Narrative Ten: Revolution in the Countryside, At War With The Klan & A Soldier in the Desert
  • Revolution in the Countryside

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    Zhang Guotao, Jiaxing Communist Leader in Guangxi​

    Late Morning, 18th of March 1932
    Pohongzhen Village, Tianyang District, Guangxi, Southern China


    Guotao should not have returned to China. He was sure of it now. A memory of his apartment in Moscow, of studying the Bukharin and Trotsky dialectics at Moscow State University, brought a bitter burst of nostalgia (1).

    The smell of blood hung heavy in the air while groans were slowly cut off in response to the occasional gun shot.

    Here he was, stuck in a bug-infested overgrown ditch, hoping against hope that he could make his escape from this hellhole.

    They had come in the early morning, catching the village picket guard by surprise just before dawn, before a villager on his way to the outhouse raised the alarm. The taste of iron hanging in the air.

    Caught by surprise, the villagers had barely been able to put up resistance for two hours before they were overrun. The shrieks that followed would haunt him, as women and children were dragged from their shacks and the surviving men were herded together.

    The rifle stuck to his hands, the mud and sweat and blood seeming to seep into his skin. Flies buzzed about, some settling on the open wound in his shoulder. The crawling, itching, scratching raising the urgent need to do something, anything, to alleviate the irritation. But he couldn't. He wouldn't. He had to stay quiet, had to remain in place. He could not be discovered. Or he would be dead.

    It grew warmer as noon neared, and the insects more aggressive, eventually forcing Guotao to slowly roll over so that the wound was distanced from them. Even so, the feeling persisted, the heat and terror playing tricks on his mind.

    Before long, conscripted labourers began to remove the corpses, starting from within the village itself and slowly moving outward, the bodies dumped in a hastily dug mass grave. They came closer to Guotao's position, hour by hour, as sweat poured off his body from the stress of the situation. In the distance, the sound of shrieks and cries arose once more, only to be cut short by short, sharp cracks (2).

    Finally, as evening approached, the labourers came to a halt, the nearest one having come within three feet of Guotao's position. They returned to the village under guard, even as cooking fires were set by their fellows.

    His stomach grumbled quietly when the scent of dinner wafted over him. A good congee, if he had to guess - one with a few pieces of meat and greens in it to give some flavour.

    As dark fell and guards lit their picket posts, Guotao slowly levered himself up from where he had been stuck the entire day, fighting back a pained groan as stiff muscles were moved for the first time in what felt like an age.

    He spied about, taking note of where the guards were posted, while giving time for evening to turn to night. He took advantage of the wait to check his wound, painfully pulling crushed flies and dirt from the wound in utter silence, before he bandaged it with a dirty cloth.

    It was another three hours before he could make his escape, passing between the pickets and making for the nearby stream, leading southward towards safety.

    After an hour of silent, tense travel he finally breathed a sigh of relief.

    He had made it to safety, at least for now.

    Footnotes:
    (1) Much as IOTL, Zhang Guotao first came to prominence with the protests and riots over the Great War resolution, befriending Mao Zedong at the time and joining the Communist Party alongside him. As IOTL, he was dispatched to Russia to learn from the Communist regime there, and only returned around the turn of the decade, after the division into Jiaxing and Shanghai Communists had occurred, aligning with the former. He thereafter was dispatched to Guangxi and had been hard at work shoring up the movement in the rural south when the initial clashes with tax collectors occurred. In the months since that occurred, the situation has escalated, until this point.

    (2) While the enemy is ambiguous here, for Zhang Guotao does not know exactly who attacked them, it should be noted that these are forces mustered by various private actors, who have been given tax-farming rights by the Fengtian government (after the central government proved unable to set up a proper tax collection system in the south) and are bearing the brunt of the fighting with the Jiaxing Communists. Basically, the conflict in South China is between tax-farmers and the local governments they are backing and the Communists. As with so many other issues, the Fengtian government is very heavily northern-oriented, and while it has succeeded in extending its power south of the Yangtze - its authority is more theoretical than effective in provinces like Yunnan and western Guangxi.

    At War With The Klan

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    Black Guard Uniforms of the Ohio Klan​

    Evening, 9th of August 1932
    Environs of Lancaster, Ohio, United States of America


    Clyde Anderson Tolson had been a special agent with the Agency of Investigations and Law Enforcement for five years now, and at the age of thirty-two he had shot up the ranks to special agent-in-charge of the Ohio anti-Klan Taskforce (1).

    In his time with the AILE he had hunted down members of the Gustin Gang in Boston, gotten into a shootout with John Touhy of the Touhy Gang south of Chicago, participated in anti-corruption cases in New York and, most recently, found himself tied up in anti-Klan operations.

    It was exactly one such operation he was leading at the moment.

    It had started two weeks ago, when word had come in to the AILE anti-Klan Taskforce for Ohio of a recruitment abduction by a gang of black-hooded men. Two civilians gunned down trying to stop the Klan from abducting blond-haired and blue eyed 18-year old Alvin Smith.

    What had followed was several hundred man hours to boil down where the kidnappers had taken their victim. Interviews, interrogations and phone-taps, all done under constant public pressure. Eventually his men had identified a farm just outside of Lancaster, apparently one of their various training sites, as the location to which the young Alvin had been taken. The AILE had been finding training grounds like it all over the state for the last three years, and whenever one was taken out of commission another would pop up two towns over.

    Clyde looked about at his subordinates, some 30 men in all, as they emerged from the trucks which had brought them to within walking distance of the farm. Heavily armed, they shared hungry grins, the Ohio Task Force drew only the boldest and most reckless of the AILE, for no one else was willing to face the violence with which the Black Guard fought back.

    "Move out, the farm should be just over the ridge!" he called out, as he set off himself. The ground was soft and slightly muddy, turning to mush beneath his feet.

    They spread out, creating overlapping fields of fire, experience brought to the force by the numerous veterans who had joined the agency in recent years.

    Suddenly gunfire barked from the ridge-top, drawing a roar of rage from the agents as they charged forward, well aware that they needed to clear the ridge-line if they wanted to make it through the firefight to come. Clyde felt his heart pounding in his chest as he followed them.

    One of the men at the front of the line went down, Clyde spending just long enough to ensure that the armoured vest had taken the bullet before he rushed onward, his face twisted into a devilish mask of outrage. Gunfire erupted from the line of agents as their attackers came into view, drawing cries of fear from the defenders.

    It took another minute before the attackers had been swept off the ridge, two of them going down to the gunfire of the agents while another five were captured and placed under arrest, in return for the wounding of one of his men. Clyde's heart bled for the man, even as his attention shifted to the enemy, promising to repay the debt a dozen times over.

    From atop the ridge, Clyde could see the farm clearly, men in black robes rushing about as makeshift defensive positions were established.

    At a signal from Clyde, the agents began to lay down fire towards the farm, hitting at least half a dozen men before they could go to ground, while in the distance a cloud of dust marked the arrival of the other half of his force, come to cut off the Klansmen's route of retreat.

    Under his direction, a bullhorn was brought up and calls for surrender soon followed, even as the agents atop the ridge dug into their positions should the Klansmen attack, it wouldn't be the first time the madmen of the Blackguard stormed prepared defensive positions.

    Skirmishing continued through the night, potshots taken at hints of movement below while the perimeter was strengthened and further reinforcements arrived. During that time, more than a dozen men made their escape from the farm, seeking shelter with Clyde and his men on the promise of leniency.

    That leniency proved in short stock, and more than one of the escapees would require medical attention when they got around to it. Clyde ignored the matter, he had more important matters to attend to.

    The next morning, the quiet of dawn was broken by the arrival of two biplanes, from which grenades were dropped - one hit resulting in an enormous explosion as their arsenal went up in flames. Screams and shouts of outrage were soon competing with the roar of the inferno, raising a din below which the agents advanced.

    The perimeter shrunk rapidly as the confused defenders were arrested, if they surrendered, or shot. Clyde followed along behind, revolver in hand should he encounter any unrestrained hostile, but ultimately it proved unnecessary - his men having acted with extreme prejudice when clearing the farm.

    By noon of the following day, the operation had been wrapped up. Two dozen dead klansmen, another eighteen wounded, more than one hundred arrested and ten abducted trainees freed, Alvin Smith amongst them. Most importantly, they had succeeded in killing the local commander, Dayton Dean. He had lost three men, with another four wounded badly enough to need significant medical attention in the process. All in all, a successful operation (2).

    Footnotes:
    (1) This update will be following Clyde Anderson Tolson, most famous for being Hoover's closest aid and second in command, as well as his potential lover. ITTL, Tolson still enters into federal law enforcement after finishing his law degree, but does not connect with Hoover, the latter having been ejected from the Agency long before the application even came through. In contrast to OTL, Tolson makes it in on his first attempt (IOTL he failed in 1927 and was then admitted in 1928 after Hoover took an interest in him) due to the greater level of recruitment by the AILE, just as McAdoo is ramping up efforts against bootleggers.

    (2) So, yeah. Things have gone completely off the rails in Ohio. While the original task force was successful in curbing the Ohio Klan and ending it as a mainstream movement in the state, in the process they radicalised the Blackguard immensely, turning them from a gang engaged in street warfare with their opposites in the Indiana Klan into what amounts to a paramilitary terrorist organisation as interested in attacking the government and minorities as their Indiana Klan rivals. This has led to assassinations of government figures, bombings of US post offices and more in the years since the conflict escalated (it really went off its rails after Huey Long's Midwestern tour). Additionally, we have previously seen that the federal government has been willing to use quite significant force against its own population - as happened early in the 1920s in West Virginia. It is worth noting that Dayton Dean IOTL was the man who ended up betraying the details of how the Black Legion/Guard were run and led to the arrest of its leaders. With him dead, matters might take longer to resolve.

    A Soldier in the Desert

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    Orde Charles Wingate, Lieutenant Colonel of the 3rd Battalion of the King's African Rifles​

    Morning, 3rd of January 1933
    Al Qurnah Village, Northern Kuwait, Former Arabistan, British Empire


    Mesopotamia was far from Orde's first combat tour, despite having missed the horrors of the Great War. He had seen service in Ireland, combatting IRA rebels, skirmished with Egyptian-backed rebels in northern Sudan, hunted slate traders and ivory poachers on the Ethiopian border, and had commanded forces in the defeat of the Dervishes in Somalia, all before he and his men were dispatched for service in Kuwait and Arabistan (1).

    The first months of duty here had been utter hell, but Orde had never felt more alive, as he and his men fought off Arabistani raiders and drove back roving peasant bandits. When his commanders realised the talents of he and his men for asymmetric warfare - and Orde's own fluency in Arabic - he had found himself dispatched to Arabistan proper, where every man, woman or child could be an enemy combatant.

    It had been a bloody affair, particularly once the stragglers in the Indian Army and RAF arrived, but his men had served admirably throughout. If not for that bloody idiot, Barnard Reilly, going in half-cocked, Orde would have been in a position to catch Sheikh Khaz'al. Instead he and his men had been forced into a tense and bloody chase into the Zagros Mountains, with partisans appearing in every bloody village along the way.

    Now he was stuck here, in dusty Al Qurnah, staring across the border into Ottoman Mesopotamia instead of helping keep the peace further south as some sort of punishment for his failure to catch the Desert Rat.

    "Sir, dispatch from Headquarters!" came the call from one of his African orderlies, a man who had followed him from Sudan to Somalia and then on to Kenya. Tall, black and bald, he towered over the stick-thin locals, who scuttled out of his way with considerable haste.

    "Good, I will be there in a moment." He replied, tipping his hat forward to ward against the winter sun as he turned his back to the border, barely giving the saluting orderly a glance as he passed him. The dirt packed paths through the village filled with farmers' sons returning from their morning errands, their exclamations and shouts piercing the air.

    When he arrived back at the collection of huts which he and his men had made their temporary home, it was to a surprising hustle and bustle - men rushing about like termites erupting from an overturned mound.

    He felt a scowl emerging on his lips even as he crossed into battalion command, "Report!" he bit out, voice sharp and demanding.

    "This came in with the late-night courier, seems Whitehall called the Turks on their shit." came the reply from Ralph Alger Bagnold, his second in command and intelligence officer - a man with a square head, square mustache and square frame below a neatly combed head of brown hair (2).

    "Let me see."

    Orde took a seat and spent a couple minutes skimming through the report while the hastily awoken staff found their seats.

    Growling quietly to himself in frustration, he set the report on the table.

    "Well, looks like we are to have the honour of standing first in the line when the Turks come for us."

    A grim smile stretched across his face, "I hope you are all ready for a bit of excitement - you have been far too lazy the last couple months."

    The men shared unhappy smiles before turning back to their commander.

    "Alright, guess there is nothing to it. Bagnold, I want you to get in contact with Headquarters, make sure we have the latest news. I don't want the Turks catching us on the latrines when the time comes. Reynolds, Donald, I want you to get the men in shape for things to come and get them to work on basic defences, what we have now is a piss-poor joke of a trenchline, talk to Alvin if you need anything from supply."

    He continued on, a rapid string of commands emerging as each man was given his duties, as preparations came under way in case the Turks came across the border. He hated it, stuck here, unable to move his men about - doing what he did best, but he could hardly disobey orders now that they had arrived.

    Tasks delegated, Orde took the stairs up to the second floor, staring out across the small village and towards the Ottoman border.

    Not too far away he spotted the village, a jump, skip and hop across the border. Dirt hovels, not too different from those he and his men were protecting, with growing dark lines crisscrossing the grounds in front of the village proper. From this distance he could see men hard at work, sunlight glinting off of what he assumed were the Turks' conical helmets.

    His assumption was proven correct soon after, when he spotted an officer, his fez clearly visible at this distance, marching back and forth - probably barking orders at his men. He wondered how long it would be before they were shooting across that short distance.

    Footnotes:
    (1) Orde Wingate is honestly a pretty fascinating figure. He was aggressive and arrogant, often clashing with other officers, but was undoubtedly a talented commander with a gift for asymmetric warfare. It is worth noting that Orde has made even more of a career for himself that IOTL because of the more extended nature of the British combat requirements around the world. Most significantly, he spent his early military career in Ireland, aiding in the crushing of the Irish rebels. He then, as IOTL, followed his father's cousin's recommendation of securing a tour of duty in the Sudan. As IOTL, he first attended Arabic studies, scoring very well, before sending his bags ahead and then biked across Europe. He shipped out of Marseille instead of Genoa for Egypt and eventually arrived in Khartoum for service, receiving a posting with the Somali Defense Force. That is where he fought against slave traders, poachers and rebels, gradually shifting his approach from regular patrolling to ambushes and in the process learning to command asymmetric forces. He was then transferred to the King's African Rifles for service against the Dervishes and had, up until his posting to Mesopotamia, been with them - rising to the rank of Major during that time. His appointment to Lieutenant Colonel is provisional for the time being.

    (2) Ralph Alger Bagnold, follows at least some of his OTL post-war experiences and develops a similar interest in the desert as IOTL. However, his tour of service plays out somewhat differently from OTL and given the military situation the British Empire is in, he decides to remain in the army for the time being. Most significantly, he remains in Africa after his service in Cairo, first moving south to the Sudan, and then on to Somalia, where he meets up with Orde Wingate and the two bond over their interest in asymmetric warfare in arid conditions. As a result, he follows Orde south to Kenya, and was weighing whether to ask for a more exciting posting when the call came to redeploy to South Mesopotamia.

    End Note:

    I really hope you enjoy these narratives, they should help give a better idea of what is going on around the world- A lot of credit once again goes to @Ombra in this one for his willingness to give detailed feedback on how to improve the narrative segments. I look forward to seeing what people have to say to this one.

    As to what is to follow, the next trio of updates are:

    Update Thirty-One: The Turbulent Heart of Europe - Germany, France, Iberia and Sicily, Britain
    Update Thirty-Two: Balanced on the Edge - The Balkans and the Ottomans, The Two Rivers Crisis, Middle East, Indochina
    Update Thirty-Three: A Theory of Great Men - Soviet Republic, More Soviet Republic, Don Republic and Georgia, China and Japan

    We have some big events coming up and some of my favorite updates of any in the TL - particularly the last of these three is in my top 5 favorite updates for the whole TL, so look forward to it!
     
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    Update Thirty-One (Pt. 1): The Turbulent Heart of Europe
  • The Turbulent Heart of Europe

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    Friedrich Ebert, Minister-President of Prussia and Leader of the SPD

    A Political Consolidation​

    Germany entered into a transitionary period during the years between the elections of 1928 and 1932, experiencing major changes in attitude not only domestically, but in foreign affairs as well. The Fall of Siberia, while not as terror inducing to the Germans as would prove the case in other countries, still caused considerable worry and tore Germany from the happy, peaceful, recovery it had enjoyed almost uninterrupted since the end of the Great War. It highlighted the military capabilities of the Communist regime in Moscow, and brought to the attention of political and military thinkers in Germany the under-defended nature of Eastern Europe.

    The result was a reprioritisation of German efforts on the Zollverein as a potential vehicle for a more all-encompassing union of states which would allow the Germans to project not only economic and cultural, but also military and political, power eastward should the day come when the once friendly Muscovites turned hostile. This reprioritisation would become the great ambition and passion of former Chancellor Gustav Stresemann in these years, not only seeing him shepherd the signing of a commercial agreement regulating the conduct of German cartels in Zollverein nations, but also the signing of cultural exchange agreements, joint military exercises, unified visa regulations, the establishment of a neutral board of mediation for conflict resolution between members and, as Stresemann's crown jewel, the signing of a defensive military alliance between all members of the Zollverein in late 1933.

    The rapid deepening of the Zollverein relationship would come as a shock to many of the participatory powers and drew considerable criticism in many of the involved states, who saw the initiatives as little more than a thinly veiled attempt by the Germans to strengthen their grip on their national affairs - resulting in a strengthening and consolidation of anti-German sentiments across much of Eastern Europe into an active opposition.

    That is not to say that German ambitions were limited to the Zollverein, as German ambassadors deepened the Reich's relationship to the Nordic and Low Countries with the signing of cultural exchange agreements and strengthening of economic ties while expanding the pre-existing ties to the Ottoman Empire with the signing of a trade agreement lowering tariffs on consumer goods from Germany in exchange for better oil prices for German actors, the exchange of industrial expertise, the signing of a defensive military alliance in 1931 and a deepening of military ties with the exchange of military delegations. At the same time the German Foreign Ministry worked to improve relations to Bulgaria, with the two latter Central Powers remaining a distinct relationship from that with the Zollverein.

    In Africa, German efforts centered primarily on the increasingly troubled and divided state of Ethiopia, with the signing of several important diplomatic and trade agreements prior to a cooling of relations following the death of Ras Tafari Makonnen, and a growing investment in the political and economic development of Hashemite Arabia. However, it would be in Asia that Germany saw the greatest potential for the future. The emergence of the Fengtian government in China and the end of the Warlord Era would prove an immense boon for Germany, which had already enjoyed a good relationship with the Zhang family. German investors were deeply involved in the financing of Manchuria's industrial miracle and its arms industry soon found itself favored as well, with the leasing of arms production to China bringing immense wealth to some of Germany's greatest business cartels. This relationship was further strengthened by an exchange of military advisors and the establishment of university exchange programmes for Chinese students to study in Germany. In Japan, the Germans were also met with friendly, if more wary, greetings as the Yamamoto government sought to leverage German industrial expertise in the exploitation of Korea's natural resources as well as cooperation between the two states' militaries, with an exchange of advisors although the Japanese would continue to favor their British allies over the Teuton newcomers (1).

    The late 1920s and early 1930s were a time of considerable political upheaval, causing turmoil and division on the political wings while the center consolidated ever more firmly around itself in search of stability and safety. On the far left, the rise of Trotsky in Russia and the resultant convulsions this provoked in Russian, and by extension German, Communism caused division and anxiety as disagreements over ideology came to the fore. At the heart of this conflict lay the a clash between the incumbent leadership, led by Rosa Luxemburg, Karl Liebknecht and Paul Levi, and a group of young radicals enamored with Trotsky and his seemingly more masculine form of Communism, led by Ernst Thalmann, Walter Ulbricht and Hans Kippenberger. Gradually, as Trotsky's own star rose ever higher in Russia, this second group would push for a harder and harder line on the part of the KPD, pressing it to align more closely with the Trotskyites and demanding that the party take a more militant position to political affairs - the most prominent of which was Thalmann's belief that the KPD should reject participation in the biased and distorted German electoral system and press forward in the name of revolution (2).

    The creation of the Revolutionary Catholic Church in Italy was to have profoundly divisive consequences for the Catholics of the Reich. Introduced to Germany in the early 1930s by the prominent Tyrolian Alcide de Gaspari, a prominent voice of reason in Austrian Catholic circles and lately in German Catholic circles, who had a close relationship with Don Sturzo in the pre-war days, the concept of a Catholic Church denuded of inequalities, integralism and the increasingly unpopular Papacy, proved attractive to many left-wing Catholics. However, it was also to prove a cause for horror and outrage amongst those who saw the Revolutionary Church as a heretical outgrowth of the Sackers of Rome.

    The result was a further splintering of Centre, which had already lost a decent section of its right-wing to the KVP, and now saw a further divide between the left-wing and center of their party. After considerable back and forth, it was ultimately made party platform to reject the Revolutionary Catholic Church as heretical and support for it becoming grounds for expulsion from the party. Outraged, the left-wing, led by Gasperi and the leaders of the Centre Labour Unions Joseph Joos and Adam Stegerwald, left the party while declaring their support for the Revolutionary Catholic Church, bringing many of the union members and the left-wing of the party with them in their exodus, establishing the Christlich-Soziale Partei Deutchland (German Christian Social Party), often shorted to CSPD, in late 1931.

    Thus, while the Catholic population of Germany had expanded considerably with the Anschluss of the Kingdom of Austria, Catholics in the Empire had never been more divided and the Centre Party never weaker. The effective loss of both the party's left and right wings, while allowing the party to stabilize its ideological foundations, as supporting a liberal Catholicism without rejecting the Papal Catholic Church and a political orientation remarkably similar to their NLP and FVP government partners, resulted in an unmitigated disaster as regarded their political power (3).

    Finally, on the right, the NSDP began to fracture almost as soon as their failure to make major electoral gains in the 1928 elections became clear. Already constructed on a deeply divided base of support, drawing from both the far-left and far-right, there was only so much socialist rhetoric that men like Hermann Esser, Dietrich Eckart, Karl Haushofer, Julius Streicher and Adolph Hitler could take, and while Gregor Strasser was able to shepherd them into the election, the far-right figures in the party proved ever more hostile to the socialists in the party. Already in 1929 were there men calling for the expulsion of the socialists in the party as fundamentally un-German, as supporters of the Arch-Jew Trotsky's ideological disease, and these cries just kept growing louder. Otto Strasser did not respond to these threats in any particularly helpful way, ranting at what he viewed as a betrayal of his dream for Germany by small-minded pissants unable to muster a following of more than a couple hundred drunk Bavarians. Rather than enter a dialogue with his rebellious subordinates, Strasser instead pushed forward with forming the party in his own image - aided in the effort most significantly by Gustav Noske.

    Unresolved, these wounds in the party just kept growing deeper, resulting in the far-right faction increasingly looking for a new home for their political ambitions. At first they considered the DFP, but Richthofen and others in the party believed adding these toxic elements would sour the public perceptions of their party and distract from their ambitious belief in the importance of German Liberty above all, and next led the flighty far-right figures to look towards the DNVP - from which many of them had originally come. However, the loss of the DNVP's far-right had in some ways strengthened the mainstream party, removing its most odious elements and allowing them to consolidate their ideological footing, and as such when entreaties were first made by Dietrich Eckart he found himself rejected by his former party.

    Finally, in early 1932, the NSPD splintered in two, as the far-right faction determined that they would have to form their own party for the time being, until more friendly voices could appear, and as such departed the party to establish the Deutschvolkische Freiheitspartei - the DVFP. However, this cleaving in two of the NSPD would prove disastrous for both parties, and resulted in a total collapse in support for either party - their combined vote-share in the 1932 elections half that of 1928, resulting in neither party being able to secure seats in either regional nor federal houses, and the dissolution of both parties. Most of the former NSPD members would eventually crawl back to the SPD while the one-time members of the short-lived DVFP mostly ended up gaining membership in the DKP, DFP or DNVP under a cloud of embarrased failure. Strasser's great gamble had failed, and he now saw his political influence constrained like never before, forced to simply follow along with the formidable party leadership as they pressed onwards after the elections (4).

    With the more radical elements of German political life taken up with bitter infighting and intrigues, the floor was opened for more moderate voices to make themselves heard. While Karl Jarres had emerged as Chancellor for the governing coalition, he would find his actual influence on government policy sharply curtailed by the incredible growth experienced by the SPD throughout the preceding decade. While the changes to political representation embedded in the post-war constitution had hampered the SPD from acquiring national influence during the early and middle years of the 1920s, by the time of the 1928 election they could no longer be restrained.

    Their following in the Reichstag had grown rapidly and, despite the loss of the national socialists with Strasser's departure, they had emerged as the largest federal party by 1928. While the other members of the governing coalition had united to keep the SPD from the top post, and the SPD leadership under Friedrich Ebert were willing to allow Stresemann's chosen successor to follow him, they had been able to secure a large number of ministries through which they began to exert an influence on a federal level. Ebert himself declined a seat in the government and handed over the role of Minister President of Prussia to Otto Braun in an effort to lower his workload on the recommendations of his doctors, who had grown increasingly concerned for his health. Instead, Ebert and his long-time fellow Phillip Scheidemann took a step back from active leadership of the party, remaining as party elders to mediate disputes and provide mentorship when needed but avoiding more strenuous efforts.

    Instead, it would be Ebert's close political ally Otto Wels who took up leadership of the party in the lead-up to the 1932 elections, bringing a renewed vigour and unity to the party in the process. While Jarres had made for a decent leader of the governing coalition, he lacked the charisma of either Wels or his predecessor Stresemann. with some arguing that Jarres' time as leader had seen so few changes that it was as though Stresemann had sat another term. The result was a growing sentiment that Jarres should be replaced by someone who could compete with the energetic Wels, for fear of having the SPD swallow the coalition whole. While Erzberger proved hesitant to break with Stresemann's successor, there were voices in Centre which rallied around Joseph Wirth as a possible contender for leadership. Amongst the others proposed by the various coalition partners was the gifted, but Jewish, diplomat and industrialist Walther Rathenau and another of Stresemann's allies, Hans Luther, who brought rhetorical talent and a mind for finance to the table. Ultimately, none of these candidatures ended up moving forward for the 1932 elections, although both Wirth and Rathenau both had exceedingly good candidatures, and Jarres remained the candidate of choice for leadership of the non-SPD members of the governing coalition leading into the 1932 elections (5).

    On the right, the KVP, DNVP and DKP all sought for common ground, beyond tired of the liberal consensus which had dominated the post-Great War period. The removal of the DNVP's most extreme members, who joined the ill-fated NSPD and later DVFP, would allow for the rise of a more moderate faction of the party which rallied behind the figure of Gustav Hüsler in the negotiations with the DKP and KVP on the creation of a political bloc to form a united opposition to the government coalition. This would find backing from the KVP's Wilhelm Marx and the DKP's Oskar Hergt, who agreed to form a united front behind Hergt in the struggle to end the rule of the governing coalition.

    During this time, the DFP would experience growth amongst the Volkische movement across much of Germany, drawing sufficient support to see it rise to a status similar to the DKP, and would further gain fame and notoriety for their reliance on star power, most prominently exemplified in the figure of Manfred von Richthofen. Barnstorming across Germany, he would ask the people of the Empire whether they were truly free to live their lives and prosper, or whether the growing power of the federal government was in fact draining away the wealth of the German peoples while allowing German morality and superhuman qualities to fall by the wayside in their strive for power (6).

    Ultimately, the elections of 1932 would in some ways be seen as an extension of pre-existing circumstances, and in others as a fundamental shift. The SPD were able to massively increase their following under the leadership of Otto Wels for the elections, and as a result ended up as large as the three other coalition members combined. The Conservative bloc would see some forward progress, particularly to the detriment of the NLP and Centre, but were unable to outmuscle the government, partly due to the shocking success of the DFP, which drew away much of the momentum otherwise built by the conservatives. The result was the emergence of the SPD as the leading power of the governmental coalition, a fact that the three subsidiary parties were forced to accept with bitter mien, and the ascension of the first Social Democratic Chancellor of Germany in the form of Otto Wels to the horror of the Conservatives, foremost amongst them Emperor Wilhelm II, who refused to meet with Wels for more than half a day before the Crown Prince convinced him to follow procedure. The blow to the three liberal parties was considerable and resulted in a centripetal movement which would ultimately result in the merger of the FVP, NLP and Centre as the Deutsche Demokratische Volkspartei (German Democratic People's Party), the DDVP, as an equal partner to the SPD in government in 1933 (7).

    The turn of the decade was, in many ways, the culmination of the trends of the previous decade. Economic prosperity, if still below the levels enjoyed by their western counterparts, was widespread while unemployment was at a low point and new industries were expanding at a rapid rate. Radios were becoming commonplace in most middleclass households, resulting in a rapidly growing profusion of entertainment and information programming, from epic dramas and operatic pieces to news broadcasts and direct appeals from political figures, the result was to bring a new spark of energy to the daily lives of many Germans. Radio personalities became celebrities, and voice actors found themselves sought after by a growing profusion of competing radio stations, ever on the look out for an opportunity to one-up their rivals. The peoples of Germany became increasingly aware of their common identity through various historical programmes, often with a volkisch outlook, alongside a growing trend towards radio dramas set in the Holy Roman Empire which emphasized the unique freedoms of the German Peoples, the result of many prominent German radio writers being influenced by the DFP, which had originated in literary circles and proliferated amongst artists of all sorts.

    At the same time, the relative success of the Prussian Welfare System, which significantly improved working conditions and compensation while avoiding most of the chaos associated with strikes and lockouts, drew envy and spite from other corners of the Empire and soon saw the SPD attempt to promote its spread on a federal level. The result was a series of legislative proposals in the Reichstag centered around implementing elements of the Welfare State on a federal level. While the SPD was successful in extending worker health and safety protections, most of these initiatives failed in the 1928-1932 period, the most significant of these failed efforts being an overhaul of the Reichsversicherungsordnung (RVO) which had combined various government-issued insurances into a single set of laws in 1911, but which had not been touched since. The SPD's hope was to use the RVO as a springboard for a federal social security programme which would better fit the implementation of the Prussian Welfare model on a federal level.

    Of particular note during this period was the growing scepticism towards the German Cartel system, which particularly the DFP came to argue was simply a vehicle for the exploitation of the free German peoples through monopolistic market structures which placed the burden of Germany's economic development upon the consumer and worker rather than upon the corporate structures of the Empire, which could better bear the costs than the average German. Outside of Prussia, wage strikes and protests over working conditions proved a common affair, although these rarely escalated to beyond the manageable.

    Finally, this period also saw the rise of the German Noir genre, influenced by the increasing prominence of various criminal organisations based out of Germany, but involved in criminality across the Zollverein nations, and in some cases even further. The development of illicit smuggling routes through Ukraine and the Adriatic would see the introduction of Hashish and Opium as the commodities of choice in the criminal underworld, with particularly White Russian émigrés and Sicilians becoming infamous as the villains of choice for the brave German detective in German crime novels of the period, the cosmopolitan port city of Trieste becoming a key setting for many of these novels, alongside the lively Berlin and seedy Hamburg (8).

    Footnotes:
    (1) Germany is consolidating its grip on power in Eastern Europe with great success, although at the cost of alienating some who feel that the deepening of ties puts them ever further under the shadow of the Germans. While the Ethiopian, Chinese, Japanese, Arabian and Nordic diplomatic efforts are all important, and set the stage for Germany as an international superpower, it is the relationship to the Ottoman Empire which should jump out at this point considering where we left off with the Two Rivers Crisis. The signing of a defensive military alliance suddenly puts Germany front and centre in the brewing crisis, staring down the British alongside the Ottomans.

    (2) I wanted to use this section to go through the developments of the various radical movements, the Communists, Catholics and National Socialists. This particular section, however focuses on the Communist developments in Germany. It should be noted that the rise of the young radicals around Thalmann is closely linked to the fate of Trotsky in Moscow, and as such the better he does the better this clique will do. This has the result of digging away at the power and authority of the German Communist movement as an independent entity which, while influenced by the Muscovites, has remained an independent entity entirely from the Russians. Thalmann and his supporters want not only to push for a more militant position for the party, but also to build much closer ties to the Trotskyite Communists globally.

    (3) The Catholics of the Empire are further divided. I just do not see how the mainstream Centre party would be willing to support something as radical as the Revolutionary Catholic Church - which really does smack of heresy to many of them. It seems impossible to my eyes that Catholics would be able to remain as united as they were IOTL considering the upheavals experienced by the Catholic Church ITTL, and as such we see a rapid fracturing of Centre Unity, first to the right and now to the left. The result is that the Centre Party suddenly finds itself significantly weakened, unable to be more than the third or fourth party of the governing coalition. However, it bears reminding that the inclusion of Alsace-Lorraine, German Poland and Austria all bring with them significant Catholic populations who increase the voter base from which the three Catholic parties draw, so it is not quite as dire a situation as it might seem at first glance, but it is still a devastating blow.

    (4) Otto Strasser's experiment proves an absolute catastrophe, as should seem likely when you actually try to enforce the socialist part of national socialism. IOTL this divide was one Hitler struggled heartily to straddle before simply turning against the socialist wing of the Nazi party the moment he had the opportunity. ITTL the situation is somewhat different, as long as the party had hopes of massive (probably unrealistic) success in the leadup to the 1928 elections they were able to make it work, but following their initial disappointment and more extended period of being forced to work together, as well as Strasser's increasingly forceful push for a proper nationalist and socialist movement, these tensions simply ended up running over and the party collapsed in on itself. It is worth noting that the DNVP rejected the return of the DVFP as a faction, but were more open to welcoming them back into the party on an individual basis. All that really comes of the NSPD experiment is the alienation of national socialists from ultra-nationalists and a undermining of their claim to political relevancy, at least for the time being. Otto Strasser returns to the SPD with much of his backing still intact, but has lost much of the trust he had previously built up in the party and is forced to humble himself like never before to get back in - most notably publicly apologizing for the statements which led to his expulsion and renounce many of his beliefs.

    (5) With both Stresemann and Ebert taking a backseat from federal politics for health reasons, the reign of the two giants of German politics in the 1920s comes to an end. While both remain immensely influential, they do not enter the firing line and instead dedicate themselves to their passions - Stresemann to the Zollverein and Ebert to the development of the German Welfare State. I am probably assigning a bit too much weight to these things, but Jarres really seems to have been a bit too much of a Stresemann-yes man for him to be viewed as anything more than that, considering the circumstances of his rise to leadership of the government. Considering Otto Wels was the only man in the Reichstag with the guts to call the Nazis on their bullshit with the Reichstag Fire, I felt he would bring a level of fire and passion to the situation which could give him a step up. I was honestly intrigued at the potential for Rathenau to become the face of the government, but ultimately thought I would keep the anti-Semitic genie in the bottle for now.

    (6) I think that the DFP could actually get a pretty decent following considering the sort of celebrities they can draw on and the rather appealing message they have for a population increasingly dissatisfied with the lack of growth of their personal wealth. The formation of a Conservative Bloc seemed like the obvious development to me in this situation, with the DNVP shedding its most prominent anti-Semites and putting forward a more moderate face than previously. This development is critical in the formation of a proper opposition to the government, which has largely been able to skate by during the previous decade due to the bitter divisions of the opposing parties and their cooption of the SPD. As we move forward, the Conservatives will begin to formulate a far more unified message and draw greater support.

    (7) While the governing coalition retains its rule, the shift from the leadership of the Liberals to the SPD is a shocking development which will send waves through Germany in the years to come. The SPD are finally the party of government, the culmination of their long-term shift towards centralisation and government power, and can begin to implement their programme on a federal level. However, their ascendancy also brings with it considerable opposition and even their own coalition partners have such mixed feelings about the matter that they see it necessary to act in an effort to build a counterweight to the SPD. When the CSPD broke from Centre, I felt that they had become too small to be able to really carry their weight in the governing coalition - and as I looked more closely at the Liberal position in the governing coalition I couldn't help but feel that this was their best way of countering the rise of the SPD. Three liberal parties, with increasingly small differences, are two to many if the Liberals want to avoid the SPD playing them off against each other (which is what happened during Jarres' term of office) and with all sides willing to set aside their religious divisions they are able to pull together. I ended up merging the names of the DDP and DVP of OTL for the name of the party.

    (8) This section is a bit meandering, but the main goal of it is to highlight the way in which the SPD is starting to make an actual impact on the federal level, even before securing the Chancellery, and have really embraced the Prussian model as their model of choice. We also see the way in which the DFP is able to play an outsized role in German culture and society while gradually formulating a more expansive ideology including economic policies originally neglected in the early formulations of their beliefs - mostly in a direction more reminiscent of libertarian economic ideology, although this remains a secondary concern to the DFP. Finally, we get a bit of insight into the way in which the Zollverein is also resulting in the development of criminal ties across much of eastern Europe.


    %C3%89douard_Herriot_01.jpg

    Édouard Herriot, Prime Minister of France

    A Most French Discombobulation​

    France at the end of the 1920s was a country on two divergent tracks. On one hand was the growing urban France with an ever increasing stream of migrants, both those fleeing the conservatism of the countryside for the free-wheeling life in the cities and those moving from France's colonies in Africa and Asia who had been recruited to fill in the population shortfall produced by the Great War and Great Flu Epidemic, as workers in French factories, mines and other industrial works. This France saw French renditions of Proletkult held in urban parks and theatres, while cinemas provided a wide-ranging selection of European and Russian movies, largely eschewing the more conservative fare coming out of the United States, and a profusion of women's liberation movements joined in the near-weekly marches and parades held by one left-wing organisation or other. Urban France lived the fast life and in the process drew the condemnation of the other half of France - the Rural, Catholic and Conservative France which was seeing itself increasingly sidelined by their urban compatriots. Women in particular made up a large part of the group moving to the cities, young widows, repressed and oppressed teenagers and the hardworking farm maids who played a vital role in the running of the average French farm, but were also amongst some of the most vulnerable groups to make this move, who experienced exploitation as both industrial workers and in more illicit parts of the economy.

    By the last years of the 1920s, France found itself largely recovered from the troubles of the preceding decade and a half, with a growing number of French investors helping to build a more nationally united economy while American and British investors increasingly withdrew from the economy, whether as a result of President McAdoo's economic policies in the middle of the decade or as a result of the British economic slow down. The result was that Frenchmen were able to buy out their Anglophone investors at bargain prices, often backed by the French government in the form of low-interest loans, bringing their industry back under French control to the utter delight of particularly the moderate right-wing, who had been championing such efforts since the beginning of the decade.

    However, with French industry back in French hands, the moderate figures on the right found themselves scrambling for a platform from which to make their case in the face of a rapidly growing far-right, which presented itself as a defender of French morality and promised to restore France to its time in the sun. The 1928 elections would clarify these developments as, while Aristide Briand was able to extend his Presidency yet another term, major shifts in the legislative results due to the strengthening of left-wing sentiments in French cities led to a collapse of Paul Doumer's political position in favor of the left-wing Édouard Herriot as President of the Council of Ministers, whose fervent support for laicism and secularism caused conniptions amongst the French far-right. In general, the 1928 elections saw the rise of a left-wing coalition based around the Radical Party, the Democratic Alliance and the SFIO, who together made up a majority of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while the center-right and right both saw major losses not only to this new coalition government but also to the Union de la Droite - whose political leadership had increasingly fallen to the notorious Maurice Pujo, a co-founder of Action Francais and leader of the Camelots du Roi monarchist youth movement, with Ferdinand Foch falling ill as he neared the end of his life (9).

    The rise of the left to political power in France at the turn of the decade would have significant consequences for the future development of the country. The new government under Édouard Herriot came to power with a strong mandate, particularly when compared to the average government of the Third Republic, and as such immediately set about bringing about the demands of the governing coalition's supporters. The first topic of discussion was the expansion of the social security net which had proven itself unsuited to dealing with the many people whose lives continued to be marked by the devastation of the Great War. Over the course of 1929 and 1930, a series of proposals gradually came into being as a result which would allow for the development of an increasingly extensive set of protections covering pensions for old age, widows and orphans, unemployment protections, work safety regulations, expanded the right to strike and, most controversially, the development of a national healthcare service.

    French healthcare had long lagged behind their British and German counterparts as private French medical professionals jealously guarded their prerogatives while healthcare activists had lacked organisation and influence up until the Great War. With the devastation of the French population, with lingering effects from wounds and the Flu in particular putting pressure on the pre-existing systems, the cry to take care of France's heroes grew ever louder. The governments of the early 1920s had been forced to focus on rebuilding the nation and restoring French industry to the control of its nationals, but with those issues out of the way and a more activist government in power the time had now come to resolve this issue. The result was the proposal of a national healthcare which covered the aforementioned veterans, widows and orphans, as well as the employed working class and their dependents, leaving a gap in coverage of about 1/3 of the population.

    To finance these numerous initiatives, the French government turned to a broad and varied number of tax measures which would land disproportionately on the upper and middle classes, reductions in military and colonial spending as well as a series of governmental bonds - although when later calculations by critics of the programmes were done, a gap in funding was still identified. The plan proved immediately divisive, with the right in an open uproar over the massive increase in government expenditures the plan would require, when the state was still paying off both the various loans taken out during the Great War and in its immediate aftermath. Aristide Briand would express considerable worry over Herriot's ambitions, but ultimately backed the effort as well. The result was the voting into law of the Comprehensive Social Protections Law of 1931, with the actual implementation of the various programmes set to come into effect over the course of the decade (10).

    The death of Ferdinand Foch, the standard bearer of the French Right and most prominent military figure in France, would cause a major shift in the political balance of right-wing politics as the UD came fully under the influence of monarchist integralists like Charles Maurras and Maurice Pujo. While Maurras and Pujo had initially been determined to lead a revolution from the right through extra-parliamentary means, over the course of the 1920s it had become increasingly clear that the Union de la Droite was the best vehicle towards achieving their aims of a monarchical restoration and as such they had quickly become amongst the party's most fervent leaders.

    In their efforts they were soon to be joined by a wide array of young right-wing intellectuals such as Jean de Fabrègues, Jean-Pierre Maxence, Thierry Maulnier, Maurice Blanchot and Emmanuel Mounier, collectively known as the Jeune Droite, the Young Right, who were convinced that France stood before a "crisis of civilization" as Communism ran rampant and the traditional bulwarks of society in the Catholic Church shuddered under repeated body blows. These thinkers called for a move beyond the individualism of Capitalism, which they believed to represent the beliefs of the political center in French politics, and the collectivism of Communism, which they saw as represented by the left-wing government now in power, towards a New Order in which community and the personal could be united. While drawing inspiration from the Sidonists of Portugal, Fascists of Sicily and Deutsche Freiheit movement of Germany, there were some of their members who looked towards the left for inspiration - particularly Pruodhonism with its anti-statist outlook. Debate and discussion between these thinkers resulted in a healthy and dynamic political discourse on the right which would join with the integralist monarchism of Action Francais and the Camelots du Rois to form the core ideology of the UD.

    The passage of the Comprehensive Social Protections Law would prove the binding element which brought the UD together with more moderate elements on the French Right, particularly those representing the interests of the business classes who were particularly impacted by the series of new regulations not only through having to pay a disproportionately larger tax bill but also from having to change working conditions to match the new laws - most prominently the industrialist and ideologue Jacques Arthuys who brought with him a host of other far-right figures when he joined UD. Angered by these developments, many of those once on the center-right found a home in the UD amongst its more Proudhonist wing, abhorring the abuses of government while growing increasingly convinced of the need for a strong right-leaning leader (11).

    Simultaneously with the emergence of UD as a major political force on the right, there was a growing shift towards the left by left-oriented sections of society. While the Radical-Socialist government remained popular, it still saw a siphoning of support towards the SFIO, which was itself becoming increasingly radical. The French labor movement in particular benefitted from the expansion of their right to strike, with numerous industries and corporations forced into accord with union wishes during the first few years under the new law, while SFIO-aligned labor unions experienced explosive growth across the French industrial heartland - although none came close to the power once held by the outlawed CGT. During these years, the Revolutionary Catholic Church also made inroads in France, causing great outrage and even violence by more conservative forces, helping in the rebuilding of ties between the French government and the Italian Socialist regime - culminating in an exchange of ambassadors and the signing of an agreement establishing channels for travel, seasonal labor and temporary residency between the two countries in late 1931 (12).

    The outbreak of colonial troubles in Indochina in 1930 were largely viewed as insignificant to begin with but as the situation gradually took a turn for the worse and the conflict escalated, the decision of the Herriot government to cut military and colonial spending to pay for their welfare reforms came under increasing scrutiny. With major setbacks in late 1931, news of which arrived barely weeks after the passage of the Comprehensive Social Protections Law, these decisions came under considerable critique in the French press - particularly on the right-wing. With colonial troubles emerging across the globe, particularly in the lands held by Britain, the issue seemed ever more important to not only French prestige but also its economic welfare. While the Herriot government was able to dispatch significant forces to quell the troubles in Indochina, this act in itself proved remarkably unpopular with his coalition partners in the SFIO whose more radical members began to agitate for an end to the current French colonial policy of assimilation and association. In its place they hoped for the creation of a path towards independence for France's colonies which would maintain the francophone relationship while ending French exploitation of their colonial subjects.

    While the rebels in Indochina were driven into the jungles in a series of bloody battles, many even fleeing into Southern China where they joined up with the Jiaxing Communists who were themselves under pressure from the Fengtian government, this response would prove too little, too late in the eyes of the right and too much in the eyes of the left. The result was the sudden collapse of what had otherwise been one of the most stable governments of the Third Republic when the SFIO withdrew its support for the government in early-1932, beginning a period of political anarchy in which governments formed and collapsed with near-monthly regularity, even as international affairs came to a boiling point (13).

    As the Spirit of Amsterdam began to crumble and crises emerged around the world, France found itself hamstrung by domestic political concerns with only the redoubtable Aristide Briand remaining as a guiding light to the French Republic, but even he would crumble under the pressure, dying in office in April of 1932, throwing an already embattled state into outright chaos. The issue lay in the fact that according to Third Republic regulations, the death or incapacitation of the President would see the President of the Council take up office until the matter could be resolved in an election, but with the rotating carousel in the executive branch, as governments came and went with astonishing speed, the result was a complete lack of leadership in the French Republic just as matters in the Middle East were coming to a head. While elections had originally been scheduled for May of 1932, the collapse of the government and death of Briand threw preparations into chaos, requiring a rescheduling of the elections for August of 1932. While many hoped and prayed that these elections would resolve matters properly, this was not to be the case.

    The French August 1932 legislative elections returned an even more divided Chamber of Deputies, as the left-wing governing coalition turned on itself while the UD made significant progress. The result was that while the SFIO emerged as the single largest party in the chamber it was followed closely by the UD, each holding around twenty-five percent of the seats, while the various parties in between the two split the remainder between them. The SFIO leadership under Léon Blum was willing to rebuild relations with the Radical-Socialists and other left-leaning parties, but demanded leadership of this new coalition, a proposition which the more centrist parties felt forced to reject for fears of turning over the Republic to Communists. The UD next tried to form a government, but found themselves rejected as well by their potential partners on the Right who felt that the far-right presented a major threat to the Republic given their monarchist affiliations.

    Thus, it became a matter for the parties closer to the center to work out a deal, with André Tardieu and his Democratic Alliance eventually forming a dangerously unstable coalition with the Radical-Socialists across the Center of politics on a shared wish to protect the Republic from both the far-left and far-right. This allowed for the election of Gaston Doumergue as President of France as part of the deal brokered between the Democratic Alliance (AD) and the Radical-Socialists, who was immediately thrown into the deep end politically when the alliance between AD and the Radical-Socialists crumbled barely days after the President's election, resulting in the fall of the Tardieu government two weeks after its ascension to power (14).

    Footnotes:
    (9) It is worth mentioning that we are not talking about an absolutely massive stream of migrants from the colonies, but rather a significant but moderate increase. It is not only the elites coming to France for education, but a broader cross-section of the colonial population coming to France to help fill in the population gap as mentioned - they mostly do menial work as day-laborers and other basic work which you don't need an extensive education for. I should also note that these migrants are almost all either located in the urban industrial centres or up around the Béthune Mine Fields, working and living in barracks-style buildings at the mines, not the countryside, where they are liable to be lynched if something goes awry. Another important development is the French takeover of French industry through governmental economic support and pre-existing British and American trends, it should be noted that the Channel Tunnel Scandal in Britain also makes investments in France in general politically toxic, with many arguing that the money would be better spent in Britain. We further see the French center-right collapse politically and the political center of gravity shift to the left. Finally, Action Francaise and the far-right in general take up the banner of left by Ferdinand Foch, who dies on schedule in 1929. I am going with the assumption that the example set by integralist states in Iberia and Sicily inspires their further ideological development and growth as a viable political option.

    (10) As far as I am aware, France only developed the elements of a welfare state in the post-WW2 period, and as such went through the Interwar period with significant troubles in their health sector. Now the passage of a comprehensive welfare package like this is going to be controversial and places a considerable burden on the state, but I felt that with the advent of a relatively stable left-wing government they would take the opportunity to bring their state on par with what is offered in Britain (the national healthcare plan is based on that passed in Britain in 1911, just expanded to take into account the developments of the time since then). However, as we will see in the following section the passage of this law will have considerable ramifications for the development of the French right wing as opposition to the law forces the otherwise centre-right oriented upper classes to turn further rightward for support in opposition to the legislation.

    (11) These are some really interesting and important divergences from OTL, because IOTL the Young Right and its wider circle of Non-Conformists of the 1930s were firmly opposed to fascism, viewing it as being as pernicious as Communism. ITTL the ideological development of Fascism was changed and it is instead the integralism of Iberia which has emerged as the most significant ideological movement on the right. This change, added to the ideological shock which the circumstances of the Catholic Church provoke, are sufficient to shift many of these thinkers onto an ideological path more compatible with Action Francais and as such pave the path for the Union de la Droite to emerge as a wider tent of a party. The death of Foch allows Action Francais to step forward as though it is a continuation of Foch's political beliefs (Foch ITTL is remarkably unclear in what exactly his right-wing ideology actually was) and as such harvests great support amongst Foch's supporters. It is worth also noting the arrival of OTL fascists like Jacques Arthuys and Georges Valois, who provide a somewhat different flavour of radical right-wing ideology to Pujo and Maurras.

    (12) Yeah, the French Left does not back down from anyone, certainly not pissant monarchists from the far-right. They push forward and even normalize relations with Socialist Italy, which sets off absolute outrage on the right and in Catholic circles. France is quickly moving in opposing directions and the political center is shrinking rapidly. For now affairs remain relatively peaceful, although there are attacks on Italian migrants and illegal breakups of strikes, but whether matters will remain so if the pressure rises is another matter entirely.

    (13) I will be getting into much greater detail with the Indochinese troubles in the next update, but I felt that it was important to go into its effects on France beforehand because they are major. France in the post-Great War Period has had one of its most stable periods in recent history ITTL with Briand presiding over long-standing governments, but that is coming to an end now. The Indochinese troubles send shockwaves through French politics which had been hyper focused on the welfare reforms by demonstrating the troubles involved in cutting military and colonial funding (bear in mind that this is happening before any such cuts actually go into effect). It is important to remind the readers that the SFIO did not split with the Communists ITTL and as such are significantly further to the left than most other mainstream left-wing parties at the time, and as such they also maintain the anti-colonial stance of the Communists, which is why they are willing to break with the government on the issue. Hell, they had hoped to exploit the opportunity to take up government themselves should the opportunity present itself.

    (14) It was a bit funny, I had actually started to write about how Briand was this great unifying force in this political crisis, only to realize that he died IOTL in March of 1932, I am giving him a month extra here, which really made the whole situation a great deal worse. I delayed the elections a bit as it seems likely the political chaos immediately resulting from Briand's death and the constant shifts in government would make it hard to manage. The result is a series of elections which do little more than tell everyone that the far-left and far-right are on the rise, forcing the center to briefly unite. The collapse of Tardieu's government should help give an understanding of exactly how unstable the political situation has become at this point, although Doumergue's appointment proves a blessing in many ways. One thing I should make a note of here is that Doumergue is a Protestant, so his appointment does not go down well with the UD. Should also note here that Presidential elections in the Third Republic were done by the Chamber of Deputies, which is why the initial alliance between AD and the Radical-Socialists is so important to make a note of.

    End Note:
    With that we bring to an end the first half of our European tour. I really hope you enjoyed the jump into German and French affairs and the details setting out the situation before we jump into the Two Rivers Crisis in greater detail. A lot of the German developments build on or are supplemented by the Insight update from @Ombra, so I hope you will forgive if some of it is a bit repetitive.

    The situation in France was fun to explore with the great internal divisions and how those fractures interact with the political and societal development of France.

    Now I am going to go back to my League of Legends World Championship overdose. Have had so much enjoyment out of following that pro-scene for the last couple years. Oh, and NFL this evening - basically I am drowning in great entertainment the next month and oh so lucky to have built up a significant buffer. Anyway, hope you all enjoy!
     
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    Update Thirty-One (Pt. 2): The Turbulent Heart of Europe
  • The Turbulent Heart of Europe

    Juan_Vazquez_de_Mella_1906.JPG

    Juan Vázquez de Mella, Prime Minister of Spain

    The Latin Pact​

    The 1924 coup which effectively made King Alfonso XII dictator of Spain marked an abrupt end to the liberalism with which the Borbon restoration had been connected for decades. The new leading ideology was to see the subsumation of various Conservative and Carlist ideological movements such as Integralism and Traditionalism into Borbon Integralism which was, in turn, to become the law of the land. Carefully stage-managed elections saw the appointment of a weakened and subservient Cortes led by Juan Vázquez de Mella, a man once inextricably connected to the Carlists, but who had had shifted to support for King Alfonso alongside his many supporters while retaining their ideological support for integralism and a maximalist traditionalist belief, and his talented seconds Jaime Chicharro Sánchez-Guió and Tomás Dolze de Espejo, Count of La Florida (15).

    At the same time, the King strengthened his hold on the military by removing Miguel Primo de Rivera, who had expressed reservations about the Rif Campaign on several occasions in the past, from a position of power and promoted his favorite Manuel Fernández y Silvestre to Captain-General in his place while Dámaso Berenguer Fusté and José Sanjurjo y Sacanell were promoted to Generals of the Army - in effect making them the first, second and third men in the Army. Despite not outlawing pre-existing parties immediately, Alfonso was hereby able to secure a firm grip on national politics and the military - the two tools which he was next to turn against the Spanish left-wing and republican forces (16).

    The first blow to the Left came concurrently with the arrival of the Papacy to Santiago de Compostela when Socialist, Communist and Anarchist organizations were officially outlawed and membership in any such organizations made grounds for imprisonment in late 1924. The first organization struck was the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, whose leadership, including Julián Besterio and Francisco Largo Caballero, were imprisoned alongside hundreds of party members while a few made their escape to France. This was soon followed almost simultaneously by a crackdown against the Spanish Communist Party whose entire leadership was imprisoned alongside the writers and editors of all major left-wing publications in Spain. This initial crackdown sent terror through the left, soon prompting calls for a general strike by the CNT, the large anarchist labor union which dominated politics in Catalonia, after it became clear that there was no negotiating with Alfonso and Mella. However, the CNT headquarters were raided even as the leaflets calling for the strike were being loaded for distribution just days before a secondary crackdown on the socialist UGT went through. Within a week, the left found itself decapitated, its leaders either imprisoned or on the run alongside most of the party and union bureaucracies, Alfonso having been determined to root out any potential opposition as soon as possible.

    The incredible speed, scope and success of the crackdown was to draw much comment as it became increasingly clear that these plans had been under development for years prior to their implementation. While sporadic strikes and demonstrations erupted around the country at the crackdown, it was largely disorganized and spontaneous, with military force successfully quelling any such civil disobedience which didn't disperse within a day or two. In total, more than 15,000 people would be arrested during December and some 200 killed across the country even as all four organizations were dissolved (17).

    In place of the UGT and CNT, Alfonso embarked on an ambitious plan of corporatism, establishing a series of Corporatist Associations for individual segments of the society which were to be centrally commanded by the National Coordination Organization (OCN), established with King Alfonso at its head, as a coordinating body between state-sponsored associations which sought to ensure loyalty the Monarchy, Church and State. As such, every Spanish citizen was required to join their representative Association, workers joining their district Industrial Associations, military men joining their regimental associations while children and students joined their respective educational associations. The idea here was to organize the state into more easily directed units, based on inspiration from the Carlist Corporatist Traditionalism of Mella, Integralist Sidonism of Portugal and Alfonso's own absolutist ambitions. Alongside the formation of these Associations, Alfonso oversaw the cartelization of the Spanish industry as yet another vehicle for the strengthening of his power, with each cartel seeing the appointment of a government representative to ensure compliance with the aims of the King. As the initial efforts took place over the course of 1925 and 1926, Alfonso worked hand-in-hand with Pope Gregory VII, whose Spanish ancestry helped ease the transition as the papacy moved to Santiago de Compostela, ensuring Papal support for his every move, Pope Gregory going so far as to give his blessing for the Spanish Church to preach in favor of Alfonso's political moves (18).

    These various changes which occurred during 1925 and 1926 laid the groundwork for a rapid growth of the Spanish economy as major infrastructural works, meant to tie together the country, and expansive industrialisation plans came under way with the full force of the government behind it. As with Sidonio in Portugal, the Spanish opened up trade and industrial relations with the Germans, securing the presence of German engineers in the construction of factories, roads, bridges and railways while a university partnership allowed Spanish students access to prestigious leading German universities. While the Spanish state enforced the establishment of powerful industrial cartels, providing economies of scale and ease of direction, who benefitted from these developments, the state was also able to enforce the acquisition of a stake in each cartel by the government as a secondary method of revenue collection. This was to help incentivise the government's support for the cartels while strengthening government control over them in turn, in effect creating a partial nationalisation which still placed the bulk of the costs and the burden of leadership on private businessmen like Juan March, who was given charge of the Spanish Tobacco Cartel (19).

    At the same time, the latter half of the 1920s saw a continual tightening of Alfonso's grip on power as avenues of opposition were gradually removed and rival sources of authority were weakened and eventually done away with. Most harshly targeted by these efforts were the Liberals, who had reacted with horror to Alfonso's hard right turn and who had increasingly come to champion republicanism as a solution to the outstanding problems facing Spain. The result was a series of ever harsher and more expansive crackdowns between 1925 and 1929, when the last great sweep seeing the shattered remnants of the Spanish Republicans imprisoned or scattered into exile - many finding their way to Argentina where they were welcomed with open arms. The many thousands of political prisoners created during this period by Alfonso's repression placed a considerable burden on the Spanish prison system, which led Alfonso to seek to divide them amongst themselves. In a show of magnanimity, he promised pardon to those willing to swear personal loyalty to the regime and to betray the dirty deeds of their compatriots for widespread publication, a choice taken by several thousands, who would come to be known collectively as Las Traidores de la Cárcel Modelo de Madrid in reference to the Madrid Prison to which they were transferred before their release, while those who proved intransigent were commonly used for hard labor either on Spain's infrastructure projects or in Morocco, where more than one prisoner would fall afoul of angry ex-Riffans, as they worked on government projects in the colony.

    By the turn of the decade, Alfonso's focus had shifted from his direct opposition towards unorthodoxy on the political right-wing. To deal with this he first extended an open hand to those Carlists willing to work with him, while strengthening repression against those unwilling to compromise, even as he began to weed out those amongst his own supporters unwilling to follow his every directive. This was most effectively accomplished by Alfonso pushing the conservative parties to adopt support for the centralization of power in the federal state, in contrast to their traditional regionalism and separatism. Any who opposed this shift, most prominently the lauded Carlist José Díez de la Cortina y Olaeta, found themselves the target of Alfonso's repression, pushed to either relinquish their own beliefs or face imprisonment or exile - Cortina choosing exile in America rather than give in to the pressure. These efforts were directed by Brigadier General Emilio Mola y Vidal beginning in 1925, who was named Director-General of Security in 1927. In his new post, Mola would quickly establish an expansive security apparatus including secret police forces in both civilian and military life who ensured support and compliance with government wishes (20).

    Prime Minister Mella, a participant in Alfonso's reforms from the start, was a longtime diabetic who was forced to limit his involvement in state affairs in the years between his ascension as Prime Minister and his death in 1928. Having had to have his leg amputated bare months before his ascension, Mella struggled to muster the health to resolve his duties, but was forced to rely on several of his supporters for aid during his Premiership. The most prominent figure to emerge from this process was Jaime Chicharro Sánchez-Guió, often known as Chicharro Sánchez, who built a strong rapport with King Alfonso during his various visits to the royal palace to coordinate matters between Mella and the King. As such, when Mella died, Alfonso was quick to elevate Chicharro Sánchez in his place. However, lacking the sheer political gravitas of Mella, Chicharro found himself forced to work more cooperatively, most prominently with the Count of Florida, the immensely influential politician and journalist Claro Abánades López and the prominent Carlist Tomás Domínguez Arévalo, the Count of Rodezno. Even so, Chicharro's regionalist and decentralising tendencies would increasingly clash with Alfonso as he gained more courage, culminating in 1932 when Chicharro's own weakening health was used by Alfonso as a pretext for setting him aside in favor of the Count of Florida, who took up the post as Prime Minister in Chicharro's place. Even as these events were occurring within Spain, Alfonso was turning his attention to international matters once more, having spent the preceding years building ties to Sicily and Portugal, culminating in the signing of a military alliance between all three states at Valencia in 1927. This alliance would be expanded into economic and political matters in 1929 and came to be known as the Latin Pact - a term which came into general usage from then on.

    The death of Pope Gregory VII on 26th of February 1930 prompted immense fears that further division within the church would result - and while there were some who wished to rush proceedings to ensure that the Church maintained stability, as had on occasion happened in the past, it was felt that a united church must be shown to the outer world after the body blows it had received in recent years. As Cardinals from across the world rushed to Santiago de Compostela to elect their new head, divisions between liberal and conservative wings of the church once more exploded into the open. The arrival of the exceedingly liberal American cardinals in arch-conservative Spain proved troublesome, as the conclave quickly turned contentious. Ideological opponents sniped at each other as various candidates were proposed and rejected. Ultimately the choice would boil down to the French cardinal Eugène-Gabriel-Gervais-Laurant Tisserent of France, a prominent anti-authoritarian with support from the liberal wing of the church and particularly from the American cardinals, and the Spanish Cardinal Isidro Gomá y Tomás, a supporter of the conservative Pope Gregory VII and a fervent supporter of integralism. Ultimately, it would be the reactionaries, much better entrenched in Santiago de Compostela and able to muster support from much of Europe, and in particular the exiled Italian Cardinals, who won out after a bitter five rounds of balloting, resulting in the election of Cardinal Gomá. The Cardinal's ascension to the Papal Throne, painstakingly transported from Rome during the Church's evacuation, as Pope Pius XI would signal a strengthening of the conservative wing of the Catholic Church and its intention to continue expanding its political influence as the new Pope dedicated his first sermon to the necessity of a Confessional State, a topic near and dear to his heart (21).

    As the first country to turn to Integralism, Portugal came to be viewed as a frontrunner and testbed for the implementation of Integralist ideology globally. Despite having strengthened his grip on power during the travails of 1918 and 1919, Sidónio Bernadino Cadroso da Silva Pais, the President-King of Portugal, as he was infamously dubbed by the controversial Portuguese writer Fernando Pessoa, had found his reign contested on multiple fronts. The first of these forces to oppose Sidónio had been the Republicans under Francisco da Cunha Leal and Álvaro Xavier de Castro who attempted an abortive coup in early 1919 only to be crushed ruthlessly in a purge of anti-Sidonist Republicans which left hundreds imprisoned and more fleeing into exile. This was followed weeks later by Henrique de Paiva Coucerio, a dedicated monarchist politician and experienced military leader, who attempted to exploit the chaos provoked by the failed coup to rally royalist integralists in the region. Working alongside the influential integralist leader Alberto de Morés Monsaraz, Coucerio hoped to support the restoration of Manuel II to the throne but soon found the situation slipping through his hand with worrying haste as more prominent integralists, like the movement's founder, António Maria de Sousa Sardinha, spoke out in Sidónio's favor. Within a week the attempted revolution had collapsed as Sidonist supporters went on strike in Porto, the heart of Coucerio's attempted monarchist revolt, shutting down the city entirely until it could be retaken and the rebels imprisoned. Deciding on leniency, these monarchists would spend a couple years in prison before they were pardoned by Sidónio in a public show of mercy.

    Finally, the most worrying attempt to overthrow Sidónio's New Republic would occur in October of 1921 when a conspiracy between António José de Almeida, one of the republican ministers pulled from power in Sidónio's own coup, and the prominent military officer Colonel Manuel Maria Coelho, who had only returned to Portugal earlier that year after more than a decade in Africa to find the state in the grip of a tyrant, launched an attempted coup. Occurring on the night of the 19th of October 1921, The Noite Sangrenta, Bloody Night, would see a string of assassinations and attempted assassinations by Coelho-affiliated officers and military cadets serving at the Military Hospital of Campolide, which Coelho was head of. These attacks would see the Secretary of the Navy, José Carlos da Maia, and Cardinal Benedetto Aloisi Masella - the key connection tying the New Republic to the Catholic Church, gunned down in the streets of Lisboa while the revolutionary hero Machado Santos was wounded and Sidónio's bodyguard lose three men to a sudden attack on the President. This first half of the Noite Sangrenta was followed by a far more bloody second half as the Sidonists counterattacked the coup-makers, capturing Almeida as he was waiting on news of the assassinations while killing Coelho in a bloody firefight within the halls of the Military Hospital of Campolide alongside many of his men, with yet another purge rooting out the remnants of Almeida and Coelho's supporters. The Noite Sangrenta was to prove the last major attempt to overturn the Sidonist regime of the period and would serve an important use for Sidónio moving forward, for with the Noite Sangrenta Sidónio could now move against the only major institution and faction not fully under his authority - the military.

    Over the course of late 1921 and early 1922, Sidónio would mobilise the entire state and peoples of Portugal to force the military into compliance. Military officers suspected of Liberal Republican and Monarchist sympathies alike were dismissed en masse while civilian Commissioners were appointed to every regiment and unit in the navy to ensure loyalty to the regime and a civilian Oversight Board was set up to give Sidónio an even firmer grip on affairs (22).

    With his main sources of opposition killed, imprisoned, exiled or neutered by 1922 Sidónio could now finally turn his attentions fully towards matters of building the Sidonist State. The first, and most critical, task facing Sidónio after his taming of the military was to rebuild his relationship with the bitterly embattled Catholic Church - a task which would prove more difficult than might have initially been thought given that the ongoing Italian Civil War caused the Church to deprioritise restoring relations with Portugal. In the meantime, Sidónio found himself faced with a problem which would hound his rule for years to come - what exactly the role of the Catholic Church was to be in the New Republic. While everyone in the Sidonist ranks were firmly in favour of a restoration of relations with the Catholic Church following the blows that relationship had been given with both the 1911 Revolution and the Noite Sangrenta, the question of the degree to which the Church was to involve itself in society, particularly politically, proved a matter of immense disagreement and controversy.

    On one side, arguing for a political church, was the 34 year-old Antonio Maria de Sousa Sardinha who was a wholehearted supporter of Church participation, and potentially even leadership, in political affairs. Sardinha had been a prominent voice in monarchist and conservative circles in recent years, with a large following which he had brought to the table when he joined the National Republican Party. As Prime Minister from 1920 onward, following the retirement of the venerable Joao do Canto e Castro, as well as in the role of leader of the Lusitanian Integralist movement, which Sidónio sought to coopt, Sardinha presented a powerful force in the Sidonist government.

    Sardinha found his primary rival in the form of the even younger Secretary of Finance, António de Oliveira Salazar, who argued that the Church should be allowed to fulfill its role as a social institution but that the political sphere must be kept independent of it. A gifted economist and political thinker, Salazar had emerged as one of Sidónio's favorites already in 1920, a year after he was appointed to his position at the stunningly young age of 30. Within a year, armed with extensive special powers, Salazar had balanced the budget and stabilized Portugal's currency, restored order to the national accounts, enforced austerity and greatly cut down of budgetary waste, and in the process created the first of many budgetary surpluses - an unparalleled novelty in Portugal, even as he handled the cartelisation of the Portuguese economy. Since their appointments, Salazar and Sardinha had grown into the two most powerful figures in the government besides Sidónio himself, with the former representing a state bureaucracy which sought to ever strengthen state power and authority while the later represented the ideological movements aligned behind Sidónio in the National Republican Party, which sought to create an ideologically-based Integralist state.

    Sidónio himself would maintain an impressive balance between the two, primarily allowing Salazar to take a lead on bureaucratic affairs while turning to Sardinha in order to boost popular support for the government while spreading the Integralist movement's ideology far and wide in an effort to develop political allies internationally. While there were Portuguese fears of their Spanish neighbors, Sidónio used the bonds developed by Sardinha to the Africanists to forge an alliance with King Alfonso, which would allow for the distraction of the Spanish monarch from the militarily weakened Portugal - first in Morocco and later in Italy and at home. With the Fall of Rome and French Exile of the Papacy, Sardinha excitedly sought to entice the Papacy to set up home in Portugal, only for Sidónio to prove reticent on the matter - stalling out negotiations long enough for Alfonso to swoop in and secure the Papcy for Spain, to the delight of not only Alfonso himself, but also Sidónio and Salazar - who felt that basing the papacy in Portugal would undermine government authority immensely.

    In the years that followed, Sidónio would prove himself a talented manipulator time and time again as he played not only the key figures of his government off against each other, preventing either from becoming a large enough threat for him to need to extinguish, but also his international allies. The large, powerful and ever-threatening Spain was allowed to take a front seat in the spread of Integralism for the formation of the Latin Pact, even as the Portuguese gradually turned their society and economy into the envy of Europe through major educational and industrial reforms which modernized large sections of Portuguese society. At the same time, he sponsored the backing of Old Republic Brazilians, Sidónio having hopes of restoring Brazil to the Lusitanian sphere of influence and seeing it as a suitable distraction for those Integralists chafing at the bit to spread their ideology in the face of the ever growing power of the state bureaucracy. Sidónio would hold regular elections in 1922 and 1926 , in which the National Republican Party and a bevy of ostensibly allied parties were elected in carefully stage-managed elections, before a constitutional reform in 1927 saw all parties officially merged with the National Republicans transforming Portugal into a one-party state (23).

    The Kingdom of Italy, compromised almost entirely by Sicily and Sardinia, finally began to emerge from the crisis in which it had been engulfed for years the consolidation of power under the Fascists led by Dino Grandi beginning in 1927. However, in contrast to both Spain and Portugal, where ruling power was firmly in the grip of King Alfonso and Sidónio Pais respectively, power and authority in the Kingdom of Italy would prove far more diffuse. Exceedingly reliant on the good will of the Mafia, principally led by Don Calogero Vizzini, although he faced rising challengers in the form of the business-minded Antonio Saitta in Catania and the revolutionary Don Vito Cascio Ferro of Corleone, demonstrating the divisions amongst the Mafiosi, Grandi also had to constantly deal with an unhappy royal house. The Savoys vastly preferred the more deferential royalists like Francesco Nitti and feared that Grandi might well do away with the monarchy in favour of a Sidonist-style Republic should he gain sufficient power to do so.

    As a result, Sicily came to be dominated by constant intrigues and political manoeuvres aimed at undermining the various rivalling factions, a state of affairs which the Mafia were happy to exploit, although even they increasingly succumbed to this factionalism as Antonio Saitta developed a relationship with the Royalists, growing into a prominent supporter of the Monarchy for which he was rewarded with the title of Count, while Don Cascio Ferro engaged heavily with peasant movements within Sicily and Sardinia while dominating the smuggling routs out of Messina which connected to the socialist mainland. Clashes between factions were common, with mafiosi serving as hired guns targeting political enemies on more than one occasion.

    Despite this anarchic situation, or perhaps even because of it, Sicily grew into the single greatest transshipment point for illicit goods in Europe and a key trading center for all Mediterranean trade. Mafiosi from Corleone shipped Hashish from Libya overland to Messina, where it went on to Italy proper through a vast network of fishing villages, while Opium from India would be picked up by Mafiosi of Catania in Egypt and sent on to the French Riviera. Contraband cigarettes and counterfeit goods made up yet another part of these shipping efforts, all of which were blended together with countless more legal shipments, bringing German goods out of Trieste to Barcelona or Greek olives to Barcelona. While the Sicilian state founds itself ever struggling to manage its finances, it swiftly became a hub for illicit transactions, with banks like HSBC, the Commerz- und Privat-bank AG and Paribas all establishing branches on Sicily and enjoying considerable profits from the shoddy state of financial regulations.

    Despite this situation, Dino Grandi dedicated himself to modernising and professionalising the state bureaucracy, as well as expanding it to fit the frame of a national government. He proved careful and measured, well aware of the weaknesses of his position and his need for calculated decision-making if he were to hold on to power. In the meanwhile, with the focus of the Kingdom centered so heavily on Sicily, Sardinia was largely left to run itself with neither help nor intervention from the central government. This paved the path for the Partito Sardo d'Azione, an autonomist regional party led by Emilio Lussu and formed from war veterans of the renowned Sassari Brigade, to emerge as the dominant force on the island.

    Exceedingly hostile to the Fascists, having evicted them from most towns on the island during the Civil War, the PSdA leaned far more towards a monarchist social democracy and mirrored themselves on the German SPD in many of their beliefs. While the remainder of Italy was engulfed in bloody strife for years on end, the Sardinians had cleared most socialists and fascists out within a couple months and remained out of the conflict for the most part. This had allowed them to focus on building a half-way self-sufficient economy and society for the back-water province, dredging swamps, constructing roads, developing a rudimentary social security system and creating a rudimentary modern school system while assimilating a variety of mainland Italian refugees who had chosen to make Sardinia their home after being forced from the mainland. All of these actions gradually turned Sardinia from a backwater into an energetic and engaged politically cohesive unit, powering forward into the next decade, with plans for further reforms and infrastructural projects (24).

    These successes naturally drew the interests of the ever cash-strapped government in 1931, resulting in the appointment of the 28-year old son of the Minister of the Navy, Gian Galeazzo Ciano, as Governor of Sardinia and his dispatch to the island alongside Brigadier Mario Roatta in order to ensure prompt and proper taxation of the island. Ciano's appointment drew widespread condemnation from most Sardinians, who had been making do with locally-elected representatives since the end of the Great War, and on his arrival in Cagliari Ciano was met with public protests and calls for he and the men dispatched with him to return to Sicily. Outraged, Ciano ordered Roatta to clear the city of the mob, resulting in the dispatch of the newly arrived military forces, who beat back the protestors. When the protests surged in response to the unwarranted violence the order was given by Roatta to fire upon the crowd, which dispersed in horror, returning to their homes blooded and scared, wherefrom word quickly spread across the island. Enraged by the act of senseless violence, Fusso called upon the various militia forces of the island to take up arms, surrounding the city of Cagliari on the 8th of October 1931 wherefrom they would exchange fire on a regular basis with Roatta's increasingly besieged forces.

    The situation having spun completely out of control, Ciano tried to quiet matters, but found the Sardinians unwilling to listen, causing him to send a dispatch back to Sicily asking for further instructions. However, soon after the message was dispatched, Ciano found himself the target of an assassination attempt by a Cagliarian baker whose son had been killed in the initial clash, which left the governor wounded and unable to control the situation. This left Brigadier Roatta ostensibly in charge. This would prove a grievous turn of affairs, for Roatta was certain that the baker was part of a larger force infiltrating the city from the countryside and as such began violent interrogations of anyone suspected of allegiance to the "rebels", a moniker which could be used for most of the city's population by Roatta's definition. As word of torture and degradation, as well as news that Roatta's men were taking liberties with Cagliarian women, spread to the surrounding militiamen, Fusso and the forces surrounding Cagliari found themselves forced into action - launching an attack on the barricades set up by Roatta's men. The bloody firefight soon expanded as Cagliarian citizens threw tiles and pots from their windows at the defenders and attacked squads as they were rushing from strong point to strongpoint. The situation for the defenders quickly turned dire, despite reaping hundreds of lives from the attackers, due to this fifth column, leading Roatta to order parts of the city set aflame to block the advance of Fusso and his men. In an increasingly dire position, Roatta and his men retreated towards the docks while the fires they had set grew increasingly out of control, forcing Fusso and his men to rush to aid in the firefighting efforts and allowing Roatta and his surviving men to evacuate onto the ships they had arrived in with the still heavily wounded Ciano. From there, they could only set sail for Sicily, cursing the barbaric Sardinians all the while.

    Word of the Cagliari Bloodbath drew international headlines and gave the Fascists, who had been behind the Sardinian effort, a massive black eye. Prince Umberto was dispatched as part of a committee to Sardinia to resolve the matter, ultimately resulting in the drumming out and imprisonment of Roatta and many of his men for their actions, while Ciano was reprimanded and placed on leave while he recovered from his wounds. Furthermore, the decision was made to end Sicilian involvement in Sardinian affairs - with Sardinia's autonomy formalized by a writ of parliament signed by the King, with the island set to possess a separate parliament and Premier answering only to the King - in effect forming two separate states tied together only by their head of state. Fusso emerged from the affair a Sardinian hero and was soon elected as first Prime Minister of Sardinia. In this post he would embark on an ambitious series of reforms while engaging diplomatically with Germany following the election of Otto Wels in 1932 in order to secure industrial advisors which would allow Sardinia to grow into its own (25).

    Footnotes:
    (15) I think it is necessary here to make clear some of the OTL political movements in Spain at the time and how some of TTL's divergences have impacted them. Carlism was a long-established political movement calling for the replacement of the dynasty under Alfonso with the legitimist line of the Borbons, who also happened to be claimants to the French throne through the legitimists at this point. However, Carlism developed a strong political ideology centred on ultra-Catholic Conservatism and Absolutism known in Spain as Tradicionalismo (Traditionalism). Traditionalism had various branches and experienced increasing divergences but was fundamentally undemocratic and ultra-reactionary. Divisions existed over the role of the monarchy, Catholicism, corporatism, the degree of centralisation and the degree of absolutism to mention a few factors.

    However, in this case the important part to note is that Mella was once one of the leading lights of the Carlist movement but after a progressively deteriorating relationship with the Carlist claimant Jaime (over issues centering on Mella's pro-German political stance on the Great War and his disillusionment with Jaime's leadership - particularly Jaime's lack of heirs and unwillingness to weigh in on the Carlist movement's political developments) eventually resulted in Mella and his supporters splitting from the Carlists. IOTL Mella struggled to find a path forward and gradually lost much of his support, culminating in him losing most of his political relevancy with the rise of Primo de Rivera, ending public life in 1924 and dying in 1928. ITTL Mella's prestige is significantly boosted by his pro-German stance following the Great War, and while his breech with the Carlists still happens he is able to draw more supporters with him as he throws his support behind King Alfonso's African adventures - in the process shifting his monarchical support from the Carlists to Alfonso. Thus, Alfonso is able to coopt a great many of the Carlists' political beliefs and gain the support of Mella and his supporters - who, in contrast to OTL, have only grown in popularity as people look across the border to Portugal and see the benefits a similar regime has had there. Mella then becomes a key actor in Alfonso's coup and becomes his first partner in government thereafter, serving as an enabler of the King's political programmes. Should mention that both Florida and Chicharro are particularly prominent governmental figures because Mella is very sick with diabetes essentially the entire time he is Prime Minister.

    (16) IOTL King Alfonso had seen Silvestre as one of his greatest tools for strengthening his power (Alfonso honestly seems to have been a bit sociopathic, when he heard that Silvestre, who he had otherwise held as one of his favorite generals, had died at the Battle of Annual he was playing golf. On learning of the news he simply shrugged his shoulders and said "Chicken meat is cheap" - indicating that there were plenty more where Silvestre came from - before resuming his game of golf. And that was a guy he supposedly really liked. He was a cold, cold man.) and with his survival he continues to invest in him. Silvestre seems to have been almost fanatically loyal to Alfonso, whereas Primo de Rivera, who IOTL took the top spot in the army, had been a consistent critic of Alfonso's African adventures despite ostensibly being part of the Africanist clique. That is why Silvestre ascends while Rivera falls precipitously. As to Sanjurjo and Berenguer, they were prominent Africanists who displayed their talents well and were strongly monarchist in convictions - particularly Sanjurjo was a hardcore royalist. It is worth noting that Sanjurjo and Berenguer are not on particularly good terms with each other, and view the other as a rival, but both are content to remain under Silvestre's direction. The goal for me with these changes is to give Alfonso a significantly stronger grip on the military than he had IOTL, with its leaders all being prominent royalists and lacking the same level of ambition that de Rivera exhibited.

    (17) While the left-wing was worried about the 1924 coup, they were not prepared for how swift the crackdown would be when it finally happened. The period between the coup and the left-wing crackdown is long enough for the left to find itself lulled into a feeling of false security, which makes the actual move by the government come as such a surprise. Additionally, Alfonso and his supporters are able to exert a surprising level of operational security which ensures that word does not get out before the arrests begin. The speed with which the crackdown then occurs comes as a surprise for all, with even the government surprised by how cleanly it played out. We have seen these sorts of events happen IOTL as well, Nazi Germany and Pinochet's Chile are the two examples which come immediately to my mind, so it should be plausible and while the Spanish authorities were usually not quite so efficient or effective it bears reminding that Alfonso and his supporters have had time to secure control of the various institutions and place people loyal to them before the crackdown occurred, so it goes more smoothly than most other such efforts.

    (18) While IOTL national syndicalism in Spain came about in the 1930s as a response to the rise of the anarchist movement, ITTL it occurs under somewhat different circumstances. My understanding is that Mellismo had at least some elements of corporatist syndicalism which, with the wider proliferation of Anarcho-Communism and a broader base of far-right movements without the Fascists to draw everyone's attentions, should make it a relatively easy transition to a fully national syndicalist model of society. We already have some of those elements in Portugal, with cartelisation and subsequent developments (which I will get into later in the update), as well as the pre-existing integralist movement in Spain so I hope that this development makes sense. I decided to use Associations as the term of choice rather than unions, syndicates or the like for these corporatist organizational structures mostly because it seemed like one of the least aggressive terms available. Spanish or Borbon Integralism, as the ideology will become known, is notable for this reliance on Associations as the organizing unit of society, with people being part of several associations based on neighborhood, work and religious affiliation (although these religious Associations mostly become a vehicle for discrimination since all "ordinary" associations are by definition Catholic and are likely to see greater resource investment) organized at various levels. These associations, while allowing for a stronger communal voice, are much easier to subvert and direct on the part of the state, than a more disorganized state system and as such are another vehicle whereby the government strengthens its grip on power. It should, however, be mentioned that the implementation of this national syndicalist societal model takes a great deal of time and while the work on it begins in 1925, it will take until the early 1930s before it is properly up and running.

    (19) I am basing this economic progress on similar developments IOTL during the dictatorship of Prime de Rivera, although the Alphonsine reforms likely boost them further alongside the general greater prosperity of TTL compared to OTL caused by the different international economic situation and given that Spain was able to avoid a lot of political instability ITTL. Many of these reforms are based at least in part on OTL efforts undertaken either under Franco or Primo de Rivera. Additionally, taking into account the greater stability of Spain ITTL and the economic progress that was already under way, I think this is a plausible direction for events to take. There are benefits to cartelisation when seeking to move forward with a organised and efficient industrialisation - as can be seen in Germany pre-Great War and in South Korea post-Korean War.

    (20) I know people are probably wondering about the political strife these constant crackdowns might have caused, and there are some intermittent protests and demonstrations, but Alfonso has largely decapitated the left-wing, which had the majority of popular support, and he was originally believed to be an ally by the Liberals who are left disoriented by his sudden turn. Alfonso's crackdowns are always carefully managed and targeted to exploit factionalism and divisions within the various movements they target. The most important thing to take away from this is that Alfonso has just about cut out any possible contenders for power other than the general public, and they have largely been pacified through economic growth, a constant bombardment of propaganda propagated by state institutions and the church across Spain and the pre-existing deference to royalty present in the general public, it is important to note that Alfonso has not had the same sort of bad press as IOTL and as such maintains decent public backing. While the Riffan Campaign was unpopular, its success largely vindicated Alfonso's stance and without the rather tactless comment about Silvestre he also avoids coming across as coldhearted. He is looked upon as a harsh, but trustworthy, ruler who has the best of intentions towards Spain and its people. I should also note the emergence of an increasingly complex and sophisticated secret police force under Mola which, while no where near as sophisticated as the Nazi or Soviet states of OTL, still prove a boon to strengthening the power of the state. Furthermore, Mola and his men are still learning, give them time and they might grow even more worrying.

    (21) This section deals primarily with which figures will dominate Spanish and Church politics in the coming decade. Chicharro was a prominent Mellista before reconciling with the Carlists IOTL. He was quite hotheaded, to the point that he ended up in a brawl with a union leader during the 1923 elections which culminated in him bashing the man in the head so hard with a stick that the union leader had to be hospitalised. However, he was a talented political mind who was able to continually involve himself in Catholic and Carlist, but continually stumbled over his own feet the moment he started securing some backing. Here, his OTL close ties to Mella help him immensely to ingratiate himself with Alfonso and his willingness to be subservient to Alfonso in whatever the King demands makes him the perfect strawman to take center stage for the King - at least at first. Ultimately, as Chicharro gets his feet under him and begins to express independent political beliefs, most problematically his OTL dislike for political centralization, he falls out with the King. IOTL Chicharro was of poor health generally and a dedicated chain-smoker who ultimately died of tuberculosis in 1934, ITTL that weakening health is seized upon by Alfonso to get rid of an increasingly problematic ally in favor of the more agreeable Florida. In this section we also see the formation of the Latin Pact, as the alliance of integralist nations will come to be known. Finally, we see the death of Pope Gregory and the election of his successor, Pius XI, who is in many ways a more activist integralist than Gregory was.

    (22) This is not so much a retcon of previous events in the TL, but rather a more detailed explanation of Sidonio's stabilisation of power. The key thing to note here is that particularly the monarchist revolt in northern Portugal falls apart far quicker than IOTL because of the lack of Sidonists to back up the movement ITTL. Second, the Bloody Night occurs under significantly different circumstances from OTL and with a shift in goals. ITTL the attempt is about pulling a man viewed as a tyrant from power after his failure to hold elections in 1921, as many were demanding he do, and simultaneously an effort on the part of some in the military to remove a man many think wants to bring them to heel. Ultimately, this belief proves correct and Sidónio subordinates the military to the civilian government to what is probably an excessive extent. It is worth noting here that Sidónio is well aware what this may hamstring military capabilities, but that he views it as a necessary step to ensure his hold on power.

    (23) The main thing to take away from all of this is that the Sidonist State which is emerging, while appearing fully united to the outside world, is actually quite divided. Perhaps the most important thing about this division is that it is between the Bureaucracy under Salazar and the Party under Sardinha, with Sidónio deftly positioned atop both, playing them off against each other. This is a feat which requires immense political talent, which Sidónio has shown himself to possess, which makes him vital to the continued functioning of the state. I am drawing quite widely for inspiration here, not only borrowing the views and some of the structures from Salazar, who basically did away with the political sphere entirely in favor of a bureaucratic authoritarian state, but also from Sardinha's OTL beliefs in the involvement of the Church in political affairs. The two young men are in many ways diametrical opposites of each other, one a fiery ideologue and the other a coldblooded bureaucrat, but by tying the two together Sidónio is able to get the best of both worlds - the populist following and political engagement of the Integralists and the competent statecraft of the Estado Novo. I also just want to clarify that when I say the Envy of Europe, I am being a bit hyperbolic, but many are looking to the developments in Portugal and seeing a stable, rapidly growing state emerge from the chaos of the First Republic - and want a piece of that.

    (24) The Kingdom of Italy really is not in a particularly good place, but they are able to find some semblance of normalcy despite the circumstances. I should mention that Don Cascio Ferra was deeply involved in the American Mafia IOTL, and was ITTL as well up until the crackdown on Italian gangs in the United States made such efforts less worthwhile. Instead he turns towards Sicilian matters proper, securing control of Messina through judicious alliances with local Mafia clans to dominate trade with Socialist Italy. It is worth noting that Cascio Ferra was involved with the revolutionary Sicilian Legions IOTL at the turn of the century, and as such I see him as the most likely figure to develop good relations with the criminal underworld of Socialist Italy. We also get some clarity about the role of the monarchy and the clashes which they have had consistently with the Fascists, and how that is mirrored amongst their affiliated Mafiosi. Finally, we get an introduction to Sardinia where, in contrast to everywhere else, things are going fine and dandy. Much like IOTL, there is a strong shift towards autarky in Sardinia during this period and with the Fascists unable to quite secure their grip on power like IOTL, ITTL the Sardinian Action Party is able to emerge as the dominant force on the island, leading it on the path towards autonomy and autarky while drawing ideological inspiration from the SPD. It is worth noting that many of the efforts mentioned here are underfinanced and rudimentary, far from the universal programs that the inhabitants might hope for, but they are nevertheless impressive achievements by the island's population.

    (25) Given the development of Sardinia I was unable to see how the Sicilians would leave matters alone, and under such circumstances I felt that this was the most interesting path forward. Ciano does not come out of this particularly well, but I think it is worth noting that he is young and this is one of his first postings so when he makes an ill considered decision in anger at the protests he had no expectation of events exploding like they did. From there on, it is Roatta who really takes center stage and considering Roatta's nickname IOTL was The Black Beast, given for the horrific shit he did IOTL in Yugoslavia, I don't think this is too far out of his wheelhouse. All-in-all the matter is both a political and diplomatic disaster which sees ties between Sicily and Sardinia reduced by an incredible degree. It is worth mentioning that even with its own parliament and prime minister, Sardinia remains a part of the Kingdom of Italy. In fact, Prince Umberto ends up stationed there full-time and is granted the title of Prince of Sardinia to strengthen the ties of the island to the monarchy. The Fascists come out of this whole matter looking very bad, and find themselves forced to give ground to the royalists to a much greater extent after having briefly seen an opportunity to secure great prestige in Sardinia.

    533px-J._Ramsay_MacDonald_LCCN2014715885_%28cropped%29.jpg

    James Ramsey MacDonald, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

    The Troubles A Bureaucracy Can Bring​

    Following the bitter blows dealt to Ramsey MacDonald's government in late 1929 by the Conservatives, it found itself increasingly mired in a bureaucratic backlash while fighting a public war of words with the opposition parties for their bad faith acts. During the preceding nearly three years, Labour had been gradually strengthening its grip on a state bureaucracy staffed by establishment figures associated with either the Liberals or Conservatives. As such, when Labour had made its various appointments these men of the Labour Party suddenly found themselves placed atop a wary and, at times, hostile bureaucratic edifice which had previously dedicated itself to keeping socialists out of government.

    There was a natural clash of ideologies as a result, more so in some quarters than in others, but without a doubt the ministries which experienced the greatest degree of strife would prove to be the Foreign Secretariat, the Civil Service and the Treasury, directed by Norman Fenwick Warren Fisher - the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, Under-Secretary to the Foreign Office and first-ever Head of the Home Civil Service. Fisher, used his positions in the Civil Service, Foreign Office and Treasury to hinder the progress of the Labour government at numerous instances, having expanded his grip on power from the Treasury into the two latter offices during the preceding decade. A man of formidable authority and ambition, Fisher was the single-most powerful man in the British state bureaucracy by the time of the Labour government's rise to power and proved a steadfast opponent to MacDonald and his fellow labour politicians. With the legislative path increasingly shut down by Conservative fear-mongering, the government had turned to the state institutions themselves to push forward their plans, increasingly exasperated with the obstructionism they were facing (26).

    MacDonald had remained steadfast in his efforts to normalise Labour as a proper ruling party in preceding years, much to the anger of many in the party but, with the situation increasingly gridlocked by partisanship and bureaucratic intransigence, he came under the sway of figures such as Oswald Mosley, Aneurin Bevan and Charles Simmons, who advocated a significant political shift to the left by the government and an end to the conciliatory approach MacDonald had been dedicated to previously. After a good deal of back and forth within government ranks, it was determined that the only path forward was to strengthen Labour's governmental mandate. As a result, Labour representatives in obstructionist governmental departments began to replace meddlesome officials at a rapidly growing rate, finding a wide variety of increasingly incongruous grounds to justify their actions, while filling these new openings with solidly working-class figures.

    This approach would prove particularly heavy-handed in the Foreign Office, where dozens of officials were dismissed after their unauthorized financial spending on particularly Pessian Persia and in Africa came to the attention of the Labour appointees at the top. With his position under open assault, Fisher turned to the Conservatives and the Media for support, escalating the ongoing war of words, while Labour-aligned journalists emphasized the immense sums "wasted" by the various departments on far-flung colonial outposts which offered little other than competition to the British working classes. This brewing storm finally reached a climax when the Conservative leader Stanley Baldwin's own son, Oliver Baldwin, publicly called out his father's actions in hindering good government.

    Enraged at this turn of events, Stanley Baldwin pushed forward with a vote-of-no-confidence in late 1930. The resultant vote, occurring under immensely tense circumstances on the 8th of October 1930, saw the use of numerous unsavoury methods, from veterans marching through the streets not far from Whitehall, to a constant barrage of smears in right-wing publications and immense peer pressure upon the most moderate members of the Labour Party. This would culminate in a successful vote, resulting in the fall of MacDonald's government and the issuing of new elections for November. This result saw a significant hardening of Labour attitudes towards the establishment and a strengthening of the party's left-wing. The elections would prove amongst the most bitter in modern British history, with worker-affiliated street gangs clashing violently with veterans bands while both the left- and right-wing presses printed broadsides aimed at each other night-and-day. Finally, election day came on the 3rd of November. The result was a rout of the Conservatives. With the Conservatives increasingly associated with violence, corruption and dirty dealings, they saw their support shrink significantly while Labour was able to expand its seats by a measured amount and retained governmental authority. However, the great victor in all of this would be the party which had remained above the fray, the resurgent Liberal Party (27).

    The Liberal Party had experienced something of a nadir following the dissolution of Lloyd George's government in 1921, split between Lloyd George's and Asquith's respective factions of the party. In the years which followed, the Liberal Party had been pushed to the sidelines as the struggle for control of the party continued unabated between the two factions. Ultimately, the matter was decided in large part by Asquith's death in 1928, the continued division having made electoral results in 1927 something of a farce, while Lloyd George's own reputation, both from his failures in managing the post-war crises and the leadership struggle with Asquith, made him an unsuited candidate for leadership of the party.

    It was at this exact time, as leadership of the party remained uncertain and factional strife threatened to erupt once more, that the Conservatives split between Liberal and Unionist wings exploded and the Unionists emerged victorious. The result was a slow exodus of Liberal Conservatives from the Conservative Party proper, most of which initially formed minor political parties to oppose this new unionist surge before finding themselves the target of significant entreaties by the Liberal Party. This was to result in the watershed arrival of the Liberal Conservatives to the Liberal Party in 1929. This group would include not only former Prime Minister Austen Chamberlain and his brother Neville, but also Lord Robert Cecil, F.E. Smith and numerous other former luminaries of the Conservative Party. With the arrival of these figures, Winston Churchill soon emerged as one of the most prominent leaders in the party, having close ties to both the Liberal Conservatives and the Lloyd George Liberals, and came to be seen in many ways as the direct successor to Lloyd George within the party.

    Thus, by the time of the 1930 elections, Winston Churchill went into the election raring for a fight, hoping to use the situation to solidify his leadership over the party, and when the results came back positive, the Liberals suddenly exploding past the Conservatives to become the official Opposition Party, Churchill's role was further solidified. Central to Churchill's successes in this period was his decision to directly address the feelings of domestic and foreign malaise and worry which had increasingly crept over Britain in the Post-War years.

    The constant feeling of rushing from crisis to crisis, of economic hardship and bitter partisanship, of an Empire ever under threat of dissolution, had left the British peoples with a feeling of an Empire under siege. Anschluss gave Germany a port in the Adriatic, from which they had proven themselves capable of hindering British naval efforts in the Mediterranean during the Italian and Austro-Hungarian Civil Wars, the rise of powerful authoritarian governments in Portugal and Spain - who could threaten passage through the Strait of Gibraltar, as well as the deterioration of the long-lived Anglo-Portuguese relationship all opened up for the specter of an unmanageable crisis in the Mediterranean. Even more horrifying was the emergence of an active and present Communist threat to the Mediterranean in the form of Socialist Italy, whose geopolitical threat was evenly matched with its ideological threat, and the expansion of the Soviet Republic to the Pacific. At the same time, while the signing of a trade deal with the United States had allowed for the economy to restart and significantly reduced the burden of debt from the Great War, it also opened up the colonies to competition with British corporations, who now found themselves pressured even in their formerly captive markets. Growing hostility in the relationship with France and the ever-present threat of the titanic Teuton empire at the heart of Europe caused uncertainties and fear in the minds of many while the relationships with Britain's colonies and dominions seemed ever more unstable.

    To Churchill, it seemed that the British governments of the past decade had failed to do anything to address any of these issues, and that only with a firm hand could Britain restore itself to its position in the sun. Only with a robust, reformative outset and a strong dedication to the restoration of the Empire could Britain return to its former heights, and only with the Liberals at the forefront would that be possible, Labour having proven itself unable to govern properly while the Conservatives had proven themselves unworthy of governing (28).

    The Labour Party which emerged from the 1930 elections would prove to be far more united and considerably more left-wing than the government that had preceded it. There were several major changes in appointments, most significantly the appointment of Oswald Mosley as Under-Secretary of State for the Colonies and Aneurin Bevan as Under-Secretary of the Home Department - setting in motion Labour's bid to secure control over the British state bureaucracy. Barely a week after securing his appointment from the queen, MacDonald had Norman Fisher dismissed from his posts in all three offices, which was soon followed by a wholesale dismissal of his cronies within government structures, an effort which would continue throughout the following years, as Fisher had had a long time to build up institutional support across the state bureaucracies. Known as the Fisher Purge, this was to be the first indicator that Labour was approaching government in a wholly new light. With Fisher gone, resistance to Labour policies by government officials became significantly more diffuse and uncoordinated, with many simply ending their opposition for fear of dismissal. The numerous openings which thus appeared across government offices were filled mostly by people from middle and working-class families, many of whom were qualified for their positions but some of whom would prove unqualified to deal with the immense burdens of government.

    Nevertheless, the MacDonald government went into the new decade with great hopes. As their first order of business they pushed forward welfare reforms which had been stymied in 1929 now that the Conservative pushback had turned anemic, while preparing for a slate of new reforms of both economic and social orientations. The age of marriage was raised to 16, a minimum wage for agricultural workers was implemented, reforms in mental treatment saw the term "asylum" replaced with "mental hospital" as well as the implementation of voluntary admission and outpatient treatment by mental hospitals, the reform of unemployment insurance to cover a larger segment of the population was set in motion and many more initiatives were laid out. The implementation of government policy increasingly picked up speed as bureaucratic wrangling eased, although implementation proved troublesome given the large number of inexperienced new bureaucrats who had been placed in their positions recently.

    Great Britain as a whole saw limited growth in the economy which, while hopeful, left many wanting for more. Corporate Britain found its international markets threatened by the growth of American and German economies, while the increasing industrialization of many European nations meant a further decrease in British market share and growing competition. While the general economic prosperity of the period did result in the opening up of new market segments, with particularly the increase in global consumption allowing British industry to find new outlets, there was no doubt that Britain was no longer the global Superpower of years past.

    Nevertheless, Britain also saw a reenergizing of significant parts of its society as women, having been granted the vote, exerted an ever greater influence in political, economic and domestic affairs, while the rise of the Labour Party to power led to an energitic and increasingly demanding working class which looked to improve their social standing. Social divides were weakened as deference towards aristocracy and established authority in general weakened, while traditional restraints on moral behavior were loosened, particularly amongst young Britons, who gave themselves over to the fast life in London and the other great cities of Britain. Religiosity experienced a significant decline during this period, with a precipitous fall in membership to the Church of England, worsened in 1927 when a reform of the 1662 Book of Common Prayer resulted in bitter divisions within the Church as efforts to incorporate Anglo-Catholicism into the Church of England met with fierce denunciations by Evangelicals within the Church and Nonconformists outside it - ultimately resulting in a compromise prohibiting both radical and Anglo-Catholic practices in 1931.

    With the falling price of coal, resulting from global overproduction, economic strife haunted Wales in particular, requiring governmental intervention in 1928, 1930 and 1931 and several rounds of government subsidies. While strikes proved a common occurrence in these years, the government's alignment with the working class would see numerous employers forced to give important concessions to local unions and workers - particularly within the coal industry, to the bitter frustration of those owners. The result was an increasing shuttering of coal mines, as the industry came under ever greater pressure, and a resultant slow but steady growth in Welsh unemployment which placed ever greater pressure on the government, with voices in the Labour Party increasingly speaking for nationalisation of the troubled industries (29).

    The Ireland which emerged from the troubles of the start of the 1920s was one marked by considerable depression - economic, social and cultural. The devastation of Ireland during the extended conflict proved vast and far-ranging, touching the lives of every Irishman to one degree or another. The total victory of the British, the seemingly-permanent end of Home Rule and the continued bitterness which resulted would leave the island a sullen and gloomy place which British troops dreaded being stationed in. The period saw a major exodus of Irish seeking refuge in the Americas, with a vast variety of Irish-American organisations, primarily in the United States, Mexico and Argentina, recruiting and funding transportation across the Atlantic.

    These ties with the United States in particular would only deepen in the years to come as promoters of Irish culture shifted their operations across the Atlantic for fear of British persecutions. Such persecutions proved common in this period, as the use of the Irish language in any official context was expressly forbidden and the publishing and distribution of writings in the language were prohibited. The British attitude towards Ireland had undergone drastic changes because of the campaign of terror launched in England, with most political parties coming to the conclusion that the Irish simply could not be trusted to manage their own affairs, even the Labour Party coming to this determination after considerable debate.

    While the south of Ireland fell into a deep malaise and depression, northern Ireland, where Unionist sentiments had remained strong and forces had been mustered to combat the IRA, would find its development much smoother. As the industrial heartland of Ireland, the region would see continued, and even expanded, investments which would cause an ever greater economic divide between the two regions. The Fall of Rome, and the further devastation of the Catholic Church during the 1920s, would send turmoil and waves of conflict through an already battered Irish Catholic Church, culminating in the formation of a rival church structure following the Revolutionary Catholic Church doctrines in 1931 under the leadership of Archbishop Edward Joseph Byrne of Dublin, whose societal focus and concerns led him to reject the increasingly conservative and integralist Papal Catholic Church. This split, and the countless church spats which had preceded it over issues ranging from support or opposition to the Irish Revolt and stance on how to react to the Fall of Rome to whether the Church should embrace the Papacy's shift towards integralism and how to manage relations with the British, resulted in constant and furious infighting within the sole remaining institution from which opposition to British rule might have emerged.

    As Irish communities entrenched themselves further across the Atlantic, they increasingly found themselves able to turn their attentions back towards their homeland - resulting in a gradual growth in remittances which helped bring some economic security to the south of the island. The cause of Ireland was trumpeted far and wide in the Americas, with significant political support for the cause being rallied by figures such as Michael Collins, Eamon de Valera, Frank Aiken and Cathal Brugha who had built domestic and international renown as dashing revolutionaries fighting the British oppressors. Particularly Collins and Aiken emerged as leaders of these efforts, not only whipping up support in America, but also directing remittances, financing immigration to the Americas and playing at political influencing.

    Throughout this period they also financed the smuggling and distribution of illicit writings back to Ireland with the aim of rebuilding the independence movement step-by-step. By the turn of the decade, such efforts finally began to give some results, with minor acts of sabotage occurring on a semi-regular basis across Ireland while membership in secret pro-Independence clubs rose. Select prospects were even smuggled out of the country to America, where they were given military training by veterans of the Revolt and indoctrinated in the Irish cause before they were returned to Ireland to serve the cause as recruiters and subversives to British rule. British responses to such efforts continued to follow a hard line, with several hundred people imprisoned on sedition charges and many more on a host of other more minor charges, rarely directly related to their support for the Irish cause, but nevertheless used as an opportunity to remove troublemakers from circulation. However, the public message remained that the Revolt had been defeated and Ireland restored to peacefulness, with nothing to worry about for the British public (30).

    Despite all these internal matters, the issue which would prove the most significant for Britain in the years following the 1930 election would be foreign policy and colonial relations. First of all was the issue of the United States. As a long-time friendly power and recent ally in the Great War, one would have expected that the relationship between the two Anglophone nations was a happy one, but the course of the Great War, which had seen both parties come out of it worse for wear and the seeming betrayal of American idealism at the Copenhagen Conference, and American support for the Irish Revolt had caused fissures in the relationship which proved difficult to address. While the shift in American politics associated with the rise of the Ku Klux Klan and the increasingly rabid anti-Catholic sentiments of significant portions of the American government eased the pressure on this relationship, the undoubtable presence of significant Irish American influence in political and law-enforcement circles in the United States which enabled interference by the Irish Nationalist movement in Irish affairs caused the continual emergence of diplomatic incidents between the two states.

    Of even greater significance to the British was the relationship to the Sidonist government in Portugal and the wider Latin Pact who lay across the vital artery controlling trade from Britain to Asia and presented an ever-present threat to British power and authority in the Mediterranean. Particularly Portugal, which had maintained a close alliance with Britain for centuries, was of concern as distrust of Sidónio Pais pervaded the Foreign Office given its key role in the rise of Integralism and important position on the sea routes into the Mediterranean. Relations with the Vatican and Spain proved troubled, with Gibraltar an ever-present thorn in diplomatic affairs with the latter while the situation in Ireland troubled the former.

    The relationship with France was perhaps amongst the most complex at the time, as French responses to British entreaties had been marked primarily by harsh opposition to British influence in French affairs. Nevertheless, the two nations had cooperated on numerous occasions, in Sicily, Croatia and the Don Republic most prominently, and saw a united front against the German Empire as vital to the continued national security of both states. While the Socialists in mainland Italy were ignored by diplomatic staff, the presence of this threatening Communist state at the heart of the Mediterranean nevertheless presented a continual pressure on diplomatic affairs in the region and warped all diplomatic considerations related to southern Europe. By contrast, German relations were tense but cordial, with the Germans seen by many as the greatest threat facing the United Kingdom militarily, economically and diplomatically - most prominently seen with the inroads made by the Germans in Iberia and Arabia.

    The ascension of the Labour government had seen the start of bitter feuding and infighting within the Colonial Office, which only escalated after the 1930 elections as Oswald Mosley improved Labour's grip on the Colonial Office while alienating relations with colonial and dominion administrations around the globe, most prominently in India where the treatment of their Foreign and Colonial Office fellows absolutely outraged the sitting administration - who did everything in their power to muddy the waters and prevent the Colonial Office from exerting influence on Indian affairs. The result of this was the neglect of South Mesopotamia until the situation spun completely out of control and required significant efforts to resolve. Fearing that blame would fall upon Labour for the handling of the crisis, Mosley, who was named Secretary of the Foreign Office in early 1932, decided to shift blame onto the Ottomans - leading a rapidly growing public campaign of blame upon the one-time Sick Man of Europe. As matters escalated, MacDonald at the behest of Mosley and other Labour figures decided to issue the January Demands, setting in motion the Two Rivers Crisis (31).

    Footnotes:
    (26) Norman Fisher was an incredibly powerful governmental bureaucrat IOTL, dominating the Treasury and Civil Service from 1919 till 1939. While IOTL he tried to constantly grow his influence in the Foreign Office, he met with consistent failure. ITTL, the Liberal Conservative government of Austen Chamberlain ends up being what allows him to expand his influence there, making him even more powerful and forceful in his command of the bureaucracy.

    (27) Oswald Mosley and the others mentioned in this section were all part of the New Party established after the rejection of Mosley's Memorandum IOTL. IOTL Mosley had a close relationship with MacDonald, but ended up clashing with the wider party over their consistent unwillingness to shift further to the left. ITTL these events play out somewhat later than IOTL and the MacDonald government is actually quite a bit stronger than IOTL. As such, Mosley and company's arguments make a greater impact and they are able to help push the party onto a more confrontational path forward. It should be mentioned that the MacDonald government is actually very popular even after Baldwin and company forced them to a halt in Parliament. Therefore, this entire affair ends up making the Conservatives look even worse than they did after the Channel Tunnel Scandal, particularly since we now have the party leadership directly involved. Oliver Baldwin was a Socialist IOTL and apparently quite prone to criticizing his father, so I felt that it wouldn't be too far out of character for him to go ham here. Baldwin views this as part of a wider Socialist effort to turn his own son against him, and is thus willing to perhaps go a bit further than he should have. Ultimately, this entire affairs proves a disaster to the Conservatives and a major boon to the Liberals.

    (28) An initial note that I have retconned Churchill's involvement in the Unionist leadership and membership in the Conservative Party after further consideration - the details of how Churchill left the Liberals for the Conservatives IOTL just do not quite match up ITTL. Churchill remained a committed Lloyd George Liberal ITTL, and followed him when he left government. Churchill voted largely in support of Austen Chamberlain's policies during the following Liberal Strife, and had quite good relations with them as a result. IOTL the Liberals also ended up in a knock-down, drag out brawl between Lloyd George and Asquith, finding a brief period of unity under Lloyd George upon Asquith's death, only for failure to win the 1929 elections on a Keynesian platform to drag Lloyd George from leadership. The subsequent brawl over whether to support MacDonald's second Labour government in 1931 resulted in the total splintering of the Liberals and paved the path to its collapse. So many of those factors were bound up in not only Lloyd George's emergence from the post-war period at least somewhat vindicated (which he isn't ITTL) and the impact of the Great Depression kicking off - which hasn't happened either ITTL. Instead, the Liberals experience a rallying to the flag effect when the Liberal Conservatives depart the Conservative Party, ultimately for the Liberal Party. Churchill ITTL has had nearly a decade in which to cement himself as Lloyd George's right-hand man and successor, and as such is nowhere near as controversial a choice as he might initially seem. Great Britain has not had a good time of things ITTL, and it has left a definite mark on British society and culture. The seemingly constant crises and the increasingly precarious situation Britain finds itself in has placed a significant toll on many in the Empire - and there are not a great deal of accomplishments in the past decade of which most British can feel proud. I personally think that under such circumstances, an ideological construction like that Churchill might formulate under such circumstances could find quite a lot of support. It builds on a hopeful Liberal Imperialism, which has already seen significant success in India, and a commitment to returning to the "good old days" of the pre-war era, when an increasingly populist Liberal Party was creating a Britain to be proud of.

    (29) All is not fine and dandy in Albion, but things aren't completely terrible either. Labour is less restrained, but still proves itself unwilling to push all the way towards nationalisation - although there are increasing numbers of people arguing for the nationalisation of the coal industry and other more extreme measures. The purge of government rolls is largely ignored by wider society, but draws bitter recrimination from the ranks of government bureaucrats and members of the establishment, who view these policies as extremely detrimental to good governance. Britain remains in this stagnant haze which has characterised the preceding decade, but there are signs of shifts and there are elements of society which are increasingly active. I think it is worth noting the stark differences in the approaches taken by the British Labour Party and the German SPD who, while ostensibly holding similar ideological positions, are exerting their power and influence in significantly different ways. The Prayer Book Crisis is OTL, but in contrast to OTL where the conflict was resolved in 1929, here it takes an additional two years because the struggle with the Conservatives takes up so much of the government's efforts that the matter is put on ice - with the result that even more people leave the Church compared to OTL.

    (30) Ireland is not exactly in a good place and Home Rule remains suspended indefinitely, with the support of the vast majority of Britons. Furthermore, the Catholic Church in Ireland is in deep trouble, mired in division and infighting, preventing them from exerting any significant political or social influence as a result. However, the independence movement remains alive, if in exile, and efforts are being undertaken to maintain it in Ireland until another opportunity should present itself. It is worth mentioning that Ireland has been fought to exhaustion, not convinced that their cause was in the wrong, and as such, while active support for independence has largely died off, there are immense numbers of Irish who would support independence should a push it occur again. Hell, anti-British sentiments are higher than at any point in recent years given the harsh reprisals of the British.

    (31) Here we see that there is a bit more to the British demands than just an overbearing attitude. The way the South Mesopotamia Famine unfolds is extremely damaging to Labour, as it demonstrates a point which both the Conservatives and Liberals have been hammering at non-stop, namely that they are unsuited to managing the grand affairs of international diplomacy and colonial management (ignoring the sheer obstructionist chaos unleashed by the government bureaucracy all-the-while) and that you need sober minds like those in the more established parties to manage affairs properly. Here Labour tries to undo the horrid image they have gained from mismanaging the famine by throwing the blame upon the Ottomans while hoping that they will collapse like a house of cards.

    Summary:
    Germany experiences a breakdown of its more radical factions to infighting and unpopularity while the SPD rises to ever greater power and authority, culminating in becoming the leader of the governmental coalition.
    In France, the deteriorating center of politics results in ever greater polarization and intercine political conflict
    The countries of the Latin Pact consolidate their holds on power by various means, fair and foul, while seeking to improve their economic, social and diplomatic status. Pope Gregory VII dies and is succeeded by Pope Pius XI.
    The British Labour Party struggles with constant bureaucratic infighting even as they consolidate their influence over governmental institutions while suppressing the Irish and seeking to resolve mismanagement of their colonial affairs.

    End Note:

    This is the first of the really long updates, of which many more are to come, whereas the first part of this update was more in line with the preceding sections. There is a lot of ground to cover with the Latin Pact, so I hope things were covered sufficiently for everyone to catch the various developments. One of the fun things to come out of this TL is how multifaceted the ideologies are proving to be, both Communism and Integralism. Where IOTL we had these very clear Communist and Fascist ideologies, with mostly minor deviations from either, ITTL there are multiple powerful strains of ideology which cooperate and intermingle, but are independent entities. Spanish Integralism is very different from Sidonism, which is in turn divergent from Fascism or the French Integralism of Action Francaise. Italian Communism is a different beast from Soviet Communism, which is different from East Asian Communism - be it of Indochinese, Chinese or Japanese flavor. That is something I really want to emphasize and explore with the TL.

    Secondly, we have Britain where hopefully the rather reckless response to the Two Rivers Crisis now makes a bit more sense. I know that I am over-emphasizing the impact of specific factors - but imagine that there are various supporting currents adding on to the bureaucratic pressures which I couldn't get into but are still present, underlying everything.

    Hope you all enjoyed, this is one of the updates I rather enjoyed writing, particularly the section on the Latin Pact.
     
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    Update Thirty-Two (Pt. 1): Balanced On The Edge
  • Balanced On The Edge

    515px-AbdulmecidII.jpg

    Abdulmejid II Osmanli, Sultan and Caliph of the Ottoman Empire

    Balkan Quiescence​

    Few countries saw their political autonomy undermined as significantly as Romania in the post-war years. The defeat and resultant Treaty of Bucharest had placed Romania under what was effectively German vassalage and into the hands of King Carol II, a man widely despised by the upper classes for his hedonism, passion for lower-class women and narcissistic arrogance, and who was viewed as many as having betrayed the country by signing the Treaty of Bucharest, in the process wresting the crown from his father. While Prime Minister Alexandru Marghiloman had handled the immediate transition towards peacetime well, with the support and guidance of German advisors, he despised the situation that Romania found itself in and retired soon after the Treaty of Copenhagen sealed his country's fate. This led directly to the first Romanian elections undertaken with universal suffrage and German control, with the People's Party led by the former general and war hero Alexandru Averescu securing a plurality of the vote, closely followed by the National Liberal Party, one of the two great parties of the pre-war era with the Conservatives, while a host of lesser parties made up the rest of the seats in parliament ranging from splinter factions of the Conservatives, to Agrarian parties, nationalists, minority parties and a host of left-wing parties.

    However, with Averescu and the NLP's leadership both fervently hostile to the German occupiers, government would come to be formed by the Liberal-Conservative Take Ionescu and his Conservative-Democratic Party in coalition with various smaller parties, most prominently the Peasants' Party, promoting left-wing agrarianism, the German Party, representative of the German minority and a key vehicle for government influence, and the right-wing Democratic Nationalist Party under Nicolae Iorga, which had split between Iorga's moderates and radicals supporting the far-right radical A.C. Cuza. This coalition, which gradually united behind a centrist political platform of cultural and social conservativism matched with liberal economics, agrarian reforms and support for close relations with Germany, came to dominate political affairs for the duration of the 1920s with German backing.

    In order to restore marital ties between Romania and Germany, King Carol was induced to marry the 25-year old Princess Maria Amalia of Württemberg in 1922. The marriage, which he went through with in spite of his own happiness, proved immensely unhappy as Carol cavorted publicly with a series of lower-class women before he met the love of his life, the lower-class half-Jewish Magda Lupescu at a car race in 1923, taking her as mistress two years after their first meeting. The lack of an heir, initially caused by Carol's dissatisfaction with his wife and later by Maria Amalia's hatred of her philandering husband, became an ever greater issue over the course of the decade with Carol becoming convinced that the Germans were considering replacing him with his brother Nicholas due to the instability his lack of an heir was causing. This led Carol to take his wife on a deeply unhappy retreat to the Black Sea coast from which a pregnancy resulted in 1927, leading to the birth of Michael Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen as Crown Prince of Romania early the following year.

    Even under German dominance, Romania nevertheless proved itself an ambitious power, involving itself in the bitter ethnic fighting in the Duchy of Bukovina during the Austro-Hungarian Civil War between Romanians and Ruthenians on one hand and Poles on the other. The matter would grow increasingly bloody over the course of 1923 and 1924, before German intervention in early 1925 settled the matter in Romanian favor, the Poles having largely been driven from the Duchy with fire and blood. However, this settlement would far from resolve the matter, for in Bukovina a bitter national rivalry and hatred had been born between Poland and Romania which would result in their mutual border becoming the single-most fortified internal border within the Zollverein. This state of affairs was to lead to numerous headaches for the Germans, who preferred the northern trade routes through Bessarabia, Bukovia and Galicia into Prussia to those running through Transylvania, Hungary proper and into Austria, the southern route running outside the Zollverein and thus requiring considerable diplomatic finesse, the usage of the poor Hungarian railways systems and the payment of considerable tolls and tariffs.

    German involvement in Romania was also a matter of considerable dissatisfaction, as economically exploitative contracts for locals and the use of expatriate German labor for better paying work resulted in the creation of a rich German upper class of expatriates and local Germans. The result was a constantly simmering resentment just waiting to explode at the drop of a hat - as occurred most prominently in the Ploiesti Riots of 1926 and the Electoral Boycott of 1929 in which vast swathes of the electorate refused to participate in elections when a suggested People's Party-National Liberal Party governing coalition was rejected by German authorities in favor of a government under Nicolae Iorga - who had united the coalition parties into the National Peasants' Party. As relations with Germany, which had improved around the middle of the decade, began to sour, new parties rose to prominence, most prominently the far-right National Christian Party under A.C. Cuza and Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, which adopted Integralist political beliefs, replacing the Catholic Church with the native Orthodox church, and sought to free Romania from German influence. As the SPD rose to prominence in Germany and Trotsky rose to ever greater heights in Russia, efforts to consolidate the Romanian left-wing also increased, eventually resulting in the formation of two major Romanian left-wing parties, the Social Democratic Party of Romania and the Communist Party of Romania, although the latter would be outlawed by the National Peasants' Party in 1930 over their involvement in the 1929 boycott (1).

    The crushing of the Serbian Rising in Bulgaria and ascension of Tsar Boris III was to prove a major turning point for a country constantly bombarded with crises. Working in close concert, Prime Minister Andrey Lyapchev and Tsar Boris were able to implement a comprehensive reconstruction of the war-torn country while working on the basis of a coalition government structured around the ruling Democratic Party and the supporting Radical Democratic Party, United People's Progressive Party and the National Liberal Party, whose Germanophile position placed it in the perfect position to dominate diplomatic and economic relations with the Germans, and foreign relations in general, under the leadership of Vasil Radoslavov, in what came to be known as the Constitutionalist Bloc.

    This united front would prove necessary as support for particularly the Bulgarian Communist Party exploded during the latter half of the decade under the talented leadership of Georgi Dimitrov, who made common cause with the more radical agrarian splinter parties left over by the crushing of Alexander Stamboliyski in an effort to strengthen their appeal. This left the remaining, more moderate, peasants to unite under the Konstantin Muraviev-led National Peasants' Party, advocating land reforms and other left-wing agrarian policies while maintaining a conservative social and cultural policy, inspired by the policies of the NPP in Romania.

    Bulgarian foreign policy of the era focused largely on maintaining diplomatic ties to the Ottoman Empire and Germany. The latter relationship, with Germany, would see tangible strengthening when Tsar Boris married Princess Marie Alexandra of Baden in 1925, a match which would coincide with the opening up of the Bulgarian market to German investments and the dispatch of German industrial advisors to aid in both reconstruction and the development of Bulgarian domestic industries. The incorporation and pacification of Macedonia was to prove the death knell to the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, the terrorist organization which had been a primary vehicle for the chaos and bloodshed which had engulfed the Balkans for decades. While Macedonian regionalist agitation would remain strong, with the establishment of the Macedonian People's Party in 1927 as a member of the Constitutional Bloc and dominant political power in the Macedonian provinces, the revolutionary impetus largely ended with the suppression of the Serbs.

    These Serbs, who had been interned, denigrated and exploited as a cheap, disposable source of labor, would prove amongst the most pressing issues to resolve by 1926, when most immediate reconstruction work had concluded. While there were radicals who called for either the mass murder or expulsion of the surviving Serbs, ultimately the decision taken would see the Serbs dispersed across Bulgaria, a few families to a town or city, in a concerted effort to break up the Serbs collective identity to be subsumed into the larger Bulgarian whole.

    A second matter which consumed much of Tsar Boris' attentions would prove to be the military, which had already proven eager to meddle in political affairs when Ferdinand was deposed. Boris would seek to build up a personal following in the military as a means of countering such developments, building on his ties to General Ivan Valkov and extending his ties to men like General Pencho Zlatev, a dedicated monarchist officer who clashed on multiple occasions with Colonels Damyan Velchev and Kimon Georgiev, who advocated for a statist, integralist republican government. Nevertheless, the threat of another coup weighed heavily upon Boris and led him to recruit a bodyguard of German mercenaries, commanded by Gerhard Rossback, who would be able to repel coup-makers in the ranks of the military.

    As the decade neared its end, and men like Vasil Radoslavov and Andrey Lyapchev began to retire from political office, resulting in the election of the new Prime Minister Nikola Mushanov. Mushanov soon demonstrated himself a capable diplomat and administrator, negotiating a settlement to a brief border crisis with the Greeks in 1929 and an alliance with the Ottomans in 1930, while industrial development and urban investments saw a gradual shrinking of the rural population, even as industrial agriculture picked up pace, even if he proved more independent of mind that Lyapchev had been (2).

    The failure of Prime Minister Eleftherios Venizelos to secure victory in the Great War even after overthrowing King Constantine I of Greece would prove to be the source of his downfall. Even before the start of the Copenhagen Conference there were vocal voices calling for Venizelos to step down and for the recall of King Constantine - a state of affairs which worsened even further when the young King Alexander, who had been placed on the throne after his father's enforced abdication, controversially married the commoner Aspasia Manos in late 1919, provoking a major scandal which forced the young couple to leave the country for months, only for Alexander to be bitten by a domestic Barbary Macaque and die of sepsis bare days after his return to the country. The death of Alexander and the failures of the Venizelists to secure any meaningful gains at the Copenhagen Conference would result in the collapse of the government, a general election and referendum on the return of King Constantine, which resulted in his restoration to the throne and the election of the United Opposition under Dimitrios Gounaris, a Germanophile nationalist, who swept into government on the back of a supermajority coalition of right-wing parties.

    The restoration and election of Gounaris would mark a calming of the tensions which had engulfed Greece since the start of the Great War and which had nearly led to civil war during the National Schism, with both Constantine and Gounaris seeking to build closer ties with the victorious Germans, resulting in the marriage of Constantine's heir George to the ten-years younger Princess Margrete Karola of Saxony, second-eldest daughter of King Frederick August III of Saxony and younger sister to King Friedrich I of Poland, in 1921. Further diplomatic entreaties ensued, resulting in an exchange of embassies, the establishment of stronger trade relations and the dispatch of German industrial advisors, much as would be the case elsewhere in Europe.

    While irredentism remained strong in Greece, there was broad understanding of the fact that neither the Ottomans, Bulgarians or Albanians would be easy targets, particularly given German support for all three states. Seemingly encircled, worries about their own ability to retain control over Greek territory remained ever on the minds of both political elites and the wider populace, a matter further worsened when it was revealed that Bulgaria had pressed for the inclusion of Greek territories at the preliminary Central Powers negotiations. As such, the outbreak of first the Italian Civil War, then the Austro-Hungarian Civil War, the Kurdish Uprising and the Serbian Rising, came as a godsend to the Greeks, who now saw all their rivals distracted by matters far from Greece's border. This allowed them to refocus their efforts on domestic developments, such as the succession, which came about in 1923 when Constantine died happy and abed.

    The resulting ascension of King George II of Greece would see the redevelopment of diplomatic ties to France and Britain, most significantly demonstrated in the signing of an agreement permitting the use of Greek harbors for patrolling of the Adriatic of the Italian and Croatian coasts, and the redevelopment of Greek industry where, despite a majority of the population remaining rural, significant development of the country's industrial capabilities in urban quarters were undertaken. By the middle of the decade, the situation was looking increasingly rosy as diplomatic relations with both Britain and Germany strengthened, the Bulgarians dealt with the bloody chaos following the Serbian Rising, relations with the Ottomans normalized and the Albanians turned their attentions northward towards Montenegro and away from Northern Epirus, which remained disputed between the two countries. Gounaris would see himself elected to a second term in 1924, but was eventually toppled from power in 1928 by his own party fellow Panagis Tsaldaris, who split their party, the People's Party, and formed a governmental coalition with Ioannis Metaxas' nationalist and irredentist Freethinkers' Party. This new government shifted towards a more firmly Anglophile diplomatic position and agitated along the Greek borders, resulting in border clashes with the Bulgarians in 1929 and the expulsion of the remaining Albanian population of Northern Epirus between 1929 and 1931. As the Anglo-Ottoman relationship deteriorated during 1932, the Greek government was amongst the most vocal supporters of the British case, hoping to use any conflict which should erupt as a means of creating Megali Greece (3).

    The Ottoman Restoration Period, lasting from Mustafa Kemal Pasha's appointment to Grand Vizier in 1924 and until the outbreak of the Two Rivers Crisis, would prove to be a period of intense modernisation, industrialisation, secularisation and economic prosperity the likes of which had not been seen in the Empire in centuries. The inclusion of the Baku Oil Fields into the Ottoman Empire was the initial breakthrough, followed by the discovery of numerous further oil deposits in Syria and Mesopotamian lands, providing an immense new source of funding for Kemal Pasha, who immediately proceeded to plow the money into the further development of the Empire. The Baku Oilfields, having been nationalised under the CUP, were placed under the direction of a closely monitored state commission while Russian Whites, many of whom had been involved in the Baku Oilfields originally, were hired on to manage the transition to governmental rule and to train the Turks dispatched to take up leadership of the nationalised oil companies.

    As a demonstration of his commitment to the constitution of 1876 and democratic rule in general, Kemal Pasha organised elections in 1926, implementing universal male suffrage for all over the age of 21, which saw his recently formed his Ottoman Peoples' Party returned to government with a supermajority while the liberal Freedom and Accord Party, which had served as the primary opposition to the CUP, and the right-wing Renewal Party, which served as successor to the CUP, were left with a distant second and third place, the Ottoman Socialist Party securing an even smaller number of seats for fourth place in the elections.

    Kemal's OPP had structured their governmental beliefs around six major pillars: Monarchism, Populism, Nationalism, Secularism, Statism and Reformism, aiming to rebuild a wholly new and modern society for the Empire which would march into the decades to come as one of the great powers of the world, restored to the glory of their forbearers. Rather than relying on the Turanism and Pan-Turkish nationalism which had fuelled the CUP's rise and fall from power, the OPP instead viewed the citizens of the Empire as one united peoples and as a result set about a series of ambitious reforms aimed at bringing the populace into unity by breaking down the social despotism of the traditional divisions of the Empire.

    Key to these efforts was the implementation of secularism, undertaken by the replacement of the Ministry of Sharia with the Ministry of Religious Affairs, established to address religious affairs for all minority and majority religions in the Empire. At the same time the post of Sheikh ul-Islam, as head of the Ulama, the Millet system, which proscribed separate judicial systems based on religious beliefs, and Sharia law courts were abolished, in effect weakening the power of the religious institutions of the empire and centralising religious power with the Caliph, who became the sole Sunni religious authority within the Empire. Official measures were gradually introduced to eliminate the wearing of religious clothing and other overt signs of religious affiliation.

    Beginning in 1923, a series of laws progressively limited the wearing of selected items of traditional clothing. On the 25 November 1925 the parliament passed the Hat Law which introduced the use of Western style hats instead of the fez and further passed a law banning the use of religion for political affairs, while institutions of religious covenants and dervish lodges were declared illegal. The law also influenced school text books, shifting onto a more secular curriculum, for example seeing images in school text books that had shown men with fezzes, where exchanged with images which showed men with hats. The reformers imagined that the elimination of the orthodox and Sufi religious establishments, along with traditional religious education, and their replacement with a system in which the original sources were available to all in the vernacular language, would pave the way for a new vision of Islam open to progress and modernity and usher in a society guided by modernity. This effort was to be strengthened with the death of Sultan Mehmed IV in May of 1926 and the ascension of his nephew Abdulmejid II Osmanli to the Ottoman Throne (4).

    Aged 58 at the time of his ascension, Sultan Abdulmejid II brought a level energy and engagement to his Sultan not seen since the reign of Abdul Hamid II, although Abdulmejid's activism would take a significantly different route than that of his predecessor. He invested and interested himself immensely in the social and cultural development of his state and worked ceaselessly to strengthen the authority and support for the Sunni Islam at which he sat as the head. By reducing the secular authority of the Sultan while strengthening the Caliphal position, Kemal Pasha had indirectly demonstrated the focus which he hoped his monarch would take, a direction which Abdulmejid picked up on and would take further than Kemal could have ever imagined.

    This took the form of Abdulmejid's growing interest in Islamic Modernism, with him becoming an avid reader of Rashid Rida, Muhammad Iqbal and particularly Muhammad Abduh, whose message of a pluralistic community in which Islam could liberate men from enslavement of the body and mind, provide equal rights to all human beings, abolish religious compulsions and racial discrimination as well as the Ulama's monopoly on interpretation of scripture all interested him greatly. Abdulmejid would consistently issue statements and judgements favoring the more modernist and liberal position when presented with religious matters, causing a great deal of consternation in the largely conservative Ulama. The Caliph turned his focus primarily to the Shura, the wider group of believers in Islam, and disapproved of the elite Ulama. This support for modernist religious positions would clash with Kemal's own efforts to remove religion from public affairs, and resulted in several clashes over Kemalist reforms, particularly the closure of religious convents and dervish lodges, eventually forcing Kemal to take a step back on the matter, repealing the ban in 1929 (5).

    Nevertheless, the partnership between Abdulmejid and Kemal Pasha was largely harmonious and their efforts complimentary, to the horror of conservative Ottomans and the Ulama alike. Kemal would continue with his reforms following Abdulmejid's ascension, introducing new secular penal codes and a new civil code during 1927 and in 1928 began a series of revolutionary educational reforms which saw the development of mixed-sex schooling, the regulation of all religious education institutions by the Ministry of Religious Affairs, the explosive growth of literacy programs and public schools and the establishment of a secularised curriculum in public schools.

    However, more than any other action on the part of the government, it would be its economic policies which had the greatest direct impact on the Empire in the short term. The massive infrastructure projects in northern Mesopotamia and eastern Syria saw the construction of immense irrigation and damming works while work on the Berlin-Baghdad Railway was continued, with a new long spur turning eastward towards Baku, alongside a host of other railway projects designed to tie the Empire together. Land reforms were considered, but the matter proved too controversial in its initial stages, while the Ottoman Bank, which had served as Central Bank until the Great War before its British and French stakeholders led to its shuttering, was replaced by the Ottoman Central Bank, an entirely Ottoman led and owned institution, and the Ottoman Public Debt Administration saw its role rapidly shrink as Baku oil money was funnelled in to pay off the public debts, resulting in the shuttering of the organisation in 1931 to the great consternation of the Ottoman's foreign creditors who had been wielding that debt to improve their influence over the Ottoman state. Kemal extended the German-Ottoman alliance, leaning heavily on their industrial advisors for the construction of Ottoman public infrastructure projects in the south, and sought to improve relations with its neighbours. A notable development occurred in 1931, when women were granted equal status to men and were given the right to work and vote, Kemal having secured a second term in the 1930 elections (6).

    The famine in South Mesopotamia saw spillover into the Ottoman Empire, as starving peasants fled across the border, and resulted in a dedicated relief effort on the part of the Kemalist government - with the Caliph even paying a visit to the region to pray with the victims, winning him great popular support and relieving tensions in the area significantly. The outbreak of violence in Arabistan and Kuwait would occasionally spill over into Ottoman territories, necessitating the dispatch of significant forces to the border to repel bandits, but relief efforts soon began to extend into Arabistan proper at the invitation of Sheikh Khaz'al. By the time the British made their grand entry, the northern fringes of the British domains had already largely seen relief, although British diplomatic cables from both the local administration and the Indian Secretariat demanding an end to the infrastructure projects in northern Mesopotamia had been ignored. When Oswald Mosley's imperious diplomatic cables began to reach the Porte, the reaction was one of negligent equanimity, few believing that the British would be willing to threaten the hard-won stability of the Spirit of Amsterdam, a belief which was proven wrong in early January of 1933, when the January Demands were presented to the Porte by the British Ambassador to the Ottoman Empire, Sir George Clerk (7).

    Footnotes:
    (1) Sorry to be dumping so much information at once, but I am having to cover all the way from the end of the Great War and until 1932 in one go. The most important initial factor to note is that the National Liberals and People's Party are both excluded from government, when IOTL they dominated politics in the 1920s. I have decided to go with a Take Ionescu government instead, as while he was supportive of joining the Great War IOTL he seems to have had an ideological alignment which the German government would have been able to work with. Over the course of the 1920s, this governing coalition gradually merges into the National Peasants' Party, which continues to rule Romania throughout the decade and into the next one. It is worth noting that I have Carol marry a German Princess rather than his OTL marriage to Helen of Greece and Denmark, and without the OTL affinity between Carol and Helen (at the start of their marriage), it takes longer for an heir to be born. Thus, the Michael of Romania mentioned here is different from that of OTL and is born several years later, although the relationship with Lupescu happens on schedule. I realised that I hadn't actually mentioned what happened with Bukovina, but it ends up in Romanian hands to the bitter disappointment of the Poles. Finally, we also see the emergence of integralist ideology in Romania as an anti-German rallying force.

    (2) There is no happy ending for the Serbs in Bulgaria, who are oppressed, exploited and then obliterated through cultural osmosis - even if it will take decades to complete their assimilation into the Bulgarian populace. With the Italian Royal House in significantly worse position than IOTL, Boris' marriage to Giovanna of Italy makes a lot less sense and as such he goes on the hunt for a German bride, finding it in Baden. We see a gradual unification of the left-wing behind the Communist Party - which remains a permitted legal entity despite the worries of many - and the reunification of the remaining agrarian supporters behind a more moderate successor to BANU. The man who has come out the best in this situation is the new Prime Minister Mushanov who IOTL was forced to deal with constant crises related to the Great Depression and was eventually toppled by the military.

    (3) Greece is probably one of, if not the, Entente country who benefits the most despite their inability to win the Great War. Without victory in the Great War, and the resultant collapse of the Ottoman Empire, you do not have the disastrous Greek-Turkish War of 1919-1922, and as such the Constantine government does not collapse, state authority and legitimacy is not undermined and in general Greece is able to explore the fact that it is a peaceful oasis in the midst of the chaos of the early 1920s to the utmost. However, this also means that we do not see the discrediting of Megali ideology and the country's general irredentist tendencies which could prove troublesome in the future. Further, we see yet another German royal marriage into Eastern Europe and the Balkans, as well as yet another dispatch of industrial advisors (the Germans have come to view the use of advisors as one of the best vehicles for extending their state's soft power, which is why they prove so happy to use it). While Germanophile sentiments remain decently strong in Greece as a result, they are by far the Balkan power least influenced by them - being rather happy to work with particularly the British as well. The Liberal Party of Venizelos experiences quite a nadir during these years, but by the end of the decade they are making a comeback under the leadership of Alexandros Papanastasiou. Interestingly, while the Freethinkers' Party begins to adopt some elements of Integralist thought, they remain far more moderate than other similar parties - think more DNVP than Fascists. Oh, and that bit about King George dying of a monkey bite? All OTL.

    (4) We are basically seeing the implementation of Atatürk's OTL religious reforms here, if with some notable divergences. Most significant is that while he is cutting away at the Ulama and other religious institutions, he never touches the authority of the Caliph, which has the effect of significantly strengthening the Caliphal position, centralizing religious authority at the heart of the Empire and Sunni Islam as a whole while cutting away at the numerous institutions which held power and authority as well - this also results in a gradual expansion of the Caliphate's bureaucracy, as those who would once have become Qadis or taken other prominent religious positions find themselves forced to cling to the Caliph for safety and authority. While Sultan Mehmed VI did little with these powers, the same cannot be said for his successor, as we will see in the next section. It is worth noting that there has been a pretty major change to Kemalism ITTL, with Republicanism replaced with support for Monarchism - Kemal never gets disillusioned with the Sultanate as he did IOTL, and Nationalism which takes as its starting point the identity of Ottoman Citizen rather than Anatolian Turk. The OPP builds a national legend on the back of Ottoman history, whereas the Kemalists IOTL sought to reduce the role of the Ottoman Empire in Turkey's history.

    (5) I have not been able to find much about Abdulmejid's ideological beliefs, but I do know that Kemal was quite eager to work with him before he lost all belief in the Ottoman dynasty. He was a significant artist, actually one of the most prominent Ottoman artists of the pre-Great War years, and a noted musician. He had strong reservations about taking up the Caliphal post after his uncle's abdication and the effective end of the Ottoman Empire. I have here given him an interest, perhaps even passion, for Islamic Modernism which push Sunni Islam in an interesting direction. There was actually, and still is, a pretty large modernist and reformist Islamic movement, although a good deal of it ended up tied together with Wahabism and went down some pretty dark roads, but the effort to marry Islam with the modern world was a major effort at the time which could have easily gone in a variety of different ways. It is worth noting that this support for Islamic Modernism actually causes quite a bit of trouble for Kemal Pasha - who views Islam as more of a problem to be pushed to the side in a secular society rather than embraced and reformed as the Modernists would want. Think of it like the difference between integralism (as in, the church/religious authorities being directly involved in matters) and anti-clerical republicanism (as seen in France and Italy), although with the caveat that Islamic Modernism at this point in time ITTL is actually far more of a left-wing political movement than the right-wing integralists. Kemal has traded a rival secular power for what is effectively a pope, Abdulmejid will come to exercise significantly greater influence on Sunni Islam as a whole than almost any other Ottoman Caliph because he is viewed as far less tied to the Ottoman state, and as such is far more welcome (viewed as more impartial) than any other Caliph in recent centuries.

    (6) The closure of the Ottoman Bank and the Ottoman Public Debt Administration are a Big Deal (with capital letters). The Ottoman Empire had been shackled to a number of European-dominated institutions which effectively ran large parts of the Empire - with the OPDA serving effectively as a shadow bureaucracy ripping off the Empire. The payment of Ottoman public debts and the resultant ejection of the OPDA, as well as the establishment of a fully Ottoman Central Bank are immensely important developments which allow the Ottoman Empire to act as an independent power once more. One thing not addressed here is the matter of the Kurds, which has been relegated to a point later in the update, but events related to the Kurds do play an important role in the events on the eastern border.

    (7) And now we get to the meat of the matter. The Ottomans have basically been going from victory to victory, while the British have been mired in one crisis after another, all of which have been covered in great detail (and with more than a little glee in foreign papers) by the media. Beyond the South Mesopotamia Famine, the British are also dealing with a major famine in Africa, the potential spread of revolt from Indochina into Burma and are mired in political infighting, under such circumstances the Ottomans have a lot of reasons to believe that the matter will simply blow over if given time, particularly considering the fact that the crisis seems to have abated in South Mesopotamia.

    Polsk%C3%A1_arm%C3%A1da_vj%C3%AD%C5%BEd%C3%AD_do_T%C4%9B%C5%A1%C3%ADna_-_1938.jpg

    Turkish Tanks Parade Through Baghdad

    War In Our Time?​

    The January Demands hit Istanbul like a bomb, catching much of the Ottoman administration entirely by surprise and convincing many at the Porte that Communist madmen must have taken over Whitehall. The Demands caused shock elsewhere as well, in international news papers and foreign ministries across Europe, the sudden escalation of what had been viewed by almost everyone as a minor colonial dispute into a major diplomatic incident occurring at incredible speed. As the shock began to wear off, attitudes in Istanbul turned decidedly against the British, with public anti-British demonstrations occurring in front of the British Embassy and demands that the government stand up to Imperialist bullying engulfed the General Assembly. Backbenchers of the OPP spoke up loudly in the General Assembly against British arrogance and challenged the government to act with integrity in defense of the Ottoman domains. The Empire could not, and would not, accept a return to the dark decades of the preceding century when Europeans lorded over large swathes of the Ottoman domains, tearing away pieces of it bit by bit until the great Empire of Süleyman the Magnificent had been reduced to its current state.

    Kemal Pasha, ordinarily disinterested in foreign affairs and wishing for a continued peace in which to undertake further reforms, nevertheless saw himself forced to take a stand against the British. Thus, on the 8th of January 1933 Grand Vizier Kemal Pasha rejected the demands in full with the official backing of Sultan Abdulmejid and ordered the dispatch of troops to the Mesopotamian border under General Ismet Pasha to supplement forces dispatched to manage famine relief in a bid to match the already present British forces in the region. The British Foreign Office, fully under Mosley's control by this point due to the Foreign Secretary Arthur Henderson having fallen ill in late 1932, reacted to this rejection with confusion initially, neither Mosley nor his close subordinates having expected the Ottomans to take up the challenge. While Mosley tried to keep the matter quiet, by this point increasingly aware of the harm that his failure to manage the crisis had inflicted upon the government and party, word soon leaked to the press who, across the board, ran headlines screaming outrage at the Ottoman intransigence and calling on the Labour government to protect British Honour. Any hope Mosley, and by extension the rest of the Labour cabinet, might have had of allowing the matter to slide into obscurity had been lost and Ramsey MacDonald as a result suddenly found himself and his government forced to respond to public pressures or risk a political tarring and feathering by rabid Liberal and Conservative MPs raring to point out the Labour government's mismanagement of foreign affairs.

    The result was a sharp rise in jingoistic rhetoric by all wings of the British political establishment as no party wanted to be seen as bowing under to the Turk, drowning out more moderate voices calling for calm and order, led first and foremost by the old Celtic Communist John Maclean, who broke with the Labour government over the issue after he had been drawn into supporting the government during the struggle between Labour and the Conservatives. Worried that the government might collapse beneath him should he fail to act, MacDonald authorized the dispatch of a significant portion of the Home Fleet to the Mediterranean in spite of warnings from First Sea Lord Frederick Field that this would weaken the Home Fleet dangerously while ordering Admiral William Wordsworth Fisher, Commander-in-Chief of the Mediterranean Fleet, to shift the fleet's base of operations to Cyprus - in effect threatening the entire southern Anatolian and Syrian Coasts. This was coupled with yet another diplomatic communiqué on the 19th of January, reiterating the demands, which had by this point been foisted upon MacDonald against his wishes, and further demanded a show of respect on the part of the Ottomans - namely the opening of the Turkish Straits to the British fleet (8).

    Rather than drive the Ottomans into submission, this naked threat united every Ottoman citizen in opposition to the British. Fierce denunciations were taken up not only by political figures, but even by imams and other members of the Ulama, who were otherwise rather tepid in their support for the Kemalist regime if not outright hostile towards it. Caliph Abdulmejid II issued a fatwa against the British colonial regime in India at the insistence of his government advisors, seeking to enflame a dormant Khilafat movement into renewed activism, and called on all true Followers of Muhammed to unite in the face of imperialist aggression. As a result of these statements, protests would erupt across much of the Middle East and with particular furor in India, where the All-India Muslim Independence Party led public protests across much of northern India, soon joined by their comrades in the United Front, who acted in solidarity with their Muslim partners and at the pleas of the Muhammad Ali Jinnah for support.

    The meager naval forces of the Ottoman Empire were also called to duty, shifting their base of operations to Rhodes, wherefrom they would be able to threaten the sea routes to Cyprus and still be able to withdraw towards the Turkish Straits should the need arise, while coastal defenses were strengthened as far as possible - large artillery batteries being set up on either side of the Hellespont to shield Istanbul from attack. Even as the Ottomans were making their moves, the British Foreign Office received a welcome communiqué from Greece, where Prime Minister Tsaldaris and Ioannes Metaxas proposed a secret military agreement should war erupt. After considerable debate within the British cabinet over the issue, it was ultimately decided that it would be best to line up support more publicly in an attempt to avoid a direct military confrontation, leading to a dialogue between Greek and British ministries which would culminate in the issuing of a declaration in support of the British position by the Greek government on the 23rd of January.

    With tensions rising at an incredible pace, it proved impossible to avoid comparisons to the July Crisis, with its negligent handling of what had originally seemed a minor matter, and the conflict which had resulted thereof. Peace activists as a result took to the streets across much of Europe, with the Labour Party's own members in Britain amongst the most vocal voices calling for peace and negotiations. Massive peace demonstrations engulfed European capitals - in Berlin nearly one million people gathered together to press the government to take an active role in deescalating the rising tensions, while in Paris six-hundred thousand marched down the Champs-Élysées waving white banners and demanding the maintenance of peace. Whitehall experienced an unprecedented letter campaign from across the country which saw government offices buried in nearly three million letters in a matter of days while gatherings at war memorials occurred across Britain in an effort to remind the government of the costs of miscalculation.

    From the moment the January Demands had been issued, the Porte had been in dialogue with the German government, seeking to determine whether their alliance could be relied upon should worst come to worst. While the Germans waffled over the issue for weeks, they ultimately decided to give their assurances to their Ottoman allies. It was also during this period that the Germans reached out the British, seeking to negotiate a settlement to which might avoid catastrophe. Both Crown Prince Wilhelm and King George V took to the airwaves during these days, seeking to calm their uproarious populaces and calling upon cooler heads to maintain the peace while maintaining a written correspondence in hopes of finding a solution to the crisis (9).

    The entry of the Germans into the crisis would fundamentally reshape the situation, turning what had been a problematic but likely manageable situation for the British into an actual nightmare. Panicked news papers pronounced dire warnings and called for the people of Great Britain to rally to King and Country while in Whitehall pale faces greeted MacDonald on the morning of the 26th, the day after the German government dispatched its first diplomatic communiqué announcing the German support for the Ottomans and asking that the matter be settled by the League of Nations. Terrified of what Germany's involvement in any possible conflict would mean, the British government began a diplomatic offensive across much of Western Europe, most significantly seeking to draw the Latin Pact into the conflict and trying to rapidly rebuild relations with the French. Peace protests continued, and even expanded considerably, over the following week as diplomatic wrangling took on an ever more feverish pace.

    In France, the collapse of Tardieu's third government in a year resulted from the British entreaties, leaving President Doumergue to manage affairs once more while a new government was formed. The chaotic situation in France, coupled with the country having one of the largest and most active anti-war movements in Europe, meant that the British were met with rejection by Doumergue - which led the ambassador, William Tyrell, to begin a canvass of the French political scene in the hopes of supporting the formation of a pro-British government. At the instigation of Mosley, Tyrell initially approached the SFIO under Léon Blum, but soon came to the realization that the French left was leading the anti-war movement in France and as such were highly unlikely to support an anglophile position should it mean war. As a result, Tyrell turned towards the French right, which was not only significantly more anti-German than the left but was also where Tyrell himself had the closest ties, having befriended Louis Marin, the leader of the Republican Federation Party, a radical republican party which harkened back to the days of Clemenceau and Poincaré and with them the grand tradition of French Republicanism, while merging it with a far-right political stance not far removed from the Union de la Droite. By working with a faction within the Democratic Alliance unsatisfied with Tardieu's centrist political stance, Tyrell was able to broker a political alliance across the right, aimed at forming a coalition government behind Louis Marin in cooperation with the UD and DA. These frantic negotiations would come to an end late in the night on the 26th of January and as a result, the start of February would see the formation of the National Front as a national government for France, marking the first instance of the UD entering government.

    The rise of the National Front was met with intense public protests across much of northern France, with Paris seeing nearly one million demonstrators on the streets, but Marin nevertheless publicly reiterated the Entente Cordiale and called on the Ottomans to act in a civilized manner so as to resolve the crisis peacefully. Sidónio was quick to emphasize his continued support for the long-lived Anglo-Portuguese Alliance, but also met behind closed doors with German diplomats to reassure them of the Portuguese wish for continued peace and prosperity. King Alfonso was open to British diplomatic efforts, but soon began to raise questions of how Spain might benefit from the matter, hinting towards the continued British occupation of Gibraltar and sundry other issues troubling the Anglo-Spanish relationship, all of which were highly unlikely to find British acceptance and as such Spain remained silent on the crisis. In France, the rise of an overtly far-right, pro-British government caused immense consternation and anger on the left - with even centrists questioning the National Front's support for the British position. Protests and demonstrations engulfed France, spreading from Paris and the north-east to the rest of the country, with most cities seeing large crowds assembled to oppose the government's plans. Celebrities and public figures all called for peace and harkened to the Spirit of Amsterdam to be restored, many taking to the airwaves in some of the most wide-reaching radiobroadcasts in history up till that point, even as the situation seemed to continually deteriorate (10).

    In Pessian Persia the failure of the government to pay the gendarmerie in early 1932 had provoked an attempted coup against the Shah by junior officers of the Mashad garrison which had to be put down violently. In the aftermath of this attempted coup, and in light of the continued inability of the government to fully fund the gendarmerie, the force began to experience a precipitous decline as men sold their kits for food, left their posts to return to their family farms or even jumped ship to the socialist insurgency which picked up speed during the middle of 1932. Shah Mohammad, seeing his funding from the British collapse as attentions turned to matters in Mesopotamia, dispatched his family to Europe, where they would settle down in Switzerland in the hopes of riding out the crises engulfing not only their own country but the world as a whole, and ordered one of the most intense crackdowns in the young state's history in late 1932. Thousands were taken into custody as Socialist partisans, rarely with little more proof than the individual holding a working class position, while known Socialist "agitators", essentially anyone known to be criticizing the regime, was summarily shot if caught. Unsurprisingly, these measures were met with violent resistance as city after city and town upon town across Pessian Persia found itself engulfed in chaos and bloodshed.

    It was in response to this, as well as the obvious distraction of the Imperial powers, that Haydar Khan and the Tudeh Party decided to intervene in the conflict, ostensibly at the invitation of local rebel leaders. Thus, with international geopolitical tensions at their highest point since the end of the Great War and the eyes of the world turned to the capitals of Europe, armed forces from the Socialist Republic of Iran crossed the border into Pessian Persia in early February, where they were met with jubilation by the border guards - after they had shot their officers or taken them into custody. As the Socialists advanced near unopposed and hundreds of thousands flocked to meet their liberators across the wester-most domains of Pessian Persia, international attention was forcibly turned back to the Middle East.

    Hysterical anti-Communist screeds filled right-wing newspapers and thundering denunciations of the major parties of the Two Rivers Crisis for allowing the Communist menace to spread erupted across Europe while right-wing figures, who had originally spurred on the brewing conflict turned on a dime to denounce the growing strife as a betrayal of the civilized order. In France, the National Front crumbled as the Union de la Droite exploited the situation to denounce their ostensible allies in the Republican Federation as Communist collaborators with British Labour, out to turn good, Christian powers against each other while the Reds extended their grip on power in secret. The resultant collapse of the National Front in the second week of February sent France once more into the abyss as political intrigues over how the next government should be formed engulfed the republic.

    In Britain, Labour found themselves the target of scathing attacks by the Liberals and Conservatives, who accused the party of collaboration with the Soviets, with some going so far as to claim that traitors stalked the halls of Whitehall, while the Latin Pact withdrew what little support they had given to the British. Within a week, the painstakingly formed coalition that Labour had placed all its hopes on had collapsed around them while their backbenchers and supporting organizations, never particularly enamored with the conflict to begin with, turned against the leadership as well. The will to fight had been lost. When the German government once again proposed handing over the dispute to League of Nations arbitration on the 13th of February, they were now greeted with a significantly different mien. With the prospect of continuing now so toxic that it threatened to tear the Labour Party apart, there was little path forward other than for MacDonald to accept arbitration. The Crisis, for now, had been averted - not by the better hearts of mankind, but by the reemergence of a widely acknowledged greater threat (11).

    On the 24th of February 1933 diplomats from Germany, France, Britain and the Ottoman Empire met in the Croatian city of Split under the direction of the young diplomat Count Folke Bernadotte of Wisborg and his League of Nations staff to negotiate a settlement to the crisis. A cousin of the King of Sweden, Folke had demonstrated himself a cool and intelligent diplomat - having served as an aide at the age of 24 during the Copenhagen Conference, and at the Amsterdam Conference as a junior diplomat for Sweden before entering service in the League of Nations, rising swiftly to a prominent position. By the time of the Split Conference Bernadotte was one of the foremost diplomats in League service at the age of 38, with distinguished service throughout the preceding decade, most prominently leading a delegation to Sardinia in the aftermath of the Cagliari Massacre, managing famine relief efforts in West Africa and aiding in the resettlement of Russian refugees in the Ukraine after the end of the Russian Civil War.

    The negotiations which ensued would last for the remainder of February and March before nearing their end by the beginning of April. The negotiations, while tense at times, proved a great deal more amiable than anyone had expected as every party sought to simply conclude the matter as swiftly as possible so that they could turn their attentions to matters elsewhere and get past the entire embarrassing affair. By this point in time, the matter had lost much of its importance for the British, who simply wanted to ensure that they would not need to continue spending money on famine relief and a major military presence in the region and that their oil extraction efforts could resume. The Ottomans, by contrast, felt far more strongly about the matter and were able to secure several important gains at the negotiations. However, the most important result of these negotiations was to prove to be the framework which emerged to manage international water resources, a framework which was to set an important precedent for the League's role as manager and mediator in international institutions and settlements of the future.

    The Treaty of Split saw the Ottoman Empire agree to limitations and oversight in their use of water resources along the Euphrates and Tigris in return for the British shares of the Turkish Petroleum Company and the Ottoman Empire being granted a 10% stake in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company. While this resolved the immediate issues which had led to the Two Rivers Crisis, it was felt that more drastic action was needed to prevent a reemergence of the issues which had nearly brought the world to war. As a result, both the Ottomans and British agreed to the establishment of the Tigris-Euphrates Water Management Board to administer the usage of water resources along both rivers. This board would see representatives from all the participants at the Conference all receive seats on this board - 25 to the Ottomans, 20 to the British, 5 each to the Germans and French, and finally 10 seats for the League for a total of 65 seats, with any decision requiring a minimum of 40 votes to pass. This structure ensured that while the Ottomans retained the most seats, they would be unable to sway the board without support from more than any single group except for the British - whose agreement would signal the policy being beneficial for both major parties anyway. The inclusion of the League, which was given permanent chairmanship of the board with the caveat that the chairman could not come from any of the countries holding seats on the board, was an important step in strengthening the League as an independent institution dedicated to the furthering of the world as a whole. The matter of Sheikh Khaz'al, while a topic of considerable debate at the conference, was ultimately tabled without resolution. The signing of the Treaty of Split on the 3rd of April brought to a close the Two Rivers Crisis, allowing the world to breath a sigh of relief, but the damage done could not be denied. The Spirit of Amsterdam, of comradery, peace and prosperity had been given a deadly blow, and as the day dawned on the 4th of April people across Europe could not help but feel that darker days lay ahead (12).

    Footnotes:
    (8) The British and Ottomans made some rather grievous miscalculations and are now forced ever further in this game of brinksmanship - to the growing horror of not just themselves but the wider public. Mosley realises the moment that the January Demands are rejected without even an attempt at negotiation that he has made a major mistake, but by this point it is far too late to stop. Labour is also the political party least interested in escalating matters with the Ottomans, but are forced by public pressures and the constant attacks of the opposition to act or be seen as what their opponents have always considered them, insidious communist infiltrators out to undermine the might of Great Britain and incompetent plebs who should have never been given the august reigns of power. The Ottomans also can't budge, because a capitulation here would mean that all of the Kemalist rhetoric about moving into a glorious new age in which the Empire can stand toe-to-toe with anyone is just that - rhetoric. Added into this is a miscalculation on the part of the British of how much stronger of a state the Ottoman Empire has become when compared to during the Great War.

    (9) While matters worsen, the wider public begins to realise that matters are spinning dangerously out of control, leading to the mobilization of a strong pan-European anti-war movement. We really start to see international diplomatic involvement as well, with both the Greeks and Germans getting involved. One thing to emphasize is that neither side is looking for an actual conflict, but do not wish to be the first to give way. They are effectively playing chicken with the potential Great War as the cost of miscalculation. There are a significant portion of the Labour government who are hoping that a large enough peace-movement will emerge in Britain to make war unfeasible - which would give them an opportunity to get out of the crisis relatively intact.

    (10) The crisis expands and engulfs more countries as the spectre of the Great War looms ever larger. Tyrell's involvement in the formation of the National Front is highly secret, but there are many who are suspicious of the sudden formation of a governmental alliance formed from formerly implacable rivals. The UD and RF had been at each others' throats for control of the far-right based on monarchist and republican differences, so don't expect this alliance to last in the long run, but the significant part here is the fact that it brings the UD firmly into the mainstream, legitimising the movement, while establishing a government firmly aligned in support of the British in the Two Rivers Crisis. By contrast, the Latin Pact states prove far more mercenary, looking to secure as many benefits for themselves while paying as little for it as possible.

    (11) The Socialist save the world! By reminding everyone that they are still around… Things were getting incredibly close to spinning out of control, but in the last moment disaster is averted. I realise that the turnaround occurs at a pretty ridiculous pace, but I don't think it is too out there. Remember that the Labour Party was pushing this forward largely out of political pressure from the right, so the moment the moment turns against jingoistic conflict they are able to deescalate. Nevertheless, these events have deeply wounded the Labour Party as a movement, particularly by going against the pacifistic elements in the party. Many of those who were already skeptical of the party's mainstream tendencies view the actions of the party leadership as a betrayal of the movement. I also hope that events in Persia make sense to everyone. Pessian Persia was a state deeply reliant on funds from Great Britain, and as a result of the Two Rivers Crisis, the already reduced funding, caused by Labour's struggles with the Colonial Office, collapse completely as money is redirected to Mesopotamia. The result is that the regime begins to crumble in upon itself. While Pessian does what he can to shore up his position with a brutal crackdown, it has the effect of spurring people to action rather than terrifying them into compliance, partly caused by the fact that the troops undertaking the crackdown are as liable to shoot their officers and join the rebels as attack them, resulting in its rapid degradation and the Socialist exploitation of the situation to invade.

    (12) I really hope that the resolution of the Two Rivers Crisis leaves people feeling satisfied. Folke Bernadotte is probably a bit young to be leading these negotiations, particularly considering he only rose to prominence during World War 2 IOTL, but I feel like he would be the sort of figure to involve himself in the LoN ITTL given its changed mandate. I know that the British handing over shares to the Anglo-Persian Oil Company might seem a step too far, but the inclusion of Arabistan into the British domains and the fall of the Qajar Dynasty allowed the British to buy the remaining shares in the company for a pittance - meaning that it is a fall from 100% to 90%, instead of from 51% to 41%. The Turkish Petroleum Company has been a constant issue for the Ottomans, interfering in their efforts to nationalize the Baku Oil Fields and the development of oil fields in northern Mesopotamia, so the handover of these shares were a pretty major demand on their part. I really hope that people like the construction of the Water Management Board - it has its obvious weaknesses and problems, but it should at least resolve most of the obvious issues that need resolving.

    End Note:
    I hope no one is disappointed by how the crisis was resolved. Going into the crisis I knew that it would require quite a bit of illogical thinking on the part of many for the situation to go out of control, but that having a sudden and sharp war fever erupt would still be possible. I just think there are too many things weighted against this particular crisis erupting into open warfare. However, the Two Rivers Crisis plays an incredibly important role nonetheless for serving as the great turning point of the Spirit of Amsterdam. It is all down-hill from here as the tensions and distrust between nations amplifies and the good-will of the 1920s give way to a growing sense of global crisis.

    I am really looking forward to seeing what all of you think of this one, since it is the point where things really start to take a turn in the TL. The sort of lull which had characterised the 1920s ITTL are coming to an end, and a more troubled decade dawns.
     
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    Feature: Man, Machine, Entertainment
  • Dear readers, as anticipated by the illustrious @Zulfurium, it's time for another update on my part. This time, it's not an Insight, but a Feature: whereas the former goes into great depth about a country, faction, or series of connected issues, features are much shorter and an exploration of a singular topic. Consider it a breather so shortly after the resolution to the Two Rivers Crisis! The topic at hand was part of the German Insight, and will now take centre stage: the development of international motorsport competitions. I know it's a bit off the beaten path, but society is as much a part of any alternate history as great power politics, and mass entertainment is one of the defining transformations to take place in the early 20th century, so hopefully this will prove an interesting read! As always, if you spot any mistake or factual error, please be so kind as to flag it.

    Let's get started!

    Feature: Man, Machine, Entertainment

    D%C3%A9part_du_Grand_Prix_de_Monaco_1936%2C_Caracciola_devant_Chiron_et_Nuvolari_sous_la_pluie.jpg

    The start to the 1936 Monaco Grand Prix, under a downpour. The Mercedes cars of Louis Chiron and Rudolf Caracciola lead Tazio Nuvolari's FIAT. Caracciola would go on to win the race.​

    The rise of mass consumerism had allowed sports to break out of its aristocratic niche in the wake of the Great War, finally maturing as a pastime and source of entertainment for an increasingly wide segment of the population. But the sweeping tide of modernity also propelled ahead new forms of sports, making full use of the newly available technologies and entering a wider narrative about material and social progress. Nothing came to represent modernisation more than motorisation, and that carried over into the explosion of motorsports as a veritable fever across Western Europe and the United States. Prior to the Great War, motorsport had been a mostly local phenomenon, with national racing environments fundamentally independent of each other – although some international cups did take place, and yearly visits by European racers to the Americas were a colourful opportunity for Transtlantic competition. This was to change in the 1920s, and particularly during the happy years of optimism and international cooperation collectively dubbed as the Spirit of Amsterdam. The Association Internationale des Automobile Clubs Reconnus, or AIACR, was selected by a dedicated international sporting conference as the world’s governing body for motorsport, and quickly set about formalising a common ruleset for Formula, open-wheel based racing on a European and international level. It also allotted national racing colours based on the nationality on teams participating in racing competitions. The selection was based on which colours had been run by equipes attending the Gordon Bennett Cup, one of the few international racing competitions to have taken place before the Great War, running from 1900 to 1905. The final allottment was to see France adopt blue, with Britain running a “British Racing Green” palette, followed by Rosso Corsa, a shade of red, being confirmed to Italy – a choice that drew much comment and some irony once the Socialists emerged victorious in the Italian Civil War. At Franco-British insistence, the Kingdom of Italy received the allocation of yellow – which had been reserved for Belgium before the war, and had thus become vacant following the country’s extinction. This was mostly pro forma, as the troubled Kingdom of Italy lacked the automotive industry required to field professional racing teams, with its entries being limited to private, wealthy racers who purchased and prepared their own racecars – the internal stability needed to host international races was missing as well, leading to nearly non-existent royalist participation in the early age of international motorsport. The United States would race in white and blue, Brazil in pale yellow, Japan in white with a red sun plastered over the monococque, and so forth. Germany was to secure white, the same colour it had run in the early 1900s – but not all German manufacturers stuck to this rule, with particularly Mercedes-Benz and Auto Union adopting aircraft monococque construction techniques, which made use of unpainted aluminum. Other manufacturers, like BMW, stuck to the more traditional choice, running white cars. (1)

    Standalone races not part of any championship – or, sometimes, serving as the nucleus for new championships with alternate calendars – also rose to prominence, quickly gaining prestigious spots in global popular culture. The Indy 500, held on the American oval track of Indianapolis since 1911 and traditionally falling on the US’ Memorial Day, came to serve as a scene for Transatlantic competition. Not to be outdone, France’s organising of the first 24-hour endurance race at Le Mans in 1924 arguably heralded the internationalisation of motorsports in Europe. The two competing Italian governments were to turn their respective flagship events into rival platforms for their respective political systems. Running from Brescia to Rome and back over a course of 1500km, or a thousand Roman miles, the Mille Miglia became a way for Socialist Italy to revitalise the economy of its heartland, as well as display the virtues and achievements of its socialist economic programme: drawing an average of five million spectators every year, many of them enthusiastic tourists from the Zollverein countries, it was not lost on anyone that the Mille Miglia symbolically repeated the southward march of Italy’s socialist fighters from their northern strongholds down onto Rome. The Kingdom of Italy, on the other hand, could boast of the oldest endurance race in the world – the Targa Florio, an event held in the hills surrounding its now erstwhile capital of Palermo. This race was a better fit for British and French tourists, but given the logistics of travelling to Sicily and the tense politcs using the race as a staging platform, the Targa Florio never matched the Mille Miglia in its appeal to foreign motorists, as far as spectators were concerned. Drivers remained enthusiastic about its insanely dangerous mountain hairpins and public roads, however, ensuring strong international competitors would turn up at the event on a yearly basis. (2)

    No matter their popularity, these single events alone could not make up a yearly racing schedule. Intense negotiations had been ongoing for the better part of a decade to establish a structured world championship for manufacturers. At first this had been done with an eye to 1925 as a start date – but brewing conflict in Austria-Hungary and Italy had convinced AIACR to postpone these talks, and as things quieted down, the moment was lost – the idea of a true world championship floundering in the face of evident lack of organisation, and political wrangling inside the federation. As Le Mans, the Mille Miglia, and the Targa Florio demonstrated the popularity of motorsports in Europe, focus shifted to a more limited endeavour, aiming for a comprehensive European Championship to be run primarily in Western Europe. The added years of planning were to prove crucial to AIACR’s preparedness: the original point-scoring system designed for the world championship, which gave out the least amount of points to drivers finishing in top positions, crowning the world champions as the driver and team with fewer points, was scrapped after considerable back and forth. That point-scoring system, which included complicated provisions for drivers below third only getting percentages of points based on the race distance they had completed, was eventually replaced by a much sleeker points system with the race winner gaining nine points, the second-placed driver gaining six, and down to the sixth driver as the last scorer with one point – the driver and team with the highest point tally securing the championship at season’s end. The new European Championship would be held across the many racecourses which had been developing by making extensive use of public roads, along which spectators would gather around to mingle, drink, eat, and cheer on their heroes. The development of dedicated racetracks was still some time away, but when the European Championship was finally inaugurated in 1929, it sported an impressive calendar (for the time) comprising races in Monaco, France, Spain, Great Britain, Switzerland, Socialist Italy, and Germany. Alongside the legendary German tracks of the Nurburgring and Spa, Italy’s Monza soon gained great notoriety as the first purpose-built racetrack in Europe, allowing drivers to achieve such speed along its steeply banked corners that the track was soon nicknamed “the temple of speed”. (3)

    Fielding BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Adler, and Auto Union, Germany quickly established itself as one of motorsports’ true giants, although it did not lack for rivals. The spectacular title fights that characterised the early seasons of the European Championship drew the fascination of millions of fans, and came to sublimate – in a peaceful way – the intensifying political tensions among the countries that shared the European continent. France could boast of the internationally beloved and popular manufacturers Delage and Delahaye (respectively based in Paris and Tours), but ironically the manufacturer that most came to symbolise France was not located in France at all. Based in Molsheim, an Alsatian town in the German Empire, and founded by an Italian Milanese designer in cooperation with a Lorrainian French baron who owned two car factories on both sides of the Franco-German border, Bugatti had a decent claim to be the most “European” of racing teams. A joke quickly developed that in France, Bugatti was considered French when it won, and German when it lost – with the opposite being true in Germany. Italian car manufacturing was greatly reshaped by the outcome of the civil war, with Gramsci’s government proceeding to consolidate the country’s many premier car marques – like Alfa Romeo and Maserati – into FIAT, which was stripped from its private owners the Agnelli family and transformed into a “great workers’ cooperative”. Through its acquisition of Alfa and Maserati’s technical and racing expertise, FIAT was to field impressive racing teams that contested for wins and titles, and propelled the fabled Italian driver Tazio Nuvolari to legend – all the while helping the regime promote the technical success of the first true “socialist racing team” – to the endless gall of their Sicilian neighbours, who had no capacity to field a true national team. (4)

    As European motorists flocked to the races to cheer on their heroes, and the 1920s gave way to the 1930s, AIACR began intense negotiations with its American counterparts, expanding on their experience in European racing to set up a true world championship – if one that would remain based in Western Europe and the United States for the time being. It would take about a decade for these talks to make a breakthrough, but in the meantime Europeans could look to a bright motorsport future – and its promotion of the values of modernity in European society. (5)

    Footnotes:

    (1) A lot of this information is OTL ground we needed to cover. These developments were all underway in the 1920s, but the Great Depression and the outbreak of WW2 completely stalled them, and forced motorsport to effectively start from scratch in 1950 – giving us the Formula One we know. It also kept American and European racing forcibly apart for longer: Transatlantic races were just starting to pick up again, for the first time after the end of the Great War, when the Great Depression hit IOTL – and then of course WW2 came. Here, there is a window of opportunity for the rift to be mended earlier. Of course, the future ITTL looks uncertain, but in the relatively better economic conditions, planning can go ahead. The colours are OTL as well, with a few modifications (such as poor Belgium not filling the yellow slot). If you’re a motorsport fan like I am, you will know there is an immortal myth surrounding Mercedes and Auto Union picking “silver” over white because this meant scratching the paint off the cars, and thus staying under the weight limit introduced in 1934. This is, as mentioned, a myth: unpainted race cars rolled out of Mercedes and Auto Union years ahead of the introduction of the weight limit, and it was a development entirely related to aircraft technology. Moreover, silver and white are the same heraldic tincture, “Argent”. It’s safe to assume that, like in OTL, commercial sponsorship will eventually come around to completely upend national colour schemes, but for now, they are largely observed.

    (2) While the Indy 500 is unaffected by the butterflies thus far – and something positive to associate with Indiana, rather than the horror that is the Indiana Klan – the 24hrs of Le Mans is formed a year later than OTL, due to the later end to the war and the more chaotic economic and internal situation in France. It’s worth nothing that in the back half of the 1930s, the race was heavily affected – and temporarily suspended – by French general strikes, and it would prove similarly sensitive to any major disruption ITTL as well. The Targa Florio and Mille Miglia share the same OTL layouts, but their cultural narrative framing could not be any more different – coming to symbolise the implacable opposition between two regimes, and ironically their different degrees of success and viability as well. These events have become politicised in a way that was simply unthinkable for them OTL.

    (3) This is a true blessing in disguise for AIACR. OTL, they went ahead with ill-fated and inadequate plans for a world championship for manufacturers, which lasted only two years before being scrapped – the technical regulations being so stringent and out of touch with the reality of technological development that most Grands Prix held at the time could not be sanctioned as world championship races. The bureaucratic faction which controlled the organisation was undeterred by this defeat, and held on the reins to inaugurate a somewhat successful European championship in 1931 – but kept to the ridiculous points system you have seen outlined in this update. The faction headed by the Belgian Langlois, which held out for more reasonable technical and sporting regulations, only got its wish to formulate an alternative plan in 1939 – which was nullified by the outbreak of WW2. ITTL, the annexation of Belgium has placed Langlois and his followers inside the German and French representations to AIACR – the two biggest heavy hitters by far alongside Britain, with Italy less pivotal than OTL at this time due to their preoccupation with the Civil War. This, combined with the temporary scrapping of the world championship and the better planning that went into the European Championship, delivers a far more technically flexible and regulatorily sensible series, which is much easier for people to follow.

    (4) This is mostly OTL, except the championship starts two years ahead of OTL schedule, with a bigger field of competitors due to the clearer regulations and better funding available in the favourable economic conditions, and a beefed up calendar due to better organisation on the part of the AIACR. Since German teams have already been examined in the Insight on Germany in the postwar world, here we skim over them to take a look at their primary French and Italian competitors. Bugatti’s ridiculous story of geographical ambiguity is entirely OTL, and mostly stems from the original owner of the two factories being caught flat-footed by the Treaty of Frankfurt which ended the Franco-Prussian war: this left him with one factory in German Alsace, and its twin in French Lorraine. It is often ignored OTL because, by the time Bugatti became the designing and racing force that it was in the interwar years, Molsheim had shifted under French rule again. ITTL, the “paternity” of the organisation is partially claimed by three separate European countries, with hilarious results and mental jumps among fans and the media covering its exploits. As for Italy, IOTL consolidation mostly happened in the postwar era, and particularly in the 1960s – and in spite of the strong ties between FIAT and the government, they were largely a public affair. In spite of this consolidation, FIAT still maintained its newly acquired brands for its racing teams, but this consideration does not apply ITTL and in the 1930s - differentiated branding is not that important as of yet. It's important to note that in OTL Gramsci outlined a plan to turn FIAT into a worker-owned cooperative during the Biennio Rosso, and this becomes government policy under his rise to power – with other manufacturers rolled into the cooperative. Without getting into its industrial efficiency as a result of these developments, the newly minted cooperative does acquire a wealth of technology and designing talent, which makes it an instant competitor in any international racing event it enters.

    (6) The road is now paved for a well-structured world championship to eventually come about, but we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. It is not a given that these negotiations will succeed right off the bat. Moreover, the logistics of the era remain complicated for long-distance travel, and the area covered by this “world” championship is still severely limited. Moreover, politics, economic turbulence, and military conflicts can still get in the way of things. But for now, motorsport is a veritable craze in the United States and Western Europe.

    End note: I've always been deeply interested in the many intersections between sport and politics. In the peculiar case of motorsport, this also draws in such disparate elements as industrial and economic policy, technological competitions, and national prestige in an era of rapid modernisation. Especially in this era of the 20th century, motorsport is a synecdoche for great power competition, so I thought it would prove an interesting lens to examine the society, popular culture, and perception of the international community that is developing in the world of A Day In July. I hope the different format served its purpose for this one, and that it proved an interesting read! Looking forward to hear what everyone thinks of this experiment.
     
    Update Thirty-Two (Pt. 2): Balanced On The Edge
  • Balanced On The Edge

    Colonel_pesyan.jpg

    Mohammad Taqi Pessian, Shah of Persia and Founder of the Pessian Dynasty

    Oriental Peculiarity​

    Even as the Two Rivers Crisis was being resolved with great haste in Split, the situation in Persia turned ever further in favour of the Socialists. Popular uprisings across the country erupted and numerous low-ranking soldiers switched sides at the first instance of combat with the invading socialist forces. Mohammad Pessian pleaded for aid from the international community, in particular the British, and was able to secure major arms shipments and financial aid to shore up his position while British troops were garrisoned along the coast in Hormozgan Province, most significantly the cities of Qeshem, Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Bandar Lengeh. This was to allow Pessian to strengthen his position, hiring mercenaries from amongst the Afghan tribes in the north to supplement his forces while paying the gendarmerie and allowing them to loot rebellious towns and neighbourhoods to help ease the cost of their salaries.

    The result, unsurprisingly, was a swift escalation as any town with even the slightest sign of unrest was soon targeted by the gendarmerie for plunder while mass arrests, commonly followed by torture to extract confessions and inveigle others, followed by property seizures and either prison time or executions were conducted, all in an effort to extract what wealth could be gained from the populace. Particularly hard hit in these crackdowns were the politicians who had ostensibly supported the Pessian regime, with both Ali-Akbar Davar and Abdolhossein Teymourtash amongst those who had their properties seized and were imprisoned, with Davar's eldest son amongst those executed. There were three major assassination attempts upon Mohammed Pessian's life during this time, with the third succeeding in killing two of his bodyguards when a third bodyguard turned on his master following the arrest and execution of his cousin. Even the Supervisory Council was not to escape, with the Marja Abu l-Hasan al-Isfahan imprisoned and tortured after he condemned the actions of the Pessian Regime during a Friday Sermon.

    This was to prove a step too far as the clergy, who had largely been expressing support for the ruling regime up till this point, turned against Pessian and called for the people to rise up and remove him from power. Within days, Pessian found himself on the run as his regime crumbled around him. Over the course of late March, Pessian would make his escape north-eastward towards Afghanistan, crossing the border on the 28th of March, wherefrom he would make his way to Switzerland, meeting up with his family soon after. When the governmental offices fell, efforts to discover the wealth extracted by Pessian were to result in failure as it soon becoming clear that the former Shah of Persia had made off with not only the entirety of the state treasury, including numerous priceless artifacts, he had also succeeded in extracting most of the easily movable wealth from much of the Persian elite in the months of crackdown while making off with a good part of the sum given over to the government by the British. In 1934 Pessian, his family and closest retainers would find themselves warmly welcomed by the Old Republic regime in Brazil, who allowed the former Shah wide leeway to do as he pleased in return for a substantial sum of money (13).

    Pessian's flight from the capital was to prove the last nail in the coffin of Pessian Persia, however, it would not be the end of the violence. In Kerman, where Davar and Teymourtash had been imprisoned, the release of political prisoners allowed for the reestablishment of order in the region, while in the south the British extended their control over Hormozgan to the entire province. In the north, near Mashad, religious authorities were able to establish some sort of order, although the region was wracked by bitter civil unrest as anger at the religious authorities led to attacks on mullahs and other religious figures, with the Shia scholar and philosopher Sheykh Mohammad Hossein Qaravi lynched in the streets by a riotous crowd of workers. Qaravi was a fellow student of Naini and Isfahan, the two most prominent Shia religious figures at the time, and his death was to illustrate the bitter anti-religious sentiments which were to characterize north-eastern Iran for years to come. Qaravi's death would signal the collapse of order in the north and the flight of Shia clerics from their one-time base of support, most seeking safety in Kerman, with order only restored in the region by late May as Socialist forces secured hold of Mashad and its surroundings. In Kerman, Davar and Teymourtash served as the rallying point for the chaos engulfing Pessian Persia and when Socialist forces under General Mahmud Khan Puladeen approached the city Teymourtash set out to negotiate a peaceful surrender.

    Davar and Teymourtash, as well as many of their supporters who had aided in building the civilian parts of the Pessian State would find themselves permitted to participate in Iranian politics in the years to come but saw significant limitations set on their personal wealth and right to hold positions of power in the former Pessian region. The surrender at Kerman, occurring in mid-May, was to end effective Persian resistance to the Iranians, who were swift to push to the eastern borders of Persia to prevent any loss of land to ambitious neighbors before turning their attentions southward to the British in Hormozgan Province (14).

    The quelling of unrest across former Persia would last for nearly the entirety of the rest of the year while General Puladeen and the most elite Iranian units turned southward to deal with the British. The focus of the Iranian advance was to be Bandar Abbas, which lay at the centre of the coastal province and was by far the largest city in the region. Advancing from the north and north-east, British forces exchanged fire for the first time with the Iranians around the town of Dehbarez on the 8th of June, although without fatalities. Following these initial clashes, matching skirmishes occurring at Fareghan and Bandar Lengeh with a combined nineteen wounded and three dead before fighting came to an end, negotiations ensued between the two forces.

    With Great Britain's political scene already in turmoil following the Two Rivers Crisis, and the danger of the Socialist Iranians attacking the already much weakened South Mesopotamian colonial domains, authority largely fell to the regional authorities, led by High Commissioner Arthur Grenfell Wauchope, appointed in the aftermath of the Two Rivers Crisis to deal with matters of the Persian Gulf. Wauchope, accepting that it was in no one's interests for a greater conflict with the Iranians to erupt at this time, worked insistently to resolve the crisis. He eventually secured the handover of the island of Hormuz as well as an agreement to prohibit the use of naval bases in Iran by any other foreign power than Britain, Wauchope and his backers in London fearing that the Soviets might use Persian ports to secure access to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. While Hormuz was sparsely populated and had little immediate economic value, Wauchope looked towards the example of Hong Kong for inspiration, hoping to retain an easy access point to Persia should the need ever emerge. As such, Wauchope received considerable accolades for his successes in negotiating a peaceful settlement and in the process securing the region just as events elsewhere caused new headaches in London.

    As for the Iranians, the successful unification of the former Persian domains was met with wild jubilation and saw the Tudeh Party under Soleiman Eskandari reach to ever greater heights. Elections in 1934 would see the Tudeh Party granted a second term, while the Iranian Democratic People's Party under Teymourtash made its first entry onto the Iranian political scene, securing considerable gains amongst the middle class and in the south-east where his handling of the post-Pessian crisis was widely acknowledged to have saved tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of lives, in the process forming the second largest party in the Iranian parliament. A primary concern following the unification of Iran was dealing with the religious situation, as religious policies had remained in a state of flux within the Socialist Republic since the state's inception while in former Pessian Persia the clergy was viewed as complicit in the regime of the now bitterly hated Shah Pessian. This tense religious situation would ultimately see a compromise when the once-tortured Marja Isfahani negotiated a religious settlement with the government which saw clergy excluded from political office or influence, including a ban on political messages in their preaching, but permitted the continued operation of religious institutions.

    While Marja Isfahani would find himself welcomed by governing circles, and soon rose to prominence as the most significant religious leader in all of Iran, his fellow Marja Naini, who had been more influential than Isfahani under the Pessian regime, was forced onto the side-lines and prohibited from leading religious services. With the primary source of conflict in Iran resolved the Iranian government was able to turn its focus primarily to modernization efforts. Russian advisors aided in the development of a mass education system of public schools established across the nation, while largescale road construction projects were undertaken and the Trans-Iranian Railway was built with support for Russian engineers over the course of half a decade. This period was also notable for its mass liberation of women, with the chador cloak and hijab eliminated from Iranian society and the use of the veil outlawed in all public affairs while women were granted the vote and permission to work in most spheres of society - although they usually found themselves relegated to secretarial work or as nurses and teachers. The large Kurdish, Armenian and Jewish population saw most of their restrictions ostensibly removed - the Jewish ghettos abolished and the Jizya relegated to the dustbin.

    Over the course of the middle years of the 1930s, while dealing with settling tensions in Kurdish lands, the Iranian state was largely at peace and experiencing considerable growth in its prosperity. While foreign relations were troubled, with the British seeking to contain the spread of Communism on all sides, and the Ottomans hostile towards the regime which they had so drastically underestimated during the 1920s. Despite this, relations with the Soviets and Khivans remained strong, and a great deal of trade and cultural exchange occurred between them. The establishment of Tehran University and the Mashad University, having occurred during the years of division, soon found themselves tied closely into the wider university networks of the Third International, with students exchanged to the increasingly well renowned universities in Moscow and Petrograd (15).

    The Kurdish Peoples found themselves trapped between the Iranian and Ottoman states, and under threat of subjugation from both. While Simko Shikak's Rebellion had proven the most significant of recent Kurdish revolts, it was neither the first nor the last. Since the 1880s there had been a growing sense of Kurdish Nationalism which had clashed with the Ottoman and Qajar states on several occasions. During the Great War, the Kurds had been both assailants and victims of the Ottoman Empire's assaults on its distrusted minorities, murderous attackers upon the Armenian and Assyrian minorities, and the target of deportations and forced sedentarisation efforts on the part of the Ottoman CUP government. The crushing of the Simko Shikak Rebellion by joint Iranian-Ottoman forces between 1924 and 1925 was to severely distress the Kurdish population in Ottoman lands, who had already been targeted by the Ottoman government in the past and viewed this latest conflict as yet another betrayal of Kurdish aspirations.

    Kemal Pasha's investments into Mesopotamia, and general support for the Azeri population in its eastern lands, were to place significant pressure upon the Kurds as well, who now found themselves increasingly inundated by Turkish settlers who quickly took over local government and society, pushing the Kurds to the sidelines. While the Kemalist government preached of a common Ottoman citizenship and identity, the Kurds found themselves a constant target, as a national peoples fighting for independence and self government, in the process rejecting that common Ottoman identity. During the Simko Shikak affair, there were sympathy revolts in parts of northern Mesopotamia and Ardabil, led by Sheikh Said of Palu, a mysterious rebel commander whose real identity remains unknown, who was killed in 1926 by Ottoman regulars after the collapse of his revolt.

    The Ararat Rebellion in Ardabil, beginning in 1928, was to prove a far more troublesome affair and consumed a great deal of Ottoman resources and efforts between 1927 and early 1932 when the revolt was finally quelled. Led by Ibrahim Heski and structured around not only several significant Ottoman Kurdish Tribes, but also supported by Kurds across the border in Iran, the Ararat Rebellion erupted when Heski and his men launched an ambush upon a regiment of regulars and a gendarmerie regiment dispatched to the region to quell Kurdish unrest in response to increased taxation efforts, which saw both regiments defeated and scattered - one of the most significant accomplishments of the Ottoman Kurds to date. Hunted by three regiments of regulars, Heski and his men escaped across the border to Iran wherefrom they were able to recruit widely on the basis of their accomplishment.

    Then, two years later, in 1929, Heski returned with a well-armed force of highly trained Kurdish fighters, having drawn heavily from amongst the veterans of Simko Shikak's Rebellion for support, and launched an attack on forces stationed in Ardabil. Over the course of three months, more than seven Ottoman regiments were defeated and scattered, allowing the leadership, including Ibrahim Heski and Ihsan Nuri, to establish the short-lived Ararat Republic of Kurdistan in the borderlands between the Ottoman Empire and Iran. Despite their fierce resistance, the Ottomans would continually put pressure upon the Kurds, driving them from the cities and towns in the mountains and villages of eastern Ardabil, before they were trapped on Mount Ararat and gradually bombed into capitulation over another dozen weeks or so, resulting in Ihsan Nuri, the overall commander of the defenses, capitulating to the Ottomans after it became clear that his forces were at a breaking point. Nevertheless, Heski was able to make his escape with a few trusted men, continuing to raid the countryside and cause trouble, recruiting when he could, until early 1932 when he was hunted down and killed by Ottoman regulars.

    The Ararat Rebellion was to prove one of the most significant influences on early Kurdish nationalism, with Heski viewed as a national hero and martyr in the cause of Kurdistan alongside Simko Shikak and Sheikh Ubeydullah of Nehri ,who had led the 1880 revolt which kickstarted the movement for northern Kurdish nationhood. However, there was another, much more bizarre, version of Kurdish nationalism which was to emerge under the leadership of the immensely influential Barzani family further to the south. Initially led by Mahmud Barzani, the family would come under the command of the brothers Ahmad and Mustafa Barzani upon Mahmud's exile. A prominent figure in southern Kurdish lands, constituting a large part of north-eastern Mesopotamia, Mahmud had been deeply hostile towards Ottoman rule since the deportations of the Great War, although he had eagerly participated in driving out both the Assyrians and Armenians. The three Barzanis had been able to unite most of the Kurdish tribes in the region behind them over the course of the 1920s, as Turkification efforts intensified in the region. In 1929 Mahmud had begun launching raids against Ottoman strongpoints and launched a campaign of terror against prominent Turks in northern Mesopotamia in retaliation for the exclusion of his family from government offices. The response was heavy-handed, and saw Mahmud initially forced into exile in Iran where he worked to support the Ararat Rebellion before returning in 1933 when Ahmed Barzani secured his position at the head of the southern Kurds.

    Ahmed was a bit of an odd bird, having been convinced by Mullah Abd al-Rahman to proclaim himself an avatar of God and the Mullah as his prophet in 1927. As a result he had set about instituting a new religion, combining Christianity, Judaism and Islam to unite the religiously fragmented Kurds with himself in the role of God-King of the Kurds. Although Abd al-Rahman was killed by Ahmed's brother Muhammad - who took poorly to the Mullah's twisting of his brother's fragile mind, the idea of Ahmed's divine identity spread through the Kurdish population in the region and soon began to cause trouble. Ahmed's efforts to extend his power over the Kurds provoked civil strife between the Kurdish tribes, which eventually saw Ahmed emerge victorious in 1932 following a series of bloody skirmishes and intrigues largely orchestrated by Ahmed's brother Muhammad. However, the growing secularization efforts on the part of the Kemalists was to prove a direct assault upon Ahmed's authority, and when Turkish administrators in the region ordered Ahmed to surrender either his religious authority or secular power he went into revolt in late 1932. The Ottomans, distracted by matters in the south, were unwilling to dispatch any major forces against the Barzanis and feared creating a fourth column should strife with the British explode out of control. As a result they turned towards negotiations with the Barzanis which ultimately saw Ahmed's new religion granted protected status, and his special role as leader of the religion accepted, allowing him to maintain both religious and secular powers as long as he swore allegiance to the Porte and abandoned support for Kurdish Nationalism outside the bounds of the Ottoman Empire, conditions which he and his family were swift to accept (16).

    The defeat of the Saud family ensured the ascendancy of the Hashemites as rulers of Arabia, but it did not gain them full control of the peninsula. Kuwait lay to the northeast and the Trucial States in the east, both British dominions, while to the south lay the greatly weakened Idrisid Emirate of Asir, whose own southern frontier had itself become the target of the Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen. In the north lay the massive domains of the ever threatening Ottoman Empire and the still-contested lands of Palestine, whose British occupiers caused endless headaches for the region's putative Arab rulers in Mecca. Faced with these challenges, King Hussein placed his trust in his eldest son Ali to lead the conflict against the Idrisids, a task which he took up with great eagerness. Over the course of early 1925 Ali secured control of large swathes of the Emirate, personally riding into battle and leading his men from the front. However, it would also be this eagerness which resulted in disaster when Ali's forces ran into the advancing Yemenis, who had just recently secured control of the town of Hudayah.

    In the bloody skirmish which resulted the Crown Prince was shot from his horse, gravely wounded, although the Hashemites would emerge victorious and secure control of the town. It was at Hudayah that Ali ibn al-Husayn ibn Ali al-Hashemi would die at the age of 45, throwing what had previously been a secure succession into crisis. Entering his 70s at the time, and under great pressure, King Hussein would grieve the loss of his eldest son bitterly while concluding that his ten-year old grandson was far too young for the burdens of leadership. As a result, Hussein turned to his second son, Abdullah, as his chosen successor and began to lay the ground work for passing on power to his heir. The death of Ali was to lay the seeds for the bitter rivalry between the Yemeni and Arab Kingdoms which emerged during the latter half of the decade - as constant raids and counter-raids saw much of the borderlands depopulated between the two states. Border clashes also proved common on the borders with the British domains later in the decade, with the Trucial States a constant source of tension, particularly upon the arrival of Muhammad al-Saud in Abu Dhabi on the 8th of November 1928. Once there, the 18 year old soon began leading raids into his father's former domains, clashing constantly with Hashemite forces before retreating back into the Trucial States and to the bosom of the British when pursued.

    King Hussein and King Abdullah, who ascended to the throne following his father's incapacitation to a stroke in 1930 and subsequent death the following year, proved stalwart promoters of Islamic Modernism in line with the position held by Caliph Abdulmejid in Istanbul and were hardcore supporters of Pan-Arabism, dreaming of the day that all Arabs would be united under one banner as had been the case of the early Caliphates. They relied on imams who preached the need for a restoration of the family of Muhammed to ruling authority, and were strong supporters of a modernized code of Sharia which would be able to cope with the challenges of the modern world. They looked to ideologues like Mohammed Iqbal, Syed Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Abduh, Radhid Rida and Hassan al-Banna as restorers of the Mu'tazila school of Islamic thought, and sought to use this rationalist school of thought to combat the fanaticism of the Wahabis who remained implacable enemies of the Hashemite cause. Additionally, during this time the Hashemites were to invite German prospectors to aid in the development of a nascent Arab oil industry, but returns proved slight for the costs involved and such efforts were eventually discontinued before too long (17).

    Despite Arabia's hostile borders, the area which would present the greatest trouble to King Hussein was to prove Palestine, where the need to appease the British out of Arab self-preservation clashed head-on with the infuriating arrogance of the British occupation forces. In 1921, the British had intervened in the election of the Mufti of Jerusalem by securing the election of Amin al-Husseini, without consultation with the Hashemites, following the death of his half-brother Kamil. This, in spite of the clear majority held by members of the powerful and influential Nashashibi Clan, as the British believed Amin to be less tied to power structures independent of their authority. While the British choice to put their trust in Amin would prove to be a gross miscalculation, it nevertheless underlined the British commitment to Palestine and marked just the latest of countless interventions in how the region was governed.

    Over the course of the 1920s, as ever more Jews migrated to Palestine as part of the Zionist experiment, tensions between the British and Jews on one hand and the local Palestinians and their Arab leaders on the other worsened dramatically. While the Hashemites were largely focused on developments elsewhere earlier in the decade, the locals had protested, and on several occasions even rioted, against their British occupiers - often targeting recently settled Jewish settlements who fought back with astonishing vehemence. Elections held by the British in 1923 were widely boycotted by the Arab populace as a breach on the kingdom's sovereignty, resulting in the formation of a representative board ostensibly staffed by six Jews and six Arabs, but largely neglected by the Arabs under the argument that equal representation between the two ethnic groups made little sense considering the fact that the Jews constituted a small minority in Palestine.

    As relations worsened and ever more Jews poured into Palestine, particularly from the Don Republic whose Jews found themselves persecuted into exodus, some settling in America while most fled north to the Russian Communist regime and a significant minority travelled to Palestine, demonstrations and riots grew to be endemic, with access to the Western Wall in Jerusalem emerged as the most bitterly contested issue. During this time, the British had reduced their deployments in the region significantly as various colonial fires drew British forces away. As a result, when riots broke out in August of 1929 between Jews and Arabs there was a severe lack of British troops to maintain order. As a result, Jewish property was looted and destroyed, with more than 200 Jews killed and an equal number injured, the majority of whom had been unarmed and were murdered in their homes, while half a dozen Arabs were killed. The 1929 Riots were to have a galvanizing effect upon the Jewish population, who rapidly armed and trained themselves into small self-defense forces to protect themselves since the British had shown themselves incapable.

    This crisis also served as the impetus for the Hashemites to act, drumming up international outrage at the situation through their German connections in a bid to develop an anti-British push which could end their occupation of Palestine. Over the course of 1929-32 these efforts proved incessant, with continued communal violence between Jews and Arabs marking the period, even as the Jewish populace swelled ever further and Palestinians, tired of the incessant conflict, moved across the Jordan River or south into the Hejaz.

    Ultimately, it would be the Two Rivers Crisis and subsequent political, diplomatic and colonial turmoil which enabled the Hashemites to enact their plans. King Abdullah began to put intense diplomatic pressure upon the British High Commissioner of Palestine as the Two Rivers Crisis heated up, hinting at Arab willingness to ally with the Ottomans should it allow them to recover Palestine, in the process threatening to act against the major oil-producing domains in South Mesopotamia and along the Persian Gulf Coast. This served as the impetus for the series of negotiations which occurred concurrently with the Split Conference in Cairo, eventually resulting in the signing of the Treaty of Cairo on the 18th of May 1933 which saw Palestine established as an independent state from the Hashemite Kingdom under the rule of Abdullah's comparatively anglophile brother Faisal as a Constitutional Monarch, with strict protections established for the Jewish population of Palestine, and the end of the British military occupation of Palestine outside of the Suez (18).

    Egypt's newfound independence was to prove heady for its population. While the economic turmoil which had fuelled much of the resistance to the British occupation continued to a lesser extent for the few years following the adoption of the new constitution in 1921, starvation was avoided and political engagement soon began to grow. The Wafd Party's resounding victory in the 1921 elections meant that King Faud had no choice but to ask Zaghloul to form a new government. He did so on 27 January 1922, and Zaghloul was named Prime Minister of Egypt soon after. As prime minister, Zaghloul carefully selected a cross-section of Egyptian society for his cabinet, which he called the "People's Ministry" and on 15 March 1922, King Faud opened the first Egyptian constitutional parliament amid national rejoicing. As British forces retreated, Zaghloul was faced with a series of major tasks before him: a gendarmerie and armed military had to be formed independent of British forces, the wider state bureaucracy had to be extended across the nation and a functioning multi-party democracy had to be fostered.

    Over the first four years of the new state's lifespan, Zaghloul worked constantly to further these goals while seeking to avoid the pitfalls which might bring back British oversight. In the political arena, new parties proliferated - from the Liberal Constitutional Party under Adli Yakan Pasha and the Modernist-Islamist Union Party (Ittihad Party) under Mohamed Tawfik Naseem Pasha to the Islamic-Conservative National Party (Watani Party) under Mohammad Hafiz Ramadan Bey and the Egyptian Socialist Party under Hosni al-Arabi, while economically the vast Egyptian agricultural industry recovered from its war-time woes. In foreign policy matters, the Egyptians provided covert aid for the Hashemites, who enjoyed widespread sympathy amongst the governing elites, while relations with the British were maintained, if strained and with considerable difficulty.

    The most significant cause of tension within the Anglo-Egyptian relationship lay to the south, in the Sudan, where authority was diffuse and unclear. Ostensibly, Sudan had been conquered under Egyptian auspices, and the region was officially an extension of the Egyptian state, but following the Mahdist Revolt in the late 19th century, matters had become a lot more complicated. As part of the conflict which ensued, the British moved ever more forces southward, until the Sudan had come firmly under British control. In 1899, the region had been established as a joint Anglo-Egyptian condominium under which Sudan was to officially be administered by a governor-general appointed by Egypt with British consent - although in effect the region was effectively managed by the British as an imperial possession. From 1924 onwards, the British essentially divided Sudan into two separate territories, a predominantly Muslim Arabic-speaking north, and a predominantly Animist and Christian south, where the use of English was encouraged by Christian missionaries, whose main role was instructional.

    The continued British occupation of Sudan fuelled an increasingly strident nationalist backlash in Egypt, with Egyptian nationalist leaders determined to force Britain to recognize a single independent union of Egypt and Sudan. With the formal end of the legal fiction of Ottoman sovereignty in 1914, Hussein Kamel was declared Sultan of Egypt and Sudan, as was his brother Faud I who succeeded him. The insistence of a single Egyptian-Sudanese state persisted when the Sultanate was re-titled the Kingdom of Egypt and Sudan, but the British continued to frustrate these efforts. While the British had removed their forces from Egypt proper, the vast majority of the soldiers had simply been shifted south to Sudan instead, where Egyptian administrative efforts were rapidly phased out by British colonial bureaucrats. In 1924 an attempted insurrection by the Sudanese nationalist White Flag League nearly sent Egypt and Great Britain to war with each other, while sporadic Sudanese nationalist uprisings occurred on a regular basis throughout the decade.

    By the end of the decade, the tensions over Sudan had resulted in the election of a coalition government between the Ittihad and Watani parties under Mohamed Tawfik Naseem Pasha after the Wafd Party's Mostafa el-Nahhas, who had taken up leadership after the death of Zaghloul in 1927, proved unsatisfactory in his dedication to securing Sudan. The new governmental alliance would also draw on a radical paramilitary movement known as the Green Shirts, notable for their rabid anti-Westernism, admiration for Integralist states and proponents of an Islamized version of integralism, to provide a populist heft to their efforts. The negotiation of a trade deal between Britain and America in the middle of the decade had also seen Egyptian profits from food exports decrease, as American agricultural products flooded into African markets, where Egyptian food product had previously been popular, creating a further economic incentive to breaking with the British. As famine slowly came to grip both British Africa and South Mesopotamia, the Egyptian government became increasingly active along their southern border, massing troops and openly demanding the restoration of the Anglo-Egyptian condominium according to the written word of the contract.

    While the British played for time, having been forced to dispatch considerable forces from their East African domains to deal with matters in South Mesopotamia, the jingoistic rhetoric rose in Egypt. Calls for an alliance with the Ottomans against the British by Green Shirt leaders led to the further fortification of the Suez Canal, while maneuvers along the Egyptian-Sudanese border saw the British colonial forces overstretched and the outbreak of popular unrest in Khartoum. Nevertheless, the signing of the Treaty of Split and swift resolution of matters in Persia was to spell the demise for the Egyptian endeavour, as bickering and infighting, as well as significant indecisiveness on the part of Mohammed Tawfik Naseem Pasha, meant that the ideal moment for action was lost. The British rushed forces back into Sudan and the Suez, using their settlement of the Palestinian issue to muster troops along the Canal in open challenge to the Egyptians. This failure to act was to spell the doom of the coalition, which fell apart soon after and led to the election of the Liberal Constitutionalist Party and the adoption of an Anglophile political position for the middle years of the 1930s (19).

    Footnotes:
    (13) While Pessian might have had greater ambitions at an earlier point, by 1930, when the British financing cut out for the first time, he came to the understanding that his situation was untenable in the long term. This began the years-long process of squirreling away money in Swiss bank accounts, which escalated during 1932 and took on a feverish pace in 1933. Pessian would not have been able to pay the Gendarmes long-term even if he spent all of his resources on the effort, so while he probably could have prolonged his hold on power for another year or two, he decides to cut bait and run as soon as he has extracted what wealth he can get away with - leaving everyone else holding the bag.

    (14) Basically, with Pessian gone, the whole state collapses like a house of cards. Mashad, once the heart of religiosity, finds itself amongst the most fervently anti-clerical while Teymourtash and Davar are able to make good with the Socialists by easing their conquest of the rest of Persia. By the end, all that needs to be done is bring Hormozgan to order and to drive the British out. So far there have not been any violent clashes between armed forces of the British and Socialists, only the British against local protestors, so we now get to the most dangerous part internationally. Note, the British stand to lose their grip on Persia/Iran entirely if they play this out wrong.

    (15) The British finally get out of something intact, in fact they have been able to strengthen their influence in the Persian Gulf with the acquisition of the Island of Hormuz. While losing the island results in a loss of prestige for the Tudeh government, it is more than made up for by the resolution of the crisis in as swift a manner as possible. This allows the Iranians to turn their attentions firmly towards governmental reforms and modernization. While a lot of these initiatives are similar to those passed by Reza Shah IOTL, they are quite a bit more radical - particularly in regards to their policy towards minorities and women. We also see how the Iranians are increasingly tied together with the wider Third International, and we see the establishment of the first major non-Socialist party in the form of Iranian Democratic People' Party. Tudeh actually draws on a number of politicians from the IDPP to aid in the development of their ministries, as these political figures have quite a bit of governing experience from their time under the Pessian and Qajar regimes, whereas the Socialists have been newcomers to the field of governance. This helps drastically increase the effectiveness of governmental affairs. Finally, we get some hints at the troubled Kurdish relations which we will deal with next.

    (16) This is a mishmash of various Kurdish revolts and clashes playing out differently based on the changes which have occurred IOTL. The Simko Shikak Rebellion was a lot larger and influential ITTL, and as such it has a lot larger impact on the Kurdish movement. The changes to the borders, most significantly the surrender of Ardabil to the Ottomans, also means that the Kurds are primarily gathered under one banner - that of the Ottomans. Their struggles for independence play out primarily in northern Kurdistan, with the south falling ever further under the authority of the Barzanis - most significantly the more than a little mentally ill Shaykh Ahmed Barzani. Ibrahim Heski is a lot more prominent ITTL than IOTL and ends up as one of the greatest national heroes of the Kurds. Meanwhile, in the south Ahmed is able to consolidate his hold on power over the region and even secure Ottoman acceptance of his beliefs. I should probably mention here that the whole Shaykh Ahmed declaring himself God is actually OTL.

    (17) The Hashemite-Yemeni border is pretty close to that of OTL following the partition of the Emirate of Asir while the Trucial States find themselves part of a significant conflict. Following the end of their immediate conquests, the Hashemites are actually quite a bit more hostile along their borders than the Saudis were IOTL, clashing along the border of the Trucial States, South Mesopotamia and in Yemen. The death of Ali allows Abdullah to ascend the throne - he seems to have been the one best suited to playing the game of statesmanship IOTL, so that should be a good step forward for the Arab state. It is notable that most of Saudi Arabia's OTL oil reserves are actually under either the Trucial States (modern United Arab Emirates) or the expanded Kuwait which never lost its southern lands to the Saudis where a good deal of Saudi Arabia's oil is found. The Hashemites also follow a similar path to that of the Ottoman Caliphate in that they turn towards reformers and modernizers of Islam for inspiration - in this case as a way of challenging and defeating the reactionary Wahabist movement.

    (18) Palestine plays out similarly, but in a divergent manner, to OTL given the changed circumstances. The British are in a much more tricky position, as they are ostensibly in breach of international law due to their continued occupation of Palestine and their continued support for Jewish migration does nothing to aid in reducing tensions. I had considered having a major revolt like that which occurred in Iraq IOTL to get Faisal his throne, but felt that given the political situation just the threat should be sufficient to get the British to give up control after the Two Rivers Crisis debacle. While this result does not conform with the pan-Arab ambitions held by Abdullah, it is viewed as an intermediate stage which will allow the Arabian Kingdom to extend its influence without direct annexation until a more auspicious time emerges. The Arabian negotiators also believe that once the British are gone they can always withdraw the rights granted to local Jews, so they are more than willing to accept such regulations for the time being. After resolving matters in Palestine, Abdullah's gaze turns firmly towards the Trucial States which he hopes to one day include in his domains. At this point many are wondering if the British colonial empire will collapse in on itself and they are likely to pounce the moment they spot weakness.

    (19) Sorry about how long this section got, but I felt that it was necessary to illustrate that while things are better in Egypt than IOTL, events are still troubled. One happy development is that political stability is a lot better, with people serving out all or most of their terms as Prime Minister. Additionally, the famously corrupt Mostafa el-Nahhas is kept from political power for the time being and the Young Egyptians do not emerge as an independent political party (for now), but remain an ultra-nationalistic paramilitary movement willing to cooperate with their more moderate right-wing fellows. The Muslim Brotherhood, while not mentioned here, gets off to a good start as well with greater support for their Modernist Islamism. Tensions with the British are significant, and the two states have nearly come to blows on more than one occasion, but ultimately a conflict is averted for the time being and more moderate voices are able to secure power, allowing for a more peaceful period of development.

    493px-Nguy%E1%BB%85n_Th%C3%A1i_H%E1%BB%8Dc.jpg

    Nguyen Thai Hoc, Founder and Leader of the Viet Quoc

    The Indochinese Revolt​

    While overshadowed in its immediate international impact by the Two Rivers Crisis and out-scaled by the sheer immensity of the African Famine, the Tonkin Rising and the wider Indochinese Revolt would come to be considered one of the most impactful and long-lasting colonial crises of the period. Although quiescent since the 1917 Thai Nguyen Rebellion, by the last years of the 1920s Indochina, in particular Tonkin and Annam, had turned into a seething cauldron of anti-French sentiment. Economic exploitation, racism and the deprivation of national symbols by the French colonial overlords resulted in a number of growing nationalist movements. Most significant of these were the Nationalist Party of Vietnam, abbreviated as Viet Quoc, and the Indochinese Communist Party, formed from the merger of smaller Communist parties in the various states of Indochina in late 1930, most significantly the Communist Party of Vietnam, whose increasing push towards independence were to set off the Indochinese Revolt.

    The Viet Quoc, founded in 1928, was a party modelled on Sun Yat-Sen's Kuomintang with a strong leftist bent, the issue of whether to officially promote an international revolution or limiting the party's goals to the national self-determination of the Vietnamese being a key issue early in the party's development. In 1929 it was to encounter its first major challenge when elements of the party, led by Nguyen Van Vien, suggested assassinating the bitterly unpopular colonial official Alfred Bazin whose systematic abuses of the Indochinese labor recruitment system had seen him labelled as little better than a "Jaunier", a Yellow-Slave Trader, who recruited Vietnamese for work around the French colonial empire under horrific working conditions and with little remuneration, with recruitment often including beatings and coercion as recruiting foremen were paid commissions for each recruit. The leader of the Viet Quoc, Ngyuen Thai Hoc, however felt the killing of individuals to be pointless and any such actions likely to simply prompt a crackdown by the colonial security forces, which could well spell the doom of the party.

    Angered at having been turned down, Vien secured handguns from the party's head of armed affairs, Pham Thanh Duong, and set out to assassinate Bazin in late February 1929. Had it not been for a leak by some of Vien's compatriots to the party organization the assassination would most likely have gone through, but due to the betrayal of his plans Vien and an accomplice were caught by Viet Quoc members and spirited away. When it emerged that Duong had supplied the hand guns for the planned assassination, he was taken into custody by members of the paramilitary wing of the party and questioned. After inconsistencies in his story emerged, he was questioned much more harshly wherefrom it soon emerged that Duong had collaborated with the French colonial authorities, leaking information about the party to security officials in Hanoi. On learning of this, Hoc and other leaders in the party collectively voted in favour of Duong's execution, which occurred just outside a small hamlet in the Red River Delta. Vien and his followers, having learned of Duong's treachery, committed themselves to the Viet Quoc once more, accepting the guidance of the leadership, in the process bringing an end to the immediate crisis (20).

    As the Viet Quoc gathered strength over the following year, events elsewhere, fuelled in part by the agitations of the Communist Party of Vietnam and in part by growing unrest in Annam, set the stage for the starting shots of the Indochinese Revolt. During the 1920s, the economic exploitation of the local populace grew increasingly harsh as not only the colonial administration but also the local mandarinate intensified their repressive efforts targeting the peasantry as corruption and widespread unfair treatment of the common peoples by local notables and mandarins proliferated. Already in mid-1929, there had been a campaign of pagoda-burning in villages across Amman and Tonkin as radical leftists set aflame symbols of superstition and exploitation. At the same time they set about enacting a mobilisation of labor and the peasantry in the region under the leadership of Communist students, mostly concentrated in the provinces of Nghe An and Ha Tinh in northern Amman, with the mass organisation of the peoples being undertaken through the establishment of trade unions, peasants association, women's groups and youth organisations.

    In March of 1930, five strikes occurred in the provincial capital of Nghe An, Vinh, before spreading to Ben Thuy and the surrounding rural districts. Here peasants issued comprehensive lists of demands which included a moratorium on the payment of personal taxes, an end to corvée labor and for rich landowners to return communal lands which they had taken into use against the wishes of the local populace. When these demands were ignored, the protests and demonstrations escalated and soon spread across the provincial border to Ha Tinh. As May Day neared, the Annam Regional Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party set about planning three major demonstrations across Nghe An as part of the worldwide effort to celebrate and protest on behalf of international labor. However, when these three demonstrations began in late April they were met with violence when French-led native gendarmes fired into the crowds, killing a total of 27 men, women and children while injuring many more. However, rather than scare off the protestors, this was to result in a precipitous increase in civil disorder (21).

    Following the suppression of the late April protests, events took on an ever more feverish pace in Nghe An and Ha Tinh. In August, attacks against county offices and particularly the depots of the French alcohol monopoly, a hated colonial institution which banned the Vietnamese from producing their own alcohol and enforced the sale of wine produced by the state and monopoly holders, escalated while pagoda-burnings spiked. On the 12th of September a mass demonstration in Hurng Nguyen, near Vinh, saw the deployment of a squadron of planes to repress the strikes at the orders of the Resident-Superior of Annam Aristide Eugène Le Fol, resulting in the dropping of six bombs on the demonstrators which killed nearly 200 people and wounded hundreds more.

    This sudden increase in repression and violence against largely unarmed demonstrators severely escalated matters, resulting in mass demonstrations and an outcry at the royal court in Hue. Nghe An in particular exploded in rage as repression intensified and their demands were ignored. Peasants and workers demonstrated against county offices and military posts, burned down administrative buildings, town halls and railway stations, destroyed tax registers and pillaged police stations. While some mandarins and village notables took a conciliatory stance towards the movement either through fear or sympathy, many fled or found themselves targets of the enraged murderous mobs. During this period of time the target of outrage were not so much the French, but rather the indigenous landlords, mandarins and native officials who staffed the lower echelons of the colonial administration.

    Caught by surprise at the sudden collapse of order in Nghe An, soon to spread to Ha Tinh, the French authorities mustered French Foreign Legion and French-led Vietnamese troops to reoccupy forts used at the turn of the century for pacification campaigns in the region and established new forts, with 68 military posts in Nghe An and 54 in Ha Tinh under construction by the start of 1931. Repressive methods exploded as makeshift concentration camps were established and protestors were subjected to summary executions, arrests and detentions. French actions were characterised by incredibly violence and brutality with widespread use of Aerial bombardments and the firing of machine guns against demonstrators by the end of 1930 as the colonial administration sought to terrorize the populace into submission (21).

    However, as the thinly-spread French forces consolidated in the two Annam provinces, colonial forces were shrinking precipitously elsewhere in the country. This was the development which Nguyen Thai Hoc and the Viet Quoc had been waiting for. During the nearly two years between the abortive assassination of Bazin and the Tonkin Rising, the Viet Quoc had massively expanded their influence and support throughout Tonkin while creating ties to other movements both in exile and elsewhere in Indochina. Under the leadership of Hoc and other leaders, such as Nguyen The Nghiep, Nguyen Khac Nhu, Pho Duc Chinh and Nguyen Dac Bang, the party had infiltrated military garrisons across the region, building a significant following amongst local troops and a wide base of support both in the urban and rural districts of Tonkin. In fact, the party had secured so large of a following that when the Indochinese Communist Party united under the leadership of Nguyen Ai Quoc in October of 1930, the representatives from the Communist Party of Indochina, which drew most its support from Tonkin, could only justify their low membership by the fact that their position in the region had been usurped by the Viet Quoc.

    Over the course of 1930, as the situation in Nghe An and Ha Tinh deteriorated, the prospective rebels prepared themselves. Vietnamese warrant officers, who proved remarkably susceptible to Viet Quoc entreaties, had largely been left in command of Tonkin military posts as their French commanders were rushed south to deal with the Nghe-Tinh Revolt, while homemade bomb-production factories were set up in various hamlets near Hanoi, arms were smuggled in from across the Chinese border and fallback positions were prepared in the forested and mountainous provinces of Hoa Binh, Yen Bai and Phu Tho north and west of Hanoi. Arsenals were identified and key positions in the French colonial administration were identified for elimination alongside the identities and locations of major French colonial figures throughout Tonkin, most prominently the Resident-Superior of Tonkin Auguste Eugène Ludovic Tholance.

    The discovery of Duong's treachery had a profound impact on the Viet Quoc, who implemented stringent compartmentalisation and prohibited those with knowledge of the plans from moving about alone to prevent any further leaks, resulting in the French authorities losing sight of the party organisation just as it was exploding in popularity. The plan came to focus on a series of military strikes and armed mutinies which would throw the Protectorate of Tonkin into chaos and provoke a more general uprising while opening up a path for exiled members of the Indochinese resistance to re-enter Tonkin and join the uprising. In late 1930, the Viet Quoc leadership set up a provisional government to lead the resistance, with Hoc named as President, Nhu as Vice President, Chinh as interior minister and Nghiep as minister of military affairs. Finally, after nearly a year of preparation, as French authorities had turned their sights fully towards the Nghe-Tinh provinces, on the 18th of January 1931, the Viet Quoc rebels began to act. The Tonkin Rising had begun (22).

    Coordinated so as to occur early in the morning on the 18th, the Viet Quoc rebels struck dozens of locations within hours of each other. In Yen Bai, the critical fort which held control over the upper Red River Valley, men and women led by Nguyen Khac Nhu had entered the garrison town the previous day under the pretence of pilgrimage carrying bombs, pistols, scimitars and insignias hidden under religious objects such as incense and flowers to be offered at the alters of the prominent local pilgrimage sites. From there, the group split for prepared safe houses and made contact with the sympathetic soldiers in the local garrison to coordinate their actions. Just after midnight the Viet Quoc fighters were allowed into the inner fortifications, wherefrom one group infiltrated the infantry barracks and began killing the French NCOs while rallying their sympathetic native subordinates to action, a second group attacked the fort's headquarters while a third entered the officers quarters. Caught by surprise, the French NCOs were killed before they could put up a fight and native warrant officers soon began to rally their men to the Viet Quoc cause, while placing those who refused under arrest. Overrunning the poorly defended headquarters, the Viet Quoc were able to secure control of the fort's armoury, passing out rifles and grenades before rushing to aid the group fighting in the Officers Quarters where the attackers had found themselves bogged down in a firefight with the severely outnumbered French officers. The arrival of reinforcements allowed for the defenders to be crushed, and as the sun rose bloody against the horizon the Viet Quoc Banner flew high from the battlements and word of the actions spread rapidly through the town.

    In Hanoi, Resident-Superior Auguste Tholance's home was attacked, his bodyguards overpowered, and he himself beheaded in a daring morning strike even as attacks across the city targeting colonial officials and the Security Forces, whose headquarters were set alight, were carried out. The noted revolutionary hero Phan Boi Chau was released from his house arrest in the hopes of using him as a better known rallying figure. Arsenals were attacked and broken open across the state of Tonkin while indigenous warrant officers led their men in mutinies across the region including, importantly, along the Chinese border with Yunnan, where Nguyen The Nghiep led a ragtag force much like that present at Yen Bai in overrunning a series of border post in coordination with local soldiers and Vietnamese exiles on the Chinese side of the border. Haiphong, Bac Ninh, Mong Cai, Nam Dinh and Lang Son were all the targets of attacks on the 18th, most of which were met with success, although in Nam Dinh garrison forces had received word of attacks elsewhere and were able to drive off the attackers following a day of bloody fighting. Later in the day, forces in Hanoi converged on the local airfield, overrunning the poorly defended area and securing control of the province's airplanes as well as a large shipment of arms, which had been prepared for shipment to Nghe-Tinh.

    Word of the numerous, coordinated attacks spread like wildfire through Tonkin and led to spontaneous jubilant protests and demonstrations, as colonial administrative buildings were attacked by violent mobs and the colonial state bureaucracy shattered to pieces, many employees of the colonial administration fleeing for their lives if they could make their escape. Within a week, exiled Vietnamese Communists and Viet Quoc fighters, who had been participating in the South China conflict in Yunnan, crossed over the border, bringing combat experience and a large supply of arms with them. As garrison town after garrison town fell to the Viet Quoc, French efforts to respond lagged precipitously. The death of the Resident-Superior at the start of the Rising and the subsequent disruption of the bureaucracy as dozens of French officials were killed alongside hundreds of their local subordinates caused a break in the chain of command which greatly hindered the colonial administration's response, only finding resolution in early February when the Aristide Le Fol in Hue took command of the situation.

    The outbreak of a general revolt in Tonkin was to have precipitous effects elsewhere, as the Nghe-Tihn Revolt intensified, with the Song Ca Valley in the western reaches of Nghe An and eastern Ha Tinh became a focal point for massive protests and open rebellion, with locals attacking French Foreign Legion forces with scimitars and farm implements for lack of proper arms, resulting in nearly a thousand deaths on the side rebels by the end of the week. Emboldened by events in Tonkin, Vinh saw its largest popular uprising yet, with many thousands marching through the streets calling for the French to leave Vietnam, destroying symbols of authority and raiding the provincial capitol in spite of bloody resistance, where the newly-appointed pro-French governor Nguyen Khoa Ky's mutilated body was hung from a window alongside his closest aides. In Hue, sympathetic Vietnamese marched through the streets carrying the Viet Quoc Banner and calling for the expulsion of all foreigners only to be met by a hail of bullets from the French colonial garrison forces. As the embers of revolt spread ever further southward, the French found themselves racing to contain the crisis while terrified cables sped around the globe for Paris (23).

    While French colonial troops were rushed to Indochina from Africa and the Metropole, the situation in the region went from bad to worse. In Hue, the Resident-Superior Le Fol forced the royal court to issue a condemnation of the protests and uprising at what amounted to gun point, the young Emperor Bao Dai still being in France for his education at the Paris Institute of Political Studies and thus unable to direct much of anything in Vietnam, to little effect, as Le Fol's heavy-handed approach had made the coercion behind this condemnation clear to all.

    On the 11th of February, a dog fight erupted between French and Viet Quoc fighters, the latter having secured enough volunteer pilots to man the planes in Hanoi, catching the French by surprise and downing two of their planes. In Hanoi and Haiphong, the Viet Quoc were able to secure control of the two vital cities while imprisoning the French and their collaborators in the administration while mass recruitment campaigns were undertaken by the Viet Quoc government in a bid to prepare themselves for the inevitable French counterattack. The formation of ad hoc Catholic militias at the instigation of the French by Catholic landlords and their fellow religious compatriots caused a good deal of initial trouble, but were soon repressed with considerable violence, setting the stage for continual suspicions of the Catholic population by the Viet Quoc revolutionary establishment.

    In early March, Viet Quoc forces felt themselves strong enough to push southward into Annam, having largely swept Tonkin of opposition to their revolt and secured a major increase in manpower and military supplies before they rushed into Nghe-Tinh. Once again, the French overreliance on indigenous forces to control Indochina would come back to bite them, as regiment after regiment of Vietnamese soldiers turned their guns on their officers and the situation collapsed into chaos. With the situation collapsing in the two provinces, the French found themselves forced into further retreat, gradually falling back through Ha Tinh and Quang Binh before defensive positions could be strengthened north of Hue itself near the end of May. It was at this time that vitally important rushed French reinforcements arrived on the frontlines, mainly consisting of African tirailleurs but also proper French combat units, who were able to hold off the Viet Quoc assault. The French colonial government would also begin mass conscription of Laotian and Khmer to serve in their conflict with the Vietnamese, viewing these secondary Indochinese population groups as a much more trustworthy alternative to the Vietnamese auxiliaries who had dominated the French colonial security forces in Indochina in the past.

    During these months, even as Nguyen The Nghiep was leading the Viet Quoc armies southward, the Viet Quoc government was scrambling to create a semi-functioning state bureaucracy out of the ashes of their revolution while strengthening popular support for their movement. Hanoi, which had by this time come fully under Viet Quoc control, was declared the capital of the Republic of Viet-Nam with the illustrious Phan Boi Chau replacing Hoc as President - although the role was reduced to what was effectively a ceremonial position, while Hoc himself took up leadership of the government as Prime Minister and Leader of the Viet Quoc Party. Nhu remained as Vice President and was given the additional post as Foreign Minister, a task which he would take to with gusto, working to establish diplomatic ties to China, Japan and particularly Soviet Russia. In the meanwhile Pho Duc Chinh took on the responsibility of rebuilding the state apparatus by recruiting heavily from amongst the party's membership, radical student activists and the more popular members of the mandarinate, although the last of these groups saw their position significantly weakened and were often placed in advisory positions to much younger and more radical ministers and administrators rather than actual positions of power, with mixed results.

    During this time Hoc was able to convince the prominent unaffiliated independence leader Nguyen An Ninh to join the efforts of the Tonkin Rising, where he took charge of the complicated and often contentious negotiations with the various minorities who populated the mountainous Tonkin interior - working with Tai tribal leaders, Yao communal figures and, much less successfully, the local Lao population. These efforts, while troubled and often bound up in intricate negotiations were to prove wildly successful, catapulting An Ninh to a position of real prominence, although he remained unwilling to actually join the Viet Quoc Party, and would in time ensure the viability of the Tonkin Rising even after the French were able to concentrate their efforts against Tonkin.

    The arrival of French naval forces saw the shelling of Haiphong and the landing of French marines in early May, but they were driven off by artillery pieces and machine gun fire from arms collected from various depots around Tonkin with heavy losses. With the French requiring time to train up their army of Khmer and Lao conscripts to spearhead the planned counterattack, the conflict experienced a lull over the course of the summer of 1931, a course of events which allowed the Indochinese Communist Party to come to an agreement with the Viet Quoc on the formation of a United Revolutionary Front against the French, resulting in Nguyen Ai Quoc arrival in Hanoi by way of Yunnan, where he had been fighting alongside the Jiaxing Communists prior to the Tonkin Rising, and his appointment as Minister of Military Affairs, replacing Nghiep who was spending most of his time in the field anyway and was unable to keep up with all of his duties as a result. The expansion of the government into a United Revolutionary Front was to result in an important development, the extension of the revolutionary movement to Cochinchina in the south (24).

    To understand the Cochinchina Rising of 1931, it is necessary to comprehend the conglomerate nature of the Indochinese Communist Party. The origins of the ICP lay in 1925 when Nguyen Ai Quoc and other socialists founded the Vietnamese Revolutionary Youth League in Canton, which aimed to accomplish the end of the colonial occupation and redistribute land to working peasants. The weak government authority in southern China allowed the Youth League to prosper and build a strong following amongst exiled Vietnamese before being forced underground with the Jiaxing Communists where after they involved themselves in the political strife within the Chinese left-wing. With this loss of contact, the various Communist cells around Indochina began to splinter off while others formed independent Communist organisations, the Communist Party of Indochina in Tonkin was formed from delegates of the Youth League dissatisfied at the leadership's focus on the Chinese struggle, while the Communist Party of Annam was formed from a separate faction of the Youth League in Annam.

    A third communist group emerged from a rival organization to the Youth League, the New Vietnam Revolutionary Party, which, under the leadership of the impressive radical female leader Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, had emerged as the most significant Communist movement in Cochinchina. Minh Khai would secure the cooperation of Tran Phu, a prominent member of the Youth League who had been running an independent organization before joining the Youth League, and together established the Communist League of Indochina, forming the fourth major communist faction in Indochina prior to 1930 in the process. It was this Communist League of Indochina which was to prove the decisive actor in the Cochinchina Rising.

    Prior to the outbreak of revolts in Nghe An and Ha Tinh, the Communist Party of Indochina, the Communist Party of Annam and the Youth League had been able to unite under the banner of the Communist Party of Vietnam at a Unification Conference held in February of 1930 in Hong Kong, where Ai Quoc was acknowledged as leader of the party. It was only in late 1930 that the Communist League even began to contemplate joining the CPV, culminating in the merger of the Communist League with the CPV to form the Indochinese Communist Party, the Communist League leadership having felt that the original name was too limited in scope for the objectives of the movement. As the Tonkin Rising came under way and events quickly spun out of control, the leadership in Cochinchina, primarily formed from former Communist League leaders, began to form self-defense forces and to recruit guerilla troops in the big factories of Saigon and its surrounding countryside, stealing arms shipments as they entered port in the south and enlisting sympathetic locals across the flat plains of Cochinchina in hopes of feeding off the northern chaos for their own rising. Finally, nearly a year after joining the ICP, the leaders of the Cochinchina Rising were ready.

    Even as the French forces were preparing for their great spring offensive north of Hue, the factories of Saigon ground to a halt on the 3rd of November as a general strike was launched across both Saigon and the nearby Cholon while assassinations, bombings and attacks on military and police posts occurred across the state. Within a day, the situation had turned in the favor of the rebels as arsenals were captured and the flag of Vietnam, the Viet Quoc's White Star in a Blue Circle on a Red Field, was flown from the governor's mansion. A sudden second uprising in the south greatly alarmed the French leadership and led the commander-in-chief of operations in Indochina, General Charles Huntziger, to abort the original planned Tonkin Offensive in favor of snuffing out the Cochinchina Rising in its cradle. It would take another two days before the French were able to bring to bear their massive superiority of arms, beginning the Battles of Saigon and Cholon which were to last until the new year, as the Communist defenders rallied the populations of the two cities to resist their colonial masters in the face of wave after wave of Khmer and Laotian conscripts.

    The fighting was bloody, intense and unceasing, with every block of buildings fought over and massive casualty numbers amongst the civilian population. For two horrific months, the Communists were able to keep the two cities in the fight, but on the 8th of January Cholon finally fell to the French, with many of the leaders executed - although Pho Tran, the top leader in the city, and Ha Huy Tap, another prominent leader, were able to escape into the countryside - while Saigon fell on the 14th as forces from Cholon arrived to support their fellow besiegers. Vo Van Tan, the most prominent of the male leaders in Saigon, was executed on his capture alongside Nguyen Van Cur, while Le Hong Phong and Minh Khai herself were able to make their escape as well. From here, the survivors of the Cochinchina Rising would try to make their way north, during which Pho Tran was identified, captured and executed as well. Finally, on the 27nd of March 1932 Minh Khai, Le Hong Phong and Ha Huy Tap would emerge from the jungles to be welcomed with great fanfare in a tense Hanoi, where preparations to repel the coming offensive had been under way for months (25).

    Footnotes:
    (20) This is a very important divergence from OTL. IOTL the assassination of Bazin went through and resulted in the exact bloody crackdown which Hoc had warned about. The assassination proved a disaster to the party, which saw more than one thousand of their members imprisoned, including a large portion of the leadership, and the rest on the run. Hunted and increasingly desperate, the Viet Quoc abandoned their efforts at covert action and turned fully towards violent revolutionary action which culminated in the Yen Bai Mutiny, a failed revolutionary action taken more out of desperation than any real hope of success which resulted in the executions of a large portion of the party leadership and membership. The party was broken by Yen Bai, fracturing into numerous feuding factions after Hoc was executed and clear leadership was lost, and while it continued to play a role in Vietnamese politics throughout the following decades, the party was never able to recover its founding unity. I have chosen to have Duong provide the handguns to Vien, although how exactly he got hold of his arms IOTL is unclear, mostly to get him out of the way. IOTL he played a key role in betraying the Yen Bai plans and was a constant problem for the party until his treachery was discovered and he was shot while trying to flee. By avoiding the Bazin assassination and removing Duong, the Viet Quoc are able to continue their development in peace, strengthening their grip on power in Tonkin (northern Vietnam) significantly by the time matters kick off properly.

    (21) This section is basically all OTL, but occur under somewhat different circumstances. Without the Bazin assassination, crackdown on Viet Quoc and resultant Yen Bai Mutiny, the French are a lot less worried about the situation and view the Nghe An and Ha Tihn protests as an isolated matter, a couple districts brought into disarray by troublesome communist dissidents, rather than the starting ripples of a wave of outrage. The sheer level of violence unleashed by the French colonial authorities is shocking but OTL, to the degree that 1931 has been referred to by some historians as one of the darkest periods in the entire period of French rule in Vietnam. When you consider exactly the depths of horror and outrage French rule of the region have gone to at varying points during that period, that is really saying something.

    (22) The plans I am using as a framework for the Tonkin Rising are those set out for the Yen Bai Mutiny, although ITTL those plans are a great deal more realistic than IOTL and see a lot of expansion to account for the Viet Quoc's greater level of support. One really important thing to note here is the continued presence and leadership of Vietnamese warrant officers in the various garrisons of Tonkin, IOTL these officers were largely removed from their posts when word reached the French colonial authorities from Duong that Viet Quoc were planning to target military garrisons. ITTL, with Duong dead and the French distracted, there are no such preparations undertaken. Having had longer to build their movement in peace, the Viet Quoc also have a significantly larger base of support and people willing to fight alongside them than IOTL. The establishment of the Viet Quoc provisional government also occurred IOTL, although ITTL Nghiep is named minister of military affairs instead of Duong. Nghiep IOTL left the party after quarrelling over how to deal with the crackdown and while he ostensibly coordinated actions with the Viet Quoc leadership during the Yen Bai Mutiny, failures of communication there played a key role in the failure of the initial attempt, ITTL Nghiep never breaks with the Viet Quoc because of the lack of a crackdown. I should probably mention here that Nguyen Ai Quoc who is mentioned as leader of the Communists is the Ho Chi Minh of OTL, he took on the name of Ho Chi Minh in the 40s in remembrance of the Chinese general who helped free him from captivity. Quoc was his most used alias at the time and the one he was mostly known by until at least the late 1930s so that is what I am using here. He had other aliases as well, one of which he has used to participate in the Copenhagen Conference ITTL (much as he did the Versailles Conference of OTL).

    (23) The Yen Bai attack detailed here is largely along the lines of what was actually planned for the OTL mutiny, just with events going in the Viet Quoc's favor, primarily caused by the presence of more sympathetic troops and local warrant officers willing to throw in with the rebels. The other attacks mentioned are all based on the potential sites of attacks were discussed by the Viet Quoc in the lead up to Yen Bai, except for Nghiep's attack on the Yunnan border, that was part of the Yen Bai plan IOTL which floundered due to a failure of coordination between the Yen Bai attack and that at the Yunnan border. From there, it is just a matter of events spinning rapidly out of control. In Nghe-Tinh, the failure to bring in Tonkin police forces as IOTL, because of the Viet Quoc actions, means that the second, much more effective, round of repression from OTL flounders and the revolts are able to pick up their pace one again. IOTL, the spring of 1931 proved vital in suppressing the Nghe-Tinh revolts, so by disrupting that effort events are able to turn in the favor of the rebels. We are also seeing a shift from protests and demonstrations to open attacks on the colonial authorities, a significant shift provoked by the events of the Tonkin Rising further to the north. By the end of this section, the revolts are spreading rapidly southward, with Hue a new hotspot as demonstrations there are met with violence as well.

    (24) I know that I am being quite optimistic about the Viet Quoc's abilities to go toe-to-toe with the French colonial administration, but I also hope that I have given sufficient explanations for how this is possible. IOTL, the French struggled mightily to crush dissent in just two provinces, Nghe An and Ha Tinh, and were forced to move troops from across Indochina to accomplish this effort. ITTL, this concentration of forces still happens, but rather than having to deal with two provinces worth of disorganized angry peasants, they are now facing a well-coordinated and well-armed revolutionary movement with control over a vast swathe of northern Vietnam. Hell, even in aircraft there isn't that meaningful of a difference in what either side has available initially, as a large proportion of the Indochinese air fleet was stationed at Hanoi. While the French have oceans more resources to call upon, it takes time, effort and a ton of money to move the requisite forces to the region and even here they are still relying heavily on both African and local troops to supplement their forces. Both Laos and Cambodia were apparently a lot less dissatisfied with the French colonial administration than the Vietnamese were - mostly because both regions were far less impacted by the French colonial efforts - so they seem like optimal recruiting grounds to the French, even if it does cause trouble in the long run with how the administration is viewed.

    (25) And there we get the aforementioned disaster of 1931 which played into political events in France in the last update. There are some divergences from how the merger played out IOTL which are primarily provoked by the fact that the Youth League ends up engaged with the Jiaxing instead of going through the OTL KMT anti-Communist crackdown. The immense differences in how much power the Chinese governments can exert in the south are also key elements in this matter. The Cochinchina Rising is partly inspired by the OTL 1940 Cochinchina Rising, but again things play out somewhat differently. As with in Tonkin, the shifting of forces to other parts of Indochina leaves a region dangerously under-defended and opens up the gates for major revolts which undermine the French positions. However, we have now come to the end of the good news for Indochina, as the French juggernaut has finally begun to move.

    Summary:
    In the Balkans, the bloody anarchy of the preceding decades give way to reconstruction and recuperation, although dissatisfaction with the status quo grows.
    The Two Rivers Crisis brings the world to the brink of general warfare before events in Persia allow for a de-escalation of the crisis.
    The Middle East sees the rise of ambitious new rulers and powers who are always on the lookout for opportunities to increase their power and authority.
    In Indochina, failures to manage revolutionary activities result in the outbreak of a major anti-colonial revolt which threatens to overthrow the French regime.

    End Note:

    While the middle eastern section is mostly focused on tying up things in the Middle East, the Indochinese update introduces us to a whole new and exciting part of the world which will be taking a center stage for the next while. The Indochinese Revolt is one of those things where I went into it thinking that it would be a region where civil unrest would make a lot of sense, only to discover that there was so very much to work with. The whole challenge of figuring out the intricacies of how the lack of Bazin's assassination plays into events in Nghe-Tinh and the divergences within the Viet Quoc were a ton of fun. When things just start to click together and fit into the larger web alt-history is at its very best.

    I would like to thank @Zincvit for betaing the section on Indochina for me and as always @Ombra for feedback on everything. It provided a good deal of helpful added details which help flesh out how complicated and multifaceted of a region it is.
     
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    Update Thirty-Three (Pt. 1): A Theory of Great Men
  • A Theory of Great Men

    1053px-Leon_Trotsky_and_Leonid_Serebryakov_attend_the_Congress_of_Soviets_of_the_Soviet_Union_May_1925.jpg

    Leon Trotsky and Leonid Serebryakov Attending The Congress of Soviets

    The Rise of Trotsky​

    The Fall of Siberia and formal unification of the Russian Communists under the banner of the Soviet Republic of Russia were to augur a time of peace and prosperity for the youthful Russian state. The horrific devastation of the Great War and the bitter Civil War had left their marks, but a renewed dedication to the revolution and ability of the government to finally turn its attentions fully towards creating a revolutionary state were to dominate the period to follow. At the very heart of the growing prosperity of Red Russia sat Grigori Sokolnikov, Member of the Central Committee, Commissar for Finance, Economic Development and Industrialization and Chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the National Economy.

    Under Sokolnikov's leadership, a syndicalist economy initially structured around managing the transfer of goods between the countryside and urban industry had become a sprawling system of communally- and state-owned corporations in a closely regulated market complemented by small private shops and enterprises, which were permitted as long as they remained of limited size, but were forcibly communalised amongst their workers and local governments if they grew too large, with the original owner maintaining a larger stake than others in the community and often continuing as managers of the enterprise. Industries judged as vital to the state, such as raw resource extraction, military production, utilities, healthcare, communications and public transportation were nationalised, Sokolnikov viewing them as either too important or too inelastic to permit private involvement. However, the vast majority of sectors were opened up to communal enterprise - with villages, neighborhoods, towns and workers' collectives being permitted to enter into a closely regulated market economy, in effect creating a decentralised mixed-economy. Limited foreign investments were permitted - although never exceeding 33% ownership, as was investment by the Commissariat of Economic Development, but profits collected by the Commissariat through such investments were split with half going to the state budget and the other half being used to finance further investments. Sokolnikov put a strong emphasis on the improvement of agriculture, to the point that he had his close political ally Valerian Oboloensky-Osinsky appointed as Commissar for Agriculture and implemented an incentive system through that Commissariat whereby agricultural production was incentivised with the provision of consumer goods (1).

    Although the economic policies of Sokolnikov proved largely successful, and saw the development of a rapidly growing economy, these policies also met with considerable critique in government circles. When Trotsky entered the Central Committee he soon found himself at loggerheads with Sokolnikov, dismissing the economic policies as "Capitalism Painted Red", and drumming up an opposition to the policies both in the Central Committee and amongst the lower rungs of the Communist Party, claiming that a directed economy, which would ensure equal prosperity for all, would better fit the goals of the Soviet Republic. However, it was here that Sokolnikov's efforts to incorporate Syndicalist and Anarchist approaches to the economy proved beneficial. Having worked in close coordination with Makhno as Russian farms were bound together into collectives, which functioned as communal economic entities in Sokolnikov's economy, and having thereby been able to ease the on-going collectivization process, the pair had developed a good working relationship and a degree of mutual respect which made Trotsky's efforts to insert himself into these matters more challenging. However, the inclusion of Lev Kamenev and Lazar Kaganovich, the latter of whom had demonstrated an impressive capacity for industrial development, to the Central Committee following the Fall of Siberia was to present a major challenge to Sokolnikov's power and authority over the economy.

    Under Trotsky's constant and relentless attacks, Sokolnikov gradually found himself pressed into a position of having to choose what parts of his authority he was willing to surrender to Kaganovich, Trotsky having argued successfully that the industrial development of the Yekaterinburg region had outstripped that of Moscow under Kaganovich's leadership. While Sokolnikov was able to coordinate with Osinsky and Makhno to ward off attacks on control of Commissariat of Agriculture, even succeeding in extending their authority to include the massive state-run and owned forcibly collectivized farms in the Yekaterinburg region, he was unable to maintain his control over the Commissariat of Industry, which managed the state-controlled sections of the economy, and was pressed to surrender three out of eight seats on the Supreme Soviet of the National Economy to Kaganovich, Trotsky and another Trotsky-ally, Gleb Krzhizhanovsky in early 1931. It was only with a great deal of effort, and the backing of Bukharin, that Sokolnikov was able to secure the transfer of regulatory oversight of both the privatized and public economy from the Commissariat of Industry to the Commissariat of Finance, allowing him to maintain control of that aspect of the economy. While control of the economy remained beyond Trotsky's grip, he had succeeded in significantly weakening Sokolnikov, his most vocal opponent on the Central Committee, and had weakened the once hegemonic power he had exerted over the economy in the process (2).

    While Trotsky's conflict with Sokolnikov was to prove significant, it would be his bitter and extended conflict with the ideological leader of the Muscovite Revolution, Nikolai Bukharin, which defined the period following the Fall of Siberia. While Yakov Sverdlov had been the administrative leader of the Muscovite, and later Soviet, State he had distanced himself from the work of formulating the ideological underpinnings on which the state was built and instead allowed the more ideologically-inclined Bukharin to take the lead on these matters. To accomplish this Bukharin was named Editor-in-Chief of Pravda, the Communist Party's newspaper, and Izvetia, the official state newspaper, was made the Commissar of Communications as well as the Chairman of the Congress of Soviets and Chairman for the State Planning Committee - which directed the ideological underpinning of the state and the determined the authority and responsibilities of every department, commissariat, committee and council in the sprawling Soviet state. This placed Bukharin in control of the voice of the government and party, through his control of the newspapers, in command of the legislature and in control of what remit each state institutions was provided with. With this control, Bukharin and his supporters, most prominently Yevgeni Preobrazhensky, Vladimir Smirnov, Timofei Sparonov and Georgy Pyatkov, would formulate the Muscovite line of Communist thought which emerged as the dominant Communist ideology in the years preceding the Fall of Siberia. Muscovite Communism as developed under Bukharin placed an emphasis on collective leadership, the inclusion of divergent strains of leftist thought in ideological development and government, sought to justify the social-market economic policies of Sokolnikov, placed an emphasis on cultural promotion which under the guidance of Anatoly Lunacharsky saw Proletkult emerge as a major cultural movement on a global scale, laid a focus on the development of a truly Communist state as a precondition to the international revolution and emphasized support for the peaceful development of Communism on an international level alongside engagement with the international community on an equal footing (3).

    Trotsky, with his militaristic command Communism, perpetual revolution theory and goal of spreading revolution on a global scale in any way possible, clashed openly with the strain of thought Bukharin had formulated. While initially unwilling to make too great waves, Trotsky soon began to push elements of his own beliefs, seeking to not only convince elements of the government of the feasibility and necessity of spurring on revolutionary zeal around the world but also pressing for a harder line against the imperialist powers and for unity of purpose in a government riven by factionalism. In spite of his persuasiveness, Trotsky was initially unable to make much headway in the face of Bukharin's control of the ideological organs of the state, frequently seeing his articles cut down in the editing process and placed in inopportune parts of the newspapers and magazines of the Muscovite press, but this was to change with the Fall of Siberia.

    By taking actions circumventing the authority of the Central Committee and forcing them to acquiesce with his goals afterwards, he was able to secure a chance at glory, to prove that his ideas were right and those of Bukharin were wrong, and he could not have experienced greater success from such efforts. The bloody conquest of Siberia was the single greatest accomplishment of the Soviet Republic since the defeat of the Petrograd Whites and catapulted Trotsky to immense popularity both amongst the general populace and within the party and government structures themselves. His assertive personality and successful leadership of the Yekaterinburg Reds, as well as his domineering ideological beliefs and successful demonstration of a perpetually spreading constant state of revolution proved a winning combination, drawing many into support of the renegade Central Committee member.

    Beginning in 1929, Trotsky would increasingly muscle his way into Bukharin's sphere of influence. In June he supported the launch of Trud, Labour, as a national newspaper, it having previously been the party newspaper of the Yekaterinburg Reds, of which he served as Editor-in-Chief and presented his views on ideological matters through this medium. Trud proved an immediate hit, soon reaching a circulation comparable to Pravda and exceeding that of Izvetia. He next used his seat in the Congress of Soviets to agitate in favor of his pet projects, whipping up the delegates in numerous displays of his incredible talent for speechifying and rallying people to his cause, turning what had previously been a relatively sedate and weak institution into the center of Russian politics in a campaign to raise the political influence of the chamber, campaigning to secure oversight responsibilities for the various committees of the Congress in order to, as Trotsky put it, "Provide a backstop on the Tyranny of the Few", although this campaign would meet with considerable opposition and while it eventually saw the Congress' authority expanded to allow the congress to sign off on the governmental budgets, he was unable to accomplish the more structural shifts he had been hoping for. While he tried to secure a seat on the State Planning Committee, he would find himself firmly rebuffed, as the collective Central Committee moved in opposition to his attempts at securing power over this vitally important state organ(4).

    The person most put out by Trotsky's glory hogging in the aftermath of the Fall of Siberia was Mikhail Tukhachevsky. As a Central Committee Member, Commander-in-Chief of the Soviet Militaries, Lead Army Reformer and director of the actual military campaign in Siberia, Tukhachevsky had fully expected to reap a considerable boost to his already significant popularity with the successful conquest of Siberia. However, while he was obliquely praised for his leadership, in the eyes of the populace the genius behind the campaign was not Tukhachevsky but rather Trotsky, who himself enjoyed a decent military reputation. Even within the military, Tukhachevsky found himself outshone by his subordinates. It was not the sweeping grand strategy which made its mark on the populace and dominated media and propaganda, but rather the daring North Siberian March of Blyukher, the heroic charge of Zhukov and his armored columns at Kansk and the grueling pursuit led by Rokossovsky. It was the bravery of the Communist cavalry under August Kork and the steadfast implacable courage of the infantry soldier in the face of the enigmatic genius of Kutepov.

    As other benefitted from his hard work, Tukhachevsky could do little but bitterly complain and lament his mistaken trust in Trotsky, who he had viewed as a useful counterpart with whom he could work in concert. However, Tukhachevsky took his dissatisfaction and channeled it into ensuring that the military learned all that it could on the basis of the Siberian Campaign. There had been numerous mistakes and miscalculations, as well as a failure to integrate the different military doctrines which had emerged in the years following the end of the Civil War. These failures were to reflect poorly upon Tukhachevsky, and would result in the strengthening of other voices in the military to serve as a counterpoint to the once all-powerful military leader. While he had worked with Mikhail Frunze in the past, it had always been from a position of superiority, but following the end of the campaign, there would follow a major reshuffling of responsibilities within the military which was to severely constrain Tukhachevsky's power and influence.

    The Military Reforms of 1930 saw the military placed under the authority of the Supreme Military Soviet, under which the Commissariats of the Army, Marine, Air, Strategy and Security & Intelligence were to be placed. Tukhachevsky saw his position raised to Chairman of the Supreme Military Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Soviet Armed Forces, but in effect lost direct control over the armed forces, finding himself forced to rely upon the various Commissars who took up effective leadership of their individual branches and who had their own factional allegiances. Vasily Blyukher was named as Commissar of the Red Army for his accomplishments in the Siberian Campaign, in effect securing managerial control over the entirety of the Soviet Red Army, while Aleksandr Vladimirovich Razvozov was named as Commissar of the Red Marine, having been amongst the most prominent naval commanders in Muscovite service since the start of the Russian Civil War and having held command of the Baltic Fleet for nearly a decade, and Andrei Vasilievich Sergeev, an early organizer of Muscovite air forces during the Civil War, was named as Commissar of the Red Air Fleet. As head of the Commissariat of Military Security and Intelligence Sergey Ivanovich Gusev was appointed, having long been involved in both intelligence work around the world as a diplomat, most significantly in the United States, however while his qualifications were unquestionable more than a few would whisper about the fact that Gusev's daughter happened to serve as Sverdlov's long-time personal secretary and through that connection had developed a close relationship with the august head of state. However, while Tukhachevsky might have been able to accept the development of these Commissariats, it would be the Commissariat of Strategy which truly stuck in his craw. Under the new reorganization, Tukhachevsky's pet-project of military reform was passed over to this new Commissariat which was charged with not only developing military strategy and doctrine, as well as planning and managing the implementation of military reforms, it was also put in charge of the development of military technologies, procurement and military education, with Tukhachevsky's greatest rival, Mikhail Frunze, placed as Commissar with the charge of unifying Soviet military doctrine (5).

    While Trotsky had proven himself willing to interfere in the power and authority exercised by most of the Central Committee's members, there was one person who Trotsky would maintain a constant fearful respect of - Yakov Sverdlov. Sverdlov was without a doubt the most powerful man in Russia, even if he rarely exercised that power and authority in public, preferring to maintain an air of impartiality which made him an ideal arbitrator in the often fierce factional conflicts of the Central Committee. However, appearances rarely matched reality in the case of Sverdlov, whose carefully selected positions provided him a position from which he could remove any threat to the Soviet Republic. A man of scholarly mien and few words in public, he was a superb organizer with an often astonishing knowledge of the work conducted by even the smallest of provincial committees and departments. He was a dedicated proponent of systemic and regularized solutions to party and state problems, creating a comprehensive organizational network atop which Bukharin painted his ideology. He served as confidante to many prominent political figures, most assuming that he already knew most of their secrets, and was willing to provide advice on numerous different topics, thereby exerting an often astonishing level of influence over the state.

    As General Secretary of the Communist Party and Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, Sverdlov held a level of power and authority over the party proper that not even Bukharin could match, even if Sverdlov preferred to pass off such tasks to Bukharin and simply inserted himself into the party processes when he felt a need to, maintaining a seat on the State Planning Committee and the State Finance Committee most significantly. As Chairman of the Central Executive Committee of the Soviet Republic, he sat at the head of the executive branch of government while as Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars he held authority over and the ability to interfere in any Commissariat should he wish to, although once again this was a relatively rare occurrence. It was this unwillingness to interfere to any significant degree in the plans of other members of the Central Committee which allowed him to maintain this incredible level of power and authority, and led to him being viewed with great trust even by the rivalling Trotskyite, Militarist and Anarchist factions of the Central Committee. However, where Sverdlov truly exercised his power and control was as Commissar of Internal Affairs a position which granted him control over the vast security apparatus which maintained the safety of the state internally and held a toehold in every other part of the state, and as General Secretary of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, a position which allowed him total oversight over foreign affairs while leaving the actual diplomatic work to others.

    While the Cheka had held sway as the chosen secret police force under Dzerzhinsky, with the appointment of Moisei Uritsky to head the organization, Sverdlov used the opportunity to secure effective control of the organization while splitting it into two directorates. The first, The State Security Directorate, abbreviated as the GBU, was headed by the careful and capable Uritsky and was charged with matters of general state security, including control of the Militsiya police forces, which had emerged to replace the Tsarist police force, controlled emergency services, managed the general prison population and provided for border security and internal security - providing guards to various state institutions, bodyguards to Commissars and other important government officials and protection for various state secrets. The more secretive elements of the work previously done by the Cheka were to be found in the second of these directorates, The State Political Directorate, abbreviated as the GPU, which served as a secret police force and counter-intelligence organization in charge secret political and state security matters, primarily consisting of surveillance, detention, interrogation and execution work while operating a network of secret prisons. Beyond that the GPU was also placed in charge of safeguarding state secrecy and investigative work requiring discretion. As Director of the GPU, Sverdlov turned to his old, trusted ally Filipp Goloshchyokin, who had proven himself utterly loyal to Sverdlov and the revolutionary cause, without any moral compunctions in pursuing the bloody secretive work done by the Directorate, and intelligent enough to maintain order amongst some of the psychopaths who gravitated towards work in the directorate. Beyond these two directorates, Sverdlov was able to ensure influence over the Commissariat of Military Security and Intelligence as well as the Foreign Intelligence Directorate of the Commissariat of Foreign Affairs by having them collectively answer to Sverdlov in his post as Chairman of the Committee on State Intelligence in addition to their ordinary chains of command (6).

    The ascension of Anatoly Lunacharsky to the Central Committee, while strengthening the Governing Clique, also brought what was known as the Vpered Group to the center of Soviet politics. Named for the Vpered magazine which they had once published together, the group included not only Lunacharsky but also Alexander Bodganov, Mikhail Pokrovsky, Aleksandr Voronsky and Maxim Gorky. As men exceedingly interested in culture and education, the Vpered Group had secured nearly complete control over the educational and cultural state organs in Soviet Russia, using the opportunity to catapult Proletkult to ever greater heights, even as the movement was splintering along Futurist and Traditionalist lines.

    The Futurists, who had been around since the pre-revolutionary days, believed in the total fragmenting of all that came before, with a heavy emphasis on the modernist and futuristic, on the speed and power of revolution, while the Traditionalists held that the emphasis should be upon the realistic depiction of life in a revolutionary state. They rejected the complex and distorted reality portrayed by the Futurists, instead aiming towards the production of proletarian art which showed realistic representations of the joys of revolutionary Russia through the everyday life of the people, dismissively portraying the Futurists as lacking in class-consciousness, party loyalty and truthfulness. This divide was to equally divide the Vpered Group, with Maxim Gorky as a vocal proponent of the Traditionalists and Voronsky as an ardent defender of the Futurists, describing the Traditionalist approach as artificial, lacking the deeper understanding of humanity which was made possible in Futurist works. While ordinarily, these two movements might have ended up seeking to destroy the other, the other members of the Vpered Group were able to maintain a balance between the two wings of Proletkult, allowing the movements to develop in dialogue and opposition to each other, enriching both movements in the process and further strengthening the popularity of Proletkult as a cultural movement.

    The cultural freedoms enjoyed by Russian writers and artists of all sorts, which had drawn thinkers, writers and artists from across the globe, came under scrutiny following the Siberian Campaign and Trotsky's resultant rise in power and authority. While largely supportive of the relatively free press and art, Trotsky also came to discover that there was a path forward for him to establish a foothold in cultural affairs which led him to begin lobbying the Central Committee in 1931 on the issue of censorship, pointing out the way in which the reorganisation of the Cheka had failed to pass on censorship duties to a proper superseding authority, having allowed for the spread of capitalist and imperialist works, primarily from Germany and France, without any control or oversight on the part of the government. This was highlighted by the showing of an anti-communist documentary film by Eduard Stadtler, a fervently anti-Communist German journalist and Reichstag member for the DNVP, in cinemas in both Moscow and Petrograd, which Trotsky presented at a meeting of the Central Committee - the movie drawing shouts of outrage at the wild claims asserted in the documentary. Having enflamed the passions of his fellow committee members, Trotsky moved to establish a Directorate for the Protection of State Secrets with charge of censorship in writing, press and art, with the new Director to be Trotsky's closest political ally and brother-in-law, Lev Kamenev. While there was some grumbling on the part of Lunacharsky, the Vpered's relationship with Kamenev was decent and they were soon able to iron out most of their immediate differences (7).

    That being stated, where Lunacharsky was to make his great impact was in the sphere of education and scientific research. As Commissar of Education, Lunacharsky was responsible for the establishment of a vast network of public schooling which not only served to prepare the next generation for the future revolutionary struggle, but also provided widespread access to night-schooling for the general public which had the effect of increasing schooling drastically from the doldrums of the Great War period, when schooling had fallen to under 20% of children and horrific literacy rates, to crossing 80% in 1932 for the entire population - women only lagging behind by 4.3 percent. In 1924 a new school statute and curricula was adopted structured around a four-year school, a seven-year school which granted access to further technical schooling and nine-year schools which led directly to university-level education. Independent subjects were initially abolished in favor of more complex themes - in which multidisciplinary course studies were emphasized, but the immediate failure of this radical new approach saw swift backlash resulting in the re-adoption of individual subjects and the implementation of standardized school classes with co-education of boys and girls. Schooling was split into a Primary level, covering the four, seven and nine year elementary schools, while vocational and other schooling following the seven-year level were judged as being at the Secondary level with Tertiary or Higher education including degree-level facilities such as universities, institutes and military academies.

    Determined to improve the resources available to the revolutionary state, officials within the Commissariat for Education would prove amongst the most hard working and fanatical in their duties. Research and scientific development was led at the highest level by the Academy of Sciences of the Soviet Republic, an institution which had begun its life as the Imperial Saint Petersburg Academy of Sciences. The conflict between the Academy and the Commissariat of Education was to prove one of the most significant challenges faced by Lunacharsky, who struggled mightily to secure control of the institution from its president Alexander Karpinsky. For years, the two were stuck in a constant struggle with more than a dozen proposed Communist Party appointees being rejected by the Academy, until finally in 1926 the Academy was formally subordinated to the Commissariat of Education and Karpinsky was removed from his post in 1928. After a great deal of back and forth with the members of the Academy, Lunacharsky was able to secure the appointment of Mikhail Pokrovsky as Chairman of a newly established Committee for the Academy of Sciences which replaced the post of President of the Academy. However, perhaps Lunacharsky's most influential contribution to the course of Soviet life would come in 1929 when he proposed the adoption of the Latin Alphabet in place of Cyrillic. After a good deal of back and forth discussion on the matter in both the Central Committee and Congress the measure was initially rejected, only to be taken up for consideration once again in 1931. After nearly a year of debate, the matter finally turned in Lunacharsky's favor with Sverdlov and Bukharin's backing, resulting in the official transitioning from the Cyrillic to a Latin alphabet by the Soviet Republic over the course of the remainder of the 1930s (8).

    While Trotsky had his own supporters in the form of Kamenev and Kaganovich on the Central Committee, they were insufficient if he were to try to exercise the level of power that Trotsky hoped to. With Tukhachevsky firmly alienated and the Governing Clique having been his primary target in his extension of power, Trotsky could only turn towards the Anarchist Clique for further support. It is important at this point to clarify the nature of the Anarchist Clique in greater detail, for while its four primary members often acted in concert this was less due to them sharing a common cause and more to do with their united skepticism and distrust of the Governing Clique.

    Lev Chernyi was an ideologically-motivated Individualist Anarchist, an ideology with exceedingly limited following in Russia, who had emerged as a uniting force amongst the Russian Anarchists and used his alliance with the other members of the Clique to take up a significantly greater political position than he would have ever had a chance to under other circumstances. He would also prove the figure most open to cooperation with Trotsky, having been amongst the first members of the Central Committee to deal with the Yekaterinburg leadership due to his position as Commissar for the Nationalities, dealing with the large and brutally oppressed tartar nations which had been subjugated by Kaganovich during the famine years. He soon found an intellectually stimulating conversation partner in Trotsky, even when they disagreed, and they were able to further each others political ambitions in the years that followed. This proved particularly significant when Chernyi came under assault by Bukharin in 1931 for what the latter perceived as the former's failure to incorporate the nationalities into the Soviet Republic properly, instead allowing them significant leeway on the basis of Chernyi's own beliefs, creating autonomous self-governing sub-republics wherein local traditions and power structures were allowed to remain in place, even when breaking with general Soviet policy. Trotsky's ardent defence of Chernyi was able to stave off a censure, and allowed for a continuation of the status quo, although from that day on Chernyi fell ever more directly into the Trotskyite Clique.

    Maria Spiridonova was a different matter entirely. As a former Left-SR, Spiridnova was as, if not more, dedicated to the cause of revolution as anyone, having risen to fame even in the pre-war years as a revolutionary heroine. Ever worried about the excesses of the revolutionary government, Spiridonova had secured appointment as Commissar of Peasant Affairs, in effect charging her with managing the transition from semi-feudal oppression to revolutionary communes in the rural countryside, a task which would consume immense amounts of time and resources and led her to being in constant conflict with both the Agricultural Commissariat and the Cheka, as their repressive methodologies wreaked havoc on her attempts at improving support for the revolutionary cause across Russia's millions of farmsteads, villages and other rural outposts. With the incorporation of Yekaterinburg and Siberia into the Soviet Republic, Spiridonova got a front row seat to the incredibly horrific persecutions of the peasantry which had been undertaken in both regions, in the process developing a seething hatred for Trotsky, who she viewed as little better than a bloody-handed tyrant out to play Bonaparte to their revolution, a view which soon extended to Chernyi when it became clear that he had left the peasantry of the minority nationalities to rot under their ancient oppressors. As a result, while she remained wary of the Governing Clique, she came to view Trotsky and his followers as fundamentally unsuited to leadership, campaigning openly at Committee meetings for their expulsion.

    The second woman on the Central Committee, Alexandra Kollontai, would prove herself the member of the clique least dedicated to their mission of checking the power of the Governing Clique. As Commissar for Welfare and Commissar of Women's Affairs, Kollontai had proven herself amongst the most talented of the new governing class. Exceedingly intelligent, fluent in numerous languages and conversant in just about any topic of intellectual weight, Kollontai had been a central figure of the RSDLP nearly from its inception, but had been a vocal opponent of the Muscovite government before the formation of the Communist Party, being particularly critical of their economic policies which she feared would disillusion the working classes as they created a new class of bourgeoise. While her husband Pavel Dybenko had grown into a prominent military leader during the years of civil war, and was viewed as a firm supporter of the Governing Clique, Kollontai remained skeptical. As leader of welfare efforts, she would coordinate closely with the Finance Commissariat and Education Commissariat, developing friendly relations with both Lunacharsky and Sokolnikov, even as she continued to disapprove of the latter's economic policies. Once she joined the Central Committee she proved a moderate, wavering between Anarchist and Governing cliques based on her convictions on any particular issue.

    Finally there was the enigmatic Nestor Makhno. Despite being the undisputedly most popular figure amongst the Anarchist clique, he was also by far the least interested in the political intrigues of the Central Committee, largely holding himself as neutral on most matters and sporadically attended meetings, only really acting when it seemed as though either Sverdlov or Trotsky were becoming too influential in any one political arena. Instead, Makhno dedicated his full attentions to the rapid development of local institutions across Russia. From the formation of self-defense forces to serve as protectors against bandits and criminals as well as a ready source of manpower in case of war, to the development of equitable village communes freed from the strictures of the pre-revolutionary years and the development of village utilities and services - from schools, policing and micro-loan schemes by state-run banks to electrification, clean water and the development of employment opportunities - Makhno's constant drive and efforts for the betterment of local communities saw him become the most well loved of all the Soviet leaders, and as a result developed a capacity nearly equal to that of Sverdlov to overturn the applecart should the need arise (9).

    Footnotes:
    (1) The Soviet Union of TTL does not end up following the OTL planned-economy and command economy approaches which they fell into, instead we see a bit of an unholy mix of the OTL New Economic Policies coupled with anarcho-syndicalist elements of a decentralised communal economy and a command economy in select sectors of industry. While there are various troubles which consistently emerge, Sokolnikov IOTL proved himself incredibly adept at finessing the economy and predicting major issues beforehand. ITTL he has the power and authority to resolve those issues before they get out of hand, whereas IOTL his hands were often tied by figures higher up in the party hierarchy. It is worth noting here that despite significant efforts at improving agricultural production, it remains an ever-present challenge to the Soviet government, particularly when it comes to bringing proper food stock into the rapidly growing and industrializing cities. While this update won't deal with the issue, we will be addressing it at a later point.

    Just adding a note here about who the various Central Committee members are at this point in time: Yakov Sverdlov, Anatoly Lunacharsky, Nikolai Bukharin and Grigori Sokolnikov; Lev Chernyi, Nestor Makhno, Maria Spiridonova and Alexandra Kollontai; Mikhail Tukhachevsky; Leon Trotsky, Lev Kamenev and Lazar Kaganovich.

    Just to clarify how the Soviet system is set up, you have the Central Committee at the top, with the Chairman Sverdlov serving as its executive head. Each Commissariat has a Commissar heading it and a variety of bureaus, directorates and ministries below themselves. Then there are the State Committees which often correspond to a single Commissariat, but where there are also larger Committees which include multiple Commissariats below them. The various authorities and rights of any individual committee or commissariat vary from organ to organ, but in most cases when you have a one-to-one Committee and Commissariat, the Commissars will also serve as Chairmen of the committee. It is a complicated and byzantine system, but I hope this short explanation helps clarify any confusion.

    (2) The entry of Trotsky into governmental affairs is predictably confrontational. Trotsky has gotten used to being the man in charge, and now suddenly finds himself constrained by collective decision-making. He is quick to act, and immediately begins trying to split the Central Committee, so as to secure greater authority for himself, and the obvious first target is Sokolnikov whose economic policies are not quite what many believe a socialist economy should look like. Following Siberia, the increase in Trotsky's personal prestige, hogging the glory of the achievement for himself, to the great annoyance of Tukhachevsky in particular as we will see, allows him to begin putting more pressure on members of the Central Committee, which is what leads to Sokolnikov losing control of a significant part of the economy. His success in retaining oversight is extremely important, as it ensures that he will continue to have a say in the economic decision making of the Commissariat of Industry even without controlling it, and thereby maintaining influence over the economy as a whole, but there is no way around how significant a loss this is for Sokolnikov.

    (3) Unsurprisingly, the ideological framework created by Bukharin matches the attitude taken by the Muscovite Reds. Bukharin plays an extraordinarily important role through the State Planning Committee - which is a very different institution compared to the OTL Gosplan which it shares a name with. This is an organizing committee which establishes the rights and responsibilities of various institutions, not an economic planning committee as it was IOTL. Also worth noting here that the Commissariat of Communications has control over not only the postal system and telegraphs and regulations of all media - although responsibilities on some of this is shared with the Commissariat of Culture under Lunacharsky.

    (4) Trotsky really wants to hold the positions held by Bukharin and Sverdlov - which would be similar to the level of power and authority exercised by Lenin and Stalin IOTL - but views the positions held by Bukharin as the most important. Even IOTL Bukharin and Trotsky were regularly at loggerheads with each other, and IOTL Bukharin was the one to formulate the ideological response to Trotsky's Left Opposition. It is worth noting here that Trotskyite ideology is pretty far from that of OTL because he retains his belief in War Communism, which he ended up abandoning IOTL. While he seeks to strengthen the Congress of Soviets, this is not so much to do with democratic accountability as because it is a vehicle for power which he is more adept at directing than Bukharin, who prefers his positions as Editor-in-Chief and Chairman of the State Planning Committee to parliamentary processes. It should also be noted here that the Trud newspaper mentioned here is not the same as that of OTL, but rather the government paper which Trotsky used as leader of the Yekaterinburg Reds - here he is taking that paper nation-wide, in the process challenging the central position held by Pravda and Izvetia.

    (5) Tukhachevsky is not a happy sailor. Honestly, the entire Siberian Campaign ends up being a colossal disaster politically for Tukhachevsky, who ends up being held responsible for the various failures early in the campaign and none of the glory which comes later. I hope that the military reforms and restructuring makes sense to people and helps give a clearer understanding of the situation. I am well aware of the sort of weird position that the Strategy Commissariat ends up holding, but I think it is important to bear in mind that Tukhachevsky alienated much of the governing clique when he lobbied for Trotsky's entry, and they end up viewing the reorganisation as a great way of both increasing their own power in the military, which Tukhachevsky has been jealously guarding up to this point, while driving a wedge between him and Trotsky. It is worth noting that the Military Security and Intelligence Commissariat ends up in charge of a lot of the more secretive technological development and authority over the Commissariat is split between the Supreme Military Soviet and the Commissariat of Internal Affairs which Sverdlov personally heads (we will get into all of that in the next section), so military policing, dispatched political commissars, security forces and intelligence gathering are only partially under the control of the military, Sverdlov seeking to insert himself into that sphere of government to the detriment of Tukhachevsky. Specifically it is the GRU - The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Military - which answers to the Commissariat for Military Intelligence and Security which ends up partially under Sverdlov's thumb. Also worth reiterating here that Frunze is an old Trotskyite ITTL, so his appointment is widely viewed as an extension of Trotsky's authority into the military.

    (6) Sverdlov holds an immensely important position in the Soviet state, and has the capacity, should he wish it, to remove anyone from any position given his control over the security and intelligence forces. Sverdlov was one of the most intellectually inclined of the early Bolsheviks - to the point that when Stalin was asking for shipments of milk while they were in exile together in arctic Siberia, Sverdlov was lamenting the lack of good books. He was a man who made friends easily and from my read disliked getting involved in the political infighting of the party, while he was General Secretary of the RSDLP (prior to it becoming the Communist Party) he largely remained impartial in the political infighting, which is in sharp contrast to Stalin who used the position for intense political combat. However, while Sverdlov might have been reluctant to get bogged down in the infighting, that does not mean he was or ITTL is a pushover. I think this is a good place to mention that when I have ordinarily used the Central Committee ITTL, I have been referring to an amalgamation of the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the Central Executive Committee, the membership of the two bodies is identical and meetings of the CC shift regularly between the two, the CEC serving as the head of the executive branch and the CCCP serving as the leading organ of the Communist Party. The Council of People's Commissars is a much larger body including all of the commissars, and functions as the ministerial cabinet of the Soviet Republic.

    I also hope that the division between the GBU and GPU makes sense, basically the GBU maintains all the aspects of the security apparatus which people run into on a general basis, while the GPU is in charge of all the secretive affairs of the state. This division has the effect of removing the horror of the Cheka regime from public view, allowing the Commissariat of Internal Affairs to present a welcome face to the public in the GBU, while maintaining the power of a totalitarian state in the shadows through the GPU. I hope that this helps make clear exactly how different Sverdlov's approach to rulership is from that of Stalin or any of the other Soviet leaders of state from OTL. Sverdlov has a quiet scholarly air to him and rarely raises his voice or gets into arguments with others, but if you cross the lines he has set you could disappear one night as though you never existed in the first place. This is to mention nothing on the immense treasury of blackmail material that he collects through the various intelligence directorates. A final note - while the Commissariat of Military Security and Intelligence is ostensibly of a higher position than the other intelligence directorates, it's intelligence section the GRU is placed on an equal footing within the Committee on State Intelligence and is firmly under the control and authority of Sverdlov.

    (7) As some might have noticed the Traditionalist branch of Proletkult described are the early developments of OTL's Socialist Realism movement which Stalin proved a great supporter of and which eventually subsumed all other artistic movements in Russia. Without the interference of Lenin and Stalin, both of whom constantly meddled in cultural affairs, often to the detriment of all, Lunacharsky is able to maintain his benign non-interference approach, simply allowing both the Futurists and Traditionalists to keep developing in competition to each other, forcing both movements to constantly seek to better themselves in contrast to their rivals. Thus, instead of the OTL cultural stagnation which resulted from over-censorship and blind support of Socialist Realism, we instead get a dynamic cultural scene which draws great interest both at home and abroad. While the Cheka maintained some censorship duties, their reorganization led to censorship falling through the cracks until Trotsky noticed an opportunity to interfere. I should also mention that Kamenev proves a far lighter hand than the OTL censorship, a precedent of supporting relatively free artistic expression having already developed in the more than a decade-long life of Muscovite Communism which serves as the foundations on which the Soviet Republic has been built.

    (8) The school structures outlined here are largely based on OTL, as they were implemented by Lunacharsky during his time as Commissar of Education. The conflict with the Academy of Sciences plays out differently, culminating in the adoption of a committee-structure in order to secure the appointment of Pokrovsky where IOTL Karpinsky retained his post. One really important thing to note is that education continues to follow the relatively laisse faire approach of Lunacharsky, without the political interference of OTL to a large degree. The adoption of the Latin Alphabet is based on the fact that Lunacharsky proposed such a measure IOTL. ITTL he is a lot more powerful and influential, and the committee is a lot more open to adopting new ideas than the stolid Stalinist regime which was coming to power at this time IOTL, which results in the measure eventually being adopted. It is worth noting that Lunacharsky placed a particular emphasis on including teaching in both Cyrillic and Latin alphabets in the various schools, so most people are literate in both alphabets. The increases in literacy are pretty close to OTL as well - the first decade under the Soviet Union honestly saw some pretty miraculous accomplishments despite the bitter partisanship and political infighting, to mention nothing of the constant terror and bloodletting, when compared to the decades which followed.

    (9) And here we see the gradual disintegration of the Anarchist Clique as the primary opposition to the Governing Clique, with the Trotskyites stepping into their place. It is worth reiterating once again how diverse the Anarchist Clique actually is - Chernyi was an individualist anarchist ideologue, Spiridonova was a near-on worshipped SR hero and one-time terrorist, Kollontai was actually a part of the RSDLP before it fragmented totally during the chaotic year which followed the deaths of Stalin and Lenin while Makhno was an anarchist turned peasant-leader. And that is just the top layer of those associated with the clique. In effect, the Anarchist Clique became a catch-all for anyone opposed to the Governing Clique's approaches, spanning numerous different leftist affiliations, with their own disagreements and independent points of view. With Chernyi, Trotsky has four of the twelve seats on Central Committee, with the potential to bring over more under the right circumstance - particularly if he presents himself as a counterpoint to the Governing Clique. We are effectively seeing the Anarchist Clique falling to the wayside as the main opposition to the Governing Clique, with the Trotskyites stepping into their place.

    530px-%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%B2_%D0%94%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87_%D0%A2%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9.jpg

    Leon Trotsky

    The Russian Bonaparte​

    While Trotsky made plenty of waves within the legitimate confines of the Soviet state, it would be his actions beyond that state which truly defined his swift rise to power and authority, much as happened with the Siberian Campaign. His successful usage of covert activities, martialing resources squirrelled away in the lands of Yekaterinburg, convinced Trotsky that this was the best way forward for him if he truly wanted to secure a dominant position within the Soviet Republic to bring about the World Revolution. While Trotsky had focused his attentions on extending his power within the state, as international Communism began to make major strides in Persia, China, India, Japan, Latin America and Europe, Trotsky sponsored the training and education of not only revolutionary leaders but also their militant supporters. While relations to the Communist state of Italy were troubled, with Trotsky in particular viewing the renegade regime with considerable aversion for their support of the abominable Revolutionary Catholic Church, and saw the Khivan regime as an intransigent break-away state dominated by a leadership consumed more by greed than revolutionary zeal, Trotsky maintained a strong relationship to the Iranian government.

    While the Jiaxing Communists would receive some covert aid from the Soviet Republic, it would be with the Two Rivers Crisis that Trotsky truly became convinced that the time for action had come. While the Tudeh leadership in Iran had already begun to act against Pessian Persia, Trotsky was swift to press the Central Committee to back the effort while also dispatching Yekaterinburg partisans to aid in the Iranian advance without the knowledge of the rest of the Russian leadership. While Persia fell swiftly to the advancing Iranians, word soon reached the Central Committee of a considerable number of Russian advisors in the Iranian forces - advisors who had not been dispatched by the Supreme Military Soviet. When it emerged that Trotsky was behind this initiative it caused considerable anger and distrust amongst the leadership towards Trotsky, with Kollontai openly accused Trotsky of Bonapartist ambitions. Nevertheless, Kollontai and the lesser members of the Governing Clique could do little but grumble when Trotsky's gamble once again proved successful as Persia crumbled under the twin pressures of internal collapse and external pressure.

    While Trotsky angrily denounced the subsequent signing of a naval treaty prohibiting Russian naval bases on the Persian Gulf coast, he was immensely pleased to see his gamble pay off once more, his belief that the future of the revolution was to be found in Asia having proven true once more. It was not solely sore feelings at Trotsky acting independently of the Central Committee which caused aggravation, but also the way in which his aggressive support for the revolutionary effort internationally greatly inconvenienced the committee members who had spent years working to improve the international standing and trust of the Soviet Republic. As part of the negotiations which ended conflict with the European Powers, the Muscovite state had agreed to ending sponsorship of revolutionary movements internationally, and in the years since those domains had enjoyed a beneficial relationship with particularly the German Empire.

    However, with the Conquest of Siberia wariness amongst the Germans had been increased considerably, and with the fall of Pessian Persia worries about the rise of Communism took firm hold in Europe - even if trade and dialogue with the Germans continued. Trotsky's successes in Persia served to spur him on, and he soon began campaigning openly on the Central Committee and in the Congress of Soviets for support of the aspiring Communist movements around the world, arguing that as the first to throw off the yoke of oppression, Russia should take a leading role in perpetuating the world revolution. He was persuasive, weaving into his rhetoric references to Marxist dogma and appealing to the same instincts which had once spurred on the abolitionists, revolutionary bourgeoisie, the suffragettes and the Jacobins, the cause must be pressed forward, those in bondage must be liberated (10).

    Through hook and by crook, Trotsky was able to convince the Congress of Soviets to issue a Declaration of Brotherhood with both the leadership of the Indochinese Revolt and the South China Revolt, inviting the Jiaxing and Indochinese Communist Party to enter the Third International. Trotsky, emboldened by success in Persia, pushed onward aggressively, arranging a secret meeting with Ikki Kita in August of 1933 at Vladivostok wherein Kita, with permission from other members of the Nippon Kyosanto, signed a memorandum secretly joining the Third International while M.N. Roy publicly participated in joining the Communist Party of India to the Third International. However when Italian representatives hoping to join their Communist Party to the Third International arrived, Trotsky led a public campaign to reject their approaches which so offended the leader of the delegation, Amadeo Bordiga, who had been the person arguing incessantly for the party to join the Third International despite Gramsci's personal concerns about such a measure in the first place, that he left the country a week after arrival without having joined the organisation, loudly and publicly denouncing the Soviet State as an anti-Revolutionary rightist conspiracy meant to lead the international communist movement down the wrong path. This was the first of many disagreements which would come to characterize the Communist Russo-Italian relationship and their respective branches of Communism in the years to come.

    Nevertheless, simply recruiting new branches to the International would not prove sufficient to Trotsky, who hankered for further success to push forward the revolution, theorising that the rotten edifices of the imperialist powers in Asia were on the verge of collapse, and that a few good blows would throw the entire continent into open revolt. However, Trotsky felt that before this push could really be undertaken the final divergent strain of Russian Communism had to be brought fully into line with the wider movement. It was time to deal with Khiva. Beginning in November of 1933, Trotsky began a series of concerted attacks on the independence of Khiva, viciously attacking the Caucasian Clique as rightist profiteers using the cause of the revolution to mask their self-aggrandisement and kleptocratic government which placed a stain upon all revolutionary governments alike. Only by purging the rot from the revolutionary cause could the world revolution be undertaken in the eyes of the Trotskyites.

    In the Congress of Soviets, Trotsky and his supporters held one grand speech after another condemning the Khivan government and calling for its restoration to the Soviet Republic, so that there would be no internal divisions to weaken the International as it moved on to the critical period of revolutionary surge. Meanwhile, Trotsky continued a constant barrage of anti-Khivan rhetoric in writing through the newspaper Trud, while calling upon all fellow revolutionary luminaries to speak up in support of his motion. In the Central Committee, the topic of discussion for weeks on end were on the Khivan issue, with Trotsky swiftly backed by Chernyi, Kamenev, Kaganovich and, less fervently, Tukhachevsky. However, Maria Spiridonova was quick to pick up Kollontai's warnings of Trotsky's ambitions, beginning to openly question whether Trotsky actually wanted to further the revolutionary cause or was simply looking for another success to bolster his popularity in preparations for ascension to total power.

    What had previously been whispers about Trotsky's Bonapartist ambitions were becoming key talking points during committee meetings and soon spread when Bukharin published a joint editorial in both Pravda and Izvetia warning of the dangers of one-man rule and Bonapartism to the dynamism and legitimacy of a revolutionary movement. Although Trotsky was not mentioned in this editorial, there was little doubt as to who Bukharin was calling out - and others soon took up this call. In the Congress of Soviets, Trotsky's speech on the 18th of December was met with calls of Comrade Bonaparte and cries of Tyrant! When Sverdlov finally spoke up in opposition to breaking the solidarity of the Third International on the 4th of January 1934, Trotsky's movement came to a sudden and dramatic halt, now facing an insurmountable challenge. Thus, on the 9th of January the Central Committee voted firmly in opposition to Trotsky's proposal, Tukhachevsky jumping ship to join Kollontai, Spiridonova and the Governing Clique to oppose the measure. Trotsky was left rejected and angry. However, this was not the first time that Trotsky had seen his ambitious plans for the furtherance of the revolution stymied by the Central Committee, only for success to see him forgiven, and on the basis of the considerable support he had been able to muster during his public campaign against the Khivans, he was certain that this time would be no different (11).

    Trotsky would turn to Isaak Zelensky, the General Secretary of the Kirghiz Autonomous Region which dominated the borderlands with the Khivan Khanate. A longtime ally of Trotsky's, Zelensky had served in a variety of posts along the border with the Khivans and Siberian Whites since early in the Civil War with distinction, and had maintained such a role even after the unification. In coordination with others, most prominently Ivan Nikitich Smirnov, another long-term Trotskyite who had previously played a central role in managing the dispatch of forces to Iran, and Vitaliy Markovich Primakov, the Komkor commander of those forces, would begin to shift forces into the Kirghiz Autonomous Region over the course of February and March of 1934. However, fearful of discovery, Trotsky and his supporters were forced to move against the local GBU and particularly the local GPU units to maintain secrecy.

    While no one was harmed, the entirety of the local GPU office was secured and placed under temporary arrest while the GBU commander, Yakov Agranov, a former Chekist who bitterly resented his exclusion from GPU services during the reorganisation, was convinced to support the Trotskyite plans. However, the efforts at maintaining secrecy would force the conspirators to act with dangerous sluggishness, slowly moving more and more forces into the region over the course of several months while praying that the continued silence from the local GPU office would not alert the security forces. While at first glance an extremely unlikely feat, it was determined worthwhile due to how small the local office was and how irregularly their contact with superiors occurred. However, by the end of March the number of forces in the region had surged to nearly 150,000 in bases stretching along the Khivan border and plans were gotten under way for the coming campaign, scheduled for the middle of the month.

    It was at this point that these troop transfers, facilitated by Trotskyites in the Commissariat of Strategy, came to the attention of Commissar Frunze during a spot check on his subordinates. Unable to figure out what exactly was occurring, Frunze, who had been excluded from the plans due to worries of his willingness to participate in such an endeavor, began to query both his own subordinates and the other Commissariats of the Supreme Military Soviet, which led to the matter being brought up at the Committee on State Intelligence. From here, queries to the GBU office returned a suspiciously un-detailed all-clear from Agranov while the response from the Kirghiz GPU office failed to match protocol, sending alarms through the entire intelligence community. As the Trotskyites began to realise that they were on the verge of being discovered, they kicked preparations into high gear, bringing forward the date of the invasion by a week, while it became increasingly clear what was going on.

    GPU agents under one of Goloshchyokin's rivals for leadership of the GPU and Dzerzhinsky's former second-in-command, Vyacheslav Menzhinsky, were rushed to the region to determine what was actually going on, bringing a heavily armed contingent of GBU security forces from the capital with them to act as their armed fist, while Tukhachevsky issued orders to forces in the Kirghiz Autonomous Region to halt all operations until further notice. As Menzhisky descended on Orenburg, terror began to grip the Trotskyites. A man of considerable learning, speaking more than a dozen languages, including Turkish, which would prove of vital importance to the investigation, Menzhinsky had experienced a precipitous loss of position with the death of Dzerzhinsky, losing out in the struggle to succeed him to Uritsky before securing the position of GPU Investigative Department Head. In this role, Menzhinsky had conducted a number of important but secretive investigations and, more publicly, been in charge of hunting down the remaining White sympathizers in Siberia following the conquest. A sickly man suffering from acute angina since the end of his service in Siberia, Menzhinsky relied heavily on his deputy Artur Artuzov, a one-time Yekaterinburg Trotskyite who had directed the initial covert actions which provoked the Siberian Campaign, but who had since turned his back on them when it became clear that such allegiances would scupper any hope of a long-term career in Sverdlov's intelligence organisation, to conduct the investigation.

    Zelensky, realising that they were on the verge of discovery, fled - eventually making his way to Japan where other spooked Trotskyites would gather in time. The flight of the General Secretary of the Autonomous Region on the 4th of March sent alarm bells ringing, and soon saw the GPU agents held by Agranov's GBU men discovered and released, with the entire GBU department placed under arrest. Arrests soon picked up pace as more and more information on the Trotskyites' plans came to light. As word of all this made its way back to Moscow, an emergency session of the Central Committee was called in which Trotsky was called upon to answer for his actions, which he refused, and was followed, on the 7th of March 1934, by a vote to suspend Trotsky from the Central Committee until the truth of the situation could be ascertained. While Chernyi, Kaganovich and Kamenev voted in opposition, the rest of the committee members voted in favor, whereupon Trotsky was removed from the room and placed under temporary house arrest by a discreet guard of GPU officers while the scope of Trotsky's actions were taken under examination and a proper determination of his punishment could be ascertained. Trotsky had gambled and failed. The question everyone was left asking was, what would the consequences be (12)?

    News of Trotsky's house arrest and removal from the Central Committee spread with incredible speed through Moscow, although the reasons for this action and whether or not he had been expelled from the party or the Central Committee remained a topic of discussion and uncertainty, with rumours claiming everything from a failed coup on Trotsky's part, a military coup on the part of Tukhachevsky or treachery on the part of the Governing Clique, out to remove any opposition to their grip on power, to claims that Trotsky had been found in bed with Bukharin's scandalously young wife Anna Larina and that this was revenge on the part of an angry cuckold being floated. However, one thing remained clear, Trotsky was in danger and that only drastic action could save him. Having spent the last eight or so years in Moscow, and having gone out of his way to interact with the public, Trotsky had succeeded in building a significant following in the city, particularly amongst the younger sections of the population who saw his renegade act as a source of inspiration. Therefore, it was not long before groups of young men and women took to the streets, bearing placards and chanting for Trotsky to be restored to his post. Thus, the Trotskyites found themselves in a troubled positions as their benefactor and leader was reaching a crisis point. When word of the public protests began to spread, a core group of followers including Kamenev, Karl Radek and the young Chairman of the Moscow City Committee, Nikolai Bulganin, began to plot to secure Trotsky's release, by force if need by. While Kamenev was hesitant, he found himself spurred on by the much more dynamic Radek and ambitious Bulganin, who saw this as an opportunity to catapult himself to power in Trotsky's time of trouble.

    In the meanwhile, the GPU was conducting an extensive investigation under the direction of Mikhail Pavlovich Schreider, an immensely talented investigator and protégé of Menzhinsky, and Joseph Ostrovsky, the head of the Financial Crimes section of the Investigative Department under whom Schreider had worked for years. Schreider had made a name for himself by his willingness to go after even his own colleagues when they went against regulations or engaged in corrupt activities. In fact, Schreider was hand-picked by Sverdlov for the investigation, having been immensely impressed by the young GPU agent's dedication to his work and unflinching reserve. Schreider, with unlimited manpower resources, was swiftly able to comb through the documents of Trotsky, many of which would have been more than enough to establish Trotsky's disregard for the Central Committee and involvement in the Zelensky Case, the name given to the investigation on the basis of the important role played initially by the former Secretary General, which soon saw the investigation grow. Before long, Trotsky's long-time allies were seeing their homes torn apart as an ever growing mountain of evidence of wrongdoings of all sorts were unearthed.

    It was under these circumstances, and with public protests still growing larger, that Radek was able to convince Kamenev to support his plans for action a week after Trotsky was first placed under house arrest, the 14th of March. It was here that Komdiv Boris Feldman, commander of the 32nd Rifle Division based out of Naro-Fominsk, not far from Moscow, came into play. A later Trotskyite adherent, Feldman had originally been a Tukhachevsky acolyte, but had turned against his former patron over the Commander-in-Chief's failure to provide him with a field command during the Siberian Campaign, placing him far behind those of his peers who had participated in the campaign and likely ending any hope of a major command down the line. Trotsky had been swift to learn of this enmity, and worked to befriend the embittered division commander, as he did so many others during his years in Moscow. When Feldman was contacted by Radek about using his forces to free Trotsky, who, it was becoming increasingly clear, was unlikely to make it out of the current crisis without aid, he moved swiftly, calling up the active troops in his division under the claim that he had received orders to enter Moscow and restore order.

    Within the day the Division was ready for action, setting out for Moscow early on the 15th. Simultaneously, Trotskyite figures joined the public protests, working to enflame the crowds further with wild claims that Trotsky was being tortured and that Kaganovich, Chernyi and Kamenev were all facing arrest as the Governing Clique set out to conclude their coup. Within hours, the crowds had swelled to the tens of thousands, leading Uritsky to order the deployment of many thousands of GBU men, from the Militsiya, Security Forces and more, while the Central Committee was consumed with talk of whether to call up the military. Eventually, the order was given for August Kork, who had been promoted to Military Governor of the Moscow District for his actions in Siberia, to mobilize nearby divisions to potentially aid in bringing the unrest to an end. It was around an hour after this order was given that word came back that the 32nd Rifle Division had set out for Moscow before any orders had been dispatched, a message relayed by an unwitting secretary from the division headquarters. Even as the protests began to turn violent, GBU forces clashing with the protesters, word that a division was marching on the city without permission raced through government ranks provoking great worry and consternation (13).

    Trotsky remained largely unaware of all of these events, as he was forbidden from meeting with anyone not involved in the GPU investigation, preventing him from having any influence on how the events that followed played out. As word that the 32nd Rifle Division was approaching Moscow proper reached Uritsky, he began to redirect the available security forces, augmenting them with the two regiments who were part of the Moscow City Garrison, amounting to some 5,000 men in all, rushing them across the Moskva River to the Moscow State University on the southern bank and blocking off Leninsky Prospekt, renamed in honor of the martyred party leader, the road leading from Naro-Fominsk to the heart of Moscow. Barricades were swiftly constructed as the defenders dug in, even as the protests in the northern parts of the city descended into riots as security forces fell back, their numbers reduced to respond to the forces approaching from the south-west. This weakening of security forces, as well as the associated denuding of guards watching many of the Trotskyite figures in the city allowed the conspirators to act swiftly. Using a unit of hardened Yekaterinburg veterans secreted away in the capital, the Trotskyite conspirators launched an attack on Trotsky's home in hopes of freeing him. GPU and GBU guards were caught by surprise, more than a dozen getting killed in the first minutes of fighting as the guards were forced into retreat. Trotsky was secured by his supporters, if utterly confused at the sudden violence which had allowed his release, but quickly began to gain a picture of what was going on.

    At nearly the same time, the advance forces of the 32nd Rifle Division slammed into the defensive line constructed along Leninsky Prospekt. Initially unclear about the identity of who was blocking their path, the advance forces under the command of Colonel Nikolai Ibansky launched an attack on the barricades, exchanging fire for a couple minutes before they were repelled. Surprised at the ferocity of the resistance, having initially believed the barricade to be held by the rioters they had been dispatched to crush, Ibansky sent up a white flag, hoping to get a clearer understanding of the situation. When Ibansky met with the GBU and regimental commanders, he soon discovered to his horror that his men had been attacking government forces. By this time the following troops of the Rifle Division were catching up to the advanced guard, surprised to find it halted and negotiations under way. Increasingly thrown into confusion as to what exactly was going on, matters took a turn when Ibansky returned to his men with GBU agents in tow, who began to place the divisional commanders under arrest until things could be further clarified while the soldiers of the division were swiftly placed under the command of Kork, who took personal command of the division, lacking trusted commanders to take on the task at hand. At the same time, the riots were getting truly out of hand, as looting exploded, government buildings were attacked and Trotskyites under house arrest were released with their guards driven off or killed.

    Trotsky sought refuge in a recently built housing complex, seeking to bring some level of order to affairs in order to get a proper picture of what was going on. However, by this point security forces were streaming back across the Moskva River, strengthened by an additional division worth of men. The sudden appearance of tens of thousands of heavily armed soldiers and security forces saw the riots and protests quelled with shocking violence - permission having been given to open fire upon any who resisted orders while an immediate curfew was announced, requiring everyone to hunker down. Thousands were arrested and hundreds more killed as the security forces swept through Moscow and the Trotskyite leadership began to bail out.

    Coming to the realisation that events had turned against him, Trotsky directed his closest allies to make their escape from the city, aiming to return to their stronghold in Yekaterinburg until matters could be properly resolved. Kaganovich was directed to bring Trotsky's family in Moscow with him, Trotsky himself fearing that they would get caught up with him should they remain together, while Kamenev was asked to bring Adolph Joffe's family with his own as they made their escape. Trotsky himself was accompanied by Radek and Martov, while Bulganin remained behind, his involvement in the conspiracy not having been revealed to anyone outside the Trotskyite inner circle. However, things were not to go as planned. While Kaganovich was able to make his escape with Trotsky's family, his own and his protégé Nikita Khrushchev, Trotsky's group were caught out. Radek was killed in the resultant pursuit while Trotsky himself was captured with Martov. Kamenev initially made it out of the city, but was discovered by the military forces responding to August Kork's initial call to rally to Moscow and captured alongside his group. Kalinin was able to make his escape as well, bringing with him a collection of younger Trotskyite loyalists, and was soon on the road to Yekaterinburg with his ducklings in tow.

    Over the course of the following week, the remnants of the uprising were crushed as further thousands were imprisoned in preparation for what was to come. Anyone with known Trotskyite affiliations were placed under arrest while Schreider's investigative team worked to tease out those Trotskyites who remained hidden. It was as part of this effort that Bulganin was discovered and taken into custody by forces commanded by the talented Colonel Andrey Vlasov, who had been leading his regiment from Nizhny Novgorod towards Moscow. At the same time, troops were rushed into the Yekaterinburg Military District, with Vladimir Antonov-Ovseenko appointed Military Governor, and further mass arrests were undertaken as the Trotskyite following was removed from power. By the end of April most of these efforts had come to a successful close, as Kaganovich, Khrushchev, Kalinin and their various wards made their way to Japan, where they joined Zelensky and numerous other Trotskyites in exile (14).

    The Trotskyite Affair, as the wider crisis and its aftermath was to be known, had fundamentally shattered the pre-crisis status quo. Central Committee Members had sought to provoke war with an allied nation against Central Committee directives, had instigated popular unrest in the capital which had seen numerous comrades killed or wounded in addition to considerable damage to the city itself, illegally called up military forces for what could only be assumed to be an attempted military coup, and several had broken house arrest orders with violence and sought to flee the city in preparation for unleashing a renewed civil war. Of the Central Committee Members a full third had been involved in the affair to one degree or another and had either fled the country or been placed under arrest while sympathisers and followers of these four individuals had spread throughout the massive Soviet state bureaucracy. Numerous Commissars had been arrested, alongside even more department heads and seconds, while a good section of the military had proven itself unreliable, to the point that some commanders would even be willing to march on the capital as a hostile force. It was a crisis like no other, of a scale and seriousness not faced by the Soviet Republic since the early days of the revolution, and it would require radical actions to resolve. To make matters worse, the already ill Committee Member Anatoly Lunacharsky had passed away in mid-March of 1934, creating even more gaping holes in the state bureaucracy which would need swift resolution.

    Fearful that leaving the matter of Trotsky himself unresolved for long might provoke more chaos, bloodshed and violence, the Central Committee rushed to put him on trial, turning over the matter to Nikolai Krylenko, who had served as Prosecutor General since the death of Dzerzhinsky. Krylenko, a former central figure in the RSDLP who had lost out when the Moscow Bolsheviks took up leadership of the party, had been involved in running show trials for the Cheka before the reorganization, but since then had mainly been left to deal with more mundane trials resulting from GBU investigations. A strong proponent of what he called Socialist Legalism, a school of law which held that rather than whether or not criminality had occurred, it was rather the impact on party and state which should be emphasized, Krylenko hoped to use Trotsky's trial as his ticket to entering the Central Committee and as such set out to make it as great of a spectacle as he could. He invited numerous reporters, both foreign and domestic, to attend the trial and gathered together a massive portfolio of charges to level against Trotsky, both proven and presumed.

    When the trial finally began, in early April, Krylenko soon discovered that he had bitten off more than he could chew. While the case against Trotsky was exceedingly strong, the public nature of the trial allowed Trotsky to use his greatest weapon, his mouth. Trotsky, taking his defence into his own hands, portrayed himself as an outraged party stalwart betrayed by a collection of grubby, corrupt and ambitious bureaucrats, persuasively arguing that he had only ever worked to further the Revolutionary Cause. On and on he spoke, drawing laughs and cries of outrage from the onlooking reporters, who faithfully noted down his words, while Krylenko sunk deeper and deeper into his seat. As the trial dragged on, day by day, over the course of a week and the situation worsened, Krylenko found himself the target of considerable anger and disdain in leadership circles, culminating with his replacement by his predecessor as Prosecutor General, Pyotr Stuchka an elderly former lawyer who had helped lay down much of the Soviet legal framework during the Civil War.

    Stuchka took immediate control of the courtroom, suspending it for a week while he brought himself up to speed. It was during this time that Stuchka came up with the charge around which he would construct his argumentation, that Trotsky had sought to make himself a Bonaparte of the Revolution. When the trial restarted it was under much more stringent control. Reporters were still allowed, but all recording materials were passed to GPU controllers to be checked before they were allowed to leave with them and coverage by the newspaper Trud was suspended, GPU agents raiding the paper's offices in both Yekaterinburg and Moscow soon after, while access for Pravda and Izvetia was increased substantially. Stuchka allowed Trotsky far less of a say in proceedings, bombarding him constantly with a variety of charges, all of which built up to a climax in which Stuchka claimed that Trotsky was seeking to place himself as dictator of the Soviet Republic.

    Swift work by the Congress of Soviets and the Legislative Committee saw Bonapartism written into law as a crime punishable by death, just in time for Trotsky to be judged guilty on such charges, alongside a host of other charges prepared by Schreider and his team. Effectively silenced, Trotsky could do little but try to poke holes in Stuchka's case and loudly lament at the miscarriage of justice he was experiencing, but the end was by now without doubt. With a guilty verdict on the 22nd of April, Trotsky was conducted to the nearby Lubyanka Building, out of which the GPU was headquartered, and led to a basement cell. Three days later, early on the morning of the 25th of April 1934, Trotsky was led out into a small courtyard of the Lubyanka Building where he was met by a firing squad. Two days thereafter he was quietly laid to rest in a Jewish cemetery north of Moscow, with the news of his execution published in the 1st of May issues of both Pravda and Izvetia (15).

    The execution of Trotsky was to be but the first of many, as Feldman, Smirnov, Primakov, Martov, Kamenev and Bulganin, as well as hundreds of Trotskyite functionaries, followed him into the grave after short and speedy trials wherein Schreider was able to lay out any and every infringement upon the Soviet Republic, from corruption and abuses of power to participation on illicit Trotskyite plans, criminal activities and treason. Others, like Lev Chernyi and Trotsky's youngest son Sergei Sedov, were placed into an increasingly extensive network of labor camps which had been built during the preceding decade to work off their crimes to the revolution, aiding in the massive infrastructural projects which would be undertaken during the 1930s and 40s, while many were allowed to continue in their posts but under constant surveillance.

    Former Trotsky allies such as Mikhail Frunze repudiated their association with him and dedicated themselves to the cause, a stance which allowed Frunze to remain as Commissar of Strategy, although with his Commissariat significantly weakened in favour of the Commissariat of Military Security and Intelligence, particularly when dealing with matters of procurement and logistics. However this turnover left behind numerous holes in the system which had to be filled, a fact which the Governing Clique, who had come to completely dominate the Central Committee after the fall of the Trotskyites, exploited to the utmost.

    Krylenko's failures to manage Trotsky's trial had made the reorganization of the Justice system a major concern in Governing Clique circles, resulting in the appointment of Vladimir Antonov-Ovseenko as Commissar of Justice soon after his return from the purging of Yekaterinburg, and his appointment to the Central Committee, matched by the appointment of Commissar of Foreign Affairs Georgy Chicherin to the Central Committee. This was followed by the appointment of Alexander Bogdanov to succeed his old friend Anatoly Lunacharsky as Commissar for both Education and Culture, as well as Central Committee Member. A Sokolnikov ally, Martemyan Ryutin, was appointed to Kaganovich's positions both as Commissar for Industrialization and as a member of the Central Committee - an appointment matched by the Bukharin-ally Yevgeni Preobrazhensky who took on Kamenev's former positions, in effect restoring the power and authority stripped from Sokolnikov and Bukharin by the Trotskyites. Finally, the Central Committee was expanded by two seats to fourteen with the inclusion of Mikhail Frunze - who had proven himself a reliable military leader to Sverdlov, Bukharin and Sokolnikov - and Ivar Smigla, a protégé of Sverdlov's, who was appointed to the Central Committee, given the Commissariat of the Nationalities and tasked with fulfilling the task which Chernyi had so failed to accomplish, the Sovietization of the nationalities. This spate of appointments was to ensure the Governing Clique as the undisputed leading faction on the Central Committee and eventually led Tukhachevsky, Makhno, Kollontai and Spiridonova to end their independent actions, finally uniting the Central Committee behind a common direction and ending any meaningful opposition to the Governing Clique.

    The Trotskyite Affair had severely damaged the Soviet Republic's prestige, and work was immediately begun to not only resolve the issues which the crisis had made clear but also aimed to bolster the state's standing. Trotsky had been an indelible feature of the Soviet movement to the outside world, and his sudden fall from power sent shockwaves through observers of Soviet politics. His central role in the Third International also meant that many of the parties he had involved in the organization began to distance themselves from the organization and the Soviets, with the Nippon Kyosanto particularly displeased at these developments, the result of considerable Trotskyite influence on the Japanese Communists resulting from the country having become a hub for Trotskyite exiles.

    The sudden horrifying bloodshed at the heart of the revolution, Moscow itself, also caused considerable convulsions in the German KPD and the French SFIO, many of their members having found Trotsky a compelling revolutionary figure. The discovery that Trotsky had nearly launched an undeclared invasion of Khiva, sent the Caucasian Clique into convulsions as terror that their cozy positions might be taken from them led the leadership, most prominently Sergo Ordzhonikidze, to contact the Soviet government to ensure that relations between the two states remained peaceful, eventually resulting in the Khivans surrendering a great deal of national autonomy in return for retaining their positions of power in the region, allowing for the basing of Soviet troops, the removal of trade barriers, the stationing of Soviet "advisors" with the government and free transit between their two states, effectively ending Khiva as an independent state, and placing it in a position of effective vassalage to the Soviet Republic. While the Central Committee retained its support for local government, the dominance of the Governing Clique was to result in a significant centralization of power and authority, and the weakening of Nestor Makno's position as a result of these shifts. By the end of 1934, the Soviet Republic had begun to get its legs under itself once more and marched into the second half of the decade far more united than at any time since the end of the Civil War (16).

    Footnotes:
    (10) Trotsky is growing ever bolder as a series of events continually energise the Communist movement. You have the Fall of Siberia in 1928-29, this is soon followed by the South China Communist Revolt, then the Indochinese Revolt starts in 1930 and begins really picking up in 1931, then comes the Two Rivers Crisis in late 1932 and early 1933 and the Conquest of Pessian Persia during the middle of 1933 alongside various other events which I have not gotten into yet. By the end of 1933 and early 1934, there is a definite feeling around the world that Communism is experiencing a major surge and Trotsky wants to urge that development on. As occurred in the immediate aftermath of the Great War, there is a growing hope that a red wave will sweep across the world, leading to a chain reaction of collapsing colonial regimes and rising communist movements. However, there are mixed views on whether this surge is actually happening or if this surge will simply see a petering out like happened once before, and fears that efforts to push forward this movement will actually harm the cause in the long run. I think it is worth emphasizing that the other CC members are not necessarily against urging on the international revolutionary movement, but rather feel that Trotsky's actions are less about ensuring the success of the communist movement and more to do with improving his own political standing.

    (11) Things are getting heated as Trotsky's ever growing drive to push the revolution onward comes under questioning. While Trotsky might have been able to make a more convincing argument against another power than the Khivans, who are ostensibly still the Soviet Republic's allies, there are few targets as ripe for easy conquest. The Chinese form a massive firmly anti-Communist bulwark to the south-east, the Japanese to the east are too strong to challenge, the German Empire and its vassal states lay to the west, and any challenge to their hegemony would bear horrific consequences. The only other real option to the Khivans are the Don Whites, but that risks conflict spinning quickly out of control as European powers involve themselves and goes against Trotsky's ambitions for an Asian-focused communist revolution. The Khivans are far weaker than either the Don Whites or the other targets, lack any external ties which might cause the conflict to spin out of control and are sufficiently divergent from mainstream Communism for Trotsky to be able to call for censure convincingly. Nevertheless, the measure fails due to growing fears of Trotsky's ambitions and how much good faith can be put towards his intensions. Is he trying to propel himself into the role of dictator through a series of reckless gambles which risk ruining the hard work done to create a semblance of international respectability, or is he a dedicated revolutionary seeking to further the cause of the World Revolution - or maybe both? Or neither? Who but Trotsky can really tell by this point.

    (12) Trotsky gets a bit too cute about things in the Kirghiz region, and it comes back to bite him in a massive way. For years, Trotsky has been flouting the rest of the Central Committee, acting without their say-so. However, he has always been able to demonstrate that while not exactly permitted, his actions have been immensely successful. This time, however, the CC catches him before he can make the attempt and, in contrast to his previous actions, this time he acted against the GPU and GBU - he messed with Sverdlov. Previously Sverdlov was willing to let matters be, but now that Trotsky has shown that he won't even respect Sverdlov's sphere of influence, Sverdlov has come to the decision that Trotsky has got to go. Now the question becomes whether he can actually do so.

    (13) Events are coming to a head, as the Trotskyites make their bid to turn things around. Russia stands on the brink, disaster on either side. Schreider is an OTL OGPU agent who apparently went ahead and accused a bunch of his fellow Chekists of improper conduct, actually testifying against Genrikh Yagoda (one of Stalin's pet mass murderers during the Great Purge who was killed off later in the purge). For a secret policeman he seems almost decent. He wanted to kick out Viktor Abamukov from the OGPU because he felt that he was unfit for the office, Abamukov was amazingly corrupt and an inveterate adulterer who enjoyed himself with many of the wives of the people he later had killed. Of course, IOTL people like Yagoda and Abamukov were exactly what Stalin was looking for, but ITTL even the GPU retains a sense of duty and a bizarre code of honor. I tried to find out what forces were stationed at Naro-Fominsk, but it has been a challenge to find good information about where early soviet units were stationed in peacetime. Feldman was yet another of the generals killed off alongside Tukhachevsky IOTL during the Great Purge. I think it is worth mentioning here that very little information about what is actually going on in the Central Committee and with the GPU investigation is actually public, so there is a lot of uncertainty, fear and rumors playing into everything.

    (14) Crises such as the one described here often play out chaotically, with no one quite knowing exactly what is going on and with events hanging on the decisions of seemingly random people. In this case, historians examining events here will continually wonder what might have happened if a commander other than Ibansky had been leading the Advanced Guard, because the 32nd Rifle Division had more than enough firepower available to fight their way through the GBU defences. His decision to stop up and question what exactly was going on ends up spelling the doom of Trotsky and his followers, who subsequently try to make their escape with decidedly mixed results. I know that the entire course of events leading up to Trotsky's fall from power are a bit bizarre, but I think that it remains plausible when you take everything into account. Trotsky was not the instigator of this failed coup (if it can be called that), but was rather drawn in almost against his will. It is a mad scheme mostly thought up by Radek, urged on by Bulganin, who in turn pressures Kamenev into agreeing to the plan. Hell, Feldman thought that there was a lot more to this entire plot than just what is seen here, and when his own men discover that they have been lied to before they have blood on their hands (which would force them to continue forward even if they were opposed to the Trotskyites for fear of what might be done to them if they were caught) the whole plan just falls apart.

    We also see the first mention of Ovseenko in ages. I really have been neglecting him. After events in Petrograd, Ovseenko eventually makes his way to Moscow, where he serves primarily on the southern front working with Makhno. From there he was named Commissar of the Inspectorate - in charge of ensuring compliance to the law by the Commissariats and departments at the state level and amongst local governments and private enterprises. This is based on the OTL Rabkrin (Workers' and Peasants' Inspectorate) which Stalin headed IOTL, but ITTL it is a significantly weaker institution primarily serving as a state auditing institution rather than as an administrative body. It also includes the Complaints Department, where Soviet citizens can provide evidence about breaches of the law by the aforementioned institutions. It is also worth mentioning that while they receive complaints and conduct audits and inspections, the Inspectorate has to turn over all actual enforcement duties to the GBU.

    (15) And so ends the life of Lev Davidovich Bronstein, known to all as Leon Trotsky. I really, really hope that this lives up to everyone's expectations. Trotsky has been an integral figure from the starting moments of ADiJ and has been an incredibly interesting character to try to work with. I hope that I have been able to do him justice in all of this, and that the events depicted here are sufficiently epic. His fall from power is sudden and precipitous, but Trotsky, his followers and his beliefs will continue to play an immensely influential role in the development of Communism and world events moving forward. The debacle with Krylenko hopefully also allows Trotsky to have his last moment in the sun, before he is snuffed out. One thing that I think is really important to make a note of is the fact that Bonapartism, meaning attempts by revolutionary figures to secure a dictatorial positions, ends up becoming a specific legal term in Socialist revolutionary legislation. This is probably where the paths of OTL's Soviet Union and TTL Soviet Republic most dramatically take diametrically opposite directions. ITTL the idea of a single, all-powerful, leader of the revolutionary movement comes to be viewed as anathema, as a revolutionary divergence which risks undermining the revolutionary cause entirely, whereas IOTL it ended up a core feature of many Communist regimes. Instead we see the entrenchment of Collective Leadership and a determination to ensure that no single person is able to secure all-out power, or even make the attempt to secure it.

    (16) I know that things went quickly there at the start, with a lot of major figures suddenly killed off or consigned to the labor camps, but this section is already three paragraphs longer than originally planned so I hope you will forgive me. The labor camps are not quite the GULAGs of OTL, given that some of the figures who built the system IOTL are not involved ITTL, but the Trotskyite Affair sees a significant expansion in these labor camps and their adoption as punishment for a lot of more severe crimes - the labor force they provide help with building various infrastructure projects in places where no human should ordinarily be able to do such work. They aren't quite the death traps that the GULAGs were IOTL, but they are bad. The ones to look out for amongst these new CC members are probably Ryutin, Smigla and Frunze. The inclusion of Frunze on the CC really irks Tukhachevsky who by this point has seen his position reduced to little more than a ceremonial head of the military but there is little he can do other than complain. He has been able to strengthen his position a bit through the creation of a Military Inspectorate, meant to prevent the sort of secret troop movements which Trotsky engaged in by placing a Military Inspector in every force from the regimental level and above which communicates back to the Inspectorate, which in turn answers directly to Tukhachevsky, on the actions taken by various commanders. In time this Military Inspectorate also ends up in charge of determining which commanders to promote and demote and handling disciplinary actions once the Commissariat of Military Security and Intelligence has determined that a breach in military law has occurred.

    The Central Committee Membership as of the End of 1934: Chairman Yakov Sverdlov, Nikolai Bukharin and Grigori Sokolnikov, Vladimir Antonov-Ovseenko, Georgy Chicherin, Marteyman Ryutin, Alexander Bodganov, Yevgeni Preobrazhensky, Ivar Smigla, Nestor Makhno, Mikhail Tukhachevsky, Mikhail Frunze, Maria Spiridonova and Alexandra Kollontai.

    End Note:
    This is the big one. The one I was looking towards when I started working on the timeline again. Having now reread the entire thing as I was editing it, I think it ended up quite well. There was an incredible amount of research put into figuring out what ideological positions everyone mentioned might hold, the roles people might undertake and just figuring out how the entire Soviet state would work. There are some parallels to OTL's Soviet Union, but the number of divergences really make it a major challenge to work out. I really, really hope it lives up to my own and your expectations.

    I really hope that you guys will be willing to discuss and debate these developments, I really enjoy it when the thread has a good back-and-forth going and it often helps generate ideas or kick the tires on my own ideas.

    I finally start working again on Monday, so looking forward to that quite a bit.

    Hope you all stay safe out there!
     
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    Feature: Three Soviet Leaders
  • The Trotskyite Affair has provided quite the bombshell, and before @Zulfurium gets down to explore the numerous ripples that will come of this development, it's a good time to sit back and take a breather - although for this Feature, we're staying in Soviet Russia anyway.
    One of the strong points of ADiJ for me, when I first discovered it, was the sheer star quality of its cast. So many great, looming personalities from the period have been put in different positions from OTL and have had the chance to rise and fall. Inevitably, as the TL has moved past the Great War, some of these big names have been left by the wayside a bit. Others still have surfaced back up in the TL, but with some gaps in what they've been up to in the preceding years. Zulfurium and I have selected together three prominent Russian names - all of them veterans of previous struggles in some way or another - to illustrate what they've been doing over the past decade of ADiJ, and what their position looks like in the aftermath of the Trotskyite Affair. Hope you enjoy!
    As always, if you spot any mistake or factual error, please be so kind as to flag it.

    Feature: Three Soviet Leaders

    Nestor_Makhno_and_his_Lieutenants%2C_Berdyansk%2C_1919.jpg

    Nestor Makhno and affiliated military commanders during the Russian Civil War in 1919, in Berdyansk

    The Black Eminence​

    Nestor Makhno entered the Russian Civil War a plump, baby-faced youth with only shepherding, painting, and working at an iron foundry as his work experiences. He came out the other side as a lean, weathered, tough revolutionary hero who’d proven himself a natural-born military prodigy, and as a leading face of the anarchist movement around the world.
    Ironically, given his significant political standing and his seat in the Central Committee as part of the loosely affiliated anarchist faction, Makhno held no great interest in questions of high politics and the machinery of the Soviet state. This is in part what endeared him to many Soviet citizens, their affection for him almost of a pre-political nature: Makhno remained aloof of the feverish positioning that immediately preceded, and then briefly followed, the Trotskyite Affair. He was consistent in his commitment to the core issues of peasant well-being and local communities, and while his military record during the Civil War loomed large in the public’s mind, over time it was his quiet, pragmatic focus on practical political and organisational questions that came to characterise the latter part of his life. In these efforts, the ongoing working relationship with Sokolnikov proved fundamental, as it allowed the two to get to work on improving the daily lot of Soviet citizens – with an attention to minority questions and farmer problems that still represented a bit of a blind spot for more conventional Russian communists. It also compensated for Makhno’s eminent weakness – most of his experience with self-organisation had been limited to Ukraine, and the partnership with Sokolnikov allowed for a smoother transition to applying the lessons learnt in Ukraine to a national scale. (1)

    Particularly in Siberia, where the violence and scale of the fighting, combined with the harsh terrain and the weakness of the preceding White regime had greatly upended traditional patterns of life and changed the face of the countryside, Makhno and Sokolnikov had their work cut out for them. The local farming and mining communities offered, on the one hand, an exciting opportunity to experiment with anarchism – but on the other hand, they presented a challenge for the government to reassert control over, and their long-term viability remained an open question without large investment coming in from the political leadership. Immediate action was politically impossible with Trotsky’s star higher than ever following the Siberian campaign – not to mention the fact that internal displacement of farmers during the multiple stages of the Civil War had made even censuses a complicated and inaccurate proposition in the initial phases after reunification. While Lazar Kaganovich was eventually able to make inroads, and paved the way for future integration of the local economy into the wider socialist system with an energetic campaign of confiscation, the actual job of making something coherent out of the scattered Siberian communes fell to Makhno. In an inventive scheme meant to boost micro-loans, therefore, massive newly confiscated tracts of land served as collateral to local investment: the credit would go towards establishing public utilities in villages, but with an eye to the long term, it also allowed farmers to receive technical training, acquaint themselves with more efficient farming techniques, and purchase or loan mechanised equipment. The hope was that, in the long term, this would harmonise Siberian farming activities with those in the rest of the country – with cooperative enterprise acting in concert with communal institutions to create a closely supervised market of agricultural goods. This also allowed for the production, testing, and deployment of industrial resource extraction machinery – a development which was to become relevant in the future. Land reform accelerated rapidly in the wake of Trotsky’s execution, with Makhno finding himself overtaken by the very system that had been holding him back – as undoing the experience of the past became a way for the Soviet Republic to try and banish the spectre of Civil War-era divisions for good. (2)

    These efforts greatly absorbed the majority of Makhno’s time. A good portion of the rest was dedicated to his daughter, Yelena, and to his wife, Halyna Kuzmenko – herself a veteran of the revolution, and an anarchist, although much more of a Ukrainian nationalist than Makhno himself, and still chafed by the continued separation of the majority of Ukraine from the Soviet Republic. Makhno never publicly commented on the Don Republic ruling over the lands he’d spent the majority of the Civil War in, and when not working on local Siberian communities, he devoted himself to the development of anarchist political theory. (3) The complex reality of Russian peasant life provided him with considerable grounds for political experimentation, but also with serious stress-tests to his ideology. Being in favour of local self-rule sounded relatively uncomplicated in principle, but traditional Russian peasant life was often brutal, extremely prescriptive, and surprisingly authoritarian – with harsh corporal punishments and strong internal hierarchies. A villager himself, Makhno was well acquainted with the less palatable side of village life, and how it didn’t fit with either anarchist theory or the practical wishes of the Central Committe. The dislocation of the preceding two decades allowed Makhno more grounds for reform, and over time Makhno developed his so-called platformist framework, which set out to organise local self-government along anarchical principles. Platformism focused on four key principles: tactical unity, that is to say, anarchist movements had to adopt consistent tactics to maximise their influence in the wide and diverse environment of the far left, and local self-governing units had to remain cohesive and consistent in their policymaking, to avoid opening a flank to centralisation efforts from the Central Committee – a position that revealed some of Makhno’s anxiety that another Trotsky might come again in the future, or that perhaps Sverdlov would eventually overreach, as the Governing Clique greatly strengthened itself in the aftermath of the Affair. This went hand in hand with theoretical unity – anarchist activists and communities had to educate themselves about theory before concerning with practice, so as to maintain an independent identity in the cauldron of leftist political experimentation. Collective responsibility warned off against individual revolutionaries making rash decisions that could harm the entire movement – hardly a controversial position in leftist politics following Trotsky’s rise and fall. Finally, federalism was to square off the need for service to the revolutionary cause with the principle of self-governing, and was to be guarded as a key part of the Soviet system against all comers. After some initial confusion related to the term “collective responsibility”, which looked distinctly un-anarchist to some, Makhno clarified the consensus-based nature of such a responsibility, reinforcing the need for local communities where individuals could meaningfully participate in the communal aspect of society and policymaking. This clarification took place across an increasingly healthy correspondence with Malatesta and Gramsci – perhaps the one avenue where the Italian People’s Republic and a member of the Soviet Central Committee saw eye to eye. In a sense, platformism developed just in time – for soon after its achievement of political maturity, the anarchist faction ceased all meaningful opposition to the Governing Clique. By then, local communities in Siberia, and anarchist activists in the political system, had the theoretical tools and political results to stand on their own feet. (4)

    Footnotes:

    (1) This is a rehash of what Makhno has previously been up to in the course of the TL. Useful to get our bearings, but also to explore the enigmatic, aloof qualities that make Makhno such a popular figure – here is a man whose commitment to the revolution, as opposed to his own aggrandisement and benefit, cannot be doubted by anybody.

    (2) Zulfurium and I have used a lot of words to describe what the agricultural “communal market” of ITTL Soviet Russia looks like, but there’s still massive disparity within the country. There’s the complicated legacy of Yekaterinburg, of course, but then there’s also the bewildering complexity of Siberia, where distance, isolation, and self-reliance sometimes undermine communities – and other times prove to be virtues instead. Thankfully, the overabundance of land can be turned into an asset to support Moscow’s new micro-loan and utilities plan for rural regions, and local self government need not be a weakness if properly channeled – although Makhno’s ability to control these developments is in question. You still won’t get indoor plumbing in Siberia any time soon, but this positively transforms Russian villages, making them much more livable places connected to the outside world.

    (3) Makhno developed Platfortism IOTL as a member of the Russian exile community in Paris. Some aspects of his political thinking are obviously retained ITTL – such as his relative indiffeence to the Ukrainian national question. It might seem odd, but ultimately Makhno sees revolutionary upheavals as a chance to improve the lot of peasants and workers – he feels sorry that people in the Don are missing on the opportunity, but it’s a question of justice not nationality. If he retains some special sentimentality for “his” lands that are now in the Don, that’s not something he displays in public.
    Other aspects of the ideology will obviously change, as it’s being formed under radically different circumstances.

    (4) OTL, Platformism became a way for outnumbered groups of anarchists to have oversized influence among the proletariat. ITTL, it’s about retaining identity even in the flux of tent pole party politics – a particularly pressing concern following the dissolution of the Anarchist Clique into the Governing Clique in the aftermath of the Trotskyite Affair. Moreover, whereas IOTL platformism primarily addresses activist groups, ITTL it’s meant as a tool for local (and particularly Siberian) communities to demonstrate their ability to rule themselves, and their economic viability – to protect them from possible centralist impulses on the part of the government in Moscow. The correspondence with Malatesta and subsequent clearing of the air is OTL, although ITTL I threw in Gramsci for good measure – he’ll be very interested in the kind of work Makhno has been doing.

    1200px-Antonov-rusia--russianbolshevik00rossuoft.png

    Vladimir Antonov-Ovseenko in his office at the Commissariat of the Inspectorate

    The Unlikely Commissar​

    For Vladimir Antonov-Ovseenko, the years between the Civil War and the Trotskyite Affair were a time of promise unfulfilled. One of the most gifted intellectuals in the exceptional cadre of pre-Great-War revolutionaries, and one of the key commanders during the internecine conflict thanks to his military college education – present at all battles on the Southern Front side by side with Nestor Makhno, save for a brief bout of mental illness which temporarily removed him from the front lines – Ovseenko had spent the subsequent decade as Commissar of the Inspectorate, a position he won thanks to Sverdlov’s faith in him, and which made him part of the vast submerged security infrastructure which now ramified across the Soviet state, with Sverdlov at the head. (1) A strong believer in party democracy, and fully onboard with the tent pole approach adopted by the Soviet Republic, Ovseenko tried to take citizen complaints seriously, and turned auditing of state institutions into a specialised field with a sophisticated rulebook – but he went up against two fundamental limits, one administrative, the other political. For one, the Commissariat he led had no enforcement authority or true administrative power. The auditing was merely advisory, informing the GBU when organs when state actors, public officials, and private entities failed to comply with the law. The Commissariat might be part of Sverdlov’s shadowy edifice, but it inevitably played second fiddle to such enforcement institutions. Politically, Ovseenko experienced a degree of isolation – while a believer in party democracy, he often reserved scathing criticism for the extent to which a market economy had been allowed to take root alongside the socialist way of life in the Soviet Republic. While in this respect he aligned somewhat with Trotsky’s own command economy positions, he remained fiercely loyal to Sverdlov and steered well clear of Trotskyites and formal political activism in general, devoting himself to his legal work. (5)

    This distance served him in good stead: as Trotskyites all over the country got arrested en masse, and the question of military leadership had risen to an acute pitch following the incident with the 32nd Rifle Division, senior party members suddenly remembered that Ovseenko had been a talented military commander before developing his impressive legal expertise. Most fundamentally, Ovseenko had an excellent qualification at this juncture – he still held Sverdlov’s trust. Virtually overnight, Ovseenko found himself catapulted into a position of great responsibility, as Military Governor of the Yekaterinburg district – his job being primarily to ensure troop loyalty and security in the region, while working with select Central Committee members, such as Makhno and Sokolnikov, on the re-harmonisation and final integration of Yekaterinburg into the Republic.
    Upon returning to Moscow, following the stabilisation of Yekaterinburg and the arrest of the eminent Trotskyites still active in the region, Ovseenko received his reward: a Central Committee seat, which to many commentators finally righted an old wrong by acknowledging the veteran revolutionary’s contribution to the birth and growth of the Soviet state. There was more to come for Ovseenko, now that the old hero of the revolution was finally catapulted back to the very front of the revolutionary stage: he was entrusted with the post of Commissar of Justice, where his decade of practice auditing the Soviet administration would result in renewed anti-corruption drives. (6)

    Footnotes:

    (5) Again setting the stage for divergences to come. This might seem like a sad fate for one of the most prominent revolutionaries in the old Russian Empire, but it’s miles ahead of his OTL fate – with his opposition to Stalinism and authoritarian tendences, as well as his support for Trotsky in the succession, getting him sacked. After a brief diplomatic stint he ended up working in the legal field much as ITTL, but was arrested during the purges of 1937 and eventually shot. ITTL, his country is kinder to him – and the butterflies distance him more from Trotsky than was the case IOTL. He still ends up with a good job as Sverdlov’s trusted collaborator, mind. It’s just less glamorous than such a prominent revolutionary might rightfully deserve.

    (6) A man’s loss is another man’s gain. The sudden need for reliable, Sverdlov-affiliated officers with considerable experience is a significant windfall for Ovseenko, who first gets appointed as Military Governor in Yekaterinburg and then, after clearing up the house and paving the way for civilian government, gets a seat on the Central Committee. How he will use it, especially now that opposition is no longer viable in the CC and his close alignment with Sverdlov, is an open question – but there’s no doubt that his combination of military talent, legal and administrative training, and sheer experience dating back to the revolution of 1905 makes him a senior trustworthy figure in the Soviet government.

    686px-Alexandra_Kollontai.jpg

    A young Alexandra Kollontai

    The Web-Weaver in Moscow​

    A surprising mixture of economic radicalism and political moderation, Alexandra Kollontai could rightfully claim to be one of the architects of Soviet Russia’s success – her contributions starting all the way back with the revolution of 1905. In many ways, Kollontai appeared to contemporary commentators as a coin with two radically different sides: one was the firm and unwavering critiquer of the “bourgeois infiltrations” which in her opinion characterised Sokolnikov’s economic policies. The other was the indefatigable Commissar for welfare, who worked closely with Sokolnikov himself to implement policy and make sure ordinary Soviet citizens benefited from revolutionary policies. Kollontai was more than capable of firebrand speeches – not for nothing her denunciation of Trotsky as the would-be Russian Bonaparte immediately defined her public perception – but she was also a moderate in the Central Committee, doling out her support on a case by case issue without putting in a systematic effort to stop the centripetal impulses of Soviet governance following the Trotskyite Affair. (7)

    Two things about Kollontai were clear to all, however: she possessed an iron-willed commitment to make women full Soviet citizens, engaged in – and mobilised for – the future of their country, with their emancipation being treated as a package offer, inseparable from wider questions of welfare. And her activities as a socialite in Moscow made her the key for anyone wishing to network with the cadre of Soviet political leaders. A gifted conversationalist with a talent for languages, first-hand experience with activism in other countries, and at the heart of a dense web of connections, Kollontai functioned as a social gatekeeper for party functionnaires at the highest level – accruing influence without rocking the boat of the Central Committee. If Kollontai showed up at the premiere of a new Proletkult movie, then state and party media knew to pay attention. Her polyglot disposition made her the darling of the foreign press whenever they were left looking for an explanation to the complex political developments taking place in Russia. Her access and friendship to many powerful figures – such as Polina Zhemchuzhina and her husband, Molotov – allowed Kollontai to cautiously dole out access to the halls of power, by introducing people whenever convenient – gathering considerable clout and an informal network of favours in exchange. There was more to her than political intelligence and the right business cards, however: at the heart of Kollontai’s influence was her position as Commissar for Welfare. If the addition of a government portfolio was a boon to anyone vying for influence in Moscow, the specific nature of welfare allowed Kollontai to play to her strengths. A word in the ear of Lunacharsky – and later on, Bogdanov – could create significant ripples in the coordination between Kollontai’s welfare portfolio and the Commissariat for Education. It’s important to emphasise the degree to which literacy recovery and general education was effectively a form of welfare provision to many adults in the Soviet Republic, with the impressive results finally mending the deep social and economic wounds of the Civil War. In this context, as Commissar for Welfare, Kollontai stood at the critical intersection between Sokolnikov’s economic domain and education policies. Moreover, the implementation of welfare politics often served as a useful barometre for the popular mood, giving Kollontai an often underestimated role in both analysing and nudging public opinion, and perception of the benefits of life in a communist society. All of this built up to combine a serious ability to influence Soviet politics. While this won her many friends – some true, some of convenience – her ceaseless activism and constant agitation for women’s inclusion and participation in the construction of Soviet society rubbed many colleagues the wrong way. Whether slamming her influence, her seeming ability to easily blend in with foreigners – a relevant source of suspicion in the increasingly tense international climate following the Trotskyite Affair – or simply adopting rancorous chauvinistic views to her gender, critics of Kollontai abounded in Soviet high society. Nevertheless, her position was safe, nonetheless due to her undisputable loyalty to the party. Kollontai’s ability to efficiently implement policies she personally disagreed with, and her inclination to go with the flow in the Central Committee rather than challnge the power of the Governing Clique, kept her on Sverdlov’s good side – and ensured that the notoriety of the woman who shouted “Bonaparte!” in Trotsky’s face never presented a threat to the stability of the Central Committee. (8)

    Footnotes:

    (7) This description is apparently full of contradictions – but it isn’t. It’s at the heart of who Kollontai was IOTL as well, even though circumstances here are vastly different. The key thing to understand about her character is that Kollontai was simultaneously not afraid to speak her mind, but ultimately loyal to the party first and foremost, putting in the energy and commitment to implement policy even when she disagreed with it. Whether this is to be interpreted as positive loyalty or personal hypocrisy is not for me to judge, but it is undeniable that IOTL this was brought to rather extreme lengths, as Kollontai got repeatedly put on trial for “indiscipline”, risking Trotsky’s wrath and then Stalin’s, until she eventually just gave up on the cause of women’s emancipation and retreated from outspoken opposition to the regime. Here, the situation is much more favourable, allowing her to get more of what she wants – but only to some degree, and particularly on the economy, where her views are very different to Sokolnikov’s, she is forced to make compromises she views as inevitably painful and bourgeois.

    (8) OTL, Kollontai survived Stalin. ITTL, she can definitely survive Sverdlov. Indeed, she ends up thriving as one of the most influential socialites in Moscow, to say nothing of her Commissariat portfolio and Central Committee seat. OTL, Kollontai found herself shifted to the diplomatic service as Stalin attempted to remove her from any position where she might do damage to his centripetal trajectory – she was only the third woman in history to serve in an official diplomatic capacity, and soon discovered she was very good at the job. Her talent for languages and conversations made her one of the OTL USSR’s most respected diplomats abroad. ITTL, she never gets the chance to find out about her surprising diplomatic skills – but she does get to devote her intellectual power to women’s emancipation and welfare, all the while working closely with other Commissars, and particularly Sokolnikov, which expands her influence well beyond the official purview of her portfolio. Ultimately, her loyalty to the party, commitment to the decision-making of the Central Committee regardless of the outcome, and relative acquiescence with the Governing Clique guarantee that she will maintain her influential network, even as life gets harder in the aftermath of the Trotskyite Affair. The “years of innocence” might be over for the ITTL Soviet Republic, but whatever comes next, Kollontai will be there to witness it – and influence it, if she can.

    End note: I hope you enjoyed this look into some rather veteran names of the timeline! I look forward to revisiting some other big names from multiple countries and see how much their lives have changed since the end of the Great War. If there's anyone you'd like to see featured, Zulfurium and I are all ears! Thanks again to him for hosting my content here on the TL. Looking forward to discussing the material with you all, and please stay safe.
     
    Update Thirty-Three (Pt. 2): A Theory of Great Men
  • A Theory of Great Men

    Red_Army_in_Tbilisi_Feb_25_1921.jpg

    Don Army Prepares For Invasion of Georgia

    The Hydra Consumes Itself​

    The years between the Siberian Campaign and Trotsky's Fall were a time of bitter troubles for the Don Republic. Already a politically divided state with a tenuous sense of national sovereignty and identity, the consolidation of the Soviet Republic and its shift from peaceful co-existence to violent expansionism was to result in a precipitous radicalisation of Don politics as the old guard of the Kadets, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives were increasingly sidelined politically by radical forces. At the same time, both the Council of Generals and the Duma began to press for an expansion of their powers and authorities while separatist sentiments rose precipitously, particularly within the Ukrainian population, which felt that government from Rostov made little sense when the vast majority of the state's population and land area were in the Ukraine.

    Ukraine had slowly stitched itself together after the Civil War was brought to a close, and in the process had seen what could only be described as a cultural and societal renaissance as artists, poets and writers began to rise to prominence by the hundreds. Coming out of the lower classes, the traditional social structures having been shattered during the Great War, Revolution and Civil War, these artists rarely had the benefits of a systemic education, caused by privation, war, famine and the need to earn a living in order to survive, but by working on the brink of what was possible, getting acquainted with world culture and imbuing their works with the latest trends in order to create artworks at the very front edge of modernity, they were allowed to experience an impressive growth in popularity - their novels being translated into foreign languages and artworks sold for small fortunes at international auctions by the end of the decade. The main building blocks of their art were a constant quest for independence, both national and independent, as well as a belief in their own idealisation of an independent Ukraine. Numerous literary organisations flourished across much of the Ukraine during this time, seeking to develop a new Ukrainian literature to separate them from their mostly Russian rulers in the Don while they set up schools to teach basic literacy in the Ukrainian language and script.

    While the Ukrainians never truly made much of an effort to participate in the Don government, the same could not be said for the leadership in the Don's attitude towards the Ukraine. A platform aimed at securing Ukrainian buy-in to the Don regime was a consistent part of the party planks of all three mainstream parties, and was further backed by both the Young Russians and Union of Monarchists, while the National Union used this open pandering to the Ukrainians to bolster their support amongst the Russian population of the Republic instead. This support for Ukrainian nationalism, if not Ukrainian separatism, saw the appointment of primarily Ukrainian officials to all parts of the government apparatus within the Ukraine itself while the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church was allowed to operate independently of the Russian Orthodox Church which ruled in the rest of the Don, to the considerable protests of the remnants of the Russian church hierarchy.

    In the Duma, politics were marred by constant horse-trading and pork-barreling when not consumed by bad faith infighting and denunciations, an increasingly endemic issue as the more radical parties secured a rapidly growing following amongst an ever more disillusioned public. Elections held in 1930 saw the three mainstream parties all lose significant levels of support, with particularly the Union of Monarchists and Russian National Union gaining ground while Ukrainian separatists lost some of the steam which they had been gathering to their cause near the end of the Civil War.

    It was also during these years that the various Émigré factions increasingly began to return to the Don Republic, the emigrés finding themselves increasingly unwelcome in Great Britain, France and Germany as Western and Central Europe increasingly turned their thoughts towards domestic affairs. However, in the relative quiet which followed the Siberian Conquest the alarmist tones taken by the Don radicals which had been seeing so much success were increasingly met with skepticism. As the national backers of the mainstream parties fell into political turmoil, as occurred in France, colonial troubles, as was the case for both France and Britain, or realigned their support towards the Soviet Republic, as was the case with the Germans, the influence and interest of foreign powers in Don politics weakened. The Two Rivers Crisis saw the British withdraw entirely from the Don Republic while the Indochinese Revolt drew ever more French resources away from the region over the course of the decade.

    It was this precipitous reduction in resources, particularly in the form of foreign investments, which was to spur the Council of Generals to action. Having received warnings of a new budget which would slash significant parts of the Don military in favor of civilian spending, the generals chose to push for military action so as to demonstrate their importance to the Republic and the resultant need for continued military spending. After some consideration the focus eventually turned towards the reconquest of Georgia - the long-held ambitions of General Boris Shteifo, who had served on the Caucasian Front during the Great War and had since sought to formulate a plan for the recapture of the lost Russian domains in the Caucasus.

    At a meeting of the Council of Generals, General Yevgeny Miller, both an ally and rival of the influential General Nikolai Yudenich, set forth a proposal to press forward with Shteifon's plans. After some debate this proposal began to gain steam, with the youthful General Alexander Rodzyanko, nephew to the prominent politician Mikhail Rodzyanko, leading the younger generals in supporting the measure and in the process secured support from the Liberal Democrats and their Conservative allies for the measure - this being sufficient to prevent any Duma veto of the plans as the two parties held 36% of the seats in the Duma combined. Thus, on the 17th of September 1932 the Council of Generals voted in favor of an invasion of Georgia, securing more than the two-thirds support needed to keep the neutered Wrangel from vetoing the measure. Two days later, on the 19th, the measure was passed by the Duma, with the National Union, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives all voting in favor. The Don Republic was going to war (17).

    The Democratic Republic of Georgia had been in a precarious position since its inception, surrounded on all sides by powers more than willing to absorb it and reliant upon the mutual distrust of those neighbours to make the maintenance of a buffer state worthwhile. Formed from a union of various Georgian and regional minority parties, the Georgian state had been established at the tail end of the Great War with a promise of aid and protection from the German Empire, a fact which was to endear the Germans to the Georgians for decades to come.

    Notably, the leadership of the young state was originally drawn primarily from the Social Democratic Party of Georgia, formed primarily from the renamed Georgian Mensheviks, who had dominated politics in the region since before the 1905 Revolution, but saw the adoption of an actual functioning multi-party democracy soon after it established its independence. While the Social Democrats would secure 81.5% of the vote in the first elections, held on the 14th of February 1919, opposition parties such as the right-wing National Democratic Party and center-right Georgian Socialist-Federalist Revolutionary Party soon emerged to contest the elections alongside minority Ossetian, Armenian, Azeri, Abkhazian and Russian parties and eventually a Communist Party of Georgia, although there was considerable debate in the Constituent Assembly of Georgia before the party was allowed entry into the parliament in 1927. Nevertheless, for the duration of the 1920s it was the Social Democratic Party which dominated political affairs.

    Early in its existence, the young republic was faced with a series of major challenges. First of all was the matter of securing international recognition, a task handed over to the talented diplomat Irakli Tsereteli who attended the Copenhagen Conference and oversaw the recognition of Georgian independence. This was soon followed by troubled ethnic relations. While an ambitious land reform program was well handled by the Social Democratic government and a series of judicial reforms and the implementation of local self-government programmes for various minorities were undertaken, the Georgians were nevertheless forced to deal with near-constant uprisings, particularly amongst the Ossetians and to a lesser extent the Abkhazians, while the Social Democratic Party itself saw a gradual shift in ideology away from internationalist revolutionary socialism in favor of a more nationalistic social democracy increasingly modelled on the German SPD.

    Georgia had found itself under threat from their White neighbors to the north on multiple occasions, fighting a series of border conflicts during the Russian Civil War with little to show from it other than a couple bodies and increased hostility on either side. To the south the Ottomans initially proved a constant aggressor along the borders, as the Pan-Turianism of the CUP urged the Muslim major power to contest for rule of the Caucasus, although the Ottomans increasingly found themselves more occupied by events in Central Asia and then Kurdish Iran more so than matters in Georgia. With Kemal Pasha's rise to power matters finally began to settle down, allowing for peace on the southern border. Hundreds of laws were passed by the various the Presidents of the Constituent Assembly early in the life of the republic, on topics ranging from citizenship, local elections, defence and the official state language to agriculture, the legal system, a national system of public education, fiscal and monetary policies, railway legislation as well as several industrial programmes for foreign trade and domestic production.

    In 1921, in the face of a threatened invasion by the Ottoman Empire, the Georgians established a modern constitution on which the state was to be run for the next decade and a bit. During this period, the Georgian state was led by the position of Chairman of the Government as chief executive, an appointed office, on a one-year term, with the post not held by any single individual for more than two consecutive terms. This resulted in something of a revolving door at the top, as Social Democratic Chairmen spent a year or two in power at most before returning to the fold, rarely having the time to put their individual stamp on the Georgian state. Furthermore, as elections in 1922, 1925 and 1928 saw the emergence of rival parties to power, the fight over who should sit as chairman grew increasingly intense. The first non-Social Democratic Chairman was to be Ioseb Bratashvili of the Socialist-Federalists in an alliance with several minority parties in 1927, who set out to make the Georgian state more inclusive towards minorities, pressing for greater representation in the Constituent Assembly, while also pushing for more conservative limitations on the Social Democratic reforms of the preceding two years.

    The period between 1925 and 1927 had seen increasing divisions emerge within the Social Democratic Party as Tsereteli grew increasingly dissatisfied at the nationalistic character the party had adopted, having begun campaigning for Georgia to join the Third International in the aftermath of the Treaty of Tsarskoye Selo as a way of demonstrating the Georgian state's commitment to the international revolutionary cause. This had resulted in bitter intra-party conflict which pushed the Social Democrats ever further to the left, proposing and implementing increasingly radical policies which gradually alienated their more centrist supporters. This would ultimately result in the splintering of the party and the formation of the Communist Party by Tsereteli in 1927, with Bratashvili sweeping in to exploit the momentary weakening of the Social Democrats to secure the top post.

    Bratashvili's rule would only last for a year, but inaugurated a period of constantly shifting political allegiance as a Social Democratic administration was replaced by Liberal Democrats under Zurab Avalishvili, a wildly popular party formed in 1924 by Avalishvili, who in turn gave way to National Democrats under Spiridon Kedia, before shifting back to the Liberal Democrats. In the five years between 1927 and 1932, all four parties would hold power non-consecutively as the political scene grew ever more chaotic and no Chairman was able to find the support needed to pass anything more complex than basic budget extensions.

    As 1932 dawned, support surged suddenly for the Communist Party, marking the rise of a fifth major political party to the heights of Georgian politics. Once again demonstrating a remarkably adept political mind, Tsereteli was able to secure appointment as Chairman with the cautious support of the Social Democrats. Tsereteli would follow a policy of rapprochement with the Khivan Khanate, viewing them as a decent first step on the road to rebuilding diplomatic relations with the Soviet Republic and wider Communist community. It was in part Tsereteli's appointment, as well as the internal pressures in Rostov, which ultimately led to the widespread support for the invasion of Georgia in the Don Republic (18).

    The invasion force prepared by the Don generals numbered some 40,000 infantry, 5,000 cavalry and a smattering of mostly Civil War-era armaments, with the exception of two companies of French Char D1 tanks in addition and a pre-existing collection of old but well-maintained Renault FT-17s. They massed at Yektaterinodar, near the mouth of the Kuban River, under the command of General Yevgeny Miller, lacking a better avenue of attack. Largely a scraping together of whatever units were immediately available and unnecessary to keep the Soviet Republic in check, the force lacked much in the way of coordination and only contained two regiments' worth of veterans primarily serving in the cavalry and artillery while the rest of their force consisted of recently drummed up conscripts.

    By contrast, the Georgians had significantly increased its military budget in 1930 under Spiridon Kedia's National Democrats, buying the recently developed Škoda ST vz. 28 tank and Krupp artillery guns to supplement their large volunteer National Guard - who relied on domestically produced of the Bohemian vz. 24 Rifle, while their elite forces were mostly armed with the semi-automatic self-loading ZH-32 Rifle. While the Georgian forces numbered barely 15,000 in all, they were well trained and exceedingly motivated with a strong understanding of the mountainous terrain which dominated their country. Supplementing this force were nearly 20,000 irregulars, who streamed to recruiting centers and were formed into rough militia companies, given a lighting-speed training course, armed with military surplus and placed under the command of self-appointed officers and regulars appointed to serve as NCOs. Commanding this force was the dauntless Giorgi Kvinitadze who, despite having resigned his position as Commander-in-Chief of the Georgian National Guard no less than seven times in the last decade, only to be reappointed by the next Chairman, was highly respected and had played a fundamental role in developing the National Guard into the modern military force it was by the time of the invasion. Serving as Commander of the 1st Army was Giorgi Maznaishvili, an ardent nationalist who had led the repulse of several earlier Turkish and Don attacks on the border and was considered one of the most talented commanders in Georgian employ.

    The invasion, word of which had reached the Georgian government almost the day after it was agreed to by the Duma, finally came under way after more than a month's delay on the 22nd of October, proceeding from Yekaterinodar to the coast, before following the coastal road south towards the famous holiday resort at Sochi. It was along this coastal road that the first clashes between the Georgians and Don Whites occurred, as the brazen Colonel Kaikhosro Cholokashvili led his regiment of regulars and two regiments of irregulars, numbering around 6,000 in all, in ambushing the Don advanced guard and boobytrapping the Don Whites' line of advance while taking to the mountains the moment they faced slightest sign of organised opposition. This greatly slowed the advance, allowing the rest of the army to establish a series of defensive lines, the first of which was situated at Sokhumi. It would take nearly a month for the advancing invasion force to reach these lines, during which time the entire town had been turned into a fortress, bordering on a mountainous wilderness swarming with Cholokashvili's soldiers to the north, further reinforced by another regiment of irregulars, and the Black Sea to the south.

    The dispatch of the Don Republic's Black Sea Fleet, including the massive Battleship General Alekseyev, saw the bombardment of Sokhumi, significantly tearing up the fortifications and temporarily blowing a hole in a section of the defences, but soon saw the fleet's withdrawal when a night attack on the 14th of November by Georgian torpedo boats resulted in the Cruiser Almaz's hull being breached and the Destroyers Derzky and Pylkiy being sunk in return for half a dozen flimsy torpedo boats. Already skeptical of the invasion plan, Admiral Mikhail Kedrov, Chief of the Don Admiralty, ordered the fleet to return to port in Sevastopol while Almaz was repaired, Kedrov feeling that little had been gained from this reckless project.

    The arrival of the Don invasion force at Sokhumi, where Mazniashvili was commanding, would result in the main clash of the invasion as the Don conscripts were thrown at the prepared defences while the Don cavalry waited in the rear for word of a breakthrough they could exploit. For nearly a week, the Don conscripts were pressed forward, clearing one line of defenses in the face of fierce machinegun fire and bombardment by artillery guns, before being driven back by the spirited defenders. With little chance of breakthrough apparent, General Miller turned to his tanks to force a hole, in the process initiating the first major tank engagement of the 1930s. Occurring after the initial infantry clashes, on the 4th of December, the engagement came about when the Don Whites attacked the northern end of the line, where the rocky ground resulted in shallower trenches, with their Char-D1s. While they initially ran through any opposition, losing a couple tanks to artillery bombardment, they soon found themselves faced with a Georgian armoured counter-attack. Clashing with the Georgian ST-28s, the first such clash between the two tank types, the weaknesses of the Char-D1 soon became apparent as the reasoning behind their low cost, the inferior quality of steel used to produce the tank, resulted in the Char-D1s crumbling under the guns of the ST-28s - whose own well-armoured turrets repelled more than one Char-D1 shell in the close-range engagement and ran roughshod over the old FT-17s which had been dispatched to follow the Char-D1s. Urged on by their aggressive commander, Valiko Jugheli, the ST-28s were soon trundling towards the Don Whites' positions, chasing the retreating enemy tank companies into the enemy positions. Acting swiftly, Mazniashvili ordered an all-out assault in response to Jugheli's attacks, which soon saw the entire line erupt in gun and artillery fire. Caught completely by surprise at the sudden counter-attack, the Don Whites were driven back in confusion, the conscripts soon abandoning their posts en masse as panic and exhaustion reached the boiling point. Hunted, the Don White invasion force collapsed into utter chaos, with General Miller caught up in the chaos and killed and Alexander Rodzyanko retreated with the cavalry in good order, having never come close enough to exchange fire with the enemy, while General Shteifon was captured.

    While Cholokashvili and his men continued to hound the retreating force, Tsereteli dispatched Avalishvili, a more palatable choice to deal with the Don Whites than Tsereteli himself or any of his supporters, a talented diplomat in his own right, to negotiate a resolution of the conflict. Ultimately, the Don Whites would accept war guilt and pledge a modest sum of money in reparations in early March - the Two Rivers Crisis and renewed Persian Civil War having worsened tensions in the south far beyond anything that either party could have expected at the outset of their own short-lived conflict. The Don Invasion of 1933 was also to prove critical a catalyst for change in Georgia, which soon saw the Chairman's term of office increased from one to three years while the two-term limit was maintained - it having been viewed as a necessary change to prevent a leadership vacuum from emerging during the negotiations with the Don Whites (19).

    The Invasion of Georgia was an unmitigated disaster for the Don military as a political institution, making clear the dangers of an overly independent and politically motivated military. While there had been plenty of support for the invasion within the Duma when the invasion was first proposed, the moment word spread of the disaster at Sokhumi they were quick to disavow their support. As so often in the past, victory, or at least the belief in it, had many fathers while defeat was orphaned. While General Miller, dead and thus unable to muster a defense, was portrayed as the primary architect of the entire scheme, the numerous other generals who had backed up around the plan, and the Council of Generals as a whole, struggled to avoid the stain of the disaster. With the military seeing a precipitous loss of prestige, the civilian government began to press ever more for their removal from political authority - seeking to secure full political power for the civilian government.

    Spearheading this effort was Pavel Milyukov and his Kadets, who had succeeded in avoiding blowback from the Georgian Invasion, and Pyotr Wrangel himself. Having been prevented from exercising his veto on what Wrangel had always believed was a bad bet, the Don leader sought to use the opportunity presented to him as a chance to reign in the military and solidify his hold on authority. However, as the ostensible head of government and Commander-in-Chief of the Military, Wrangel found it difficult to avoid association with the debacle, particularly when his long-time rival, Nikolai Yudenich, sought to shift the blame away from the Council of Generals. The return of the invasion force, having lost all of its artillery and tanks, down three quarters of its infantry to deaths and desertion but with an almost completely intact cavalry, in mid-January further enflamed tensions as efforts to place the blame and to find a proper scapegoat continued, with Alexander Rodzyanko in particular proving a vocal proponent of shifting responsibility onto Wrangel. This approach met with the support of Alexander's own uncle, Mikhail, and the Liberal Democrats who wanted to distance themselves from the decision, weaken the authority of Wrangel and the Council of Generals while strengthening civilian government.

    However, international events were to play their role in these efforts as well when the Persian Civil War was reignited by the Iranian invasion of Pessian Persia, supported by the Soviet government. This renewed the panicked attitudes which had consumed the Don Republic after the fall of Siberia and led to a rallying-to-the-flag effect for Wrangel, who was still acknowledged as one of the few men capable of protecting their fragile republic from the Red menace. The result was that Wrangel was able to shed most of the blame for the invasion and the Council of Generals shouldering the majority of the burden in his place. The Council of Generals had originally been established as a counter to Wrangel, but had proven itself unsuited to the task, leading the Kadets to ally with the Monarchists and National Union to abolish the institution, in a move bitterly criticised by the Conservatives who had come to rely on their alliance with the military for support following the loss of their French backing.

    It was during this period that the National Union came to view Wrangel as their chosen leader, no matter how opposed he was to their ideological position, and as the only man capable of standing up to the Soviets (20). Viewing the gradual fading of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats as an opportunity to expand their following, the Union of Monarchists would extend an invitation to Kiril Vladimirovich Romanov and his family to return to Russian soil - although without a crown for the time being. A measure prepared by the European Romanov faction of the party, it met with bitter opposition from the Siberian wing of the party and led them to extend their own invitation to Anastasia Romanova and her wards, most significantly the young claimant Nikolai Ungern-Romanov, to settle in the Don Republic. To understand the sheer rancor which had seeped into the intra-Romanov feud it is necessary to understand the sheer desperate straits in which the Siberian Romanovs had found themselves in the four years between the Fall of Siberia and their arrival in the Don Republic.

    On arrival in Paris, Anastasia had felt it necessary to maintain a cordial relationship with her cousin Kiril, meeting with him on a regular basis and joining him for various events. However, Kiril had come to interpret this as a quiet acquiescence to his claim on the Russian throne, a belief which he made no attempt to keep quiet about, loudly forcing Anastasia to parade her nephew and nieces before gawking supporters of the European Romanovs at Kiril's various luxurious parties. At the same time, the extensive web of support that the Siberian Whites had been able to develop in the United States gradually began to fall apart as American interests turned towards domestic politics and the plight of rich Russian aristocrats began to lose its charm. This in turn meant that the financing which Anastasia had relied on for years began to dry up, resulting in she and her family having to sell off various family heirlooms and move from their comfy accommodations in a mansion south of Paris and into ever more dismal housing, even as Kiril and his family continued to enjoy a lavish lifestyle, hosted by half the nobility of Europe. The outer circle of Siberian supporters also began to slowly desert the cause, although both Alexander Kutepov and Boris Savinkov remained loyal.

    The worst came when Anastasia's home was burgled and several important heirlooms, not least of which included one of her mother's diadems, disappeared, only for the diadem to reappear atop the head of Kiril's eldest daughter, Grand Duchess Maria at a subsequent function. This event, occurring in early 1932, was the final straw and led to Anastasia publicly accusing Kiril of usurpation, characterizing him as a robber of children and women, with neither the honor nor capability necessary to accomplish what must be done to restore their family to their rightful throne. From then on, the relationship between the remaining Siberian Romanov supporters and those of the European Romanovs went from sour to openly hostile - at times even turning to violence, as occurred when Prince Boris Vasilchikov, a particularly odious and vocal supporter of Kiril who had insulted and made advances upon Anastasia on more than one occasion, was gunned down on his doorstep by unidentified masked men in late 1932.

    With the ongoing political chaos and strife in France, Anastasia decided it would be better and safer to move to Germany with her supporters, where the European Romanovs had less of a following, before the invitation from the Union of Monarchists arrived in April of 1933. While Anastasia and her supporters would weigh the offer closely, they eventually decided that if they surrendered such an advantage to the European Romanovs, their cause would be dead in the water. Thus, finally, after more than five years in exile, Anastasia Romanova returned to Russian soil accompanied by her close supporters and wards on the 22nd of June 1933 - a week after Kiril, his supporters and family themselves arrived in Rostov (21).

    The Georgian Invasion was very much a double-sided event which not only allowed for the consolidation and stabilisation of the Don Republic under Wrangel and a fully civilian government, but also threw left the military feeling distanced and disenchanted with the current regime, many coming to see Wrangel as having betrayed his subordinates for power just as the mainstream parties were losing their grip on power in favour of their more radical counterparts. Had elections been held then and there, the reverberations would have been awesome, but the lack of scheduled elections prior to 1936 would allow the mainstream parties to maintain their grip on power in the near-term. While the National Union remained somewhat of a fringe movement, their platform leaving many unclear as to what exactly would change from the status quo due to their support of Wrangel, the Young Russians experienced another trajectory entirely.

    As the Young Russians increasingly shifted their message from a vague call for the reunification of Russia to support for a restoration of Russia to its proper role as a global superpower through peaceful unification with the Soviet Republic rather than continuing the travesty of the Don Republic - which just left Russia open to exploitation by aristocrats, capitalists and foreign interests, the party experienced a precipitous increase in support. While the movement had gained a moderate following in the immediate aftermath of the Siberian Conquest, eventually seeing the rise of their leader, Alexander Lvovich Kazembek, to national prominence, it would be the Georgian Invasion and its aftermath which allowed them to truly take off. An admirer of Trotsky, Kazembek believed that the current status quo was intolerable, a plot on the part of imperialist powers in the west to keep down Russia, and while he disagreed with the Communist Party's atheistic outlook and dismissal of traditional values and institutions, believing that these mistakes on the part of the Communists, he felt that these differences could be resolved once reunification was achieved. While support for the movement lost pace as the threat of the Soviet Republic retreated from public discourse, it still experienced a steady increase in support as the international prestige of the Soviet Republic rose, Proletkult became a ubiquitous part of pop culture and living conditions in the Soviet Republic continued to improve. Finally, the failure of the Georgian Invasion and the Iranian Unification during 1934 saw the party experience immense growth, seeing an immense increase in membership which left it the second largest political party in the Don.

    The single largest political party in the Don Republic had, by the middle of 1934, become the Union of Monarchists. With trust in the political mainstream, to say nothing of the military establishment and to some degree Wrangel himself, who was associated by Monarchists to both of these failing elements of the state, at a nadir there was a lot to be liked in the message of the Monarchists. Building on a platform of Integralism in Orthodox Monarchical guise, the Monarchists were able to point to the successes of such regimes in Iberia as proof of concept when questioned on their ideological model. However, while the Young Russians and National Union were relatively coherent and unified radical parties, there was a fundamental divide within the Union Monarchists between support for the Siberian and European Romanovs which the arrival of both claimants and their respective émigré factions only heightened. While the Siberian Romanovs had a good deal of respect for their demonstrated leadership in Siberia, the majority of the Don Monarchists felt that leadership by an older, experienced man, such as Grand Duke Kiril Vladimirovich, would be more beneficial for the Don Republic, not only claiming that young Nikolai was the result of a morganatic marriage and thus unsuited to rule as stated in the Romanov family laws, while also reiterating that women of the family could not inherit the throne, thus doubly disowning the young Nikolai.

    These clashes had been heated, but cordial, in the years before the two rival claimants arrived in the Don, but thereafter it turned deadly with astounding speed. The murder of Prince Vasilchikov had not been forgotten, and was soon avenged when Prince Roman Petrovich, of the Nikolayevich Romanovs, and the only member of Anastasia's extended family she remained on cordial terms with, was attacked and grievously wounded, loosing his left eye, to a group of masked men who were only kept from killing their target by Roman firing his service revolver into his attackers, killing two of them while sending the others running. This sudden outbreak of violence shook the Union of Monarchists, with the leader of the Siberians, the Orthodox priest Georges Florovsky, condemning any use of violence to resolve their intractable problem. However, while Florovsky might have been opposed to violence, few of the recent arrivals had the same compunctions or reservations.

    Brawls between supporters of rival factions were common, with more than a dozen killed in these clashes in the span between July and September, while more targeted bombings and assassinations, which Savinkov, who had originally made his name as a terrorist, excelled at, hit the Europeans. The European Romanovs headquarters were set ablaze during a public meeting in late September, killing two dozen attendees and leaving Kirl's brother Boris with massive burns which incapacitated the prince - leaving him heavily dependent upon a constant supply of opiates and little use to his brother's cause as much other than a martyr. In retaliation, a group of Siberians, one of whom was believed to be responsible for the fire, while out on the town, found themselves abducted and executed by an illicit firing squad for "Crimes Against Mother Russia and Its True Tsar" before being dumped in front of the Siberian headquarters with those words burned into their bodies.

    With the bloodshed rapidly escalating, Wrangel saw no choice but to crack down, having soldiers ransack the homes of the factional leaders while taking them and their major supporters temporarily into custody. While no proof of Siberian actions were uncovered, the home of one of Kiril's most fervent supporters, Dimitri Alexandrovich Obolensky - who had been kept from penury solely by Kiril's generosity, included documents detailing payments to the murderous kidnappers. While Wrangel was well aware of the involvement of both sides, he was unable to punish the Siberians without proof and as such could only condemn the European faction for their actions while placing Obolensky under arrest before releasing the rest of those taken into custody.

    However, as Kiril slowly made his way down the stairs of the Rostov Capitol, his steps hesitant due to injuries sustained fighting the Japanese in 1905, he found himself face to face with a young man, barely more than a teen, who raised a pistol and fired three bullets into his stomach and groin. The young man was swiftly taken into custody and interrogated, where it was determined that the man in question was deeply disturbed and had attacked the Grand Duke following the instructions of voices in his head telling him that it would endear him to his idol, the Princess Anastasia, who he had become besotted after glimpsing her arriving at the Rostov Docks. Meanwhile, Kiril lay dying, his successor a seventeen year old Vladimir Kirilovich. The two claimants were now a twelve-year old boy completely controlled by his fearsome aunt and a young and rebellious seventeen year old - a far more difficult choice than had been presented to the Monarchists previously.

    By this time the Trotskyite Affair had come to an end the Young Russians had seen a sudden and dramatic collapse in their support, their prior vocal approval of Trotsky standing in sharp contrast to their sudden subsequent condemnation of the Trotskyites and their cause. This led many to depart the party, finding an equally impressive movement to support in the Siberians, who had emerged as the predominant faction within the Monarchists in the months after Kiril's murder, the bloody-minded amorality of Savinkov and fearsome charisma of Anastasia shocking their opponents into terrified disorder while the rapid ascent of Kutepov to a position of high command in the military created a new avenue of support for the Siberians, the disenfranchised and marginalised military (22).

    Footnotes:
    (17) This Ukrainian cultural movement is actually known as the Executed Renaissance IOTL, because the vast majority of the participants in the movement ended up butchered by the Soviets when they turned against their former Ukrainization policy around 1930 - which was soon followed by the Holodomor and Great Purge. With neither of those events happening, this cultural movement is allowed to continue developing, and is even encouraged to a certain extent by the government in Rostov. The complex political situation in the Don, which is actually a good deal more complicated than what is mentioned here due to me leaving out the various factions within the Council of Generals and the various smaller parties ( there are probably about twenty of them in all), spanning just about the entire political spectrum except for the far-left, which is outlawed.

    (18) So I realised that I had forgotten about Georgia being an independent state entirely after it withdrew from the post-Great War/Russian Civil War shit show, so we are now getting a proper rundown on the situation. Georgia is in a particularly precarious position, but is able to make the most of its neighbours distractions to develop a strong parliamentary democracy. While there was considerable minority unrest early in the republic's lifespan by the time the Treaty of Tsarskoye Selo was being signed that had mostly ended. From everything I have read, Georgia actually seems like one of the places which would have done the best if just allowed to run on by itself. Already at inception the Social Democrats were supportive of multi-party democracy, and did a great deal to foster it. They implemented one of the most successful land reforms in the entirety of the former Russian Empire and while they struggled with troublesome minorities, they were surprisingly good at resolving such issues. Hell the Abkhazian troubles were stopped within a year IOTL. The main weakness of the system that they formed, from my perspective, is that they limited terms of leadership to a single year and only two-year terms at the most. That simply is not enough time for someone to pass any meaningful legislation unless they have the full legislature at their beck and call, so as the multiparty government gets going it begins to really slow down the ability of the government to pass policies efficiently. A lot of the pre-1921/22 stuff is drawn from OTL, although with attention payed to adapt to TTL, but thereafter it is mainly my conjecture.

    (19) I am by no means an expert in the various weapons systems, so if anything doesn't make sense please let me know. In this case the ST-28 is an alternate earlier version of the Czech V-8-H tank. It is a struggle to figure out what weapons development would look like ITTL given the changes in priority which result from the German Empire being a major force in European affairs as contrasted with the black hole that was the Weimar Republic, but I would expect more research and investment to have occurred during the 1920s and early 30s than IOTL and different priorities for how that money is spent. The Georgians rely heavily on the Bohemian arms industry, which is as major a player as IOTL, if not more so. The whole Don Invasion ends up a costly debacle which sends politics in the polity into overdrive, as will be the focus of the coming sections. It is worth noting that the Don Invasion coincides with the height of the South Mesopotamia Famine, while the negotiations to settle the conflict occur during the height of the Two Rivers Crisis, resulting in the entire conflict becoming something of a sideshow, barely covered in international papers and un-noticed by all but the participants, their major rivals and the militaries who had advisors present. The complete failure of the Char-D1 to stand up to the ST-28 makes a major impression and results in a lot of soul searching in French ranks, while the Bohemian arms industry sees a significantly increased interest in their various projects by the German military. Finally, the conflict also serves as the spur needed to extend their terms, not quite to the ordinarily adopted four-years, but rather to a three-year cycle which will be synced to their elections after the next one, to be held in February of 1934.

    (20) The main thing to take from all this infighting is that Wrangel emerges in a strengthened position, the Council of Generals is abolished, and the military in general sees a precipitous loss of legitimacy and support as a political institution. Wrangel remains one of the only figures able to maintain unity in the Don Republic. While Wrangel is far from aligned with the ideology of the National Union - he is pretty apolitical, more just wanting to ensure stability than having any specific ideological goal, that does not mean that he might not turn towards them for backing should he end up in a more precarious situation.

    (21) Now the situation in the Don takes a rather monarchical turn, as both major contenders to the Russian throne return to the Don near simultaneously. These years have not been easy for Anastasia, who not only finds herself forced to serve as single mother to three orphaned children while struggling to lead an international political movement in decline. Repeated humiliation and desperation finally pushes them to open hostility, kicked off by the murder of a prominent supporter of the European Romanovs. He will not be the last man to die in the feud that follows.

    (22) What secures victory for the Siberians is that while the European Romanovs have been living relatively peaceful lives in Europe, the Siberians have been enmeshed in a constant state of struggle which leaves them prone to very quickly resort to incredible violence. Not only a tendency towards violence, but an actual talent for it given Savinkov and many of his oldest supporters were once anti-Romanov terrorists. While the Europeans try to retaliate, they are far less skilled at selecting vulnerable targets and are much more driven by emotions - where the Siberians view terror tactics as simply a tactic to secure control of the Monarchists. The murder of Kiril was not planned by the Siberians, although Savinkov had something planned to get rid of him, but it plays well into their hands when the Trotskyite Affair blows up the Young Russians, allowing the Siberians to sweep in and recruit heavily amongst those who liked Trotsky's militancy and view his fall from power as a travesty. The Young Russians were able to secure a lot of young, impressionable men to their cause because of the appeal of Trotsky's aggressive and militant revolutionary stance, and when the Young Russians turn on Trotsky on a dime they are left disenchanted. The Young Russians turn on Trotsky precisely because continued support would jeopardize their greatest ambition - reunification with the Soviet Republic. We leave off with a reminder that in the Don Republic, the military is very much an active part of the national political establishment, even when they are ostensibly ejected from it.

    End Note:

    This is continued in the next message - just turned out that this half of the update is too long to post in one go.
     
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    Update Thirty-Three (Pt. 3): A Theory of Great Men
  • A Theory of Great Men

    554px-Emperor_Showa.jpg

    Emperor Genka (元化) at his Enthronement Ceremony

    The Phoenix and The Dragon​

    For Japan, the years between the 1928 election and Emperor Taisho's death in 1932 were notable for their continuation of many pre-existing tendencies of the preceding years, if with an increasingly harsh edge. As Crown Prince Yasuhito came into his own, his radical position, far-distant from the political mainstream, became an ever more worrying element in governmental decision-making. Under Taisho, the Chrysanthemum Throne had been as close to a non-entity as could be imagined, the powerful but reserved Meiji giving way to mentally challenged, sickly and eventually incapacitated Taisho, but Yasuhito promised to be an entirely different beast from either his father or grandfather. Assured of his family's divine inheritance and unwilling to allow himself to be sidelined by weak and feckless politicians, Yasuhito found himself enamored by reports of integralist ideologies and the central role which they attributed to the ruler. This, combined with his close relationship to the Imperial Japanese Army, presented sufficient of a threat to the political establishment that both of the two major parties, the Rikken Seiyukai and Rikken Minseito, were able to agree on limiting imperial power as far as possible before the future emperor could enact his ambitious plans.

    However, while various politicians in either party were open to placing constraints on imperial power, the same could not be said of Prime Minister Yamamoto Gonbee, who viewed any such efforts as an affront to the imperial house and an assault upon the very fabric of what made them Japanese. A man of the elder generation and in many ways a conservative by nature, Yamamoto had grown up under the auspices of Emperor Meiji and the Genro, particularly looking up to the sole surviving Genro Prince Kinmochi Saionji, the most liberal of all the Genro and a man utterly detested by the military for his efforts to diminish their political powers at every step, and as such he maintained a feeling of awe and majesty towards the imperial office which he, amongst many others, felt was lacking in the current political leadership who pushed ever onward towards greater westernization and democratization while abandoning the traditions and practices which made Japan great. Thus, while Yamamoto retained his leadership of parliament and over Rikken Minseito, no such efforts to formally limit imperial power found themselves proposed.

    However, while political matters remained relatively stable under the guidance and leadership of Prime Minister Yamamoto, this period was to see considerable growth in the radical influences in the military. The appointment and leadership of Hajime Sugiyama as Minister of War had left the radical Kokunhosha and their affiliates in the Army under the leadership of Araki Sadao rather peeved, allowing the moderate faction of the military to stand tall for the time being. However, the quest for an increasingly independent and activist army remained strong, seeking to exert power where it could beneath the notice of Yamamoto and the navy, particularly under the joint influence of Yasuhito and Araki Sadao. The key focal points of these efforts were to prove the various Japanese colonies, particularly in Chosun, Kwangtung and Taiwan, where the large military garrisons and distance from the home islands allowed the extremists to act more independently, undermining the moderates in the process while strengthening Yasuhito's base of power.

    These efforts were to lead to considerable tensions and clashes between factions of the military, particularly in the Kwangtung Garrison which saw a near-constant reshuffling of the military leadership while the soldiery themselves remained relatively constant and ever further distanced from the ideological struggles at the top, increasingly finding the ideology espoused by Kita Ikki and Nippon Kyosanto, of a powerful and militant but equal Japan, of great interest. Within a four-year span, the Kwangtung Garrison saw nearly a dozen different commanders, some of which repeated tenures, such as the moderate Hishikari Takashi and the radical Honjo Shigeru, while others barely set foot inside the garrison headquarters before being replaced, as happened with Kawashima Yoshiyuki who was replaced two days after arriving in Kwangtung. A similar level of rotation would occur in Okinawa and Taiwan, but in Chosun proper, the conflict flickered out relatively swiftly when the powerful long-time Governor General Saito Makoto secured the appointment of the conscientious moderate General Muto Nobuyoshi as commander of the Japanese Imperial Army in Chosun.

    There was no end in sight for this conflict when 1932 rolled around and Yasuhito's youngest brother, Prince Takahito, entered the Imperial Japanese Army Academy. The Imperial Japanese Army Academy was not only the alma mater of Takahito's brothers and many of his uncles, it was also the preeminent military academy of the army, an indication that Yasuhito hoped for his favorite brother to follow him in supporting the radical militarist and integralist ideology with which he hoped to govern, rather than the feeble democratic tendencies of the navy which he feared their middle brother Nobuhito might have been influenced by. Two years prior, Yasuhito had secured his position as heir to the throne by marrying into the senior-most cadet branch of the Imperial family, the Fushimi-no-miya - marrying the daughter of Prince Fushimi Hiroyasu, Princess Atsuko, while betrothing his brother Takahito to Tokugawa Kikuko, a paternal granddaughter of the last Tukogawa Shogun and a maternal granddaughter of the Arisugawa-no-miya collateral branch of the Imperial Family. Princess Kikuko, as she was to be known after the pair's marriage in 1934, was a beautiful but frightfully modern woman who not only held strong political opinions but also engaged in considerable philanthropic efforts, particularly on the topic of cancer which had killed her mother. The pair of Princess Kikuko and Takahito were to hit it off well with each other, enjoying a strong rapport and willingness to work together (23).

    Emperor Taisho would breathe his last on the 18th of March 1932 at the age of 52, paving the way for his son and heir Yasuhito to receive the succession. This marked the end of the Taisho Era and the beginning of the Genka (元化) Era, translating roughly as Restoration to the Origin, and was followed two months later by the various ascension ceremonies, involving Genka's enthronement and handing over of the Three Sacred Treasures which made up the Japanese Imperial Regalia. Genka's ascension was to have immediate consequences in both foreign and domestic affairs. In his initial meetings with Chinese diplomats, Genka proved himself as jingoistic as many had feared, demanding that the diplomats do full obeisance, as though they were his subjects, and loudly questioned the growing hostility of the Chinese towards Japanese investors and entrepreneurs in China, specifically citing attacks on Japanese tax farmers in the south of China, and wondering whether or not the Fengtian government had restored order to China as they claimed. Deeply offended, this marked the beginning of a gradual decline in Sino-Japanese foreign relations which were further worsened by various incidents between Japanese and Chinese soldiers along the Kwangtung and Chosun borders to North-Eastern China.

    On the domestic plane, Genka proved a vocal supporter of militarist and authoritarian ideologues, promoting such figures to a variety of positions in the Imperial Household when his efforts to put them into positions of ministerial power floundered in the face of Prime Minister Yamamoto's opposition. Notably, Genka proved exceedingly reluctant to clash openly with the great elder statesman, an attitude matched by Yamamoto, whose continued reverence of the Imperial House left him unwilling to go against direct imperial directives, with the result that the political status quo was ostensibly maintained. However, beneath the surface, tensions rose at an ever increasing pace, particularly within the political establishment. Loyalty to the Emperor became a defining issue of this growing split as those who, while either agreeing or disagreeing with the Imperial position, maintained their support for the Chrysanthemum Throne regardless of the situation clashed with those who felt that the development of a proper democratic society under civilian rule was the single most important issue, even if it broke with the capricious wishes and demands of the new young emperor.

    As ruler, Genka invited men like Araki Sadao, Masaki Jinzaburo, Tojo Hideki, Yanagawa Heisuke and Obata Hideyoshi to meet with him and each other to discuss matters military and political, with much cursing of the Navy, which Genka maintained an ever greater dislike of as their alliance with the civilian parties grew more entrenched. In a bid to challenge the unity of the civilian leadership, Genka began personally sponsoring the development of a political party to overturn the dominance of the political elites. This was what led to the formation of the Kokumin Domei, the National Citizens' Alliance, incorporating the Kokunhosha and various far-right organizations and parties under the ostensible leadership of the civilian Hiranuma Kiichiro, Nakano Seigo, Okawa Sumei and Kazami Akira - although in reality the party was led by a civilian-military council answering directly to Emperor Genka. This party, with the overt backing of Emperor Genka, was able to swiftly build a sizable following, particularly in the rural populace of southern Japan, particularly Kyushu and Shikoku, on a platform of Japanese Integralism and State Shintoism which demanded that the Emperor take on ruling powers from the weak, disorganised and westernised political elites in order to bring Japan into a new golden age.

    However, even as Emperor Genka was pressing forward in a bid to strengthen the Imperial Family and the Chrysanthemum Throne, his younger brother Takahito was experiencing an entirely new world of exciting ideas and ideologies. At the heart of the matter lay the gradually growing support for Kita Ikki's Communist ideology within cadet circles at the Imperial Japanese Army Academy over the half-decade preceding Takahito's arrival at the Academy. While the Academy's professors largely fell into one of the various ultra-right-wing camps of the military, the student body had largely become enamoured with Japanese Communism, which maintained much of the bombastic militarism and national pride which characterised the right-wing, but merged it with a clear call for revolutionary action for the betterment of all the oppressed peoples of Japan, Asia and the World.

    Takahito thus entered into what might well have been an exceedingly hostile environment had it not been for the guidance of his Dorm Intendant, Lieutenant Isobe Asaichi. Isobe had been one of the early supporters of Kita's Communism, emerging as a cadet leader prior to his graduation in 1928 and becoming one of the most prominent young Communist officers in the ranks. Notably, the military leadership largely failed to control or combat the spread of communist affiliations amongst the cadets and young officers, many of the upper-level officers not even believing Communism to be an ideology military men would be willing to associate themselves with. Under Isobe's guidance, Takahito was introduced to an entirely new understanding of the world, securing the writings of Kita Ikki, Trotsky, Bukharin, Yamakawa and Fukumoto from his fellow cadets, as magazines, leaflets and books made the rounds within the various cadet dorms. Deeply moved and inspired by what he read, Takahito found himself swiftly brought into Communist circles during his first two years as a cadet, slowly growing into a leader amongst the cadets and young officers while proving that he held an adept mind for military affairs as much as communist ideology by scoring well on his various exams.

    Unknowing of the changing ideological following within the Academy, Emperor Genka reacted with great happiness to reports of his brother's popularity and actively set out plans to bring Takahito into his inner circle - inviting him to meetings of the Kokumin Domei leadership and allowed him to read correspondence with Genka's supporters in the military. While Takahito remained close with his brother, he grew increasingly troubled by the plans his brother expounded upon at length and the worryingly sanguine attitudes held by many of his brother's supporters towards those who opposed them (24).

    The year and a half leading up to Prime Minister Yamamoto Gonbee's retirement in late 1935 was to prove of considerable importance to the development of Japan, and particularly Japanese Communism. With the Trotskyite Affair, the budding alliance between Nippon Kyosanto and the Soviet Communist Party through the Third International collapsed suddenly. The first half of the 1930s had seen Nippon Kyosanto go through a series of tumultuous crises and conflicts which were to leave the party greatly changed as the 1936 elections came under way. At the heart of the issue lay Kita Ikki's idolisation of Trotsky and the resultant use of Trotskyite ideology as a key building block for the Kyosanto party platform. It had not been long since the party merged, and while Yamakawa Hitoshi as leader of the party had gotten used to the peculiarities of his chief ideologue, Fukumoto Kazou and Nosaka Sanzo were not as forgiving.

    Fukumoto had spent a good deal of time in Moscow in the years prior to Trotsky's entry into the Soviet government, and had been deeply influenced by the Muscovite emphasis on collective decision-making, acceptance towards differences within leftist ideology and incorporation of the best parts of disparate leftist ideologies to produce a common platform. As such, he found the idea of handing over ideological concerns to someone like Kita, whose ideological beliefs broke harshly against orthodox Marxism as practiced by Nosaka and many other thinkers in the party or other more unorthodox supporters, rather than developing the ideological basis of the party collectively a major issue and consistently spoke up about the matter. Kita's militarism in particular struck Fukumoto and his supporters as deeply troubling and led to constant clashes between the two at party meetings, with Fukumoto becoming an increasingly ardent anti-Trotskyite, most significantly demonstrated when he spoke out against entering the Third International in several Central Committee meetings on the topic. While Yamakawa was able to maintain the peace within the party until 1934, the tumultuous occurrences in Russia in that year were to cause considerable troubles as the ardent idolisation of Trotsky on the part of many in the party suddenly found itself marred by the great man's trial and execution.

    The arrival of Trotskyite exiles was to be a mixed blessing in this regard, as they on one hand turned a previously manageable internal struggle into a major crisis for the party. The Red Émigrés brought with them immense capabilities, know-how and experience in everything from military command and managing great bureaucracies to talented industrial developers and great communist ideologues, but by accepting the Red émigrés Nippon Kyosanto would be breaking openly with the Soviet Communists. Disagreement over what path to take, and fraying personal relationships, were to lead to crisis in the party as Fukumoto and Nosaka directly demanded that the party align firmly with the Soviet line and drive the Trotskyites out in October of 1934. This was vocally opposed by Kita Ikki, who accused the pair of being little better than Russian stooges, completely subservient to foreign ideologues, a claim which was soon pointed out as being rather hypocritical by Fukumoto considering Kita's ardent support of the Trotskyite cause up to recently.

    Back and forth the party's central committee went, with Yamakawa stuck firmly in the middle as exacerbated mediator between the two groups. Ultimately, Yamakawa was able to force them to order and, after ordering the remainder of the meeting's minutes be conducted under the party's secrecy protocols, proposed a solution which left neither side particularly happy but resolved the tensions for the time being. According to Yamakawa, it would be best for Nippon Kyosanto to learn all that they could from the exiles before deciding what to do further, which was why they soon engulfed the new arrivals in a horde of aides, service staff and more who not only served the émigrés on hand and foot, but also extracted all the knowledge they could from the Russians. In this way the party was able to amass a considerable repository of knowledge on how to best govern a revolutionary state, the major pitfalls experienced by the Trotskyite leadership and the main challenges that they must resolve to avoid factional infighting as had eventually come to engulf the Soviet state.

    However, this overly friendly treatment was to stoke the ambitions of some of these émigrés, even as some of their compatriots left for other states where they might find themselves welcomed - Mexico, the Central American Republic, France, Germany and Italy proving the most favored places for this group secondary to settle in. Mikhail Kalinin had largely been relegated to the role of non-entity for much of the past decade, as Trotsky first used him as a ceremonial president of the Yekaterinburg Reds and later as little better than a yes-man in Moscow, but as one of the senior-most Trotskyites to make it out of Russia he was swift to exploit the opportunity to push for greater influence for himself. In this matter, his greatest rival would prove to be the cold-hearted if competent Lazar Kaganovich, who had held the most prominence of the survivors while Trotsky remained alive. The clash between these two, however, would gradually turn against Kaganovich, who eventually picked up stakes and departed for Mexico while leaving his protégé Nikita Khrushchev behind to represent his interests in Japan. Having secured power over the Red émigrés in Japan, Kalinin now made moves which he hoped would allow him to seat himself as the uncrowned lord of Nippon Kyosanto - whose leadership had already proven themselves utterly subservient to him and his fellow Trotskyites.

    Thus, in March of 1935 Kalinin began issuing ever greater demands of his hosts, claiming the right to sit in on their Central Committee meetings and jockeying for power and authority. This was to prove the final straw for Yamakawa and the rest of the leadership, even Kita giving in after witnessing Kalinin's arrogance, and led to them finally moving to assert their dominance over the émigré population. Kalinin disappeared a week after this decision was taken, only for him to turn up on the doorstep of the Vladivostok GPU offices courtesy of Nippon Kyosanto, an act which was to lay to rest much of the tension between the two Communist parties. This was followed by a sharp reduction in support for the various émigrés, as those with useful knowledge or international networks were allowed to remain as guests of the party while the rest saw their support cut entirely and were threatened with Kalinin's fate, Kalinin having been sentenced to a decade of hard labor after a swift trial. This resulted in yet another wave of emigrations, as those discarded by Nippon Kyosanto were forced to leave the country, following their fellows to other countries sympathetic to their cause. Thus, by the time Prime Minister Yamamoto Gonbee resigned in late 1935, Nippon Kyosanto stood ready to deal with whatever may come next (25).

    China was to see a staggered development over the course of the last years of the 1920s and the first half of the 1930s, as in the north the Fengtian government dramatically brought the region under firm government control in a bare handful of years, while in the south a series of constant clashes occurred as government power gradually asserted itself, often in the form of non-state actors to begin with, but with increasingly forceful government authority as time went on. As the mop-up campaign for the Jiangning Rebellion was petering out, a drought in north-western China firmly drew the attention of the Fengtian government. While the region was relatively sparsely populated compared to the coastal provinces, there were nevertheless somewhere approaching fifty million people facing starvation conditions if no action was taken.

    Viewing this as an opportunity to secure their control over the region, Zhang Zuolin appointed his son, Zhang Xueliang, to oversee relief efforts alongside the long-time Fengtian courtier Wang Yongjiang who had catapulted Manchuria from an unimportant frontier region into the most prosperous part of China in less than a decade. They began a highly rationalized campaign, using veteran Fengtian soldiers on anti-banditry campaigns in conjunction with an ambitious relief effort using jury-rigged repairs to the Great Canal to ship foodstuff from the prosperous Yangtze Valley north to the hardest hit areas along the upper Yellow River. This colossal feat of logistics, which was responsible for limiting deaths to the tens of thousands rather than tens of millions as had originally been feared, was to inspire great loyalty in the region for the Fengtian regime in general and Zhang Xueliang in particular while ingraining in the young marshal an awe of the infrastructural feats of his forebearers, and making him a constant supporter of grand infrastructural works, most prominently an ambitious plan to rebuild the Grand Canal as a modern industrial-scale infrastructure project capable of competing with any of the feats of industry undertaken by the Western powers.

    This Grand Canal project was to become part of a much grander endeavor, as the Fengtian government adopted a scheme meant to modernise the ancient heartland of China, the Central Plains. In a vast triangle stretching from Shanghai in the south to Xi'an in the west and Beijing in the north, the Fengtian government decided to begin a major program of economic development, modernisation and industrialisation. To head this programme, Zuolin appointed Wu Peifu while charging Liang Shuming, who had already begun a private campaign of Rural Reconstruction, with leading rural development in this Central Plains Triangle, and appointed the noted scholar Hu Shih, who had previously proved influential in the May 12th Movement, to lead the cultural elements of the plan while Pan Fu, a talented administrator and financial mind with close ties to Zhang Xueliang, was given charge of managing the programme's urban projects. This plan was an immense investment by the Fengtian government, and was to consume a great deal of Fengtian resources for the majority of the 1930s, but in the process the region would undergo an unprecedented modernisation and industrialisation, with the cities of the Wei River and Lower Yellow River blooming into major hubs of industrial activity, outstripping all other regions of China with the possible exception of Manchuria in the process.

    Zuolin remained an active political power, but increasingly relied on his brilliant son Xueliang whose handling of Manchurian affairs had proven incredibly successful. A man from a poor background and without much in the way of a formal education, Zuolin had ensured that his son had all the preparation and knowledge he would need to support him as the Fengtian government increasingly turned away from military affairs and towards matters of governance. As for Zhang Xueliang, he was a bit of an odd character. Thrown into a position of leadership at an incredibly young age, he had demonstrated a surprising degree of mental acuity and flexibility, able to learn statecraft, economics and administration alongside martial sciences and much else while still maintaining a startlingly complicated social life. A man of considerable charisma, Xueliang had befriended people as vastly different as Wu Peifu and Zhang Zongchang, engaging in scholarly discussions with the former while enjoying wild drug-fuelled parties with the latter, although he was able to break free of an opium addiction with the aid of the Australian journalist William Henry Donald in 1929 in an astonishing display of willpower. His love life was not one bit less complicated, having married the beautiful, talented and gracious Yu Fengzhi at the age of 15, in 1916, before falling for his private secretary, Zhao Yidi, in 1928 who came to live alongside Fengzhi as Xueliang's mistress, living effectively in what many westerners would have considered bigamy.

    As his government duties increased, Xueliang would increasingly abandoned his wild youth and stopped participating in the grand parties held by Zhang Zongchang. Following the resolution of the North-West China Drought, Xueliang saw himself increasingly drawn into national political endeavors with his appointment to Foreign Minister in 1931. Having greatly improved his English through the aid of his mistress Zhao Yidi, who spoke fluent English and had previously tutored in the language, he was able to embark on a series of international visits to Japan and the United States, where he briefly attended one of Huey Long's anti-Klan rallies and met with the man, before continuing on to Europe. While in Europe, following meetings with the heads of government in Portugal, Spain, France, Britain and Germany, he made a number of important acquaintances, including Friedrich Ebert, Winston Churchill, Léon Blum and King Alfonso of Spain. For the next two years he worked on increasing foreign investment and improving foreign relations, before he was given charge of restoring order to South China, where events were becoming increasingly volatile (26).

    Southern China had never fully been under the control of the Fengtian government, but the Jiangning Rebellion and its aftermath had significantly improved government authority in coastal regions and the major cities of the south, while the countryside had largely remained ungoverned and ungovernable, with village communes following Jiaxing Communism proliferating within this anarchic situation. This weak governmental authority forced the Fengtian government to rely on local actors to implement policy and exercise government authority, often meeting with considerable opposition from rural villages under Jiaxing Communist influence. As anti-Communist sentiments grew hotter in governing circles, particularly after the violent collapse of relations between the Jiaxing and Shanghai Communists in 1929, calls to restore order and civil government in the south grew increasingly loud.

    It was around this time that Zhang Zuolin's long-time advisor Yang Yuting and his new compatriot, the banker H.H. Kung, brother-in-law to the disgraced Chiang Kai-shek, began to advocate in favor of turning over governance in the southern interior to local circuit and county officials while tax collection could be handed over to private actors for the best possible profit-to-investment ratio. As this programme was slowly implemented beginning in 1930 with considerable success financially, but to calamitous impact upon the government's popularity and support in the south-western provinces, where tax farmers were unleashed with reckless abandon. The lax governmental control of the south meant that this effort at tax farming, which under the best of circumstances would likely have been mired in controversy, was an immense source of corruption. Yang Yuting, who took charge of this tax collection policy in the south, was quick to sell taxing rights to just about anyone willing to pay - resulting in a swarm of bad actors buying up most of these rights. Japanese fortune hunters, Hong Kong Tongs, former warlord and bandit groups, American adventurers and a wide variety of other unsavory groups individual spent handsomely on the program, and soon began to do everything in their power to extract what wealth they could from the countryside. While the initial tax collection efforts remained relatively peaceful, it was not long before abuse and violence came to predominate. As private tax farmers, often acting as little better than bandit lords, engaged in the plundering of taxes and more, the villagers began to band together to resist the tax farmers.

    Finally, in June of 1931, matters reached a boiling point when a group of notorious Japanese tax farmers swept through a county in northern Guangxi Province, only to find themselves met at the gates of a village by armed villagers and threats of violence should they continue. Angered, the tax farmers retreated for a couple days in order to hire gangs of ex-bandits and purchase arms from some local arms depots, which constituted part a network of armouries across the south containing the massive number of arms confiscated in the aftermath of the Jiangning Rebellion, before returning with incredible violence. The village was stormed, the guards murdered out of hand while the rest of the populace was given over to what was effectively a sack, women were raped, men and children beaten into submission or butchered while anything worth the slightest bit of money was plundered. After a night and day of horrors, the village was left a burning ruin and the survivors of its traumatized populace sent fleeing for safety to the neighboring villages. Word of these horrors spread with incredible haste, soon reaching the Jiaxing leadership who mustered up a force of local militias, armed with weapons hidden away during the confiscations, and laid in ambush of the marauding tax force. Finally, three days later the tax force fell into ambush and was killed, almost to the last man, while the riches and arms they had with them were spirited away by the Communists.

    When word reached Beijing that a tax farming company had been ambushed and butchered, word of the preceding events remaining local and the attackers assumed to be simple bandits, the Japanese embassy was swift to issue protests and demand action be taken to provide restitution for the lost Japanese lives. Yang Yuting, ever a pro-Japanese advocate, was swift to approve of the matter, permitting the dispatch of a local military company to hunt down the bandits, which failed to find the bandits and met with considerable hostility from the local populace, and Japanese investigators who soon began claiming that the entire matter was due to the presence of Communist rebels rather than ordinary bandits. As word that a tax farming company had been butchered spread amongst their compatriots, the tax farmers grew increasingly fearful and hostile towards the population they were fleecing.

    Companies became increasingly armed, drawing heavily on local armories for cheap state-approved arms, yet another initiative on the part of Yang to improve the effectiveness of his policy. As the year continued, villages and tax farmers grew increasingly heavily armed and their clashes more violent. Village communes in the region started cooperating, finding that the Jiaxing Communists were amongst those best suited for such efforts of coordination. Iterant Communist teachers, wandering from village to village and spending a week or so in any one place to teach the local children and adults basic literacy, agricultural studies and communist ideology proved particularly influential, with men such as Mao Zedong, Cai Hesen and He Shuheng rising to widespread fame in the region on this basis while men like Lin Biao, Zhou Enlai and He Long worked hard to develop village defense forces and, under Zhou Enlai, a rapid response force to deal with crises. As 1931 came to an end, and 1932 dawned, spillover from the conflict in Indochina also served to galvanize the peasant movement in the south, resulting in a series of open clashes with tax farmers, the largest of which saw a tax collection force of nearly 200 surrounded and killed by local self-defense forces and the heavily armed rapid response force in late February 1932 (27).

    The outbreak of open resistance to the government, as the February attacks were to be acknowledged, led Yang Yuting to ask for, and receive access to, significant military resources to snuff out what he characterised as banditry to Zhang Zuolin. Having received permission, Yang ordered the military in Southern China to dispatch pacification forces to bring an end to the region's intransigence. It was at this point the factionalism within the Army in Southern China came into play, for there were there were two major military leaders in the region competing with each other for Fengtian favor, on one hand there was the uncouth and infamous Dogmeat General Zhang Zongchang of Shanghai fame and a close associate of Zhang Xueliang, while on the other was Chu Yupu, a one-time subordinate of Zhang Zongchang's who had since swapped allegiances, first to the services of the Zhili Clique, before following Wu Peifu into the Fengtian Clique, which Zhang Zongchang had joined in turn soon after, a fact which Zhang Zongcheng had never forgiven.

    Yang Yuting's promised campaign stood as a chance for Chu Yupu to secure the personal prestige and glory he had been seeking to make him Zhang Zongchang's equal, while the latter hoped to use the task as a way to finally crush his turncoat former subordinate in Guangzhou. Ultimately, it came to down to speed - for Chu Yupu was able to dispatch his lieutenant Liu Zhennian and a considerable supporting force to deal with the bandits before Zongchang could even select a subordinate for the duty. Liu Zhennian proved himself an imminently corrupt figure with little in the way of moral compunctions about the actions of the Tax Farmers, as long as he got his cut of their proceeds. The result was to turn 1932 into one of the bloodiest years in the recent history of southern China, which, considering the anarchy of the Warlord Era, was quite the feat. Tax farmers began the widespread use of torture and punitive punishments for failure to pay, up to and including a variety of mutilations. However, when the village communes sought to fight back they would find themselves the target of vicious reprisals by government soldiery, many of whom themselves began to serve as enforcers for tax farmers while off duty, and increasingly also while on duty. With little interest in the details of how the private tax farmers went about their business, Yang Yuting remained quiet even as the tax farmers began fabricating an ever increasing wealth of taxes and tariffs, in effect beginning a campaign of vicious government-backed banditry across the region, which took on an ever more rapacious scale.

    As conditions turned increasingly intolerable, the scattered armed resistance turned into an organised guerilla war as Communist-led units launched attacks on government institutions at local, county, circuit and even on rare occasions provincial levels, increasingly mirroring their fellows in Indochina. Village leaders were by and large part of the resistance, but above this level the officials proved highly corrupt and more often than complicit in the government's actions, making them preferred targets for retaliation. Government offices were stormed, with particularly odious local leaders and landlords murdered after extrajudicial trials, when they weren't just killed out of hand by the enraged mobs. The network of local armouries in the region soon became targets as well, with a daring raid led by Zhang Guotao in August of 1932 on one such armory securing nearly 30,000 rifles and ammunition to spare, with similar raids occurring in September and November, such that by the end of the year the resistance had turned into an out-and-out insurgency against Liu Zhennian and the Tax Farmers.

    The sudden influx of a massive number of Indochinese rebels, fleeing across the border from a French troop surge, was to truly transform the conflict in South-West China from one on the margins of Fengtian planning and consciousness into the single greatest challenge to the government's authority since the Jiangning Rebellion. With the influx of Vietnamese veterans, the Jiaxing Communists were able to truly go on the offensive, resulting in a series of raids and attacks culminating in the capture of Anshun, a major town of Guizhou near the provincial capital of Guiyang wherefrom Liu Zhennian was conducting his campaign, by rebel forces in January of 1933. Counter attacks by Liu Zhennian during the course of January and February floundered with great losses on both sides.

    At the same time Zhang Zongchang, having learned of the situation in the region and viewing it as an opportunity to attack his rival, brought the matter to the attention of Zhang Xueliang who had recently returned from the United States Presidential Inauguration. Just days later Zhang Zongchang became the target of a brother of one of the many women he had more or less forced to grace his harem, who put three bullets in the general, from which Zongchang would barely survive with a devastated health and an out-of-control opium addiction which left him effectively unfit for service - leading to his retirement from service with great distinction at the respectable age of 51. Nevertheless, the fuse had been set and Xueliang soon began to tear through the course of events in Southern China with growing horrified rage.

    Finally, on the 2nd of March he brought the entire matter before his father, demanding to know how matters had gotten so out of hand and accusing Yang Yuting of being a Japanese spy aiming to undermine the Fengtian regime in preparation for an invasion, it hardly being a secret that the new Japanese Emperor Genka loathed the ambiguous semi-alliance between Japan and China, and longed for an opportunity to create a pan-Asian Japanese Empire. Surprised at the scale of the disaster which his son was informing him of, which matched little with the highly optimistic, often exceedingly distorted, reports which Yang had been providing, Zhang Zuolin soon ordered Yang to attend him. After arriving Yang was met with open acrimony and demands for answers, none of which served to satisfy an increasingly enraged Zhang Zuolin, who finally pulled his service pistol, which he always carried with him, and shot his long-time advisor dead. Yang's death would be reported as an aneurism and Xueliang was soon appointed to clean up Yang's mess. Whether or not Yang had been a Japanese spy would remain a mystery to Zhang Zuolin, who moved from a Japan-skeptic position into outright hostility towards China's neighbor to the east (28).

    Zhang Xueliang faced an immense challenge on arrival in Shanghai, wherefrom he would direct the campaign for the most part. Turning to the capable General Han Fuju and the implacable General Ma Zhanshan, amongst many others, Xueliang initiated a complete restructuring of affairs in southern China, placing the trusted long-time Fengtian stalwart Tang Yulin in Chu Yupu's post, appointing Ma Zhanshan to maintaining order along the upper Yangtze and placing Han Fuju in place of Liu Zhennian - who was brought up on a variety of charges and executed as a signal on the part of Xueliang that incompetence and profiteering on such a scale would no longer be tolerated. As to the actual oversight and leadership of the pacification campaign, Xueliang demanded that the talented and popular Sun Chuanfang of Siberian Campaign fame be given the command.

    With his duties now reduced to oversight of the campaign and grand strategic concerns, the young Marshal was able to turn his attentions to restoring order to the region as a whole. The private tax farming scheme cooked up by Yang Yuting was scrapped in its entirety despite numerous protests, including from Japanese officials in Shanghai who were outraged when Xueliang refused to meet them for weeks on end and presumptuously dismissed them after a barely 15 minute meeting. During this time, Xueliang really dedicated himself to getting to know Southern China properly, which was what eventually brought him to the door of the Soong family, the one-time first family of the Kuomintang. Here Xueliang made the acquaintance of Soong Meiling, Chiang Kai-Shek's one-time betrothed, and her clever and talented siblings. Over the course of 1933, Xueliang became particularly close with Soong Meiling and her brother Soong Ziwen, using them as an invaluable resource to better understand the situation in the south while seeking to engage in an affair with Meiling, a situation which horrified her mother, who insisted on a good Christian marriage for her daughter, not the polygamous heathenry which Xueliang was ultimately proposing, nearly leading to Meiling's dispatch to America and resulting in Xueliang's banishment from the Soong home.

    Nevertheless, Xueliang would build a close friendship with Soong Xiwen, who he turned to for aid in resolving the economic challenges behind the crisis in the South-West, developing a stronger taxation system and engaging in negotiations with the various foreign powers based out of Shanghai in a bid to improve tariff rates and other aspects of trade relations, Xueliang ultimately appointing Xiwen as Deputy Foreign Minister. In the meantime, the relationship with Soong Meiling deepened further, although Meiling remained strongly opposed to anything which would break with Christian morality, their relationship remaining immensely ambiguous. Meiling was already well aware of the tale of Xueliang's aforementioned mistress and former secretary Zhao Yidi, the daughter of a prominent government minister who had run away from her family to live with the young Marshal to the shame of her family. Nevertheless, they continually exchanged tokens of appreciation and engaged in an impressive letter exchange in which Xueliang at times asked for advice on various governmental matters.

    In South-West China, the appointment of Sun Chuanfang signalled a major shift in directions for the campaign. As private tax farmers were forced from the region, many villages matched the effort, welcoming the arrival of the famous general and his men as keepers of the peace, which turned to jubilation when word that the hated Yang Yuting had died and been replaced by the vastly more popular Zhang Xueliang. However, there remained many village communes who were hostile to the arrival of outsiders, and the network of village communes established by the Jiaxing Communists remained armed and ready to respond to attacks. As these shifts on the Fengtian side occurred over the course of the first six months of 1933, the Jiaxing Communists were rapidly strengthening their positions and even engaging in active attacks on government positions.

    In Yunnan, the movement was able to secure a strong following in the provincial capital of Yunnan-Fu when the famous revolutionary Chen Jiongming led what was effectively a coup against the local governor and ex-warlord Tang Jiyao using Vietnamese mercenaries, happy to aid in removing a man who had cooperated with French colonial officials in Indochina to smuggle drugs and arms into China. With the aid of Chen Jiongming, the Jiaxing Communists now had a governmental platform from which to work, leading them to quickly stream into government offices across the province while radicalizing and drastically expanding the provincial guard in preparation for what they were certain was a devastating government assault.

    That assault came in August, when Ma Zhanshan advanced up the Yangtze with his men, cutting any chance of the rebels passing into the north-west, before Tang Yulin began to press westward from Guangdong and Han Fuji sought to purge Guizhou of rebel forces. The first two efforts met with little resistance, but in Guizhou the fighting proved bitter and intense, as guerilla fighting dominated the province. Nevertheless, Anshun was soon retaken and the Communists were pushed into the south-western parts of the province before long. By the end of September the government was ready for the second phase of the campaign, with Sun Chuanfang seeking to contain the rebels to Yunnan alone. Tang Yulin continued westward at a slow pace while securing control of all border crossings into Indochina within Guangxi while Ma Zhanshan pushed southward from the Yangtze, following the road through Chongqing and Zhaotong towards Yunnan-Fu in the process running into significant but diffuse resistance. Entire villages were searched with the discovery of weapons and other illicit goods such as Jiaxing Communist writings punished with sentences of hard labor on the Central Plains infrastructure projects, and resistance punished with death.

    The advent of winter in late 1933 brought the campaign to a standstill, as behind the lines Zhang Xueliang and Soong Xiwen worked to restore trust and rebuild the retaken regions. In Spring of 1934, the campaign restarted, with the last of Guangxi retaken even as northern Yunnan was slowly returned to government control. Increasingly pressured, the Jiaxing Communists debated how to proceed, whether to clash directly with the advancing armies or retreat. Finally, in May of 1934 the Communists and Chen Jiongming decided to withdraw from Yunnan-Fu, pulling ever further southward towards the Indochinese border which remained under the control of their allies in Tonkin - if only barely. Finally, at an emergency congress of the Jiaxing Communists on the 22nd of May 1934 the party determined that they would need to go into exile for the time being in order to save their movement and preserve its goals for the future of China's peoples, leading a major exodus southward, numbering nearly a million men, women and children in all, into Indochina where the previous French supremacy was once again crumbling in the face of a resurgent Tonkin resistance (29).

    Footnotes:
    (23) I really cannot overstate the important role played by Admiral Yamamoto Gonbee in keeping a lid on the bitter conflicts swirling beneath the surface. The idea of openly challenging Imperial authority is a novel one, and immensely dangerous because it could very easily spin out of control and bring the fervent pro-Imperial populace out in force against the political elites. Bear in mind that the political establishment mostly represent a relatively small urban populace, mostly western educated, middle-to-upper class, while the Imperial Family can call upon an endless ocean of stolid peasant partisans willing to sacrifice everything for their Emperor.

    The political struggles within the army also remain relatively low-key compared to OTL for the time being, with the moderates mostly winning out. It is worth noting this is not the Control Faction (Tosei) of OTL, but rather a collection of moderates who are a lot less militaristic in outlook. They look towards cooperation with the civilian government and are willing to bring the military into line, cutting down abuses and the excessive independence exercised by many military commands. Finally, we also see some shifts in the Imperial family, as Takahito marries his OTL sister-in-law (by his third brother Nobuhito) while Yasuhito marries a much more prestigious partner, and Yasuhito finds himself inspired by the Integralist ideologies. Worth noting that he is mostly working off of relatively simple reports on European affairs which basically summarize Integralism as a powerful leadership (monarchical in Yasuhito's view, since he is most interested in the Spanish branch of Integralism), corporatist structures and authoritarian government with a good dose of militarism on top, rather than a detailed reading of the various documents and writings of European ideologues. This is not some orthodox integralism which he is sponsoring, but he is rather using some of the ideology's basic ideas as building blocks to construct his own version of the ideology with a much more Japanese flavor.

    (24) Genka, as Yasuhito is known as Emperor, is a young and activist monarch who holds more than a little disdain towards the weakness of his father - who he believes allowed the deterioration of Imperial authority from the grand heights of his grandfather, although how much actual authority Meiji actually wielded is a bit hard to determine. He is ambitious and hardworking, but holds great disdain for the civilian democratic government as a hold, even if he is more than a little intimidated and overawed by Prime Minister Yamamoto. His decision to create a more formal political party to strengthen his grip on power comes as a result of him learning of the Union de la Droite in France and the way in which they gradually strengthened their political position until they were able to exploit the political chaos of 1932 and 1933 to enter into the mainstream. At the same time, however, we see that the Imperial Family begins to find itself influenced by this growing politicisation of the Imperial House, with Takahito gradually falling into Communist circles even as he becomes privy to inside information as part of Genka's inner circle. How Takahito responds to this tension will be a key decision for him at some point in the future.

    (25) Here we see the continued development of Japanese Communism, as Kita Ikki's program clashes with more moderate/orthodox members of the party while Yamakawa Hitoshi maintains the peace as far as he is able. The arrival of the Trotskyites ends up causing trouble, but also proves invaluable for the vast amount of experience the party is able to extract from the émigrés. The Trotskyites ultimately end up getting played like a fiddle, with the Japanese learning all they wished to know in return for a decent but manageable investment of time, manpower and resources. Ultimately, they decide to act when Kalinin becomes too haughty and crack down on their guests, only keeping those they want to retain and getting rid of those that won't aid their cause. It is worth mentioning here that Khrushchev is amongst those retained in Japan, and he increasingly comes to serve as a key link for the Mexico-bound Kaganovich.

    (26) It is worth mentioning that the OTL Chinese Famine of 1928-30 killed between 10 and 30 million people, so this is an incredible achievement which truly wins the hearts and minds of the vast majority of northern China. This section also helps to flesh out Zhang Xueliang a bit - the stuff about him personally is actually OTL including the wife and mistress/concubine (from my reading all three seem to have been living together pretty harmoniously after an initial period of conflict between husband and wife at the start. The ambitious North China development programme is an effort by the Fengtian government to counter the predominantly southern-oriented economic, social and political development which has previously characterised Chinese affairs in the 20th century.

    The rebuilding of the Grand Canal is a massive long-term project, but while some areas of the Canal have been totally abandoned there are plenty which just need some maintenance work and modernisation efforts to get running properly. It will probably take until at least the early or mid 40s for the project to near completion, considering the incredible amount of rebuilding, dredging of rivers and canals, construction of new spurs of the Canal to take into account shifts in the various rivers and the like, but when it is done it will connect the entirety of the Central Plains, turning it into a single massive industrial and agricultural breadbasket which will fuel the economic development of China to new heights. The Fengtian Clique have already demonstrated a talent for industrial development in Manchuria, and they are now beginning to extend that to their North Chinese heartland. This is done not only due to the weaker grip the Fengtian grip has on the south, but also due to a variety of cultural and social biases between north and south which play into all of this, the Zhangs are fiercely northern in outlook and have come to view southerners with more than a little wariness and distrust.

    (27) I know that I have gotten into some of this already, but I feel that it is probably necessary to give a somewhat more detailed description of these events before things really kick off in the next section. One of the key conflicts IOTL late in Zhang Zuolin's life was between Zhang Xueliang and Yang Yuting over the response to the Japanese. While ITTL, the Japanese are far less openly hostile, they are still viewed with a great deal of negative sentiment by many, while others - like Yang - view them as the best allies to work with for the time being as China modernises. I am probably being a bit unfair towards Yang in all of this, but I don't think this is an unfathomable path for events to take in the south. It is important to take note of the fact that this is happening in the south-western rural interior, which is extremely difficult for governments to actually deal with. Hell, to this day the PRC struggles to control the region, so when someone like Yang Yuting proposes to just hand over the hard work of collecting taxes in the region to private actors, Zhang Zuolin is open to the suggestion and foists it off on Yang. IOTL Zhang Zuolin, while supporting the development of an impressive industrial development for the first half of the 1920s, was very willing to mess with currency devaluation and creative tax strategies when the state ran into a cash crunch. In this case, while the state is doing quite well, the inability collect money from the far reaches of the Fengtian domains greatly annoy Zhang Zuolin, so when he hears of a proposal that would resolve the issue and bring in immediate money to help finance the ambitious Central Plains plans, he jumps at the suggestion with troubling consequences.

    (28) So, I am realising as I write this section that I am in trouble. This was originally meant to be a quick two-section update, but it is rapidly ballooning out and I still haven't actually gotten to Xueliang's time in the south yet. This section sees a number of important developments, but the most important are probably the crossing of the Vietnamese into South China - escalating the conflict and providing a large supply of recruits and advisors, Yang's mishandling of affairs and subsequent death, leading to a significant cooling of relations between China and Japan, and finally the assassination attempt on Zhang Zongchang which ends up removing one of the major Fengtian leaders from the south. Bear in mind that Liu Zhennian was dispatched by Chu Yupu, who ends up losing a great deal of prestige from the entire matter, and with Zhang Zongchang and Yang Yuting amongst others gone there is an increasingly troubling lack of trustworthy Fengtian leaders.

    (29) I am stopping there because otherwise this will just keep ballooning out. There are two parts to this section, Xueliang's increasingly close relationship with the Shanghai Elite, most prominently the Soong clan, and the gradual suppression of the South-West Chinese unrest. The approach taken by the Chinese leadership in this campaign is one of troop saturation, with each of the mentioned armies numbering almost 100,000 men, so some 300,000 in all with further reinforcements and irregulars, and a reluctant but constant retreat on the part of the Communists and their growing following. There is resistance, but the quality of arms and professionalism of the two forces are simply not comparable, Xueliang brings a good portion of his Northeastern veterans with him to aid in bolstering the southern armies, and draws on the most modern arms available in China while the rebels have what they were able to scrounge up. Also worth mentioning that by the latter half of 1933, the Jiaxing Communists have lost the backing of their Indochinese allies, who have returned to Indochina once more to continue the revolt there, resulting in a precipitous loss of veteran soldiery and resources.

    Summary:
    The Soviet Republic solidifies its role as a revolutionary government even as Trotsky extends his power across the state apparatus.
    Trotsky reaches for the stars, only to fall short. A great man falls and his movement fall with him.
    In the Don Republic, miscalculation and hubris see a failed invasion of Georgia result in major political consequences at home.
    In Japan gathering storm clouds signal troubles in the future under a new and young Emperor, while in China the Fengtian government slowly extends its grip on power to the entirety of the Middle Kingdom.

    End Note:

    This legit took around three hours to edit :oops: Anyway, I really hope that you enjoyed all the different little tales packed into this half of the update. There is quite a bit of groundwork being set down in this one which should have consequences in some of the updates to follow.

    I think that the title of the update ended up being quite fitting, everything taken into consideration - I was playing around with a couple trying to find a theme which would tie things together. This update is about what exactly the Great Man Theory implies. It sees the rise and fall of a great man to his own hubris in the form of Trotsky. It asks whether someone can be forced to be a Great Man in the form of Wrangel, it asks whether Great Men can be women or children - and perhaps what a lack of Great Men might result in. It gets into the question of whether Great also means Terrible and whether a Great Movement can be greater than a Great Man.

    A thousand thanks to @Ombra for helping pick up the slack last week, giving some added insight into the lives of a few of the figures I hadn't gotten into proper detail with yet.

    Starting up at a new place of work has been interesting, but has reduced how much energy and time I have to think and write on the TL, so while I am still working on writing out new updates the pace has slowed quite a bit. Luckily I have a pretty deep backlog to draw on (working on update 38 at the moment), so it shouldn't have any noticeable impact on the pace of updates or the content, at least for a couple months - and by then I am hopeful that I will have acclimated to the situation and that my pace will have picked up.

    I would really love to hear more from people - what do you think of the developments? Opinions on developments in the Don/Georgia/Soviet Republic/Japan/China? Thoughts on future developments? To be honest, I sort of miss the more extended discussions that I had with readers when I was originally writing on the TL.
     
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    Narrative Eleven: The End of A Legend, The Royal Communist & The Young Marshal
  • The End of a Legend

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    Leon Trosky is Sentenced to Death​

    Mid-Day, 20th of April 1934
    Bogorodsky Val Prospekt 8, Moscow City, Soviet Republic of Russia


    Andrei Sverdlov could not help but feel a twinge of admiration for the great man, seated firmly in the defendant's box, back straight and attention squarely upon the proceedings even after being muzzled.

    Under other circumstances, he might well have supported the man. There were few people as gifted in intellect and rhetoric, and while he had his differences with the great man, there was little doubt that the years the great man had spent in Moscow had been of the utmost importance in the quest to raise up the Soviet Republic to glory. If only he had been able to constrain his ambitions, If only he had been willing to dedicate himself the Republic, if only…

    He shook his head lightly, seeking to dispel the careless thoughts.

    Not far from where Andrei sat with his fellow GPU agents, stood Uncle Stuchka, haranguing the court with all the of the great man's worst deeds. Genocide amongst the Tartars, betrayal of the Communist Cause, Bonapartist Ambitions, Undermining of the Military Leadership. The list was endless, many claims merited, some not so much.

    Andrei spared a glance for his boss, Mikhail Schreider, who was feeding a steady stream of information to Stuchka in the various recesses and pauses as the court case proceeded, calling up his individual investigators to provide the relevant information when the time came.

    Andrei had already been up four times so far in the last week, once to explain some of the documents collected from Kamenev and Kaganovich's households, once to detail the confessions of poor Uncle Chernyi, it had barely taken a quarter of an hour before he was spilling his secrets, another to go over financial statements from the great man's household and finally to provide a summary of the information collected from the interrogations of the great man's aides and secretary. That had been messy work.

    However, the work must be done. The Republic must be brought back onto an even keel. The Revolution must be protected. Even if that work was bloody. Even if it made him question his own humanity at times.

    He felt unsteady for a moment, nausea rushing through him and the edges of his sight darkening.

    The sight of Aleya (1) in the gallery steadied him. A pen flickered swiftly across her notepad as she noted down everything in preparation for an article in Pravda, mind clearly spinning behind her dark eyes and a slight smile on her lips.

    As though feeling the heat of his gaze, she looked to him. Their eyes locked, and they shared a quiet smile, the dark thoughts swarming his mind lightened as though a breeze had blown through it, bringing the sounds of joy and happiness with it.

    A memory of the winter dance they had attended at the Kremlin played before his eyes, Aleya in her stunning red dress with her raven-black hair piled atop her head.

    They had been together for two years and, even if Andrei's work often took him away from the capital for extended period of time, he could not have been happier for their time together. Whether it be dinners and parties, excursions into the countryside and holidays abroad, all of it had been enjoyable when in her company. Even the increasingly nerve-wracking dinners at the House of Government seemed pleasant when she was with him.

    However, it was late at night, as they unburdened themselves to each other, Aleya speaking with longing of her long-exiled father, and he of the growing stain upon his soul as the unending bloody work of maintaining the revolution weighed him down, that Andrei grew ever more resolute in his love.

    After the last months of hectic work, he needed a break. There was a grand cabin at Late Ilmen which he had been promised the use of by his father. Peace and relaxation for a month in the lake-side woods, with only his childhood friends and lover to distract him. He could barely contain his eagerness to be on his way.

    A soft elbow to the ribs tore Andrei from his day dream, leaving him scowling angrily at Jan (1), who was trying to return Andrei's attentions to the proceedings.

    A mental litany of curses engulfed his mind as he realized what his best friend was trying to do, and he scrambled to make his way to Chief Schreider to provide his last pieces of information, throwing a grateful glance back at Jan, whose smug grin immediately made him regret his gratitude.

    After handing over written testimonial evidence collected on the great man's involvement in the attempted Khivan invasion, he returned to his seat, only to realise that the great man had seemingly turned his attention to Andrei.

    Their gazes crossed and for a seeming moment, Andrei felt as though he could glimpse a measure of what was going on inside the great man's head.

    Remembering back to the previous weeks, when the great man ran rampant within the court, bellowing his denunciations of the charges and making a fool of Kyrlenko, Andrei could not help but feel it a pity that the revolution should be robbed of such a magnificent figure. He felt like a zoo keeper, forced to put down his prized Tiger after it turned man-eater.

    -----

    Two days later, the verdict condemning the great man to death on charges of Bonapartism and much else was passed down.

    Three days thereafter, on an early April morning, Andrei passed through the marbled halls of Lubyanka on his way to the cells in the basement, accompanied by a pair of guards.

    No matter how many times he walked through the building, he could not help but feel a cold wind along his back, goosebumps rising seemingly without cause. The majesty of the building above ground truly did not match the horrors of what happened in the dark below. But, as with all other things, with experience came contempt, the loss of awe at the cause for which the building stood, and a loss of horror for what happened below.

    As he descended into the darkness, he began to hear the moans and groans, sobs and cries, of the prisoners, the great man's fall had brought with it a regiment's worth of new guests, but he forged on as though deaf to it all.

    Finally, he reached the cell he had been looking for, signalling to one of the guards to open the heavy steel door, before stepping into the spartan cell.

    The great man sat quietly on the cement slab on which his mattress rested, turning to the door at the sound of Andrei's entry.

    A sallow, sardonic grin sat upon the great man's lips.

    "Is it time, Young Andrei?" He asked, to which the younger man could do little but nod - his throat suddenly tightening up as his memories of the great man replayed themselves.

    His magnificent arrival in Moscow. His braying laugh as he listened to some story or other from the many children who called the House of Government home. His visits to dinner with Andrei's father, listening as the pair spoke of their ambitions for the revolution and worked in concert to further the cause. The bitter fights between the great man and Uncle Bukharin in the later years. The great man's fearful expression when he learned that his son Sergei had been captured after the failed uprising. Now Andrei would bear witness to his end.

    Slowly, he led the great man from his cell and through the hallways towards the courtyard where he was to die.

    Their trip was silent, interrupted only by the click-clack of Andrei's shoes upon the flagstones and the jingling of the great man's chains.

    However, just before crossing the threshold into the courtyard, where the firing squad was awaiting him, the great man suddenly turned to Andrei and spoke quietly, so that only he could hear, apparently caught by a feeling of urgency to pass on whatever he had realised on their walk.

    "Remember young man, the cost of Hubris. Do not repeat my mistakes." A bizarre, almost horrific, grin split the great man's face before he turned back and crossed into the courtyard.

    Andrei stood rooted in the hallways for a full five minutes before the sound of a dozen rifles firing made him jump in shock.

    He entered the courtyard slowly, first spotting the firing squad marching out the door opposite while a dozen men remained behind to take care of what was left to be done.

    There was a body covered in a white linen sheet at the other end of the courtyard and blood spattered upon the wall.

    Andrei, resolute once more, stalked to the nearby table where the GPU record keeper was noting down the details of the execution.

    Bronstein, Lev Davidovich - called Leon Trotsky: Shot Dead By Firing Squad at 05.15 on the 25th of April 1934; Last Words - "Preserve The Revolution! Preserve The Soviet Republic!"

    Andrei released a breath which he had not realised he was holding.

    The Great Man was dead.

    Footnotes:
    (1) Both Aleya and Jan were mentioned in the previous narrative section on Andrei Sverdlov, but in case people missed it these two are Ariadne Efron and Jan Dzerzhinsky. Ariadne, who proved herself a talented writer IOTL, has become a prominent young writer with Pravda, to the point of being given the task of covering the trial with a couple others, while both Jan and Andrei have joined the GPU. IOTL Andrei joined the NKVD and was a fairly prominent figure there. ITTL his father is basically head of the entire intelligence apparatus, and Jan's father was the former head of the Cheka, so the appointments seem a pretty natural fit.

    The Royal Communist

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    The Red Prince, Takahito​

    Late Evening, 8th of May 1934
    Second Year Dorms, Imperial Japanese Army Academy, Tokyo, Empire of Japan


    Takahito pulled at the sleeve of his cadet's uniform while the fingers of his other hand tapped a quiet, worried tat-tat-tat against the arm of his chair.

    It was late in the evening, curfew having been declared several hours prior, and here he sat in the quiet study hall of the dorms as he waited for his companions to join him.

    He glanced at the letters on the table. One from years ago, when his brother was still just his brother, complaining that the yearly military exercise had been cut short during his junior year at the academy. One written in the horrific days after Hirohito died, worrying about Takahito's safety and describing their father's slow descent into catatonia. Another, this time exultant, after a fruitful meeting with General Araki, probably one of the first times that Kokumin Domei was ever mentioned in writing anywhere.

    However, it was this last letter, received two days prior, which was the source of his current worries and frustration.

    Otouto,

    I hope all is well, and that you are enjoying your time at the Academy as much as I did.

    Your wife wanted me to add her greetings the next time I wrote you, so you better let her know that I did as she asked!

    I really do not understand how such a small figure can contain such a great will… I worry for your future children, how will they survive if they ever disappoint her?

    On a more serious note, I have heard back from Nakano Seigo that work is well under way on our political campaign. Apparently he thinks our greatest trouble comes from a gaggle of peasants and that odious Kita Ikki fellow, I remember reading one of his pamphlets at the Academy, but I cannot fathom how people can think to support him. By our ancestors, I hate this rotten "democracy" which father has shackled me to. I still cannot believe that I, a son of the Yamato, must go through with this charade. However, do not worry brother, it won't be long before we can rid ourselves of the useless parasites and restore Nippon to its rightful glory.

    I had a meeting with a man from China. It seems like they are getting their mess in the south under control, but by our ancestors was he an arrogant little man. Came stalking into the audience hall, snout high in the air and a dismissive look on his face. I should have had him caned, but Captain Nonaka from the academy was able to calm me. You will never know how much I have enjoyed keeping an old class-mate by my side. Keep that in mind, and make great friends at school as well!

    I look forward to the day you finish school, and can come aid me in our grand project.

    One day the Red Sun shall fly over all of Asia and the Pacific - I know it can be done, and I know that I will need you by my side to accomplish it.

    Don't get into (too much) trouble!

    Your loving brother,

    Yasuhito

    His brother was worsening.

    He had always been a bit peculiar, a bit overly sensitive towards criticism and restrictions and had a propensity for living in something of a dream world, imagining a world more in line with his wishes when reality failed to live up to his expectations. But as his brother grew up and came to power, matters had gotten worse.

    He had been forced to give up his dream of a military career, instead finding himself engulfed in a constant swirl of politics and intrigue with little recourse but to get ever more deeply involved. Since then he had become colder, harsher, the domineering spirit of their childhood games imposed upon the adult world regardless of the harm that it might bring. His mind had been allowed to run rampant under the instigation of poisonous advisors as he began to work towards turning his dream world into reality.

    The more he heard of his brothers' plans, the more worried he became for his country and its people. As written by Kita-Sensei, "Only by raising up the peoples of Nippon and uniting them in a common revolutionary cause, would they be able to throw off the yoke of the foreigner and forge a path forward for the peoples of these Islands." and if there was one thing Takahito had learned from hours of listening to his brother pontificate it was that he did not believe in unity of the peoples. To his brother, all that mattered was the accumulation of ultimate power into a single all-powerful ruler, who would be able to direct all the peoples of Nippon in bringing the Empire to everlasting glory (1).

    Takahito's worried thoughts were soon interrupted by the arrival of his compatriots.

    Dressed, as Takahito was, in their uniforms and carrying a welter of books, leaflets and pamphlets proclaiming their support of the cause.

    "Comrade Prince, great to see you!" exclaimed the short, stocky young man at the front, using the nickname Comrade Isobe had given him the first time he attended one of these meetings. A grin crossed Takahito's face as he turned to the new arrivals, "To you as well Comrades Yukimura and Fukuda. Are the others coming?"

    Fukuda gave a sharp nod as he dumped the books in his arms on the nearby table and began moving the chairs into position for their study group. Yukimura, glowered about sourly for a moment before helping out Fukuda.

    A small grin graced Takahito's lips. The privileges of rank exist beyond just the Imperial Court, even here amongst Socialists and Communists, the junior gave way to senior and the follower to the leader. Regardless of what Marx had to say on the issue, there really was no escaping the strictures of Koshi-Sensei (2).

    As the two junior members of their little club finished arranging the area, the rest of their members began to arrive.

    Before long they were all seated, each with their own tiny booklet of notes and commentary on their readings prepared for discussion.

    "Let us start with our most recent participants. Comrade Fukuda, any questions to the reading?" asked Takahito in his role as study group leader.

    Fukuda, his stocky frame matched by a round face still marked by the last inklings of baby fat, grimaced slightly before fingering through his notebook, eventually settling on a page.

    "I… When Kita-Sensei wrote that, only though military might can we free Asia from the grip of the coloniser, did he mean Europeans in particular? I mean, in some of Fukumoto-Sensei's writings he speaks of Japan as a colonial power, so would that not imply that any such effort on the part of the peoples of Nippon would simply be an extension of a new colonial power?" He seemed a bit flustered by the end, probably uncertain of whether he would be attacked for questioning the matter.

    Takahito smiled softly, remembering when he had asked a similar question shortly after joining their little club, before answering: "No need to look so worried. You are right that there are inconsistencies between the two statements, but what you must bear in mind is that the two Sensei are referring to different circumstances. Kita-Sensei is describing a Nippon under Kyosanto leadership, as outlined elsewhere in his writings, while Fukumoto-Sensei is criticising the current state of affairs in our great Empire."

    He paused for a moment to check if Fukuda was following his chain of logic before continuing, "As stated by Kita-Sensei, when Nippon falls under Kyosanto leadership it brings with it an alignment between the classes and races of our common community, washing away the stain of colonialism and unifying all peoples behind a common revolutionary cause. It is only after such a process has occurred, that Kita-Sensei imagines Nippon as the heart of a spreading revolutionary cause brought forth through military, political and cultural might."

    Fukuda smiled happily, his broad backside twisting enough to draw a sound of protest from the chair. "I understand now, thank you Comrade Prince!" He seemed overly eager to have had his question answered, but then again it would not be the first time one of their newer members struggled to deal with having a son of the House of Yamato explain revolutionary doctrine to them.

    Turning his attention to Comrade Yukimori, Takahito waited paitiently for the next question. It would be far from the last he answered or asked that evening.

    Footnotes:
    (1) Yasuhito, who Takahito is referring to, is noted for having had a brash and ambitious personality, who often clashed with his "softer" brother, the Emperor, and who greatly enjoyed military life. His development ITTL is somewhat different, as he was forced to cut his military schooling short when his brother was assassinated and has been steeped to a much greater degree in the political intrigues of the court and government than IOTL. This has allowed his ambitious personality to really let loose, as we have seen previously.

    (2) Takahito is referring to the concept of the Five Bonds in Confucian philosophy, and the way in which despite espousing a disregard for culture and custom, the Japanese Communists nevertheless are unable to escape some of these fundamental concepts which have been deeply ingrained in their cultural consciousness. The Koshi-Sensei referred to here is Confucius, just so no one is left confused.

    The Young Marshal

    Chang_Shueliang.jpg

    Zhang Xueliang, Marshal of the Qing Empire​

    Evening, 12th of May 1934
    Penthouse, 10th Floor of the Sassoon House, Huangpu, Shanghai, Qing China (1)


    Xueliang sipped at the glass of wine in his hand, enjoying the view of both his recently arrived companion and the night sky over the City of Shanghai. Sitting in the tallest building in Asia had its benefits.

    "Thank you for joining me Ling'er (2). I can't imagine your mother was pleased." A rakish grin meeting his beautiful guest. Soong Meiling was dressed in a dark qipao patterned with golden lions and copper tigers, her presence enhancing the effect of the dress ten-fold, although the angry lighting in her eyes left him the tiniest bit nervous.

    "She wasn't." Came the curt response. She took a breath, seeming to calm down. "Did you need to send a limousine to the house? You are only making her angrier." Her brows were drawn together in an annoyed frown.

    "How else could I be certain that you would make it in time, much longer and you would have missed the fireworks." He replied, in reference to the 12th of May Celebrations which had been occurring annually for the last decade and a half.

    She seemed to give the excuse some thought before letting the matter go, slipping into her seat with impressive grace and elegance, as she did so much else.

    The staff, waiting along the walls for direction, were sent into motion by a wave of Xueliang's hand - soon seeing drinks and appetizers served.

    An unimpressed gaze met his when he turned back to Meiling. Xueliang gave an unrepentant grin in return.

    "Did Elder Brother (3) get finished with the Guangdong Redevelopment Plan?" She asked, all business.

    "He did. Ten Million Yuan, it shouldn't be an issue drawing it up from Guangzhou. Father wants to keep the focus of investment in the north for now so it might take a bit of time before the plan is put in motion."

    She nodded, turning to admire the view while sipping at her glass.

    "Hmmm. That should be enough to keep the place in order. I hear the campaign in Guangxi is nearing its end?"

    He grinned, "I really do wish I knew who was telling you what is going on there. I think I can narrow it down to half a dozen officers, but which of them it is, I do not know."

    "Why not all of them?" She asked, a sly grin making its way to her lips.

    Xueliang felt a frown beginning to form before he could bring his features under control, a twinge of jealousy running through him.

    "Oh. Indeed? Well, better to be too harsh than too lenient I suppose." He paused dramatically, straightening in his chair and raising a hand high, "Off with their heads!" he cried, freezing for a moment before the giggles of his companion allowed him to fall back into his chair.

    "You really should be careful about such jokes, who knows, someone might take you seriously one of these days." Meiling was smiling broadly, her pearly whites clear against the night sky in the window behind her.

    Xueliang checked his watch.

    "We should be turning our attentions outside - the fireworks are about to begin."

    Rising from their chairs, they made their way to the nearby window, where various snacks and a pair of glasses had been prepared.

    A second check of his watch showed that there was barely a minute left before the festivities began.

    Grapping two glasses of champagne, he passed one to Meiling with a smile, clinking them in a quiet toast just as the first explosions sounded outside the window.

    Footnotes:
    (1) The Sassoon House was built in the late 1920s by the exceedingly rich Sir Victor Sassoon and was one of the first high-rise buildings in Asia. Zhang Xueliang has been borrowing the Penthouse from Sassoon as residence while in Shanghai.

    (2) Ling'er is a Chinese diminutive created by taking one of the characters of her name and adding 'er. It helps signal their closeness.

    (3) Elder Brother here refers to Soong Xiwen, but in general in Chinese honorifics are used a great deal to refer to people. Elder Brother, Da Ge, is one such honorific.

    End Note:

    I really hope that people enjoy these vignettes. These ones in particular I feel are amongst the best I have written so far, but I would love feedback. I found writing Andrei's character particularly interesting, and felt that this was a great way of sending off Trotsky with a bit of style. It also let me explore some of the tension and mental pressures which people in the GPU are under. In contrast to OTL, the GPU isn't staffed from top to bottom with psychopaths, so the impact should be considerable. However, the commitment and belief in the revolutionary cause is very much alive in the Soviet Republic - where I feel a lot of that was lost during the years under Stalin IOTL. We also get a proper introduction to Takahito as an actual historical actor and figure in the TL, and a glimpse into the Young Marshal's personality up close, as well as his relationship with OTL Madam Chiang.
     
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    Update Thirty-Four (Pt. 1): Between Dreams and Nightmares
  • Between Dreams and Nightmares

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    Haile Selassie Gugsa with German Advisors

    The Four Horsemen of Africa​

    The will produced by Ras Gugsa Welle on the death of his wife, Empress Zewditu, which named him as her successor, was disputed from the start by the various factions in Ethiopia. By 1930 the ruling Solomonic Dynasty had turned into a complex welter of interconnected and internecine relations with multiple feuding branches and numerous contenders to the throne. While Gugsa Welle made his claim to the throne by way of his wife, he was also a decent candidate for the throne in his own right as a descendent of one of the other branches of the Solomonic dynasty. Beyond that, Gugsa Welle was notable for not only his administrative and military talents, but was also renowned as a poet and dedicated bibliophile with a noted piety which drew support from the church to him. However, Gugsa Welle had good reason to hold a grudge against many of the more conservative Ethiopian nobles, who had worked constantly to undermine his beloved aunt Dowager Empress Taytu Betul, had allowed Gugsa Welle to be imprisoned and tortured cruelly under Lej Iyasu's rule, had forced him from his beloved wife for nearly a decade and had consistently sought to undermine his position as Regent in the years following the death of Tafari Makonnen.

    Thus, fearing Gugsa Welle's revenge should he be allowed to ascend the throne, the majority of the conservative nobility looked for alternate candidates to the throne. While a small minority threw their support behind the imprisoned, and potentially still Muslim, Lej Iyasu - a member of the Shewan branch of the dynasty to which Empress Zewditu had belonged as well, it would be in the Tigrayan branch which was to see the greatest degree of support. While Gugsa Araya Selassie and his son Haile Selassie Gugsa had grown into the inheritors of Ras Tafari Makonnen's role as leaders of the modernist faction in Ethiopia, the Tigrayans of the Solomonic Dynasty had two, bitterly hostile lines of descent from the former Emperor Yohannes IV who contended for leadership. While Gugsa Araya Selassie's father, Araya Selassie Yohannes, was the elder "legitimate" son of Yohannes IV, he was not his only son. A younger "natural born" son by the name of Ras Mengesha Yohannes and his successors had grown to be the bane of Gugsa Araya Selassie's existence for much of his life as clashes over the inheritance of their Tigrayan kingdom consumed the two branches. Thus, while Gugsa Araya Selassie had emerged as a leading moderniser, his cousin Ras Seyoum Mengesha, the son of Ras Mengesha Yohannes, had come to be known as one of the staunchest conservatives in the country and soon emerged as the favourite successor for the majority of the conservative nobility.

    While each of these candidates had their supporters, Gugsa Welle amongst the Gondorans of the north-west and the Church, Iyasu amongst a minority of the Shewan nobility and in the more Muslim south, Araya Selassie in eastern Tigray, Harar and Shewa and Seyoum Mengesha in western Tigray and Shewa, there were major power differences between them. Gugsa Welle held the capital of Addis Ababa, and with it the keys to the treasury, imperial authority and the support of the military high command in the form of Commander-in-Chief Balcha Safo, while Iyasu remained under house arrest in Harar and at the mercy of Araya Selassie's followers, who were to prove merciless. The moment word reached Harar that some were proclaiming Iyasu as the rightful Emperor, Haile Selassie Gugsa, who was serving as governor in the region after coopting Tafari Makonnen's ties to the locals through his marriage to Tafari's daughter, had Iyasu brought before him and put to death, the particular method remaining the subject of considerable rumour, with everything from a firing squad or forced suicide to him being fed to lions being circulating amongst the populace.

    Thus, the first of the four contenders was extinguished before he even had a chance to make his bid for power. While this move had the effect of securing the south for the Modernists, it was to considerably weaken the faction's standing amongst the nobility, who felt that the brutal murder of a high noble and former Emperor set a worrying precedent for the conflict to come, whereas prior succession strife had usually seen the nobility large spared mass death, with exiles, imprisonment or ritual humiliation in the wake of defeat far more common than execution or outright murder. The result was the steady erosion of support for Gugsa Araya Selassie in the north, to the benefit of Seyoum Mengesha, turning the latter into Gugsa Welle's most prominent rival. This weakening of the modernist cause was to result in Gugsa Welle turning his full attentions to Seyoum Mengesha and his launching of the Imperial Army in Addis Ababa northward towards Gondar, with plans for the reclamation of Tigray. The two major conservative candidates rushed to muster their forces over the course of the middle of 1930 while the Modernists retreated into the less populous south.

    When Araya Selassie arrived in Harar, he was rumored to have launched into a loud, expletive-laden condemnation of his son for the bitter blow Iyasu's death had dealt Selassie's cause. Ultimately a far more conservative figure personally than his leadership of the Modernists might suggest, Araya Selassie greatly disliked his son's total disregard for tradition and custom, semi-irreligiosity and seeming willingness to do anything to achieve his goals. This became particularly clear when Haile Selassie Gugsa proposed reaching out to the local Muslim population with promises of lessened religious discrimination to win their support, a proposal which his father shut down without discussion, disgusted at the mere thought. This tension within the modernist faction, who by and large were made up mostly of younger men disenchanted with tradition and custom, resulted in a great deal of tension, as Haile Selassie Gugsa enjoyed considerably greater support amongst his father's putative supporters than the claimant himself. Thus, with the modernisers divided amongst their leadership, the conservatives were to take centre stage during the first phases of the emergent Ethiopian Civil War (1).

    The first major clashes of the civil war would occur in the north between the Welleian and Mengheshan faction of conservatives across the two sprawling provinces of Wello and Gondar. While Mengesha's initial support had largely been limited to Tigray itself, he found a rapidly growing surge of support across much of the less populous western provinces, and as such his faction soon grew into a true threat to Gugsa Welle. Gugsa Welle thus set out to isolate and defeat Mengesha in Tigray before he could reach out and begin to organize his western supporters. The result was to turn the two major passes from the central Plateau into Tigray into a bitterly contested battlefield. While Balcha Safo led the Imperial Army of the Center north-east from Addis Ababa, Gugsa Welle himself rushed to his native Gondar and began mustering the regional levies while passing over much of the administrative work to a variety of family members and church officials. However, the Welleians were not to prove the only actors in this drama, as Mengesha dispatched a holding force to the south to slow down Balcha Safo's forces while going on the offensive further north against the more disorganised Gondarans. Advancing with his well-trained personal army, Mengesha caught Gugsa Welle by surprise with his aggression and had already secured the two towns of Debark and Dabat north of the City of Gondar before the Gondarans could form into an army.

    While Mengesha's force was outnumbered by almost a third, he proved undaunted, rushing to catch his rival by surprise. The result was the Battle of Gondar fought on the 18th of August 1930, in which the recently formed Gondaran Army found itself forced to battle barely a week after forming by the far more cohesive Tigrayans. Notably, this battle was largely devoid of any of the modern accruements of war and was determined more by the bravery of Mengesha's retinue than anything else. After the levies clashed, Mengesha exploited a hole between the center and left wing of the Gondaran army to break the enemy formation, charging into the gap in a classic cavalry charge and splintering the Gondaran defenders. While Gugsa Welle struggled to withdraw, using the much more cohesive right-wing to shield the retreating center, there was nothing he could do for the collapsing left. By the end of the day, the Welleians had been forced to abandon Gondar and retreat southward in hopes of linking up with Balcha Safo while Mengesha led a victory parade through the streets of the ancient ancestral city of his rival.

    However, Mengesha could not rest long on his laurels, for Balcha Safo had only been slowed, not stopped, by the blocking force dispatched to stop the Imperial Central Army. The fall of Gondar opened up communications to the west and allowed Mengesha to reinforce his bloodied but victorious army, swelling the force to some 50,000, a match for the equally reinforced Imperial Central Army which had been advancing into Tigray before Gugsa Welle's arrival forced Balcha Safo to reorient his force towards Gondar. What followed was a three-month period of positional warfare across much of the Province of Gondar as the weather grew increasingly horrendous, eventually forcing the two rival armies to retreat into winter quarters, the Mengeshans in Gondar and the Welleians to the central town of Weldiya wherefrom they could advance north into Tigray, westward into Gondar or southward to Addis Ababa should the need arise, thus bringing the first year of the conflict to a relatively quiet end. The winter of 1930-31 was to see a further entrenchment of all three candidates to the throne, with Gugsa Araya Selassie finally giving way to his son's entreaties to begin recruiting amongst the southerners, with Haile Selassie Gugsa soon forming a nondenominational force, of which the elite proved surprisingly well armed as Haile Selassie opened up contact to the Germans in Somaliland without his father's knowledge. The new year would see the two conservative forces clash once more, even as the modernists mustered their forces to sweep to victory.

    The resumption of hostilities in early spring of 1931 was marked by a determination on the side of both conservative candidates to determine a winner. The result was a series of escalating skirmishes fought on the rugged, largely rural landscape between Weldiya and Gondar, finally coming into direct contact along two ridgelines between the villages of Gayint and Debre Zebit a short distance from the Weldiya-Gondar road. This time Mengesha was to find his position less favorable than at Gondar, for although his army had grown to outnumber his opponent by nearly 15,000 men the Welleians had stronger cohesion and contained the modernized troops of the Central Army. Reluctant to open himself up to a counter-attack, Mengesha held his army back, daring his enemy to make the first assault. With either army located atop a ridge, it was easy to shift forces back and forth in relative secrecy and to anchor a defensive position, making the aggressor likely to overextend. Nonetheless, Gugsa Welle was a wily opponent who was well aware of such fact, leading him to rely on the one point of advantage held by his forces, modern arms. The, by global standards horrifically outdated, artillery thus opened fire on the Mengeshans. Over the course of half a day this bombardment continued as Gugsa Welle sought to push his opponent into attacking first, with Mengesha finding himself under ever greater pressure from his noblemen to do just that.

    However, it would be Balcha Safo, commanding the Welleian levies. who blinked first, ordering an attack when he became convinced that the enemy force was on the brink of collapse. While Gugsa Welle scrambled to figure out why his levies were suddenly advancing, Mengesha saw his opportunity and ordered an all-out assault by his levies. As the two levies slammed home between the ridges, the Mengeshan cavalry launched themselves into the chaos without orders, seeking to cut through the enemy levies as they had at Gondar, only to stall out, becoming bogged down in the melee. This allowed Gugsa Welle to send his much more professional modern infantry to the rear of the levies, allowing them to begin firing into the bloody melee over the heads of their levies. This sudden added pressure turned the battle against the Mengeshans and saw dozens of prominent noblemen killed, their colorful dress making them obvious targets for the rifle-armed infantry. Thrown into disarray, the Mengeshans began to collapse under the pressure while Mengesha ordered his army to retreat, soon seeing his army fall apart entirely when Gugsa Welle sent in his own cavalry to mop up the enemy. While hundreds of rebel noblemen were captured and nearly fifteen thousand Mengeshan levies were killed, the commander himself was able to make his escape with his bodyguard, retreating to Gondar before continuing on to Tigray. However, before Gugsa Welle could follow up on the victorious Battle of Debre Zebit and finally crush his rival, word from the south arrived, Gugsa Araya Selassie and the modernists were marching for Addis Ababa (2).

    When word reached Harar of the skirmishes in the leadup to the Battle of Debre Zebit, the modernists decided to act. While Haile Selassie Gugsa was left behind to maintain order in the rear, his father having grown to greatly dislike Haile, Gugsa Araya Selassie mustered an army numbering nearly 60,000 and set out for Addis Ababa. As word of this reached Gugsa Welle, he suddenly came to the sudden realization that he had massively underestimated the modernists. Using the rise of the modernists, and particularly their widespread recruitment of Muslim levies, to drum up anti-Muslim sentiment amongst both Welleian and Mengeshan conservatives, Gugsa Welle was able to recruit massively from amongst the recently captured nobility, in the process recruiting nearly half of their levies and boosting his battle-hardened army to a full 80,000 men. While leaving Balcha Safo to mop up the remnants of the Mengeshan resistance, Gugsa Welle set out southward with the bulk of his army in a race against the modernists. Ultimately, it would be Gugsa Welle who arrived in the capital first, arriving barely two days before the modernists.

    The resultant two-month Siege of Addis Ababa saw the two sides dug in around the south-eastern edge of the city. Daily skirmishes occurred, but the majority of the fighting was left to the rifle-armed professional troops on the side of Gugsa Welle and Araya Selassie's German-armed elites trained by Haile Selassie Gugsa. As the fighting ground on, and the northern levies, many of whom had been in the field for nearly half a year, leaving their families to manage their subsistence farms by themselves, grew increasingly riotous in the face of a seemingly never-ending campaign. As the pressure grew to act for a conclusive action to end the conflict grew, Gugsa Welle began to consider his options. Ultimately it would be the ultra-conservative Ras Kassa Haile Darge, one of the most prominent of Gugsa Welle's original backers, who came with a solution to his leader's troubles. Leading a powerful force of cavalry on a long and dangerous march through the mountains south of Addis Ababa, Kassa Haile emerged on the plateau behind the modernists during the night of the 18th of July, sending a signal flair into the air to let Gugsa Welle know of their success.

    What followed was the Battle of Addis Ababa, fought on the 19th of July, which first saw Gugsa Welle's levies thrown forward against the modernist positions with the rifle-armed infantry in support to pin them in place before Kassa Haile launched a charge into the modernist rear. Caught by surprise, the modernists struggled to pull out while Araya Selassie was caught up in a pocket of resistance by the cavalry and killed. Taking over leadership of the army was Haille Selassie Gugsa's brother-in-law Desta Damtew, who sought to save what he could in the retreat, allowing most of the rifle-armed infantry, modern artillery and cavalry to make a retreat while sacrificing the predominately Muslim levies to slow the pursuit which followed. Hunted, the retreating army continued to shed men to rear-guard actions, desertions and exhaustion, finally straggling into Harar where Haile Selassie Gugsa had prepared defences to repel the pursuers. The death of his father paved a path for Haile Selassie Gugsa to take up leadership of the crisis-struck modernists, who were reeling from the defeat. However, Haile Selassie was able to whip up support for his leadership, silencing what little dissent existed to his authority, and turned to foreign powers for assistance, arranging a meeting with the Germans in Somaliland in hopes of negotiating aid against the surging conservatives.

    In the meanwhile a triumphant Gugsa Welle, believing his enemies totally defeated and having dispatched Kassa Haile to deal with the modernists as he had Balcha Safo to Tigray, retired to Addis Ababa after sending home the discontented levies and western noblemen as the work of rebuilding his crisis struck realm came under way. The first Gugsa Welle knew of the German entry into the civil war was the arrival of a panicked messenger on the 29th of August 1931 informing the putative Emperor that his pursuit force had been crushed by the sudden appearance of a foreign army. Armed with copious light tanks, airplanes, machine guns and portable artillery, the German Expeditionary Force had swept Kassa Haile's army before it like so much dust, with the modernists once again marching for Addis Ababa with renewed vigor, having secured a major shipment of arms from the Germans and recruited further forces from the increasingly depleted south.

    Gugsa Welle sought to muster his recently dispersed army at Addis Ababa, but by the time the modernists and their German allies had arrived before the city on the 13th of September he had only been able to scrounge up some 20,000 men in addition to the 10,000 men of the Central Imperial Army. This army proved insufficient to deal with the oncoming attackers, who used strafing airplanes, effectively impenetrable light tanks and machineguns to crush all opposition, with Gugsa Welle captured and executed by modernist forces under Haile Selassie Gugsa's command. The capture of Addis Ababa allowed Haile Selassie to declare himself Emperor, being crowned by a clergy at gunpoint as Negusa Nagast Haile Selassie I, even as the dispersed conservative nobility sought to form a scattered resistance to the suddenly victorious modernists, only to find their forces scattered by the wing of fighters purchased by Haile Selassie on credit and armed by German advisors and Ethiopian cadets.

    While German advisors were soon swarming to attend Haile Selassie's court, Seyoum Mengesha was trying to drum up support for another go at the crown, securing the backing of Balcha Safo, only to see his home base of Tigray overrun by modernist troops armed with German weapons. On the run and with his army shedding ever more support by the day, Mengesha would disappear into the countryside, making his way gradually westward over the following winter. When the German expeditionary force departed Ethiopia that following spring Mengesha and Balcha Safo would raise the banner of rebellion once more, this time in the province of Illubabor. However, this uprising would be put down within two weeks through the use of the aforementioned fighters and a rapid-action force of modernist cavalry, Mengesha finding himself forced to flee into the Saharan Desert, where after he disappeared from the historical record while Balcha Safo was captured, put on trial and executed. The Modernists had emerged victorious in the Ethiopian Civil War, but in the process had sold out their country entirely to the Germans, who soon took control of the country's foreign and trade policy, even as German industrial, political and military advisors found themselves welcomed into the Ethiopian court with open arms by Haile Selassie (3).

    Footnotes:
    (1) I am sorry about all the complicated names and the various royal branches, it gets quite complicated but hopefully people understood. There are four candidates to begin with - Gugsa Welle from Gondar in the north-west, the cousins Araya Selassie and Seyoum Mengesha from Tigray in the north-east split with the east under the former and the west under the latter (although Araya Selassie has a lot more support elsewhere due to his leadership of the modernists which he inherited from Tafari Makonnen) and Lij Iyasu who was from Shewa but whose support for Islam might have gained him support in the south had Haile Selassie Gugsa not killed him. From my read of prior succession struggles, they seem to be surprisingly easy-going as to the fate of the high nobility on the side of the loser - rather they preferred blinding, placing people into the church or sending them into exile over killing them when they didn't just pardon them or place them under house arrest (although there are a good number of claimants who ended up dying in battle). The death of Iyasu, while securing the south for the Modernists and with it connection to the outside world, severely damages the faction's standing amongst the nobility and results in their loss of support in more conservative regions in the north. This allows Seyoum Mengesha to really profit from this development, setting him up as the second largest contender to the throne and Gugsa Welle's greatest rival.

    (2) Ultimately, what decides who wins the clash between the conservatives is that Gugsa Welle has access to the modernized forces established by Ras Tafari Makonnen. The clashes are bloody, and particularly the levies pay heavily, but it is notable that the Battle of Debre Zebit sees the death of a large number of noblemen and an even larger number of nobles captured. While Mengesha is able to make his escape, his defeat is absolutely devastating and sees him reduced to his home province for support - and even here, there remain a good portion of the population more inclined towards Gugsa Araya Selassie than Seyoum Mengesha.

    (3) And so ends the effective independence of the last independent state in Africa. Gugsa Welle really seemed to have won it all, but the immense technological advantage which the Germans wield, as well as the support of a significant portion of the local population (although support for this foreign intervention was lukewarm at best even in modernist circles) really mean that he has little chance of success. Mengesha finds himself falling precipitously from major claimant to the throne, to little better than a back-country bandit. It is worth noting that the Germans don't actually have any military forces in Ethiopia outside of a concession in Addis Ababa and their various advisors. The relationship here is more like some of the early 1800s colonial relationships in India or Iran during the Great Game than anything like the total control exercised in much of the rest of Africa. Ethiopia is more like a client state of Germany than an out-and-out colony in other words.

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    Colonial Residents in British East Africa seek refuge in British enclaves​

    The British African Famines of 1931-35 were to strike the various parts of the British Empire in Africa with greatly varied degrees of impact, but nevertheless would play absolute havoc with British power and authority in Africa. At the heart of the crisis lay the aftermath of the 1925 US-UK Trade Agreement which had opened up the British colonies in Africa to American agricultural imports, serving as a safety valve for the grossly over-capacity American agricultural sector. However, in the process, local agricultural produce had seen a dramatic collapse in prices, putting most farmers above the level of subsistence out of business if they had not had the foresight to shift their production towards various cash crops. At the same time, the rural population of British Africa began to seek better opportunities on those emerging large cash-crop plantations, in the numerous mines or in the growing cities of British Africa, resulting in a sudden swelling of the urban populace, only sustainable in the short run due to the availability of cheap American produce.

    However, with the emergence of the drought known as the Dust Bowl in America beginning in the late 1920s and rapidly escalating over the first half of the 1930s, this ready supply of food stuffs began to shrink with uncommon rapidity, with the result that by the end of 1930 many major African towns and cities were experiencing intermittent food shortages, with some of the shortfall made up by purchasing from the large population of subsistence farmers dotted across British Africa and various other emergency measures. By 1931, the situation had grown particularly dire in British West Africa, with many Nigerian cities seeing major food shortages and the first inklings of famine.

    This was met with a relatively prompt and capable response by the colonial administration in the region, with the recently appointed Governor Sir Bernard Henry Bourdillon negotiating with local chiefs for a share of their produce and working to shift food from the relatively untouched northern provinces to the greatly impacted south. In the process Bourdillon demonstrated a surprising capacity for managing cross-communal relations, securing help from the Muslim North for the Christian South while working with the French colonial government in the neighboring colonial states to secure further famine relief. By the end of the year, the troubles in West Africa had largely been resolved with the death-count kept below 10,000 and a renewed colonial emphasis on local food production would largely make up the shortfall from America by late 1932.

    While West Africa had been the first afflicted it was also to prove the least impacted region of the British Empire in Africa after the Sudan. The region least reliant on American produce, the Sudan would instead be marked by the disruptions on its borders in both north and south which caused food shortages - the Ethiopian Civil War cutting Nilotic trade connections for several years while Egyptian warmongering saw relations between the Sudanese colonial administration and that in Egypt grow particularly frosty with a resultant drying up of cross-border trade. The fact that the vast majority of the populace lived as subsistence farmers or nomadic pastoralists meant that the impact of these shortages was largely limited to the few cities and towns in the region, with Khartoum experiencing intermittent food shortages between mid-1931 and mid-1933, although never to the point of causing a collapse in order or mass deaths. Western and Northern Africa thus escaped the crisis by and large. Instead, it would prove to be East and South Africa which were to be laid low by the crises which erupted during the first half of the 1930s (4).

    In order to understand the crisis in East Africa, it is necessary to understand how the leadership of the colony had governed the colony in the prior decade. The first colonial administrator of the post-war period had been Sir Horace Archer Byatt, whose approach had emphasised the revival of African institutions and the encouragement of limited local rule, a stance which was bitterly opposed by the Conservatives who were swift to appoint Sir Donald Cameron, Byatt's opposite in all regards including in colonial policy, to replace him. For the following eight years Cameron had overseen East African affairs, developing a system of more direct rule in place of local autonomy involving white settlers and, often Indian, administrators in an informal advisory council which helped him rule the colony. It was on the basis of recommendations from these figures that Cameron essentially tossed aside East Africa's own nascent food production industry in favor of massive cash-crop plantations run by white settlers. East Africa was marked by the savannah more than any of the other areas of British Africa, which left less of a subsistence farming population and more of a semi-nomadic pastoralist populace, who increasingly turned to cheap American animal feedstock and grew their precious herds to previously unimagined sizes, in the process putting a greater strain on the region's natural resources.

    Thus, when access to the American feedstock suddenly dipped, before collapsing in 1933, these massive herds were now forced to feed off the land, which soon saw entire swathes of land denuded in the rush to secure food for the herds. Before long, the herds began to run out of food and soon after began to die off in shocking numbers. This double blow, in which the countryside was denuded of animal feed and the subsequent mass die-out of the massive herds, sent shockwaves through the native populace, which suddenly found itself in deep crisis by the tail end of 1932. Tens of thousands migrated into the cities of the coast and the Nairobi region in the months that followed, bringing with them their mouths and stomachs, and little else. The result was a sudden and massive increase in the urban population just as American food exports reached their nadir, resulting in massive food shortages across the colony.

    While Cameron tried to resolve the crisis as best he could, he lacked the resources and friendly partners which had allowed West Africa to weather the storm, and as such even as the South Mesopotamia Famine was reaching its apex, the situation in East Africa was spinning increasingly out of control. Wave after wave of calamity struck, as a cruel cycle developed, reduced animal feed would result in deaths amongst the great cattle herds, which helped feed much of the population, which in turn led to a reduction in food availability. As food scarcity exploded and the animals on which countless tribes had built their wealth were culled to keep themselves from dying of starvation, unrest began to emerge. With pastoralist tribes suddenly losing their livelihood, they were forced to turn to urban migration or banditry.

    Kenya would be the focus of much of this strife, while the towns and cities of the coast, Nairobi region and Great Lakes region saw a massive influx of migrants. Nairobi could not handle this sudden influx, and soon saw massive food shortages and enormous population swings as mass die-offs were offset by new arrivals, while in the Great Lakes, the locals greeted the pastoralist newcomers with intense hostility, soon escalating to open violence. The coastal region, where food was more easily obtained, remained relatively peaceful but the interior was collapsing rapidly into chaos. As matters surrounding the Two Rivers Crisis and the South Mesopotamian Famine came under control over the first five months of 1933, the British were swift to rush the troops previously mobilised against the Ottomans south to East Africa to aid in pacification and famine relief efforts.

    During this time, the situation along the Great Lakes was turning from bad to worse, with what amounted to open war breaking out between the incoming pastoralists and their sedentary neighbours for control of local food resources, the region having been amongst those least reliant upon American produce due to the fertility of the region. The denuding of the western Kenya soon reached the point of desperation, with tens of thousands dying of sickness, starvation or violence as social structures began to collapse in on themselves. White Settler colonies, mines and plantations soon became targets of roving bandits, with the settlers fortifying their settlements with rifles and on rare occasions machineguns. Looted mass graves and instances of cannibalism were discovered in the slums of Nairobi by horrified British officials, who had to fight their way back out of the slums to safety in the British Quarters, which had itself been rapidly fortified and protected by British soldiery.

    When the British forces from Mesopotamia arrived, they found themselves inducted into the British Pacification Army in Kenya, commanded by Major General Sir Edward Northey, who was also named as Military Governor-General of Kenya, a man of noted racist tendencies and open brutality, Northey had nevertheless made a name for himself during the Great War and its aftermath before spending the last decade as administrator of Zanzibar, where he had been unable to make too much trouble. His appointment, occurring during the tumultuous political circumstances following the Two Rivers Crisis in Britain, was decided by the colonial office without much input from the distracted government and was to shape the response on a fundamental level. Northey came in with the sole goal of restoring order, cost what it may, and in doing so utterly obliterated any strictures, cultural, legal or social, which stood in his way. After settling the coastal region over the course of the remainder of 1933, Northey advanced into the hellish central and western parts of Kenya, putting down any opposition to his advance with force and placing the pastoralist population into massive camps where they could be fed more easily with imported produce from India. This would lead to the dissolution of many tribal bonds, as little attention was given to ethnic, cultural or religious divides amongst the interned, and a great deal of suffering as the starved internees were put to forced labor to help rebuild the colony.

    By the middle of 1934 the worst of the unrest had largely been quelled outside of the Great Lakes Region, which took another half a year to pacify, with tens of thousands killed in the brutal process. Northey relied heavily on White Settler outposts to help administer the reconstruction of the colony, doling out internees to various settlements for aid in their work. This mass usage of forced labor for everything from plantation and mine work to the building of railways and the establishment of villages for the pastoralists - who were now forced into sedentary life by the colonial administration, eventually drew protest in London, with Northey and his horrific regime finally brought to an end in 1935. However, by then the damage had been done. Tribes, ethnic groups, religious groups and linguistic groupings had been torn apart and hammered together with little regard for such differences, with even families torn from each other and settled at seeming random, often across the country from each other. Pastoralist life was greatly weakened, with the majority eventually making their way north or south to the neighboring German colonies while an implacable hatred had been sown between the original sedentary population of the Great Lakes and the former pastoralists who had fled to the region in search of safety from the cataclysm only to be met by fire and blood (5).

    South Africa had always been amongst the most troubled of the dominion relations within the British Empire, from powerful and influential native peoples such as the Zulu and Xhosa, to the ever rebellious Dutch-descended Afrikaner population and complicated racial structures, but these troubles would pale in comparison to the horrors of the South African Famine. There were three major factors which played into the defeat of Jan Smuts' liberal South African Party in the 1924 elections, his harsh suppression of the Rand Rebellion by White miners, his failure to secure the incorporation of South Rhodesia to South Africa and his lukewarm support for a more independent path for South Africa. This allowed for the ascendancy of the conservative National Party in coalition with the Labour Party, which had turned on Smut's South African Party over the handling of the Rand Rebellion. Together these two parties set about creating the foundations of an Afrikaner welfare state through a wide range of social and economic measures aimed at unifying Afrikaner support behind the government.

    In 1928 the Labour Party entered into a period of considerable crisis as Walter Madeley, a prominent left-wing Labour MP and Minister of Posts, Telegraphs and Public Works, called for the recognition of the Industrial and Commercial Workers' Union, which had non-white members. This greatly angered the National Party leadership, the recent Fall of Siberia greatly increasing anti-Communist sentiment on the right, and led them to demand that Madeley resign. This led to a major internal conflict in the Labour Party, which culminated in Madeley being removed from his post at the direction of the party leader, Frederic Creswell, in the process firmly aligning the Labour Party behind a policy of White nationalism while drawing the party closer to the National Party in the process. However, this effort was to meet with considerable opposition from within the Labour Party, even as Walter Madeley continued to protest this course of events. Greatly angered by these developments, Madeley would reach out to the Communist Party of South Africa to declare his membership, becoming their first Member of Parliament in the process. Many of Madeley's supporters would follow suit, joining the CPSA as well. The sudden emergence of the CPSA as a political force came as a great shock to the rest of the political parties, who were further scandalised when the CPSA recognised the Industrial and Commercial Workers' Union, as well as a range of other multi-race trade unions, and opened up the party to non-White South Africans as part of a general policy of "Africanising" the party.

    The 1929 elections were to see the return of the South African Party to government under Jan Smuts, as the National Party's coalition partners, the Labour Party, saw a precipitous collapse in support. During these middle years, the National Party government had opened up the economy to American imports, particularly of produce, as not only a cheap solution to feeding their rapidly expanding population, but also as a way of opening up a path for South African participation in the world economy outside of British influence. In general, South Africa experienced a period of incredible growth during the 1920s, which was further spurred on by the weakening of tariff barriers which allowed trade between South Africa and the United States to expand massively during the latter half of the 1920s, with the incredible wealth dug out of the ground helping to fuel the luxurious lifestyles of the New York and Washington elite. The newly elected South African Party would seek to further encourage these developments by removing much of what they viewed as excess governmental assistance, particularly for the agricultural sector where policies like high import taxes on all butter sales, preferential railway tariffs for famers and low-interest loans from the Land Bank all served to protect farmers against international competition while greatly increasing the cost of living for the average Afrikaner. The result was a further strengthening of industry and resource extraction companies at the cost of the farming population and an associated drastic lowering of the cost of living, which proved quite popular in urban areas. While the rise of the CPSA did cause considerable tensions, peace was maintained for the first few years of the new decade (6).

    Ultimately, the horrors of the South African Crisis would have less to do with the actual food supply which, while significantly impacted, never quite reached the devastating levels experienced in East Africa. Instead, it would be social, cultural and racial divisions which caused the greatest strife in the region. The heart of the crisis would lay in the Transvaal, where racial tensions between Whites and Blacks were worst and the mining industry was at its most expansive. South Africa was amongst the last of the regions in Africa to begin relying on large amongst of American produce, with the majority going to the coastal cities and to the great mining settlements of the Transvaal while the remainder of the dominion was largely unimpacted. Thus, the first place struck by food shortages were the Transvaal's mining settlements, which were able to alleviate much of the immediate stress in 1931 and 1932 by switching to purchasing local agricultural produce. However, this resulted in the spiking of food prices, which disproportionately impacted the black miners of the Transvaal who were payed significantly worse than their white counterparts.

    As the food supply worsened, while the quality worsened and the price rose dramatically, discontent began to make itself known. This was further amplified by the presence of recently trained CPSA agitators, crying out for the miners to lay down their picks and shovels in strike until proper food could be supplied - the number of miners collapsing from a lack of energy, with some even dying, having increased with worrying rapidity since 1930. By early 1933, as the height of summer struck and the mines turned into little better than furnaces, the number of dying miners rose to the dozens in individual mines with considerable worries that more would follow before the end of summer. Finally, on the 16th of January, the black miners had had enough, beginning work stoppages which soon spread to engulf the entire mining sector and threatened to draw sympathy strikes in many other, equally troubled sectors. The Second Rand Rebellion was now under way.

    While negotiations were initially considered, the fact that the vast majority of the strikers were black led the government to press for the squashing of the rebellion without much more thought given to the matter. However, the Rand was not only manned by black miners, there was a considerable population of white miners in the region who felt that their black fellow miners had stolen their work and had displaced their white colleagues from numerous lucrative mines. Largely members of the Labour Party, these white miners saw in the Second Rand Rebellion a chance to reclaim their dominance of the Rand mines. Thus, when government forces began to move on the demonstrators, they found their efforts assisted by angry white miners with little interest in allowing the black miners back to work. The result was a bloodbath, as the predominantly white soldiers mostly sat back and allowed armed white miners to do their work for them. Protesters were shot out of hand, quickly spilling over onto anyone black in proximity of a mine before spreading to the nearby townships, with bloodshed escalating rapidly. However, the black miners were not to take this lying down, and before long the black and white miners were butchering each other with astonishing brutality with the army largely sitting on the sidelines perplexed and uncertain about how to resolve the situation.

    This escalation in violence soon drew in local tribes from whom many of the black miners had originally come. It was at this point that the army began to act, attacking tribes as they began to cause trouble, driving them back into the Veldt. It was at this point that the crisis truly began to spin out of control, with the claimant King of the Zulu Kingdom, Solomon kaDinuzulu, speaking out against the violence, urging black South Africans to resist oppression. While officially only one chieftain amongst many in Zulu country, Solomon was widely acknowledged amongst the Zulu themselves, and his call to arms was answered by them in their tens of thousands. Attacks on white settlers and settlements exploded over the first couple months of 1933 while Afrikaners in the Transvaal turned back to their roots as commandoes, forming local defence forces and commando units with which to suppress the riotous black populace.

    Bloodshed escalated rapidly, leaving the administration in Cape Town scrambling to find a solution to the crisis. Jan Smuts replaced the commanders of the military forces in the Transvaal, in hopes of securing more effective action, but the fact that both the Afrikaner and Black population was proving increasingly hostile to government forces caused major headaches in government circles. The conflict even threatened to tear the National Party apart, as the majority of the party rallied around the former Prime Minister J.B.M. Hertzog to support the government effort and call for an end to the violence amongst the Afrikaners, while the much more radical church minister and MP Daniel F. Malan called on the government to aid the Afrikaner populace in protecting themselves from rapacious black attackers and threatened to break with the National Party if they should fail to support their brethren in the Transvaal, in effect paralyzing the party.

    The violence and anarchy spread throughout 1933 and soon began to reverberate across South Africa, with the Cape Colony in particular struck by sudden resource shortages as a result of the Transvaal mines shuddering to a halt. This led to mass layoffs and rapid increases in unemployment, which in turn drew great condemnation and anger, threatening to turn into open protests. However, beginning in 1934 with the arrival of considerable British aid, the situation was stabilised in the Cape Colony, which in turn allowed the government to finally begin restoring order in the Free State and Transvaal over the course of the following two years.

    In the aftermath of the crisis, renewed elections would see the return of the National Party, this time as sole ruling party and on a significantly more rabidly segregationist platform. The most troublesome tribes in the east, most prominently several of the larger Zulu and Xhosa-speaking tribes, were to be split up and moved to South-West Africa, where they were mixed together and settled into small villages in an effort to gradually break up the tribal and ethnic identities of these troublesome tribes. At the same time a comprehensive new series of racial segregation laws were passed and strict controls on the remaining tribes were put into place while a series of anti-labour laws were passed by the horrified parliament which saw the right to strike, the formation of independent unions and much else largely restricted. The fact that the South African Party had been forced to turn to the British for aid was to leave a major stain on the party which ultimately led to its dissolution in 1937, while Jan Smuts retreated from politics, spending most of his time writing about his experiences, researching and writing a comprehensive history of South Africa and serving as advisor to various political protégés (7).

    Footnotes:

    (4) We start out with a bit of a repeat of some of the stuff previously mentioned in regards to British Africa before examining the regions where the African Famine had the least impact, namely West Africa and Sudan. It is important to make a note of the fact that West Africa has the largest portion of subsistence farmers, and is the most fertile of all these areas, and as such is able to find alternate food sources relatively easily. The weight of the crisis also very much impacts the relatively small urban populace, primarily in the Niger River Delta, and as such is much more contained than elsewhere. Even then, we still see nearly 10,000 deaths before the situation is brought under control.

    (5) I do apologize for how grim all of this ended up getting, but I felt that it would be fascinating to see the sorts of unintended consequences something like a careless trade agreement can have. Famines were relatively rare in Africa for much of the 20th century, but I feel that the circumstances line up enough for it to remain a plausible direction for events to go. Cameron probably comes off worse than he deserves, considering he IOTL as Governor of Tanganyika largely championed a more inclusive approach, even if he is noted as having been a major critic of Byatt's openness towards the local population IOTL. Here he remains a staunch opponent to Byatt's policies, but given that Kenya/East Africa has a greater British settler population than Tanganyika I could see him relying more heavily on the settlers for support. Northey is an OTL racist asshole who IOTL tried to coerce African labor to work on European-owned farms and estates even after the Colonial Office had rejected such a plan, with him eventually getting dismissed for going through with it. Here he is basically given free rein to restore order to East Africa - with horrific consequences.

    (6) I ended up needing to do quite a bit of background to prepare for the crisis that follows, but I hope that people find these divergences interesting. The major change here is that instead of the Labour Party cracking in two between Madeley and Creswell, with Labour on Madeley's side, here Creswell is able to secure stronger backing from the party to remove Madeley from his position. This is a result of the changes to the Communist movement, which, as elsewhere, is a lot more inclusive than IOTL and as such is an easier destination for Madeley to depart for than it was IOTL. The CPSA entering onto an "Africanising" path is also OTL and was adopted as policy in the late 1920s. This loss of support on the part of Labour, beyond strengthening the Communists, also has the important role of boosting the South African Party back into leadership - preventing the OTL total dominance exhibited by the National Party until World War Two. This also means a change in policy with the new government, which decides to pursue a decidedly less interventionist policy and most importantly greatly deprioritizes that farming sector in favor of business and industry. It is worth noting here that the South African Party draws most of its support from the urban populace, particularly the business elites, and of the various major parties in South Africa is the most willing to work with the British. The National Party by contrast is right-wing and strongly tied to both Afrikaner Nationalism - although lacking the inherent distrust of the left-wing exhibited by most right-wing parties of the time. The National Party-Labour alliance is actually all OTL.

    (7) And we are done with the nightmare. This was not particularly pleasant to write about, but I do think that it is fascinating to consider what an even more antagonistic set of race relations in South Africa would have looked like, particularly in the first half of the century. This is before Apartheid was instituted as government policy and in a time when South Africa was coming into its own, developing its national identity. The South African Crisis of the 1930s shakes all of that up and allows me to explore this part of the world. IOTL, this period is something of a golden period from what I have been able to read up on it where things seemed relatively under control, economic prosperity grew and firm social structures began to develop even as South African national culture was emerging after the Boer Wars. By contrast, ITTL the period will be known as a defining national crisis which reshaped the political, social and economic spectrum on a fundamental level. I will finish off by mentioning that King Solomon of the Zulu ends up being amongst those dispatched to South-West Africa in exile.

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    Jean Price-Mars, President of Haiti

    A Cruise Through The Caribbean​

    The two troubled nations of Hispaniola, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, had both come under American occupation soon after the start of the Great War, Haiti in 1914 and the Dominican Republic in 1915. While the Dominican occupation had primarily been triggered by American exasperation with the tumultuous political situation in the country, in Haiti the presence of a small but powerful German minority and their potential role in creating a German-aligned base in the Caribbean had played into decision-making as much as the ongoing political turmoil. The occupations were wildly unpopular with broad swathes of the populace in not only the two occupied nations, but within the United States itself, where many questioned the need for the intervention and the considerable costs it brought with it.

    From the start, the occupations were fiercely resisted with the gavilleros in the Dominican Republic and cacos of Haiti each causing considerable trouble. While in the Dominican Republic this resistance would continue to trouble the occupiers, with constant attacks and anger from the population, in Haiti resistance was crushed with shocking violence in two "Caco Wars" which combined saw several thousand dead. The American treatment of the two states also differed considerably, with the Americans far more open to cooperating with the local Dominicans, whose racial mixture was far more varied than the almost exclusively African-descended population of Haiti, with the result that even President Wood, otherwise a pretty stalwart supporter of American efforts abroad, was convinced of ending the occupation of the Dominican Republic with speed. This process, which saw the effective occupation ended in 1921, would culminate in the 1924 election of the pro-American Horacio Vásquez Lajara.

    Matters in Haiti, by contrast, were to prove considerably more troubled. In 1915 the US Senate had ratified the Haitian-American Convention which granted the United States security and economic oversight of Haiti for the next decade while giving American Representatives veto-power over all governmental decisions and appointing Marine Corps commanders to serve as administrators of Haitian government departments, although local institutions remained under Haitian rule. This allowed the American occupiers to re-institute a system of corvée labor, forced civil conscription in which Haitian civilians were captured and forced to work on the numerous public infrastructure projects begun by the American occupation.

    The end of the Great War was to introduce a much welcomed international dimension to the occupation, as the German Empire began to lodge protests with the American government for their actions taken against the German minority population of Haiti, specifically the confiscation of their businesses, which at the time of the occupation had been responsible for 80% of Haiti's international trade.

    Thus, with international lines of communications opening up once more and the protests of the German Haitians streaming in to the Foreign Ministry, German diplomats began to exert pressure on the Marshall, and later Wood and McAdoo presidencies for the ending of their occupation, a restoration of the plundered wealth of the German Haitians and various other matters. While President Wood remained forceful in his opposition to any such suggestions about ending the occupation of Haiti, the same could not be said of the incumbent President McAdoo, who had come into office on a promise of ending foreign entanglements such as Haiti. The result was that when the 1915 Haitian-American Convention came up for renewal in 1925, President McAdoo campaigned against its re-ratification, ultimately allowing it to lapse, returning authority to the American-selected President Louis Borno. At the same time the Americans payed out a cash settlement to the German Haitians which, while far less than the worth of their confiscated businesses, allowed them to reestablish themselves as part of the Port-au-Prince elite, a status further solidified by the arrival of more German businessmen eager to make inroads into the recently independent state.

    Independence brought with it an end to the hated Corvée labor and a reopening of Haiti to the world market, with the various European countries soon streaming in to make their presence known. However, the American occupation had allowed them to take control of the largest share of the pie, dominating more than 90% of all international trade out of the island nation and granting them important supporters in all major government departments. Fears of another American invasion played havoc with the Haitian populace which in 1928 saw the election of a fiercely anti-foreigner candidate in the form of the immensely popular Jean Price-Mars (8).

    A doctor, teacher, diplomat, writer and ethnographer, Jean Price-Mars was deeply impacted by the occupation and was inspired by the constant active resistance of Haiti's peasants. Over time he had come to embrace the African roots of Haitian society as a part of the wider Négritude movement by championing the practice of Vodou as a full religion. He argued against the prevailing prejudices and ideologies of the Haitian elites, which favored European cultures from the colonial period while rejecting all non-white, non-western elements of their culture. In the process Price-Mars had begun to formulate a form of African-Haitian Nationalism which identified the Haitian cultural identity with the African struggle against slavery, harkening back to the island's proud stand against the French in their bloody revolution, while denigrating the mostly mixed-race elites for their inability to promote the welfare of the wider Haitian populace.

    Price-Mars' rise to power came on the backs of the firmly black peasantry and a segment of the mixed-elite who had come to embrace Price-Mars' and other Negritude writers' belief in the African nature of Haiti. Price-Mars aimed to reorient Haitian society away from the long-dominant mixed-race elites of Port-au-Prince and towards the more firmly black working and peasant class. As a result he began passing a series of major legislative proposals which would work towards redistributing wealth within Haiti while exploiting the intense infrastructure construction conducted under the occupation to help tie the country closer together. He had Vodou recognized as a religion on equal footing with the Catholic Church, to the utter horror of the Port-au-Prince elite, and sought to favour the German Haitian minority as the government's window to the outside world, in the process hoping to create a second pole of foreign influence to play off against the Americans. By 1930, Price-Mars found himself so intensely unpopular with the mixed-race elite and his fears of assassination so great that he chose to move government operations to the town of Ganthier some thirty kilometres east of Port-au-Prince, where his supporters greatly outnumbered his detractors.

    During this period the Dominican Republic had remained relatively peaceful under the leadership of Lajara, however in 1930 he set out to secure a second term of office and was soon betrayed by his own Chief of Police Rafael Leonidas Trujillo Molina who, in coordination with a rebel leader by the name of Rafael Estrella Urena launched a coup which saw Urena appointed acting president and Trujillo as head of police and the army. As per the agreement between Urena and Trujillo, the latter became the presidential nominee of their newly formed party with Urena as his running mate. However, in order to secure victory, Trujillo unleashed the army on his opponents, forcing them to withdraw from the race, and in May of 1930 was elected as President of the Dominican Republic virtually unopposed. The ascension of Trujillo and Price-Mars laid the seeds for a growing confrontation between the two states of Hispaniola.

    During the initial period of government under Trujillo, he was able to significantly strengthen his grip on power, rebuilding the Dominican capital after it was devastated by the Hurricane San Zenon bare weeks after his ascension, while renaming the capital after himself. In 1931 Trujillo made the Dominican Party, of which he was head, the nation's sole legal party and forced government employees to "donate" ten percent of their salaries to the national treasury. He murdered opponents of his government and allowed for the arrest of people caught without a party membership card. Finally, in 1934 Trujillo had himself promoted to Generalissimo of the army and secured re-election as the sole candidate on the ballot while seeking to build up a cult of personality. It was during this time that Trujillo truly began his campaign of Antihaitianismo which was effectively a brand of anti-Black discrimination targeting the Haitian minority in the Dominican Republic and the Afro-Dominican citizenry, while the government heavily favored white migrants and refugees, soon becoming a favoured destination amongst White Russians, Serbians and Ukrainian Jews, who proved eager to help build up the republic.

    In Haiti, the mixed-race elites of Port-au-Prince finally made their move in late 1931 when a contingent of soldiers trained by the Americans and headed by mixed-race officers launched an attack on Ganthier, gunning down any who stood in their way as they sought to capture the Haitian president. However, Price-Mars had been expecting something like this for a while and had plenty of caco fighters at the ready, who soon swarmed the relatively small attacking force and butchered them to the last man. Price-Mars now turned to Port-au-Prince, mustering a massive if rag-tag force of cacos who descended on Port-au-Prince with the aim of purging the city of traitors. Ultimately, a significant portion of the mixed-race elites would find themselves forced to flee into the reluctantly welcoming embrace of the Americans. Debate over whether to take actions to reinstitute the occupation were brought up in the US Senate, but floundered in the face of bitter partisanship and disinterest in the issue.

    Thus, the nation fell fully into Price-Mars' hands with his government now further enriched by the confiscation of the considerable fortunes of the exiled elites. Over the following years, Price-Mars would continue in his efforts to develop an authentic Black Haitian nation state, railing against the Americans and Dominicans for the most part, while quietly developing ever strengthening ties to the Germans, who he viewed as sufficiently distant and disinterested in Haitian affairs to merit cooperation with. During this time, Price-Mars drew close with Jacques Roumain, one of the many mixed-race elite who had turned his back on his wealthy background, although in Roumain's case he had turned to communism. Price-Mars, while distrustful of foreign, European, ideas found much of interest in communist writings and soon began to adopt elements thereof - particularly building on the village-based communal structures developed by the Muscovite Communists. While never particularly clear about his particular political affiliations, Price-Mars would gradually come to adopt more and more of the ideas espoused by Roumain, who rose to become Price-Mars' vice-president following his victory in the 1933 elections. Notably, Price-Mars would spend much of his time in the city of Cap-Haitien, preferring it over the mixed-race dominated Port-au-Prince. Finally, in 1937 the tensions between Haiti and the Dominican Republic began to boil over when Trujillo dispatched orders to the Dominican military to clear out the Haitians in Dominican lands with violence (9).

    Cuba had been a nation inextricably tied to the United States since its War of Independence at the dawn of the century. Since then the country had gone through two separate periods of occupation by the Americans, considerable political turmoil and, in 1917, and a brief civil war between Liberal and Conservative Parties triggered when the Conservatives were faced with defeat in the 1916 elections to the Liberals. This conflict, which initially seemed to be playing out entirely in Liberal favour after the initial Conservative coup attempt failed, was forced to a close by the Americans under threat of armed intervention, with the Americans restoring the Conservative Garcia Menocal to government despite his electoral losses due to suspected pro-German sympathies in Liberal ranks.

    Despite this turmoil, Cuba came out of the Great War Period in relatively good standing, as artificially boosted sugar prices brought about by sugar scarcity allowed for considerable economic growth in Cuba. However, the moment that the war came to an end and international trade rebounded, the price of sugar cratered. Cuba's economy was build almost entirely on the sugar industry, and as such this sudden collapse in prices was to send the country into bankruptcy by the time of the 1920 elections. This time it was a major Liberal figure of the 1917 civil war, Alfredo Zayas, who took power. Zayas spent his four years in power on advancing women's rights, including securing them the right to vote, and conducting reforms in the fields of education and social security, allowed freedom of the press without censorship, secured the return of the Islas de Pinos, which had been occupied by the United States since 1898, and obtained a loan of fifty million US Dollars from J.P. Morgan with the aim of relaunching the devastated economy he had inherited.

    However, Zayas and his government would find themselves dogged by charges of corruption, up to and including the President himself. Since 1913, when Zayas had ceased to be Vice President of the Republic, he had designated himself as an official historian of Cuba with the decadent salary of 500 pesos a month, while during his tenure, he won first prize in the National Lottery twice. He gave free play to other vices, engaging himself in the smuggling of alcohol to Prohibition-Era America while maintaining a web of influence in all government offices. By the end of his term, Zayas' personal fortune had grown to several million pesos, making him amongst the richest men on the island. By 1923, many of the island's intellectuals had seen enough and published a public letter of protest, which came to be known as the Protest of the Thirteen - which ultimately sank Zayas' chances at a second term. Instead, Zayas turned to his comrade-in-arms from the 1917 crisis and ally in government, Gerardo Machado, to succeed him.

    In the following 1924 elections Machado was able to emerge victorious, defeating Zayas' old rival Menocal in the process. It is worth noting at this point that beginning in 1923 the price of sugar began to rally, allowing the Cuban economy to slowly gather steam once more, fueled both by the increasing sugar prices and the loan Zayas had secured from J.P. Morgan. Machado would prove himself a considerably more popular figure than Zayas or Menocal, coming to power on the notion of turning Cuba into the "Switzerland of the Americas". The new government tried to reconcile the interests of the different sectors of the national bourgeoisie and the American capital in its economic program, offering guarantees of stability to the middle classes and new jobs to the lower classes. Its economic program focused on the reduction of investments, a policy of reducing the sugar harvest to stimulate depressed sugar prices in the world market, and a tariff reform which raised the price on foreign products that could be produced in Cuba.

    The increase in sugar prices brought with it an increase in foreign, particularly American, investments which allowed the Machado government to embark on an ambitious pubic works program which saw the construction of the Central Highway of Cuba, which was to run across practically the entire island from east to west, saw the construction of El Capitolio, the new home of the Cuban Congress, and the expansion of the University of Havana to mention but a few of the numerous building projects undertaken under Machado.

    However, while Machado had pledged to not seek a second term, which was prohibited by the 1901 Constitution, this state of affairs did not last for long, and by 1927 Machado was pushing through a series of constitutional amendments which would allow him to seek re-election, allowing him to secure a second term in the 1928 elections. However, Machado's growing shift towards authoritarianism was met with bitter resistance, most prominently by the University Student Directory of the University of Havana, which had formed in 1927 in response to his constitutional changes. The following years saw numerous protests led by the Student Directory and the assassination of several student leader by Machadista gun-men while others were driven into exile, with the University of Havana itself being shut down temporarily in 1930 to quell the resistance. While the student leaders sought to whip up outrage at the government's treatment, they were largely met with shocking indifference if not hostility, as many of their elders came to believe that the riotous students posed a threat to the continued prosperity of the island.

    By 1931 it had become clear that Machado had succeeded in his goals of securing power while pacifying the country through economic prosperity. In 1932 Machado negotiated an end to the bitterly hated Platt Amendment which had allowed constant American interference in Cuban affairs while continuing to strengthen his hold on power. He would secure re-election once again in 1933, at which point he began a more extensive adoption of Portuguese Integralist principles, with the aim of securing his position at the head of the Cuban nation for years to come (10).

    The Post-Great War period was to prove a time of considerable development and change for the African-descended population of the Americas, connecting together a web of black ideologues from Harlem and New Orleans to Le Cap, Kingston and Paris itself. At the heart of these developments lay Harlem, on the isle of Manhattan in New York. The Harlem Renaissance and subsequent movements grew out of the changes that had taken place in the African-American community since the abolition of slavery, most notably the mass migration of African Americans out of the south, the rise of the Ku Klux Klan as a major force in American society and the need for African Americans to shape an understanding of their role in society, as Americans, as Africans and as African Americans.

    Playwriters, authors, preachers, musicians and artists of all sorts contributed to a feverish cultural ferment in which the racist stereotypes which pervaded much of society were challenged by works of art, music and literature emphasising Pan-African pride and capability. The migration of southern Blacks to the north had changed the image of the African American from rural, undereducated peasant to one of urban, cosmopolitan sophistication. This new identity led to a greater social consciousness, as African Americans became players on the world stage, expanding intellectual and social contacts internationally. The progress, both symbolic and real, during this period became a point of reference from which the African-American community gained a spirit of self-determination that provided a growing sense of both Black urbanity and Black militancy. The urban setting of rapidly developing Harlem provided a venue for African Americans of all backgrounds to appreciate the variety of Black life and culture. Through this expression, the Harlem Renaissance encouraged the new appreciation of folk roots and culture. For instance, folk materials and spirituals provided a rich source for the artistic and intellectual imagination, which freed Blacks from the establishment of past conditions. Through sharing in these cultural experiences, a consciousness sprung forth in the form of a united racial identity (11).

    While originating in Harlem, it was not long before black students and scholars from across the world began to flock to Harlem in search of help in developing their own intellectual traditions. One such tradition would prove to be the Négritude movement, which was initially assembled in Paris but soon developed a second heart in the Haitian city of Le Cap, which gradually took on increasingly Communist and militantly African nationalist elements and fell under the sway of Jean Price-Mars. Another intellectual tradition came in the form of the New Orléans Renaissance, a development spurred on by Huey Long's willingness to defend the black and mixed population of Louisiana against discrimination. Here, in the swamps of the Mississippi Delta, a distinct cultural movement came under way, far less willing to adopt the dress and manners of northern whites, as they accused the Harlem Renaissance of doing, and rather more closely connected to the Caribbean movements out of Jamaica and Haiti. While willing to cooperate and participate in American society and culture, the New Orléanisan movement drew a sharp line between themselves and their white neighbours, holding that while segregation was harmful to the development of the African spirit due to the inherent inequalities it fostered, it was necessary that Black America be allowed to develop on an independent path from that of White America.

    These concurrent cultural and social movements would take on a variety of different tacks and adopt an often confusing profusion of positions on various issues, with each movement split amongst itself in turn as well. The Harlem movement borrowed much from the White Progressive movement of the time, most advocating for integration and the breaking down of segregationist barriers, viewing themselves as American citizens who wished to remain part of the United States. At the opposite end of the spectrum lay the Le Cap Négritude movement, which was fiercely black nationalist in outlook, rejecting any idea of living alongside Whites, and ever searching for ways in which to grow closer to the African Spirit, be it through Vodou, Jazz or pilgrimages to Africa.

    Between these two poles lay the other movements : The Garveyites of Jamaica, the New Orléanians and Parisian Négritudes most prominently, of which the first would prove itself most significant. The Garveyites were adherents of the Jamaican thinker Marcus Garvey, who had initially risen to fame and prominence as part of the Harlem movement, where he established the Universal Negro Improvement Association and African Communities League, the UNIA. Garvey emphasized the unity between Africans and the African diaspora, campaigning widely against European colonial rule in Africa and promoting the political unification of the continent. However, he soon found himself in trouble with the mainstream Harlem movement as his plans for Africa after liberation fell increasingly into Integralist lines of thought, envisioning a united Africa under a one-party state rule in which he would govern as President of Africa.

    In sharp contrast to mainstream Harlemites he doubled down on segregation, believing that a liberated Africa would need to enact laws to ensure Black racial purity, and committing firmly to the Back-to-Africa movement, arguing that African-Americans should migrate either to Africa or to Black-dominated states like Jamaica or Haiti rather than remain in a White-dominated America. However, Garvey soon fell from grace in Harlem, when he was convicted of fraud under dubious circumstances and imprisoned in Atlanta from 1923-25, before being deported to Jamaica in 1927. In Jamaica Garvey worked to rebuild his following, developing a chapter of the UNIA and founding the first Jamaican political party in the form of the People's Political Party in 1929. Garvey would meet on several occasions with President Jean Price-Mars of Haiti, cooperating with him and the Le Cap Négritudes to support the development of black-led nations and championing independence for Jamaica, although by the early 1930s the two men would fall out over their diverging political alignments.

    During the first half of the 1930s, the Back-to-Africa movement experienced considerable ideological turmoil as the collapse of the greatly admired state of Ethiopia into civil war and eventual client status to Germany shook belief in Ethiopianism to its core. Many thinkers were to interpret this development as evidence of the loss of God's favor and the need for a spiritual and moral rebirth before Africa could be reclaimed from the imperialist powers. It was during this time that Gugsa Welle, the Last African Lion as he would be known, became the subject of deification and cult worship - portrayed as a martyr for the cause of a Free Africa. This was set side by side with the development of a functioning black-ruled state in Haiti, and saw Jean Price-Mars elevated to a status similar to that of Gugsa Welle in some circles. Despite the hardships and differences experienced within and between the various Black movements of the time, the 1920s and 30s were a time of great cultural and social development for the African-descended population of the Caribbean and America (12).

    Footnotes:
    (8) For the most part this is all OTL up until the 1920s where the Post-War divergences begin to play into events. Events in the Dominican Republic largely proceed as per OTL, although there are some minor divergences in the timing of events. It is in Haiti where we see the larger divergence. IOTL it would take until 1934 for Haiti to restore its independence, during which time the country continued to utilise corvée labor. Here, the continued presence of Germany as an international power really comes into play, with the small German merchant population in Port-au-Prince playing a key role in drumming up the German Foreign Ministry to press the Americans on Haitian affairs. This pressure, combined with the fact that the occupation was never particularly popular in the United States to begin with, ultimately result in the occupation coming to an end significantly earlier. At the same time we see the growth of anti-foreign, particularly anti-American, sentiment in the aftermath of the occupation and eventually an earlier rise of the black working class of Haiti significantly earlier than IOTL.

    (9) To be honest, basically everything mentioned in the Dominican sections of this update are OTL, except for the fact that without the rise of anti-Semitism in Germany Trujillo is forced to rely on other groups of white settlers to help build up the white population of his side of the island. I cut off just before the OTL Parsley Massacre because that is when things are really going to begin going off the rails of OTL, something I will be saving for a different update.

    The developments in Haiti by contrast are of a significantly different tune than OTL. Price-Mars has elements of the OTL Duvalier dynasty's emphasis on black Haitian culture, but lacks their bloody-fisted tyrannical personality or approach. He is more of a scholarly ideologue than anything, who has succeeded in hitting on a particularly powerful brand of black nationalism, which he uses as a cudgel against the mixed-race elites, and finds the whole idea of dictatorial rule rather sordid. He maintains what proves to be a semi-functioning democracy, even if his governing party retains a super-dominant position after kicking out the former ruling elite and implementing a series of democratic reforms which grant universal suffrage, and in the process make the Black peasant and working classes the single most powerful force in politics. Notably, he does not fall into the pitfalls of totalitarianism. In fact, Haiti, particularly the city of Le Cap (Cap-Haitien), becomes a centre point for the Négritude movement and various other Afro-American movements, as we will get into later in this section.

    (10) The major divergence in Cuba is the lack of a Great Depression throwing the country into total turmoil. Thus, while Machado's power-grasping ways cause him to lose a good deal of popularity, the vast majority of the population remain supportive, simply wanting the good times to continue. This means that the student protests and revolts are far less aligned with the public interest, and as such they are unable to muster the general support they were able to develop IOTL, and largely fizzle out in the face of brutal repression by the government. This allows Machado to maintain power and to strengthen his hold on the country, whereas IOTL the student protests helped spur on a more general anti-Machado movement which eventually saw his removal from power and paved the path for the 1933 Revolt of the Sergeants which brought Fulgencia Batista to power originally, setting the stage for Cuba's long run of dictators. Machado's shift towards more authoritarian government sees him gradually abandon his Liberal roots in favor of a more Integralist political ideology, in which he fashions himself as Cuba's Sidonio.

    (11) Up to this point, this is basically a description of the OTL Harlem Renaissance movement's development.

    (12) There are a lot of divergences here which will take some work to explain. The four most important factors in these divergent developments are 1) the early end to the occupation of Haiti and rise of Jean Price-Mars 2) the lack of a Great Depression 3) the earlier Rise of Huey Long and 4) the death of Tafari Makonnen and subsequent Ethiopian Civil War.

    The first of these allows for the establishment of the Le Cap Négritudes as a much more significant movement than IOTL, shifting perceptions on what is and is not possible for African states in the Americas. The second of these allows the Harlem Renaissance to continue on without disruption, whereas IOTL it ended up losing a lot of credibility for its blind enthusiasm - which matched poorly with the Depression-era's rather, welll, depressive mentality. I have taken some liberties with Huey Long and assumed that he would be willing to shield an African American cultural movement from persecution if it gave him influence and prestige in black circles, which is what allows for the development of the New Orléanisans, who do not have an OTL counterpart. The fourth, and final, of these factors sees the butterflying of Rastafarianism as a major force and the partial collapse of the Back-to-Africa movement's emphasis on Ethiopia as some African idyll.

    I have here imagined that the various movements would begin to define themselves at least partially in opposition to each other, which is why the Harlemites end up much more strongly associated with the progressive movement, the Négritudes with National Socialism and Communism, the Garveyites with Integralism and the New Orléanisans with Longism. It is worth mentioning also that Garvey's ideas are all lifted from OTL, although ITTL he and the UNIA are much better off financially, which allows him to stay in Jamaica. Influenced by Jean Price-Mars and the Fall of Ethiopia, he also becomes a lot more interested in Jamaican Nationalism, possibly as a jumping-off point for his grand African ambitions. I largely left out much mention of the influence of the Ku Klux Klan's rise and the like, but do bear in mind that all of the other developments in American society are occurring alongside these and in contrast to them.

    End Note:
    This is a somewhat mixed bag of an update, some really dismal stuff and some hopeful developments. As ever, my inability to keep things simple whenever I come across an ideological or social movement pops up, with multiple different directions to the OTL Harlem Renaissance. I find it quite interesting to dig into these different figures to explore where they might have gone. Jean Price-Mars is particularly fascinating to me for the central role he played in making Vodou an effective religion and Marcus Garvey is impressive in his sheer ambition, for god's sake, the man declared himself President of Africa IOTL. Haile Selassie Gugsa shows us another path taken, mirroring his OTL betrayal of Ethiopia to the Italians with much greater success ITTL. Finally there are the grim developments in British Africa. I can't tell you how much thought and work went into making sure that it remained compelling without being a complete Vlad Tepes Award submission. The famines of the 1930s are going to be major defining developments for the course of history in particularly East Africa and South Africa, but I am happy to be past them. Was not a pleasant topic to write about or think about in detail.

    Oh, and with this update the TL crosses 500k words. Thank you everyone who has been willing to read through all that to this point. It means a lot.
     
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    Update Thirty-Four (Pt. 2): Between Dreams and Nightmares
  • Between Dreams and Nightmares

    Yrigoyen_en_ventanilla_del_ferrocarril_viaje_a_Santa_Fe_campa%C3%B1a_electoral_de_1926..jpg

    President Hipólito Yrigoyen of Argentina

    The Liberal, The Radical and the Socialist​

    The collapse of the Tenentist Regime in Brazil had the effect of turning Brazil into a fundamentally anarchic state. Government authority shrank precipitously, and in many cases disappeared entirely, with the result that much of the country was left entirely ungoverned and ungovernable. All of Brazil's neighbors would exert some level of influence across the Brazilian border, ranging from simply maintaining relations with local authorities to outright occupation. Brazilian claims to the Amazon were set aside, as Peru, Venezuala and many others expanded into the vacuum that had emerged. Thus, while Júlio Prestes and Washington Luís were able to establish themselves in Rio de Janeiro and gradually extended their control across the coastal provinces, the majority of the country remained in anarchy. The collapse and flight of the tenentists into the interior would allow for the development of some form of regional governmental authority as Luís Carlos Prestes and Antônio de Siqueira Campos worked in concert to reestablish the collapsed regime in Mato Grosso, developing ties with the Socialist Republic of Chile and asking for their aid in hopes of building up the interior as a counterpoint to the Old Republican forces.

    As the Old Republic began to reassert its authority over the south, it came into contact with a regional alliance of liberals and populists led by Osvaldo Aranha, the former right-hand man of Getulio Vargas - a prominent politician from Rio Grande do Sul who had emerged as a powerful political figure prior to and during the Tenentist Regime as an accepted but vocal opponent of the more radical tenentist policies, before dying in the chaos surrounding the collapse of the Tenentists. The unification of the far south, led by Aranha, with the Old Republic based in Minas Gerais and Sao Paolo in 1929 significantly strengthened the resurgent Old Republic but also introduced a new internal dynamic which was to characterize the reborn Old Republic - namely the divide between the urban, liberal and industrial southerners and the rural, conservative plantation-oriented Mineiros and Paulians. Furthermore, it also brought to a close the period of total dominance exerted by Júlio Prestes and Washington Luís over the Old Republic as not only southern liberals but also their fellow conservatives began to grow restless under the provisional government.

    With actual military might dispersed at the local level, the national military having been first weakened and then effectively dissolved during the Tenentist rise and fall, the government lacked any ability to really hold onto power when their backers began to demand an end to the provisional government. The result of these pressures was to be the hastily organized Brazilian Elections of 1930 in which a mishmash of regional parties with little true ideological differences were voted into power - Brazilian politics being of a distinctly regional rather than ideological nature under the Old Republican system. The presidency was handed over to the Paulista Washington Luís while Osvaldo Aranha was confirmed as Vice President, Minister of Finance and Minister of Industry to provide representation to both sides. However, this broke with the long-established precedent of the Milk-and-Coffee settlement between the politicians of Sao Paolo and Minas Gerais, whereby the two states would alternate presidents and vice-presidents and instead saw the two states forcibly combined with a resultant loss of power while the southerners of Rio Grande do Sul and its neighbouring states took over the role as the secondary party in the arrangement. This new settlement would come to be known as the Milk-and-Steel Settlement, in an effort to deliberately echo the past agreement.

    By this time, the Tenentists had secured firm control of Mato Grosso and to a lesser degree had made inroads into the Northeastern coastal region, challenging the Old Republicans for control of Bahia and the other states of the region. While clashes were inevitable, the two Brazilian powers avoided direct contact as far as possible and only rarely entered into open violent exchanges. It was during this time that divisions amongst the tenentists also began to emerge as Luís Carlos Prestes and Antônio de Siqueira Campos grew ever closer to their Socialist Chilean compatriots, while Eduardo Gomes proved reluctant to cooperate with foreigners and felt disquieted by the fact that the movement was sliding ever further to the left. The matter finally came to a head in 1929, when Gomes resigned from office and went into exile in Argentina after it became clear that he would need to use violence upon his one-time allies to shift tenentist policy.

    This development allowed Siqueira Campos to strengthen his grip as leader of the movement further, with Luis Prestes in a more supporting role. It is here that it becomes important to note the divergent ideological position of these two tenentist leaders, for while both increasingly came to espouse Communism, Siqueira Campos fell further and further into the Trotskyite camp, believing that the failures of the tenentist government originated in their failures to act as proper revolutionaries, in effect holding the opinion that the Tenentist Regime had failed due to their decision to maintain too much of the Old Republic structures, allowing the remnants of the Old Republic to maintain power and accepting the liberals of the south as active parties in Brazilian politics. By contrast, Luis Prestes first came under the influence of Muscovite Communism before shifting onto a more Italian bent under the influence of an Italian RCC confessor he had met in Chile, coming to believe that their failures in government stemmed from a failure of leadership, not of ideology or plan. He grew into a firm supporter of the Revolutionary Catholic Church and of the broad-based socialism which had been embraced by Gramsci and increasingly by his Chileans allies.

    This divergence, while remaining a hidden tension for years, resulted in increasingly volatile clashes between the two principal leaders of the movement, as Luis Prestes pressed for a decentralisation of the authority held by the top level of the Tenentist government in favour of more local and regional power and representation, while Siqueira Campos insisted on the establishment of a Unitary state system in which the tenentist government could fully put into action its revolutionary principles. This clash finally boiled over in 1933, when Siqueira Campos as President of the Provisional Brazilian Revolutionary Republic unilaterally had Luis Prestes removed from his various posts, ejecting him from leadership. Fears that this breach between the two old friends would end in civil war rose rapidly, as the supporters of either camp rose to the defence of their leaders, but unwilling to bring ruin to their troubled cause, Luis Prestes instead chose to go into exile, travelling to and settling down in Chile alongside an ever growing number of fellow Brazilian émigrés (13).

    While the Milk-and-Steel Settlement had helped resolve the immediate problems faced by the resurgent Old Republic, and the very presence of actual government authority was welcomed broadly, it did not resolve the underlying issues which had led to the Tenentist Revolts in the first place. As Siqueira Campos, now in position as the sole leader of the Tenentists in Brazil, turned away from the relatively non-confrontational approach previously taken by the Tenentists and towards far more volatile measures in hopes of securing Bahia, and with it the Northeast, these old issues began bubbling up within the Old Republic once more. With violent clashes exploding in the Northeast, the Old Republic was forced to dispatch ever more troops into the chaos while Luís Washington turned ever further towards authoritarian rule in order to maintain peace and order, in the process significantly strengthening ties to Portugal and the Integralist leadership of Sidonio Pais. This growing conflict and authoritarian turn by the government placed an ever greater strain on the constituent states of the Old Republic and spurred on simmering local resentments.

    As matters in Bahia grew ever more heated over the course of 1934, the situation began to collapse in the southern and central coastal provinces. Ultimately, it would be the mutiny of conscript soldiers being shipped north through Minas Gerais from Paraná which triggered what came to be known as the Constitutional Revolution. However, while the revolution was triggered by mutinous troops in Minas Gerais, it would be the southern liberals, most prominently Antônio Borges de Medeiros, who in turn convinced Osvaldo Aranha, who ended up forcing the change. Marshalling the local national guard even as mutinous conscripts across the country turned their guns on their Old Republican officers, the South made its push towards political dominance. Issuing an ultimatum that the demands of the people be addressed in full, the revolutionary leadership wished to enforce the calling of a constitutional convention in order to draft a new constitution for Brazil which would be capable of addressing the major social and political challenges facing it.

    Never particularly popular, it was not long before Luís Washington saw his support collapse entirely, forcing him to follow his predecessors of the Old Republic into exile once more, with barely a drop of blood shed in the process. Mustering support from Paulists reformers such as Pedro Manuel de Toledo, Euclides Figueiredo and Júlio de Mesquita Filho and with the relatively popular but non-threatening Aranha as Provisional President until a constitution could be assembled, the Constitutionalists emerged unscathed and victorious - Aranha halting offensive operations in Bahia until matters of the constitution could be resolved. Uniquely, the new constitution was written from scratch by directly elected deputies from across the political spectrum, including a newly arrived Luis Prestes and Eduardo Gomes, who brought with them a lot of their old tenente supporters to legitimize the resultant constitution.

    The result was a revolutionary constitution which granted complete independence to the Supreme Court of Brazil while subordinating all other courts to it, extended political and voting rights to all Brazilians regardless of sex or race, introduced proportional voting for elections, in effect replacing regionalist politics with those of ideology, created an electoral court to supervise the fairness of elections answering to the independent Supreme Court, codified freedoms of speech, religion, movement and assembly alongside the basic rights of life, freedom and property while establishing a whole host of social rights to go alongside the political and civil rights. These included a national minimum wage, an eight-hour work day, mandatory weekly rests, paid vacations, indemnities for unmotivated firings and much more. In effect, it in one move turned the moribund Old Republic into one of the most progressive states in the world, a system of government which was to become known as the New Republic in the years to come.

    New political parties sprouted up in response to these developments, even as regionalist affiliations were abandoned, the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the Christian Democratic Party, the National Republican Party, the Social Democratic Party and the Socialist Party, to mention but the largest and most significant emerging within a couple years. Elections held in 1935 would return the Liberal Party of Aranha to government, with him serving as Prime Minister while the much older Pedro Manuel de Toledo was elected to the much weakened post of President. With a good portion of the old tenentist movement now backing the New Republic, it did not take long before Siqueira Campos' positions back to crumble, his authoritarian approach leading to escalating accusations of Bonapartism and dissatisfaction as Trotskyite Communism experienced a precipitous loss of prestige and legitimacy following the Trotskyite Affair. With support for his cause collapsing, Siqueira Campos retreated ever further into the interior, until finally in late 1936 he vanished into the Amazon Jungle accompanied by a few thousand hardened and dedicated supporters (14).

    The Socialist Republic of Chile was at once a stalwart of the revolutionary cause in Latin America and one of the least revolutionary countries in the Americas. Under the leadership of Marmaduque Grove, the young republic had set out on a revolutionary course, setting up what was on paper one of the most revolutionary states in the Americas. It was a major supporter of the tenente movement in Brazil and of other left-wing movements across Latin America, and their favourite place of exile. However, in comparison to most of the other leftist governments which had come to power during the 1920s, it was almost surprisingly conservative in nature. As a state formed on the back of a coup and led by a mixed military-civilian government, the young republic lacked much in the way of governing legitimacy, a fact which the government's critics were more than willing to highlight on numerous occasions.

    This state of affairs was something not only observed by the new regime's detractors, but also by its membership itself. Having come to power in 1925, the ruling authorities remained hesitant when the question of securing democratic support for the government came up, knowing full well the strong support enjoyed by particularly the Liberal and Radical parties who would be the most pressing competitors to the ruling Socialist Party in any election. The military figures in government were also themselves disconcerted with the idea of surrendering leadership of a republic for which they had paid dearly in blood and as such proved rather intransigent when the topic emerged. Despite this lack of democratic legitimacy, the government proved itself a relatively competent and decent sort, giving wide latitude to their political opponents, particularly as regarded freedoms of the press, and embarked on one of the most successful land reform campaigns of the period, setting limits on land ownership while negotiating settlements with oligarchic land owners to sell off their excess land to their poor neighbours at low state-subsidised prices. The government proved more interventionist than many in the past, securing firm control of the state finances and, while American investments proved few and far between, the government was able to find willing investors in Europe, particularly in Germany where the rapidly expanding cartels spied an easy entry into the Latin American market.

    However, by 1930 the continued lack of democratic accountability finally proved too much, and public protests emerged across much of the country. Before matters could get too far out of hand, the government gave in to the demands and issued elections for later in the year. For events to get to this point, it had proven necessary for the brewing disagreements within the ruling Socialist Party to finally came to a head, as divisions between moderates and radicals of varying communist alignments had led to bitter intra-party conflict throughout the preceding half-decade. At the heart of this conflict were Carlos Dávila, a fierce proponent of Trotskyite Communism, Marmaduque Grove, who increasingly held beliefs inspired by Muscovite Communism, and Luis Emilio Recabarren, the original founder of the Communist Party and a man of strongly Italian Communist beliefs who had united his party with the governing Socialist Party in 1926.

    While Marmaduque held leadership of the party and was the best known of the government figures, his actual support was based primarily on the military had he had only a limited following within the party itself. Recabarren, while an incredibly talented thinker and writer, was a sensitive personality and had proven himself unsuited to the bitterly fractious nature of party politics, instead preferring to remain in the background when possible, but despite, or perhaps because of, this he was the man with the greatest level of backing within the party and the greatest proponent of strengthening the democratic legitimacy of the government within the party. By contrast, Dávila believed that what was needed was not more voices in the room, muddying up decision-making and slowing government business to a crawl, but rather a firm dedication to furthering the revolutionary cause.

    It was for this reason that Dávila and his followers, containing many of the most talented politicians within the party itself, believed that instead of backsliding into the mediocrity of the early 20th century, the party should instead grasp hold of the major challenges facing their country and resolve them by any means necessary. A gifted speaker, Dávila was able to rouse the passions of thousands who were swept along by his portrayal of a powerful, activist government seeking to further the revolutionary cause and better the lives of all poor Chileans without regard for reactionary and liberal whining, running roughshod over the oligarchy which still held such incredible power and influence even under what was putatively a "Socialist" republic. While Dávila would continue to claim that the unrest which led the Socialist Party to call for elections was caused by the failure of the government to act as a revolutionary force in Chile, he nevertheless gave way in the face of considerable pressure from the two other wings of the party, which both welcomed the elections with hope and trepidation.

    Ultimately, the election would play out peacefully and with seeming equitability, the opposition parties having been permitted representatives on the election supervision board, and would prove Recabarren's faction right. The Socialists secured victory by a considerable margin, with the center-left Radicals proving the second largest party in government, followed distantly by the Liberals and Conservatives, the latter of whom had lost much of their political heft in the face of universal suffrage and demonstrations that their fear-mongering about Communist rule was just that, fearmongering.

    The next governing period would gradually see the Recabarren wing of the Socialist Party weaken in its support, with Dávila riding high on the proof of his theories being proven right by Trotsky's growing international standing, although during this period Dávilla shifted away from his more anti-democratic positions, and towards something more reminiscent of a blended Muscovite-Trotskyite position - most defined by its calls for radical government action, as contrasted with Recabarren's constant pleas for moderation. Even Trotsky's fall from grace would prove insufficient to halt Dávila's growing support within the party, and when Marmaduque stepped down as leader of the party following a contested election of the party leadership in preparations for the equally successful late 1934 Chilean elections, Dávila was able to step into his post as both President of Chile and Leader of the Chilean Socialist Party (15).

    In 1916, the conservative regime which had dominated politics in Argentina since the 1880s came to an end with the election of Hipólito Yrigoyen and the Radical Civic Union. While the succeeding decade was marked by its ups and downs, with the Tragic Week of January 1919, when an attempted general strike by the Argentine Regional Workers' Federation was crushed brutally by the police and military, marking a major low point and the passing of the Labor Code of 1921 which established the right to strike, implemented minimum wage laws and collective contrast and various other efforts in the early 20s marking a high point, there was no way of doubting that Argentina was in an ever-improving situation during these years. The Radical government's aim of avoiding class struggle through social conciliation seemed to be working, with a sluggish economy at the start of the decade giving way to an ever more intensely booming one later in the decade fuelled by a policy of Land and Oil in which the state took a decisive interventionist role in the strengthening of the economy, amongst other actions establishing the Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales by nationalizing Argentina's oil companies.

    Yrigoyen, never a man prone to dialogue and negotiations when it came to his opponents, proved a decisive but divisive leader, possessing a very direct style of leadership in which his ministers were permitted little autonomy, while he constantly brow-beat governors into line with his goals. At the heart of the matter lay the Radical Civic Union's internal divisions between the Blues, the more conservative members with upper middle-class social origins primarily from the City of Buenos Aires and the Grays, who were of a more populist bent and mostly from the lower middle-class and the Province of Buenos Aires. Yrigoyen, as the nephew of the party's founder Leandro Alem, had always been at the center of party politics and had fallen increasingly in with the younger, more radical, Grays while Alem and his followers largely fell into the camp of the Blues. When Alem had ended his leadership of the party, Yrigoyen had moved in to replace him, bringing with him the large faction of Grays which had developed around the young leader, partially displacing the sitting Blue members to their considerable outrage. Yrigoyen's leadership had been contentious ever since, with bitter strife between Blues and Grays on more than one occasion, but eventually his leadership had led the party to power.

    However, with Yrigoyen acting independently of the party at which he sat as head, he soon came under increasingly vocal accusation of personalism and anti-party tendencies, claims which had surrounded Yrigoyen from the day he first rose to power within the party and which had been used to contrast him unfavourably with the far less domineering Alem. This conflict finally came to a head leading into the 1922 elections in which the Blues rallied around the aristocratic Marcelo Torcuato de Alvear and sought to depose Yrigoyen. However, without any specific charge to levy at Yrigoyen, the attempt floundered, allowing Yrigoyen to secure victory once again, in the process defeating Norberto Pinero's Conservatives by a margin of 3:1. Never the less, the more fervently anti-Yrigoyen Blues would establish the Anti-Personalist Radical Civic Union in 1923, led by Roberto Ortiz and Alvear, while in 1924 two parallel radical committees would be established by the Blues and Grays to contest for control of the City of Buenos Aires, further worsening the fissures of the Radicals.

    However, this resistance to Yrigoyen and his fellow Grays would increasingly flounder in the face of a booming economy. As economic growth exploded during the second Yrigoyen term, he found himself ever more convinced that his course of action was the correct one and came to rely almost entirely upon himself, eschewing the advice of others when they contradicted his own beliefs, including his fellow Grays. During this period Yrigoyen's efforts at intervention in provincial affairs took on an unheard pace, breaking apart the feudal oligarchies which still governed some provinces, while his resistance to other political forces hardened considerably, with everyone from the Anti-Personalists and other rival Radical factions to the Progressive Democrats and Socialists on the left, as well as the National Concentration of the Conservative Opposition and their fellows on the right, finding themselves the target of increasing marginalisation and eventually violent repression.

    During these years the one-time unity of the Gray faction of Radicals began to collapse as well, as support for the left-wing of the Radical movement, the Lencinistas and Bloquistas most prominently, grew into an active threat to the Yrigoyenista leadership, which was itself turning steadily away from its leftist roots and towards the right. However, despite Yrigoyen's collapsing popularity he was able to scrape together enough support to win a third term in the 1928 elections, most of his lost support having shifted further leftward towards the Lencinistas in particular.

    This growing threat to Yrigoyen's leadership was to provoke an attempted assassination of Senator Carlos Washington Lencinas, the most prominent of the Lencinistas, by a pro-Yrigoyen group in November of 1929, an action so audacious that it drew national recrimination and claims that Yrigoyen himself had ordered the attack. This sentiment was further strengthened when Yrigoyen intervened in the Lencinista-dominated province of Mendoza barely a week after the assassination attempt. With sentiment turning rapidly against Yrigoyen as the 1920s neared their end, the matter was suddenly and violently sidetracked when barely a month after the failed attack on Lencinas, on the 24th of December 1929, an anarchist attacked Yrigoyen as he was leaving his home, shooting three bullets into the president's car, before the presidential guard could return fire, killing the assassin. However, it would prove to be too late for the great man of Argentina who now lay dead, slain by an assassin's bullet (16).

    The sudden and shocking assassination of Hipólito Yrigoyen in late December of 1929 sent shock and horror through Argentina. Despite his flaws, there was little doubt that Yrigoyen had helped bring Argentina to a position of economic prosperity and that he had held the best interests of the nation at heart. His death was met with great public mourning, even his former enemies coming out to loquaciously praise his deeds while condemning the violence which had taken his life. However, the question of who and how Yrigoyen should be succeeded was to become a point of considerable contention in the period that followed. While Enrique Martínez, Yrigoyen's Vice President, succeeded Yrigoyen as President, he lacked the following, charisma and domineering personality which had allowed Yrigoyen to so dominate political affairs in Argentina, and as a result soon saw his position undermined by various rivals.

    The heart of the conflict which followed was to be between the Yrigoyenista Elpido Martínez, advocating a continuation of Yrigoyen's semi-authoritarian personalist approach by the government, the Anti-Personalist Roberto M. Ortiz, who wished to build ties with the moderate right-wing in a more widely embracing coalition government which avoided most of Yrigoyen's more interventionist attitudes, and finally Carlos Washington Lencinas, who brought together a wider coalition of centrist and left-leaning Radicals from both the Yrigoyenist Radical Civic Union, the Bloquistas and his own Lencinistas, with hopes of cooperating with the Democratic Progressives and moderate Socialists in pushing Argentina onto a more leftist political orientation.

    With Brazil collapsing into anarchy during this period, resulting in numerous exiles crossing into Argentina, the fears that Argentina might descend into the same sort of bloody chaos as its neighbours weighed heavily on all parties and resulted in a relatively tranquil conflict, lacking the bloody bite which Yrigoyen had brought to the political clashes of the last couple years. Ultimately, President Gonzàlez would find himself little more than a figure-head ruler, as the three Radical factions fought over control of the various ministries and prepared for the elections of 1932. The result was that the two year period between Yrigoyen's assassination and the elections was marked by political chaos, as ministries acted with great independence, often colliding in clashes over jurisdictions and authorities, with the most ambitious and talented ministers making the most of the period to the detriment of their less active peers.

    However, this period also saw a marked rise in corruption, as the lack of control and oversight left the state rife for plundering and bad-faith actions, with the Agricultural Ministry under Luis Duhai proving particularly notorious, drawing the scorn of the highly respected founder and leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, Lisandro de la Torre, who openly condemned the minister on the Senate floor. Argentinian provinces were left to govern themselves, as Gonzàlez lacked the will to intervene in their affairs, resulting in an increasingly disjointed development of the country, with the northern and north-western provinces, in which the Lencinistas and Bloquistas predominated, basically embarking on their own governing politics while in the south Conservatives took over the governance of several provinces through intimidation and threats.

    Finally, the 1932 Elections came about, in which the three radical alliances set out to compete alongside their respective allies. The result was a complete collapse for the Yrigoyenista faction, whose support shrank precipitously without the leadership and charisma of their name-sake. Instead, it would be a clash between the Lencinista and Antipersonalista factions which dominated the elections alongside their respective coalition allies, with the race too close to tell for days, as every last ballot was counted. Finally, it would be determined that the Lencinistas and the Left-Radical Coalition under Carlos Washington Lencinas had emerged victorious with a slight margin of victory, which was further extended when the Yrigoyenistas joined the coalition.

    The result was the establishment of a firmly left-leaning Radical government under Carlos Washington Lencinas, whose three brothers José Hipólito, Rafael and Antulio all came to play a key role in the new government, José Hipólito as Governor of Mendoza, Rafael as Minister of Health and Antulio as his brother's Chief-of-Staff, alongside the two brothers leading the Bloquistas, Federico and Aldo Cantoni, the former serving as Minister of Finance and the latter as Minister of Labour. Finally, in an effort to bring peace back to the Radical Civic Union, Lencinas offered Marcelo de Alvear the position as Foreign Minister - hoping that his aristocratic bearing and diplomatic experience would help furnish the government with an acceptable outward appearance to its trade partners in Europe. The new government soon developed friendly relations with the Marmaduque government in Chile and, following the Constitutional Revolution in Brazil, with the new democratic government of that country - creating a Radical-Socialist power bloc which was to dominate the southern half of the continent for the remainder of the 1930s. The new government was swift to pass women's suffrage into law, established significant social programs to benefit the poor and working classes, aided in the development of the state economy, and finally began to challenge the dominance of the oligarchy which had held sway over Argentina for centuries (17).

    Footnotes:
    (13) The 20s and 30s in Brazil of OTL are a complicated but fascinating period in time during which near-constant revolts and political upheaval forced an end to the Old Republic and brought about periods of instability, populism and dictatorship. I have chosen to kill of Vargas ITTL in order to allow a less power-hungry and unscrupulous figure to emerge at the head of the southern Liberals and have largely maintained many of the dynamics of the Old Republic, if under new and complicated circumstances. The Milk-and-Steel Settlement is a sign of acceptance by the heart of the Old Republic that the south must be given a voice in government if it is to remain stable. It is worth noting that during the chaos of the Tenente period, the south was one of the most stable regions in the entire country and as such enjoyed a great deal of migration from both immigrants and internal migrants, greatly boosting the provinces' populations and turning them into the industrial heartland of Brazil. At the same time we see that the Tenentist movement continues, falling ever further onto a communist track while solidifying and consolidating under the sole leadership of Siqueira Campos, who comes to hold a super-dominant position within the Tenente movement while brushing aside old friends and rivals in the process.

    (14) Sorry about this closing out so quickly, but I do hope that these developments make sense. By the time of the Constitutional Revolution it has been more than a decade since the Tenente Revolution, with Brazil having basically been in a state of more or less anarchy since then. That, coupled with significantly changed political perceptions from the ongoing crisis and fears of Brazil falling entirely under Integralist rule, are sufficient to prompt major action. It is worth noting that the constitution as I have laid it out is very close to the OTL Brazilian Constitution of 1934, the difference here is that there isn't someone like Vargas looking to undermine the system from the ground up. Instead, Brazil finally falls onto a more sustainable, democratic path forward and bids farewell to its long and troubled period as an oligarchic republic.

    To be clear, the Liberal Party is strongest in the south and is basically a continuation of the prior southern Liberal movement. The Conservatives are largely former supporters of the Old Republic who have accepted the changed circumstances under the New Republic. The Christian Democratic Party is a Papal Catholic center-right party not officially integralist, but willing to follow papal instructions either way - more in line with Spanish Integralism and with a minority of its members open to the restoration of the monarchy under Prince Pedro Henrique. The National Republican Party is an out-and-out Portuguese Integralist party, which wants much closer ties to Portugal and a new constitution more along the lines of the Portuguese Sidonist constitution. The Social Democratic party is led by Eduardo Gomes and is a social reform party while the Socialist Party is led by Luis Carlos Prestes and falls along Italian Communist lines, including support for the growing Revolutionary Catholic Church. Siqueira Campos ends up disappearing into the jungle, with no one really knowing what has happened to him and his followers at least for the time being.

    (15) In Chile we see a government which starts off with about as little revolutionary zeal as can be mustered by a revolutionary party gradually adopt increasingly radical positions. Marmaduque, having stayed in power for nearly a decade, finally steps down to give way for the much more activist leadership of Carlos Dávila. It is worth noting that in the OTL revolutionary Socialist Republic of Chile in 1932, Marmaduque ended up getting kicked out of leadership by Dávila - who in turn acted far too radically for most. I should also mention here that Luis Recabarren does not commit suicide in response to Central Committee recrimination following the 1924 crises, and as such is able to recover mentally enough to bring his party into the Socialist Party - remaining a prominent voice amongst the more moderate members of the party. Finally, we also see that while economic growth is not quite up to the level of the OTL pre-Great Depression period, the entry of German cartels into the market does help spur on economic development considerably.

    (16) The major divergence in Argentina comes about when Yrigoyen is able to stave off Blue pressure to surrender his leadership of the party, which in turn prevents Alvear from taking up the presidency from him. The reason for this is that IOTL the anti-Personalists were able to criticise Yrigoyen for his unwillingness to sanction the Soviet Union, a matter which is not really worth discussing in 1922 given the ongoing Russian Civil War and the Siberian White rule of the Far-East ITTL. As such, the anti-personalists are unable to form a clear argument to oppose Yrigoyen's rule and he is able to hold on to power. He makes a similar turn towards authoritarianism as IOTL, with the increasing violent repression of his rivals, it is honestly a rather sad fall from grace reading about it IOTL. The final major divergences are that the assassination of Carlos Washington Lencista ends up failing and that the OTL assassination attempt on Yrigoyen ends up succeeding, sending politics firmly off the rails of OTL. It is worth noting that Yrigoyen was overthrown in a coup in 1930, leading to the establishment of a military dictatorship, which in turn gave way to an ever more tumultuous political situation under semi-dictatorial presidents which gradually saw the country regress into authoritarian rule. It should also be mentioned that the lack of a Great Depression in the late 20s and early 30s mean that economic prosperity continues and the international trade on which Argentina is wholly reliant remains as a driver of the economy.

    (17) Argentina avoids the Infamous Decade of OTL, with the military remaining in the background politically for the time being. Instead we see Argentina slowly fall onto a line of development relatively similar to that emerging in Chile and Brazil, although under the banner of Radical rule rather than Socialist or Liberal governments of Chile and Brazil. Despite holding putatively different ideological backgrounds, there are a lot of similarities between the three regimes and they prove quite friendly towards each other.

    963px-1917_Silent_Parade%2C_drummers.png

    The Silent Parade protesting Lynching in the United States

    A Troubled Nation​

    While the late 1920s and early 1930s were marked by political gridlock and partisanship it was also a period of near un-precedented social agitation, as the American citizen was increasingly urged to engage actively in political, cultural and social movements, aided by the mobilising capabilities of mass media, particularly Radio. By the end of the decade, most households had acquired some form of radio and eagerly tuned in to listen to radio personalities of all sorts, from the demagoguery of Charles Coughlin and race baiting of D.C. Stephenson to the preaching of Reverend M. J. Divine or the singing of Bing Crosby. Like never before, there was a developing common culture and points of reference which pulled together the far-flung nation for good and bad. Even some politicians took to the air waves, most prominently the bombastic Huey Long, who bombarded his listeners with incredible bouts of oratory often targeting the Klan or his political rivals, on rare occasions lasting for hours on end, to the shocked delight of many of his followers.

    However, Huey Long was but the most visible figure in the growing struggle against the Ku Klux Klan, Lynching and Segregation. Organizations like the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and the Anti-Defamation League as well as more radical organizations such as the Industrial Workers of the World and the People's Liberty Union (PLU) under Norman Thomas, which had been established in 1927 with the aim of continuing the work of the outlawed American Civil Liberties Union, dedicated to the cause numbered in the dozens. The sentiment and support of these organizations, and the general movement as a whole, grew considerably in these years, particularly as the bitter and bloody conflict between Black Guard and Indiana Klan in Ohio and Indiana drew national attention and condemnation of the regional Klans as little better than murderous hooligans. The weakening support for the Klan allowed particularly the PLU to emerge as one of the staunchest and most vocal opponents of the organizations, attacking the Klan and their supporters wherever they could find them - amongst their accomplishments being a slew of resignations in Pennsylvania after the PLU secured a membership list of the state Klan, including prominent state senators, sheriffs and various other officials and business figures.

    However, this struggle was far from one sided, for in addition to the hyper-active Klan leadership there were other conservative groups, such as the American Legion, the National Civic Federation, the Industrial Defense Association and the Anti-Communist League, who worked in concert to oppose the rising tide of progressivism wherever they found it (18). It is notable that the 1920s and early 30s were to prove amongst the most prolific in the number of instances, scale and grotesqueness of lynchings perpetrated against the African American populace and their sundry allies and compatriots in discrimination. This state of affairs was to gradually bring the issue to national attention, soon becoming a topic of bitter partisanship, rhetoric and propaganda on all sides. In many ways these developments could be traced back to the Great War and the events surrounding it both domestically and in foreign lands.

    The single most notable development was the mass mobilisation, training and veteran experience which significant portions of the African American male population acquired as part of their participation in the Great War, and as significantly the fear and uncertainty which these new experiences engendered in their white neighbors. Even before the end of the Great War there had been trouble, demonstrated in the Camp Logan Mutiny of 1917, wherein soldiers of the all-black Twenty-Fourth United States Infantry Regiment ended up in an open clash with members of the Houston Police Department and the white citizenry after harsh harassment by both of the soldiers and the local black community.

    One of many such riots and massacres, what set the Camp Logan Mutiny apart was the resistance of the black soldiers to White power and authority. Significantly more calamitous was the Red Summer of 1919, in which riots, massacres and open clashes between white and black communities on a nation-wide basis gripped the nation. The result of post-Great War social tensions as demobilization of both black and white soldiers collided with an economic crisis, labor unrest and increased competition, the events of the Summer of 1919 simply laying the ground work for the horrors to follow. The bloody sack of the Greenwood district of Tulsa, Oklahoma, saw the wealthiest black community in the United States burned to the ground as white mobs descended on the district in repeated attacks with arms provided by city officials. Once again resistance on the part of the black populace, specifically the rallying of a group of armed black men to protect another black man imprisoned on flimsy charges and likely to be lynched, culminated in a firefight between white rioters and the black men. This had played a role in igniting the rage and violence of the white populace, who descended on the well known district with incredible violence and brutality, turning everything from rifles and machineguns to strafing airplanes against the African American population of Greenwood. Ultimately around ten thousand African Americans would be left homeless, more than a hundred killed and many more injured gravely, while an incredible amount of Black wealth accumulated through the hard work of past generations went up in flames (19).

    As the 1920s continued on, racially-motivated violence exploded on numerous occasions, for example in December of 1922 when the small town of Perry, Florida saw a lynching victim burned at the state while a crowd of onlookers collected souvenirs before two more black men were shot and hanged, before the town's black school, Masonic lodge, church, amusement hall and several families houses were set ablaze. This was succeeded the following month by the Rosewood Massacre. Rosewood, a Florida town populated primarily by black people, was a quiet self-sufficient whistle stop on the Seaboard Air Line Railway which was effectively destroyed by a mob of hundreds. Having set out to comb through the countryside in a hunt on black people after rumors of accusations that a white woman had been assaulted by a black drifter circulated, the mob set upon any dark-skinned person they came across. Dozens were killed in the escalating violence as the black community of Rosewood to defend itself, culminating in the sacking and razing of the town by hundreds of perpetrators, with the survivors of the massacre fleeing into the surrounding brush in fear for their lives.

    These circumstances would only get worse over the course of the decade as the rise of the Ku Klux Klan fuelled anti-black sentiment in the south, resulting in a steadily growing number of lynchings and massacres which were rarely reported on by the national media, and even when they were brought to light, often in disparaging terms which played the black victims as the aggressors. Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of African Americans, faced with this escalating violence sought refuge in the north and west - participating in a grand migration which was to bring the issue of white-and-black relations to the rest of the country. Many towns in the Midwest and West adopted "sundown" warnings, threatening to kill any African American who remained overnight with the town limits, while more expelled what black occupants who had settled into those northern towns during Reconstruction. The rise of the Indiana Klan, and the Klan in the North more generally, was in part fueled by these developments, and resulted in violent clashes throughout this period. Gradually, as figures like Huey Long, Jessie Daniel Ames, Reinhold Niebuhr and other anti-Klan figures rose to national prominence, the plight of the African-American gradually found its way into the national discourse and news of lynching incidents grew into a constant drum beat, the mood of the nation gradually turned against the Klan and Lynching as a practice.

    During this period organizations like the PLU, the International Labor Defense, the NAACP and other important legal defence organisations began to emerge and to organise in support of ending lynching as a semi-accepted practice. This was most prominently demonstrated by the failed reintroduction of the 1918 and 1922 Dyer Anti-Lynching Bill for debate in 1929, and the even more radical and inflammatory Long-Costigan Anti-Lynching Bill in 1932, which was included as a core part of the Progressive Party platform and nearly passed the Senate through the cooperation Progressive and Republican senators. By the start of the 1930s the way in which lynching had been condoned in the name of protecting white women finally drew condemnation from a collection of prominent Southern women, who assembled in Atlanta in late 1930 to condemn the practice of lynching, establishing the Association of Southern Women for the Prevention of Lynching under the leadership of the charismatic Jessie Daniel Ames, bringing a renewed spotlight to the issue and challenging the traditional narrative surrounding the practice of lynching to a degree rarely before experienced amongst the white population of the South.

    However, it would be the nationally covered miscarriage of justice in the case of the Scottsboro Boys in 1931 which truly caused a shift in attitudes and highlighted the gross inequities of the United States legal system in regards to dealing with African Americans. Notable for its all-white juries, rushed trial and disruptive mobs which nearly saw the case pre-empted by a mass lynching, the case proved notorious, particularly when brought up by national anti-lynching and anti-Klan campaigners. The naming and shaming of participants in lynching incidents, as well as the graphic description of the actions of lynch mobs at Huey Long's political rallies were to both bring a spot light to the issue and elevate Huey Long to public enemy #1 for those opposed to his anti-Klan policies. As the electioneering period grew ever nearer and the battle for the nomination reached a fever pitch in the early months of 1932, the issue of relations with the African-American population, the violent bigotry of the Klan and its excesses as well as the institutionalized racism of particularly the Deep South all became key points in the election campaigns of many of the candidates (20).

    The electoral conventions of June 1932 were to prove themselves hectic affairs, with considerable politicking and controversy. The first convention to come under way would prove to be that of the Republicans, eager to secure a head start to the election campaign to come and with a well defined idea of who would lead them as Presidential Candidate. The failure of Frank Lowden to secure electoral victory in 1928 had significantly soured feelings between the two major camps of the party and seen the far more progressive Charles Curtis emerge as the favoured candidate for 1932. A member of the Kaw Nation, born in the Kansas Territory, Curtis was one of the first people with significant Native American ancestry to campaign on behalf of one of the major parties for the presidency. A man of considerable popularity on the national stage and a strong leader in the Senate, Curtis had served in the senate since 1906, and in senior legislative positions since 1915, helping to shape Republican policy, legislation and objectives on a fundamental level for decades. By 1932 Curtis was 72 years old and regarded as the single most powerful and prominent figure in the Republican Caucus, having surpassed Frank Lowden following Lowden's electoral defeat in 1928, and was thus swiftly voted as Presidential candidate.

    However, Curtis' advanced age made the matter of his Vice Presidential candidate one of vital importance and considerable competition. Curtis' own preference was to have the highly regarded Charles Evans Hughes, who had served for a time as a justice on the Supreme Court with honor and even been a presidential candidate for the Republicans in 1916. However, Hughes was only two years younger than Curtis himself, and many feared that their rival parties would make a great deal of the issue. Instead, the party began to search for a younger candidate who would better compliment Curtis' image as an elder statesman - resulting in the emergence of the Wisconsin US Senator John James Blaine, the Klan-affiliated Governor of Indiana Edward L. Jackson and the famed humanitarian Herbert Clark Hoover as potential candidates. Blaine was considered more conservative than Curtis while presenting the opportunity to challenge the Progressives' grip on the Western states and was welcomed by many, although others felt him a rather bland choice with little to show in the way of major accomplishments to adorn the ticket. By contrast, Jackson would bring a great deal of character to the ticket, for good and ill, but when Curtis heard the idea he proved vocal in his disgust with the idea, reporters later writing that he had questioned why Jackson was even accepted as a member of the party, a statement which would result in Jackson and the wider Klan-affiliated elements of the Republican Party departing for the Democratic Party in angry protest at their removal from contention, not only angry at the statement but also disgusted by the idea of a half-Native American candidate for President. Finally, it would prove to be Herbert Hoover who emerged as the strongest candidate, having business experience, an international reputation for humanitarian work and strong moral bona fides, resulting in the cementing of the Charles Curtis/Herbert Hoover ticket at the end of the convention.

    Next came the Progressive Party Convention, which was to be marked by considerable controversy. At the heart of the matter, as always, was the bombastic Huey Long who arrived at the convention widely regarded as one of the front runners for the nomination, bringing the single largest delegation to the convention with supporters drawn from across the country. However, Long's open ambitions and questionable morals provoked fear and worry in many of the older party figures, resulting in the gradual emergence of a concerted anti-Longist effort by former Democratic and Republican Progressives, who, in their search for a compromise candidate with the gravitas to challenge Long, eventually settled on one of their most famous members, the maverick William Borah. A man nationally recognized for going his own way and acting with great integrity, Borah had been a long-time stalwart progressive who had followed his convictions whenever challenged. A noted isolationist and constant campaigner for the progressive cause within America's borders, Borah did not quite match what any of the major anti-Long faction were looking for in their favored candidate, but he fit enough boxes for them to to agree to support his cause as a compromise candidate. The result was that when the choice of presidential candidate came up, Borah was able to outmuscle Long's supporters by a limited margin, to the outrage of Long and his inveterate supporters who cried foul, claiming that the party was deliberately targeting the best candidate they had available and hobbling the party. However, ever a quick thinker, Long was quick to quiet his supporters before turning his attentions back to the proceedings and demanding the Vice Presidential candidature as compensation, which was granted without much thought on the part of his opponents, who saw this as a low-value bone to throw the powerful senator.

    Finally, the Democratic Convention came under way near the end of the month. With McAdoo's second term coming to an end the question of who would succeed him became a topic of considerable debate within the party, many of whom were not particularly pleased with the course the elections had taken. The favorite to claim the position as presidential candidate was the sitting Vice President, Pat Harrison, but there were many who questioned whether another candidate would not be a better solution. This led to men like Theodore Bilbo, Harry Byrd and James Nance Garner all coming under consideration, but ultimately Harrison would be able to win out - convincing many that his fellow Mississipian native Theodore Bilbo was too coarse and openly racist to win much support outside the south while allying with his fellow Southern aristocrat Harry Byrd to turn the votes in his favor. The result was that Pat Harrison was able to secure nomination as Presidential Candidate with the Virginian Harry F. Byrd as his Vice Presidential Candidate for the Democratic Party - to the utter fury of Theodore Bilbo, who hated the aristocratic Harrison like few others. The arrival of Edward L. Jackson and the Republican Klan affiliates to the Democratic fold was to be the final nail in the coffin as Jackson pledged his support for the Harrison ticket, in the process allowing Klan rivalries to influence the internal politics of the party with the defeat of the Klan-affiliated Bilbo (21).

    Once the candidates got back onto the election trail, the battle for voters took on ever more intensity. While Republican and Progressive candidates sparred vigorously on a variety of issues, with Borah and Curtis focusing their efforts in the west, they were unable to muster the sheer level of vitriol which emerged when faced with the Democrats. A premier campaigner, Huey Long would - in defiance of all counsel, embark on extended election tours of the Deep South, attacking the Democratic ticket as out-of-touch aristocrats who had built their wealth on the backs of poor Whites and Blacks while stoking racial hatred to divide the lower classes against themselves. While far from all were convinced, Long was able to create an actual challenge to the Democratic hegemony over the region, sponsoring Progressive southern candidates and attending their campaign rallies to add an additional pressure to the Democratic campaign. His utter disregard for Jim Crow laws led to numerous clashes with local law enforcement, and more than one short-lived jailing, which in turn just served to further promote Long's cause to the wider American nation.

    As the most enthralling of the political campaigners on the trail, Long was followed by a veritable swarm of journalists on his campaign, resulting in a near-constant barrage of news stories which ultimately eclipsed even that of his presidential candidate, William Borah. However, Long was far from the only man engaged in the electioneering campaign, as Pat Harrison worked wholeheartedly to combat the corrosive influence of Long's attacks while mustering up the support of the southern elite to combat Long's quasi-Socialist attacks while relying on his campaign mate for support further northward. It is notable that Harrison saw a precipitous loss of overt support from the National Klan over his alliance with Edward L. Jackson, and by extension the more northern-focused Indiana Klan. While the National Klan openly opposed Long's campaign, they did not provide anything close to the support enjoyed by McAdoo during his prior election campaigns. However, in all of this there was one figure who had largely been missing from public view for the majority of the election campaign, Hoover.

    Herbert Hoover, rather than spend his time on interminable political rallies, instead worked to secure the support of other endorsers, particularly in California where he leveraged his university ties from Stanford, and in New England where he was able to rally the old money Republican elite. Hoover's efforts would largely meet with success in most circles. One intensely important point of contention between the Republicans and Progressives would prove to be the Irish American vote, which had traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party, but in response to the rise of Klan influences in that party had largely begun to depart the party. An important group of voters, particularly in the major cities of the North-East and Mid-West, the competition for their votes would prove an intense one.

    However, ultimately it would prove to be the fact that in these regions the established Anglo-Saxon elites held dominant positions in the Republican establishment - the elites which the Irish American population had openly railed against for decades on end. In fact, the Democratic alignment of Irish-Americans at the time stemmed less from any sort of affiliation with the Democratic Party's ideals or platform, dominated as they were by Southern interests, but rather an effort to oppose the Republican Party which they viewed with hostility. Thus, when men like former Governor Al Smith of New York and Boston Mayor James Curley came calling for Irish-American votes on behalf of the Progressives, they received considerable support. In a welcome contrast to the last election, violence was much more limited and while marked by hostility, the campaign never quite descended to the levels of bloody vitriol which they had in 1928. However when election day came in early November and the votes were counted up, an entirely different sort of crisis emerged, for none of the three candidates had succeeded in securing the requisite 266 electoral votes necessary to win (22).

    The American political system was fundamentally unsuited to the presence of three major political parties, with particular weaknesses surrounding the appointment of the presidency given the necessity of any President securing at least half of the electoral votes to achieve victory. However, in 1932 the bitterly divided electorate was to return a result not seen in Modern American history - one in which none of the three parties held the requisite number of votes to win outright. When this was confirmed, and as the electoral college election neared, the law books and constitution were swiftly consulted in order to determine how to resolve the crisis. What soon emerged was that the country was facing its first contingent election in a century, the last instance having helped resolve the vice presidential election of 1836 almost a century prior.

    As the details of the proceeding became clear, including the fact that it would be the currently sitting lame-duck Congress which was to determine the future government rather than the just-elected Congress, a fact which drew considerable outrage on all sides, anger and vitriol began to pour from all sides. Intense political wrangling followed as the electoral college vote neared, with all parties negotiating in hopes of resolving the matter before it reached the House, which was itself bitterly divided between the parties. However, as the electoral college election neared it became increasingly clear that it would not be resolved there, many questioning the democratic legitimacy should the election be determined solely by faithless electors, questioning the entire electoral system and its democratic inequities. Finally the day of the electoral college election came in mid-December 1932 and saw the predicted result occur, namely that none of the major candidates secured sufficient votes to win. This resulted in the immediate calling of a full session of the House and of the Senate. As outlined in the constitution, the three presidential candidates and the two vice presidential candidates with the most votes backing them, Hoover and Long, were presented for the two houses of Congress to vote upon (23).

    Behind the scenes, political manoeuvring dominated the day as the political factions within each party came into play, the Lowden and significantly stronger Curtis factions of the Republicans, the Longists, Democratic Progressive and Republican Progressive factions of the Progressives and the Conservative and Nativist factions of the Democrats to name but the broadest divisions. The first to act, as so often before, would be Huey Long, who extended an olive branch to his Republican Progressive party comrades, suggesting that an alliance with the Republicans to resolve matters would be in the best interests of all. The result was that two thirds of the Progressive camp placed pressure on their Democratic Progressive party fellows to attempt such an alliance, which would hopefully see the adoption of an internationalist, progressive government wherein the Progressives would be able to exert considerable influence over governmental affairs. With the party relatively united behind Long's plan, they reached out to the Republicans beginning a lengthy period of negotiations which only came to their end in the new year. Under the agreement which emerged, the Republicans would back the election of Huey Long for Vice President, with significantly increased mandate, in addition to a number of cabinet positions in return for the Progressives in the House voting in favor of Curtis.

    Thus, finally, on the 8th of January 1932 Charles Curtis was elected as President of the United States while Huey Long was elected as his Vice President. Under the agreement between the two parties, Long was to be included in all cabinet meetings and was given the authority to preside over and call meetings in the absence of the President. As to the cabinet, Curtis would call on the highly trusted Henry L. Stimson to serve as his Secretary of State, on Herbert Hoover to serve as Secretary of the Treasury and Patrick Jay Hurley as Secretary of War, in the process securing the most prominent positions in the cabinet for fellow Republicans, while appointing Charles Evans Hughes as Attorney General and the Progressives Harold L. Ickes as Secretary of the Interior, Henry A. Wallace as Secretary of Agriculture, the former American Federation of Labor President William B. Green as Secretary of Labor. Beyond that Charles Francis Adams III was appointed as Secretary of the Navy and Robert P. Lamont as Secretary of Commerce while the Progressive Irish-American James Aloysius Farley was named as Postmaster General.

    The new Congress would see the Republicans secure the most seats in the House, going from 129 seats to 160 while the Progressives increased from 121 to 142, mostly coming at the loss of the Democrats who went from 183 to 127 seats, the various minor parties, primarily leftist in nature, further increased their support to 11 seats in total. As to the senate, the Democrats saw a further collapse in numbers, falling to 30 seats, with the Republicans increasing to 38 while the Progressives finally crossed the 30-seat threshold to secure 32 seats. A new day was dawning for America, now ruled by a fragile governmental coalition under a sickly President and an ambitious Vice President (24).

    Footnotes:
    (18) With the suppression of the ACLU the cause of protecting civil liberties ends up at once both weakened and radicalised - it is important to note that the PLU is very far to the left, taking cases mostly for Progressive, Communist and Socialist causes. They are also a good deal more aggressive in outlook and less concerned about protecting the rights of their enemies than the ACLU was IOTL - there is a really strong grudge towards particularly the AILE for its predecessor's role in the suppression of the ACLU, since many of its former staffers and members were imprisoned for a while and a number of those people, radicalised by the experience, have since joined the PLU in relatively prominent roles. For the rest of this segment we see how various civil rights, anti-segregationist and assorted other organisations begin to make their voices felt. This is a period of intense social mobilisation, as social and cultural issues come ever closer to the boiling point.

    (19) This ended up being basically an introduction for where the divergences begin to hit. All of these race riots and massacres are essentially OTL. What follows will be when things start to go off the rails in response to the various TL shifts up to this point. There are a frankly dismaying amount of dark horror stories to be discovered once you start digging through America's history of lynching.

    (20) All of the named and described incidents are OTL, but the context of all these events has been shifted by the changing political circumstances, particularly the way in which an actively anti-Klan and anti-Racist party, in the form of the Progressives, is able to shape the political debate. Huey Long is placing himself in a position as the foremost figure of this movement, for good and ill, and given his willingness to get down and dirty we see the public airing of the details of lynching incidents at almost every one of his rallies, to the shock and horror of his listeners. In doing so, he is able to portray the Klan and their supporters (which basically cover everyone opposed to him) as murderous blackguards without morality, little better than soulless beasts baying for the blood of the weak and innocent. Long is a premier populist demagogue and he is willing to break a lot of taboos in his campaign, with astonishing impact.

    (21) Just to make sure everyone is on the same page by the end of the conventions the candidatures are as follows: Republicans - Charles Curtis/Herbert Hoover, Progressives - William Borah/Huey Long, Democrats - Pat Harrison/Harry Byrd. There is a major shift to the left on the part of the Republicans with this ticket (although they are still miles short of where the Progressive Wing of the Republican Party once was) and a clear decision on their part to challenge the Progressive hold on the western states. The Progressive convention once again sees Long sidelined as VP candidate, to his and his followers great frustration. While the 1928 elections were not too troublesome in that regard, with Long's appointment viewed as a boon, this time around it stings a great deal more and is seen as a betrayal of Long and his followers by the wider party. However, Long doesn't want to bring down a party of which he is the single most popular politician, so he goes along with these developments despite his own considerable anger at the matter. Finally we see the Democrats settle on a Harrison/Byrd ticket which primarily aims to solidify the party's control of the South after the near-constant broadsides from Huey Long have done much to degrade the Democratic hold on the region. At the same time the arrival of Edward Jackson and his endorsement brings the prospect of further gains in the mid-west, although by allowing Jackson's entry the ground work is set for two competing Klan factions within the Democratic Party on top of their already present divisions. It is not easy being a racist when you have so many flavors of bigotry to choose from.

    (22) When considering how bloody the 1928 election became, the 1932 elections seem like a breeze by comparison. Long demonstrates once more that he is a reckless, but immensely effective, political leader who is willing to do what others are not. His Southern Campaign, in which he basically sets about shaking the foundations of the Democratic hegemony is the talking point of the entire election, and serves to begin the development of an actual functioning opposition to the Democratic dominance which has held sway in the region since the end of Reconstruction. His demonstrated ability to rally poor whites, and even bring them together with their poor black neighbors, as he did in Louisiana is something that few others would even consider. The result is that he forces the Democrats to use up much of their efforts on securing their heartland, allowing the Republicans and Progressives to challenge for control of the rest of the country. However, the end result is that no one is able to reach the requisite 266 electoral votes, which throws the country directly into a constitutional crisis.

    (23) Honestly trying to figure out what exactly the rules would have been under these circumstances was more trouble than I initially anticipated, but I will try to lay out what I have found so far. When the electoral college vote fails, the two houses are immediately called into session in order to select who should succeed as President and Vice President - notably the President is selected by the House and Vice President by the Senate, and their appointments are separate from each other. Additionally, prior to the passing of the 20th Amendment in 1933 it would have been the outgoing lame-duck Congress which determined matters while afterwards it would have been the in-coming Congress. In this case the result is that we have a bunch of people who have just been kicked out of office actually determining who the next leader of the country will be.

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    (24) I really hope that this makes sense, ultimately we see the Republicans and Progressives form an uncertain governing coalition with a greatly mixed cabinet between the two coalition partners. It is worth noting that had the Democrats not lost so many seats in either house during the 1930 mid-terms, they would have been able to elect a Democratic President in 1932 - something which will be a topic of endless discussion and speculation in Democratic circles. This result is not really to anyone's taste, but the Republicans and Progressives are making the best of a bad situation.

    Just to clarify the Cabinet:

    President: Charles Curtis (Rep)
    Vice President: Huey Long (Prog)
    Secretary of State: Henry L. Stimson (Prog)
    Secretary of the Treasury: Herbert Hoover (Rep)
    Secretary of War: Patrick J. Hurley (Rep)
    Secretary of the Navy: Charles Francis Adams III (Rep)
    Attorney General: Charles Evans Hughes (Rep)
    Postmaster General: James A. Farley (Prog)
    Secretary of the Interior: Harold L. Ickes (Prog)
    Secretary of Agriculture: Henry A. Wallace (Prog)
    Secretary of Commerce: Robert P. Lamont (Rep)
    Secretary of Labor: William B. Green (Prog)

    Summary:
    In Africa, Ethiopia falls into client-status to the Germans after a bitter civil war while absolute disaster strikes British Africa.
    The Caribbean sees the emergence of powerful rulers consolidating their hold on power, while Black culture in the Americas experiences a renaissance.
    Southern Latin America sees a gradual, often troubled, realignment in a more leftist with major shifts in government across the board.
    The 1932 elections in the United States culminate in the election of a mixed Republican-Progressive government under Charles Curtis.

    End Note:

    I have been astonished by the sheer scale of impact the Great Depression had around the world and the way in which it fundamentally changed the political, cultural and economic circumstances of almost every single country I have come across during this period. From Burma, which we will be tackling in the next update proper, to Cuba, Argentina and South Africa, all saw their political status quo shattered. One of the fun things with the TL has been exploring what happens if some of those trends from the pre-Great Depression Era are allowed to play out longer.

    I didn't get around to covering Central America or northern South America in this update, but I will be giving them their due - hell, that is the update I am working on right now.

    The US section was written before the US elections played out, hell, if I remember correctly it was still late in the summer (August) when I wrote it, and boy has it been weird to have this sitting in the background while that was going on. It has been rather weird rereading it as I was editing in the leadup to posting, but I do think it ends up going a rather interesting direction. I always wanted to explore the dreaded constitutional crisis election scenario and while I could have had things spin completely out of control, this felt like a better path to take moving forward.

    I really hope you all enjoyed this one, and I would love to see what people think of how things played out in the US in particular.
     
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    Update Thirty-Five (Pt. 1): The Challenge of Dominion
  • The Challenge of Dominion

    ImperialConference.jpg

    The King and His Prime Ministers at The Imperial Conference of 1926

    The Grip of Empire​

    Canada emerged from the 1920s a significantly changed country from that which had entered the decade. Under the leadership of the deeply controversial Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King, the autonomy of the Canadian Dominion had been championed like never before and the psychic distance between the governments of Great Britain and Canada rarely been more distant. The impetus for this shift, coming atop all the troubles at the tail end of the Great War, lay in the controversies surrounding the 1925 election in which King and the Liberals lost their controlling majority in Parliament. Ordinarily, the Conservative candidate Arthur Meighen, whose party had secured the most seats, would have been responsible for making the first effort at forming a new government. However, King decided to upstage Meighen by reaching out to the Progressives, who had themselves lost a good deal of their more radical following in Alberta during their years as part of the coalition government, in order to establish a new ruling coalition. This plan was complicated by the fact that his party won fewer seats than the Conservatives, and that King himself had lost his seat in the House of Commons. Meighen was outraged by King's move, and demanded that King resign from the Prime Minister's office, leading King to ask a Liberal Member of Parliament from Prince Albert in Saskatchewan to resign so that he could run in the resulting by-election, Prince Albert being one of the safest seats in Canada for the Liberals, which King won handily.

    With King back in Parliament, another major scandal rocked the King cabinet when one of his appointees was discovered to be accepting bribes from a male lover. Anticipating a vote of censure by the Commons, King asked the Governor General, Baron Byng of Vimy, to call a general election to secure his mandate in the face of the crisis, but in a break with all norms The Governor General refused to do so, leading to King's resignation on the 28th of June 1926 and to a subsequent invitation to Meighen to form a government. King claimed this was an instance of blatant interference in Canadian politics by an official appointed by a foreign power, in the first major display of the anti-British sentiment which was to so characterise the government that followed. Showing rare fire, King rallied the Progressives back into his camp and defeated Meighen in a vote of no-confidence despite Meighen having sat as Prime Minister for just three days, thereby forcing the call for a new General Election. The 1926 elections were to see the effective absorption of the Progressive Party by the Liberals, which was made official by the end of the year, with the Liberals winning a clear majority of the seats in the House of Commons, allowing King to take complete control of the government moving forward.

    With the King-Byng Affair now over, the Governor General was replaced by the Liberal Rufus Daniel Isaacs, Marquess of Reading, at the insistence of the outgoing Chamberlain government. Isaacs was soon to develop a decent working relationship with his fellow Liberal, King, but the damage done by the King-Byng Affair was to prove long-lasting. King's position re-entrenched, he set to work on extending Canadian autonomy any way possible, particularly after the rise of the British Labour government with its constant bureaucratic infighting and mismanagement of colonial and dominion affairs. King massively expanded the Department of External Affairs and in the process set about developing Canada's own diplomatic cadre. Having pledged their support to Canadian affairs before all others, this cadre soon began developing closer economic and political ties to France, in an effort to win over the Quebecois, while working with the Americans even as they sought to firm up the independence of the Dominions within the British Empire internationally. This was to lead to the Imperial Conference of 1926, which declared that Great Britain, Canada and other dominions were equal in status to each other and in no way subordinate to any other in either domestic or foreign affairs, and later to the Imperial Conference of 1930 where the legislative authority of the British parliament over Canada was effectively ended - although they would retain the power to amend Canada's constitution at the request of the Canadian Parliament.

    King initially tried to match these efforts on a domestic level by transferring the ownership of Crown Lands and subsoil rights within Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan to the provinces, but met with so much resistance from the Progressive wing of his party, who largely opposed weakening central government authority, that he was forced to abandon the idea. By contrast, he was able to pass a system of old-age pensions and improve labour laws considerably by the end of his second term - enough success to press for another term of office. The 1930 elections would see King face a major challenge from within his own party as Thomas Crerar of the Progressive faction of the Liberal Party mounted a challenge to the domineering King. The struggle that followed soon saw a key fissure within the party between more activist Progressives, who increasingly aligned behind the Social Credit political theories which had emerged amongst the Alberta Progressives near the end of the decade, and the more traditional King's Liberals. An intriguing emergent ideology which argued that civilization should be constructed around absolute economic security for the individual, the Social Credit movement was to secure a major following during the years that followed, as more and more of the Liberal party found itself disenchanted with King's near-complete control of the party. Ultimately, this challenge for leadership would be averted by King, but he was forced to grant considerable concessions to the Progressive wing of the party with the result that when he stood for election, he experienced a weakening of support from his own wing of the party - with some of the voters in the middle shifting their support towards the Conservatives.

    Nevertheless, the 1930 elections would return King for his third consecutive term in office on the basis of his capable handling of the economy, successful resolution of the early 1920s crisis and the increasingly anti-British tone taken by his government. The first two years of King's new term would see a decided shift in governing policy, as the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Trans-Canada Airlines, the National Film Board of Canada - meant to help promote the Canadian film industry, were all established as crown corporations while the Bank of Canada was transformed from a private entity into a crown corporation as well. However, during this time the Prairie, which King has spent so much effort to aid in the development of, began to experience the same troubles striking the American states to its south - the Dust Bowl had arrived in Canada. The rise of the Charles Curtis Presidency to the south at the end of 1932 was to inaugur a new period of increasing Canadian-American cooperation, as the two governments worked to strengthen cross-border ties, cooperate on resolving the Dust Bowl and gradually developed an effective foreign partnership with the neighbour to the south (1).

    More than any other Dominion of the British Empire, Australia embraced Conservative rule to the utmost. Under the leadership of the Coalition, so called for the fact that the Country Party and Nationalist Party worked entirely in concert to oppose the powerful Labour Party of Australia, Prime Minister Stanley Melbourne Bruce had brought Australia firmly into the post-Great War era. Summing up the requirements of his nation early in his term, Bruce stated that "men, money and markets" defined the essential needs of Australia, leading him to support a major migration campaign throughout the 1920s which ultimately brought some 400,000 Britons to Australia - although his efforts to settle these migrants and the returned soldiers in the rural countryside proved significantly less successful, with several major irrigation efforts in Western Australia and Queensland failing rather disastrously while many of the new arrivals settled into the tenements of Sydney, Melbourne and the like. Nevertheless, Bruce invested heavily in infrastructure developments, resulting in the continuation of various delayed and abandoned, but necessary, infrastructure projects such as the Sydney Harbour Bridge, the Sydney Underground Railway System, major highways, new dams and grain elevators as well as rural railway networks in nearly every state of the commonwealth. To coordinate the financing of these efforts, he set up a Loan Council in 1928 while seeking to improve the balance of trade with Britain with only limited success, particularly since two-thirds of Australian exports were based on just two commodities, wheat and wool.

    Modernization of transportation also played a major role during the 1920s, as the number of cars and lorries in Australia grew more than ten-fold and coastal sailing ships were finally abandoned in favour of motor and steam-driven shipping, while the very first Air Ambulance in the world was founded by the Reverend John Flynn under the name of The Royal Flying Doctor Service. This was but one of many accomplishments for the Australian aeronautics scene, as the famed aviator Charles Kingsford Smith accomplished ever more daring feats, completing a Australia-round circuit in 1927 and traversing the Pacific the following year via Hawaii and Fiji, flying from the United States to Australia. As with Canada, the 1926 Imperial Conference saw the Australian Dominion placed on an equal footing with all other parts of the Empire, with control over domestic and foreign affair. However, the results of the 1930 Conference, which would have significantly weakened any real ties between Australia and Britain were left unratified as the Coalition government clung to the motherland despite its current trespasses, namely their election of what the Australian government considered a disastrous Labour government.

    As Australia's economic boom continued, the continued borrowing of the federal and state governments grew increasingly troubling as warning bells began to ring in both Sydney and London. Already in 1928 had the debt of the state of New South Wales accounted for half of Australia's accumulated debt - a fact which caused alarm amongst certain political and economic circles, although most leaders remained reluctant to admit the problem. Australian debts rose at a level unrivalled anywhere in the British Empire, which eventually began to draw the notice of people outside of Australia as well. In 1925, the US-UK Trade Agreement, which would ultimately cause so much chaos in Africa, was passed and the produce markets of the British Empire were soon experiencing a precipitous decline in prices - most prominently in grain, a key staple of the Australian export economy. While wool prices held steady, the massive increase in grain supply caused a sharp dip in prices which directly impacted the Australian economy, weakening their balance of trade and pushing them even further into debt, which in turn worsened economic conditions across the dominion and placed renewed pressure on industrial relations as unemployment rose in response to employers seeking to cut costs where they could.

    Labour relations, which had recovered from their early decade lows, collapsed once more as strikes broke out on a regular basis. In 1929 it was in the sugar mills, in 1930 the dockworkers and in early 1931 it hit the transportation and timber industries. However, the worst was to come later that year when labour disputes between miners and mine owners in the New South Wales coalfields culminated in riots and lockouts which forced the intervention of the Bruce government. Convinced that the source of the economic deteriorations were the worsening industrial relations, the Prime Minister issued a dramatic ultimatum to the Australian state governments to hopefully resolve the issue, either hand over their powers of industrial regulation to the federal government entirely, or the federal government would divest itself of its industrial powers and dismantle its federal arbitration capabilities, effectively repealing the much liked Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Act of 1904. The opposition to the bill, called the Maritime Industries Bill, was fierce which, when combined with the fact that the government had just proposed a series of major new taxes to help alleviate the debt crisis, rapidly turned the public against the government. Nevertheless, Bruce forged on and by hook or by crook eventually forced the measure through the parliament, passing it on its Third Reading by a margin of two votes in favour. The matter was now turned over to the state governments who were left with a difficult choice to make (2).

    Having succeeded in his initial endeavour, the Prime Minister now sat back and waited for the state governments to take control of the commonwealth's industrial policy duties - well satisfied with his accomplishment. The resulting debate in the individual state parliaments was to prove fierce and complex, with the Country Party representatives at odds with their National Party colleagues, many feeling that allowing control of industrial policies to be governed entirely at the state level would place too great of a burden upon a body unprepared and unsuited to the task. A key actor in all of this was the prominent Premier of New South Wales, the Labour politician Jack Lang, who rallied resistance to these efforts knowing full well that if the states took over control of industrial policy it would not take long before the numerous expensive industrial and infrastructural programs undertaken by the federal government would be pawned off upon the states, a prospect which could well mean bankruptcy for the already debt-ridden states, foremost amongst them New South Wales. While none of the states particularly enjoyed the idea of surrendering their voice in industrial politics to the central government, it was better than the alternative.

    As a result, by the end of March 1932 the states had all surrendered control of industrial policy to the government. Horrified at this sudden and unanticipated added burden upon the government, and with his unpopularity growing by the day, Prime Minister Bruce was forced to make the best of a bad situation while seeking to gin up support going into the contentious 1932 elections. The result was a total route of the National Party and a considerable weakening of their coalition partners in the Country Party, while the Labour Party surged to victory. Here it is important to highlight the bitter factional struggles within the Labour Party which had occupied the preceding decade, as clashes between moderate and radical members played out to the constant drumbeat of electoral defeats. The radicals of the early 1920s gave way to a series of moderates from 1923, doing much to cool the flames of industrial strife, before the worsening economic situation and consistent electoral failures of the moderates allowed for the return of the party's radical wing to power. Leading this left-ward shift was none other than the NSW Premier Jack Lang, who was able to use his successful negotiation of the fall-out from the Maritime Industries Bill to secure leadership of the party in the leadup to the 1932 elections, and as such ascended as Prime Minister of Australia in 1932.

    A steadfast campaigner for the rights of the poor and working classes, Lang had carried out numerous social programmes during his first and second terms as Premier - from 1925 to 1927 and then from 1930 to 1932, including state pensions for widowed mothers with dependent children under fourteen, a universal and mandatory system of workers' compensation for death, illness and injury incurred on the job, funded by premiums levied on employers, the abolition of student fees in state-run high schools and improvements to various welfare schemes such as child endowments, which Lang's government had introduced during an earlier term in office. Various laws were introduced in his second term, providing for improvements in the accommodation of rural workers alongside changes in the industrial arbitration system and the adoption of a 44-hour workweek. Extensions were made to the applicability of the Fair Rents Act whilst compulsory marketing along the lines of what existed in Queensland were introduced. Additionally, the adult franchise for local government elections was put into action, together with legislation to safeguard native flora and to penalize ships for discharging oil.

    Coming into office in the midst of a crisis, Lang bucked expectations by refusing to cut government salaries and spending while passing a number of laws which he hoped would help ease the hardships of the emergent crisis, restricting landlords on their eviction rights and insisting on payment of the legal minimum wage on all government work programmes amongst sundry other efforts. Notably, Lang took contact to the highly regarded British economist John Maynard Keynes to aid in the development of a plan to help Australia out of its crisis, after Sir Otto Niemeyer of the Bank of England suggested that the Lang government should pursue a deflationary economic policy, cutting government expenditures by up to 25%, in order to honour their debt repayments. The conflict which followed within the government was a bitter one filled with intense recriminations and attacks as Lang rejected Niemeyer's proposal in its entirety.

    Instead Lang pushed forward with a plan based partially on correspondence with Keynes, whereby the Australian government and the states of its commonwealth were to cease interest payments on debts to Britain temporarily, reduce interests on all government borrowing by 3% to free up money for Keynesian stimulus, the cancellation of interest payments to all overseas bondholders and financiers on government borrowings - to further inject money into the nation's money supply, and if issues with securing enough gold to maintain the Gold Standard emerged, to replace it with a Goods Standard whereby the currency in circulation was to be fixed to the amount of goods produced by the Australian economy as a whole. This plan, while drawing shrieks of horror and outrage from fiscal conservatives and foreign lenders, met with broad support from within the Australian banking system, which indicated that should he pay interest domestically they would advance additional financial aid to the government with which to stimulate the economy. As 1933 came to a close and Lang's plans came under way, the stage was set for a major crisis to unfold in Great Britain (3).

    A stalwart supporter of the British Empire under its traditional Conservative and Liberal governments, New Zealand was to greet the tumultuous post-Great War world with ever greater insular efforts. In 1922 the powerful Temperance Movement was able to secure the passage of alcohol Prohibition, having come incredibly close to accomplishing the effort already in 1911, 1914, 1917, 1919 and 1921 - in a single moment, alcohol had been outlawed across the small dominion, to the great relief of some and the drunken anger of many. This measure was passed in the immediate aftermath of the 1922 elections in response to fears of mounting support for the explicitly socialist Labour Party, who were campaigning on the redistribution of wealth, nationalisation of industry and elimination of conscription, which had secured 25% of the vote in the recent elections.

    Fearing that Labour would soon supersede the Liberals, the powerful and influential founders of the governing Reform Party worked with great dedication to counter the rise of the left. The ruling Reform Party was able to shore up its support, allying with the Liberal Party when needed to keep Labour out of power and influence, while working in close concert with the Conservative British Governments of the early and mid-1920s, in the process allowing for New Zealand to emerge as the single most firmly pro-British dominion in the Empire. However, the ascension of Labour to government in Britain was to see a drastic shift in attitude by the Reform Party, who turned firmly towards a policy of autarchic national security and isolationism in response to what they viewed as a betrayal of common British values by the British electorate. In 1927, faced with continued electoral failures after hitting a high-water mark in 1922, the Labour Party abandoned its socialist platform and adopted a firmly Social Democratic platform, developing and campaigning on a programme calling for a comprehensive welfare system, the prospect of which would see a significant shift in support towards the Labour Party in the following elections. As Labour experienced explosive growth in the years that followed, the Liberal and Reform Parties found themselves forced ever more into alignment with one another, culminating in their forming of a governmental coalition as the Liberal-Reform Coalition by 1931 in order to prevent a Labour government.

    Similarly to Australia, the 1925 US-UK Trade Agreement began to eat into the small dominion's export trade by the turn of the decade, although significantly less so than in Australia, with the result that the economic growth of the 1920s slowed considerably, and fears of economic hardships began to make themselves known. Nevertheless, the government elected in 1931 was able to right the ship, steadying the political and economic situation through a minor stimulus package and the negotiation of more favorable trade terms with the British government in order to prevent the situation from deteriorating. One notable development during this period was the large scale investment by New Zealand into the united Dominion Fleet in Singapore, which had been established early in the 1920s to aid in the protection of the region from foreign threats, viewing this as the only way of ensuring New Zealand's safety in an increasingly tense world. The feeling of isolation which were to increasingly characterize New Zealand in these years were further worsened with the rise of the Lang government in Australia. Once a trusted, if overbearing, neighbor, the fact that the Australians had followed the British in their betrayal of proper British values by turning to Socialism worsened an already present distrust of New Zealand's fellow dominion and led the New Zealanders down an ever more autarkic path (4).

    British Malaya was a composite frame of reference, used to describe three distinct colonial entities, the Federated Malay States, the Unfederated Malay States and the Straits Settlements. While the former two were British protectorates with their own local rulers, the Straits Settlements were firmly under British sovereignty and were ruled directly by the British Crown. In order to streamline the administration of the various independent Malay states the British had begun to federate some of the most significant of the Malay states under their control beginning in the 1870s, before uniting four of the most significant states, namely Selangor, Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Pahang, into the Federated Malay States with the minor town of Kuala Lumpur named as the federation's capital. Residents-General administered the federation, but allowed the various Sultans to retain limited powers over Islamic and Malay customs, while modern legislation was introduced and modernisation was undertaken as resource extraction and economic development were emphasised.

    This left a variety of quasi-independent Malay states whose limited economic potential kept the British from incorporating them into the centrally administered Federated States, although by 1914 every Malay state had lost most of their sovereignty. This period of slow consolidation of power into a centralised government was marked by compromises which would have a great impact on the later road to nationhood, with the Sultans retaining their reign but not rule in their states - marking the transition of the idea of the Malay states as a collective of lands governed by independent feudal rulers towards a more federal constitutional monarchy. However, by 1909 the High Commissioner of the time, Sir John Anderson, began to express concerns that British Malay was becoming too over-centralised, with fears that marginalizing local rulers would erode the trust of the local populace. It was in response to these worries that the Federal Council, on which the sultans served as representatives alongside the colonial government and members of the non-Malay communities, was established, although it would have little real success in distributing power back to the individual states of the federation. A second attempt at decentralization came under way in 1925 under Sir Laurence Guillemard, with the British seeking to entice the unfederated states into a formal union, hoping to make joining more attractive by weakening the authority of the federal authorities. However, the proposal largely floundered in the face of opposition from Chinese merchants and British planters who felt that such efforts would significantly impact the economic efficiency of the region and slow the establishment of a unified modern state.

    The arrival of Sir Cecil Clementi, a much lauded former Governor of Hong Kong who had helped steer that colony through the latter half of the 1920s with surprising skill, in 1930 to serve as High Commissioner of Malaya and Governor and Commander-in-Chief of the Straits Settlements was to augur a period of significant change. A firm believer in the need to unite the Malayan Peninsula into a single federal union due to the harm and inefficiencies provoked by its many diverse political branches, overlapping structures and overly complicated administrative structures, Clementi set out to immediately accomplish the task of finally unifying the region under a single authority. Clementi imagined a state which included all of the Malay States with the Crown Colonies, shifting the capital from Kuala Lumpur to the rapidly growing Singapore, and abolishing the post of Federal Chief Secretary of Malaya in favour of having the High Commissioner directly govern the proposed union. The move to Singapore was based on not only the massive ongoing investments in the city in an effort to build it up to a port sufficient to housing the Dominion Fleet, but also by the fact that Clementi felt the city much more secure against domestic threats. While Clementi was able to muster support from the Colonial Secretariat, the Chinese leaders of the Straits Settlements, particularly in Singapore, the colonial bureaucracy and even elements of the local Malay population, disagreements over the actual implementation and specific power-sharing structures of the new regime hindered agreement. This was further exacerbated when Clementi announced the details of his plan to the Federal Council in 1931.

    Fearing that this might be a conspiracy to deprive them of power, with fears of becoming little better than puppets, as were the sultans of the Federated States, the unfederated states' Sultans, foremost amongst them those of Kedah and Johor, announced their public opposition to the plan. Further troubles soon emerged, such as reservations over how the currently federated states would maintain their power and authority when the economic centre of gravity shifted from the countryside to the coasts and the major port cities of Singapore, Penang and Mallaca, while colonial administrators began to question whether the plan would simply destroy the existing governance system of the Federated States while devolving the power of the colonial bureaucracy to local Malayans. Had matters continued on without external stimuli, these developments might well have ended there, but the demonstrated weaknesses of a disunited colonial authority, as was so viscerally demonstrated by the bloody Cochinchina Rising of 1931 which occurred bare months after the first proposition of Clementi's plan served to strengthen support for unity.

    Fearing the spread of colonial rioting and revolt south from Indochina, the colonial authorities of Malaya pressed forward once more, Clementi tweaking his proposal to weaken the decentralising elements of the proposal while intense political pressure was placed upon the recalcitrant Sultans. This was most demonstrably the case for Sultan Ibrahim of Johor, who went so far as to solicit the support of the British Royal Family in hopes of avoiding the federalisation of his principality, only to be met with threats of deposition in favour of his son and regent Ismail of Johor by a thoroughly out-of-patience Colonial Office, already in the grips of a bitter power struggle with intrepid Labour appointees. Ibrahim remained steadfast in his opposition, culminating in his deposal and the appointment of his less recalcitrant son Ismail, to the shock and outrage of not only Ibrahim and the sundry Malay Sultans, who now felt forced to give way to the pressures of the colonial administration, but also to the British Royal Family itself, who lodged protests with the Prime Minister after Ibrahim lamented his fate in a series of inflammatory letters to King George. The entire affair was to drag on through 1932 before the Two Rivers Crisis brought an inconclusive end to Johor Matter, the government now far too busy to deal with the matter and King George driven to his sickbed over the current state of British affairs. By the end of 1933, Clementi was finally able to put into action his plans, resulting in the federalization and unification of all Malay States, while administrative duties were shifted to the rapidly expanding City of Singapore, now capital of the Malay Union (5).

    Footnotes:
    (1) Events follow relatively closely to OTL early on, including the OTL Byng-King Affair, and its associated weakening of the British-Canadian relationship. However, progressive sentiments are stronger in Canada ITTL and more organised (the result of events detailed in update twenty-one) and as such King is forced to shift to the left significantly earlier than IOTL. IOTL the Great Depression played a central role in driving King from office in 1930, but ITTL there is no such loss of faith in the governing party, although he faces growing pressure within the party, and as such he is able to win this time around. We then see King move into a lot of the stuff he eventually did IOTL later in the 1930s under pressure from the Left. Finally, we see the Canadians increasingly establish themselves as an independent power while the ties to Great Britain, already soured by the fallout of the Great War, weaken precipitously while turning increasingly to the South for a more trusted ally. One thing to note is that Canada is far less impacted by the 1925 trade deal, having already possessed quite significant cross-border trade with the United States.

    (2) There are a couple minor divergence early on here before the major one at the very end. Migration from Britain is considerably larger ITTL given the ongoing troubles Britain has experienced during the 1920s, leading to 100,000 more Britons departing for Australian shores. Second, while the debt crisis emerges as IOTL (I don't see how to avoid it), the situation is less dire than IOTL where the Great Depression really just shattered the Australian economy and occurs about two years later, the impact of the 1925 trade agreement taking some time to make itself felt in the markets of the British Empire when contrasted to the sudden economic shocks of OTL's Great Depression. Therefore, all of these events are occurring under troubled, but not disastrous, circumstances. However, it is with the Maritime Industries Bill that we find our major divergence, because IOTL Bruce failed to muster the support he needed by the third reading, losing out by a single vote, which led to a vote of no-confidence and the collapse of his government. ITTL, while equally contentious, the matter is passed by a slim margin, presenting a major pickle for the Australian states to work out. I should mention here that Bruce hoped that the states would take all control of industrial matters upon themselves, allowing the commonwealth government to end its involvement in industrial politics.

    (3) I have had some trouble working out exactly how the politics would have played out if the actual question set out in the Maritime Industries Bill were actually posed, so I hope you will allow me to push forward with this divergence, which ends up federalising the entirety of Australian industrial policy and arbitration, just as a formidable Labour government ascends to power. The fall of the Coalition government is based largely on how events played out IOTL - the passing of the Maritime Industries Bill and the major tax reforms set out by Earle Page are really the last straw for an increasingly unpopular government. I have also taken the liberty of having Jack Lang come to power in 1932 rather than the OTL Scullin government of 1929 because I feel the divergences would be sufficient to allow for Lang to rise to greater power, particularly on the back of a political master stroke with the Maritime Industries Bill. The policies I have outlined Jack Lang adopting are based entirely on what he OTL proposed in 1932, but which were disregarded by the Scullin government in favor of Niemeyer's proposals ultimately lead to the collapse of the Scullin government and the fragmenting of the Labour Party. Lang is a radical, who is willing to do whatever it takes to accomplish his goals, and who is willing to adopt policies and approaches which would be unthinkable previously.

    (4) The butterflies for New Zealand are a bit limited in their nature, but there are some. In contrast to OTL, Prohibition is implemented in the small dominion - the matter was so close and attempted so often IOTL that I don't think it is a stretch to think that with a slightly more conservative outlook it could have passed without much trouble. The Liberal Party does not quite collapse entirely as IOTL, and as such the United Party is not formed in 1928 - meaning that it is still the bitterly divided Liberal Party which enters into coalition with Reform. As elsewhere, the Great Depression does not crash the economy on schedule, and while the 1925 Trade Agreement does have an impact, it is pretty limited in nature - more a slow down than a recession if that makes sense. Finally, we get back to the Dominion Navy, which has become the pride and glory of New Zealand in particular - they provide a lot of the sailors and invest heavily in it, viewing the navy as necessary to protect their dominion from hostile intentions. This is based on the fact that national defense was a constant and important factor in political debate in New Zealand at the time, so given the changed circumstances I think this shift makes sense.

    (5) Once again, this starts largely OTL before shifting off the rails in the late 1920s. IOTL Clementi's proposal ended up floundering in response to the various factors I have laid out, with the added pressures of the Great Depression complicating matters and drawing much of Clementi's attentions for the duration of his tour of duty. ITTL, by contrast, the eruption of the Indochinese Revolt - and the way in which the rebels use the complicated bureaucratic structures in Indochina to their benefit, end up serving as a major impetus for unifying the colonial administration in Malaya, even at the cost of alienating local support. I know that angering the locals seems a bit wrong-headed if you are trying to prevent the colony from falling into revolt, but what the British are making note of is the involvement of the Communists in the Annam and particularly Cochinchina Revolts, as well as the way in which the shifting bureaucracies in Indochina has meant that colonial power and authority were so diffuse that they were unable to respond to multiple crises at once. By unifying the Malay, the British believe that they can significantly improve the efficiency of the colonial bureaucracy, centralising efforts in a place where they can be sure of retaining control (Singapore) and that ultimately the positive results thereof will turn the populace (which is split over the issue to a greater degree than the sultans themselves - who are largely opposed, but give way under the threat of deposal) in favor of the reforms.

    577px-Mahatma-Gandhi%2C_studio%2C_1931.jpg

    Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

    Land of Caste and Curry​

    The years between the Nehru-Jinnah Report and the Two Rivers Crisis, 1928-33, were to be dominated by considerable debate and disagreement within the Indian independence movement. At the heart of the matter lay the divisions between the moderate and radical wings of the movement, who disagreed fundamentally over whether Purna Swaraj, the ideal promulgated by the late, great Chittaranjan Das, meant that Dominion Status was the end goal of the movement or whether an independent state, often presented as a Republic, was the ultimate objective of their movement. Age played a key role in this divide, with younger leaders like Subhas Chandra Bose and Jawaharlal Nehru amongst the most steadfast supporters of total independence, believing that dominion status would mean the retention of the Monarchy of the United Kingdom and preserve the political powers of the British Parliament to intervene in Indian affairs indefinitely. By contrast, Motilal Nehru held firm on the issue, using his considerable sway within the Swaraj Party to maintain support of the Dominion position, fearing that too significant radicalism on the part of the Swaraj Party would alienate their much more moderate companions in the Muslim Independence Party, which could in turn shatter the unity they had fought so hard to rebuild after the nadir years following Chauri Chaura.

    At the same time, the MIP remained equally divided between those who wished to continue working in concert with their Hindu counterparts and those who wished to forge a separate path forward for the Muslim population of India. Foremost amongst those seeking to chart a separate course for Muslim India was Shaukat Ali, one half of the prominent Ali brothers, who had firmly opposed not only the Nehru-Jinnah Report, believing that Muslims should have been granted separate electorates in the report, but also rallying support behind the Two Nations Theory. Shaukat was able to secure a significant following amongst the members of the MIP but was unable to convince the charismatic Muhammad Ali Jinnah or his own brother Mohammad Ali to support the effort. Instead, Shaukat turned to the Muslim League for further support, proposing to Aga Khan III and other prominent League leaders that Muslim India should be established as a British Dominion ruled separately from the Hindu populace, although the details of where or how such a separate dominion should be constructed remained an issue of considerable debate amongst Shaukat's supporters.

    Two deaths in 1931 were to provoke the first major shift in this uneasy equilibrium, as Mohammed Ali, Shaukat's brother, and Motilal Nehru both died shortly after one another, in the process removing the two most significant forces of moderation on both sides of the All-India United Front. These two deaths were to result in a pair major development, namely the gradual fragmenting of the Muslim Independence Party and the weakening of the Dominion-faction of the Swaraj Party. While Mohammad Ali had remained alive, Shaukat Ali had resisted the calls of his more radical supporters to break with the Hindu-lovers in the party in order to forge an independent path forward, but after his brother's death Shaukat increasingly fell under the sway of this radical group of supporters. Already in talks with Aga Khan and others of the Muslim League, Shaukat would bring matters to a head in early 1932, issuing an ultimatum that the Muslim Independence Party either end its support for the United Front, or he and his supporters would leave the party for the Muslim League.

    The debate within the party was fierce, and on more than one occasion it seemed as though Muhammad Ali Jinnah would give way under the pressure, but with the backing of Dr. Mukthar Ansari, not only a prominent party member but also the Chancellor of the highly regarded Jamia Millia Islamia University, Jinnah was able to hold strong. The result was the departure of a significant minority of the Muslim Independence Party membership for the Muslim League, which was itself undergoing considerable divisions and disagreements as younger radicals sought to turn a party of the social elite into a mass movement. The arrival of Shaukat Ali and his supporters was to bring this mass appeal to the Muslim League while bolstering the younger radicals, but also significantly weakened the ties between the League and its governing allies as it shifted towards explicit support for a separate Muslim India. Shaukat had brought most of those still holding hopes of Dominion-status with him when he departed the party, leaving the Muslim Independence Party in the hands of far more outspoken and radical members who soon found welcome fellows in the Swaraj Party, where Motilal's death had allowed the more radical younger leaders around Jawaharlal Nehru and Subhas Chandra Bose to rise to power and authority (6).

    A second development in this intermediate period was the end of Mohandas Gandhi's prison sentence in early 1928 and his return to the political stage, bringing him back into the complex ongoing political debate which was consuming the independence movement's various branches. Rallying the faltering All-India Congress Party behind him, Gandhi soon demonstrated his keen ability to generate publicity and support, being an inveterate political mind with a seemingly sage-like mien, by adorning the home-spun dress of India's rural poor and wandering amongst the poor masses of both urban and rural India, eating simple vegetarian meals and engaging with the daily travails of the Raj's poorest individuals in the spotlight of India's nascent mass media. Having recovered from his ordeals in prison and determined to once more return the Congress Party to the heart of Indian politics, Gandhi set out a course for the party to make itself heard once more by seeking to reignite the popular push for independence, deciding to protest against the salt tax.

    A choice initially met with considerable consternation, particularly from his ever-loyal right-hand man Vallabhbhai Patel, who had proposed a land revenue boycott instead, Gandhi explained his choice by stating "Next to air and water, salt is perhaps the greatest necessity of life", indirectly referring to the fact that the onerous salt tax represented 8.2% of the British Raj's entire tax revenues, and was perhaps the single most damaging colonial effort for the poorest segments of Indian society. Seeking to reignite support for his efforts, Gandhi publicised his plan to march some 240 miles together with 79 trusted volunteers in protest of the salt taxes to the international media, the declaration quickly drawing attention from dozens of Indian, European and American newspapers as excitement over what the ever enigmatic Indian would seek to do for his first major action after imprisonment gripped the media.

    Fearful of provoking a repeat of the out-of-control non-cooperation movement, Gandhi emphasised strict discipline by recruiting residents of his own ashram and training them to the strictest standards possible in his non-violent methods, while dispatching scouts to each village along the planned route of the march in order to ensure everything would proceed according to plan. However, by this point in time word of Gandhi's plans had reached the ears of the Viceroy and Governor General of India Freeman Freeman-Thomas, Earl of Willingdon, who expressed severe reservations over Gandhi's plans. As Governor of Madras during the height of the Non-Cooperation Movement, Willingdon had more than enough experience with Indian affairs to know that if the effort were allowed to proceed, it could well spin out of control with unaccustomed speed, and as such issued orders to prevent the march from occurring.

    What followed was a tense back and forth between the Governor-General and Gandhi, in which they sought to determine a compromise, with Gandhi setting out a list of eleven demands, including reduction of land revenue assessments, cutting of military spending, imposition of a tariff on foreign clothes and the abolition of the salt tax. However most of these demands were of such grand magnitude that Willingdon was unable to give way, instead drawing their negotiations on interminably. Increasingly clear on what Willingdon was intending to do, and with both his own supporters and the international media growing increasingly impatient with the delays of the planned march, Gandhi finally broke away from the negotiations and set out with his planned marchers on the 13th of March 1930.

    The first day's march of 21 kilometers ended at the village of Aslali where Gandhi spoke to a crowd of some 4,000, drawing considerable alarm from Willingdon's already angered office. Thus, while the second day proceeded as the first, with Gandhi's following expanding to nearly a thousand from the original 80 and the gathering at the end of the day numbering 8,000, Gandhi and his marchers would find themselves stopped by the colonial authorities mid-day on the third day, in mid-March 1930. After a series of tense negotiations, during which the assembled crowd grew ever more rowdy, Gandhi eventually decided to surrendered himself into British custody, fearful of the situation spinning out of control as at Chauri Chaura. Once more brought before the colonial courts, Gandhi was sentenced to a two-year sentence, which he was allowed to undertake under house arrest, on charges of disrupting the public peace and the assembly of an illegal demonstration. Nevertheless, Gandhi's actions, and his subsequent arrest, were to reignite the passions of the independence movement, leading the Swaraj Party's leadership to reach out to their former comrades in the Congress Party - inviting them to join the All-India United Front in early 1931, an offer which was accepted the following year (7).

    The result of these events was the gradual coalescence of the wider Indian independence movement into the All-India United Front, and a resultant improvement in the movement's efficiency and reach. With the Congress Party, Swaraj Party and Muslim Independence Party all working in concert, the bitter divisions of the past decade finally seemed to be left behind. Not since the height of the Non-Cooperation Movement had the independence movement been so unified in purpose, nor supported by so many. The imprisonment of Gandhi in response to the abortive Salt March was, if nothing else, to prove of great worth to the propaganda efforts of the United Front, who not only sought to highlight the onerous nature of the Salt Tax and sundry other colonial burdens, but also to mobilise support for their efforts amongst the masses by holding up the beloved sage as an imprisoned martyr to the cause.

    However, even as late as mid-1932 the independence movement found that it lacked the spark necessary to kickstart mass mobilisation, with particularly the MIP struggling to break through to their Muslim constituency, many of whom were far more enamoured with the prospect of a Muslim India without their Hindu neighbours raised by Shaukat Ali and the Muslim League than the secular and inclusive republic championed by the United Front. However, this all began to change with the South Mesopotamia Famine. In the span of half a year, the neglectful incompetence of the British colonial authorities had seen two Muslim colonial dependencies utterly ravaged by famine, banditry and murderous repression, all of which was covered with horrified exactitude by numerous Indian newspapers, and news that similar events were playing out in West Africa raised the spectre that one day India might be the victim of such horrors as well, more than one newspaper making comparisons to the Great Indian Famine of 1876-1878 to bring home the point.

    By this point in time, word of the ongoing Indochinese Revolt had been making the rounds in India, with some radical anti-colonialists going so far as to travel through Burma in hopes of joining the fight against colonial oppression. At the same time, there were those who sought to emulate their Indochinese compatriots with a resultant gradual increase in violent resistance to the colonial authorities by organizations such as the Anushilans and Jugantars, most prominently demonstrated in the Chittagong Armory Raid. Conducted in 1930 by communist revolutionaries the Chittagong Armoury Raid saw a police armoury captured, telephone and telegraph wires cut and train movements disrupted while the prominent local European Club was captured and its White membership held hostage. However, word of the raid spread quickly and Indian Army forces were soon dispatched from Calcutta to end the uprising while the revolutionaries discovered that the armoury lacked much in the way of meaningful ammunitions, with the result that the revolutionaries decided to make their escape, having lost hope of putting up an actual resistance to the incoming soldiers, and feeling that they had accomplished their goal of enflaming the revolutionary spirit of India. However, before departing, a national flag was hoisted from the roof of the armoury and a Provisional Revolutionary Government of India was proclaimed before the revolutionaries escaped into the Chittagong hill ranges, wherefrom they would eventually make the trek to join the Viet Quoc and ICP resistance in Indochina.

    As the fighting in Indochina proved the capacity for a revolutionary anti-colonial force to go toe-to-toe with their European occupiers, the idea of violent resistance, while far from the mind of the vast majority of the Indian population, nevertheless began to sow its seeds amongst the most radical fringe of the independence movement. The diplomatic crisis known as the Two Rivers Crisis was to firmly restore vigor to the independence movement, as Muslim sentiment shifted dramatically against the British colonial administration to a degree not seen since the heyday of the Khilafat Movement. Caliph Abdulmejid II's issuing of a fatwa against the British colonial regime set in motion the long-dormant spirit of resistance within Muslim India once more, seeing protests erupt across much of northern India, with the Muslim Independence Party swiftly endorsing the fatwa, seeking to use this fortuitous external impetus to achieve their long-held ambition of mass mobilisation.

    During this time, Jinnah took contact with his compatriots within the All-India United Front, hoping to secure their support for general peace demonstrations - a proposal which found warm support from both the Swaraj and Congress Parties. This sudden resurgence of the independence movement, and particularly their success in mustering mass support for their demonstrations, was to greatly alarm the colonial administration and the British Parliament, setting in motion a debate on the status of the Indian Raj and how precisely the British government should respond to these uncertain times. It was during this debate that Muhammad Ali Jinnah's recommendation that any debate on constitutional reforms be held in concert with the populace of India first reared its head, securing the backing of the teetering Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald, although he would fail to gain sufficient backing to the idea for its implementation before political events in Britain itself swept the debate from the parliamentary docket. Nevertheless, MacDonald did succeed in securing the dispatch of a commission to study the constitutional reforms of the past decade in India - to be led by the youthful and talented Labour parliamentarian Clement Attlee, which was to set the stage for the Attlee Commission. While these events were occurring in Britain, the United Front was moving ever closer to forming a unified structure - with the successful reunification of the Congress and Swaraj Parties under the title of All-India United Swaraj Party in late 1933 (8).

    The British conquest of Burma took nearly sixty years, and armed resistance to the British continued for a decade thereafter, culminating in the British finally adopting a policy of systematic destruction of villages and appointment of more stringent officials to troubled regions, finally bringing a measure of order by 1895. To govern their new lands, the British abolished the monarchy and forced the separation of religion and state. This act proved particularly harmful to the traditional governing structures as the local Buddhist communist, known collectively as the Sangha, were strongly dependent upon the sponsorship of the monarchy, whose policies the Sangha in turn legitimized and spread understanding of. To replace this sense of public support from the Sangha, the British instead turned towards the implementation of a secular education system which the Government of India, which was given control of the new colony, brought into effect both through the foundation of such public secular schools and by encouraging Christian missionaries to set up schools themselves. In the process Buddhism and traditional Burmese culture was put under considerable pressure. Whereas the colonial relationship to India proper had always been a complicated and multifaceted beast, the British approach to Burma proved far more ham-fisted, disregarding local customs and conventions in favour of an exploitative economic development far exceeding the tack taken in India.

    Burma's annexation ushered in a new period of economic growth in which the economic nature of society changed dramatically. The British began exploiting the rich soil of the land around the Irrawaddy River Delta and cleared away the dense mangrove forests of the region, primarily turning them to the growing of rice, which was in high demand in Europe, as the main crop grown in and exported out of Burma. To increase the production of rice, many Burmese migrated from the northern heartland to the delta, shifting the population concentrations within the country and changing the basis of wealth and power within Burma. However, in order to prepare these new land for cultivation farmers were forced to borrow money primarily from Indian moneylenders, called chettiars, at high-interest rates as British banks would not grant mortgages to the native population. At the same time, thousands of Indian laborers migrated to Burma and, because of their willingness to work for less money, quickly began to displace Burmese farmers. Burmese villagers, unemployed and under increasing economic pressure, regularly turned to crime in order to resolve the resultant economic shortfalls experienced by their families. Thus, while the economy in Burma grew, most of the power and wealth conglomerated in the hands of several British firms and migrants from India. The civil service was largely staffed by Anglo-Burmese and Indians, while the ethnic Burmese were excluded almost entirely from military service, which was staffed primarily with Indians, Anglo-Burmese, Karens and other Burmese minority groups.

    It should therefore come as little surprise that anti-colonial and independence movements within Burma enjoyed considerable local support. A new generation of Burmese leaders arose in the early twentieth century from amongst the educated classes, some of whom were permitted to go to London to study law. They returned with the belief that the Burmese situation could be improved through reform and were able to successfully argue their case to the colonial administration. Progressive constitutional reform in the early 1920s led to a legislature with limited powers, a university and more autonomy for Burma within the administration of India while efforts were also undertaken to increase the representation of Burmese in the civil service. However, these developments were matched by the growth of more forceful opposition to the colonial administration, with strikes and anti-tax protests proliferating by the end of the 1920s. Particularly prominent in these developments were the Sangha collective, with Buddhist monks prominent figures in the anti-colonial and independence movements.

    This unrest finally culminated in December of 1930 when a localised tax protest in Thrrawaddy quickly grew into a regional, and later national, insurrection against the government. Led by Saya San, a physician and former monk who had risen to prominence as a member of the General Council of Burmese Associations - the leading independence movement in Burma, the revolt had its origins in the economic dislocation experienced by the local Burmese population of particularly Lower Burma in response to Indian migration and increasingly harsh colonial rule. When earthquakes occurred at Pegu and Pyu, Saya San, who had already built a considerable following within the independence movement, used this occurrence as a demonstrable portent related to significant prophesies which stated that the throne of the King of Burma would not remain unoccupied, in order to make a claim to rulership, having himself crowned as Galon Raja on Alauntang Hill in Tharrawaddy. Saya San promised his followers that he would restore the authority and sovereignty of the Burmese monarchy, revitalise the Buddhist religion and expel the British from the land, serving as a quasi-mystical magico-religious leader promising his oath-bound followers protection by his magical charms and tattoos.

    Within weeks violence spread throughout the district of Tharrawaddy, leading British authorities, both in New Delhi and Rangoon, to dispatch armed forces to quell the rebellion. However, this effort would prove insufficient to quell the rebellion, which spread rapidly to neighbouring districts such as Pyapon, Henzada, Insein, Pegu, Toungoo, Prome and more, with sympathetic uprisings exploding across Burma. Police stations were attacked, railways dynamited, military outposts overrun, village headmen and other local collaborators were lynched and roaming gangs of rebels launched attacks on anyone unwilling to declare their allegiance to Galon Raja. Within weeks of the revolt the Rangoon authorities were seeking special emergency powers from New Delhi, leading to the appointment a Special Rebellion Commissioner by the name of Booth Gravely who began to oversee repressive efforts against the rebels in June of 1931.

    With the appointment of Gravely, the revolt took a definite turn, beginning with the issuing of an amnesty offer to those rebels who had not participated in attacks on colonial authorities or murders of officials, while troops surged into Tharrawaddy resulting in numerous skirmishes between rebel and colonial forces. In August, Gravely instituted the Emergency Powers Ordinance, muzzling the Burmese press while the colonial authorities began actively targeting known and suspected rebels while establishing concentration camps for relatives and sympathizers of the rebels. In October, British forces fought a series of bloody clashes with the "Tiger and Lion Armies" in Paungde, the most violent and effective of the rebel gangs, before crushing the "Lion Army" late in the month. However, Saya San and the Tiger Army was able to retreat into the Northern Shan State, eventually crossing over the Sino-Burmese border in early 1932 where they joined with their far more numerous, better trained and heavily armed Viet Quoc compatriots. Unrest and sporadic rebel attacks would continue throughout 1932 and 1933, coupled with near constant cross-border raids by Saya San and his increasingly professional Tiger Army - numbering a couple thousand at any one time, resulting in a constant state of low-key warfare centred primarily on the Shan States but on occasion spreading south to the more populous Irrawaddy Delta (9).

    Amanullah Khan's successful defeat of the Khost Rebellion in 1925 and the subsequent weeding out of the conservative faction was to set the tone for the decade which followed. Now secure in his position atop the Afghan throne, Amanullah redoubled his reform efforts while making an ever greater effort to make his mark internationally. He firmly established Afghanistan's independence during this period, establishing embassies in Berlin, Istanbul, Moscow, Paris and Washington while working to secure acceptance on the part of British for the new status quo. During this time, the Afghan government improved relations with Khiva by resolving the Urtatagai Crisis, established friendly relations with the Socialist government of Persia and sought to develop a following amongst the nomadic populace of northern Pessian Persia - efforts which would eventually allow for the expansion of Afghanistan in the Khorasan region during the collapse of that state.

    This period was to see major reforms, particularly on the issue women's rights under the influence of Queen Soraya Tarzi, whose sophisticated liberalism played a key role in her husband's reign. Queen Soraya herself publicly removing her Hijab and pressed the wives of government officials to follow suit. In place of her hijab, Soraya wore wide-brimmed hats with a diaphanous veil, feeling it to be a much more modern and liberating solution to the religious question of veiling women. Queen Soraya encouraged women to seek education, opening girls' schools around the country and sponsoring talented young women for higher education in the Ottoman Empire. She further founded the country's first magazine for women and toured Europe with her husband on a campaign to spread awareness of the modernist Afghan monarchy with considerable success.

    However, these efforts, word of which were spread through British-distributed pictures of the unveiled queen meeting and dining with foreign men, were to cause outrage and disgust amongst conservative tribal chiefs while the Afghan elite did all in their power to emulate the efforts of the royal court. The Khost Rebellion was to also see a shift in tribal policy on the part of Amanullah, who began a slow but steady tightening of restrictions on the powerful tribes which predominated in Afghanistan. First of all he worked to increase the divides between various conservative tribes both by pouring acrimony into various clan feuds and conflicts, while working to reward the tribes most open to his political platform. Over the course of the five years between 1925 and 1930 more than a dozen smaller and medium-sized tribes would find themselves scattered and resettled in different parts of the country as punishment for a variety of infractions, most often protests or violent resistance to government reforms, while the tribes which adopted Amanullah's liberal reforms the most were rewarded with lands and authority over their more intransigent neighbours, all while Amanullah continued to press forward with his reforms. Late in the decade the King established a national bank and pushed through new educational reforms in an effort to both improve literacy and inculcate the population with an understanding of the government's goals for modernisation, there was even debate over whether to implement a new Latinate alphabet, but this suggestion was ultimately rejected by the King.

    It was around the turn of the decade that Amanullah was first exposed to the idea of a Muslim Indian Dominion through correspondence with the esteemed Muslim Indian thinker Muhammad Iqbal. Originally a firm supporter of the Muslim League in the Punjab, Iqbal had served as one of the first party secretaries following the League's expansion to the provincial level, and had divided his time between law practice, poetry and political activism in the years since. However, he had remained a stern critic of the Indian National Congress, which he regarded as dominated by Hindus, throughout the Non-Cooperation Movement and was bitterly disappointed by the League's decision following Chauri Chaura to turn towards a pro-British stance, seeing the factional bickering which soon consumed Muslim India between the factions of both the Muslim League and Muslim Independence Party as intensely demoralising. While some had urged Iqbal to stand for election in the Punjab, he instead began to travel the Muslim world in hopes of finding inspiration for a path forward for Muslim India. During this period - between 1924-29, Iqbal was to spend time in Pessian Persia, Hashemite Arabia, Egypt and particularly the Ottoman Empire before settling down in Kabul at the court of Amanullah Khan.

    Here Iqbal found a man who he could imagine sitting at the head of Muslim India. Championing the idea of Muslim India under liberal Afghan rule, Muhammad Iqbal was able to develop a small but influential following within the Indian Independence movement, particularly the more radical of Shaukat Ali's supporters, many of whom would spend time in Kabul where Iqbal helped set up a University in 1931. The partisan infighting which was to consume the MIP in the period immediately following this was to provide further support for Iqbal's movement within Muslim India, although for the time being this movement remained more intellectual than practical, with the Two Rivers Crisis served to highlight the failures of the British colonial regime and the Fall of Pessian Persia to highlight the fact that Afghanistan was turning into an effective independent power in Central Asia (10).

    Footnotes:
    (6) The 1931 deaths of Motilal Nehru and Mohammad Ali end up becoming a defining turning point for the United Front, as it brings radicals to leadership of both the Swaraj and Muslim Independence Parties at nearly the same time. Concurrently with that we see the Muslim League adopt support for a separate Muslim Indian Dominion, in effect a Dominion of Pakistan (the name isn't quite there yet, as it was only coined in 1933 IOTL under particular circumstances). It is important to note that from this point forward the United Front parties will grow ever closer, their organizations increasingly overlapping, with a likely merging down the line. This is because the biggest stumbling block for such a union were the Pakistan-wing of the MIP, who found the very idea of working with Hindus distasteful. With them out of the way, the MIP becomes a good deal more open to cooperation with Hindus - although there is still a good deal of reticence on the part of figures like Muhammad Ali Jinnah. Also worth noting here that the Swaraj Party falls firmly into the hands of some of the most radical leaders in the party, Jawaharlal Nehru and Subhas Chandra Bose. Note that the increased disorder and lack of unity on the part of the independence movement means that there isn't the sort of unrest and disorder which IOTL led to the Round Table Conferences during this period. This fact, coupled with the ongoing bureaucratic troubles experienced by the Labour Government and that the TTL reforms of the early 1920s went further than IOTL, has meant that there has not been the same sort of push for constitutional reforms that was present IOTL.

    (7) I am sorry, but Gandhi just is not going to get a break here. It is worth noting that Gandhi does not have anything like the status he enjoyed at the height of the Non-Cooperation Movement, or IOTL at the start of the Salt March, so while he is able to draw quite a bit of attention it just isn't anywhere near the level of OTL. Secondly, we have a different Governor-General sitting in India - someone who had experience with Gandhi and his movement in the past, and as such isn't as likely to underestimate him as happened IOTL. These two factors end up playing together to allow for the disruption of the Salt March before it can really make a major mark, and Gandhi finds himself imprisoned once again when it becomes clear that the massed crowds aren't as disciplined as his hand-picked marchers. It is worth remembering that Gandhi has not had an opportunity to really hone his non-violent approach in the years between Chauri Chaura and the Salt March as he did IOTL, which means that what people mostly remember of the Non-Cooperation Movement is not its attempted non-violent approach, but rather the fact that it did end in violence. One thing to note here is that as a result of both Chauri Chaura and Gandhi's inability to demonstrate the efficiency of Satyagraha, i.e. non-violent resistance, the idea never really gets lodged in the international consciousness the way it did IOTL. There are many who laud the ambitions of Satyagraha, and plenty who view it as the ideal form of resistance, but it is viewed as unrealistic by most people ITTL due to its demonstrated failure at Chauri Chaura. Without getting a second chance to demonstrate that his ideas work, Gandhi is unable to make non-violent resistance a staple of 20th century political action as he did IOTL. That is not to say that others won't take up Gandhi's ideas, nor that this is the last we see of non-violent resistance a la Satyagraha, but rather that it remains an undemonstrated ideal rather than the semi-conventional political tool it has turned into IOTL.

    (8) The Two Rivers Crisis ends up proving the impetus for the gradual reunification of the divided independence movement, as the decision on the part of the Swaraj leadership to protest in solidarity with their Muslim compatriots greatly strengthens the brittle bonds between the two core forces of the United Front. The Two Rivers Crisis also allows for the reemergence of a truly mass independence movement after a decade of political infighting and intrigue. For the same reason we see the British begin to bring under way some of the various efforts that they undertook IOTL when India grew quiescent, although ITTL Jinnah's proposal for Round Table discussions flounders in the face of the confused and partisan political situation in Great Britain itself. Instead we see a latter-day Simon Commission dispatched under the leadership of Clement Attlee. Finally we see the divide between Congress and Swaraj Parties finally brought to a close with the merger of the two organizations. The original split was provoked by Gandhi's unwillingness to challenge the colonial authorities in the aftermath of Chauri Chaura, but with his Salt March he demonstrated that he had "regained his spine", and as such is welcomed back with open arms (probably also helps that he makes for a fantastic martyred figurehead, while Bose and Jinnah actually take charge of the movement). It is worth noting that this unification might spell trouble in the long run because the Swaraj Party has been leaning pretty far towards the left under the direction of Nehru in particular, while Vallabhbhai Patel, who ends up leading the Congress elements in the absence of Gandhi, is a hardcore right-leaning liberal ideologically. While matters of independence remain in question, they should be able to work together well, but at some point that difference in opinion is going to play a key role in events.

    (9) This is, once again, primarily OTL developments until near the end. The economic situation is no where near as bad as IOTL in Burma at the end of the 1920s, but the economic displacement of the local Burmese is greater, meaning that the effects about even out to around the level of OTL with some minor differences in what areas go into revolt when during Saya San's Revolt. Additionally, with the ongoing Indochinese Revolt and South China Revolt, there is little to prevent Saya San from slipping over to safety in China when the situation begins to turn against him in mid-late 1932. The result is an ongoing colonial struggle in Burma which, while not a major issue most of the time still serves as a constant bloody irritant.

    (10) Amanullah ends up turning towards a divide and conquer approach to the tribal population of Afghanistan which greatly weakens the ability of the Conservatives to challenge central authority. However, he does not let up on his reform program, going ever further down that path. Notably, IOTL Queen Soraya and Amanullah's trip to Europe and the British-distributed pictures therefrom ended up playing a key role in Amanullah's overthrow, however ITTL much of the conservative power has already been bled off either during the Khost Rebellion or in the minor unrest which Amanullah has been using to fracture hostile tribes since then. Finally, we have a bit of an experiment on my part with Iqbal. Given that IOTL Iqbal ended up searching for a man to lead Muslim political empowerment - and finding that leader in the form of Jinnah IOTL, I thought that given the changes to the political circumstances ITTL he might go searching elsewhere.

    Given that Jinnah is very close to the Congress-Swaraj Parties, I don't think Iqbal would be as interested in supporting him as he was IOTL, and the pro-British stance of the Muslim League would also alienate him there. As a result he does not seek political office ITTL and instead goes on an expedition to various other Muslim countries in search of inspiration. My read on the situation with Amanullah makes it seem like him and Iqbal might have had a lot to talk about and sort of similar outlooks on the political situation, which leads Iqbal to view Amanullah as his choice to lead Muslim India into independence and the proposition of a third path forward for Muslim India. So to clarify, there is the Muslim League championing a Muslim Indian British Dominion, the Muslim Independence Party campaigning for a united India alongside the United Swaraj Party and there is Iqbal's small intellectual community campaigning for what is effectively Afghan-Pakistan.

    End Note:
    Honestly, most of the time the most horrific or bizarre stuff that makes it into this TL is almost entirely OTL. Saya San's semi-mystical Kingship is just the latest example. A former monk declaring himself King, promising to protect his followers with mystical charms and talismans, while waging war against an overwhelming foreign conqueror is like something straight out of a wuxia novel, just in a much more modern setting than what you might ordinarily see.

    I hope that people enjoyed this deep dive into the affairs of the British Empire and its surroundings in South Asia. It has been quite fascinating to research all of these things, the Chittagong Armoury Raid is entirely OTL, Saya San is OTL (if under somewhat different circumstances and cut off far earlier), Amanullah's modernism is OTL (although ITTL he has crushed his opposition and as such isn't toppled at the end of the 20s) and so much more. This is a period with a surprisingly significant level of impact on the societal developments of the world outside of the regions ordinarily covered in Alt-History TLs, where a lot of the trends which were to characterise various countries throughout the coming decades were laid down.

    One thing to note is that I am switching the update schedule up a bit for the next couple of weeks due to Christmas and New Years. As such, next Sunday will have just a single section about events in Indochina and Thailand. The second section will be posted on Christmas Eve's Day (24th, in Denmark we celebrate on Christmas Eve rather than Christmas Day, part of the whole Viking Yule origins of the celebrations in Denmark). The reason I am doing this is because that second section will set the stage for some major events covered in full on New Years (31st) which should excite and intrigue all of you. I really hope you enjoy these coming weeks and that everyone makes it through the holidays happy and hale.
     
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    Update Thirty-Five (Pt. 2): The Challenge of Dominion
  • The Challenge of Dominion

    Vietnamese_soldier_holding_the_Lunge_Mine_at_H%C3%A0ng_%C4%90%E1%BA%ADu_Street_on_December_1946.jpg

    Viet Quoc Soldier Wielding a Lunge Mine

    A Siamese Upheaval​

    By the middle of 1932 the Cochinchina Rising had been crushed and all preparations for the coming French offensive against the rebels of the Tonkin Rising were well under way. During the preceding half year, as events in southern Indochina arrested French attentions, the Viet Quoc had done everything in their power to prepare for the coming assault. Extensive tunnels and defensive positions with massive stockpiles of supplies had been built up in the mountainous regions north and west of Hanoi, as well as along the Sino-Vietnamese border in preparation for a retreat into the mountains and jungles should the French assault prove too much to overcome. In the meanwhile the entire population of Tonkin was mobilized to aid in the coming struggle, men were called up to serve in the rebel forces, fishing boats and their crews were drafted into service to aid in scouting out French actions from the sea while efforts to maintain the roiling political unrest in Annam were undertaken in hopes of further delaying French actions, every day meaning a strengthened defensive position in Tonkin which might well repel the French attackers. The result of these efforts in Annam would see a total of three abortive uprisings in the region, each put down more violently than the last, to the ever greater hatred of the local populace.

    Nevertheless, while the Cochinchina Rising had proven itself a boon to the Tonkin Rebels, it also served to mobilise support in Metropolitan France for a greater investment in resources to combat the Tonkin rebels, resulting in a dramatic troop surge during the months that followed, as colonial and regular army regiments were transported half-way around the world to serve in the rapidly expanding French Far-East Expeditionary Force. Modern armaments, particularly tanks, were mustered in large numbers for what many French military thinkers expected to be a clash reminiscent of the trench warfare of the Great War, the Viet Quoc rebels having constructed several lines of defenses stretching north from Ha Tinh and Nghe An to the approaches of Hanoi itself. Ultimately, the harsh jungle terrain would make the use and maintenance of much of this expensive and difficult to maintain modern military equipment, particularly tanks and airplanes, an absolutely hellish endeavor for the French.

    In all some 140,000 men would find themselves mustered on the side of the Viet Quoc, formed around a veteran core of fighters barely 30,000 strong. By contrast the French were able to form a force numbering 180,000, of which two thirds constituted local auxiliary troops recently recruited, primarily from Laos and Cambodia, and African colonial soldiers. Additionally, the French Navy shifted a considerable force from their main fleet in the Mediterranean to the region in order to aid in the coming suppression campaign. However, while the French held an overwhelming advantage in their possession of modern weaponry, the Viet Quoc had proven themselves remarkably inventive in devising ways of countering this advantage: securing smuggled shipments of Soviet anti-tank and personnel mines from contacts in South China, discovering the destructive potential of improvised incendiary devices and developing primitive anti-armoured weaponry in the form of lunge mines, effectively a shaped explosive placed on the end of a staff which, when driven into the side of a armoured vehicle, would explode on contact, often with deadly results for both parties. Already partially developed by soldiers of the Jiangning Rebellion in China to counter the attacks of the North-East Army, lunge mines and improvised petrol bombs had seen considerable change and adaptation in the years since by both Chinese and later Vietnamese adopters (11).

    Finally, on the 8th of July 1932 the South Tonkin Offensive came under way, also known by its French operational name of Operation Papillon. A broad-based frontal assault on the defensive lines in northern Nghe An coupled with naval bombardments of Haiphong and Thanh Hoa as well as lesser assaults out of Laos into the provinces of Son La and Dien Bien targeting local Lao rebel tribes, Papillon proved a bitter and bloody struggle in which the first defensive lines were repeatedly breached only to be forced shut by intense Viet Quoc counter-attacks. Commanded by Nguyen The Nghiep, the Viet Quoc defenders fought with a ferocity and intense tenacity which was to leave a deep impression upon their attackers - never willing to give up a piece of ground without ensuring payment in blood for its loss and ever searching for an opportunity to extract an extra pound of flesh even when in retreat. The small amateur air force mustered by the Viet Quoc, made up mostly of captured fighters from the Hanoi airbase, would fight back against the overwhelming French air fleet with dedication and bloody-minded near-suicidal intensity, spoiling bombing attempts and catching advancing French ground forces by surprise while retreating whenever French fighters came hunting for the Viet Quoc air force, taking dreadful losses in both machinery and manpower all the while.

    Nevertheless, the Viet Quoc were unable to hold the line for long, and by the 22nd of July had been forced to pull out of Nghe An entirely, where a bitter and bloody campaign of repression soon followed as the families of those murdered in the various incidents of the past two years by rebel sympathisers took their bloody revenge. If the battle in Nghe An had been fierce, the fighting in the province of Thanh Hoa would prove unimaginable. Human waves of Laotian conscripts rushed forward behind French-manned tanks while heavy artillery, often complemented by naval support, bombarded the Viet Quoc lines incessantly, only for a constant barrage of incendiary devices and mines to demonstrate the troubles which were to be highlighted bare months later in the Georgian Campaign, namely that the steel used to produce the French Char D1 tanks was of a troublingly low quality, leaving it exceedingly vulnerable to many of the improvised anti-tank weapons prepared by the Viet Quoc. As a result, the advance started to bog down and the imagined hard thrust of the armored vanguard soon began to fall apart. Forced to re-examine their approach, shifting their armored units to a position of supportive fire rather than breakthrough duties, as their role had originally been envisioned to be. The result was to turn forward progress into a bitter slog, as the Viet Quoc contested every challenge, with the result that by the end of August the frontlines were only just beginning to near the city of Thanh Hoa.

    Increasingly embarrassed by their failures to simply crush the resistance they faced, the leadership of the French, under the direction of General Charles Huntziger, found themselves forced to search for a solution. While the smaller advances out of Laos had seen some success, they soon got bogged down in the face of harsh terrain and were unable to press onward, thereby eliminating one path forward considered by Huntziger's staff. Instead it would be Vice-Admiral Francois Darlan, who was commanding the French naval squadron in Indochina, whose proposal would find Huntziger's approval. Having conducted an intense bombardment of Haiphong and a brief landing of marines, Darlan had been surprised at the relatively weak defenses in the city and had, following a second naval bombardment in mid-August, become convinced that a landing at Haiphong was possible. The hope was that with control of the city, the French would be able to fundamentally undermine the defensive position currently enjoyed by the Viet Quoc defenders in Thanh Hoa.

    As a result, on the 14th of September 1932 Darlan would command an ambitious amphibious landing at the Do Son Beach near Haiphong under an intense bombardment of the meagre defenders, with the landing force spreading through Haiphong, fighting through scattered defensive strong points held by barely trained volunteers, with the city secured by the evening of the 16th. With Haiphong now under French control, Huntziger ordered a new series of assaults in Thanh Hoa, in the process securing control of the city itself while seeking to hold the defenders in place while forces were rushed up the well-maintained roads from Haiphong to Hanoi.

    As word of these events reached both Hanoi and the General Staff under Nguyen The Nghiep at the front in Ninh Binh, the Viet Quoc leadership set in motion the various evacuation plans they had in place for the capital, transferring the government first to Yen Bai and later into the mountains between Yen Bai and Son La, while Nguyen The Nghiep began pulling forces away from the front and dispatching them into the countryside. The forces advancing from Haiphong met bloody resistance on the road to Hanoi, but by October they were in sight of the city and a week later in control of it, in the process securing the demolished Hanoi Air Base, which had seen what little remained of the Viet Quoc air force destroyed and the landing strip ruined in any and every way imaginable, it ultimately being deemed cheaper to rebuild a new airfield elsewhere rather than spend on repairs for the sabotaged area. A third and final general offensive by Huntziger's forces would break through the skeleton defences left behind at the Thanh Hoa front days later, bringing to a close the First Conventional Phase of the Tonkin Rising by the close of September 1932 (12).

    The retaking of Hanoi represented a great success for the French colonial authorities, but it was far from enough to end the conflict. Key to understanding the Unconventional Phase which followed is the landscape of Tonkin itself. Tonkin was divided into two general sections, the Red River Delta, where the majority of the state's populace lived either in smaller and larger towns, small farming villages or the few large cities of Haiphong and Hanoi, and the heavily forested mountainous regions which surrounded the river valley. It was into this latter part of Tonkin, largely peopled by tribal populations who held mixed attitudes towards the rebels, that the Viet Quoc retreated following the Fall of Haiphong, and from there that they would direct a bitter and bloody insurgency which was to consume an inordinate amount of time and resources on the part of the colonial authorities.

    Under Martial Law, Tonkin would see constant raids and reprisals, assassinations, bombing and ambushes by the resistance movement, who retreated into their mountain strongholds at the first sign of pursuits, while the French authorities were left to crack down ever more harshly on the populace which remained, in the process serving as the most effective recruiting sergeants imaginable on behalf of the resistance. During this period there was a considerable shift of Viet Quoc resources across the Sino-Vietnamese border and a significantly strengthened level of cooperation between the South China Jiaxing Communists and the Viet Quoc, which also was to play a role in shifting the ideological foundations of the resistance movement. It was as part of this growing relationship that the Indochinese Communist Party under Nguyen Ai Quoc first began to integrate itself into the Viet Quoc resistance, forming a United Revolutionary Front under the leadership and direction of Nguyen Thai Hoc and Nguyen Khac Nhu, with Nguyen Ai Quoc appointed as liaison to the Jiaxing Communist leadership.

    Despite these successes, the last months of 1932 and early 1933 were to prove amongst the hardest for the rebel movement, as thousands abandoned the cause in the face of its perceived failure as the French retaliatory policies began to cause considerable harm to the Tonkin populace. Particularly the French Foreign Legion, who took command of the repressive efforts from the countless fortifications built during the prior century for that exact purpose, was to make a name for itself with its bloody-handed tenacity and willingness to butcher their way through any opposition on their country-side patrols while auxiliary forces found themselves constantly pressed into action on the hardest raids into the mountains. Morale, initially buoyed by the successful capture in Haiphong and Hanoi, began to turn sour for the French as the conflict continued with no end in sight.

    Increasingly angered at his men's inability to maintain control of the border or to bring the rebels out into the open, Huntziger would order the construction of several major French army bases at Lang Son, Cao Bang, Ha Giang and Lao Cai - four towns located at major crossroads near the Sino-Vietnamese border, with the aim of securing control of the border marches, seeking to cut the Viet Quoc off from reinforcements and supplies from South China. However, to secure the roads to these four bases, the French were forced to push through largely hostile territory, constantly under threat of ambush, and under threat from road-side explosives and attacks. Nevertheless, after spending most of the Spring and early Summer securing control of the roads to the four bases Huntziger was finally able to accomplish his goal. One after another, the Lang Son, Cao Bang, Ha Giang and Lao Cai bases came into operation over the course of July and August of 1933, significantly weakening cross-border crossings.

    Under ever greater pressure, Nguyen The Nghiep laid out plans for a counterstroke in late 1933 which would hopefully allow the Viet Quoc to deal a harsh blow to the occupiers. In The Nghiep's plans, the two bases at Cao Bang and Ha Giang, furthest from French control and deep in Viet Quoc country, would be the focus of major offensive actions with the aim of overrunning the bases, capturing the modern military equipment so recently moved to the bases and dealing a devastating blow to the colonial authorities. Choosing to focus on Ha Giang to begin with, Nghiep had local forces around Cao Bang begin fierce interdiction efforts along the precariously located roads leading to the military base as a distraction, drawing French focus and forces to the region, while Viet Quoc regulars were mustered in immense numbers in the forested mountains surrounding the Ha Giang Military Base.

    Finally, on the 4th of October 1933 the Ha Giang Offensive came under way. Beginning with attacks throughout the base by infiltrators from the local population, primarily small bombing attacks on military outposts and a series of assassinations targeting military officers in the camp, the base came under a sudden and intense bombardment by hand-carried Japanese-made mortars bought at ruinous prices from Japanese smugglers and smuggled cross-country by foot and cart all the way from Hong Kong, before a general assault was brought under way. All of these events occurred within a couple hours of dawn, such that the defenders were left confused and shocked by the sudden violence, leaving the initial defensive efforts anemic. However, as the day grew later and word was dispatched to Hanoi begging for reinforcements, the tide seemed to begin to turn. However, with knowledge that the fighting had to be concluded as swiftly as possible to avoid being caught out by French reinforcements, Nguyen The Ngiep redoubled offensive actions, sacrificing lives for time, and finally secured the breakthrough he had been looking for in the early evening. While French aircraft rushed from Hanoi made their presence known, strafing the lines of the attackers and dropping a few bombs, they were unable to make much of a dent on the attackers who set about sacking the army base.

    Prisoners were taken in large numbers, nearly 800 Frenchmen and another 2,000 local auxiliaries, alongside a largely intact artillery park and an immense armoury, all of which were disassembled and rushed into the mountains on the backs of thousands of labourers brought in from the countryside to aid the Viet Quoc's efforts. Discussions on what to do with the prisoners raged back and forth, but eventually the local auxiliaries were executed en masse as traitors while the Frenchmen were split up and transported into the mountains, where it was hoped that they could be held for ransom or potentially even as pieces in the hoped for peace negotiations they hoped would soon follow. The conditions under which these French prisoners were to live in captivity were to vary greatly depending on their captors, with some living and working as laborers alongside Viet Quoc sympathisers, eating and sleeping alongside them, while others were tortured, humiliated and even murdered by those who held a grudge against the French colonisers. By the time French reinforcements arrived at Ha Giang it would prove too late, the attackers melting away into the mountainous countryside.

    Huntizger's Four Base Plan came under intense scrutiny and criticism in the months that followed, eventually culminating in the abandonment of the Cao Bang base after skirmishes around the base escalated and Huntziger's replacement as Commander-in-Chief of the French Far-East Expeditionary Force by General Benoit Besson. Besson had been on the staff of General Galliéni and Lanrezac while they served on the Superior War Council of France in the pre-Great War years before rising through the ranks as a front-line commander and eventual Chief of Staff on French Army Corps engaged in Champagne during the last years of the Great War, making him an insider's insider in the French Army. Notably, Besson had served his entire career in France in one form or another, having reached the position of General of the Army in late 1933 when his appointment to Indochina came through. A career military man with plenty of experience but few clear successes to his name, Besson was in search of a campaign which would allow him to make his name and ascend into the hallowed ranks of Marshals of France (13).

    The arrival of Benoit Besson was to coincide with a decided shift in French fortunes, as support for the Viet Quoc resistance surged in the aftermath of Ha Giang and the closing of Cao Bang. The loss of these two bases, while signalling both a major morale victory and a significant improvement in armaments for the rebels, would prove most important for its role in once more clearing the Sino-Vietnamese border for cross-border interactions with the Jiaxing Communists. This was to prove of considerable importance due to the series of military campaigns waged under the command of Zhang Xueliang against the Jiaxing Communists in South China during these years, and the resultant slow retreat across the border into Indochina by the rebel Chinese.

    This influx of manpower brought with it not only hardened and veteran soldiers and arms to aid in the material conflict with the French, but also provided a considerable injection of revolutionary zeal as Chinese exiles took up the anti-colonial crusade with ardent fervour, redirecting their rage and hurt at the suppression of their movement at home against the French. Day by day the number of men crossing the border grew, first in the dozens, then in their hundreds and their thousands, before the final mass exodus between Late May and September of 1934 was to bring nearly a million Chinese Communists streaming across the border within a month.

    Already in January did the French begin to feel this pressure, as Viet Quoc assaults took on an ever more feverish pace and the numerous small forts constructed and garrisoned by Foreign Legion forces began to be overrun one by one. Yen Bai was to be the site of yet another major clash of the revolt as artillery looted from Camp Ha Giang made its first appearance on the battlefield in February, smashing through the walls of the small forts constructed to defend the town during the previous year, while the central fortress was forced to surrender after a week of bloody assaults. French relief forces were to find themselves stymied near the town of Viet Tri, at the confluence of the Red and Lo Rivers, where a ramshackle fireship - little more than a local fishing boat loaded with explosives - was rammed into the ship ferrying the relief force and sunk, some 300 men out of the 500 aboard drowning in the ensuing chaos. Thai Nguyen, Tuyen Quang, Son Tay, Lao Cai and Lang Son across the north all fell between March and May of 1934, as the resurgent Viet Quoc gradually shifted away from their insurgent tactics and back towards conventional confrontation with the French.

    By this time the immense amounts of resources invested by the French in combatting the insurgency had begun to make their mark on the colony as a whole, with disorder and dissatisfaction marking particularly the local auxiliaries, who found themselves shunned and hunted by their neighbours. Even in Laos, until this point something of a stronghold of support for the French administration, the constant calls for volunteers and their high casualties had forced the colonial rulers to shift to a policy of conscription, to the utter outrage of the local populace. The Fall of Son La was to mark the start of the Laotian resistance movement, as the nearly 15,000 Laotian conscripts captured by the Viet Quoc were exposed to a constant barrage of anti-colonialist propaganda before being dispatched back across the Laotian border to return to their villages and agitate against their exploitation by the colonial overlords.

    On the 3rd of June 1934, the first major direct clash of conventional forces since the Fall of Hanoi in 1932 would occur in the Battle of Phuc Yen fought between 48,000 advancing Viet Quoc-Jiaxing forces and a French force numbering around 32,000 compromised primarily of local auxiliaries and African colonial troops. The resultant clash was to be an intense affair, soon growing with alarming haste as both Viet Quoc and French commands sought to rush more troops onto the battlefield. Initially slamming home against the French defenders, the Viet Quoc had succeeded in driving back the French and convincing a local auxiliary regiment to mutiny, switching sides to the Viet Quoc, before heavy reinforcements from the Hanoi garrison - made up primarily of French regulars, ground the advance to a halt. The Battle of Phuc Yen would swing back and forth over the following twenty days before a flanking attack by Jiaxing reinforcements out of Thai Nguyen succeeded in forcing the French into retreat for fear of envelopment. Ongoing clashes near Haiphong would escalate in the months that followed, only for the Viet Quoc forces to be fought to a halt along the Ho Da Nang River some ten kilometres north of Haiphong, the heavy guns of the French Navy in Haiphong greatly aiding the defenders.

    However, the real turning point in the 1934 campaign was to come in October when the city of Hai Durong went into revolt. Located on the central road between Haiphong and Hanoi, the Hai Durong Rebellion cut the lines of communication and supply to Hanoi at a critical moment. While Viet Quoc reinforcements were rushed towards Hai Durong, the French moved to remove the obstruction in time with considerable violence against the civilian population. The resultant Battle of Hai Durong, fought between 18th of October and 22nd of December, was to see the city change hands a full three times before pressure on Hanoi from the north forced the abandonment of the central Red River Delta by French forces. Finally, on the 27th of December the Viet Quoc were able to march through the streets of Hanoi in glory, while the French retreated towards the coast. Haiphong was strongly fortified while the cities of Nam Dinh, Thai Binh and Phu Ly were transformed into a shield to protect Annam from the Viet Quoc advance. As 1935 dawned, the situation in Indochina was turning firmly against the French as the Viet Quoc and their allies in the Indochinese Communist Party and Jiaxing Communist Chinese surged out of their mountain-side bases. However, the sudden arrival of a million foreign mouths was already beginning to cause problems as the fundamentally nationalist Viet Quoc movement found itself forced to deal with a foreign political movement much more closely aligned with their primary rivals in the struggle for independence than themselves (14).

    The defining dynamic in Siamese politics had long been of repeated swings between modernisers and traditionalists. These two political poles were defined by questions of monarchism, absolutism, industrialisation and politics of the elite. Notably, the Siamese kings had proven themselves talented rulers who were able to maintain the country's fragile independence as one of a very small number of Asian countries free of colonial rule. Already in 1868 had modernisation efforts begun, with countless reforms implemented during the reign of King Chulangkorn (Rama V) ranging from the implementation of a modern education system to military, administrative legal, political, commercial and healthcare reforms.

    In 1910 Chulangkorn was succeeded by his son Vajiravudh, officially crowned as Rama VI, a Sandhurst and Oxford graduate who continued many of his father's modernisation efforts including the appointment of able commoners to the government and the establishment of Siam's first University. However, Vajiravudh's reforms stoked anger on both sides of the divide, amongst the older reactionary members of the aristocracy and nobility who saw their influence gradually eroded and amongst progressives and radicals who felt the continuation of absolutist rule and the slow and measured pace of reforms insufficient to the needs of the state. 1912 would see a failed palace revolt by young military officers hoping to overthrow the absolutist ancien régime in favor of a modern Westernised constitutional system, leading the King to turn largely against modernisation and constitutional reforms in the years that followed. Vajivarudh was to enter Siam into the Great War in 1917 in hopes of gaining favors from the British and French at the peace table and, while their efforts proved token at best, Vajivarudh was able to secure the repeal of 19th-century unequal treaties and the restoration of full Siamese sovereignty from both Allied and Central Powers at Copenhagen.

    While this victory gained the king some popularity, it was swiftly undercut by his overt extravagance and lack of a son, highlighted by the economic troubles of the early 1920s and court intrigues over the succession. When Vajivarudh died in 1925 he was succeeded by his Eton-educated youngest brother Prajadhipok as King Rama VII, a relatively weak candidate for the throne compared to many of his elder siblings, who turned to Prajadhipok to prevent violence from breaking out over the succession. Inheriting a country in crisis, Prajadhipok found the state on the verge of bankruptcy, often using the treasury to hide the deficits of the privy purse, the government forced to subsidise the many princes and their lavish lifestyles, Prajadhipok himself having been the 33rd son and 76th child of 77 by his father King Chulalongkorn.

    Following his coronation, the young king established the Supreme Council of State to aid in resolving the various troubles which had emerged under Vajivarudh, initially staffing it with various experienced senior princes and nobles with ministerial experience from prior administrations, who in turn rapidly began to replace commoners appointed under Vajivarudh further down in the bureaucracy with fellow conservative nobles and aristocrats. Most significant of these princes was to be Prince Paribatra Sukhhumbandhu, the king's older half-brother, heir to the throne and Minister of the Interior. Prajadhipok would prove himself a rather compassionate ruler, ordering considerable cuts in palace expenditures, travelling the country extensively to meet and learn about the lives of his subjects and making himself available to the ever-growing Bangkok elite by carrying out a variety of civic duties which brought him into close contact with those outside the insular aristocracy (15).

    Nevertheless, this period was marked by the growth of disillusion and dissatisfaction amongst the commoner elite, many of whom had been educated in the west and adopted many western ideals in the process, and who saw themselves without opportunity for advancement in the face of entrenched aristocratic elites, stuck in what they viewed as a comparatively backwards country. It was this yawning gap between the princely Supreme Council and an increasingly rebellious commoner elite which was to prove the defining dynamic in the period leading up to the 6th of April 1932 when the ruling Chakri Dynasty was to celebrate its 150th anniversary of rule over Siam. Under ordinary circumstances this approaching anniversary would have been a time of celebration, but fears stemming from an alleged prophecy dating back to the days of King Rama I, which predicted the end of the dynasty on its 150th anniversary, drew a dark cloud over the coming proceedings. It was with this in mind that the King had put all of his efforts into the drafting of a constitution with which he hoped to introduce mass democracy to Siam, relying on the help of two minor princes and an American foreign policy advisor by the name of Raymond Bartlett Stevens. Despite advice that his people were not yet ready for democracy, and strong objections from many of the princes seated on the Supreme Council, Prajadhipok insisted upon this course of action, leading to the signing into law of the April 1932 Siamese Draft Constitution (16).

    There were a number of developments which played a role in spurring King Prajadhipok to press for a democratic constitution in spite of bitter resistance from various conservative voices. From the start of his reign, Prajadhipok had been surrounded by overbearing high-ranking Chakri princes who dominated governmental affairs and rarely allowed the King influence in actual governance matters. Already struggling with the economic malaise created by his predecessor's administration, the King struggled to actually resolve the problem, while he was able to cut palace expenditures, his princely ministers fiercely resisted any efforts to weaken their positions. Instead, the royal government had turned increasingly towards measures which placed the burden of paying for the economic troubles upon the commoner elites, with low-ranking bureaucrats and soldiers seeing reductions in pay even as they were largely kept from higher positions of power. The resulting unhappiness which resulted from this status quo had led to growing awareness of Western ideals of democracy, nationalism and communism, as well as the exploitative nature of the absolutist ruling system. With King Prajadhipok's constant travelling and networking with these commoner elites, it was natural for him to find inspiration in their words and ideas, convincing him that there was general support amongst the populace for his planned democratic reforms.

    The 1932 Constitution set out a series of basic rights and outlined the process whereby a People's Assembly of 70 appointed members, selected by the King, were to work towards establishing a permanent constitution for Siam. In an effort to draw the various factions together and appease his princely relatives, this assembly drew not only from the commoner classes but also the aristocracy. Already strongly questioned by many, this attempt at bringing together the various major factions was to prove unsuccessful, as Commoners and Aristocrats proved not only divided amongst themselves but at constant odds with each other. Established in late May of 1932, People's Assembly was meant to present its permanent constitution by December of that year with plans for democratic elections in November of 1933, however by mid-September 1932 the body had still to even agree upon a preamble for the Constitution. Conflicts were bitter and partisan bickering near constant. Lacking organization, the Commoners fell out amongst each other along particularly Liberal and Conservative lines, while the Aristocrats, while largely aligned along a anti-democratic line of argumentation were bitterly divided by personal differences. The result was that all it took was a charismatic figure to emerge for the Assembly to spin out of control.

    That came in the figure of the radical Commoner Pridi Banomyong who had been selected for his role as a charismatic law professors at Siam's first University. Already a public campaigner for democratic reforms, Pridi sought to rally support from amongst the Commoner factions by side-lining ideological differences in favour of weakening aristocratic power, even succeeding in drawing some support from a couple minor princes and their aristocratic following to shape the resultant constitution. Given the short deadline, Pridi was able to sit as framer and drafter for the majority of the constitution between October and November - with only limited input from anyone else, before presenting a unified constitution to the assembly in late November. Caught off guard by the proposal of a fully formed constitution which they had had little involvement in, the princes could do little but protest as Pridi secured a majority in favour of his proposal, having no proposal of their own to challenge it with. The result was the signing into law of the December 1932 Siamese Constitution by King Prajadhipok to considerable opposition on the part of the princely Supreme Council, which was abolished with a proper cabinet to replace it after the November elections (17).

    The result was the loss of official control over vast swathes of the government infrastructure by many of the Chakri princes and a fundamental undermining of the King's primary reason for being given and holding the throne, that he should be a non-entity. The biggest loser in all of this was, without a doubt, Marshal-Admiral Paribatra Sukhumbandhu, Prince of Nakhon Sawan and the King's eldest living brother. Not only was Prince Nakhon Sawan Chief of Staff of the Royal Army and Commander of the Royal Navy, he also happened to be serving as Naval Minister, Army Minister, Defence Minister and Privy Councillor all at the same time, in effect the single most powerful figure before the passing of the constitution and the greatest threat to its promises. It did not take long for the powerful prince to act. Contacting several of his siblings and nephews, most significantly Prince Chula Chakrabongse, his half-Russian nephew and a figure who had been held up as an alternative to Prajadhipok's candidacy following the death of Vajivarudh in 1925, and the retired military leader Prince Boworadet who had resigned from his post in protest at the democratic reforms. In May of 1933 Sukhumbandhu and his supporters were finally moved to act.

    Calling themselves the National Rescue Council, the conspirators set in motion a coup called the Deer Plan. Across the districts surrounding Bangkok, disgruntled soldiers recruited by Boworadet rose up, seizing the Don Maeng Aerodrome and overrunning several key defensive positions where artillery and machine guns were captured. With Sukhumbandhu urging on other princes to support the effort, figures like the Prince of Singha, foremost man in the Navy, and Prince Kamphangphet, the father of Thai Radio and Railways, soon fell into line. Railways ground to a halt for the Loyalists as the situation quickly deteriorated for Prajadhipok. All of this culminated in Prajadhipok's flight from the palace, wherefrom he and his family, including the nephews and nieces he had chosen to adopt as his successors, fled into exile in Japan. Sukhumbandhu established a Regency Council soon after, suspended the recently passed constitution and secured the appointment of Prince Chula Chakrabongse as King Rama VIII by late June 1933 while Pridi Banomyong and various other commoners who had played various roles in the People's Assembly were placed under arrest. The abortive democratization efforts had fallen flat on their face and the boiling anger and dissatisfaction of the commoner elite was forcefully returned to a simmer by the new ruling council, who resurrected the Supreme Council once more (18).

    Footnotes:
    (11) IOTL it did not take long before various anti-tank weapons began to emerge - most famously the Molotov Cocktail in Finland, but there were a varied assortment during the Spanish Civil War as well, so I feel these developments would be plausible that bit earlier. The lunge mines, which came into use under the Japanese late in WW2, don't seem too complex to make nor is the idea completely out there for a rebel force in dire need of something to counter their better equipped opponents - necessity is the mother of invention as they say. These forces are large, but I don't feel they are implausible under the circumstances. They are around a third of the forces which would be engaged in the First Indochinese War of OTL, and there is a somewhat greater investment of French troops than IOTL because I feel that the military leadership would be more open to such efforts ITTL considering that the reliability of the local auxiliaries remains questionable.

    (12) The Viet Quoc prove both prepared for failure and tenacious in preventing defeat. Once again (although in actuality it occurs concurrently with the Georgian Campaign) the shortcuts taken in mass producing French tanks comes back to bite their users, eventually forcing them to withdraw them from breakthrough duties - something they weren't really designed to do in the first place, but the military was unwilling to dispatch medium and heavy tanks to a colonial theater. Ultimately it requires cross-service cooperation and considerable bloody sacrifices for the French to break through the Viet Quoc defenses. However, this is far from the end of the Indochinese Revolt - all they have accomplished is to send the rebels into the countryside wherefrom they will continue to plague their French occupiers while working to build up their positions to restart conventional warfare.

    This link should give a decent map of where all the mentioned towns and cities are: https://www.google.dk/maps/@20.2116581,105.7415618,8.59z

    (13) Despite losing their central positions, the Viet Quoc continue fighting like madmen to the great frustration of the French. It is worth noting that the military bases are based on some of the tactics utilised in the First Indochinese War, although here the need to close off the borderlands mean that there is considerably greater investment in these bases than might otherwise have occurred and as a result the loss of Ha Giang proves so much more bitter. Besson's career is largely based on OTL, where he seems to have been a steady ranker who rose up through the military without too much difficulty but lacked a chance to really prove himself.

    (14) The Indochinese Revolt is back, having gradually ground down their French occupiers, and things are starting to look bleak for the colonial administration. However, the arrival of a million Chinese is not something easily ignored, the Jiaxing Communists are going to be an ongoing headache for the Viet Quoc leadership who, while appreciating the considerable increase in manpower and weaponry they provide, find this influx of foreigners rather vexing. The idea of defeated rebels going on to play a role in a neighbouring state is by no means new, hell, the Congo Wars were ignited by Rwandan Hutus carrying out cross-border raids and eventually migrating into the DRC IOTL. This is a somewhat more benevolent migration, but it shares many of the complications that such developments would result in.

    (15) Up to this point everything has basically been playing out as per OTL with the exception that the unequal treaties and sovereignty issues were only resolved IOTL in 1920 on the part of the US and 1925 for the French and British - here it is written in as part of the Treaty of Copenhagen, making Siam one of the real winners coming out of the Great War. I find Thailand an intensely fascinating country during the period of colonisation for the ability with which the Siamese monarchy was able to manoeuvre the various colonial powers to providing their benefits to the Thai people while maintaining their independence. I think that after Japan, Thailand has to be the country which proved most adept at modernisation and westernisation efforts.

    (16) I feel like I am repeating myself constantly, but once again the lack of a Great Depression plays havoc on the TL. IOTL it took a while before the impact of the Great Depression struck, first really having an impact in 1930, but it was to prove a key development for the country which sent it whirling into constitutional crisis, coups and dictatorships. While the economic situation is bad, with the country struggling to pull itself out of the ground, it is nowhere near as bad as IOTL. Without the significant troubles of the period preceding his 1932 effort at enforcing a constitution, Prajadhipok is in a better position to push forward with his reforms and less likely to retreat in the face of opposition from the Supreme Council. As such, he is able to push forward with his democratic reforms despite pretty fierce opposition from the princes. However, such a unilateral action, trampling all over the power and authority of the Supreme Council, presents a worrying precedent which the princes are unlikely to take lying down.

    (17) The single most important development shifting events in Siam is the fact that the Khana Ratsadon does not get formed in Paris in 1927. IOTL this People's Party was formed to function as a vanguard party to impose constitutional rule because its mixed military-civilian membership did not feel the country's people ready for a wide-scale popular revolution. ITTL the idea of vanguard parties has nowhere near the same sort of support given how events in Russia played out a good deal differently, and as such organisation on the commoner side of things is a lot more disorganised and disunited. This process of a Draft Constitution replaced by a proper constitution written by an appointed (i.e. undemocratic) People's Assembly is based on the approach taken to do the same IOTL after the 1932 Siamese Revolution. However, instead of Khana Ratsadon controlling all the seats we get a brawling mess of factions and infighting which just worsens relations on all sides. Nevertheless Pridi is able to make a major mark and is central to the formulation of the resulting constitution.

    (18) This coup is based in large part of Boworadet's OTL Rebellion, although with far more support on the side of the rebels. With Prajadhipok having alienated the princes and the commoners still not in power by way of the elections the Siamese government is at its weakest when the single most powerful figure in the country acts. The result is a complete rollback of all Prajadhipok's efforts and his exile. I should mention that the nieces and nephews mentioned here are the three children of Mahidol Adulyadej, Prince of Songkla, as well as Prajadhipok's wife. It is worth mentioning that just because the princes have re-secured power does not mean that they will be able to hold on to it in the long run. A reminder that you have a major Communist-Nationalist revolt ongoing in Indochina to the east and a Burmese insurgency to the west, as well as an exiled king - to mention nothing of a commoner elite burning with rage after seeing their long-dreamed of constitutional reforms given to them, only for the hard won effort to go up in flames. Fun times are coming to Siam.

    End Note:

    The section dealing with Thailand honestly was one of the most complicated and difficult to work out. The situation is well covered and there are a ton of different ways for things to play out, but I do know that I could not stick to OTL. It was not so much a matter of having no idea of where to go, but rather having far too many ideas of where to go. There were a frankly astonishing number of factors to take into account and a lot of work plotting out where everything fits for the changed circumstances.

    I am sorry about cutting off at this point, but the next sections are going to be the focus of my Christmas and New Years updates as mentioned in my prior end note and I want to avoid spoiling things. Things are going to get a bit crazy for the next couple updates.
     
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    Update Thirty-Five (Pt. 3): The Challenge of Dominion
  • The Challenge of Dominion

    640px-Rebel_troops_in_February_26_Incident.JPG

    Cadets of the Imperial Military Academy with Prince Takahito

    A Nation Divided​

    The decade of rule under Yamamoto Gonbee was to prove a critically important period of relative peace and prosperity for the Japanese Empire. Under his leadership, the nascent Japanese democracy had seen explosive growth and entrenchment through years of stability while politically engaging large swathes of the population. The chaos and turmoil of the early 20s had largely been quelled and economic prosperity been allowed to flourish largely unhindered. However, once one began to scratch away at the surface of things, worrying trends began to emerge from the depths. Under Yamamoto the far-left and far-right had been allowed to rise to prominence, Nippon Kyosanto as a distrusted ally of the ruling center-left Rikken Minseito and the rapidly growing Kokumin Domei as at once challenger and potential supporter of the center-right Rikken Seiyukai. At the same time the radically political Emperor Genka had ascended to the throne, immediately interfering with political affairs to an extent not even seen under the great Emperor Meiji, placing an even greater burden upon the shoulders of the elderly Prime Minister. Particularly the last year and a half preceding Yamamoto's resignation on the 14th of October 1935 was to be marked by the expanding influence of the Kokumin Domei on Japan's political discourse. A far-right ultra-nationalist party with significant integralist flavor, the Kokumin Domei had the overt support and backing of the Emperor, who had gone so far as to attend several party functions and party rallies by the time of the prime minister's resignation, and as a result had been able to claim that they were the sole legitimate monarchist party in Japan - and that support for any other party was tantamount to heresy and treason according to their interpretation of State Shinto principles. However, despite their powerful backers and influential members, the party itself was unable to muster anything close to the popular following enjoyed by any of the other major parties and as such saw itself forced to consider a political alliance with one of the mainstream if they were to have any hope of influencing government politics. By the middle of 1935 the Kokumin Domei were in constant contact with the Rikken Seiyukai leadership, seeking to work out a cooperative agreement with the only major party displaying any sort of interest in working with them. However, while Inukai Tsuyoshi, leader of the Seiyukai, found himself on relatively good terms with Hiranuma Kiichiro, the official leader of the Kokumin Domei, Inukai remained incredibly hesitant when it came to the idea of cooperating with the Kokumin Domei. Inukai had found himself drawn to Hiranuma's moderation, particularly when contrasted with other Kokumin Domei members, Hiranuma's past as a member of the Yamamoto Government, during which time he had even served as Minister of Justice in 1923-24 and 27-28, and the general congeniality and friendship which existed between the two men. The reason for Inukai's worries lay more with the fact that behind Hiranuma sat a collection of some of the most radical ultra-nationalists in Japan, from the rabblerousing populist Nakano Seigo to the bloody-minded Araki Sadao, who wanted nothing so much as to tear down the democratic edifice of Japan in favor of an Imperial dictatorship under Emperor Genka in the name of spiritually purifying Japan of all foreign elements. Moreover, as Yamamoto sickened over the course of his last year in office and his grip on Minseito weakened, the prospect of Rikken Seiyukai rising to power independent of any coalition partner became ever more likely, weakening what little impetus had been propelling Inukai towards cooperating with the Kokumin Domei. In fact, it was in response to the rise of the Seiyukai and the emergence of internal power struggles within the ruling party, that the idea of forming a United Front with Nippon Kyosanto in the coming elections, first rose to prominence within Minseito at the insistence of Home Minister Adachi Kenzo - one of the most prominent figures within the party and a potential successor to Yamamoto as leader of the party. At the time, Minseito was itself rather bitterly divided between the bureaucratic Kanryoha faction and the partisan Tojinha faction - the former being linked to the business community and the privileged classes, while the latter was connected to the party's reformist spirit and held deep connections to the middle class. Belonging to the Tojinha faction, Adachi Kenzo was widely seen as the right-hand man of Baron Reijiro Wakatsuki - the most likely figure to succeed Yamamoto as leader of Minseito, and as such his decision to seek out cooperation with the radical Kyosanto was seen as a major political shift for the faction, signaling the arrival of Nippon Kyosanto as a major force in Japanese politics. However, Reijiro's ascension to leadership was far from secure, as the Kanryoha faction pushed forward the dignified and experienced statesman Hamagushi Osachi, with ministerial experience stretching back to before the Great War, as their candidate to succeed the old Admiral Yamamoto. For the first time since its formation, Rikken Minseito found itself with divided leadership - Yamamoto having proven a talented politician capable of balancing between the two factions for the duration of his administration but a man unable to establish a clear successor for his party and government (19).

    With Yamamoto's resignation in mid-October, the stage was set for a series of bitter intra- and inter-party clashes as all factions sought to secure the greatest level of influence over the future course of the Japanese government. At the heart of the matter lay the struggle between the Kanryoha and Tojinha factions of Minseito and the issue of cooperation with Kyosanto. At the time, it was becoming ever clearer that the major divisions within Minseito were threatening to break the party apart and that the party would likely be unable to muster sufficient support independently to secure victory in the elections. However, the prospect of cooperation with Kyosanto raised considerable resistance amongst the business-elite supporters of Minseito, who rallied around Hamagushi Osachi and the Kanryoha faction in order to head off this measure - some even going so far as to say that it would be better for the party to lose power than work with Kyosanto. As matters heated up, the intensity of intra-party conflict in Minseito rose to a bitter highpoint when the stalwart Kanryoha figure Machida Chuji, a long-time cabinet minister and prominent businessman, threatened to leave the party outright for Rikken Seiyukai should the party leadership decide to ally with Kyosanto. However, this would prove a step too far for many in the leadership, who retained a fierce pride in their membership of Rikken Minseito and viewed Machida's threat as a betrayal of the party. From hereon out, the tide swung firmly back in favor of the Tojinha faction, allowing Baron Reijiro Wakatsuki to emerge as the leader of Rikken Minseito at the Minseito Party Conference held in Tokyo in early November to determine the candidate going into the January 1936 elections. With the Tojinha victory came the proposal of a United Front with Nippon Kyosanto, an offer which was taken up by the leadership group in Kyosanto. Primarily championed by Yamakawa and Fukumoto, the proposal was met with considerable concern on the part of Kita Ikki who feared that the party would simply end up subordinated to the larger, more popular and, worst of all, bourgeoisie Rikken Minseito. The announcement of the United Front was to place the ball firmly in Inukai Tsuyoshi's court, presenting him with a major challenge to his hopes of victory. As the party of opposition for the last decade, Rikken Seiyukai had fallen far from its glory days in the first decades of the century, only really experiencing a surge in support beginning in 1930 when the former leader of the party, Tanaka Giichi, handed over leadership to Inukai Tsuyoshi. Once a member of the ruling coalition under Yamamoto, Inukai had fallen out with the intensely capable and charismatic Admiral-Prime Minister mostly over the latter's support of the Navy's left-wing and the resultant weakening of the military on a political level which, when coupled with the limitations of Inukai's political ambitions which Yamamoto presented on a more personal level, eventually drove Inukai to leave the party for greener pastures. Inukai's focus lay on securing a resurgence of Japanese international prestige and countering the sudden emergence of an active threat on Japan's northern border - coming in the form of the Soviet Republic following the Soviet conquest of Siberia. The sudden presence of what he viewed as a dangerous adversary, out to swallow Japan whole in its revolutionary crusade, had led Inukai to take an increasingly hard line with Nippon Kyosanto. This bitterly anti-communist stance had increasingly begun to verge on the hysterical by 1935 when Trotskyite Communists began to figure prominently in the Japanese communist movement - in Inukai's eyes serving as the perfect Trojan Horse for the Soviets. As such, the formation of the United Front between Minseito and Kyosanto represented a fundamental threat to Japan in Inukai's eyes and turned what had previously been a comparatively sedate game of politics between trusted parties into a fight for the soul and sovereignty of Japan - a struggle in which any and every measure could be justified. While Inukai was able to muster the support of considerable sections of the business elite to back his efforts, even challenging for the Mitsui Zaibatsu's financial support with Minseito, and secured the backing of a considerable portion of the upper classes, who viewed the Minseito-Kyosanto alliance as a betrayal of all they believed, it soon became clear that Inukai would be unable to muster sufficient support to contest the full force of the United Front. Forced to act out of desperation, Inukai Tsuyoshi finally grasped the outstretched hand of the Kokumin Domei, inviting them to join his party in a National Front to combat the Communist takeover of Japan in mid-December of 1935. The formation of the National and United Fronts brought the election campaign into its end-stages, in which both sides threw every resources into the bitter election campaign. Military veterans marched in parades sponsored by the National Front while ultra-nationalist clubs and organizations clashed in the streets with Kyosanto and Minseito political organizations. However, the most pivotal point in the election would center of the city Shizuoka in central Honshu, where an earthquake swiftly became a focal point for both campaigns, as the Minseito government was alternately scolded and praised for their response to the event. Finally, election day came on the 27th of January 1936. Proceeding in a largely orderly manner, although five districts would see voters clash - escalating to open fist fights and arrests - as they waited to place their votes. With that done, there was nothing to do other than wait for the results, which were finally tallied by the 30th. It was to prove an intense affair, with Seiyukai securing the largest proportion of the vote for itself, closely trailed by Minseito. However, the key result was to prove the returns for Nippon Kyosanto, who saw their support expanded by several magnitudes when they secured nearly 13% of the vote. With the combined Minseito and Kyosanto vote, the United Front had secured victory and Baron Reijiro Wakatsuki was set to ascend as Prime Minister (20).

    The ascension of the United Front to rule was a watershed moment in Japanese history which was to set in motion a series of significant events which would leave Japan forever changed. On the surface, the transition from the Premiership of Yamamoto to Baron Rejiro was to see surprisingly limited changes as the majority of Yamamoto's cabinet remained in place. The Kyosanto leadership would find itself outmaneuvered and outplayed in the negotiations which followed the election, only securing control of the Ministry of Railways and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry - comparatively minor portfolios lacking much in the way of agency when it came to promoting Kyosanto objectives. To man these posts, the Kyosanto leadership selected Nosaka Sanzo for the former and Yamakawa Hitoshi for the more prestigious latter appointment. However, these returns were met with considerable consternation on the part of many in the Kyosanto leadership and membership, with Kita Ikki most prominently harshly criticizing the decision to partner with Minseito - viewing the way in which governmental affairs had played out as a straight-up betrayal of Kyosanto by a bourgeoisie clique out to perpetuate their grip on power. Nevertheless, it was not to be from the left that trouble first emerged. While ex-Prime Minister Yamamoto was appointed to the position of Genro in honor of his incredible lifetime achievements, the sole other surviving Genro - Saionji Kinmochi, was to express his considerable reservations about the outcome of the 1936 elections, openly criticizing Prime Minister Reijiro's decision to allow Kyosanto a seat on his cabinet. While Yamamoto's appointment was to prove a considerable feather in Minseito's cap, it was to prove short-lived, as the elderly and sickly ex-Prime Minister succumbed to his ongoing illness in mid-February of 1936 at the age of 83 (21). As the right slowly came to terms with their electoral defeat, whispered plans began to emerge in the halls of the imperial palace and the top level of the Kokumin Domei on how to save the Empire from being undermined and overrun by the Communists and their Minseito lapdogs. In order to understand what followed, it is necessary to understand the way in which the military factions had developed during the Yamamoto administrations. Originally divided between Toseiha and Kodoha factions, of which the Kodoha could effectively be considered a part of the Kokumin Domei while the Toseiha maintained a scrupulous political independence - even as they themselves advocated for right-wing policies and the strengthening of army authority in Japan, these two factions had been joined by a third, hidden, faction called the Kokutai Genriha faction, meaning National Principle faction. Formed and led by a formidable student and devotee of Kita Ikki by the name of Nishida Mitsugi, this faction represented the communist undercurrent within the younger officer corps which included amongst its membership men such as Hashimoto Kingoro, Isobe Asaichi, Muranaka Takaji, Kunihara Yasuhide and Prince Takahito - some of the most talented, dedicated and charismatic of the lower-rank officer class. While the two other factions largely drew their younger members from the more prestigious and elitist Army War College, the Kokutai Genriha were made up mostly of lesser-priveleged officers who had ended their education at the secondary schooling Army Academy. Thus, when members of the Kodoha faction began participating in the development of plans for action against the newly elected government, it was not long before word began to seep out amongst the Kokutai - with whispers and rumors of planned military action slowly starting to make their way to Kita Ikki. Nevertheless, planning continued on the part of the Kodoha and Kokumin Domei who, in coordination with Emperor Genka himself, began to lay out plans for a violent coup d'etat against the United Front government under the direction of Araki Sadao's right-hand man General Masaki Jinzaburo. This plan aimed to remove the corrupt and westernized influences on government while allowing for a second imperial restoration, in which the Emperor was to take formal political power. As the plans neared their culmination it soon became clear that the conspirators would need to secure the support of the First IJA Division, the so-called Jade Division, which was stationed in Tokyo and responsible for its defenses. However, the problem lay in the fact that the commander of this division was General Hayashi Senjuro, a stalwart Toseiha supporter, who proved annoyingly resistant to General Masaki's pressures. Ultimately, it would require the Emperor's personal intervention, with General Hayashi and the Toseiha leader Major General Nagata Tetsuzan being called into the Imperial Palace for a secret audience, for the faction to fall in line with Imperial wishes. Finally, in late February of 1936, the plans were ready and preparations could come under way for the planned coup. However, it was at this time that Prince Takahito was drawn into the plans by his proud brother, where the outlines of the coup were laid out clearly for the Communist Prince. On returning to his home, Takahito would struggle mightily with how to react to everything he had learned, before finally slipping the information he had leanred to Nishida Mitsugi, who in turn passed it on to Kita Ikki two weeks before the planned coup was to come under way (22).

    The plans laid for the coup by an assortment of radical military and civilian leaders backed by the Emperor called for a number of important actions. Starting with a series of pre-planned "riots" designed to secure authorization for the deployment of military forces by the military district, the plan called for a number of assassinations targeting the most critical enemies of the coup makers by soldiers of the Kempetai military police and Army War College cadets, while troops of the 1st Division captured and secured control of an assortment of administrative buildings, including the Imperial Diet and the Imperial Palace, wherefrom the Emperor would proclaim the imposition of martial law, suspend the Diet and hand over the Prime Ministership to General Araki Sadao with a mandate to cleanse Japan of its rot, purifying it for its ascension to glory. At the same time, supporters of the Loyalists - as the coup-makers declared themselves, were to carry out arrests, detentions and assassinations of anyone who might oppose the plan in the Kwangtung Army - which was to then secure control of Chosun before shipping half of its men to the Home Isles to ensure wider compliance with the plotters' directives. Finally, early in the morning on the 9th of March the plans went into effect. Regimental Commander Cho Isamu, a hard-core Kodoha member and former founder of the short-lived Sakurakai secret society before it was taken over by the Kokutai, led soldiers of the 1st Infantry Regiment - who had only been informed of their duties hours earlier, in securing control the Ministry of War and the Police Headquarters before marching on towards the Kokyogaein gardens. There, they planned to use the Sakashita Gate to gain entry to the Imperial Palace, where the Imperial Guard were to open the gates to allow Cho and his men to secure the palace in order to protect the Imperial family from any efforts on the part of Kyosanto to murder the descendants of Yamato. At the same time Prime Minister Reijiro was attacked and shot by men of the 3rd Infantry Regiment alongside Hamagushi Osachi as they were making their way to a meeting in the Diet. The last remaining Genro, Saionji Kinmochi, was dragged from his home and gunned down by a squad of Kempeitai fighters while former Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet, current Privy Councillor and Grand Chamberlain Admiral Suzuki Kantaro was beheaded by a squad commander. All over the city, Minseito politicians found themselves targeted for death alongside moderate military figures and many of the navy commanders. In fact, Naval Cadets standing guard at the Imperial Japanese Navy General Staff were forced to fend off soldiers of the 2nd Infantry Regiment - killing some 130 men in total on either side, before the attackers were able to break into the building and began to execute staff present - including the Chief Admiral Kenji Kato and his second Vice-Admiral Naomi Taniguchi. However, it soon became clear that all was not proceeding according to plan. While the Minseito leadership had been targeted harshly for extermination, it could not compare to the sheer scale of resources set out to murder the Nippon Kyosanto leadership and organization. However, when assaults were made on the various residences, party headquarters and the like of Kyosanto, the attackers soon discovered they had walked into several ambushes. Soldiers were attacked from the back, the buildings they broke into exploded as booby traps were triggered, and soldiers in the ranks - up to and including participating officers - turned their guns on their commanding officers and murdered them. As Cho Isamu and his men marched through the Kokyogaein, they found themselves the target of a sudden and fierce attack from the woods by machinegun fire, which cut down several dozen soldiers before they could go to ground - beginning a running firefight within the Imperial Palace district. Most notably, the Imperial Army General Staff found itself suddenly upended by a series of explosions within the building which killed several prominent coup figures, most significantly the planner of the entire coup, Masaki Jinzaburo himself. Even within the Imperial Guard, collaborators with the coup leadership suddenly saw themselves betrayed by their compatriots, officers arrested by their men, while in a few cases companies ended up in open firefights with their brothers in arms. Total chaos reigned in Tokyo City, provoking considerable fear in the imperial family, while everyone sought to find their footing. A bizarre event would occur during the coup in which a core group of Kyosanto figures including Nosaka Sanzo and various other opponents of Kita Ikki, who had otherwise been evacuated, were suddenly discovered by a company of soldiers and executed out of hand. The Government counter-attack, however, soon followed as the 1st Infantry Regiment was gradually reduced over the course of two hours by their ambushers, commanded by Isobe Asaichi, who then proceeded on to reclaim the Police Headquarters from the occupying garrison emplaced by the 1st Infantry Regiment. It was at this point that the coup-makers began to realize that their gambit had failed and, fearing for the safety of the Emperor, they set out plans to mount a rescue of the Imperial Family before they could fall into the hands of the Communists. Commanded directly by the daring General Kuribayashi Tadamichi - not only a highly regarded up-and-coming Chief-of-Staff of the Imperial General Staff but also a gifted writer, poet and diplomat, a relief force was formed out of what troops were readily available at the General Staff at the time. Kuribayashi led his men towards the Hanzo Gate on the opposite side of the palace from Kokyogaein. Here, he and his men were faced with a short but intense firefight with Government-aligned Imperial Guards and Communist militiamen who had emerged to participate in the fighting. After fighting his way into the palace, Kuribayashi would succeed in reaching the Kyuden, where the Emperor and his wife resided. Already deeply worried at how events were playing out, Emperor Genka had armed himself to fight off any Communist who should try to get to him and his family, and as such greeted the arrival of Kuribayashi and his men with relief - handing over his wife for protection alongside the young daughter she had just recently given birth to, before joining the soldiers and his younger brother Nobuhito in evacuating the palace - the Loyalists finding Takahito's residence already empty. From there, the Emperor and his supporters would fight themselves out of Tokyo, eventually reaching Shinjuku Station wherefrom they were transported rapidly south, first to Yokohama - where the large Navy presence presented a significant threat to the Loyalists. Met with violent pursuit, the Loyalists would continue south to Kyoto, the Imperial Family taking up residence in the old imperial palace until order could be restored (23).

    The failure of the March Coup was to prove the first clash of the Japanese Civil War which was to rack the Empire of Japan in the mid-1930s. In the aftermath of the bloody fighting which engulfed Tokyo between the 9th, when the coup proper occurred, and 11th when the last remnants of Loyalist support had been driven from the city, the government and citizenry of the Japanese capital were left to pick up the pieces. Not only had the Prime Minister been murdered, but so had a dozen other prominent Minseito leaders, nearly half a hundred business leaders - many of them at the hands of unidentified assassins possibly unaffiliated with the coup-makers, several Admirals of the Navy and the last Genro. On a fundamental level, the heart of political Japan had been ripped from its breast. The first issue was establishing a continuity of leadership, which led to the hasty ascension of Kawasaki Takukichi, the former Minister of Education, as successor to Prime Minister Reijiro as a compromise candidate between Adachi Kenzo and Machida Chuji. Debate over how to deal with the Emperor's desertion from the capital further took up considerable debate, even as military figures were responding independently to the emerging conflict, with the decision ultimately made to appoint the twenty year old Prince Takahito, who had emerged from hiding with his wife shortly after the worst of the fighting came to an end, as regent for Emperor Genka until matters could be more clearly resolved. It was during this time that a series of key appointments occurred - the Navy and Army Ministries were united under Admiral Okada Keisuke as Minister of Military Affairs while Admiral Sakonji Seizo was named as Head of the Navy Imperial Staff and Yamamoto Isoroku was appointed Head of the Combined Fleet, in effect subordinating all military concerns to the control of the Navy, which emerged as the dominant power in the Government's military affairs. Notably, these appointments removed the close Kyosanto ally Navy Minister Takarabe Takeshi from his position in the Combined Fleet, leaving him officially without posting at this time of crisis. However, while these various administrative appointments held significance, the very fact that Nippon Kyosanto figures and their Kokutai affiliated were left out of these efforts helped to underline the fundamental disconnect between the de jure and de facto state of affairs in the Government camp. With the March Coup, Nippon Kyosanto rose to unheard prominence, establishing Red Guard regiments under Kokutai officers outside of official government ranks which swiftly swelled as communist sympathizers and members swarmed to join the fight for a Japan under Kyosanto influence. Commanded by Hashimoto Kingoro, who was appointed as Red Guard Commander by the Kyosanto leadership, it would be Kyosanto forces who took the leading effort in fighting against the Loyalists. Bloody clashes in Yokohama, where an attempted rising by Loyalist-aligned navy men under Admiral Takahashi Sankichi provoked open fighting between cadres of Navy cadets and even a brief exchange of fire between two Battleships, were quelled with incredible violence by Red Guard soldiers under the command of Nonaka Shiro - who had jumped from the rank of Captain to Brigadier in the space of a day, while Saitama and Chiba were secured without much of a struggle. In Takahashi's place as commander of the Yokohama Navy Base, Nonaka handed over leadership to Admiral Takarabe Takeshi - who now emerged as the staunchest supporter of Kyosanto amongst the leadership of the Navy. With the Imperial Diet in disarray, it was left to ad hoc formations of politicians, bureaucrats and military figures to form the basis of the Government response - a fact which led to absolute anarchy in the government response, allowing Nippon Kyosanto to secure effective control of not only the military ground forces leading the fighting, but also the police forces across the region. The Kempeitai and Tokutebtsu Koto Keisatsu, military and civilian secret police, headquarters were raided by Red Guard forces under the personal command of Nishida Mitsugi, who secured control of immense caches of information in the process - handing over much of this to Kita Ikki, who was to put it to great use in the future. While matters seemed to be settling by late March, around the time Emperor Genka set up residence in Kyoto, the sudden and unanticipated death of the just-appointed Prime Minister Kawasaki Takukichi on the 27th sent Government affairs once more into chaos and uncertainty. With Minseito in disarray, Adachi Kenzo and his affiliated in the Tojinha faction of the party decided to reach out to the Kyosanto leadership in hopes of leaning on their support to secure control of the situation. However, while Adachi was able to gain the backing of the Kyosanto leadership in return for near-ruinous promises which would have left Kyosanto in effective control of most government affairs, his great rival Machida Chuji was to successfully undercut Adachi by arranging an alliance with the navy leadership and surviving business elite to keep Kyosanto out of power. The result was the fracturing of Rikken Minseito and the ascension of Machida Chuji as Prime Minister with the backing of both the naval leadership and the surviving elements of Rikken Seiyukai, who had been horrified by the violent breach with the hard-won political norms by Kokumin Domei and Emperor Genka. The ascension of Prime Minister Machida broke the United Front apart and set in motion a key dynamic of the following Civil War - the constant and bitter infighting between Government factions (24).

    Footnotes:
    (19) To clarify, there are four major parties who will play a role in the coming elections: the Far-Right Kokumin Domei, the Center-Right Rikken Seiyukai, the Center-Left Rikken Minseito and the Far-Left Nippon Kyosanto. While there are partisan divides within the Seiyukai, the resignation of Yamamoto really brings the divisions within Minseito to the forefront. The two aforementioned factions are both OTL, but in contrast to OTL the lack of a Showa Financial Crisis means that the Tojinha faction, which IOTL lost much of its support as a result of the crisis, remains a powerful force within the party on equal standing with the Kanryoha - and as a result Adachi Kenzo remains within Minseito and does not depart for the Kokumin Domei as he did IOTL.

    (20) I hope everyone can keep track of the various parties, factions and politicians. I have tried to keep things balanced out. IOTL Inukai ended up getting swept up in the political storm engulfing Japan in the early 1930s as a Prime Minister who was saddled with resolving irreconcilable differences within the factions of his own cabinet which included everyone from far-right ultranationalists like Araki Sadao to the liberal Takahashi Korekiyo while dealing with a collapsing economy in the middle of the Great Depression. Ultimately, his decision to reduce military expenditures led to his assassination by naval cadets in the May 15 Incident. Here he is reluctant to work with the far-right, but ultimately ends up viewing them as the lesser of two evils when the Seiyukai ally with Kyosanto. Inukai is very much an establishment figure who, while ambitious, is a dedicated supporter of civilian rule who finds the far-right's integralist fever dreams distasteful and dangerous. However, with the Soviets expanding into the Far East (an event which sends shockwaves through Japanese society) and the massive expansion of Nippon Kyosanto under the impetus of having learned from the Trotskyite exiles, the threat presented by the communists seems much greater to Inukai. It is worth noting that the United Front alliance is formed on an alliance between the urban middle-class and a mixed worker-peasant base, with the elites who have traditionally supported Kanryoha largely shifting their support to Seiyukai. The result is that Seiyukai has by far the most money and resources to use in the following election campaign, but is unable to compete with the politically conscious middle class and their energized and engaged worker-peasant compatriots.

    (21) Kyosanto ends up getting played by Minseito, although all things taken into consideration this course of events is rather benign everything taken into consideration. Kyosanto enters government ranks for the first time, despite internal tensions over the matter and growing factionalism within the communist movement rearing its head once more. Finally, we see Prime Minister Yamamoto secure the greatest honor possible before passing away - truly the end of an era-defining politician for Japan.

    (22) I really hope that this all makes sense to people. Basically you have the two overt and public factions in the OTL Toseiha and Kodoha who, while not quite as bloodily hostile towards each other are nonetheless bitter rivals, and a hidden communist faction. Now Kokutai Genriha is actually an OTL organization set up by Nishida as Kita Ikki's path to influencing the military, however ITTL the divergences which leave Kita Ikki as a Communist mean that whereas IOTL the Kokutai and Kodoha organizations were largely in alignment, ITTL they are two very distinct factions. Finally we see Takahito betray the plans to Kita Ikki, setting the stage for a pre-emptive counter-reaction to the coup.

    (23) So shit goes sideways really quickly here. The plans are sort of a mash up of the various approaches laid out in the different incidents and attempted coups IOTL during the early 1930s, if on a much grander scale due to the involvement of much of the military leadership and the Emperor himself. The warning given by Takahito ends up playing an important role in how events unfold, as Kita Ikki and the Kyosanto leadership prove very selective in who is informed of the coming coup. One thing to note here is that Nosaka Sanzo was one of the harshest critics of Kita Ikki as well as one of the more moderate voices in leadership, with his death providing a significant shift in the party's leadership. It might not be totally clear from what is written here, but by the end of the 10th of March, Tokyo has largely fallen into the hands of the Government - with the Loyalists finally driven from the city's outskirts early the next day. The Japanese Civil War has begun.

    (24) With that we are finally under way. As should be obvious by this point, despite Kyosanto's key role in affairs they are being excluded from official leadership positions where possible and are in many cases viewed as an equal threat to the Loyalists by the government. This section might be confusing so I will try to lay the state of affairs out. The Government side of the Japanese Civil War has two major factions with various affiliated organizations and parties. On one hand there is the establishment under Prime Minister Machida who is backed by the majority of the Navy and control almost all official positions of power alongside around half of Rikken Minseito made up of the Kanryoha faction and the entirety of the Rikken Seiyukai - by this point they are already in talks on merging their political organizations into a National Unity Government. The other side is dominated by Nippon Kyosanto, who possess the majority of the Government's readily available military power in the form of Red Guard forces backed up with military cadets and younger officers from the Army Academy and a smaller section of the Navy led by Takarabe Takeshi - who is himself one of the most influential men in the Navy. They are backed by Nippon Kyosanto and the Tojinha faction of Minseito under Adachi Kenzo. Note that knowledge of Takahito betraying the Kokumin Domei plans to Kyosanto is not known outside of the inner circle of Ikki Kita's supporters in Kyosanto and the Kokutai, and that he is simply appointed regent - Emperor Genka remains officially as the ruler of the Empire.

    Summary:
    The British struggle to maintain their relationship with their Dominions while consolidating their Malayan domains into a single Union.
    After considerable factional infighting and strife, the Indian independence movement begins to consolidate, although seperatist elements grow in power and authority in the meanwhile.
    The Viet Quoc fight for their independence while in Thailand democratic reforms fall apart in the face of violent princely opposition.
    In Japan political elections lead to a failed coup setting in motion the Japanese Civil War.

    End Note:

    With that we have the opening shot of what should be a real drama for Christmas. I am so damn excited to see what all of you think!

    Figuring out how events in Japan should play out has been one of the major challenges of the TL, as I struggled to map out the various factions, who knows what and which figures fall into what groupings. That said, it is fantastic to see things start to come together. I know that there are a frankly disgusting amount of factions, groupings, parties and figures in this section, but I hope that my efforts to keep it clear are enough for people to keep track of what is going on.

    I really, really hope that everyone is going to enjoy the JCW arc which we will be following. This is probably the single biggest idea I came up with after starting up work on the TL after my hiatus and is hopefully going to be a high point. I have put an immense amount of work into figuring out how the conflict that follows will play out and I am really looking forward to seeing what everyone thinks of it. I really want to hear some speculation on how people think this will play out and thoughts on the course of events leading up to the JCW.

    I hope you all enjoyed, and I wish you all a Merry Christmas!

    (Celebrated in good Danish tradition on Christmas Eve, as opposed to the heathenry everyone else indulges in on Christmas Day. :p )
     
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    Update Thirty-Six (Pt. 1): Calamity Entailed
  • Calamity Entailed

    Japanese_naval_infantry_near_Sanyili%2C_Shanghai.jpg

    Red Guard Advance Through The Ruins Of Nagoya

    Japan In Twain​

    While the Tokyo stage of the March Coup ended in bloody failure for the Loyalists, the same could not be said for the conspiracy's Kwangtung and Chosun plans. While the redoubtable Governor-General of Chosun, Saito Makoto, had finally been replaced in 1932 by General Koiso Kuniaki, it had not meant any significant shift in alignment from Saito's moderate civilian-oriented administration. Further, Koiso worked in close coordination with the Commander of the Japanese Korean Army, the Chosun-gun, Muto Nobuyoshi in forming a bulwark of pro-establishment leadership in the Japanese Colonies. By contrast, the situation was far more divisive in Kwangtung, where the greatest military might of Japan was concentrated. Already marked by bitter factional infighting, the Kwangtung Garrison had only recently seen the re-appointment of the moderate General Hishikari Takashi as Commanding Officer, who became a target for the conspirators. However, while the plans of the Loyalists largely succeeded, with the assassination of Generals Hishikari Takashi and his second, Kawashima Yoshiyuki, they were unable to secure the appointment of the radical General Honjo Shigeru as Hishikari's successor. Instead it was to be the Chief-of-Staff of the Kwangtung Garrison, General Nagata Tetsuzan, a major leader of the Toseiha faction who had been driven from the General Staff by future-Loyalist Kodoha rivals, who took control of the powerful garrison force and took over leadership of the Loyalist forces on the mainland. A close ally of General Hayashi Senjuro, who played so central role in the March Coup, Nagata was an impressive leader with extensive experience in both command and staff roles who was to use his newly acquired power to rise to a position of immense importance within Loyalist ranks. Mustering up the Kwangtung Garrison while contacting his own supporters and fervent anti-communists in the ranks of the Chosun-gun, most significantly General Ueda Kenkichi who commanded the all-important 19th "Tiger" Division and was famous for his rabid anti-communist sentiment - having argued more than once for an invasion of the Soviet Republic to protect the Empire from Communist infiltration. Having determined that they would need to sweep away Generals Koiso and Muto, Nagata arranged permission for the transfer of most of the Kwangtung Army, as the garrison force was redubbed, through North-Eastern China, in the process establishing what would prove to be a long-lived alliance between Nagata's faction and the Fengtian Government, into Chosun. Entering in secret through border-crossings controlled by the 19th Division, the Kwangtung Army was already sweeping through Heijo on the road towards Keijo, wherefrom Chosun was administered, before news could reach the Chosun-gun leadership. Caught by complete surprise, General Muto sought to rush elements of the 20th Division to halt the rapid advance of the Kwangtung Army, but found them swept aside without much of a fight - several regiments outright switching sides when it became clear they were about to fight the elite Kwangtung forces. Within a week, the pre-Civil War administration of Chosun had been driven from the Chosun capital - fleeing southward towards Busan where it was hoped that reinforcements could be secured from the Home Islands. Nagata handed over the pursuit to Ueda while he set about turning Chosun into a staging ground for the reclamation of the Japanese Home Islands on behalf of the Emperor. As word began to arrive in Chosun of events in the Home Isles, particularly the fact that the Loyalists were finding themselves driven steadily into retreat, the decision was made to prepare for a crossing by the Kwangtung Army to reinforce the faltering Loyalists. During this time factional strife within the Loyalist camp went into high gear, as the Toseiha leadership in Chosun clashed with Kodoha and Kokumin figures who had ostensibly been meant to take up leadership of the region according to the coup-makers' plans. Most prominent of these figures was Count Terauchi Hisaichi, a formal member of the Kokumin Domei's military wing and one of the highest-ranked members of the Kodoha faction, who was dispatched from Kyoto by plane to officially take over as Governor-General of Chosun and as Area Commander of the region, which would effectively subordinate Nagata to his control. While Nagata did accept the appointment of Terauchi as Governor-General, he largely ignored him - refusing to inform the Governor-General of meetings of the Chosun General Staff, arranging orders and appointments without consulting Terauchi and effectively squeezing the Count out of even his own official duties, such that Terauchi seemed little more than a ceremonial figure before long. Nevertheless, Terauchi and his fellow Kodoha members did not take this lying down, with General Honju Shigeru securing appointment as Governor-General of Kwangtung - effectively giving him command of the leased territory and the remnants of the Garrison left behind by Nagata, and General Shirakawa Yoshinori as leader of the planned Home Islands Relief Force which soon began to absorb sections of the Kwangtung Army and Chosun Garrison from Nagata's forces in an open threat to the Toseiha control of the region (1). However, while this backbiting and infighting was consuming the preparations for a crossing from Chosun, the actions of the Government side of the civil war swiftly threw a major wrench into the Loyalists' plans. Given the breakdown of alignments between the Navy and Army in the early Civil War, the Government was able to secure control of the vast majority of the Japanese Empire's naval resources, which they were quick to put to use. Busan, a major port city, was rapidly fortified with naval guns emplaced and city blocks fortified while the remnants of the Government-aligned Chosun Garrison and Navy Ground Forces prepared to stand off against the coming assaults of the Kwangtung Army while a larger campaign of naval interdiction was set in motion by the Navy leadership which was to severely limit the ability of the Loyalists to transfer forces between Chosun and the Home Isles. In Sasebo and Kure similar fortification efforts were undertaken by the Navy, who were determined to protect their major dockyards and maintain control of the Inner Seas and the southern island of Kyushu which fell into Government hands with barely a fight. However, the failure to secure the Maizuru Naval Arsenal north of Kyoto, wherefrom Marshal-Admiral Prince Fushimi Hiroyasu was to lead the Loyalist Navy, was to prove a major challenge to the interdiction efforts and result in a key dynamic of the Civil War - the constant struggle by a weaker Loyalist Navy to break through the Government interdict of Chosun (2).

    Mobile warfare characterized the first months of the Civil War with the forces available to both sides relatively small, moving swiftly along rail-lines and roads, with clashes centering on various key cross-roads and railway points. In general, the Government was able to secure firm control of Northern Japan, stretching across Honshu from Tokyo to Kashiwazaki in Niigata Prefecture, encompassing the entirety of the more rural, less populated northern half of the island. By contrast, the Loyalists based themselves out of the densely populated central Honshu along an axis from Osaka, through Kyoto to Nagoya, while contesting for control of the western reaches of Honshu after having seen Kyushu swept out from under them without much in the way of a challenge. The focus of the fighting initially centered on the Shizouka Prefecture, with particularly intense fighting consuming the towns of Gotemba, Fuji and Fujinomiya in the shadow of Mount Fuji itself - an image which was to dominate Loyalist perceptions of the conflict, the Holy Mountain given over to the rapine of the Communist and their collaborators. However, there was little doubt from the get-go that the momentum of the fighting was in favor of the Government forces - largely Red Guard volunteer regiments swelling with daily reinforcements of northern peasants mobilized by Kita Ikki's call to arms. While fighting occurred in the Prefectures of Nagano and Yamanashi, the rough terrain of the region limited the scale of fighting, largely confining it to various raiding forces bolstered by locally recruited auxiliaries who swiftly turned against their neighbors in a classic display of collapsing state authority, which would leave the prefectures with deep wounds for decades to come. As the towns south of Mount Fuji fell to the Government, the Loyalists finally began to get their feet under themselves, relying primarily on the well-stocked Osaka Arsenal to provide themselves with a temporary benefit in tanks and artillery while conscripts were called up and garrison forces were mustered across central Honshu with all haste. Most significant of these initial forces was to be the 3rd and 4th Infantry Divisions based out of Nagoya and Osaka respectively, who were amongst the first soldiers called up by the Loyalists and came under the leadership of General-Prince Higashikuni Naruhiko, head of the Fushimi-no-miya cadet branch of the imperial dynasty and uncle-in-law to the deceased former Crown Prince Hirohito. Under General Higashikuni, these two divisions found themselves thrown into some of the fiercest fighting yet of the nascent Civil War at the Battle of Shizouka, in which they were able to form a defensive barrier along the banks of the Abe River, holding off repeated Red Guard assaults before Government-aligned Battleships arrived off the coast and initiated a prolonged and intense bombardment which forced the defenders into retreat. However, they were to get a final blow in with the sabotage of the Surugao and Shizouka bridges which delayed the Government advance by another day. A week later, General Tadamichi Kuribayashi - now a Genka favorite, would lead an aggressive counter-attack wielding the 6th Division outside Hamamatsu to turn the northern wing of the Red Guard vanguard, pinning them against the sea and securing the surrender of some 4,000 men on a promise of lenient treatment - a promise broken two days later when Emperor Genka ordered their mass execution (3). By late-April, the chaos had begun to settle itself and the conflict was taking on an ever larger scale. In the Sea of Japan, Government and Loyalist destroyers and torpedo boats clashed in a series of actions which allowed the Loyalists to abuse the comparatively short distance from the sites of these clashes to their ports in order to pick and choose their battles - the Government naval units having come out of Sasebo while the Loyalists could use Maizuru as their port of call. For a time, the Loyalists were able to break a hole in the nascent interdict - allowing for the shipping of several regiments of crack troops from the Relief Force being prepared out of Pohang in Chosun, although this cross-shipment route was to largely dry up by the end of May as more significant Government naval resources were put into securing the interdict. A final effort to break through the interdict on the 5th of June 1936 would result in the Battle of Dogojima between the two Battleships Fuso and Yamashiro, four heavy cruisers and an assortment of smaller naval units possessed by the Loyalists under Marshal-Admiral Prince Fushimi Hiroyasu, and a Special Fleet Detachment commanded by Admiral Inoue Shigeyoshi, a protégé of Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku and an ardent supporter of naval air power. As a result, Inoue's force consisted of the twin Battlecruisers Akagi and Amagi, the Battleship Nagato, the light carriers Hosho and Ryujo as well as an assortment of lesser naval units. The clash, which saw one of the first deployments of naval aircraft for battle in the world, saw the large compliments of naval aircraft and exceedingly well-trained air-crews of the Government fleet effectively allowed to take pot-shots at the Loyalist force without their prey having any way of fighting back for the first hours of the battle, before the two forces closed. As a result, aircraft from Hosho were able to sink one heavy cruiser and a couple destroyers while blowing a hole in the upper deck of the Yamashiro, ruining one of its turrets and causing significant casualties. Opposed by a small squadron of ground-based Loyalist fighters, the defending air forces would prove completely insufficient for the job. Thus, by the time the two forces closed, the battle was already swinging in Government favor. Beginning with a long-range torpedo attack by the screening forces on either side, the two sides saw a couple Government destroyers go down in exchange for another heavy cruiser crippled when a gap in the Loyalist screen allowed two torpedoes to hit the main fleet and another destroyer. With the Akagi and Amagi at its head, two Government Battlelines formed and set about bombarding the Fuso and Yamashiro, which struggled to make a fight of it. Several barrages hit home, with an unlucky hit high in the Amagi sending it listing while the already weakened Yamashiro was hammered to pieces even before the Nagato could catch up to the fight - whereupon it put into action its massive guns, smashing apart the Fuso's deck and top-structures, gravely wounding Marshal-Admiral Fushimi who was aboard the Fuso. Splintering apart under the preponderance of Government force, the remnants of the Loyalist Navy began a scattered retreat while the Government went about recovering following the battle, capturing the gravely damaged Fuso and Yamashiro, the latter of which would be judged unseaworthy and allowed to sink, while the Marshal-Admiral was taken into Government custody as a prisoner-of-war. While the damage to the Amagi had been limited, the list created by the blows it had received was to highlight the dangerously top-heavy construction of the Japanese ships when it began to capsize as the Loyalist fleet sailed for home in Sasebo, ultimately requiring significant rescue efforts to bring it back into port for repairs and reconstruction. While the Battle of Dogojima drew some attention from naval observers, the lack of clarity about what had actually happened - a result of heavy Loyalist censoring and Government reports so excessive in their praise of the Navy that they left even their supporters questioning the reliability of the reports - meant that few lessons were drawn from the affair internationally. The same could not be said for the Japanese Navy itself, which learned several important lessons from the encounter which were to significantly strengthen their naval capabilities and help their naval aviation ascend to world-class. While the initial injection of reinforcements helped swing the frontlines, which had shifted further in Government favor over the course of April, back from the approaches to Nagoya, the start of offensive Government actions using forces recruited out of Kyushu and the ever swelling and professionalizing Red Guard forces coming out of the north made clear that it was only a question of time before the war swung in the Government's favor on the Home Islands (4).

    The ascension of Machida Chuji ensured that the Government would be constantly divided, at war with itself. The exclusion of Nippon Kyosanto and their associated organizations and supporters in particular from official government positions was to prove a grave issue, as it spurred on parallel organizational developments elsewhere - whereby the Red Guard, and by association the entirety of the emergent Government Army forces, fell under the control of powers outside official government structures. While the Army Ministry and what little of the Imperial Army Staff had not fled with the Loyalists had officially been united with their Navy counterparts, with Admiral Okada Keisuke in particular meant to take the lead on the land-bound side of the conflict, in effect these bodies had been replaced by the Kyosanto and Kokutai dominated People's Council on Military Affairs - the Jinmin Gunjikaigi, an ad-hoc non-governmental organization set up to initially manage Red Guard deployments but which had swiftly come to function as an effective Military Staff directing the Government war effort. In an impressive display of political finesse, Nishida Mitsugi and Kita Ikki were able to recruit several high-ranking outstanding military commanders who had been sidelined in the military's constant factional strife in the pre-Civil War years. Most prominent of these was General Yamashita Tomoyuki who, as Commander of the 3rd Imperial Guard Division, brought with him some of the finest soldiers in the entire Japanese Army. Yamashita was joined by a trio of schoolmates from the 21st Class of the Imperial Japanese Army Academy in the form of Generals Ishiwara Kanji, Yasue Norihiro and Higushi Kiichiro and the air commander Lieutenant General Saburo Endo who, together with Hashimoto Kingoro and the aforementioned military figures, made up the military side of the council. They were joined by Kita Ikki, Fukumoto Kazou and Yamakawa Hitoshi as civilian representatives, making for a central council of ten. Unbeknownst to all but the members of council was the fact that Prince Takahito, increasingly assertive and dedicated to playing a role in the reshaping of Japan, served as an observer at almost every meeting of the body, rarely commenting but giving his tacit support for their revolutionary endeavors. With the Jinmin Gunjikaigi increasingly in control of the main war effort, the official government leadership were forced to work towards limiting and weakening this influence, resulting in the mass recruitment of men to serve putatively as Naval Ground Forces - a similar designation to that of Marines in some western navies, which in effect came to function as army units under Navy control. Recruited primarily through conscription, these marine units suffered from low morale and extremely mixed quality of command, leaving them to crumble when faced with the concentrated fury of the Loyalists on the front lines, but allowing them to function as decent garrison troops - which in turn granted the Navy claim to ever greater control of the land occupied by their NGF divisions. The political debates which engulfed the reestablished Imperial Diet was to prove a key feature of the critical months of May, June and July as the mainstream governments sought to suppress Kyosanto voices while at the same time seeking to develop a firm platform outlining what sort of state would emerge on the other side of the Civil War. All parties could come to a general agreement about the fact that Emperor Genka had proven himself completely and utterly unsuited to the role of Emperor in a liberal, constitutional and democratic Japan - as the Minseito and Seiyukai leadership imagined themselves heading up. There was some debate over whether to simply push for his deposal in favor of either of his younger brothers, but the vast majority of both Seiyukai and Minseito voices soon found themselves occupied by the idea of creating a true Japanese Republic in modern style, ditching the outdated and outmoded ruling style of the past. This idea was bitterly contested by the relatively few remaining conservatives in the Diet, as well as by the Kyosanto representatives who viewed this as simply an attempt to further monopolize power in the hands of establishment parties. It is worth noting at this point the significant economic dislocation which the Japanese Civil War brought with it, tearing apart the home islands in a display of violence not seen since the Sengoku Jidai, dwarfing even the Boshin War and the sundry military clashes during either the restoration or the Tokugawa Shogunate. It displaced men, women and children of all social classes and standings, although as always the rich were more often than not able to make it out more intact. Particularly the first few months of the conflict, in which the sea lanes were left open by the lack of naval interdiction, allowed for the emigration of many of the Japanese elite in the Chubu region, who more often than not uprooted themselves from the Home Islands and took sail for Chosun where they and their wealth were welcomed with open arms. During this time a limited but significant amount of industrial machinery was relocated from the home islands to Chosun, with particularly Nagoya seeing many of its factories shifted across the sea to Chosun with extraordinary haste, although Osaka, Nagahama, Kobe, Fukui and Kyoto were also impacted by this massive shift of industrial infrastructure and population movement - an occurrence given further impetus by near-constant labor unrest in Loyalist territories. Even Tokyo, which had seen its business class become the target of bloody assaults by the Loyalist coup-makers, saw a significant - if smaller - exodus of the rich and wealthy, fearful of what the presence of Kyosanto in government ranks meant for their continued prosperity. This fear became ever more understandable as Kyosanto propaganda became more widespread, with leaflets, speakers and recruiters turning the north of the country into a seething cauldron of pro-Kyosanto agitation and a key recruiting ground. However, by the end of July, as the interdict strengthened precipitously after the Battle of Dogojima, Loyalist reinforcements began to run low and the professionalization of the Government military forces reached a new high, this population shift gradually came to a close as avenues of escape disappeared one by one - the Loyalists finding themselves increasingly reliant on daring and dangerous aerial convoys to maintain contact with the mainland after their loss of the sea routes (5).

    The Battle of Dogojima, and the associated closing of Loyalist supply lines was to introduce an important foreign aspect to the conflict as the increasingly pressured Loyalists sought out foreign aid in hopes of reclaiming control of the seas long enough for them to bring the massive army being prepared in Chosun to the Home Islands. A particular focus of these diplomatic efforts were to center on the British, with Ambassador Robert Henry Clive emerging as a key figure in these negotiations. At the time, these diplomatic efforts were to largely flounder in the face of the open British interest in cooperating with the Japanese Government side of the Civil War, viewing them as far more compatible with British values due to their naval, liberal and democratic outlook. Negotiations ultimately stalled out as there was little the Loyalists could offer to attract British aid. By mid-June, with the Government's forces stalling out in the face of intense defensive efforts south of Nagoya, the search for a solution on the part of the Government took over debate and discussion in Government ranks. Some resources would be set aside for the western front, centering on Kyushu and Chugoku - effectively western Honshu, where massed Marine conscript forces led the effort in putting pressure on the Loyalist rear. This saw the Prefectures of Hiroshima and Shimane swiftly turning into a chaotic melee between two ill-prepared forces with the Loyalists reserving the vast majority of their forces for the clashes around Nagoya. However, the spread of rumors that the British were considering intervention in the conflict brought to a fore the bitter and long-lasting Siege of Busan in Chosun within the Government High Command. As the sole remaining redoubt of Government forces in Chosun, fighting under the command of Generals Muto Nobuyoshi and Koiso Kuniaki, the city and its surrounding area had become the destination for all Government supporters in Chosun, and the approaches to the city had been heavily fortified over successive rounds of fighting. The first few clashes had already occurred by mid-April, when the initial Loyalist advance under General Ueda Kenkichi had been fought to a halt south of Pohang-dong along a line from Masan to Miryang west of Busan proper. Relatively shortly after these initial successes, in early May, the Japanese Navy was able to provide assistance, landing several large naval guns and a massive amounts of resources to strengthen the hard-fought frontline. This allowed the Government forces to repel several subsequent assaults - turning back a second attack on Miryang by fortifying the small island of Sammun-Dong in a tributary of the Nakdong River and using the mountainous heights north of Busan itself for artillery spotting to break three individual thrusts from the west over the following month. However, as May turned to June and the interdict strengthened, the Loyalist leadership finally began to focus their resources on finally crushing this last thorn in their side. Massive amounts of artillery and manpower were amassed along the defensive perimeter as a slow and grueling campaign of bloody trench warfare came under way. Naval artillery barrages made up some of the disparity which resulted from the renewed Loyalist assault, but step by step the defenders were pushed back, with Taegu and Kyongju falling by the second week of June while successive attacks on Miryang and Sammun-Dong eventually saw the entire village and fort blasted off the face of the earth. Bloody Loyalist advances out of Masan eventually saw the front placed upon the western branch of the Naktong River, bare miles from Busan itself, while to the north the forested hillsides were turned into a bloody cauldron, with ground shifting ownership a dozen times over before the village of Pyongyong was overrun and the mountain of Geumjeong, from which Government artillery spotting was conducted, was exposed to attacks on its flanks, eventually forcing another Government withdrawal. With the situation ever more dire in Busan, and the Navy staff in search of a way of breaking the status quo on the Home Islands, the decision was made for an amphibious landing in Chosun to relieve pressure upon Busan. After considerable debate it was eventually determined that the landing would occur at the port town of Pohang, north-east of Busan and behind Loyalist lines. Planned by the staff under Admiral Sakonji Seizo and commanded by NGF Commander Seisuke Shimomoura, the Pohang Amphibious Campaign was to prove amongst the most ambitious interventions in ground combat conducted by the Navy during the Japanese Civil War. Starting on the 11th of July 1936 with a massive naval bombardment up and down the coast between Pohang and Busan, the following late evening would see naval landings around and within the town, which swiftly fell to the sudden assault. With a bridgehead secured, Commander Seisuke rushed to land his men even as the Loyalist defenders began to shift northward to meet this sudden new vector of conflict. Over the following days, the NGF forces were able to press down through the Pohang valley, recapturing Kyongju and forcing the Loyalist forces attacking Busan from the north to shift westward into hill country to prevent having their supply lines cut from the north, before General Nagata - reacting to reports of the Pohang Landing, began to shift forces to counter this new assault. By the 19th these troop transfers were well under way and the advancing NGF soldiers gradually found themselves fought to a halt, having failed to link up with the Busan defenders in their southward drive towards the Busan Perimeter. Commanded by Tashiro Kanichiro, the Loyalist reinforcements were to prove dogged and persistent even though they were manned by Korean conscripts, initially trained to hold the frontiers while the Home Islands Relief Force reclaimed the Home Isles, soon beginning to press back the relatively inexperienced NGF soldiers. Major actions south of Yongdok, on the northern approaches to Pohang itself, were to consume much of the NGF's efforts and eventually saw the bridgehead itself placed under incredible pressure. As it became clear that they were going to lose their bridgehead, evacuations began while southward thrusts aimed at linking up with the Busan Garrison were undertaken. With ever more Loyalist troops piling in from the north and west, the pressure grew unbearable and a bloody gauntlet gradually began to emerge south from Kyongju. Finally, the defenses around Pohang crumbled and the only avenue of escape became Busan, resulting in an increasingly panicked southward push, even as Loyalist artillery, now sighted from Geumjeongsan, blasted apart any efforts at organization. Hunted through the narrowing valley past Pyongyong, the losses turned catastrophic, finally seeing some 3,000 of the original 20,000 man NGF force limp to safety past the Busan defensive perimeter on the 3rd of August. With the Pohang Landing crushed, the Loyalists turned their full attentions back to the reduction of Busan, where morale was at an all time low and the decision was finally made to evacuate. The Siege now turned into a race against time as Japanese civilians were shipped out of the city and what resources could be moved out were. Troops were gradually pulled from the line as the front constricted, with the garrison forces shrinking from a high of 80,000 to barely 20,000 by mid-August. It was at this point that the situation began its final collapse as the Korean civilian populace, realizing that they were to be abandoned to the rapine of the Loyalists, began to riot hoping to spare themselves a sack when the Loyalists took the city. As anarchy descended, the Loyalists launched their final assault, overrunning the disorganized and threadbare defenders as the city collapsed into bloody chaos. The following capture of Busan was to prove a bloody horror as hysterical Korean civilians tore apart fleeing Government defenders, only to see the advancing Loyalists turn their guns against them in turn. It would take two days to restore order, during which time 18,000 of the 20,000 defenders died, the remnants either falling into Loyalist hands or fleeing aboard what ships remained in Busan's port, while a full 30,000 civilians were killed in the chaos (6).

    The Fall of Busan and the decisive shift in favor of the Loyalists in Chosun was to be mirrored by the equally decisive Battle of Nagoya on the Home Isles. Nagoya had seen the first clashes in its environs already in mid-April, but it would take until the middle of May before the Battle of Nagoya really came under way. Dominated by bloody-handed urban warfare equal to some of the fiercest fighting of the Great War, the stalemate which had developed over the course of June between the Yahagi and Sakai Rivers in southern Nagoya proved an endless gristmill for either side as they threw men at each other in endless assaults and retreats which often left companies cut off and butchered to the last man. A particular focus of the fighting would be the port of Takahama, situated at the mouth of the Sakai River, where the flat expanse soon turned into a deadly no-man's ground where machineguns regularly raked back and forth across the waters, wharfs and piers. Ultimately it would prove to be the decision of the Jimin Gunjikaigi to refocus Red Guard efforts in the mountainous Nagano Prefecture which allowed for the breaking of this stalemate. Fighting through the Kiso Mountains, the Government forces were eventually able to break though and capture Iida and Nakatsugawa, introducing a second front to the Battle of Nagoya on its eastern flank. Pincered between these two sides, General Hayashi Senjuro, who had taken personal command of the battle, found his men increasingly pressed into a bloody salient to the east of Nagoya proper from Seto and Nagakute to Toyota in the south. With pressure redoubled and reinforcements sluggish to arrive in response to continued advances in the west out of Kure and Hiroshima, the Loyalist positions finally began to crumble over the course of August, collapsing completely on the 22nd of August 1936 when the organized Loyalist withdrawal collapsed into a rout. The pursuit was rapid, and it was only through the dispatch of the last major reserves held by the Loyalists that the Government was brought to a halt south of Mount Ibuki, on the approach to Lake Biwa. With the situation in the Home Isles collapsing both in east and west, the Loyalists made the drastic decision to abandon their position - Emperor Genka and his family taking flight out of the recently constructed Itami Airport for Chosun, soon to be followed by much of the court and higher staff. Dinghies and what few submarines were available at Maizuru Naval Base were further used to ship out the imperial relics and what portable wealth could be moved from Kyoto and Osaka. Finally, on the 8th of September, the last Loyalist resistance on the Home Isles came to an end with the capture of Maizuru, Kyoto having fallen a week prior and Osaka two days before that (7).

    While victory in the Home Isles was met with widespread celebration in Government-controlled lands, the flight of much of the imperial family into exile along with many of the imperial treasures was to prove a decisive turning point in Japanese history. Rumblings in favor of establishing a republic had already been growing with astonishing pace amongst the Minseito and Seiyukai elite, with more limited backing from the Navy leadership - although the rank and file remained reluctant to abandon their ancient, storied and semi-divine ruling house in favor of what was widely seen as an attempted power-grab by westernized elites. As such, a motion was set forth by the Imperial Diet on the 2nd of October 1936 which would see the abolition of the Imperial Monarchy and the calling of a constitutional convention to establish the framework for a Presidential Republic to replace it. Now, while opposition to Emperor Genka had been widespread and the prestige of the Imperial House as a whole had been damaged significantly, the very idea of abandoning the monarchy broke against everything most of the population had been told throughout their lives. Public protests spread widely in response to the motion and agitation grew evermore widespread, with Nippon Kyosanto at its heart. The defining conflict within Nippon Kyosanto of the 1920s had been over the issue of the monarchy and under the guidance of Yamakawa Hitoshi and Kita Ikki the Communist movement had remained fervently monarchist even as they went to war with the Loyalists. The prospect of abandoning what Kita referred to as the Kokutai - the system of government and sovereignty which embodied the Japanese Spirit and the basis upon which Japan was to be reformed - in favor of a structure based upon Western principles deeply offended many in the Kyosanto leadership and swiftly saw them turn wholly against the government. Rallying support from the public in opposition to the motion and presenting Takahito as the rightful replacement to Emperor Genka, Kyosanto was able to secure support from a surprisingly diverse coalition all united in support of the Imperial Monarchy. As tensions grew and the prospect of open conflict over the issue seemed on the verge of breaking out, a series of events began to play out which were to overturn the situation entirely. Kita Ikki, utterly disgusted with Kyosanto's putative allies on the right, had set in motion a series of plans which were to ultimately result in a coup attempt. Having already developed close ties with Admiral Takarabe Takeshi, who commanded naval forces in Yokohama, Kita had initiated contact with Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku who expressed his willingness to back the forceful protection of the monarchy, even at the cost of overturning what he viewed as an out-of-control Diet. With the support of these two prominent figures in the Navy, and with control of the Red Guard forces which had spent the past month returning to their homes in northern Japan, it did not take long before Kita was able to muster up sufficient forces to overturn the situation. Handing the matter over to Red Guard Commander Hashimoto Kingoro, the plan which emerged was in many ways a simpler version of that prepared for the March Coup. With the ongoing public unrest, which Kita Ikki and Kyosanto would further enflame, Hashimoto would force the government to proclaim martial law which would in turn allow for the dispatch of NGF and Red Guard forces directed by Hashimoto and Takarabe, who would then overthrow the government and form a new cabinet to reform government according to Communist principles while enthroning Prince Takahito as Emperor to direct these affairs. The first phase of the plan, which saw massive riots break out across much of central Tokyo in protest at the Republican Motion starting on the 16th of October, went off without any problem and eventually forced Prime Minister Machida to issue martial law three days later. However, knowing that Kyosanto was at least partially behind the chaos, he forbid the use of Red Guard forces to quell the unrest, instead handing the matter over entirely to the trusted Navy. As a result a lot more NGF soldiers swarmed into the city than originally planned on the 20th, around a third of them outside the command of either Takarabe or Yamamoto, with the result that when the coup makers set in motion their plan, they swiftly found themselves forced into an open firefight with opposing NGF forces - who were caught by surprise at this sudden betrayal. Red Guards, who had been mustered outside the city and in poorer districts of the city, streamed into the city to join the fighting as well, soon overwhelming the grossly outnumbered government NGFs. However, the fighting which resulted not only saw a large section of downtown Tokyo turned into a war zone, it left plenty of prominent politicians dead or on the run. Prime Minister Machida himself would be taken into custody and eventually shot as a traitor to the revolution, but Inukai Tsuyoshi was able to make his escape alongside a group of 15 prominent Seiyukai politicians, eventually making their way to Chosun where they were welcomed with hesitance. A bloody purge began against many of the most prominent anti-Kyosanto politicians and Navy figures, with hundreds spirited away for execution when they weren't simply murdered outright by their attackers. A week of Red Terror engulfed the entirety of Tokyo as Tokkeitai - Navy Secret Police, commanded by Commander Daigo Tadashige, and Red Guards set about purging Japan of Loyalist and anti-Kyosanto Government figures - the effort soon expanding to cover the rest of the country. Many were imprisoned and tortured, some executed, and many more deprived of their wealth as mass proscriptions were undertaken. In the meanwhile the Jimin Gunjikaigi, with added membership from primarily the Navy, Adachi Kenzo and a handful of others, took up effective leadership of Japan until a more permanent structure could be organized (8).

    Footnotes:
    (1) The Loyalists succeed in taking control of almost the entirety of Japan's mainland possessions, but do so under the leadership of Toseiha commanders, most prominently Nagata Tetsuzan. IOTL Nagata was eventually assassinated in the Aizawa Incident by a Kodoha supporter, but prior to that he was one of the foremost Toseiha leaders. Ueda Kenichi was known IOTL as one of the foremost supporters of the Northern Strategy, calling for the military focus to be upon war with the Soviet Union - and was a well-known fanatic anti-communist, which makes him a pretty natural figure to jump ship for the Loyalists when it becomes clear the Government is cooperating with the Communists. Notably, he was part of the Toseiha faction, not the Kodoha faction. I should probably note here that while the entirety of the Kodoha Faction ITTL (which includes most of their OTL members) are in the Loyalist camp the Toseiha faction is more split around 70/30 in favor of the Loyalists with the Kokutai completely behind the Government. What I am trying to portray with this constant barrage of names, factions and inter-personal conflicts is that the Military, which IOTL was noted for its factional divides, are bitterly divided with numerous cliques, factions and societies which intersect between each other, and this fact is a major hinderance for both sides of the conflict. Heijo and Keijo are Pyongyang and Seoul respectively by their names at the time.

    (2) The Navy is able to secure some areas quite well, turning their naval arsenals into massive fortresses, but their failure to ensure control of the Maizuru Naval Arsenal proves one of the great failures of the Navy. With Maizuru under control, the Loyalists are able to exert quite a bit of pressure on Government interdiction efforts out of Kure and Sasebo (near Nagasaki on Kyushu). However, it is worth noting that it is between 80-90% of the Navy which is backing the Government, leaving significant disparities in what resources are available to the Loyalists.

    (3) It is worth noting that while both sides are strengthening significantly as time goes on, the Loyalists are faced with constant social unrest in the cities under their control. Kyosanto drew a lot of its urban support from the industrial cities of Chubu and with the region becoming a stronghold for the Loyalists, these supporters turn to sabotage, work stoppages and strikes to make themselves felt. Nevertheless, the Loyalists have the benefit of being able to draw on a lot more of the professional army, calling up divisions and regiments from across central and southern Honshu, but struggle to recruit reinforcements for those men. By contrast, the Red Guard - who form the vast majority of the Government's forces, are constantly strengthening as more volunteers stream to the banner but have a significant lack of upper-level military leadership experience and professionalization. At the moment the fighting is dominated by the Government throwing their weight of numbers at the Loyalists and chipping away at their numbers, overrunning them by a quantitative difference in manpower while paying for it dearly in blood.

    (4) Naval affairs are not something I am well versed in, so I hope this makes sense to people. Effectively, the Battle of Dogojima consists of the Government naval forces exploiting their advantage in naval aviation to weaken the Loyalist navy before they close for a proper big gun clash. Oh, the Akagi and Amagi were not refitted as carriers as IOTL, but remained under construction as Battlecruisers due to the lack of a Washington Treaty ITTL. As a result the Amagi was not totaled in the Kanto Earthquake - having already finished construction, allowing it to remain a valid vessel and ensuring the survival of the twin ship duo. All of this naval skirmishing and the actual clash prove invaluable to the Japanese Navy, allowing them to acquire a superior level of experience with post-Great War naval technology to anything possessed by the world's navies. Granted, a single battle isn't going to be world-changing, but it does allow them to smooth out a lot of the kinks in the process and to develop a moderate level of veterancy.

    (5) This section is meant to help highlight the fact that despite their every effort, the Naval leadership and Machida's faction are unable to keep Kyosanto and their backers down. The government is debating how to deal with the fact that their emperor wants to kill them all, and while popular support for the Imperial House remains strong, amongst the political and business elite support is far lower, with many advocating for a republic. The fact that Takahito is sitting in on meetings of the Jimin Gujikaigi, which has basically come to serve as the executive body of the land-bound war effort, is an important development which helps to signify that he is completely in the Kyosanto/Kokutai camp by this point in time and is being treated as a major figure within the party - although public knowledge of this fact remains non-existent, it is in fact the greatest secret of Nippon Kyosanto. It is also worth noting that while the vast majority of the army figures on the side of the Government are relatively low-ranking, they have been able to recruit a few major figures who had been sidelined in the political infighting of the Toseiha and Kodoha factions - in fact, Ishiwara is a former leading member of the Toseiha faction while Yamashita is an ex-Kodoha factional leader. Ishiwara was sidelined by Nagata and Tojo while Yamashita was placed on administrative leave after losing a factional struggle with Araki Sadao. Notably, both of these prominent military figures were amongst those most open to Kita's message in the first place, and as such find refuge with the Kokutai after the coup plays out.

    (6) The Siege of Busan, along with the ongoing Battle of Nagoya, are decisive battles which determine the course of the war. The failure of the Pohang Landing and subsequent collapse at Busan result in a massive blow to the Navy's prestige and mean that Chosun is lost to the Government for the time being. It is worth noting that both Koiso Kuniaki and Muto Nobuyoshi are amongst those evacuated before the Fall of Busan. The Loyalists are not really acknowledged by most international parties as the legitimate government - the Fengtian Government have accepted an ambassador, but beyond that they are largely without international backing.

    Here is a map to illustrate where the various places are in the Siege of Busan. I am using the Battle of Pusan Perimeter to get an idea of the area being contested.

    Pusan_Perimeter.jpg

    (7) With that the Government emerges victorious in the Home Isles, bringing to a close the relatively short but horrifically bloody ground war. Most of the Loyalist leadership end up making their escape, but they arrive in Chosun with a lot of egg on their faces. The loss of the Home Isles is an immense blow to Loyalist morale and severely discredits the Kodoha faction which has largely held dominance of military affairs in the Home Isles for the duration of the Civil War. Additionally, victory on the Home Isles means that everything that has been set aside in the name of expedience by the Government suddenly comes roaring back into focus requiring decisive action by a state fundamentally divided between the Minseito-Seiyukai alliance and Kyosanto.

    (8) And there we have it! A New Day Dawns Upon Red Japan! :D There is still a ton to work out, but with the October Coup - later to be known as the October Revolution, Nippon Kyosanto and their associated organizations and powers rise to rule the Home Isles (at least so long as they can quash Government faction resistance). While there is resistance to these initiatives, by this point Kyosanto controls the vast majority of Government ground forces while with the addition of Admirals Takarabe Takeshi and Yamamoto Isoroku they are able to secure effective control of most of Navy resources, particularly those readily available near Tokyo itself. The bloody purge which follows is pretty standard fare, not unlike what we saw in other revolutionary contexts, but it proves relatively short-lived in its first iteration. The actual structure of how the coup plays out is based mostly on Hashimoto's plans for the March Incident of OTL - it seemed like the plan would fit the situation best, whereas the March Coup ITTL is based more on the February 26 Incident.

    End Note:

    We will be closing out the JCW chapter on Sunday, but I felt that this would be a good point to leave off for now. I cannot stress how much work went into getting everything in order for this series of events, from figuring out the complex factional politics, to the course of the war and the involvement of foreign powers (more on that on Sunday) and everything else. I hope this lives up to people's expectations and that it is as exciting to read as it was to work on. I spent weeks on this section, researching every little development in detail to work out how this conflict would play out. I am really looking forward to introducing Red Japan to you all, it was a lot of fun to explore and work on - and I think that my version is going to be rather unique.

    And with that, I wish you all a Happy New Year! (May it be better than the shitshow that was 2020.)
     
    Update Thirty-Six (Pt. 2): Calamity Entailed
  • Calamity Entailed

    1087px-GF_in_Indian_Ocean%2C_1942.jpg

    Imperial People's Navy of Japan

    The Churning Tides​

    The October Revolution marked the rise of Prince Takahito to political prominence and the complete reshuffling of state affairs in the formerly Government-ruled Japan. An avowed, if secret, Communist, Prince Takahito had played a key role in the legitimization of the Kokutai Genriha and its spread throughout the Army Academy in the years he studied at the institution, swiftly proving himself a talented ideologue with a compassionate heart and an uncommon dedication to ensuring the betterment of Japan. He was well known for his conscientious personality, scholarly personality - always seeking to learn and understand the world around him, humaneness - having been deeply marked by stories of inequality and inequity presented by his fellow cadets of commoner standing, and his whole-hearted dedication to the betterment of the Japanese people. Having agonized greatly over betraying his brother's dangerous plans for a coup, Takahito's subsequent appointment as Regent in Emperor Genka's name had been viewed by the young prince as an unjust reward for the betrayal of his family. Nevertheless, he and the rest of the imperial house under Government control had largely been marginalized by the Machida's government push for the establishment of a Republic. Nevertheless, Takahito and his wife Princess Tokugawa Kikuko spent the months between the March Coup and October Revolution touring the warfront, caring for the wounded and displaced, swiftly engendering a considerable degree of popularity with the common man - wherefrom he would emerge with the nickname of "The People's Prince". While a propaganda effort pursued by the Kyosanto leadership in their hopes of placing the young man on the throne some time in the future, there was no way of dismissing Takahito's great care for the people of Japan, his constant insistence on the humane treatment of prisoners and insistence upon the care that had to be taken of the common man when military affairs were discussed. Having sat in on meetings of the Jimin Gunjikaigi, Takahito was amongst the most knowledgeable figures about the course of the war despite Machida's efforts to limit any spread of information to the Imperial Family, which he viewed as politically unreliable - a not unreasonable view considering that both Takahito's political affiliations and role in betraying the March Coup were not known to the Prime Minister. As such, with the overthrow of the Machida Administration and resultant purge which saw the Imperial Diet largely dispersed, Takahito remained as the sole legitimate source of authority in Government Japan and in a position to fundamentally reshape the consensus established with the Meiji Constitution. With the advice of Kita Ikki and Yamakawa Hitoshi, Takahito eventually settled on the temporary elevation of the Jimin Gunjikaigi while a more permanent solution was determined. The result of these deliberations, taking place over the course of some ten days in late October and early November, was the establishment of what Takahito called the People's Shogunate, the Jimin Bakufu, which was to replace the Jimin Gunjikaigi and serve as both the civilian and military government of Japan under his rule. While borrowing heavily from the militarist rhetoric of Trotskyite Communism, mixed with the uniquely Japanese institution of the Shogunate - whereby the state was administered by military force, and combining it with Kita Ikki's ideological structures focused on Pan-Asianism, Socialism and intense Japanese Nationalism - the resultant reforms saw the formation of a dictatorial council which was to rule and govern Japan. Officially headed by Takahito as stand-in for the Emperor, the People's Shogunate was unique to Shogunates in Japanese history in that it lacked a single leading figure, instead relying upon a conciliar model surprisingly similar to the Central Committee of the Soviet Republic of Russia. Structured in consecutive layers, the Grand Council of the Shogunate - translated as Shogun Dai Hyogikai, was formed by the Emperor, or in this case Regent, and eight Shogun, two each representing the Military and Navy with the last four Civilian. The first of these Shogun would prove to be Kita Ikki, Fukumoto Kazou, Yamakawa Hitoshi and Adachi Kenzo representing the Civilian seats, Nishida Mitsugi and Yamashita Tomoyuki for the Military seats and Yamamoto Isoroku and Takarabe Takeshi for the Navy seats. Below the Shogun Council were three councils: the Army Council - Rikugun Hyogikai, the Navy Council - Kaigun Hyogikai and the People's Councils - the Jimin Gikai which was in turn split into two subsidiary councils - the Rodosha Hyogikai and Nimin Hyogikai, meaning the Workers' and Peasants' Councils respectively. These three bodies were elected to serve as counter-balance to their respective Shoguns and were partly selected and partly elected. Nippon Kyosanto was to select a third each of the members for the two People's Councils, with Adachi Kenzo's Minseito selecting one sixth of the seats in the Workers' Council while the remaining seats in each council were put up for election from rural and urban electorates respectively for a total of 320 seats split equally between the two councils. The Army Council was split with half its seats elected from the general soldiery of the Red Guard, soon to be renamed as the Imperial People's Army, while the latter half was split between seats granted on the basis of command and appointment by the Military Shoguns - with a similar division for the Navy Council. These four councils were to elect the Shoguns to five-year terms of office and aid in the legislation of their individual spheres. A fifth, and final, council called the Bugyo Hyogikai - translating as Magistrates' Council, served as representative of what soon proved an extensive government bureaucracy answering directly to the Shogun Council and the organizational structure along which governmental appointments would flow - with Bugyo taking the place of ministries and governmental institutions in the People's Shogunate. With these structures now in place, the focus now turned to the legitimization of their cause, resulting in the officious deposal of Emperor Genka and ascension of Prince Takahito as Emperor - who would take up the Era Name of Koji 広至, translating roughly as Great Arrival, signaling the ambitious sentiment of the new Emperor and his advisors for the next chapter of Japanese history, although it would be as "The People's Emperor" that he would be fondly remembered by the peoples of Japan (9).

    While the October Revolution was incredibly successful, securing control over the majority of the Home Isles without much challenge and sweeping enemies of the revolution away through the sheer speed and totality of the initial crackdown, there were areas which failed to fall at first. From the start of the Civil war, the clear focus of Nippon Kyosanto and the Jimin Gunjikaigi had been on the northern and central sections of the Home Isles while the south and west had largely been left in the hands of the Navy. While the revolutionaries had been able to secure the aid of important segments of the Navy, they failed to secure the support of Minister Okada Keisuke or Admiral Sakonji Seizo - the former being executed as a traitor to the revolution and the latter imprisoned and questioned harshly after being removed from his post as head of the Navy General Staff, and with them a significant portion of the more conservative Navy leadership was removed from power. The most important of these conservatives to not be swept up initially would prove to be Admiral Nagumo Chuichi, Commander-in-Chief of the Western Front based out of Kyushu, commanding the vast Naval Ground Forces which had been used to challenge Loyalist control of the southern and western reaches of the Home Isles. Notably, he controlled the large naval force based out of Kure which was meant to maintain peace and order in the Inner Sea of Japan. Notably, the capture of the Maizuru Naval Base as the Loyalists fled the isles would prove important to the disposition of forces to the resultant clash, as the majority of the interdicting forces were shifted from the naval base in Sasebo, of which Nagumo held command, to Maizuru under Yamamoto Isoroku's protégé Inoue Shigeyoshi. When word reached Nagumo of the Communist Coup in Tokyo he was swift to publicly denounce the revolutionaries and declared that he would fight to restore the legitimate government to power, rallying the gradually demobilizing NGF soldiery of the south to the cause while preparing for an open clash over control of the Inner Sea. Ultimately this effort was to prove insufficient to the needs of the Government forces, as the newly redubbed Imperial People's Army swept southward out of Central Honshu, crushing all opposition before them. It is notable that this advance included the heavy use of armored vehicles and tanks, many of which had been secured when Osaka fell into the hands of the Revolutionaries - the city having served as key production center for such vehicles both during and prior to the Civil War. Unable to stand against this armored advance given that their own arms were a mishmash of old guns dug out of various arsenals in the south, the NGF gave ground with astonishing speed, rapidly falling back towards Hiroshima where the fortifications built around Kure earlier in the war were hoped to safeguard the Government. It was at this point that the Imperial People's Navy entered the field, sailing into the Inner Sea to contest control of the area. Nagumo was an old-school naval thinker specializing in Battleships and Torpedo-warfare and as such was unprepared for the radical use of naval aviation by the revolutionary fleet commanded by Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku personally and the air fleet under the command of the astonishingly talented but youthful Genda Minoru. Sweeping forward in waves, the naval carrier fighter contingent once again made itself known by gravely wounding what few major ships were available to Nagumo in the Inner Sea before driving the smaller ships, cruisers, destroyers and torpedo boats, which constituted the majority of the Inner Sea Fleet into port at Kure. Landings in Kyushu and Shikoku by IPAJ forces soon swept the poorly trained garrison Naval Ground Forces before them. The Siege of Kure, which lasted through to the middle of December - two months in all, finally came to an end when supplies ran out and news of Kyushu and Shikoku's fall reached Nagumo. Demoralized and now certain of his failure to rescue the Government cause, Nagumo blew his own brains out after ordering his subordinates to surrender, bringing to an end active resistance to the new revolutionary regime in the Home Isles (10). The October Revolution was also to drastically change the calculus of various international actors. With the ascension of a Communist state in Japan, the entire Pacific suddenly seemed under threat from the world revolution, be it the American West Coast, the British Colonies and Dominions, French Indochina or any of a dozen other powers now placed under pressure. The recognition of the new People's Shogunate by the Soviet Republic, the Mexican Republic, the Central American Workers' and Farmers' Republic and the Socialist Republic of Chile in short succession were to further highlight the threat posed by the international Communist and Socialist movements active across the Pacific Seaboard. The first to act were the British, who shifted from their recognition of the Government to support of the Loyalists, viewing them as the rightful successors to government once Inukai Tsuyoshi joined them in Chosun. This was soon followed by similar declarations from Ambassadors Joseph Grew and Fernand Pila of the United States and France respectively. However, the attitudes of these two latter governments were far from as fervent as the British, who rapidly took a leading role in mustering up anti-Communist support. With France mired in the bloody Indochinese Revolt and America still struggling to pull itself out of its Isolationism, these two secondary powers would do little other than pledge their political and diplomatic support to a British response. Thus, it would prove to be the British, long allied with the Japanese, who took the lead in responding to the emergence of a Communist power capable of challenging its Pacific dominions. After some deliberation, largely excluding the Labour-affiliated Australian Government, it was decided that the British Empire would have to lend its aid in restoring order to the Far East or risk allowing Communism to run rampant across the Pacific and East Asia - wherefrom it could easily seep into India with potentially disastrous consequences for the Empire. As such it was not long before Ambassador Robert Henry Clive declared the British Empire's support for the Loyalist cause, formally entering the Japanese Civil War on the 26th of November 1936 (11).

    Since the start of the Civil War Chosun had experienced a constant, and ever swelling, wave of refugees from the Japanese Home Isles. Some came out of political conviction or affiliation, more came to save fortunes, but most departed the Home Isles to get away from the bloody unceasing warfare and bloodshed which had left them homeless and penniless. During the first three months of the Civil War, more than half a million Japanese would cross the Straits of Tsushima for Chosun, followed in dribs and drabs by another quarter million in the months prior to the October Revolution - which set in motion the final wave of refugees, numbering another half million or more in total - resulting in a population of nearly three million Japanese in Chosun in total by the end of 1936 not including the soldiers of the Kwangtung and Korean Armies, as contrasted with more than twenty-two million Koreans. The arrival of Emperor Genka and the Loyalist Leadership from the Home Isles was to further result in a series of complicated intrigues which saw General Nagata and the Toseiha Faction emerge in a superior position to that of the failed Kodoha Faction. Having been an avid advocate of securing foreign involvement in the conflict, Nagata was able to convince Emperor Genka to hand over leadership of the war effort to him, resulting in a fundamental shift in power within Loyalist ranks as Nagata assumed a near-dictatorial position in Chosun. With British entry into the war, it swiftly became a matter of determining how this support might make the greatest impact upon the war effort in Loyalist Favor. It is worth noting that a series of important changes in command occurred during this time as the Home Islands Relief Force, commanded by General Shirakawa Yoshinori and containing the bulk of Loyalist forces, saw a major reorganization in which the forces available to it were reduced to barely a tenth of its original size, the remainder being reintegrated into the Chosun-Gun under Nagata's direct command and the post of Governor-General of Chosun finding itself abolished in favor of an ostensibly civilian government under rule of Prime Minister Hiranuma Kiichiro - the longtim Kokumin Domei civilian leader of the more moderate wing of the party, who found common cause with the powerful Nagata. Through this reorganization, Nagata was able to weaken or remove the two most prominent Kodoha appointees in Chosun, sidelining the radical wing of Kokumin Domei which included men like Araki Sadao and Okawa Shumei while shifting the Loyalist government away from its xenophobic stance. What allowed for Nagata's rise to power was Emperor Genka's temporary incapacitation on realizing his failure to secure victory and the sheer scale of his beloved brother Takahito's betrayal. Since the start of the Civil War, Yasuhito had been certain that Takahito was being forced to oppose him by the treacherous Government forces - a belief strengthened by reports of Takahito's lack of influence on government affairs and seeming unwillingness to speak out publicly against the Loyalists. The sudden news that Takahito was not only a leading proponent of the October Revolution, but also a key figure on the Jimin Gujikaigi and a card-carrying member of Nippon Kyosanto came as an absolute body blow to the Emperor who had viewed his youngest sibling as his closest confidante and favorite brother. He suffered a mental collapse, secluding himself in the Gyeongbokgung Palace in Keijo opposite the Japanese General Government Building from which Nagata was to rule while refusing to meet with anyone. As Nagata strengthened his grip on power, Araki Sadao eventually broke this order of seclusion and tried to enter the palace, only to find himself forcibly ejected by the enraged Emperor. It would not be until the start of 1937 that Emperor Genka emerged from his seclusion a changed man. Untrusting and with a harshness now sharpened to an edge, Genka abandoned any and every principal in the name of securing his restoration, even setting aside his wish for greater direct imperial power in favor of supporting General Nagata's plans for the time being - going so far as to acquiesce to leaning on foreign support to restore him to power, a sharp break from the rabid xenophobia he had preached in the pre-Civil War days. Deliberations over the shape of British intervention soon saw ground forces excluded from consideration, with naval support soon coming to dominate considerations - although whether to transfer elements of the Home Fleet to reinforce the pre-existing Dominion Fleet based out of Singapore or to just proceed with the naval resources available in Singapore remained a topic of considerable debate within the British Admiralty. Ultimately, the slow pace of decision-making on the part of the British was to allow the Revolutionary Government based in Tokyo to take the initiative. Led by a series of young and ambitious naval commanders suddenly risen to top positions as a result of the considerable turnover of officers at the top of the Navy, the Imperial People's Navy set about an extensive island hopping campaign aimed at securing control of as much of the Japanese colonial empire as possible. The vast majority of these efforts were to prove peaceful, as small naval forces set about ensuring the continuity of administration in the Pacific domains, although a series of brief clashes on Saipan would mar the otherwise peaceful takeover. The Ryuku Isles would see limited fighting as a few rabid anti-Communist officers in the islands sought to contest naval landings without much success, while the campaign to secure Taiwan saw the civilian Minseito-aligned Governor-General who had declared his support for the Government initially ousted in favor of one of Adachi Kenzo's supporters and a significant strengthening of naval power over the island. Ultimately, the most contested conquest would prove to be the island of Jeju, off the southern coast of Chosun. Here landings by the IPNJ were bloodily contested by Loyalist garrison troops who, despite being cut off from reinforcements and support from Chosun proper, fought to nearly the last man in a greatly remarked upon last stand. Particularly the reclamation of Taiwan was to have a profound impact upon the considerations of the British Admiralty, convincing them that they would not be able to wait much longer before acting or they might well find the entire East China Sea cut off to them. As a result, the Dominion Fleet in Singapore was ordered to set sail for Japanese waters on the 28th of December 1936 (12).

    Built in response to decisions taken at the Imperial Council of 1920, the Dominion Fleet was a relatively recent construction which drew heavily on the Australian and New Zealand Dominions as well as the Indian Raj to pay for and man the navy, only a third of the force stemming from the British Isles, and ostensibly set to be under the command of dominion-born naval officers. In fact, it was these concessions to the dominions which had seen the Anglo-Japanese Alliance renewed after the end of the Great War in response to fears in the British Royal Navy that the dominions would prove unable to muster the professionalism and capable leadership inherent to the British Navy proper. To lead this new fleet, the British Admiralty had turned to the talented if controversial and youthful Australian-born Rear Admiral John Saumarez Dumaresq to lead and shape the nascent fleet. An innovator and free-thinker, Dumaresq had proven instrumental in championing naval aviation within the Dominion Fleet, but had struggled to secure the funding he had hoped for to build the new fleet - finding himself forced to limit the amount of heavy carriers and battleships in favor of cheaper and lighter constructions of Battlecruisers and Light Carriers. His experiments had seen the development of a high level of professionalization and competence amongst the naval air corps of the fleet, but had left the surface forces neglected by the end of the 1920s. In response to Dumaresq's failures to maintain the professionalism of the surface fleet, and his inability to secure a proper contingent of battleships for the Dominion Fleet, the Admiral would ultimately see himself forced from his post - being named as Chief of the Australian Navy in a promotion which removed him effective command. His replacement was to be the British-born Vice-Admiral Sir Humphrey Thomas Walwyn, an appointment which drew considerable outrage on the part of the Australians and helped spur the disillusionment of the Australians with their British cousins. An admiral of the old school, Walwyn was a strong proponent of Battleship warfare and largely sidelined Dumaresq's naval aviation projects in favor of heavy investment in the surface fleet - relying on contacts in the British Admiralty to secure the transfer of four battleships to compliment the six battlecruisers already stationed in Singapore. Over the following years, Walwyn would further strengthen the surface fleet with two more battleships. In Walwyn's estimation, the role of naval aviation was to serve as scouting force for the navy proper, which would close the distance to the enemy after they had been found by the light carriers whereupon they would engage in a knock-down, drawn out brawl with the opposing surface fleet, relying on their professionalism and the traditions of the British Navy to come out on top. Increasingly unhappy with Walwyn, the Dominions were finally able to secure his replacement by the far better liked Admiral Sir Wilbraham Tennyson Randle Ford, a Channel Islands-born navy man greatly loved by his men for his unceasing optimism, kindness towards his subordinates and boundless humor - being famed for playing pranks and practical jokes upon anyone and everyone. However, he was known for being exceedingly strict with his English officers and often came into conflict with the Admiralty on a variety of issues, primarily stemming from the Admiralty's overeager interference in his commands. Having served in both the Mediterranean Fleet and as navy commander during the capture of Hormuz, Admiral Ford had made a bit of a name for himself by the time he was chosen to succeed Walwyn in early 1936, bare weeks before the March Coup in Japan turned the relatively sedate posting in Singapore into an active duty station (13).

    Since the Battle of Tsushima, Japanese Naval Strategy had been fundamentally defensive, oriented around large decisive battles in home waters. Imagining the Philippine Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan as their favored battle zones where they could bring to bear all their naval resources, both land and sea based, against the enemy with little chance for the enemy to do the same, the Japanese sought to secure a victory which would wipe the enemy from the face of the sea and allow them total control of the sea-lanes. Known as the Kantai Kessen - the Decisive Battle Doctrine, the plan had largely been targeted at defeating the United States Navy on the basis of their being viewed as the only real challenger to Japanese power in the Pacific - the British being seen as allies by and large during the formulation of Japan's naval strategy. The result had been a continual, and growing, naval expenditure throughout Prime Minister Yamamoto Gonbee's term of office which had driven Japan to possessing not only the single largest navy in the Pacific, but to it sitting as one of the premier naval powers of the world. While initial investment had focused on the strengthening of the Big Gun Fleet of Battleships and Battlecruisers advances in naval aviation had seen the navy gradually increase its investments in airpower and doctrine following major improvements in the performance of naval bombing aircrafts and carrier construction, with mass aerial assaults increasingly seen as a viable alternative to the big gun approach. However, by the start of the Japanese Civil War, the Big Gun advocates had still held the upper hand in the ongoing debate, leaving the investment in carrier and naval aviation technology a secondary focus. While subsequent actions at Dogojima and the Inner Seas had helped demonstrate the worth of air power, the distribution of resources remained in favor of the Big Gun doctrine and as such necessitated a continuation of the pre-Civil War approach to the dispatch of the Dominion Fleet despite the leadership of the Imperial People's Navy having come under the dominance of air-power proponents. It had taken until early December for word to reach the People's Shogunate of Britain's entry into the war, meaning that they were sent scrambling to reconstitute their fleet for the decisive clash to come after having dispersed it to secure control of Japan's colonial empire in the Pacific. At the same time, the recently reformed Naval General Staff worked around the clock to adapt their plans to war with the British - whose naval prowess was widely admired and feared in Japanese ranks, the Japanese Navy having built itself in the image of the Royal British Navy. The rapidly adapted plans which emerged thus called for the rapid dispatch of Japan's submarine flotilla and supporting cruiser and destroyer flotillas southward - aiming to set a perimeter south of Taiwan in the Philippine and South China Seas which would serve to weaken the advancing Dominion fleet by attrition before the decisive battle through destroyer night attacks and submarine ambushes. In the meanwhile, the Combined Fleet was to be rapidly reconstituted at the Sasebo Naval Base near Nagasaki with Admiral-Shogun Yamamoto Isoroku taking up personal command of the reconstituted Combined Fleet while appointing Admiral Inoue Shigeyoshi of Dogojima fame to command the Carrier Fleet, recently promoted Vice Admiral Ito Seiichi to command of the Main Battlefleet and command of the screening force of cruisers and destroyers to Rear Admiral Fukudome Shigeru. Fleet-based air operations were handed over to Captain Genda Minoru while ground-based aerial operations were turned over to Genda's close colleague Captain Fuchida Mitsuo (14).

    As the Dominion Fleet steamed into the South China Sea on the afternoon of the 28th of December - reinforced by detachments from the Persian Gulf Station, India Station and East Africa Station with men further mobilized from the Royal Naval Reserve, they made what preparations they could to protect the heart of their fleet. Constant aerial scouting from the Dominion Light Carriers and a screen of destroyers sought to prevent premature losses while a constant watch from the middle of the second day of sailing sought to ensure that the Dominion Navy would make it to the battlefield intact. It would take until the 30th before the first encounters between Dominion and Japanese naval units occurred with the ambush sinking of the destroyer HMS Hostile off the Parcel Islands by the submarine I-4 and of HMS Grafton by I-2, the latter of which was damaged by subsequent ASW efforts by the British. On the night of the 30th-31st, a major Japanese destroyer attack by IPNJ Destroyer Squadrons 1-5 of the 1st Fleet occurred north of the Parcel Islands in which the extremely long-range and immensely innovative Type-93 Torpedoes loaded aboard the IPNJ destroyer flotilla were put to use. The extreme distances at which these torpedoes could be fired meant that the attack went largely undetected by the British until the first torpedoes struck, resulting in considerable damage - despite almost 90% of the torpedoes missing. Five destroyers were sunk alongside three cruisers and the heavy cruiser HMAS Canberra was gravely damaged alongside the Battleship HMS Emperor of India, which had been sold to the Indian section of the Dominion Navy in 1931 as part of Walwyn's Big Gun focused fleet building, while half a dozen other ships saw varying levels of lesser damage. Unwilling to slow down and thereby allow for more potshots to be taken at the Dominion Fleet, Admiral Ford directed the HMS Emperor of India and the other more damaged ships of the fleet to make for temporary shelter at Hong Kong while the main fleet continued onward under significantly tightened watch. This decision was to eventually draw considerable recrimination, for the weakened and wounded splinter fleet under the HMS Emperor of India was to find itself a target of several submarine attacks in the two days it took them to reach Hong Kong, with a second torpedo attack breaking the keel of the HMS Canberra and blowing a massive hole in its side, from which it would sink within two hours while the HMS Emperor of India just barely avoided a similar fate when the torpedoes fired at it by I-13 passed through its wake, striking an accompanying Destroyer a glancing blow. The 31st would see further submarine attacks against the main Dominion Fleet, but also saw Japanese losses accelerate considerably with three submarines sunk in return for a sunken destroyer and a wounded light cruiser in the form of HMS Cordelia which limped on with the rest of the fleet after emergency repairs resolved most of the issues with the damage. New Years Night saw the Dominion Fleet pass through the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines in the face of the fiercest attack yet. Now prepared for a night attack, the two destroyer flotillas clashed in a series of bloody exchanges during the night that followed, seeing half a dozen sunk on either side and a torpedo attack on the Battleship line by the Japanese which forced the light cruisers HMNZS Achilles and HMS Emerald to interpose themselves to take the successive blows. However, the launching of the Dominion Fleet's air contingent was to help make up the losses, sinking, or slowing long enough for their pursuers to catch them, the IPN Oi, Isuzu and Kitakami Light Cruisers alongside the destroyers Inazuma, Ikazuchi, Fubuki, Murakumo and Miyuki, the latter exploding when the volatile Type-93 torpedoes detonated in response to the concussive blows given the destroyer - a grave loss to the IPN screening forces which forced their recall from the South China and Philippine Seas. The first day of the 1937 was to dawn with the first major aerial clashes between the two forces, as ground-based fighters and bombers out of Taiwan and the southern Ryukyus initiated an intense attack on the Dominion fleet which required the entirety of the British air forces to repel the attackers. The dog fight which erupted was bitterly intense, with numerous losses on both sides, but while the British had introduced the modern Gladiator navy fighter in late-1936, the Dominion Fleet was forced to rely on the significantly older Hawker Nimrod which stood up rather poorly to the relatively modern Japanese Nakajima A4N fighter, while a series of aerial torpedo attacks and dive bombings left the HMS Hermes light carrier with a swiftly spreading fire below deck, blew the turret of HMS Malaya and succeeded in blowing a gaping hole in the side of the Battlecruiser HMNZS Auckland, although once again a preponderance of the torpedoes missed their target. Heavy anti-air efforts by the rest of the fleet eventually helped drive off the aerial assault, just as the Dominion Fleet finally made the push into the East China Sea - passing between Mikayojima and Okinawa shortly after mid-day on the 1st. The stage was now set for the Battle of the East China Sea and all participants stood ready for the bloody clash to follow. With scouting flights out of the Ryukyus sending constant updates back to the Home Isles, wherefrom they kept Admiral-Shogun Yamamoto aware of the progress of the Dominion Fleet, the decision was finally made to launch the Combined Fleet - which had been undergoing rapid coordination drills and familiarization efforts between the various fleet commands, individual ships and squadrons - on the morning of the 1st of January 1937. The harassment of the Dominion Fleet continued throughout the day, forcing the navy personnel to remain at quarters constantly - a state they had been forced into for days at this point, resulting in ever worsening exhaustion amongst the sailors even before the battle began. However, by nightfall the Dominion Fleet was making its way well into the East China Sea, gradually emerging from the umbrella of the Japanese ground-based aviation in order to allow Admiral Ford to give his men a short but much needed rest. A blood red sun rose out of the east on the winter morning of the 2nd, the conditions at sea worsening gradually as midday neared. Since dawn, the Dominion Fleet had sent out scouting air craft to search for the Japanese Fleet, which was expected to be steaming to meet them, while repairs from the previous day's harassment were undertaken and those who could were allowed to rest. Suddenly, shortly past noon, one of the scouting aircrafts returned to the fleet bullet ridden and smoking with word that the Combined Fleet was coming their way from the North-North-East. With both forces now aware of the other's position, they began to close the range while the entire compliment of the three Hiryu-Class Fleet Air Carriers - a class planned and built as purpose-built carriers between 1934-36 on the basis of lessons learned in the construction and non-combat service of the Ryujo-class Carriers between 1928-1931, took to the heavens in the first massed naval aviation assault in world history (15).

    The first shots of the Battle of the East China Sea would be airborne, as the Dominion carriers HMS Furious, HMS Hermes and HMS Australia disgorged their swarm of fighters in a well coordinated scramble - allowing them to put up a fierce resistance to the oncoming wave of Japanese fighters. The dog fight that followed, which saw nearly one hundred twenty fighters clash while several dozen torpedo and dive bombers made their way through the fighting, was incredibly intense with nearly two dozen Japanese fighters lost for some eighteen Dominion fighters before the naval bombers broke through the British air cover and initiated their assault on the Dominion Fleet. Torpedo after torpedo was dropped while dive bombers entered their final approaches amidst a storm of anti-air fire which raked several of the attacking aircrafts. However, when the assault wave hit it did so with calamitous effect. The HMS Furious was holed in three placed before a bomb dropped on its wooden top set the ship ablaze while three of the eleven Dominion Battleships were damaged, a fourth set to sinking alongside two Battlecruisers - requiring rapid rescue efforts to get most of the personnel off the two Battlecruisers. An additional half dozen ships were holed or sunk while a daring dive bomber was able to steer his thoroughly trashed airplane into the conning tower of the HMS Sydney - the flagship of the Dominion Navy. While Admiral Ford survived the crash, several of his staff did not and he was forced to shift his flag to the HMS Royal Sovereign, which had only joined the Dominion Fleet from the Mediterranean in December as rapid preparations were undertaken for the current expedition, weakening his ability to coordinate the fleet for some time. As the Japanese attackers began to pull back they experienced grievous losses, half of the attacking wave of bombers being lost in the process while the escorting fighters put up a bitter resistance to pursuit. It was at this point that Admiral Ford ordered the dispatch of the Dominion Fleet's own air compliment while repair efforts were undertaken as best could be done under the circumstances as the direct clash between the two fleets loomed. The British attack, which was about a third smaller than the Japanese, was to prove a rousing success - catching the Japanese unprepared for the sudden assault. With only a skeleton air complement to counter this thrust, they were swiftly swept from the heavens while the Dominion bombers made their own runs. The dive bombers and torpedo bombers, led by veterans trained in the Dumaresq days, were exceedingly effective, hammering home against the Amagi and Hiei Battlecruisers - sinking them, while setting ablaze the Ryojo, which capsized soon after, and succeeded in blowing turrets on the Mutso and Hyuga Battleships, but experienced significant losses - in a near mirror of the situation when the Dominion Fleet was attacked. While the Hiryu and its sister ships Soryu and Akaryu were largely able to avoid most of the damage, having been positioned at a distance from the main battlefleet, the last of these carriers saw two of its fighters explode on deck, requiring rapid firefighting to prevent the ship from being set ablaze, when a lone dive bomber struck the carrier force. By this point the two fleets were closing rapidly, with initial long-range fire beginning to be exchanged while the respective screens sallied forth to engage each other in a short but exceedingly bloody melee which largely went in the favor of the Japanese, their significant advantage in long-range torpedoes swaying the course of the battle in their favor. However, after a few long range barrages which drove drumbeats across either line at distance, but failed to make a significant impact, the two fleets were interrupted by the rapidly oncoming night. During the night between the 2nd and 3rd of January, the two fleets would circle each other in the dark, exchanging fire on occasion when their ships neared one another as the various naval formations gradually got tangled up with each other - a destroyer running into a light cruiser causing the former to sink on the Japanese side while the cruiser was knocked into a slow list which required considerable effort to right before the ship capsized. It would take until the hours just before dawn before the Japanese shifted course, coming out of the west with night at their rear and the sun dawning in front of them. Caught against the dawning sun lay the Dominion Fleet, clear cut against the horizon, while the Japanese still remained in the dark of night. The result was to provide the Japanese with the tactical element of surprise, launching a series of disorganized torpedo barrages before the Battleships and Battlecruisers opened up with a massive barrage at medium-distance. The initial surprise was what determined the course of the fighting, sending a pair of Battleships to sinking while immense damage was done to the screening elements. By the third barrage on the part of the Japanese, Admiral Ford had been able to redirect his forces to counter-fire, setting in motion the most intense exchange of the entire battle as the two lines closed the distance. Both sides were battered beyond all belief, ships falling apart under the intensity of the barrages. Blow after blow was exchanged, with a Japanese Battleship exploding from a lucky hit to its magazine and two of the British Battlecruisers sent limping away from the main clash. Twice more, the two sides would ram against each other, the two fleets tearing at each other like mad dogs, before finally the Dominion Fleet's cohesion fell apart and Admiral Ford - who had been forced to change ship once more after the HMS Royal Sovereign sank beneath him, called for a retreat. Admiral-Shogun Yamamoto Isoroku, realizing that his Battleships and Battlecruisers were too damaged to pursue, handed over command of the chase to Admiral Inoue Shigeyoshi and his carrier fleet - both sides carrier elements having been sidelined in the main clash of the two fleets, giving them time to repair and prepare. In disarray, the Dominion Fleet retreated southward towards the Taiwan Strait, making for Hong Kong, with their carrier air complement sacrificing themselves in the effort to shield the retreat. Repeated dog fights broke out on the retreat south as the Dominion aircraft were gradually whittled away at, the Japanese bomber force beginning to make its presence known once more - experiencing significantly improved survivability hunting a broken enemy compared to when they were challenging the full might of the fleet. Ship after ship was run down and sunk over the following day as sailors collapsed from exhaustion while the overclocked fighter pilots made ever more deadly mistakes. As the fleeing Dominion Fleet fell within the Taiwanese air envelope once again, the harassment doubled, before Admiral Inoue's carrier fleet was called back from its pursuit late on the 5th, south of Taiwan - the remnants of the Dominion Fleet limping into the port of Hong Kong over the following three days (16).

    The Battle of the East China Sea was to prove an era-defining clash which set in motion a whole host of changes. Not only had the Communist menace demonstrated themselves to possess a supremely capable naval element able to go toe-to-toe with the best in the world, they also fractured the aura of invincibility once possessed by the Royal Navy. Where the naval clashes of the Great War had been relatively indecisive affairs, with unclear victors and losers in what few major naval encounters occurred, this latest battle was the definition of decisive. While the Imperial People's Navy Combined Fleet slowly made its way back to port in Sasebo, battered and bleeding but victorious, word of the battle spread with lightning speed around the world. In Australia and New Zealand a week of public mourning was initiated while Prime Minister Jack Lang publicly castigated the British Admiralty for leading Australian boys to their deaths over another country's internal affairs, in the process leaving the Australasian Dominions at the complete mercy of the Japanese. In New Zealand, which had invested so many of its resources in building up the Dominion Fleet to serve as a bulwark against Japanese aggression, news of the calamity sent shockwaves through society and led to widespread anti-British protests and incredible displays of public mourning. In India, while the loss of the Indian naval compliment was met with anger, more emphasis would be put upon the demonstrable weakness of the British which the battle had shown - greatly empowering and emboldening an already eager independence movement. Admiral Ford, despite having done everything in his power to win the battle, was made a scapegoat for the defeat and was cashiered and removed from active posting for the affair. As to the Loyalists in Chosun, they were unable to comprehend this course of events. The British Navy had always been held up as the foremost marine force on the world's seas - it was an undisputed fact - while the Revolutionaries had thrown out most of the admirals with experience and the capacity to go toe-to-toe with the British. The British were not supposed to lose this battle. When General Nagata finally pulled together enough confidence to inform Emperor Genka of the British defeat, he was so sharply criticized by the Emperor that he allegedly contemplated seppuku on returning to the General Government Building, even going so far as to have his swords prepared and picking an adjutant to behead him, before he was brought to his senses by Prime Minister Hiranuma Kiichiro. The arrival of the Combined Fleet in Sasebo was celebrated across the Japanese Home Isles, pictures of Admiral-Shogun Yamamoto, Kita Ikki and Emperor Koji being carried through the streets while a week of national public celebration was declared. It was at this point that the Soviet Republic, which had been following events in Japan with considerable eagerness if without active support, at the direction of Commissar for Foreign Affairs Georgy Chicherin set forth a proposal to aid in the negotiation of a ceasefire between the People's Shogunate and their opponents. Meeting with approval from the Shogun Council, the first diplomatic feelers were undertaken in the middle of January in London where the political aftermath of the entire affair was playing out explosively. With the situation chaotic and the British Empire under fundamental threat, a threat further highlighted by the arrival of elements of the IPNJ 3rd Fleet off Hong Kong on the 18th of January, the decision was made at Whitehall to bring the whole sorry affair to a close before the Communists could go on a rampage across the Pacific. As a result, negotiations were soon under way in Vladivostok between representatives from the Loyalist and Revolutionary governments as well as the British. Over the course of a month the details of a treaty were hammered out which would allow the British to shift their gravely damaged Dominion Fleet south from the Hong Kong Harbor to Singapore for repairs in return for a minor indemnity and acknowledgement of the People's Shogunate as the rightful government of the Japanese Home Isles and Japan's Pacific possessions. While the Loyalists screamed betrayal, the British envoy Sir Hughe Montgomery Knatchbull-Hugessen signed off on the agreement - ignominiously removing Britain from the conflict once more. Left with little other option but to accept the situation, the Loyalist envoy Prince Konoe Fumimaro signed off on a ceasefire agreement on the 8th of March 1937 but refused to sign any treaty which would abandon Emperor Genka's claim to being the rightful ruler of the Japanese Empire. As such an official state of war would be maintained between the two Japanese states, although military clashes came to an end. The Japanese Civil War had come to an end in just under a year, but in that short year it fundamentally reordered the geopolitical situation in the Pacific and brought fear of the rising tide of Communism roaring back to life around the world. A new day dawned on the Japanese People, and the world would never be the same again (17).

    Footnotes:
    (9) This is a lot, I know, and I really hope that people can understand what I am trying to describe. The idea of reimposing a Shogunate upon Japan is actually an idea brought up by Hashimoto Kingoro IOTL and others in the more radical segments of the Kodoha faction. Granted the shape of this People's Shogunate is considerably different from anything they would have proposed IOTL but I hope that given the mix of Trotskyite militarism, Kitan sentimental nationalism and general socialist ambition this ends up making sense. The Kyosanto leadership who are largely responsible for the form this new government takes are purposefully trying to bolster the new government's nativist credits by leaning into a very uniquely Japanese institution in the Shogunate, even if it bears more of a resemblance to the Soviet structures in Russia than the Tokugawa Shogunate. It is worth noting that with this shift in government, the People's Shogunate adopts the Trotskyite practice of referring even to civilian endeavors as military campaigns and using military terminology to organize the state. They are not actually going through with a total militarization of the state, just incorporating some of its elements in how they tackle issues of government. The Japanese Communists end up with a model with much clearer lines than the obfuscated and complicated Soviet bureaucracy, but in the process adopt a significantly less overtly democratic model. I should note that the Army and Navy Councils hold seats for those of rank on either General Staff and for major commanders - although they will prove to often be represented by stand-ins representing the interests of the relevant appointee. There are democratic elements to the system, but it is most definitely a large step back from the democratic heyday of the Yamamoto Gonbee administrations. As to the Era Name, I have here used an alternative era name rejected for use IOTL when Reiwa was selected. The first kanji, 広, means “wide” or “vast”, while 至 can mean “destination,” “high” or “extreme” - which combined hold a pretty abstract meaning coming out to something very like Great Arrival. Considering the context of TTL I felt Koji was immensely fitting to the circumstances and therefore chose to adopt it here.

    Takahito is honestly a pretty interesting figure - when he saw the Japanese army's conduct in China (specifically using Chinese PoWs for bayonet practice), he wrote a letter to his brother the Emperor criticizing the Army harshly - the letter ended up being censored and a single copy eventually turned up in 1994. In 1940 he saw a special screening of the germ bombing of Nanbo and was so moved and disgusted by it that he forced the Emperor to watch the movie so that he would understand how out of control the situation had become. After the war ended he was a leading voice in demanding that his brother take responsibility for the war and abdicate, which McArthur was the one to shut down. In the post-war world he was known as the Imperial Scholar and studied archaeology, Middle Eastern studies and Semitic languages. He seems to have been immensely forthright, having had a strong moral compass and a deep intellect, which made me feel that he was the best candidate to take on the role of People's Emperor.

    (10) Rather than the victor of Pearl Habor and half a dozen other great battles of OTL, Nagumo becomes the last Government Hero ITTL for his resistance to the revolutionary government. Once again, the fact that the naval aviation faction of the navy falls entirely on the radical side of the political spectrum helps determine the course of the naval encounter - significantly strengthening support for the ultra-modern navies advocated by the naval aviation crowd. I felt that it was necessary to show that the revolutionaries don't get everything their way from the start, they are forced to fight to secure their claim to rule and in the process shed even more blood in the process. The poor quality of the Naval Ground Forces also makes itself known once more, as they crumble in the face of the hardened and well-equipped Imperial People's Army. I should probably explain the Imperial People's moniker - I thought it helped convey the image of a monarchist socialist regime which wants to emphasize both parts.

    (11) The Soviet Republic's control of Siberia was already troubling to the Western Powers, but a Communist Japan is a hundred times worse. The large and well trained Japanese Navy is a creature which has shown itself capable of going toe-to-toe with Western navies in the past (and would demonstrate that same capability IOTL during WW2). As such, the international community feels forced to enter the conflict, setting in motion the entry of the British Empire as an active combatant and both France and the US as supporting powers on the Loyalist side.

    (12) The Toseiha faction and the modernists really take over the Loyalist cause as a whole, side-lining the more radical Kodoha members and their more out-there civilian ideologues. It is worth noting that IOTL a similar development happened, with the Toseiha faction winning out in the intra-service clashes with Kodoha, and that it was the Toseiha faction which led the Japanese Empire into the Second World War - just because they aren't completely nuts doesn't necessarily make them a great alternative. At the same time we see the Revolutionaries consolidate their hold on the Japanese island possessions, including capturing Taiwan, Okinawa and Jeju. Yasuhito really takes all of this very poorly, but ultimately he probably comes out of it a better monarch than he went into it. While he is a lot less trusting of those around him, he is also much more open to compromise and cooperation with those who might not necessarily agree with him and is capable of developing working relationships with them. Prior to this he struggled to remain civil when faced with those he dislikes.

    (13) I felt it necessary to go through and detail the development of the Dominion Fleet here, just as it gets under way for the fateful clash with the Imperial People's Navy of Japan. I have Dumaresq surviving past 1922 ITTL because he seems like an intriguing figure who would have been the most natural candidate for leadership of the Dominion Fleet at its inception. He is proudly Australian and as such is a great figure to demonstrate the British willingness to abide by their decision to hand power of the Dominion Fleet to the dominions. His naval aviation focus is based on OTL, where he was noted for his focus on that aspect of naval affairs and for his innovative and new thinking ways. However, these very elements are what result in him being out of favor with the British Admiralty, limiting his ability to amass a fleet capable of what it should do. The appointment of Walwyn is a clear breach of the British promise to hand over leadership to the dominions, and while he does strengthen the Dominion fleet considerably his draconian ways and dismissive attitude towards the Dominion Fleet (an attitude rife in Royal Navy ranks) leaves him intensely unpopular with the men. He is finally replaced by Admiral Ford who finds himself thrust suddenly into a position of considerable importance with little time to acclimate to his post or shape it to his interests - although by the end of the year he has gotten a decent handle of the situation. Naval affairs are not my strong suit, so I hope you will forgive me being a bit vague on the details - I am trying to keep it plausible and reading up what I can but this is not a topic I am super familiar with or versed in.

    (14) In general this whole naval campaign has been a significant challenge to work out because there are just so many divergences and differences in the years between the PoD and this point, but there are some elements which remain largely static. It is worth noting that the Kantai Kessen doctrine was a very stable part of Japanese naval war planning from the beginning, and that their target was the United States consistently after the end of the Great War, even when the Anglo-Japanese Alliance came to an end. While the naval aviation crowd is ascendant in the revolutionary navy, there were a lot of important naval innovations in the last half of the 1930s IOTL which made an air-power first strategy viable - it is not quite there yet by the time of the coming clash. The various commanders of the different forces have been receiving a rapid series of promotions since the start of the Civil War, as the Government and subsequent Revolutionary leaderships seek to promote their supporters up the ranks which is why someone like Ito Seiichi would have a Vice Admiral rank or Fukodome Shigeru a Rear Admiral rank.

    (15) The entire reason for the Dominion Fleet being dispatched is the need to clear away the naval interdiction of Chosun in order to open up for the landing of the Loyalist armies for a reconquest of the Home Isles. The calculations which go into determining the resultant dispatch of the Dominion Fleet are not particularly bound up in the details of how such a campaign is to play out - while the Dominion Fleet Headquarters have made plenty of plans for dealing with the Japanese in a naval conflict, the same cannot be said for the British Admiralty who have largely been focused on the Atlantic, Mediterranean and Indian naval theaters - and it is the latter demanding that the Dominion Fleet engage the Japanese revolutionaries directly on the basis of reports from the Loyalists that they have purged most of their navy's staff officers. Admiral Ford soon realizes that he has been sent on a much more dangerous expedition than expected, and makes what preparations he can, but it isn't like he can just sit back and do nothing - they have to find and engage the Japanese in a decisive battle, as both sides' naval doctrines call for in the region, or there will be hell to pay in London. Just a note, the lack of a Washington Treaty has meant that a lot of ships which were converted to carriers or decommissioned IOTL are still in service and carrier development, particularly in Japan, has taken a completely different path. The Hiryu and Ryujo classes are different from their OTL counterparts seeing as the lack of conversion of Battlecruisers/Battleships into the Akagi/Amagi and Kaga leave the Japanese to rely on alternate purpose-built carriers. The Ryujo-Class possesses a lot of the issues of the two aforementioned conversions although without having to deal with the conversion troubles it still ends up a significantly more useful structure. The Ryujo sees failures in the flight deck which lead to their recall and refit in 1932-33 alongside a further reduction of the top structures on the basis of lessons learned in the Hosho IOTL, although problems with propulsion plague the Hiryu and Ryujo classes both and they remain top-heavy, like many other Japanese ships of the period - it is a problem which has come to attention only after the Battle of Dogojima and the troubles faced in the Akagi after the battle.

    (16) I really hope that all of this is suitably epic and doesn't send too many of the naval buffs out there into fits. This is probably the single largest naval battle since Jutland and ends up a stinging British defeat mostly as a result of them having to cross the long distance to the battlefield through Japanese waters. I am sorry about the lack of specificity at points, particularly the headlong clash between the two Big Gun fleets, but I hope that this was sufficiently impressive.

    (17) I will be providing a lot more context for the how and why of the British entering the Japanese Civil War and departing it so shortly thereafter at a later point, much as I did with the Two Rivers Crisis. There is a lot going on behind the scenes and a lot of political machinations which led to this course of events. I know that there are likely many who would want a second round go around by the British, but it is worth a reminder that the British Empire was already significantly overstretched before they lost most of the Dominion Fleet and this defeat has just made the whole situation a hundred times worse. While they will be dispatching ships from the Home Fleet and Mediterranean to help shore up some of the losses, there are just so many different requirements elsewhere that they can't muster up sufficient forces to launch a second assault. Additionally, their entire Australasian Dominions and various concessions in China are now largely undefended by sea and as such the British Foreign Office comes under intense pressure to resolve the issue before things spin completely out of control. The Dominions of Australia and New Zealand take the defeat especially hard, having invested so heavily in the fleet which was just sunk to the bottom of the seas at the insistence of the British Admiralty - overriding all concerns expressed on the part of the Dominions.

    End Note:

    Written as I just finished this section:

    Holy shit, I did it! :D

    I honestly did not know how the hell I was going to get this to work, but I feel it ended up working out quite well.

    I will be honest, when I first thought of a Red Shogunate I had absolutely no clue if I would be able to figure out a plausible explanation for how it came about. It took quite a bit of back and forth with @Ombra before the shape of something workable began to emerge, but I do think that what I have ended with should satisfy those wishing for plausibility. I just remember getting this image in my head of Communist Samurai Banzai charging an enemy line and couldn't let it go.

    Written after edits, just before posting:

    It took a lot of work to finesse things into shape, but I hope that the end result is sufficiently memorable for everyone out there. I can remember working on this section of the timeline during the late Summer, swimming in the sea while thinking about how all the different pieces forces and doctrines would line up against each other. I am far from an expert on naval affairs, so there was an immense amount of research that had to go into writing this update. I was not on purpose that the battle ended up coinciding exactly with when the Battle of the East China Sea was going to be posted, but I find it a fun little additional wrinkle to the whole thing.

    Can't wait to see what everyone thinks of this one.

    I hope everyone is enjoying the New Year and that the coming year treats us better than the last. Best of wishes, and I really hope you all enjoyed the Japanese Civil War arc of updates during the Christmas holidays.
     
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    Update Thirty-Six (Pt. 3): Calamity Entailed
  • Calamity Entailed

    21congresso.jpg

    First Meeting of the Italian Constituent Assembly

    Building The New Hegemony​

    When Communist Italy emerged from the bitter and bloody Italian Civil War, it was left to deal with a state which had for all intents and purposes completely collapsed. While the immediate post-reconstruction was undertaken by the leadership of the Italian Communist Party on a purely ad-hoc basis it soon became clear that the revolutionary government would need to re-establish an actual framework for their young state. Was Italy to remain a Monarchy or turn to Republicanism? Would they be left under the dictatorial rule of the Communist Party's Central Committee or would Democracy be established? What was the foundation upon which this new state was to draw its legitimacy, having rejected both King and Church? All these questions and many more consumed the young Communist state. Already in early 1925 did the first major debates on these issues begin to circulate more widely, with the eventual calling of elections for a Constituent Assembly in October of 1925 to take charge of formulating the foundations of their nascent state. The Constituent Assembly was elected on the basis of universal suffrage for all men and women older than the age of 18 according to a proportional election system based on regional representation from some sixty provinces in all, mostly based on the territorial divisions in place at the end of the Great War. While officially open to all political affiliations, right-wing and center-right political parties were largely pressured by expropriations, surveillance and various other chicanery to weaken their grip on resources and support amongst the populace. Ultimately the party furthest to the right to secure representation at the Constituent Assembly would be the People's Party under Don Luigi Sturzo, while the venerable Republican Party led by Pietro Nenni presented the only other real party of influence on the left to the juggernaut of the Communist Party - which secured the vast majority of seats in the Assembly. Voter turnout in the south would prove relatively low in the 1925 Constituent Assembly Elections, with many still holding sympathies with either the government in Sicily or just maintaining a dislike for the northern, socialist dominated, new state. This new body seated some 500 members, of which almost 50 would prove to be women, and included politicians, philosophers, artists, revolutionary heroes and much else. The Constituent Assembly was to serve as Socialist Italy's parliamentary body from January of 1926 till December of 1929, both working to set out the foundations of the new state and serving as the primary body of comment and critique on the actions of the Emergency Government of the Communist Party - although the vast majority of the Constitution would be drafted by a much smaller Special Committee officially chaired by Antonio Gramsci and loaded with Centrist Communist leaders, even if there would be representation from the two other major parties in the form of both Sturzo and Nenni, and the Anarchists in Malatesta and several of his followers. To direct the Constituent Assembly, they elected the revolutionary war hero and close Gramsci ally, Palmiro Togliatti as President of the Constituent Assembly - a position which would serve to firmly cement the intensely intelligent and steadfast Togliatti at the heart of Italian Politics. With its preponderance of leftist and anti-monarchist parties, it should come as little surprise that the Constituent Assembly moved with astonishing speed to abolish the monarchy and confiscate the vast majority of the Savoy Dynasty's possessions in Italy proper, while those members of the House of Savoy who had failed to escape the oncoming Communist tide were placed on house arrest if they hadn't been killed during their initial encounters with their captors. In fact, this effort extended far beyond just the royal house, as noble families found themselves the particular focus of expropriations, with palaces, villas, parks, manors and all sorts of other properties being confiscated wholesale by the government alongside the immense amounts of church property which had fallen into their hands. While a relatively swift and orderly process in the northern reaches of the country, where the Communists were strongest and their noble counterparts weakest, the crackdown on the nobility in the south would prove a major source of conflict and tension during the first decades of the young Republic's lifespan. This was to be demonstrated in the Calitri Massacre and various other violent clashes between the government and the rural south. Viewing democratic legitimacy as key to the long-term survivability of their state, the Special Committee and Constituent Assembly firmly approved of establishing their state in the guise of a Republic. Viewing a bicameral system as fundamentally inequal, the new Republic was to consist of a single People's Assembly from which would be elected a Chairman of the Assembly to direct the affairs of the Assembly. Elections were to be called at the latest five years after the last elections at the behest of the Chairman or at the request of a 6/10 majority of the Assembly, if it were before the five year limit. With the Centrists having secured a major victory by gaining a unicameral legislature, the Anarchists on the Special Committee soon went into open opposition and allied with the People's Party and Republican Party both in an effort to weaken central power in the executive branch - a struggle which would wage back and forth for years and ultimately culminate in the Anarchists' departure from the Communist Party. The opposition wished to put in place a relatively weak central executive - which they were almost certain would prove of Centrist Communist colors, and instead hoped for the strengthening of the provincial institutional bodies to counter the power and authority of the central government. It is notable that this period of negotiation and debate saw a long and drawn out conflict erupt over whether to implement an added level of government between the provincial and national level. Debate on the issue would move from the Special Committee to the full Constituent Assembly in mid-1926, where the discussion soon turned bitterly combative as debate over which regions to implement, if one were to implement them, should be established and what their borders should be. The matter soon began to bog down in a reflection of Italy's fragmented historical, local and cultural borders to the point that many of the more orthodox communists in the Assembly began to express their distaste at the emergence of "Regional Nationalism" - eventually resulting it the abandonment of the idea entirely. Ultimately the result of discussions and debate on the shape of the executive branch was to result in something of an unwieldly compromise, with a tri-partite structure emerging to resolve worries about a Centrist dictatorship - consisting of a President, a Council of Provinces and a Council of Ministers. The President of the Republic would be elected by universal suffrage to a fixed five year term and was seated at the head of the state - serving mostly as an arbiter and ceremonial head. The Council of the Provinces would serve as a representative body for the provinces with appointees selected by provincial assemblies to ensure the interests of the individual provinces were protected in the face of the central government. Finally a Council of Ministers headed by a Chairman, selected by the President, took command the central government, the Chairman appointing the members of the Council and directly governing the state bureaucracy. Notably, the President retained a veto on legislation and wrote legislation into law, held the right to call a general referendum with the force of law - an addition to the presidential remit thought up by Antonio Gramsci to further strengthen the voice of the people and backed by Pietro Nenni, to the utter outrage of the Anarchists - who viewed it as the imposition of a dictatorship of the majority. Additionally, the President would hold the right to appoint the Chairman of the Council of Ministers - although only the People's Assembly could remove the Chairman by a vote of 2/3 before the end of the presidential term, held the right to accredit and receive diplomats, the power to declare war with the ascent of the People's Assembly and the position as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Thus, while the President was limited in his direct exercise of power, he had the potential to hold an incredible amount of sway over the course of the young People's Republic - as it was increasingly being termed by the Constituent Assembly. With this basic structure finally in place, the focus could be placed upon the Fundamental Principles of the People's Republic. The democratic nature of the Republic was established as the basis on which the state's sovereignty rested was established while the constitution obliged the state to "Always Serve as The Guiding Light of The World Revolution". It expressed the equality of all, regardless of sex, race, language, religion, personal or social conditions, and established that the government must ensure the freedom and equality of its citizenship. Local autonomy and the rights of minorities were also explicitly acknowledged while the state was ordered to promote scientific, technical and cultural development while safeguarding the environmental, historical and artistic heritage of the Italian Peoples. Individual rights were enshrined in the new constitution with the notable exception of right to property - as this was held as a central measure whereby inequality and inequity could be allowed to fester and grow within the Republic as it aged. As a flag, it adopted the Italian Tricolor of vertical green, white and red, without the defacing Arms of Savoy, while Milan was declared the Capital of the Italian People's Republic with Rome to serve as a secondary Capital. With all of these considerations finally in order, alongside a host of lesser issues, the Constituent Assembly voted in favor of the proposed Constitution of Italy 463-55 in November of 1929 (18)

    The unity of the Communist Party of Italy was already beginning to crumble well before the 1930 Elections, which inaugurated the first People's Assembly and saw Palmiro Togliatti elected as President of the Republic - who in turn appointed Antonio Gramsci to serve as Chairman of the Council of Ministers. The alliance between Socialist and Anarchist organizations which the Communist Party represented had been a fraught and often contentious affair from the beginning, and by the time the Civil War had come to an end the two main wings of the party were in constant conflict with each other on key issues like the centralization of the state, the involvement of the state in public and private affairs and whether to further the cause of the world revolution by violent or peaceful means. While a variety of incidents consistently served to enflame the relationship between the two factions of the Communist Party, it would be the discovery of Anarchist training camps in early 1929 and the concurrent spilling over of hostilities in the Special Committee of the Constituent Assembly which ultimately saw the first fracturing of the Communist Party when Malatesta and his supporters departed the party to form the Anarchist Unity Front in order to contest the 1930 Elections. While the Communist Party emerged in a super dominant position in the People's Assembly, the departure of the Anarchists from the party had only served to highlight the many significant differences within the Socialist wing of the party. While Gramsci, Togliatti and Giacinto Serrati possessed a majority following within the party - known as The New Order Clique, there were other significant power blocs which expressed their dissatisfaction with the status quo within the party. An initially powerful faction compromised those Socialists of a more traditionally Marxist bent, who found Gramsci's denigration of Historical Materialism and the deterministic nature of revolutionary development heretical and wished to ensure that the Italian Republic adopt a truly orthodox socialist approach to government. Led initially by the influential Filippo Turati and Anna Kulishchov, this faction would see its major proponents die during the first decade of Socialist independence - Kulishchov in 1925 and Turati in 1932 - and the foundations of their arguments gradually disproven by the successive revolutionary governments which emerged around the world in contradiction to the traditional path laid out in Marxism. Significantly more challenging in the long term would prove to be Ivanoe Bonomi and Arturo Labriola's Italian Reformist Socialist Party which had emerged during the Great War, fallen out of favor during the Civil War and early Reconstruction Era, and now came booming back to prominence on a platform of German-inspired Social Democracy and moderate irredentism - calling for efforts to be undertaken to restart the Risorgimento with a focus on Monarchist Italy and the aim of bringing freedom and equality to all Italian peoples. Bonomi and his supporters, who had been only reluctant supporters of the Reds during the Civil War, found themselves popular amongst disenchanted traditional Marxists departing the Communist Party following Turati's death, unwilling to join the other prominent factions of the party. Thus, with the Traditionalists waning and the New Order ascendant within the party, it would take an alliance between the highly-esteemed authoritarian socialist Amadeo Bordiga - a long-time rival of Gramsci's - and the prominent national socialist Nicola Bombacci to form a counterforce to the leading faction. Termed the Vanguard Bloc of the Communist Party, Bordiga and Bombacci advocated a much stronger central government, drawing inspiration from both the Trotskyite and German National Socialist movement. Calling for major government programmes, a strong military, commitment to the spreading of revolutionary zeal internationally and the subordination of the people to the interests of the communal state, the Vanguard Bloc would prove a powerful but troubling force in Italian politics as they pushed the rest of the Communist Party to action - if for no other reason than to avoid opening themselves up to critiques by Vanguard politicians (19). The newly appointed government of Antonio Gramsci was to include not only members of the New Order Clique, but also prominent Vanguard figures like Amadeo Bordiga and Angelo Tasca, Traditionalists like Giacomo Matteotti and even succeeded in drawing Don Luigi Sturzo to serve as Minister of Religious Affairs. Of these appointments some of the most significant would prove to be Gramsci taking upon himself the post as Minister of Culture and Education, Umberto Terracini as Minister of Justice, Amadeo Bordiga as Minister of Economic Development, Angelo Tasca as Minister of Foreign Affairs and, in a move widely questioned for its potential constitutional illegitimacy, President Palmiro Togliatti as Minister of Armed Affairs - an appointment which in effect gave Togliatti total control of all defense and military affairs, already serving as Commander-in-Chief due to his position as President. This final, deeply controversial, appointment came in response to a push by the Vanguardists to have Nicola Bombacci appointed to the position - the New Order Clique leadership fearing that the incredibly tenuous military situation the People's Republic of Italy found itself in would be mismanaged by someone as militantly inclined as Bombacci. No one could question Togliatti's military knowledge or capabilities, and while there were significant protests by the Anarchists and to a lesser degree other opposition parties warning of Bonapartist tendencies they were unable to dislodge the President from his secondary position. It was not without reason that the New Order Clique secured the Ministries of Justice, Culture and Education and Military Affairs for themselves, for with those in their control they not only held a firm grip on all legitimate means of violence but also everything they would need to build a new cultural hegemony. To this purpose, Umberto Terracini soon began work on a comprehensive reworking of the old law codes to take into account the new context, with a new Civil Code and Penal Code gradually formulated over the following half decade, incorporating Roman Law modified and modernized extensively with elements of the Napoleonic Civil Code and the German Civil Law Book alongside a wholly new layer of modifications to emphasize the revolutionary nature of the state (20).

    The single greatest challenge facing the Communist state when it emerged from the civil war was the question of Reconstruction. Preceded by the Great War, years-long occupations by French, German and Austrian forces and the bloody and destructive Civil War, conflict had left the Italian Peninsula in devastation. While the locus of Italian Industry, centering on a triangle running between Genoa-Turn-Milan, had largely avoided the fiercest of the fighting, internal supply chains and economic order had been completely and totally upended across the region with businesses gone bankrupt on an unprecedented scale and unemployment incredibly widespread. Nevertheless, this was nothing compared to the utter desolation experienced by the cities of the north-east, with Bologna, Padua, Ferrara and Venice all hammered by repeated conflicts and occupations - the Venetian Lagoon left a graveyard for the ships of the Black Fleet. While the fighting further south had been more spread out, and the damage as such not quite as concentrated or grave, the pre-existing immense economic disparities between the urban north and neglected rural South, where what amounted to a medieval feudal economy had still been running up till the last days of the Civil War, meant that there existed an entire additional layer of economic troubles which would need to be addressed by the new government. Work on reconstruction had begun even before the end of the Civil War, with the Communist Central Committee taking charge of the effort. Influenced by their Anarchist elements, the party had initially proven supportive of handing over ownership and control of the various factories of northern Italy to workers' committees and cooperatives, however the mismanagement of these efforts soon saw the leading members of the Central Committee change their attitudes against such an approach, instead shifting to a more mixed-model in which the workers would collectively hold a minority stake in their factories while the government took ownership of the factories themselves. As businesses and financial institutions went bankrupt en masse during the early years of the Civil War, the government was thus able to amass an extraordinarily large portfolio of banks, businesses and corporations on an ad hoc basis, primarily using this control to strengthen their military-industrial complex in a bid to win the Civil War with considerable success - as occurred at the Battle of Piacenza and to an even greater degree with the Conquest of Liguria and the Roman Campaign. As to the physical rebuilding of many of the shattered cities of north-western Italy, the government turned to the self-styled Gruppo 7, a collection of young and ambitious architects who broke with the ornate Stile Liberty of architecture which had flourished during the first decades of the century in favor of a blend of Rationalist, Futurist and Modernist principles which saw the abandonment of traditional baroque styles of ornamented architecture in favor of clean minimalist lines, sweeping curves and sharp angles which gave a sense of sleek vigor to the Populist Movement of Architecture, as it would come to be known. Communist Italy emerged at the end of the Civil War with no major international trading partners, a currency completely shattered by out-of-control inflation, an economy which could at best be considered on life-support and utter chaos in the state bureaucracy as anyone who might be considered a revolutionary enemy and could make their escape to Sicily, France or the Americas did so - resulting in the flight of most of the country's nobility and business elite. The effect was to leave the communists with what amounted to an almost entirely blank slate on which to rebuild their country - a task which they swiftly set about accomplishing. The first step was to re-establish a functioning currency and the establishment of a national bank to mint it - an effort which led to the formation of the People's Bank of Italy on the 18th of September 1925 from a merger of all public and private banks in Italy, the majority of them having already been taken over by the government prior to this announcement, to serve as the sole banking institution in Italy under the chairmanship of the close Bordiga ally Paolo Ravazzoli. Next came the abandonment of the Lira and the adoption of the Soldi in its place - the Communists feeling it important to break continuity with the former regime in financial matters as much as social and economic, in mid-1927. The use of confiscations, proscriptions and expropriations had seen wide use by the revolutionary regime from its earliest days, and over the course of the 1920s these efforts took on an ever more feverish pace, particularly once what remained of the lesser nobility in the South began to resist the increasingly harsh spotlight of government focus on the region. By early 1929 the situation had gotten to a point where nearly 90% of all property was in government hands to at least some extent, resulting in significant and growing pushback from the Constituent Assembly and its various parties. It is worth noting that while this period had seen significant effective redistribution of the land from rich property owners to their poor tenants, actual ownership of much of the rural countryside had been kept in government hands due to uncertainty about how exactly to ensure equitable land reforms - an issue which had generated considerable tensions and infighting with particularly the Anarchists who saw the massive growth of government property as fundamentally out of line with their own beliefs. Ultimately, it would take until the adoption of the new constitution and the resultant 1930 elections for real efforts to address these issues to come under way. A final key development of the 1924-1930 era was the rapid and ever-deepening economic and political relationship with Germany which at once helped create an outlet for Italy's economic resurgence while leaving them increasingly dependent upon the good will of the German government. An energy-poor country, Italy had been dependent upon British shipments of coal to power their industrial development since the start of their industrialization, and as such the British decision to back the Kingdom in Sicily was to present an immediate and significant challenge to Red Italy which they were only able to resolve by turning to Germany and the Zollverein, negotiating a series of important trade agreements with the economic bloc which they hoped would help resolve the issue. However, the vast infrastructure network needed to accomplish the transport of sufficient coal to fuel the starved Italian industrial complex would need to be built across the Italo-German border before such they would be able to enjoy the complete fruits of this agreement, requiring an intensive and often dangerously reckless development of infrastructure in the Veneto with the aim of tying north-western Italy's rail network together with the major economic hub at Trieste - an effort which saw its initial fruits accomplished in 1926, but which only really began to meet the needs of the Italian state by 1931 (21).

    The ascension of the Gramsci Government of 1930 was to prove a sea change in the economic development of Italy as the ad hoc and temporary constructions which had characterized the 1920s were replaced by permanent organizational structures. At the heart of this reorganization would sit three massive public economic entities - the Institute for Industrial Reconstruction, the Institute for Agricultural Renewal and the Institute for Societal Development, widely known by their acronyms of IRI, IRA and ISS, the first two coming under the Ministry of Economic Development and the final one under the Ministry of Culture and Education. The Three Institutes, as they were collectively known, would come to serve as a lightning rod for both praise and hostility as they helped resolve age-old challenges which had stumped successive Italian governments while drawing fierce critique for their authoritarian and statist overtones. These protests were made most forcefully by the Anarchist Union, an entity which emerged from the political infighting of the Anarchists following Malatesta's death in 1932 between Camillo Berneri and Luigi Fabbri - which had seen the Unity Front dissolved in favor of Berneri's Union and a rival Anarchist Federation under Fabbri. The Institute for Agricultural Renewal would take over the immense task of land reforms, food-related industries and the management of major rural projects, in the process coming to play an incredibly important role across much of the South. Abandoning the model of wholesale government ownership of rural lands, the IRA would prove integral to winning over the rural farming population across Italy, but particularly in the South, signaling the beginning of shifting attitudes in the South towards the government. In effect the IRA would turn over the vast tracts of land held for centuries, if not millennia, by the petty nobility and church across the south, to a suddenly emergent small-holder class of farmers, many of whom would join into larger government-supported agricultural cooperatives, which would prove essential to improving agricultural productivity and quality of life in rural Italy. Despite these land reforms, the IRA would maintain control over significant agricultural lands which were put to use for larger scale agricultural production - the Italian Republic becoming a primary provider of citrus fruits, tomatoes, olives and other Mediterranean cash crops to the entirety of the Zollverein, although ownership of the processing, packaging, marketing and retail operations would fall under the remit of the IRI. The second part of the IRA's remit put it in charge of managing a series of incredibly ambitious rural public works and infrastructure construction projects ranging from roads, bridges, hydroelectric and irrigation projects to major land-reclamation projects in the Pontine Marshes and the Venetian Lagoon. The earliest and most ambitious of these projects would be the draining and agricultural development of the Pontine Marshes. Both a land reclamation project and an anti-malarial effort, the idea had been around since the late 19th century to do something about the marshes but it would take until the 1920s for the technology necessary to resolve the issue to mature. Marshes resulting from water flowing down from the surrounding hills and the Apennines into a depression below sea level, the region would require a dense network of electrified drainage canals to keep the area dry and arable as water was lifted, pumped into canals and eventually discharged into the sea on a daily basis, around the clock, all year round. Initial efforts to accomplish the job by the Royal government had floundered in the face of a powerful, landowner-led, agrarian lobby which had since been swept away by the Civil War, bringing the land almost entirely under government ownership. The work of nearly a decade by almost 100,000 workers, largely former refugees of leftist convictions from Sicily and Sardinia, the final completion of the project in 1936 would see the former refugees settled down alongside the rather peeved original population, who had seen their way of life fundamentally and forcefully reshaped - but with time the expanded agricultural lands and massively improved irrigation systems would help to significantly improve the productivity of the lands. In an effort to preserve some of the wildlands, a section of the southern marshes were preserved as part of a National Park, although the reclamation efforts would result in considerable ecological damage and malaria remained a constant challenge. A number of new towns and cities emerged in the massive lands now opened up, many of them named for a variety of revolutionary heroes and martyrs, and the region was soon championed as a demonstration of the immense willpower and capacity for change which the young new government possessed. Additional land reclamation work would be undertaken in the lower Po Valley and Veneto, where many of the previous regional efforts had been left damaged by the war, while incredible efforts were undertaken to remove the sunken ships of the Black Fleet from the Venetian Lagoon - a project only completed in 1933 (22).

    Where the Institute of Agricultural Renewal focused on rural and agricultural projects, the Institute for Industrial Reconstruction fulfilled a similar role for urban and industrial work. Inheriting the massive industrial possessions collected by the government during the 1920s, the IRI was to prove integral to the economic development of the People's Republic, owning and commanding control over almost every factory, workshop and piece of industrial infrastructure in Italy. As has been previously highlighted, the practice of granting complete or controlling interest over the work place to the employees fell out of practice with the departure of the Anarchists from the Communist Party, instead seeing the adoption of a primarily government-owned approach in which the employees were collectively granted a significant minority share in their respective subsidiary or department. As part of its efforts to tie Southern Italy into the wider Italian economy, the IRI under Bordiga engaged in a massive infrastructure and industrialization campaign on a scale rarely before seen. Cities in the south became the focus of considerable industrial development with Taranto, for example, becoming the site of one of the biggest steel plants in Europe and seeing a massive expansion of its port, with the population of the city more than doubling in the decade that followed, while in Naples major food processing plants and construction subsidiaries were developed - which would play a key role in building much of the infrastructure across the south. Notably, the Neapolitan Naval Port would see a significant deprioritization in favor of Taranto and to a lesser extent Bari due to how exposed it was on the western coastline. Despite being cut off from most of the world economy, the Italians invested heavily in their steel production to meet the needs of both their military development and their economic reconstruction - it being necessary for the vast majority of their infrastructure projects. However, while the country seemed to have an insatiable hunger for steel during the 1920s and 1930s, there were many who wondered what would happen should supply ever surmount demand internally - Germany and the wider Zollverein maintaining considerable tariff barriers on steel to protect their own industries. As a result of this heavy investment in the south, the Communists - particularly the Vanguard Bloc - were able to build a considerable following in the region both amongst the cities and rural peasantry, with only the mid-sized towns who failed to secure benefits from either the massive agricultural or urban investments left grumbling. There was one province which caused more than expected trouble compared to the rest of the South, namely the province of Calabria. A hotbed of criminality and smuggling as a result of a porous separation from Sicily and an underdeveloped infrastructure, efforts at tackling Calabrian criminality, insularity and hostility towards the government would repeatedly flounder in the face of these factors - eventually resulting in a gradual retreat by the government from investment in the province. While the nobility and papal clergy had been largely driven from the south, many of these social structures would find themselves repeated as clientelism and patronage suffused the countless IRI and IRA interventions of the south. Dominated by Vanguard Bloc figures who utilized their control of the economic reconstruction of the south to develop massive patronage networks, and in the process entrenched political support from the south for Vanguardist Communists, the IRI and IRA were to bring with them an at times astonishing degree of corruption, with discontent over the misuse of public funds and resources in the IRI and IRA growing into one of the strongest cudgels wielded by the Communists' opponents in the People's Assembly (23). This left the final of the Three Institutes - the Institute for Social Development, as the bulwark of New Order Communism in Italy. Operating under the auspices of the Ministry of Culture and Education, the ISS was to serve as the heart of Gramsci's ambitious development of a new Hegemony. Holding ownership of essentially all buildings of social or cultural relevance, the ISS enjoyed command over the vast majority of the confiscated noble and church properties as well as command over the vast majority of broadcast, news and entertainment media. It operated an immense number of museums, galleries and theaters while leasing a variety of church properties to the Revolutionary Catholic Church. In fact, it would prove to be the RCC which served as one of the most effective forces in the building of a new proletarian cultural hegemony, as priests and preachers across the country exhorted their flocks to be mindful of their fellow man, to share each others' burdens and to lean upon the institutions of church and state when in doubt - with RCC preachers often holding masses for factory workers at their places of work as they worked to spread the word of god. Youth organizations were widely sponsored and often saw some level of ISS and RCC cooperation with local and national organizations to help educate the youth in their roles as members of the People's Republic. Charities and other civil society actors would find a useful, if often overbearing and interfering, partner in the ISS which allowed them significantly further reach and impact, as they were able to lease the use of ISS properties for soup kitchens, supplementary educations, homeless shelters and community centers. A key part of resolving the Southern Question would prove to be the spread of educational opportunities amongst particularly the rural poor, a mission which would see the Ministry of Culture and Education embark on an ambitious school building campaign across the region, with every village gaining a school. Education on the whole was nationalized, with the numerous large and well-established universities of Italy tied together in a national network under the direction of the Ministry, with acceptance criteria streamlined, education made tuition free and curricula put under curation by a National Board of University Education. A particular emphasis of the Gramsci Ministry would be his belief and emphasis on the idea that everyone has the capacity for intellectual pursuits, and as such the ministry placed a strong emphasis on adult education for workers, peasants and the general public - an effort put into practice by the widespread adoption of night schooling, post-schooling education and a vast variety of social clubs, particularly reading clubs, which hoped to awaken the hegemonic values that the New Order Clique were striving to foster. In general, it is worth noting that Gramsci placed a heavy emphasis on the building and development of civil society as part of the political community and rather disliked the hegemonic position possessed by the ISS. In his view the ISS was a temporary construct which would help shore up and protect Italian civil society as it developed, before the ISS would gradually weaken its grip and eventually disappear as civil society grew more mature. However, despite Gramsci's hopes, the ISS would play a similar role for the New Order as the IRI and IRA did for the Vanguardists, becoming a core segment of their political client base and the center of extensive patronage networks which helped shore up their support in the People's Assembly. With control over the vast majority of the press and media, the New Order were able to command an impressive propaganda network which more than made up for the power the Vanguardists had gained in the south. It is worth noting that the ISS secured control of several important industries over the IRI, with the ISS controlling the clothing, cosmetics, film, radio and, in time, electronics industries - giving them an exceptionally powerful base of support in Milan, Rome and Tuscany where these industries were strongest. A key element consistently supported and promoted by the Ministry of Culture and Education was the Women's Liberation movement, with women such as Sibilla Aleramo, Giovanna Berneri and Lina Poletti all gaining prominent positions in either the ministry or ISS. As a result, as the years passed a new cultural Hegemony slowly began to emerge under the careful shepherding of Gramsci and the New Order Clique (24).

    While the economic reconstruction and political development of the nascent People's Republic were undoubtedly important for the future course of its millions of inhabitants, none of it would have been possible without significant and extensive military and foreign policy efforts undertaken by the initial provisional government and subsequently the Gramsci government. At the heart of the matter lay the political realities put in place by the Civil War, namely the Franco-British and subsequently Latin Pact backing for the Kingdom of Italy in Sardinia and Sicily, and the resultant total reliance of Red Italy upon Germany's sufferance. This dependence upon German support had first seen the handover of the perpetrators of the Schönbrunn Raid and a subsequent series of trade negotiations which had forced the Reds into alignment with German wishes. Gone were the days of proud Italian irredentism, replaced by a fearful vigilance towards their incredibly vulnerable western coastline and a turn towards firmly defensive military doctrine. This vulnerability to naval assault up and down the western coast left the La Spezia Naval Base and the naval facilities of Naples far too exposed to attack from hostile naval forces, forcing the Taranto Naval Base and subsidiary bases in the Adriatic to pick up the slack. While La Spezia would find its port given over almost exclusively to submarine forces and the building of large naval batteries to stand off most raiding forces, the Gulf of Taranto became one of the most heavily fortified regions of the world while the Port of Taranto itself was expanded on a massive scale as new shipyards were laid down and the port's naval complement expanded rapidly. This focus on Taranto could largely be explained by the geography of the gulf of Taranto, which allowed for a devastating cross-fire by coastal batteries at the mouth of the gulf against any attacking force, making it almost impenetrable to assault, and as such a safe haven from which the Italian People's Navy could extend its hand into the Mediterranean. While Calabria was largely viewed as already lost in any potential Sicilian invasion, defensive lines were constructed along the Calabrian-Basilicatan border region to serve as the main line of defense against a force coming out of Sicily. Bari and Venice saw considerable investments as well, growing to serve as the third and second largest naval bases of the IPN respectively. There was thus little choice to be made regarding Republican Italy's naval doctrine - it could only rely on a constant and proactive Guerre de Course in which trade and transport through the Mediterranean was put under intense pressure by submarines, torpedo boats, destroyers, light cruisers and other light sea crafts while the bulk of the work was done by naval air power. In any major conflict the navy would have to fight and die hard in an effort to contest naval landings and disrupt naval supply lines long enough for the Army to emerge victorious. With naval investments so exposed to attack, the People's Republic found their solution to the issue by investing heavily in aviation, centered particularly on the cities of Turin and Parma, initial industrial development efforts near Naples floundering in the face of government worries over its exposed position. Relying particularly heavily on the infrastructure and industry built up by FIAT prior to and during the Great War, the heavy emphasis on developing an air force capable of challenging any invading force by sea or land resulted in an emphasis on short-range, well-armed and armored airplanes of a markedly defensive nature, the government viewing its position as so exposed that offensive action would spell doom for Republican Italy. The Italian Aeronautics industry was to serve as one of the premier industries developed under the early People's Republic, being amongst the earliest to field a functional single-wing aircraft and to master the drop mechanism for torpedo bombings - although the quality of Italian torpedoes would remain questionable at best until late in the 1930s when contacts with Red Japan introduced a series of new and exciting ideas to the Republican Navy Staff. However, while the Republican military government hoped to wield a raiding-oriented navy and hyper-modern air force to make life difficult for any invader, it was the Republican Red Army which they pictured in all scenarios as the decisive branch of the military, which would determine victory or defeat for the People's Republic. While the Civil War had been a devastating experience for the country, damaging a large part of the industrial strength of the country and breaking apart any sense of military tradition, it had also allowed for the development of one of the most meritocratic, disciplined and highly motivated armies in the world. Under the careful stewardship of President Togliatti, both before and after his rise to President, the Red Army had been allowed to develop a new esprit de corps. Military doctrine called for a focus on defensive action marked by rapid and constant counter-attacks and a heavy emphasis on fortifications which would see much of the country dotted by varying levels of complex fortifications - major coastal cities like Naples, Taranto, Genoa, Venice and Bari seeing major fortification works alongside a series of lines from south to north beginning with the Calabria-Basilicata Line and followed by the Salerno Line - stretching north-eastward to shield Naples from the south, the Rome-Pescara Lines which exploited the largely mountainous region of central Italy to the greatest extent possible, the Toscana Line north of Florence and finally the Parma-Mantua line which shielded Lombardy from the south and east. While only the Calabria-Basilicata Line and Salerno Line saw any meaningful work done during the latter half of the 1920s and early 1930s, there was a second region - namely the Piedmont - where heavy investments in fortifications occurred as well. Nevertheless, Red Italy's survival would remain tied to the good will of the Germans, who could at any time cut off the incredibly important coal shipments from the north and starve Italy of energy in bare months, and as such the Republican government saw it necessary to invest heavily in diplomatic efforts. While the German relationship was front and center in these efforts, diplomatic contacts in the Americas, particularly the southern triangle of Chile, Argentina and Brazil, would also serve the Italians in good place. The rejection of Italian emissaries early in the 1930s by the Soviet government in Russia would cause considerable harm to the relationship between the two countries, but as the two foremost Communist powers in the world prior to the rise of Red Japan, continued efforts at normalizing relations would proceed following the Trotsky Affair in Russia. By 1937-38 these entreaties would result in a considerable warming of relations, as the ideological strictures enforced in the Third International were weakened to allow for the entry of both the Empire of Japan and the People's Republic of Italy to the International (25).

    Footnotes:
    (18) I am working partially off of the 1948 Constitution of Italy, given that it was in part written by Italian Communists and Christian Democrats, and adapting to the TTL situation. The decision to go with a unicameral structure and the tripartite executive branch are my own adaptations to the different times. It is worth noting the way in which the Italian Constitution enshrines the state's role as a leader in the world revolution, the adoption of Milan as capital and the fact that there is a quite significant disconnect between the legislature and executive branch - particularly the fact that there isn't a Prime Minister established on the basis of backing in the legislature at the head of the cabinet, but rather an appointed Chairman. I should also note that the executive branch, despite its divisions - or perhaps because of them, has actually been left exceedingly powerful, with executive orders being able to accomplish a great deal. For all its grandeur, the People's Assembly will prove the distinctly lesser branch of government in this case. Also worth noting the shift from Republic of Italy to Italian People's Republic - the change in emphasis is a very deliberate change on the part of the Constituent Assembly to denote that they define their state on the basis of its people rather than its geographical area.

    (19) So just to make sure everyone has a clear idea of what the political spectrum looks like from Right-to-Left you have: The People's Party, the Republican Party, the Italian Reformist Socialist Party, the Communist Party (New Order and Vanguard) and the Anarchist Unity Front. It is worth noting the lack of the Radical Party, which would otherwise have been a decent fit within the left-wing spectrum of parties had it not been for them joining their leader Francesco Saverio Nitti as the party furthest to the left in Sicily, and the Italian Social Democratic Party which here is merged with Bonomi's Italian Reformist Socialist Party. I should also mention that there remains a small number of Traditionalists within the Communist Party under the leadership of Giacomo Matteotti, a close follower of Filippo Turati who was murdered IOTL by Fascists.

    (20) It is worth noting that the New Order Clique and Vanguard Bloc need each other if they are to maintain control of the People's Republic, which is the primary reason they are willing to compromise with one another and cooperate despite their rather significant differences on a whole host of issues. I would like to reiterate how important particularly Bordiga's appointment as Minister of Economic Development is going to be, since it in practice gives charge of the entire economic reconstruction project to a man whose fondest hope is to create a massive state complex which can direct the development of the People's Republic. In effect his massive Ministry covers the roles traditionally held by Ministries of Labor, Industry, Agriculture and Commerce. Finally, the new Law Codes are based on similar efforts undertaken by the Fascists IOTL, who passed a Penal Code in 1930 and a Civil Code in 1942, but with the added wrinkle that they are adding an entire extra new element aimed at representing the popular nature of their republic to the law code. This takes its expression in the removal of a lot of the language providing special protections to the nobility and church, modernizing the code and removing or redrafting outdated elements. The inclusion of elements of German Law are a helpful indication of the fact that the Italian Republic is heavily reliant on German support and that they are trying to make their accommodations to align the law code to more easily manage that relationship.

    (21) This section aims to outline the considerable efforts, warts and all, of the Italian economic reconstruction during the 1920s - setting the stage for the actions of the Gramsci government in the 1930s. While the circumstances weren't particularly pleasant IOTL during this period, it is completely dwarfed by the scale of devastation which has occurred IOTL. While this is a negative development by and large, there are benefits to it, the most significant of which is the clearing away of the most significant obstacles to addressing the problems of Southern Italy, which had seen efforts at development stymied by corruption and local resistance. Particularly the loss of British energy imports puts an immense level of pressure on the Italian state and economy which, as mentioned, only begins to find real address by the end of the decade. In the following section we will see how a more legitimate government with a constitutional mandate sets about organizing all of the disparate elements which have been outlined here.

    (22) The Institute of Industrial Reconstruction is an OTL construct brought into existence by Fascist government to resolve the economic turmoil of the Great Depression, rescuing and restructuring private banks and companies which went bankrupt and later played a key role in developing Italian industry, growing into one of the largest economic entities in the entire country over time. Here, the leftist government establish similar institutions to manage their agricultural and socio-cultural possessions as well - the IRA and ISS are institutions of my own imagining. That said, the Pontine Marsh reclamation was conducted by the Fascists IOTL as well, although with significantly less success given that the work was undertaken by untrained urbanite Venetians IOTL whereas here we have Sicilian and Sardinian peasants doing the majority of the work. The land redistribution is a TTL construct, but the cash crop development and rural infrastructure development are largely inspired by work done by the Cassa del Mezzorgiorno - the Fund for the South, although it is occurring several decades earlier than IOTL.

    (23) I should note that a lot of the developments outlined in these sections stretch across decades, so while there is a lot packed in together - and the economic development is considerable - it isn't quite as incredible as it might look at first glance. Some of these developments are based on later OTL moves, particularly inspired by leadup to the Italian Economic Miracle of the late 50s and early 60s, but there are some important shifts present such as the gradual deprioritization of Naples as a military port, with Taranto really becoming a massive industrial hub and primary port in the south. I should emphasize that in many cities government employment either by one of the Three Institutes or the web of government bureaucracies is nearly at 100%. In the south in particular, which enjoys the greatest fruits of the Institutes' labors, this also becomes an engine for clientelism, nepotism, corruption and patronage - with the Vanguard Bloc really coming to dominate the region as a political force, particularly in the southern cities.

    (24) The ISS is really a central institution, serving as a platform for the changing of the cultural hegemony and a holding company for all the various cultural treasures inherited from the Kingdom after the Civil War. Much as with the IRI for the Vanguardists, the ISS becomes a bastion of New Order interests, primarily focused in the North, and proves a controversial organization as a result. Gramsci, despite heading the ministry which oversees the ISS, is not particularly pleased with the organization and hopes that it can be gotten rid of when civil society has found its legs. This is based on Gramsci's OTL dislike for a powerful state and focus on socio-cultural development. The RCC is a non-governmental organization supported by the government, but not officially a national church.

    (25) So to summarize, the Italians are firmly on the defensive in their strategic doctrines, viewing their position as exceedingly uncertain in any major conflict. As a result they have invested significantly in defensive fortifications, aviation and built up a powerful and disciplined army - the navy largely there to serve as raiding force against any invader. One thing I have not gotten into here is the training of frogmen soldiers, who are trained to serve as naval special forces, but Italy is one of the frontrunners in that regard as they were IOTL. Nevertheless, I cannot reiterate often enough how utterly reliant Red Italy is on the good will of Germany - any conflict between the two would end very quickly without external aid for the Italians due to the energy scarcity.

    End Note:

    This entire section has relied very, very heavily on research and commentary made by @Ombra. He was kind enough to go through and point out the various issues which needed to be addressed, digging into detail on particularly the ideological framework developed by Gramsci, the entire political spectrum outlined in this update, the defensive situation the Reds find themselves in, the Southern Question and a whole host of other elements.

    I found it a really fascinating challenge to work through and imagine what the reconstruction of Red Italy would look like over the course of more than a decade.

    I really hope that people find all of this interesting and are starting to have a proper mental image of what Red Italy actually looks like, what sorts of structures and institutions define their days, and the way in which the political, economic and social life of Red Italy functions.

    I am going to leave off here because I honestly feel that this should be a big enough update, given how much ground is covered here. Up next Sunday, we have a rather similar section detailing the developments of Soviet Russia in the aftermath of Trotsky's fall from grace. I hope you look forward to that, and that you enjoyed this update.
     
    Update Thirty-Six (Pt. 4): Calamity Entailed
  • Calamity Entailed

    Moscow_metro_construction.jpg

    The Construction of the Moscow Metro

    The Soviet Dream​

    Trotsky's fall from grace and the collapse of the Trotskyite faction in Soviet Russia were to prove a major turning point in Russian history, bringing to a close the Foundational Era of the Soviet state which had begun with the February Revolution of 1917 and inaugurated a new period of Russian History. A major development of the latter half of the Foundational Era had been a massive expansion of the Communist Party organization into all parts of society, with membership having grown from a bare 200,000 in 1918 to nearly four million by the time of the Trotskyite Affair, as all factions within the party sought to expand their backing within the party. With the Trotskyites now hung out to dry, worries about the party having been infiltrated by not only those Trotskyites but also various other anti-revolutionary elements led to growing calls for order to be restored to the party and clarity about what exactly it meant to be a member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Republic of Russia. As a clear cut attack on everyone outside the Governing Clique, the effort drew considerable critique from various party organs, newspapers and media where it was characterized as an assault upon the democratic and inclusive principles of the Communist Party - an attempt at suppressing any critique or challenge to the Governing Clique. However, in a display of their increasingly unquestionable dominance of Soviet Russia, the Governing Clique saw its supporters rise up in a fierce condemnation of these criticisms - questioning the attackers' revolutionary ethos and demanding to know if they held any ties to Trotskyite sympathizers, an accusation that could have been leveled at almost anyone who had held any sort of political stature in the early 1930s given the wide-ranging reach of the Trotskyites during that period. A puritanical fever was coming to grip the party fueled not so much by the highest levels of leadership, but rather by younger, lower-ranked officials from amongst the ranks of the Governing Clique's supporters who hoped to make their names in the effort. Men like Georgy Malenkov, Andrey Andreyevich Andreev, Andrey Zhadanov and Vyacheslav Molotov, who were looking to make the final jump into the ranks of the Central Committee, hoped to exploit this situation for their betterment, and as such became open and fierce denouncers of anyone criticizing the government's actions for any reason - and amongst the staunchest supporters of the proposed party purge. Ultimately, it would be the publishing of "The Five Fundamental Theories and Eight Core Principles of The Communist Party" in April 1935 which was to determine the future of the party. A key doctrinal document drafted by Bukharin with input from the two other core members of the Central Committee - Sverdlov and Sokolnikov, this new document outlined what it meant to be a member of the Communist Party of Soviet Russia. Structured around five basic theories, the document outlined the role and purpose of the party (26a). In effect, the document was a firm rebuke of the puritanical elements of the party by the leadership of the party - it emphasized that the party relied upon and should represent everyone under the wide umbrella of the revolutionary cause. It placed in stone the party's dedication to collective leadership and took a universalist approach to the revolutionary cause - continuing Trotsky's push for a permanent international revolution under a new guise and ostensibly placed all revolutionary actions under one umbrella. It called for the unification of party and state, emphasized the role of every individual in contributing to the revolutionary cause and glorified self-sacrifice and the preparation of future generations for the revolutionary struggle. With a single document, the Troika - as the Sverdlov, Bukharin and Sokolnikov trio were increasingly called informally, had ended all talk of a more exclusive party in which the Governing Clique ruled as sovereign. The Five Theories and Eight Principles would be followed by a series of reforms and reorganizational efforts which provided structure and organization to politics within the party, with a general formalization of the many informal arrangements which had previously governed Russian bureaucratic and administrative bodies. The bodies of state and party were officially merged and the Communist Party was acknowledged as the sole political party of the Soviet Republic while the Central Committees of the Communist Party and of the Soviet State were formally united. The Central Committee was formally set at fourteen seats with the Chairman's vote deciding any ties, while a series of deputies were established below them to aid in the work of the CC, without voting rights but capable of holding portfolios and in line to succeed to the Central Committee. It was at this point, in early 1936, that a more modest purge of the party rolls was undertaken - mostly aimed at removing what few Trotskyites had avoided notice and those blatantly corrupt or incompetent - and strict guidelines for membership in the party were laid out to better the party standards including a code of conduct and morality which members were expected to adhere to, and the breach of which could become grounds for punishment ranging from censure to expulsion and arrest. However, despite these various initiatives there was one thing which could not be denied in the post-Trotskyite Affair years, namely that should the Troika ever wish to grasp power in its entirety, they would be able to do so without much difficulty. The only figure able to muster anything like the sort of following necessary to pose a challenge to their leadership was the enigmatic Nestor Makhno, who held little interest in matters outside of his remit, and who consistently showed himself happy with the status quo (26).

    An inevitable development of the way in which the Soviet Republic had developed - coming about in an initial scramble which saw a small but powerful group of Socialist leaders come together alongside disparate groups of supporters, was the emergence of a vast and complicated web of cliques, factions and patronage networks throughout the Soviet bureaucracy stretching from the very top all the way down to village appointments at the local level. These networks had repeatedly played into the political development of the Soviet Republic and had been at the heart of various internal conflicts from its earliest days to its latest, most dramatic and undoubtedly most dangerous instance erupting during the Trotskyite Affair. As a result, when the Five Theories and Eight Principles were outlined in 1935, Sverdlov decided to use the opportunity to restore order to the chaos which had increasingly come to grip the party and state organizations. At the heart of the issue lay the State Planning Committee, ostensibly chaired by Bukharin, but in effect a bitter battleground for rival factions to challenge each other for control of various bureaucratic institutions. Never a particularly bureaucratically minded man, Bukharin had increasingly proven himself unsuited to managing the organizational elements of this work. Thus, when an opportunity created by the unification of state and party organs emerged to resolve the crisis which was emerging within the Committee, he was swift to sign on to Sverdlov's plan. The solution to this problem was to prove the small, vestigial Organizational Bureau of the Communist Party which had been set up during the height of the Civil War to aid in the management of party assets, but had since been left to wither - its power and authority largely subsumed by the State Planning Committee in the post-war years. As such the Orgburo, as this small organ was known, had been left entirely under the command of the Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, Sverdlov, and when the Party-State emerged it was perfectly positioned to siphon away many of the powers previously enjoyed by the State Planning Committee. Taking over the duties of assigning the roles and duties of all state and party organs, as well as the right of appointment to all major positions in non-council organs, the Orgburo went from being a small secretariat supporting Sverdlov in the daily management of party affairs to the single most important institution in the Soviet Republic overnight. To staff the Orgburo, Sverdlov initially recruited its members personally from amongst the most talented administrators in the state and party structures - who were usually already part of his own extended patronage network, but later set up a special track for gifted young administrators to enter the bureau before they went on to high postings elsewhere in the bureaucracy. Sverdlov would prove violently protective of the Orgburo, turning the GPU and later GKU to hunting down anyone who sought to intervene in the affairs of the bureau, and worked continually to keep the Bureau free of external influence. In time, the Orgburo would become the premier training ground for Soviet administrators and bureaucrats, providing commissars, department heads and central committee deputies by the dozen, forming an elite within the elite of the Communist Party. The State Planning Committee would be disbanded by the end of 1937, while Bukharin headed the new Political Bureau which was established to manage the ideological development of the state in the place of the State Planning Committee. This new Politburo would rise to dominate political and ideological development, gradually combining the many and varied appointments of Bukharin into a single major organizational body. This process of consolidation would occur under other CC members as well, with the formation of the Economic Bureau - Ekoburo - under Sokolnikov and the Culture Bureau - Kultburo - under Bogdanov having occurred by mid-1937, although Sverdlov soon began to push back against this trend - halting Ryutin Martemyan's efforts at setting up an Industrial Bureau and Yevgeni Preobrazhensky's hopes of an Information Bureau which would infringe on the mandates of the Kultburo, the Politburo and some of the secondary posts held by Sverdlov himself. Efforts at rationalization and consolidation would continue throughout the latter half of the 1930s with limited success. Annoyed at the continued presence of patronage networks and particularly angered by a series of major corruption cases related to both the Commissariat of Industry and the Commissariat of the Nationalities, Sverdlov deceided to establish the State Control Directorate to address these issues. As a new directorate to compliment the GPU and GBU, the GKU would stand responsible for fighting against corruption and financial crimes, both serving as auditing and law enforcement agency, with a pair of directors - one from the Commissariat for Internal Affairs and the other from the Commissariat for Finance - providing both political reliability and technical expertise to the young directorate. Following its establishment, the Directorate would swiftly engage in a series of ever more impressive anti-corruption campaigns under its Directors Nikolai Kondratiev and Mikhail Pavlovich Schreider, the latter of whom had risen rapidly in Sverdlov's esteem for his conduct during the Trotskyite Affair. The result of all these developments was the strengthening of central power, with particularly Sverdlov growing more active and involved in directing government affairs, and a general professionalization of a state bureaucracy which had largely been occupied by amateurs. As the first generation to grow up under the revolutionary came of age, they found themselves well-armed and prepared to take up positions throughout the restructured state bureaucracy, with more and more positions opening up to young and ambitious new leaders as those elder administrators unsuited to their positions were removed in their favor. As men and women who had been prepared from childhood for life in a revolutionary state, indoctrinated with its values and trained to serve as vanguard to the revolution, entered the work place they brought with them a renewed sense of vigor and purpose - rejuvenating a state which had become increasingly consumed by its internal divisions (27).

    While the social hierarchy of Russia had been upended by the Great War, Revolution and Civil War, social classes remained even if they were more subtle. While the government's economic reforms had allowed for considerable economic gains by significant portions of the urban and rural populace, there remained a layer of society at the bottom consisting of a mixture of criminals, vagrants and outcasts. The countless orphans of the Civil War, who had grown up surrounded by constant chaos, deprivation and death, would struggle to find a place in the new revolutionary society. While some one found homes in the military, serving as guards in the GBU or as unskilled labor, many would prove unable to adjust to the state's expectations of them, and instead engaged in a variety of criminal activities ranging from smuggling and drug dealing to robberies, extortion and racketeering. Efforts by the state and civil society to resolve this problem would see many of these former orphans spend time in the increasingly extensive prison system, providing labor for the various labor camps which had been established around the country. Many of the most fearsome Russian criminal organizations would emerge out of the survivors of this group, ruling over a large and varied criminal underground which was often under pressure from state interests, developing an independent culture from that promoted by the government - rejecting their conformist, self-sacrificial and collectivist ideals in favor of bitter individualism. Above this lowest layer was the first level of accepted society, the collectivized peasants of Yekaterinburg and Siberian farmers who had only recently been freed from White oppression. While lionized for their struggle against nature and their dedication to the revolution, these farmers were usually amongst the poorest in Russia, the former lacking ownership of their own lands while the latter experienced struggle and hardship in the harsh Siberian landscape. Efforts at improving agricultural production to help in resolving the ever-present food crises faced by the Soviet state would see this group experience a gradual growth in prosperity, with particularly the Siberian farmers finding themselves the target of repeated rural development campaigns by Nestor Makhno's Communization Commissariat aimed at developing proper village communes and organizing the Siberian hinterlands according to Muscovite organizational and ideological principles. This layer of society saw an inordinate amount of government control and interference, as collectivized farms were directed by government officials and Siberian farmers were gathered into communes or collectivized farms, and were amongst the most fractious elements of society - requiring repeated interventions by state forces to prevent public unrest. The next layer of society belonged to the average members of the village communes and factory workers who benefitted greatly from the freedoms enshrined by the Ekonburo under Sokolnikov. As the original focus of the Muscovite regime, this segment of society had seen considerable investment and support as they were tied together by interdependent trade patterns and owned shares in their individual factories or village communes. This was both the largest and most positively impacted segment of society by the changes wrought during the revolution. Not only had the village communes gotten rid of their overbearing noble landlords, replaced by an increasingly robust state taxation system and considerable economic freedoms, but the factory workers had also seen the replacement of arrogant factory owners with elected managers and a massive improvement in work conditions, with reduced working hours, improved work safety and an increasingly robust support system. Government programs and organizations relied heavily on this segment of society, recruiting their children into the Communist Youth League, the Komsomol, and the parents into the general membership of the Communist Party. They provided education, healthcare and economic security to this vast and powerful lower middle class, using their immense popularity with this group of people to showcase the immense good fortune of life under Communism to the rest of the world. The level above this key constituency was made up of low-level party officials and the various entrepreneurial business figures who had made their fortunes in Sokolnikov's stage-managed economy. While wealth within this group varied considerably, strict government regulations and tax structures ensured that while they enjoyed a life with more creature comforts than those below them, it was not to an outrageous degree. Additionally, this segment was marked by considerable differences in social status, as the business men found themselves viewed with suspicion by both state and society while the party officials were held up as examples to their neighbors as hard-working revolutionaries dedicated to bettering the lives of those around them - as a result enjoying considerable social prestige. Above the business elite were the scientists, educators, administrators, artists and lower-level bureaucrats of the traditional bourgeoisie whose ideological loyalty would always remain suspect, but whose invaluable role in society allowed them to maintain a decent standard of living and some social prestige and acceptance. A key recruiting ground for the upper levels of the party, this suspect segment of society nevertheless retained immense political power and influence, serving prominent roles in many of the larger and more prestigious bureaus and commissariats, but also proved the target of a constant and concerted propaganda campaigns aimed at ensuring their loyalty to the revolutionary regime. The upper classes of Soviet Society consisted of three ever-shrinking layers, consisting of trade union and civil society leaders and the mid-level of party officials, the upper-level party officials and bureaucrats, and finally the highest level party officials and their families who sat atop the social pyramid. The upper classes enjoyed a life-style unimaginable to those below them, provided as rightful recompense for their dedication to the revolutionary cause - forming a small but immensely important elite which lived together, worked together, intermarried and whose children grew up together. Marriages, affairs and petty intrigues occurred constantly within this group, with scandals over corruption and promiscuousness a constant headache for those hoping to elevate their society as a whole. The relatively spartan life-style of Sverdlov, and his recent crackdown on corruption, was to see the adoption of a relatively frugal lifestyle by many in the elite after a few of the worst offenders amongst the elite were sent to work in labor camps for a decade - but the problems associated with this elite would consistently rear themselves in the years to come. A key component of this new society was its remarkable level of social mobility, as education, economic security and government sponsorship of the less fortunate allowed people to drag themselves up the rungs of society. One notable element which must be noted was the fact that the nationalities and minorities, excluding the Russian Jewish community, which enjoyed an elevated station in the Soviet Republic alongside the Russian majority, often possessed a lowered social status - usually the equivalent of a single rung under their Russian or Jewish comrades - in this societal system despite consistent efforts on the part of the government to resolve these issues (28).

    The Russian Civil War had seen Russia's immense agricultural and mineral wealth compromised by the state's collapse into numerous different states at war with one another. While the Muscovite domains had attempted to keep life in an economy in collapse, developing a network of trade between village communes and urban factories, the period had seen Soviet cities greatly depopulated as former peasants returned en masse to their villages in search of safety in the chaotic economic and political circumstances, often with chaotic and tragic results. However, as the conflict stagnated and the industrial needs of all the Russian factions grew, they had drawn rural workers back into the city by hook and by crook. While this helped alleviate some of the industrial shortfalls which the various factions experienced, it also brought to the fore major resource shortages which would continue to plague the different states after the end of the Civil War. Particularly the loss of Southern Russia and the Ukraine were to play an incredibly important role in the Soviet Republic, as these areas had traditionally served as the breadbasket of Russia - while the loss of Baku and its environs meant a precipitous loss of oil and petroleum resources. In the immediate post-Civil War years, the Muscovite government had sought to resolve the issue through intensive investment in improving agricultural production within its lands, with particularly the more fertile lands south of Moscow, which had been at the center of the fighting for so many years, proving a target for major agricultural development. This effort, spearheaded by Nestor Makhno and Valerian Oboloensky-Osinsky, had included an intensive program of communalization, collectivization and modernization, but despite major increases in productivity, the Muscovites had been forced to rely on imported grain from the Zollverein at considerable cost to make up for its agricultural shortfalls since the early 1920s. The consecutive absorption of Yekaterinburg lands and Siberia in the late 1920s was to prove critical for the further development of the Soviet agricultural economy. The agricultural systems of these two new regions was to prove significantly different from that which had emerged in Muscovite lands, based around village communes and regulated free enterprise with the cities. In Yekaterinburg lands, agriculture had been forcibly collectivized into massive industrial-scale farms run by the state, primarily located along the Volga River atop the bones of the Tartar homelands. While highly productive due to their use of economies of scale, these collectivized government farms amounted to little better than a slave economy - its workers unable to leave, payed in ration stamps and subject to harsh punishments if they failed to meet their quotas - and drew considerable disgust and scorn in Muscovite leadership circles when they were incorporated into the state. While little would change about the state of affairs in the region during Trotsky's rise to power, following his fall from grace the Soviet Government would embark on a concerted effort to improve the situation - sponsoring the development of village communes and private enterprise, providing workers on the collectivized farms with a stake in their farms, removed many of the harsher restrictions placed on the work force and set about introducing many of the freedoms enjoyed by those living in Muscovite lands. Similar efforts were undertaken in the many mine fields of the Ural region, with an ever-present emphasis on collective ownership. With these efforts, the productiveness of the region as a whole would improve considerably as worker morale rose and a market economy began to emerge - if under the rigid control and regulation of the government. One notable factor in the development of Yekaterinburg lands was the wholesale replacement of leading figures in the region as Trotskyites were driven from positions of power and authority en masse, their replacements coming from a mixture of Muscovite-appointees and democratically elected foremen and overseers - often leading figures in the newly legalized and rapidly growing trade unions of the Urals which would come to dominate politics, society and the economy of the region. Where Muscovite lands were a carefully balanced mixture of public and private communal agriculture and Yekaterinburg was dominated by large state-run institutions, Siberia was utterly anarchic. The Siberian White government had struggled to simply hold together their vast and expansive lands while keeping ambitious officers from taking over political power, much less monitor the economic activities of their citizenry, and as a result the region had largely been left to its own devices as long as taxes were paid, conscription demands were met and requisitions accomplished without too much challenge. While foreign investors, particularly Americans, had pumped considerable amounts of money into the economy of Siberia, the majority of these investments had centered around Lake Baikal and the city of Vladivostok, especially the latter, with networks of local merchants travelling into the more deserted regions of Siberia in search of raw resources to sell to these foreign buyers. However, it is worth noting the massive population growth of the region during the Civil War, as millions were driven to flee from their homes in the west, many following the White Armies in Siberia to the Far East where they struggled to build a new life for themselves and their surviving families. These farming and, to a lesser extent, mining communities were largely autonomous and allowed to govern themselves as long as they granted what the government demanded. As a result, while many of these communities failed, there were plenty which survived and prospered in the short years between the end of the Civil War and the Fall of Siberia. Lazar Kaganovich would play an instrumental role in the census-taking and incorporation of these communities into the Soviet Republic's larger state mechanisms - breaking up the remnants of opposition and embarking on an extensive campaign of government confiscations of foreign and aristocratic assets. During this period, Nestor Makhno set about communalizing these recently established towns, villages and communities, but compared to anywhere else in the Soviet Republic control would remain weak and ineffectual. With the Fall of Trotsky, the Commissariats of Agriculture and Communization as well as the Ekonburo would embark on a massive redevelopment plan for the region which saw it tied much more closely to the government. A hunt for natural resources was initiated while local community leaders saw heavy recruitment by the Communist Party and the establishment of a wide variety of public institutions as the socialization of Siberia was undertaken by the Kultburo and Politburo as well. This search for mineral resources, despite ira incredible costs in both human and financial resources, would result in major and important successes with the discovery of the Romashkino Oil Field in former Tartar lands during the reorganization of the region's collectivized farms in 1935, an immense oilfield at Lake Samotlor in Western Siberia in 1936 and a second oil field found nearby in the Surgutsky District. An immensely important collection of coal fields and iron mines, some of which had been discovered under Trotskyite rule, around Chelyabisk would allow for the massive expansion of coal production to meet the rapidly growing industrial needs of the Soviet economy - the city of Chelyabinsk itself growing into one of the foremost industrial centers of Soviet Russia during this time. Siberia's resource extraction sector as a whole would grow exponentially over the following years as countless mineral deposits were discovered throughout Siberia, from the Urals to the Trans-Amur, and the development of the extraction industry in the region continued to expand (29).

    While the lands under Muscovite control during the Civil War were by far the most heavily industrialized in Russia at the time, the bloody and repeated shifts in control over Petrograd, and other Russian cities, as well as the economic, social and political dislocations which resulted had seen a precipitous collapse in Russian industrial production during the first years of the Civil War. However, as the years went on and the scale of the fighting grew, the need for military industrial might resulted in a gradual rejuvenation and later expansion of Russian industrial power in all parts of the fragmented country. With Tula as the pre-war industrial hub for military production at its heart, the Muscovites had worked hard to improve the supply chains and supplementary industries - locating them primarily north of Moscow, Tula being too exposed to attack from the Don Whites during the war. The conquest of Petrograd would result in a major change in the industrial structures of the Muscovite Reds as the single largest industrial city in Russia and the sole major port on the Baltic Coast in Russian possession came under Red rule. While its exposed position led to a gradual shift in industrial resources from Petrograd to around Moscow, with particularly Yaroslavl - a major pre-war industrial hub crippled by White unrest and depopulation during the civil war - experiencing an incredible industrial rejuvenation alongside Nizhny Novgorod and Kazan, forming an industrial belt north of Moscow along the upper Volga River. In Yekaterinburg lands, industrial development had been incredibly swift, with work safety, quality and longevity sacrificed in favor of rapid industrialization to meet the needs of war production. Many of these factories were already beginning to fall apart by the end of the Civil War and it would take until after the Fall of Siberia for industrial development to pick up in the region once more, now with Muscovite involvement, resulting in a slower but more sustainable industrial development which nonetheless would have stumped international observers had they payed much attention to the region. Where the Muscovite domains rapidly diversified away from heavy industry, with light industry spurred on by Sokolnikov's economic reforms, Yekaterinburg had seen an investment almost entirely oriented around its heavy industry, wielding the awesome natural resources available to them in the Urals to fuel a level of heavy industry previously unimagined - this imbalance in time coming to serve as a useful unifying force between Muscovite and Yekaterinburg lands. By contrast Siberian industrial production, centered primarily in the Far East around Vladivostok and built with foreign investments, were primarily in light industries aimed at commercial sales - cheap, white labor having been what attracted initial investment efforts, while Siberian military needs were largely met by foreign aid and support during the Civil War and later by a small, ramshackle military industry buoyed by the import of military goods from primarily Japan and America. The unification of the disparate regions of Soviet Russia was to prove a long and tiresome affair, but by the time of Trotsky's fall from power, Vladivostok had grown into a true industrial powerhouse in the Far East, building upon the considerable industrial efforts undertaken in the city under the Siberian Whites. While the Muscovites had been able to set aside the contradictions inherent in Marxist rule over an agricultural country by coopting elements from other branches of leftist ideology, they nevertheless remained committed to viewing the urban working classes as their key constituencies. As a result, the Communist Party was ever dedicated to the further urbanization and industrialization of Soviet Russia by all means possible. Already during the reign of Nicholas II the Russian domains had been struggling to manage agrarian overpopulation which neither the outflow to the cities or resettlement programs in the Urals had been unable to manage. By the end of the Civil War this problem of rural overpopulation had caused the urban centers of Soviet Russia to swell suddenly and uncontrollably despite a lack of proper employment opportunities. With food shortages a constant worry in the cities and urban unemployment rising steadily alongside the urban population as a whole, the Central Committee had been pushed to search for a solution. A debate over how to resolve the growing crisis soon emerged, with some calling for a forceful planned industrial development plan similar to a more streamlined version of the forceful industrialization undertaken in Yekaterinburg, in which future structural and strategic considerations were put first, while another faction pushed for an emphasis on a natural approach in which economic analysis of existing trends and step-by-step industrialization within related industries were prioritized. A debate of considerable ferocity, the ultimate result would prove to be something of a compromise between the two sides - the majority of government investments seeking to develop synergistically with pre-existing trends while a smaller but still significant part of the budget was set aside for planned industrial development acros Soviet Russia. Over the following decade, starting in 1927, the Soviet government would be responsible for industrial development on a mass scale as cities such as Volgograd, Magnitogorsk, Chelyabinsk, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Yekaterinburg, Ufa, Ulyanovsk, Tula, Saratov, and a dozen others exploded with economic activity and massive industrial projects were undertaken. Particularly agricultural machinery would see intensive investment as part of the natural industrial support - aiming to improve agricultural production - with factories established in half a dozen cities for that purpose. Massive smelteries were established while automobile and rail production was greatly expanded upon as dedicated investment in the state's engineering base was greatly improved by heavy investment in higher-level technical education. Considerable research was undertaken to develop a scientific organization of labor which aimed to both improve the working lives of the laboring classes and improve the productivity of the state, if with mixed results, while the first major cities began to receive their metros - the Moscow Metro being amongst the earliest and most impressive constructions of the Soviet era. The high level of capital investment into heavy industry in particular was to have further beneficial side effects as the expanding money supply put more money into the Soviet system and as a result strengthened demand for consumer goods, which in turn resulted in heavier private investments in consumer goods production. This virtuous spiral of investments in heavy industry triggering improved consumer good demand which in turn caused an increase in production of consumer goods, which brought money back to the state through taxation and tariffs which were once again plowed into the continued economic expansion of the state, would bring an incredible level of economic dynamism to Soviet Russia. While there were plenty of blunders and white elephant investments which failed to make back their investment, there was no way of disputing the awesome industrial expansion undertaken during the late 1920s and 1930s in the Soviet Republic. Thus, by the time the Japanese Civil War came to its end, Soviet Russia stood ready to provide an invaluable trading partner and ally to the People's Shogunate of Japan (30)

    While the Soviet Republic had fought to secure international recognition from the global community with mixed success, most major nations having come to acknowledge them by the early 1930s, the Trotskyite Affair was to prove an extremely damaging blow to the Soviet Republic's international prestige. In a single disastrous incident the hard-won belief in Soviet stability and trustworthiness as an international actor had been undermined while the carefully curated outward mask of revolutionary solidarity had been torn to pieces y Trotskyite vindictiveness. The reservations expressed by right-wing figures had been vindicated and the revolutionary regime's potential for repressive authoritarianism had been brought to light. With exiled Trotskyites more than willing to spill the beans about their revolutionary rivals, Sverdlov soon rose from being a largely overlooked international nonentity to the face of Soviet repression - the slave-like labor camp system and murderous secret police activities featuring prominently in various right-wing media, and fueling the totalitarian nightmares of many in the west. Particularly in Germany the revelations which emerged in the immediate aftermath of the Trotskyite Affair were to finally provide the right-wing with a formidable weapon against their proletkult-obsessed leftist counterparts - the first step in a general shift towards the right in German politics. During the next couple years, the Soviet government did what it could to repair the damage, Commissars Chicherin and Bogdanov working wholeheartedly to restore Soviet soft power and disabuse any perceived misconceptions and lies peddled by the Trotskyites and hostile right-wing politicians. During this period there was a major shift in attitude and approach within Soviet Foreign Intelligence, which had largely been relegated to observation and asset cultivation duties during the preceding decade. First established by Felix Dzerzhinsky as the Foreign Department of Cheka, international espionage duties had been shifted into the Commissariat for Foreign Affairs following his death and largely been left in the hands of the talented spy master Mikhail Trilisser who, despite significant budgetary constraints, had successfully constructed a highly professional intelligence service which gave deep insights into international events and allowed Soviet Russia to establish its international position with surprising success during the late 1920s and early 1930s. With foreign opinion shifting against the Soviet Republic, Trilisser's service soon found itself rise to incredible importance, resulting in the department's eventual ascension to full-on bureau status as the GBVR - State Foreign Intelligence Bureau - on equal footing with the GBU, GKU, GPU and GVR. This massively increased the reach and power of the Foreign Intelligence section which immediately set about wielding the incredible network of supporters it had built over the preceding decade and a half across the globe. Always emphasizing a deft hand and the utmost secrecy, these efforts focused primarily on securing a establishing a more positive view of Soviet operations internationally, infiltrating trade unions and leftist political parties and perhaps most importantly the recruitment of left-leaning academics - with particular successes achieved in Britain, Germany and the United States. However, the most important and successful of Trilisser's operations in the 1930s would prove to be the immensely important role played by the Soviet spy Richard Sorge in the Japanese Civil War. Having infiltrated the Japanese elite, Sorge was able to consistently send information back to Russia about what was going on at the highest levels of Japanese society - much of which made its way back to Nippon Kyosanto by other lines of contact once relations between Kyosanto and the Soviets normalized in the aftermath of Trotskyite suppression by Nippon Kyosanto. Sorge would maintain close contact with the Loyalist leadership during the Civil War and ultimately followed them to Chosun where he continued to serve as an immensely useful source of intelligence for years, spying on not just the Loyalist remnant, but also building relations to the Korean resistance and amongst the White Russian émigré community. The outbreak of the Japanese Civil War would draw Soviet attentions immediately and while material support for the Japanese Government would remain mostly limited to the covert smuggling of arms for Nippon Kyosanto's Red Guard forces during the height of the Japanese Civil War, Nippon Kyosanto would receive a great deal of information from their Russian allies during these months. This cooperation would greatly expand following the October Revolution as material support increased exponentially while a series of important information-sharing efforts would result in the Shogunate getting word of Britain's decision to enter into the Civil War barely days after the decision was taken in London, as well as the date of departure and composition of the British Dominion Fleet in the leadup to the decisive Battle of the East China Sea. With the emergence of the People's Shogunate, the Soviet Republic had finally found an ally who could shift the geopolitical situation in their favor, a relationship greatly strengthened by the successful negotiation of a peace treaty with the British and a ceasefire with Chosun to bring a close to the Japanese Civil War. A key point of contention between the two Communist states which would require some time to resolve was the status of North Sakhalin which had been occupied by the Empire of Japan in the aftermath of the Fall of Siberia in the name of keeping it free of Communist interference. With a communist regime in Tokyo, the matter became a great deal more confused as the two powers sought to work out a satisfactory resolution, ultimately culminating in North Sakhalin's return to Russian rule in return for significant Soviet aid in the reconstruction of the devastated Japanese Home Isles and the signing of a favorable trade deal on raw resources for the Shogunate. The rise of Red Japan was to have considerable consequences for the Soviets, as a resurgent Red Scare broke out across the globe. The Soviet Republic's pledge to refrain from the violent spread of Communism in the early 1920s, the entire foundation of their acceptance on the international stage, was held to have been broken by the European Right-wing while fellow left-wing governments in Germany and Scandinavia expressed considerable reservations about the continued expansion of Communism. The already worsening international attitude towards the Soviets led to a major shift in Soviet priorities as fears that an ascendant German right-wing might well endanger the critical agricultural imports on which the Soviet Republic relied, and led to the ascent of a faction calling for the military reconquest of the Don Republic as the only solution to the threat posed to the Soviet food supply. With control of the vast and fertile lands of Southern Russia and the Ukraine, the Soviet Republic would be able to provide sufficient agricultural produce to meet the ever growing demand of the rapidly industrializing Communist Empire, but in doing so they risked setting off warfare on a scale not seen since the Great War (31)

    Footnotes:
    (26a) The Five Basic Theories: The Party is the Revolution and the Revolution is the Party, The Party is the Will of the People, The Party Works Towards Justice and Equity For All, The Party Represents All Who Work For The Revolutionary Cause and The Party Protects All Who Support The Revolutionary Cause.

    (26a) The Eight Core Principles: Collective Leadership, Constant Vigilance, Revolutionary Zeal, Unity in a Common Cause, Sacrificial Spirit, Perseverance in the Face of Hardship, Careful Stewardship of the Revolutionary Youth and Constant Contributions to the Revolutionary Cause.

    (26) This section is really to show two major developments, the rapid formalization of government affairs after Trotsky showed how easily it was to manipulate the unclear and amorphous government bureaucracy, and the decision to back down from a Party Purge. The Governing Clique, rather than strengthening their grip on power - which at this point they could without any significant opposition - they decide to maintain the semi-democratic inclusionary approach to governance in the Soviet Republic. I know that the whole Five Theories and Eight Principles is a bit amorphous, but I have given some thought to these and they do give an indication of what direction the Troika want to take Soviet Russia. They are vague enough to be open to interpretation, but there are definite avenues which are opened up and others which are closed down by this formulation. The theories and principles are my attempt to codify some of the various values and ideological elements which have developed over the course of the TL.

    (27) This section is really focused on the fact that Sverdlov is beginning to actively use the vast powers available to him. For nearly a decade he was content to maintain the status quo and allow a revolutionary state to emerge without too much interference, but with the Trotskyite Affair he is pushed to action with immense consequences. I know that using the terms Orgburo and Politburo are going to make things a bit confusing for people given that they are quite different institutions from their OTL counterparts, but I hope that you can forgive me that. The important thing to note with the formation of the four major bureaus are that they are a lot more centralized and powerful than the Commissariats - where the Commissars need to answer to a subordinate council, the bureau heads do not. We also see a more concerted effort to combat corruption and the establishment of the elite career track through the Orgburo, the latter of which effectively serves to standardize and subordinate future top administrators to Sverdlov.

    (28) I want to reiterate that this social hierarchy is quite loose, members who might ostensibly fit in one rung might hold a social or economic status matching two levels above or below them and there is a constant shifting between rungs. Hell, there is a really big difference between if you are a village teacher or a lecturer at a top university as well. I also want to clarify that while the social elite are a good deal wealthier and have a lot more options than those on rungs below them, this is nothing like what we saw under Stalin where the Bolshevik elite lived like latter-day aristocrats. While there are some who are overly corrupt, Sverdlov has made it a mission of his to cut away the rot, wielding the GKU to clear them out. This is in sharp contrast to OTL where Stalin encouraged the amassing of wealth and corrupt practices by his followers because it gave him a handle to control them with.

    (29) The Grain Procurement Crisis IOTL actually played a key role in Stalin's rise, paving the way for the Holodomor and the intensive grain collection campaigns of the period. Here things play out a bit differently, since the Muscovites start from a much lower base and are able to secure foreign imports of produce from the Zollverein. It is worth noting that while the three major regions of Soviet Russia retain vast and important differences, this period really sees a lot of harmonization of governing authority, economic systems and a general reconnection between the disparate regions. The vast natural resources being developed, particularly the oil field discoveries, happen a good deal earlier ITTL because of the added impetus of losing Baku and the southern oil fields in general - the weight of Soviet oil production coming to center on the Yakterinburg region, alongside much of the heavy industrial development. I should mention here that while the inclusion of Siberia and Yekaterinburg into the Muscovite realm helps to alleviate some of the food production pressures, it remains a constant issue drawing the attention of the Central Committee on a consistent basis. Ultimately, it will probably require something like the OTL Green Revolution to resolve the problem in its entirety.

    (30) Much as with rural development, the fragmentation of Russia during the Civil War results in parallel industrial developments which take time to harmonize, but on the other side of these developments the results are that the Soviet Republic has a far more spread out industrial base, with centers in the Far East, around Lake Baikal, in the Urals and north of Moscow. In OTL the NEP era saw light industry, services and the like given over to private enterprise, much as ITTL, but that was soon quashed and government sponsored heavy industry soon took over. The debate mentioned in this section originates from OTL where the Teleological (forced industrialization) faction won out. IOTL Bukharin was a firm supporter of a more natural development and ITTL the more open debate thus results in a compromise in which money is maintained to allow for that more natural industrial development alongside the teleological approach with mixed success. One thing to note is that this industrial development isn't anywhere near as hectic or forceful as IOTL which on one hand means fewer factories built but also means that the economy is much more functional. The demand for consumer goods growing in response to industrialization is also an OTL development, but ITTL the continuation of semi-NEP policies mean that instead of experiencing consumer good shortages and soaring prices for consumer goods, we see it spurring on the growth of private enterprise instead, forming a virtuous economic cycle which helps propel the entire Soviet economy.

    (31) We have been seeing a steady shift back towards anti-Communist international attitudes since the Fall of Siberia, with the rise of Socialist Iran, the Trotskyite Affair and finally the Japanese Civil War really seeing it hammered home. The post-Saratov Treaty Era of Communist Good Will has firmly come to an end and the Soviet government now need to figure out how they deal with a much more hostile international reception. However, the Soviet Republic is pretty well armed to deal with the situation, possessing one of the premier foreign intelligence organizations in the world and a powerful ally in the People's Shogunate. I would like to note that the incredibly competent Trelisser remains as head of the Foreign Intelligence element instead of being ousted for complaining about Yagoda (yes, Yagoda's insane levels of corruption was fault in the removal of more than one talented Soviet Chekist IOTL - I have honestly been shocked by how many talented officers were removed from power because of their distaste of Yagoda's blatant corruption) and as such his department doesn't descend into murderous ham-fisted amateurism as happened IOTL after his removal. It would take until the appointment of the young Pavel Fitin in 1938 at the age of 31 for the organization to begin its recovery IOTL - only for Fitin to be removed the moment WW2 came to an end because Beria didn't like him and saw him as a capable rival. ITTL Fitin is part of the GBVR and is busy making his way up the ranks, but doesn't actually lead the organization.

    Just to reiterate the security complex: the GBU is the general police/guard service which is most commonly faced with the public, GPU is the secret internal police service, GKU is the anti-corruption, auditing and financial crime service, the GVR is military intelligence and the GBVR is foreign intelligence. All five are answerable to the Intelligence Council under the Commissariat for Internal Affairs led by Sverdlov. However, the GBU also answers to the Commissariat of Justice, the GKU to the Commissariat of Finance, the GVR to the Commissariat of Military Security and Intelligence and the GBVR to the Commissariat of Foreign Affairs - only the GPU answers solely to the Commissariat of Internal Affairs and Sverdlov.

    Summary:
    The Japanese Civil War explodes in blood and chaos between Loyalist and Government sides, eventually overturned when the Government is subjected to a Communist Coup.
    The People's Shogunate is established in Japan while the revolutionary government secures control of Government territories. They defeat the British Dominion Fleet in a decisive fleet battle in the East China Sea bringing to an end the Japanese Civil War.
    The People's Republic of Italy seeks to rebuild and develop a uniquely Italian Communist state.
    The Trotskyite Affair sees a harmonization of Soviet society and economy even as global attitudes towards Communism sour in response to the rising Communist Tide.

    End Note:

    I am really excited to be moving into the sections that follow as international tensions rise and the political status quo we have been following during the preceding decade and a half begins to crumble. I really look forward to seeing what everyone thinks of developments in the Communist major powers.

    I have found it really interesting to go back and read through these sections as I edit them given the sheer amount of research they took to write out originally. Soviet Russia is both very different, and yet incredibly similar, to OTL's USSR. They face many of the same, or similar, challenges but often end up addressing them in quite different ways.

    Both this section and the extensive coverage of the leadup to the Trotskyite Affair were an attempt to get a better handle on what the Soviet state which emerged ITTL actually looked like. What are the political structures of this society, how is society organized and partitioned, what does the economy look like, how do the fragmentary developments of Siberia and Yekaterinburg play into the direction taken by the Soviet Republic, and much more.

    I really hope everyone enjoyed this deep dive, and that people are willing to discuss these developments.
     
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