A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline

@Zulfurium will their be a ww2 in this timeline and if there is how will it happen
When I was working on the timeline I struggled to find a way in which something like OTL's WW2 would occur, but some period of widespread war does not seem implausible.

At the moment I am rather deeply enmeshed in learning more detailed East Asian history, so I haven't been able to dedicate a great deal of time to the TL. While I had a broad and ill-defined understanding of the region, I have been getting into a whole lot more detail the last several months.
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Well, that was dissapointing. Though I look forward to see how you deal with the situation in Asia (especially Sino-Japanese relations), since the Chinese warlord era seems to have been concluded earlier than OTL, and the civil war seems to have been avoided entirely, which will make it considerably harder for the Japanese to achieve their ambitions in China.

Anyway, if you‘re still contemplating if there‘s going to be some kind of wider conflict, you can try to ‚combine‘ different unrelated flashpoints across the world into a larger conflagration, like you did with the Russian Civil War, and the way it influenced events in China and Persia ITTL.

For example, if there‘s some kind of civil war or major unrest in the US, then that might leave control of American overseas possessions (like the Philippines for example, or even Hawaii) open to dispute while the US sorts itself out. The different powers might even try to intervene in such a hypothetical civil war, as they did in Russia ITTL or in Spain IOTL, which could be another point of conflict. You might see the Japanese and the European powers come into conflict with each other over this, which, together with tense Sino-Japanese relations, might be what leads to war in Asia.

That‘s just a random example I came up with, but such a global ‚time of troubles‘ might serve well as a big (and exciting) future event (or series of events) that you could work toward, so that you don‘t write the TL ‚blind‘, or directionless.
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Had the exact same reaction lol.

Some conflict between the major powers in the next decade or two seems inevitable, but not in Europe. Germany will be the hegemony of Europe pretty soon, and the way I see it the UK will either 1) have to fight them again, but the Great War will still be a harsh memory or 2) reenter splendid isolation, focusing more on Asia and Africa and leaving continental Europe to the Germans. Most likely they British government will be pushed into option #2, as the war in Ireland and the Great War have heavily drained the isles of manpower and gold. Focusing on their colonies and exerting more influence their would be their best bet for keeping out of war and maintaining international prestige in my opinion. I feel like the UK, France and the other allied powers really did want to preserve peace in the Interwar period IOTL, but they kind of played themselves with the Treaty of Versailles and the rise of the Nazis. So with a stable Germany and its puppets in Eastern Europe, the two continental powers will want to reconcile and maintain peace. So no (major) war in Europe for a while.

As @Rufus said, Japan is gonna have a much harder time invading China now that it is reunified under one government. The Japanese might start to focus more on South East Asia i.e. - Indonesia and French Indochina and because of their greater gains in the region ITTL they will see it as a better option. However, that risks the possibility of incurring the wrath of the US or the UK, which Japan really doesn't want. It could go either way. So probably a major war in Asia within a decade or two, maybe Japan v. China or Japan and Siam v Netherlands and France.

Actually the Middle East might have a greater possibility of creating a much wider conflict ITTL. The Hashemites probably want Baghdad and Damascus, as well as the Holy Land and a greater Arab population. In Iran, the Socialists and Monarchists will still be very hostile to each other but not for long as one will most likely win over the other out sooner than later. Once Iran figures itself out, it will want to reclaim the territory that the Ottomans and British have taken and reestablish itself as a power in the region.

For the US, I do see some major unrest in it's future, but not on the level of civil war or major rebellion. Though it will be greater than OTL, it won't reach those levels.
Zulfurium, since your looking into East Asian history an idea for the TL might be to have this guy successfully escape Japanese ruled Korea. If he does manage to escape it could have an interesting effect on the Korean Provisional Government and the Korean Independence Movement, resulting in a Korea that could be quite different from OTL.
Maybe after the collapse of the Tsarist regime in Siberia, Japan will seize the Northern half of Sakhalin?
If White Siberia collapses, then I could see Japan occupying all of the Russian Pacific coast, as they did IOTL for a time, to prevent the Reds from gaining Vladivostok or any other Pacific port.

Though i wonder if the Red push into Siberia violates any terms of the peace treaty signed by the different factions after the Russian Civil War. The Don Whites would likely be quite unhappy if the only other White faction was defeated, leaving them on their own in future conflicts. I could see the Reds back off if the Don Whites (and by extension their foreign backers) threaten the resumption of war.
I didn't believe the Tsarists had much long term viability. Siberia may have a lot of natural resources but a lot of isn't easily accessible, requiring significant investments in infrastructure to access from which the Tsarists started out with basically nothing. It was probably Tsarina Olga being a competent leader that it lasted this long.

When the Tsarists do collapse though I think it will be a three way territorial dispute. Japan would want Northern Sakhalin and much of the Russian Far East's coast. There will be massive opposition from the Reds for obvious reasons, but I also think that China might try to annex Outer Manchuria, which they lost in the Convention of Peking in the 1860s, so I think China would get involved as well. The Chinese will also annex Mongolia since there won't be much opposition left to the move.

Interestingly, I was looking up Sakhalin Island and I noticed that the Qing Dynasty also claimed the island as a part of their territory until the 1800s, so its possible that China might try and go for that as well. The issue though is that the Qing never controlled the island despite their claims to it. Regardless, I expect Japan to acquire the islands when the Tsarists collapse

In all, I expect a three way territorial dispute between Red Russia, China, and Japan over the Russian Far East Coastline, Outer Manchuria, and Sakhalin Island once the Tsarists collapse.

Also, if/when the Tsarists do collapse would the Don Whites try to go for formal independence as a "Republic of Ukraine" or something along those lines?
you know reading this otl actually made me think about how little people actually know how the Entente was defeated in 1918, and how little work was put on that area by the historian of the majors powers. For example in this particular case the war would have ended in november 1918 regardless. but oh well a bit of hand waving is fair I suppose...*shrug*
Does anyone want to help me flesh out the Russian Republic's Offensives and the Four Rivers Offensive? I'm trying to find OOBs for the Kerensky Offensive, but it's proving to be difficult.
End of Hiatus Announcement
End of Hiatus!

Hi everyone!

I hope everyone is staying safe and that you are not too disappointed by how long it has been since I updated the

I am happy to let those still interested in A Day in July know that I am finally ending the long hiatus which this TL has been under. I ended up running into something of a roadblock, uncertain of how to proceed, and ultimately shifted my focus away from the TL for a while. All credit for bringing my hiatus to an end really goes to @Ombra for not only pulling me back into the ADiJ and helping me figure out how to proceed from where I left off, but also for deciding to actively contribute to the TL.

With a better idea of where I want to go with the TL, Ombra and I have begun working together to write up a few updates for you to enjoy. I will remain responsible for pushing forward the TL, while Ombra has been kind enough to work on a variety of supporting materials which should help expand and extend the story moving forward. Amongst other things he has put together the little video at the start of this message.

The plan, at least for the time being, will be to release half an update every Sunday. I currently have written up to Update Thirty-Five over the last couple months, so you can be assured of at least 20 weeks worth of content moving forward. I really hope that you enjoy what work I have done up to this point. All I can say is that there are some wild developments brewing in the background which I really look forward to sharing with all of you.

I will be posting the next Narrative Update immediately hereafter to get us started.
Narrative Update Nine: Romanova in Gallica & A Criminal and Revolutionary
Romanova in Gallica

Grand Duchess Maria Kirilovna at her Marriage Ceremony​

Afternoon, 29th of June 1928
Saint-Geneviève-des-Bois, Essonne, South of Paris, France (1)

Sweet sister, despite the circumstances, having you back in my life was beyond all my hopes and dreams.

However, I have made mistakes - and it would seem I shall now have to pay for them. I hope to see you alive and hale, but should that not prove possible I beg that you look over my children for as long as they should need it. Let them grow up in safety, away from the horrors of Russia, and when the time comes, let them decide on their path forward.

Until we meet again - in this life or in the Kingdom of God,

Your loving sister,

Olga Romanova (2)

Anastasia hugged sweet little Sophia to her chest as she came to the end of her sister's letter.

How had it come to this? After so much, so many horrors, dangers and obstacles, her family had finally returned to the heights of power. She had her sister back, a life she thought lost restored overnight. And just like that, it was gone again.

The cruelty of it had helped her realize that the bloody lessons learned in the revolution should not be forgotten again. She had become complacent - had forgotten how perilous their position was, and they were now paying for it.

There were times when she hated Russia, but it was her family's birth right. Without the Romanovs, Russia was nothing. The proof was everywhere you looked in that godforsaken country, given over to hunger, sickness and death, to godless communists and greedy, overeager parasites. Her family sacrificed itself for Russia time and time again, and now it was going to take her sister as well.

A peal of laughter shattered Anastasia's gloom as Nikolai rushed into the conservatory, a bright smile lighting up his face and an immensely long worm gripped in his fist - his clothes covered in dirt and mud. The sight brought an indulgent smile to Anastasia's face, even as Sophia's screwed up in disgust.

"Auntie! Look! Look! It is so long!" He jabbered, taking hold of the writhing creature at both ends and stretching out his arms to demonstrate.

"I see, it certainly is. Did you find it while digging amongst my rosebush?" She slowly let her face turn stern.

An expression of guilt began to spread across Nikolai's face before it suddenly evened out, "Nuh uh." He seemed to hesitate a moment before continuing "I didn't! I found it on the tiles!" - an earnest expression almost making him convincing.

Anastasia held her silence for a moment before replying, "I am sure. Now why don't you put that away and go ask nanny if she can help you clean up?".

Nikolai hesitated for a moment, seeming to realize that his fib had been discovered, before slumping off - dropping the worm in a nearby bush.

The moment he was out of eyesight, Anastasia gave a quiet laugh and hugged Sophia tight - determination to protect her family rising in her.

She looked over another letter, this one from Savinkov in San Francisco outlining the latest news from Siberia and an update on the situation in America. Near the end of the letter was yet another pointed question towards her decision to settle down in France, rather than in America.

She would need to get back to him soon - she would be needing more support if she was to stay here.

As to the reason why she had to stay in Europe - the answer to that lay next to Savinkov's letter, an invitation from Uncle Kiril (3) - that bloody vulture - inviting her to a family dinner.

It had shocked her when she first arrived in Paris, only to find out that the plight of Siberia was ignored, her sister treated as a pretender and her niece and nephew declared illegitimate heirs to the Russian Throne. In France - in fact, in much of Europe - Russian Royalists supported His Imperial Majesty Kiril Vladimirovich Romanov as the legitimate heir to Emperor Michael.

She felt rage as she gripped the invitation - pretender, illegitimate, where did they find the nerve? What had they done for Russia, what sacrifices had their family made? Petrograd had barely fallen before they fled the country - living the high life in France while she and her siblings died one by one on the long flight across Siberia. The first time Anastasia had seen little Masha (4) on arrival, laughing with her husband and cradling her little son, she had nearly screamed in fury. Her family had been abandoned, and now those vultures who pretended to be family were going to steal what was rightfully her nephew's.

(1) There was a large White Russian Emigré community in France IOTL and ITTL, and it is this community that Anastasia is settling into.

(2) Anastasia initially left Russia with her nieces and nephew in order to take them somewhere safer while their mother dealt with the crisis, but the moment Olga learned of the Red Invasion she could read the writing on the wall. That is why she is so fatalistic in this letter. Worth noting that Anastasia Maria - known as Ana Maria to distinguish her from her aunt - is in school during this scene and as such doesn't play in here.

(3) This is Kiril Vladimirovich Romanov of OTL, who became the OTL Romanov candidate to the throne. ITTL the greater interest in Russia given its extended civil war and division has meant that the Russian Emigré community is better off financially - being able to muster more resources and interest - and as such the Vladimirovich branch of the Romanovs have made a killing. They have been the main Romanov candidate to the throne in the eyes of Europeans and the Russian Emigré community in Europe, which largely views the Siberian Romanovs as illegitimate claimants. By contrast, Savinkov has been able to build a robust Siberian Romanov following in America and the Vladimirovich line of the Romanovs is largely disregarded there.

(4) Masha is Grand Duchess Maria Kirilovna of Russia, Kiril's eldest daughter.

A Criminal and Revolutionary

Wild Bill Lovett, Leader of the White Hand Gang and Ruler of New York's Criminal Underworld​

Evening, September 23rd 1928
Brooklyn Waterfront, New York City, United States of America

Wild Bill Lovett had a glint in his eyes as his guest entered his offices. The man was in his late thirties, clean shaven with a sharp gaze, and had his hat in hand.

Bill let a grim smile cross his face as he rose from his seat, arms wide in welcome, "If it isn't the esteemed Michael Collins, Hero of the Irish Republic and exiled leader of our dear Emerald Isle! What can I do for you today? Here to demand another handout? (1)"

The mockery and anger in his voice was clear - a result of much financial investment in a cause without much in the way of returns.

"Not today. We both know you have been a dedicated supporter in the struggle for freedom, and I thank you for the donations, but today I am not here for your money."

"Oh? Then do tell, what reason do you have for visiting?"

Collins smile took on a trace of vindictiveness as he replied, "Nothing much, I just wanted to let you know that I have had word that the AILE has reached a dead end in their persecution of the Italians. McAdoo is demanding results, and someone in Boston thought it would be a good idea to mention your name."

"How do you know?", Bill's expression had turned sour and a flash of anger was swiftly suppressed.

"We have friends on the docks and in boardrooms - there are those dedicated to the cause spread across much of the American nation, is it so hard to believe that we might have a few in the AILE? (2)"

Bill's expression turned incomparably sour before he gave a shallow nod of thanks, "I am in your debt, Collins, now if there is nothing else - please bloody well get out of here."

"I will come calling if there is anything. Word to the wise, you might want to reconsider your friendship with Gustin and his boys (3) - and you should probably stop using the Brooklyn docks for the next couple months."

With his piece said, Collins placed his hat on his head and left the building. Left behind was a brooding Bill Lovett, his adept mind already hard at work countering the calamity the Irishman had brought word of.

It was going to be a hard, bloody couple months to come.

(1) The Irish Republican leadership fled into exile in America after the Glenveagh Massacre and have had to find various ways of sustaining itself as they wait for an opportunity to restart their revolution in Ireland. Luckily for them there are numerous patriotic Irish-Americans who are willing to make donations, as well as others - like many of the Irish criminal gangs - who have found that being part of the patriotic effort brings a variety of perks with it.

(2) Irish Independence had a significant degree of support in large parts of American society and enjoyed considerable support in the Irish-American community. The fact that there are Irish-Americans in the AILE willing to leak information to support the cause should give an idea of how significant the movement is. The American government, and the AILE in particular, have had a blind eye to a lot of this - which is part of why the Italians have been hammered so hard by the government while the Irish have made it through relatively easily. With the Italian gangs largely suppressed and the Irish ever more visible, it has become hard to keep avoiding a crackdown against them. Luckily for the Irish gangs, they have friends and contacts in high places.

(3) The Gustin Gang is the preeminent Boston criminal gang at the time and is tied in a loose alliance with the White Hand. As obliquely referenced, the Gang has begun leaking information to the AILE.