Your father is a wise man!My Father is fond of demanding that our former unruly vassals return to the motherland along with all their dependencies. Considering his rather loose interpretation of vassals to include England, it is a rather large territory he is asking for.
A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline
- Thread starter Zulfurium
- Start date
Next up in my plans. I don't quite know when that will be though. I want to get back to writing on my book a bit, but Finland and then Iceland should round out the Scandinavian sequence of features.
He is also of the opinion the world would be far better off if we set off all the nukes and left it to the cockroaches, so...I like to say I got my social interests from my mother and my world view from my father.
kham_coc
Banned
Lovely update.
Two things though, it's the Å-land islands, not Ä-land and, Tryggers pm period is presumably 1920-33 and not 1920-30 as the caption of his picture suggests.
As for the coup, I have no problems with it going so smoothly, after all it's not so much a coup against the goverment (which controls the levers of power) as a policing action against the commie scum.
Two things though, it's the Å-land islands, not Ä-land and, Tryggers pm period is presumably 1920-33 and not 1920-30 as the caption of his picture suggests.
As for the coup, I have no problems with it going so smoothly, after all it's not so much a coup against the goverment (which controls the levers of power) as a policing action against the commie scum.
God damn Swedes. Can you at least be consistent? Why the sudden Å? Stealing our letters alongside our provinces.... *grumble grumble grumble*
Thanks for pointing out the mistakes. You are right, Trygger's PM period was something I pencilled in provisionally when I was choosing pictures. Lmao, just realized search function on Chrome couldn't distinguish between A, Ä and Å. Anyway, fixed.
It is a proper coup, but at the same time getting very close to an auto-coup. Government is not fully behind the coup, but enough people in enough key positions are sympathetic for them to achieve success.
kham_coc
Banned
Don't worry, soon we will join NATO and then the Reconquest can begin, soon the danish Nazis will be turned out of office and southern Sweden will again be a part of SwedenGod damn Swedes. Can you at least be consistent? Why the sudden Å? Stealing our letters alongside our provinces.... *grumble grumble grumble*
Can I ask something about this world? What will happen to literary world in the world of "A Day in July"? I would love to see how Turkish literature changed, for example.
(I know Turkish literature is rather a obscure topic to ask, but I am just curious)
(I know Turkish literature is rather a obscure topic to ask, but I am just curious)
I have covered some literary developments in the cultural section of Update 40. Nothing on Turkish literature though, since I know absolutely nothing on the topic. If you have any ideas or suggestions you are more than welcome to present them. Hell, a short feature would be even more welcome if you want to contribute. If you are interested you can send me a PM and we can go through it.
Informational Seven: Estimating Germany's Population in 1938
Hi. I've read the timeline a few times and am curious as to the demographic situation of the various countries in the world come 1938-1940. Particularly, i am interested in Germany's population and how much larger it is likely to be considering the various changes that have occurred in TTL relative to OTL. Using Wikipedia (which admittedly may not be very accurate), the population of Germany in 1918 is given as 66,811,000., which declines to 62 million around 1919-1920 (due to the loss of Posen, Alsace-Lorraine and part of West Prussia). As those losses are not incurred in TTL, the base population for 1919-1938 is already higher
Using 66.811 million as a base and growing it at the rate of growth from 1919 to 1938 OTL (68.424 mil - 62.897 mil)/62.897 mil = 8.78% total gives a population of 72,677,005 people in 1938. Austria (excluding Carniola, Istria and Trentino) in 1918 had a population of 6,543,000 that increased to 6,753,000 in 1938 OTL. Slovenia has a population of 1,304,800 given for its 1921 census per Wikipedia. The Austrian Littoral (which includes Istria, Trieste, Gorizia and the territories ceded OTL to Italy after WW1) had a population of 894,287 in 1910.
The Italian population OTL increases from 35,96 million in 1920 to 37.869 million in 1921, with only a 476,292 natural increase over 1921, the population increase likely includes Trentino, South Tyrol and the Austrian Littoral to an amount of (37.869 mil -35.960 mil - 476,292) = 1,432,708.
Before making TTL specific adjustments; including wars, fertility rate changes, population growth, immigration and emigration etc., a population base of 66.811 mil + 6.543 mil + 1.433 mil + 1.305 mil = 76.092 million can be estimated for the 1919-1921 period.
Before making a 2nd post, this is where I will stop. As a rough estimate, I think the mid-to-high 80 millions is a reasonable approximation of Germany's population in 1938. I haven't yet considered the Belgian territorial acquisitions, nor the border adjustments in Poland.
Using 66.811 million as a base and growing it at the rate of growth from 1919 to 1938 OTL (68.424 mil - 62.897 mil)/62.897 mil = 8.78% total gives a population of 72,677,005 people in 1938. Austria (excluding Carniola, Istria and Trentino) in 1918 had a population of 6,543,000 that increased to 6,753,000 in 1938 OTL. Slovenia has a population of 1,304,800 given for its 1921 census per Wikipedia. The Austrian Littoral (which includes Istria, Trieste, Gorizia and the territories ceded OTL to Italy after WW1) had a population of 894,287 in 1910.
The Italian population OTL increases from 35,96 million in 1920 to 37.869 million in 1921, with only a 476,292 natural increase over 1921, the population increase likely includes Trentino, South Tyrol and the Austrian Littoral to an amount of (37.869 mil -35.960 mil - 476,292) = 1,432,708.
Before making TTL specific adjustments; including wars, fertility rate changes, population growth, immigration and emigration etc., a population base of 66.811 mil + 6.543 mil + 1.433 mil + 1.305 mil = 76.092 million can be estimated for the 1919-1921 period.
Before making a 2nd post, this is where I will stop. As a rough estimate, I think the mid-to-high 80 millions is a reasonable approximation of Germany's population in 1938. I haven't yet considered the Belgian territorial acquisitions, nor the border adjustments in Poland.
I cannot stress how much it means to me that people keep coming back to the timeline. It is a large part of what makes it worth writing, that people are interested in the world I have created.
Your calculations were awesome to read, and for the most part it should line up. Main issue is of course the rather significant differences caused by the timeline's alterations as you mention. I think that is where you might run into difficulties, because those are going to be quite different. Germany's self perception and international view, as well as the public zeitgeist is very different from our timeline, so fertility and birth rates will be shifted by quite a bit given changed attitudes. We have considerable streams of migration both to and from the East, but significantly reduced westward emigration. Another thing you will need to account for is how different a non-Nazi Germany would develop in this period.
I look forward to seeing what you end up working it out to. Hope you don't mind if I add your post as an informational. Find it a really interesting one.
It is an interesting question. Well, both are.
I think if the buildup on the border of Khiva is not discovered and the invasion actually goes through, then there is very little chance for the Governing Clique to stop the invasion. Additionally, the Khivans are highly unlikely to succeed in forming any real resistance. More likely, you have a bunch of Georgians and Armenians defect, and the whole thing becomes a matter of clearing out scattered pockets of resistance. Neither the national will nor the resources (arms, provisions and manpower) are present at a sufficient degree to stop the Soviets.
Of course, the consequences of all this would be absolutely massive, with far harsher feelings within the Comintern, and far greater reluctance to work with the Soviets, given their propensity towards swallowing their friends whole. It would likely see a far sharper breech within the Communist community into Pro and Anti-Soviet factions.
As for the attempted coup, if that turns into a longer conflict, or just anything other than a one-sided stomp, we are likely to see a far more even split in international opinion between the two sides. In ADiJ, the Trotskyites end up the oppressed underdogs, drawing sympathy but little real support. If they were able to put up more of a fight, they would find considerable backing from the international Communist community at the time. Either way, it would have been a disaster for the Communist movement's unity regardless of how things ultimately play out.
However, the Governing Clique had a very, very good hand to play and was the broadly favored faction over the Trotskyites as a faction, even if Trotsky was generally very popular, at least on a footing with the most popular of the Governing or Anarchist Cliques.
Concerning the political parties in Germany, I would like to try and guess their position politically and the ideologies that they abide by/seem to follow.
DNVP (Deutschnationale Volkspartei/ German National Peoples Party) - Right-wing. Ideology (National conservatism, German nationalism, Right-wing populism, Integralism (faction)).
DKP (Deutschkonservative Partei/ German Conservative Party) - Centre-right. Ideology (Conservatism, Monarchism, German nationalism, Liberal conservatism)
KVP (Katholische Volkspartei/ Catholic People's Party) - Centre-right to right-wing. Ideology (Social conservatism, Political Catholicism, Christian democracy(faction))
DDVP (Deutschedemokratische Volkspartei/ German Democratic People's Party) - Centre (with centre-left and centre-right elements). Ideology (Liberalism, Social liberalism, National liberalism)
SDP (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands/ Social Democratic Party of Germany) - Centre-left to left-wing. Ideology (Social democracy, democratic socialism)
KPD (Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands/ Communist Party of Germany) - Far-left. Ideology (Communism, Marxism)
KPO (Communist Party of Germany Opposition) - Far-left. Ideology (Communism, Trotskyism, anarchism (faction))
DFP (Deutschefreiheits Partei/ German Liberty Party) - Syncretic. Ideology ( German Liberty, Economic liberalism, German regionalism)
DVP (Deutsche Vaterlandspartei/ German Fatherland Party) - Far-right. Ideology (German nationalism, Antisemitism, Integralism).
This is just a guess, and i could be off in terms of the political positions and the specific ideologies underlying each party.
DNVP (Deutschnationale Volkspartei/ German National Peoples Party) - Right-wing. Ideology (National conservatism, German nationalism, Right-wing populism, Integralism (faction)).
DKP (Deutschkonservative Partei/ German Conservative Party) - Centre-right. Ideology (Conservatism, Monarchism, German nationalism, Liberal conservatism)
KVP (Katholische Volkspartei/ Catholic People's Party) - Centre-right to right-wing. Ideology (Social conservatism, Political Catholicism, Christian democracy(faction))
DDVP (Deutschedemokratische Volkspartei/ German Democratic People's Party) - Centre (with centre-left and centre-right elements). Ideology (Liberalism, Social liberalism, National liberalism)
SDP (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands/ Social Democratic Party of Germany) - Centre-left to left-wing. Ideology (Social democracy, democratic socialism)
KPD (Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands/ Communist Party of Germany) - Far-left. Ideology (Communism, Marxism)
KPO (Communist Party of Germany Opposition) - Far-left. Ideology (Communism, Trotskyism, anarchism (faction))
DFP (Deutschefreiheits Partei/ German Liberty Party) - Syncretic. Ideology ( German Liberty, Economic liberalism, German regionalism)
DVP (Deutsche Vaterlandspartei/ German Fatherland Party) - Far-right. Ideology (German nationalism, Antisemitism, Integralism).
This is just a guess, and i could be off in terms of the political positions and the specific ideologies underlying each party.
Hmmm.... I don't quite think that the structure of left-right quite works here, and a lot of the ideological traits you have added are much more broadly applicable.
German Nationalism: DNVP (most bog-standard rah-rah militarist german nationalism), DKP (less militarist in focus, more oriented around civilian accomplishments and pride in German Civilization), DDVP (nationalism in its German Liberal strain, tracing back to 1848), SPD (honestly one of the most fiercely nationalistic parties in all of Germany, and that is without getting into the extremist elements of the party), KPO (Hold to German nationalism as a revolt against the Russian-infiltrated KPD - more a reaction than a core tenant), DFP (German Nationalism is at the core of their political identity, but they trace their identity back to the HRE and the regionalism of that era) and finally the DVP (Nazi-ish). As you can see almost every party bar the KVP and KPD have some variation of nationalist ideology at the center of their political identity and they harken to it on a regular basis both in policy and rhetoric.
Conservatism: Conservatism comes in a bunch of different guises as well. DNVP are actually not quite as conservative as the DKP, KVP or even the SPD to a lesser extent - the DNVP are much more oriented around their populist appeal and draw a lot of their support from the lower classes. They present themselves as the "loyal" working-man's party, the party of the soldier - the backbone of Germany. KVP are much more in vogue with the politically conservative elite, but hold less of a mass appeal. KVP is as much a revolt against the spreading influence of the Revolutionary Catholic Church as it is in support of the Papal Church - they are conservative, but that conservatism is placed on a very fragile and uncertain footing given how chaotic things have become in the Catholic world and the way in which the Papal Catholic Church is growing ever closer to the Integralist bloc - which many Germans find distressingly Latin in feel. The DDVP has its conservative elements, and is one of the more staid political parties in Germany, holding to old school liberalism in a sea of new ideologies. The SPD is the conservative part of the German left-wing, and are as bound up in political and social orthodoxy as any of the right-wing parties.
Liberalism: Liberalism is also something you see in numerous versions and fashions, but you are largely correct in how you have distributed those here.
Communism: I also think it is important to distinguish the differences in Communism here, because Anarchism is no longer really an independent ideological movement at this point in much of the world. It has largely been absorbed into a much wider far-left political spectrum where ideas are taken, exchanged and borrowed back and forth between all the different movements. As such it is worth distinguishing between the KPD, which follows a more orthodoxly Muscovite version of Communism - which mixes elements of Marxist-Leninism, Anarchism, Syndicalism and Market Socialism into a single ideology - and the KPO which is a reaction and revolt to the KPD. The KPO is formed as a coalition of basically everyone who wants a far-left without the Russian influence - there are Nazis, National Socialists, Anarchists, Orthodox Marxists and a hundred other minor factions all bound together almost solely (for now at least) by their common hatred of the KPD.
Moderation and Radicalism: German politics is split between the left and right, true, but even more significant in its own way is the fact that there is a split between the moderate, old-school parties of the DKP, KVP, DDVP and the SPD, and the newer more radical political movements of the DNVP, KPD, KPO, DFP, and DVP. There is less distance between the moderate parties than between any of them and the radicals, and the radicals have a surprising amount in common amongst themselves as well. German political ideology is spread not so much along a line, as around a circle if that makes sense.
Placing the political parties on a spectrum is as often as not just as confusing as not doing so. I do really appreciate the structuring you went through with the parties here. It gets a whole lot right, just need the added nuance.
Has it been explored what became of Walt Disney TTL? Both his military service and especially interest in drawing predate the POD, but the longer war and the greatly altered shape of the American nation after the guns fall silent could have had a pretty drastic affect on how his career shakes out in the 2+ decades since that Day in July.
I honestly don't know enough about Disney to be able to give anything approaching a satisfactory answer. Him being medic during the height of the Great Flu and the two major 1919 offensives should have marked consequences on him and his art, but I frankly have no idea what way to take that. If it is something you are interested in I more than welcome any efforts at preparing a guest entry. Just send me a PM.
I am sorry about how long it has been since I updated. I have been working steadily on my book (closing on the end of chapter 29 of 45) and I just this month finally found work, so my available free time has been reduced quite significantly recently.
Fun work though - working on anti-money laundering, transaction monitoring and reporting suspicious financial activity to the authorities. Fascinating to see all the different sorts of people who end up popping up in the system.
They have been entirely jumbled up here and never even approached anything like those factional divisions. So much of the Right/Left Opposition was about personal loyalty to some member of the Central Committee, and had very little to do with actual hardline ideological divisions so there are plenty of members of both the Left and Right and "mainstream" factions in the Muscovite and Trotskyite camp - however it is worth noting that the Muscovites have a very broad and varied base of support while the Trotskyites here are a much smaller exilic movement, so the weight of numbers is quite uneven in how they are distributed.
However, let me give it a quick shot. Going through wikipedia for a quick list, only have Bukharin, Rykov, Stalin and Tomsky for the Right Opposition though - there would be lower down members who end up as Trotskyites, just don't have their names atm.
Right Opposition Muscovites: Bukharin (Major Leader of the Governing Clique - Triumvir with Sverdlov and Sokolnikov),
Left Opposition Muscovites: Alexander Beloborodov (OTL Sverdlov ties keep him in Governing Clique circles), Nikolay Krestinsky (never fell out of favor ITTL, but also never really at the center of political power as he was IOTL), Nikolay Muralov (One of the early Muscovites and a core member of the Governing Clique - military to start with but since deeply enmeshed in agricultural affairs sitting on related committees), Valerian Oboloensky-Osinsky (Commissar for Agriculture, close with Muralov and a hardcore supporter of Sokolnikov - bigger winner in the post-Trotsky reshuffle), Georgy Oppokov (A leading supporter of Bukharin and a key member of the Governing Clique), Yevgeni Preobrazhensky (another leading Bukharin supporter and member of the Governing Clique - a big winner in the post-Trotsky shuffle), Georgy Pyatkov (again a Bukharin man and member of the Governing Clique), Timofei Sapronov (A member of the Governing Clique, though close with the anarchists, and a hardcore supporter of Sokolnikov), Ivar Smilga (A protegé of Sverdlov and promoted to Commissar for the Nationalities in the post-Trotsky shuffle), Ivan Smirnov (initially a supporter of Zinoviev, he later joined the Muscovites and rose to the Commissariat for Communications in the post-Trotsky shuffle) Vladimir Smirnov (a youth friend of Bukharin and Osinksy, longtime supporter of Bukharin and a prominent figure in the Governing Clique).
Right Opposition Trotskyites:
Left Opposition Trotskyites: Adolphe Joffe (died in 1927, but his family escaped with the Trotskyites following Trotsky's fall from power), Karl Radek (leading Trotskyite figure and a key figure in the attempted Trotskyite coup - killed in the resultant fighting), Lev Sosnovsky (Fought in the east under Trotsky and later became one of his leading propaganda writers, fled into exile following the failed Trotskyite coup).
Civil Society/Non-Political/Military: Mikhail Tomsky (trade union leader but not part of the Soviet government), Sergei Mrachkovsky (remains involved in the military, initially with Yekaterinburg, but a Soviet Loyalist in the 1930s), Christian Rakovsky (While friends with Trotsky, he ended up in Moscow during the RCW and rose to a prominent position in their foreign service, uninvolved in Trotsky's rise or fall), Victor Serge (although aligned with the Anarchist Clique, he ended up as a prominent writer and journalist instead of being enmeshed in politics)
Dead: Alexei Rykov (killed by Trotsky), Stalin (POD), Mikhail Boguslavsky (Killed in the Ukraine), Andrei Bubnov (formerly Muscovite CC member, ousted from the CC, enlisted as a private and KIA during the RCW), Yakov Drobnis (killed by Whites in Ukraine),
Other: Chen Duxiu (part of the Shanghai Communists)
I am sure more could be found, but these were the ones on the lists on wikipedia. Hope this answers your question at least somewhat.
I think at once less reviled and revered than OTL. It probably doesn't feel like some "lost golden age" as some in Germany felt post WW1 IOTL, and it isn't seen with quite the same foreign rancor as developed OTL. By the very fact of their "victory" and resultant emergence at the centerpoint of a sprawling Zollverein, the Wilhelmine aggression has seen some sense of vindication, but at the same time the sheer cost and horror of the Great War has left an indelible mark.
Effectively the Great War ends up being seen as the culmination of the "German Experiment", with everything in the pre-war period driving towards the climax which ended with Germany vindicated and in command of its long longed-for eastern empire. While reality is quite a bit more complex, to the average German the war probably ends up being seen as an intensely costly conflict with every man, woman and child having had to make enormous sacrifices, but at the end of it all they stand supreme astride the European continent, essentially unchallenged. German culture, economy and politics are interwoven across half a continent, and people from across the globe swarm to Germany in search of opportunity.
For the liberal/social democratically inclined, this post-war period has proven a time of unimagined progress and development, with the German state evolving to truly start meeting some of the many challenges faced by its populace.
Basically instead of being seen as a golden age, the pre-war period comes to be seen in a lot of ways as an incubation period for the true flowering of the post-war period.
Of course, there are elements of society, particularly in the conservative wing, who feel that Germany and the Germans have allowed themselves to rest on their laurels - that they have allowed their society, culture and morality to degrade, and that this imperils the great gains made at monstrous sacrifice during the war.
Hope that answers your question.