition) def. Antonio Lozano Gracia (PAN), Manuel Espino Barrientos (Christian Democratic), Lupita Vasquez (Tehuantin), Alberto Anaya (People’s Alternative), Ninfa Salinas Sada (Liberal), Samir Flores (Green), Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez (El Nuevo PRI)
    2021 (Coalition) def. Margarita Zavala (PAN), Lupita Vasquez (Tehuantin), Citlalli Hernández Mora (People’s Alternative), Manuel Espino Barrientos (Christian Democratic), Samir Flores (Green), Ninfa Salinas Sada (Liberal), Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez (El Nuevo PRI)

    † — Died in office



    Cuauhtlatoque of Mexico

    2000—2006: Adolfo Aguilar Zínser (Democratic Hope)
    2000 def. Luis H. Álvarez (PAN), Carlos María Abascal (Christian Democratic), Francisco Labastida Ochoa (PRI)
    2003 def. Fernando Elizondo Barragán (PAN), Carlos María Abascal (Christian Democratic), Francisco Labastida Ochoa (PRI)
    2006—2009: Fernando Elizondo Barragán (PAN) *
    2006 (Coalition with Christian Democratic) def. Samuel del Villar (Democratic Hope), Carlos María Abascal (Christian Democratic), Rogelio Gasca Neri (PRI)
    2009 (Coalition with Christian Democratic) def. José Ortiz Pinchetti (Democratic Hope), Carlos María Abascal (Christian Democratic), Heinz Dieterich (Popular Alternative), Rogelio Gasca Neri (El Nuevo PRI)
    2009—2018: Ernesto Ruffo Appel (PAN)
    2012 (Coalition with Christian Democratic) def. José Ortiz Pinchetti (Democratic Hope), Alberto Cárdenas Jiménez (Christian Democratic), Heinz Dieterich (Popular Alternative), Francisco Luna Kan (Tehuantin), Eugenio Hernández Flores (El Nuevo PRI)
    2015 (Coalition with Christian Democratic and Liberal) def. Ricardo Monreal (Democratic Hope), Alberto Cárdenas Jiménez (Christian Democratic), Heinz Dieterich (Popular Alternative), Eugenio Hernández Flores (El Nuevo PRI),     Jaime Rodríguez Calderón (Liberal)
    2018—0000: Ricardo Monreal (Democratic Hope)
    2018 (Coalition) def. Felipe Calderón (PAN), Jorge Ocejo Moreno (Christian Democratic), Reginaldo Sandoval Flores (People’s Alternative), Jaime Rodríguez Calderón (Liberal), María de Jesús Patricio Martínez (Tehuantin), Toño Castañón (El Nuevo PRI), Isidro Baldenegro López (Green)
    2021 (Coalition) def. Felipe Calderón (PAN), Jorge Ocejo Moreno (Christian Democratic), Isidro Baldenegro López (Green), María de Jesús Patricio Martínez (Tehuantin), Reginaldo Sandoval Flores (People’s Alternative), Jaime Rodríguez Calderón (Liberal), Alfredo del Mazo Maza (El Nuevo PRI)

    *— Resigned to assume the presidency



    Presidents of the United States

    1981—1989: Ronald Reagan (Republican)
    1980 (with George Bush) def. Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (Democratic)
    1984 (with George Bush) def. Walter Mondale/Geraldine Ferraro (Democratic)
    1989—1997: George Bush (Republican)
    1988 (with Dan Quayle) def. Michael Dukakis/Lloyd Bentsen (Democratic)
    1992 (with Dan Quayle) def. Paul Tsongas/Bob Kerrey (Democratic), Ralph Nader/Wilson Goode (Independent)
    1997—2005: Henry Cisneros (Democratic)
    1996 (with Dick Gephardt) def. Bob Dole/Bill Bennett (Republican)
    2000 (with Dick Gephardt) def. Pete Wilson/Christine Todd Whitman (Republican)
    2005—2009: Dick Gephardt (Democratic)
    2004 (with Carol Moseley Braun) def. Jeb Bush/Rick Perry (Republican)
    2009—2017: Jon Huntsman (Republican)
    2008 (with Woody Jenkins) def. Dick Gephardt/Carol Moseley Braun (Democratic)
    2012 (with Woody Jenkins) def. Jim Webb/Russ Feingold (Democratic), Zephyr Teachout/Ameya Pawar (Power to the People)
    2017—0000: Bill Halter (Democratic)
    2016 (with Sylvia Garcia) def. Meg Whitman/Rob Portman (Republican), Pete Coors/Alan Keyes (Taxpayers’)
    2020 (with Sylvia Garcia) def. Sean Duffy/Kristi Noem (Republican)



    Prime Ministers of Canada

    1984—1988: Brian Mulroney (Progressive Conservative)
    1984 def. John Turner (Liberal), Ed Broadbent (New Democratic)
    1988—1992: John Turner (Liberal)
    1988 (Coalition with NDP) def. Brian Mulroney (Progressive Conservative), Ed Broadbent (New Democratic)
    1992—2000: Marcel Masse (Progressive Conservative)
    1992 def. John Turner (Liberal), Bill Blaikie (New Democratic)
    1996 def. Paul Martin (Liberal), Bill Blaikie (New Democratic), Preston Manning (Reform)
    2000—2010: Brian Tobin (Liberal)
    2000 def. Marcel Masse (Progressive Conservative), Preston Manning (Reform), Lorne Nystrom (New Democratic)
    2003 def. Lorne Nystrom (New Democratic), Stephen Harper (Reform), Louis Plamondon (Progressive Conservative)
    2007 (Coalition with NDP) def. Stephen Harper (Reform), Adrian Dix (New Democratic), Pauline Marois (Rassemblement progressiste), Peter MacKay (National)
    2010—2015: Jean Charest (Liberal)
    2011 (Coalition with NDP) def. Ralph Klein (Reform), Adrian Dix (New Democratic), Peter MacKay (National), Pauline Marois (Rassemblement progressiste)
    2015—0000: Jim Dinning (United)
    2015 def. Jean Charest (Liberal), Adrian Dix (New Democratic), Joseph Facal (Rassemblement progressiste)
    2019 def. Sandra Pupatello (Liberal), Sarah Singh (New Democratic), Pierre Langlois (Rassemblement national)
     
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  • Index

    • Bookmark1995

    Banned
    Roberto El Rey said:
    ]
    2009—2017: Jon Huntsman (Republican)
    2008 (with Woody Jenkins) def. Dick Gephardt/Carol Moseley Braun (Democratic)
    2012 (with Woody Jenkins) def. Jim Webb/Russ Feingold (Democratic), Zephyr Teachout/Ameya Pawar (Power to the People)
    2017—0000: Bill Halter (Democratic)
    2016 (with Sylvia Garcia) def. Meg Whitman/Rob Portman (Republican), Pete Coors/Alan Keyes (Taxpayers’)
    2020 (with Sylvia Garcia) def. Sean Duffy/Kristi Noem (Republican)
    Click to expand...
    Why does Zephyr Teachout run a third-party campaign?

    And I read Bill Halter is an Arkansas Democrat? How do the Arkansas Democrats remain competitive well into the 2010s?
     
    A Very Special Announcement
  • Index
    • Roberto El Rey

    Roberto El Rey

    Hello, everyone! It's been quite a long time since anyone made a post on this thread, but I've decided to break the silence for what I consider to be a very good reason: Al Grito de Guerra: The Second Mexican Revolution has officially been published by Sea Lion Press! As of this past Sunday, it is available for purchase here on Amazon as an eBook, and I'm told that the paperback version should be out by early January.

    Al Grito de Guerra Cover.jpg

    Even if you've already read the timeline, you might still get a lot of enjoyment out of this new edition. I have essentially rewritten the entire thing from start to finish, and while the basic outline of the plot remains the same, the narrative sections have been expanded, refined and reorganized into an integral part of the text. Each chapter now contains one textbook-style segment followed by one narrative segment, told from the point of view of one of three main characters (Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, Manuel Bartlett, and Lydia Cacho) whose paths intertwine to tell the familiar story. The prose has also benefitted from three more years' worth of writing experience, and if I do say so myself, the finished product is much better written than the version that I posted here.

    I am beyond thrilled to have achieved my dream of becoming a published author. I'm thankful to the many, many people who helped me along the way (and have duly expressed this gratitude on the acknowledgements page), but I never could have seen this project through without the attention, feedback, and interest I received from those who followed the story while I was still developing it, and especially from @Allochronian, whose ideas inspired the cover art for the final edition. If you're still around to read this, thank you all from the bottom of my heart.
     
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