A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline

[Tannenberg]

Let's recap the world situation in this ATL:
Italy: Imagine fighting each other instead of fighting your enemy lmao (comment made by the Gramsci gang)
Serbia: (OOFS IN SERBIAN)
China:
- Wang: How the war against Fengtian is going my pal, Chiang?
- Chiang: In the name of the Emperor, you are under arrest
- Wang: Are you threating me, General Chiang?
- Chiang: The Kuomitang will decide your fate
-Wang: I'm the Kuomintang
Persia: P e r s i a B r o k e (literally)
Mexico: Villa confirms Mexican Revolution 2: Battle Royale

Welp, at least the austrian corporal is not here to screw things even more Right? Let's hope that the other Russias won't kill each other...again

 

[rommel12]

the first time I see the mafia get their own country.

 

[Zulfurium]

Qing Dynasty restored? I don't particularly like the Qing but its probably better than the Republic. The KMT's abysmal policies and decisions throughout the 1930s and 40s made it very unpopular, ruining their initial popularity, and drove China further into the ground, something that didn't end until the post-Mao era. With that said though, with a unified China it probably means that Japan won't attack China in the 1930s, assuming that Japan still falls under a military government. It was the constant warfare from both the Warlord Era and the Chinese Civil War that gave Japan an opportunity to invade. Without that it is unlikely Japan would take such a risk. Hell, IIRC, the Japanese thought the Second Sino-Japanese War would be over in a matter of weeks to months with complete Japanese victory. I hope that the Xuantong Emperor or his government is able to make some kind of improvements to China. Its hard to have China in that period come out even worse than IOTL.

While it the Qing are restored, actual power resides with the Fengtian Clique of generals, led by Zhang Zuolin. The government is effectively a military dictatorship with strong ties to the Japanese and considerably weaker ties to the United States and Great Britain. I hope to avoid the absolute nightmare of OTL, although that shouldn't be too difficult considering the absolute shitshow China's 20th century was. Japan should be an interesting place moving forward.

Damn, those Austria borders look nasty. Wasnt it that the Srijem area was quite heavily Magyar, so wouldnt it be annexed into Hungary instead? Wouldnt it be more sensible to annex Serbia into Croatia rather than Hungary, since the Serbs and Croats are same/very close ethnolinguistically, leading to a de facto Croatian led South Slavic kingdom, sans Montenegro and Slovenia. Speaking of which, I still dont quite undrstand why Montenegro was given to Albania.

Will we be getting an Eastern Europe update? How is the Germanization of the Baltic going?

To my knowledge Srijem was primarily Slavic. As for the borders, that has more to do with the pre-war internal borders between Croatia-Slavonia and Hungary-Serbia than the ethnic composition. Keep in mind that this is a world in which the Fourteen Points never got farther than Wilson's speeches. As such the idea of national self-determination is significantly less powerful and is only a very limited part of decision-making in situations such as this.

It was actually more the other way around - Albania was given Montenegro, but Albania was such a shit show in the post-war period that the Montenegrins were able to establish themselves as dominant in their common bureaucracy. The new capital is basically on the OTL border between Albania and Montenegro - the end result is more a unification of the two rather than one taking over the other.

Let's recap the world situation in this ATL:
Italy: Imagine fighting each other instead of fighting your enemy lmao (comment made by the Gramsci gang)
Serbia: (OOFS IN SERBIAN)
China:
- Wang: How the war against Fengtian is going my pal, Chiang?
- Chiang: In the name of the Emperor, you are under arrest
- Wang: Are you threating me, General Chiang?
- Chiang: The Kuomitang will decide your fate
-Wang: I'm the Kuomintang
Persia: P e r s i a B r o k e (literally)
Mexico: Villa confirms Mexican Revolution 2: Battle Royale

Welp, at least the austrian corporal is not here to screw things even more Right? Let's hope that the other Russias won't kill each other...again

Lol, not like you are wrong with any of those. I don't really see any reason for Hitler to emerge as any sort of significant figure at this point given TTL's different development. As for the Russias, never tell a Russian they can't murder another. As others pointed out, the current borders aren't exactly the most natural and as I have mentioned - the reason that peace was established was not so much agreement on the issues so much as just pure exhaustion on all sides.

the first time I see the mafia get their own country.

I thought it would be interesting to explore. IOTL Mussuolini brought a police escort to a Mafia town in Sicily in 1924, which the Mafia Don took as an insult leading him to have the town's populace boycott Mussolini's speech. Mussolini got butt hurt over the matter and unleashed Carbineri on the island, who terrorized the region, killed Mafia and provoked a significant exodus. It is one of the reasons the Italian Mafia in the US proved so willing to support the American invasion of Italy during WW2 and why Italian organized crime, which had already begun challenging Jewish and Irish control of the US criminal underworld, suddenly became such a dominant force.

 

[This Machine]

@Zulfurium
Well, China being unified, even if it is under a military dictatorship with a monarchy, is an improvement in and of itself. Also, with the warlords and KMT quashed will the restored Qing government move against Tibet and Mongolia soon?

 

[Tannenberg]

@Zulfurium
Well, China being unified, even if it is under a military dictatorship with a monarchy, is an improvement in and of itself. Also, with the warlords and KMT quashed will the restored Qing government move against Tibet and Mongolia soon?

Mongolia is probably under Sternberg protection so is more likely a move against the isolationist Tibet. That if the Brittish dont intervene first though

 

[Zulfurium]

@Zulfurium
Well, China being unified, even if it is under a military dictatorship with a monarchy, is an improvement in and of itself. Also, with the warlords and KMT quashed will the restored Qing government move against Tibet and Mongolia soon?

Bear in mind that it is more a matter of consolidating power into a few major allied warlord factions held together by Zhang Zuolin’s predominant position, that said you are absolutely right that this is a significant improvement.

Mongolia is probably under Sternberg protection so is more likely a move against the isolationist Tibet. That if the Brittish dont intervene first though

Sternberg and Zhang are actually pretty close allies, but yes Sternberg controls Mongolia as a protectorate for the time being. As for Tibet, that is probably the next focus for the Fengtian clique.

 

[Karelian]

I have mixed feeling about the Qing restoration. In OTL the attempts to return to Manchu rule were met with hostility from all segments of the Han Chinese society, as the whole Chinese culture and the old dynastic worldview was under tremendous turmoil during these decades. What was absolutely certain was that the Manchus were down and out at this point, and any new attempt to create a dynastic figurehead would have better chances with a new Han dynasty, as an OTL Hóngxiàn Huángdì-style attempt.

By early 1900s the idea of a new dynasty still had lot of support, especially overseas, whereas by late 1910s was a time when a new generation of Han Chinese had already taken over and parted ways with the very idea of a Son of Heaven for good.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

So I guess the last real existing Serbian communities still left in the Balkans are in Greece and the last real remnants of its male population were with the Army in Thessaloniki ouch.

China is very much living in interesting times still better than the warlord era though

and Italy looks set to finally end a near decade of turmoil

The Interwar era looks to only a little bit less chaotic than OTL

 

[Zulfurium]

I have mixed feeling about the Qing restoration. In OTL the attempts to return to Manchu rule were met with hostility from all segments of the Han Chinese society, as the whole Chinese culture and the old dynastic worldview was under tremendous turmoil during these decades. What was absolutely certain was that the Manchus were down and out at this point, and any new attempt to create a dynastic figurehead would have better chances with a new Han dynasty, as an OTL Hóngxiàn Huángdì-style attempt.

By early 1900s the idea of a new dynasty still had lot of support, especially overseas, whereas by late 1910s was a time when a new generation of Han Chinese had already taken over and parted ways with the very idea of a Son of Heaven for good.

I don’t think you are wrong as such, but I do think you are a bit too absolutist in your formulation if that makes sense.

The Qing are by no means popular and moving forward under their auspices probably isn’t the greatest idea, bu Zhang Zuolin was a noted Qing-loyalist and as such I don’t see him suddenly breaking with the Xuantong Emperor. Now while Zhang has emerged as supreme commander and effective ruler of Qing China, the ties of loyalty in the government are to Zhang, not the Emperor.

So I guess the last real existing Serbian communities still left in the Balkans are in Greece and the last real remnants of its male population were with the Army in Thessaloniki ouch.

China is very much living in interesting times still better than the warlord era though

and Italy looks set to finally end a near decade of turmoil

The Interwar era looks to only a little bit less chaotic than OTL

Yeah, the Serbs got pretty much hammered.

The Post-War period is more Front-loading the action if that makes sense, but yes, it is a very chaotic and interesting period.

 

[splashface256]

TBH I too am still not sold on the restoration of monarchy in China - both Yuan Shikai's brief reign and the attempted restoration of Puyi in 1917 utterly failed so I'm not too sure why the Fengtien would be able to pull it off

 

[Zulfurium]

TBH I too am still not sold on the restoration of monarchy in China - both Yuan Shikai's brief reign and the attempted restoration of Puyi in 1917 utterly failed so I'm not too sure why the Fengtien would be able to pull it off

Both of those attempts failed because powerful generals within the Beiyang government opposed them, Yua Shikai by his personal enemies, exacerbated by this proof of his ambitions, and the Manchu resorption of 1917 was part of a coup attempt with the Xuantong Emperor as justification. Both of these attempts were under significantly more problematic circumstances than those facing the Fengtian Clique.

The Fengtian are an established and powerful faction commanded centrally by Zhang Zuolin, whose supporters proved surprisingly loyal IOTL. The Qing restoration occurs piecemeal, with the most powerful factions in the north defeated before hand.

Sure, the Qing dynastic legitimacy has been severely weakened, but this wouldn’t be the first time that a dynasty regained its grip on the Mandate of Heaven. There will be significant challenges and the long term survival of the Qing Dynasty is extremely questionable. But for the moment, the Fengtian Clique has proven successful in crushing or incorporating its opponents.

 

[aap5454]

I can imagine Gavrilo Princip will ironically be viscerally hate by pretty much every Serb alive, since he directly caused the spark that blew up the entire Serbian nation in the space of about 7 years.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

I don’t think you are wrong as such, but I do think you are a bit too absolutist in your formulation if that makes sense.

The Qing are by no means popular and moving forward under their auspices probably isn’t the greatest idea, bu Zhang Zuolin was a noted Qing-loyalist and as such I don’t see him suddenly breaking with the Xuantong Emperor. Now while Zhang has emerged as supreme commander and effective ruler of Qing China, the ties of loyalty in the government are to Zhang, not the Emperor.

So, wile loyalty would prevent him from forcing it to happen, would Zhang help to create some extra legitimacy by perhaps being adopted as a successor? Or am I thinking too much along European patterns of how these dynasties could change from one name to the next?

 

[Bison]

I can imagine Gavrilo Princip will ironically be viscerally hate by pretty much every Serb alive, since he directly caused the spark that blew up the entire Serbian nation in the space of about 7 years.

If the Serbs survive at all, no doubt they will have an incredibly robust national, under-siege identity, much like the Boers of South Africa, and Gavrilo Princip would probably be revered as a hero who stood up to foreign tyranny.

 

[Zulfurium]

I can imagine Gavrilo Princip will ironically be viscerally hate by pretty much every Serb alive, since he directly caused the spark that blew up the entire Serbian nation in the space of about 7 years.

If the Serbs survive at all, no doubt they will have an incredibly robust national, under-siege identity, much like the Boers of South Africa, and Gavrilo Princip would probably be revered as a hero who stood up to foreign tyranny.

Princip is a figure of immense controversy in Serbian circles, but given the glorification of Prince Lazar and the Fields of Kosovo in Serb nation-building, I think they would tend towards glorifying him, holding him up as proof of Serbian indomitability.

TBH, the fact that Princip is celebrated to the degree he is in Serbia, including marking the steps he took as he walked up to the car Franz Ferdinand and his wife were sitting in, is a bit sickening to me. I know all the theories and arguments about how if it hadn't been Sarjevo in 1914, then it would have been somewhere and someone else, but when it comes down to it, that single act by a 19-year old boy was probably the single most destructive act of the 20th century - arguably in human history. From Franz Ferdinand's assassination comes the Great War, from which came the bloody chaos of the interwar-period, which put in place the key blocks building to the Great Depression, which leads to the rise of extremists across the globe and the Second World War. Out of WW2 came de-colonization, the Cold War and nuclear weapons. Hell, the Middle Eastern shitshow we are dealing with now-a-days has many of its roots in the aftermath of the Great War.

Sorry about the rant, I know there are more factors to it, but this is one of the things that gets to me.

So, wile loyalty would prevent him from forcing it to happen, would Zhang help to create some extra legitimacy by perhaps being adopted as a successor? Or am I thinking too much along European patterns of how these dynasties could change from one name to the next?

I actually think that would make the situation worse. No one is really in doubt about Zhang being in charge and the Emperor is largely confined to the Forbidden City - effectively no more than a figure head for the Fengtian government.

I have been playing around with the idea of marrying one of Puyi's sisters to Zhang Zuolin's eldest son - I looked into a marriage the other way around but I don't think anyone would really accept such a match given the low birth of Zhang Zuolin, a match the other way around is more palatable and directly ties the Zhang's to the Qing dynasty.

From my understanding of Chinese traditions (which granted, is somewhat limited), I think it far more likely that Zhang would make himself the most powerful man below the Son of Heaven. With Puyi little more than a figurehead, is there really any need for Zhang to change dynasties? The Qing name, while tarnished significantly, still had a lot of supporters and breaking with centuries of precedent is hard even under revolutionary circumstances.

 

[Bison]

TBH, the fact that Princip is celebrated to the degree he is in Serbia, including marking the steps he took as he walked up to the car Franz Ferdinand and his wife were sitting in, is a bit sickening to me. I know all the theories and arguments about how if it hadn't been Sarjevo in 1914, then it would have been somewhere and someone else, but when it comes down to it, that single act by a 19-year old boy was probably the single most destructive act of the 20th century - arguably in human history. From Franz Ferdinand's assassination comes the Great War, from which came the bloody chaos of the interwar-period, which put in place the key blocks building to the Great Depression, which leads to the rise of extremists across the globe and the Second World War. Out of WW2 came de-colonization, the Cold War and nuclear weapons. Hell, the Middle Eastern shitshow we are dealing with now-a-days has many of its roots in the aftermath of the Great War.

Sorry about the rant, I know there are more factors to it, but this is one of the things that gets to me.

Totally agree man, war is the worst thing in the world. World War 1 was the war that destroyed our civilisation and ushered in the 20th century as the dreadful thing that we know it as, and I disagree with worshiping anything around war as heroic, good, or necessary. Here in Sarajevo, the bridge Franz Ferdinand was shot on is a semi-popular tourist location in the old city, though theres not much more than a sign and some small monuments around it. There are bars, streets, and restaurants named after him, and a lot that is probably due primarily to the first Yugoslavia, who had a lot to thank him for with expanding the nation from an insignificant South Balkan nation into a regional power that united the South Slavic peoples of the Western Balkans. Ultimately, though, I do believe much merit to the idea that individuals in and of themselves dont have a great impact on history, with them generally accompanying broader societal trends.

I think World War 2 and the things you mention actually come from the American intervention in the war, which tipped the scales heavily in the allies favour and put a stop to the idea of a negotiated, fair peace a la the Congress of Vienna that led to more or less a hundred years of European peace. It wasnt at all an American war, and the idea that the Zimmerman telegram posed any threat to America is absurd, when German ships couldnt even leave port let alone invade the United States. Wilson is made out to be a good idealist, but based on his performance in World War 1 he was entirely incompetent, which, coupled with an arrogance that he could outmanouevre European diplomats into a 'peace without victory' led to the rise of Hitler, and, I would say, the Soviet Union and all of the accompanying terrible regimes.

For example, his insistence that the militarists step down and the social democrats sign the peace treaty on the behalf of the Germans really screwed them hard, and gave rise to the 'stab in the back myth', when it was really the militarists like Ludendorff who started and lost the war. Even then though, the terms were absurd - they werent even in Germany proper, still on French soil, and judging by the peace treaty it was like the allies were on the doorstep of Berlin a la '45, rather than Armistice.

 

[Halagaz]

TBH, the fact that Princip is celebrated to the degree he is in Serbia, including marking the steps he took as he walked up to the car Franz Ferdinand and his wife were sitting in, is a bit sickening to me.

Austria-Hungary's behavior towards Serbs was highly brutal and repressive in OTL. Indeed, your TL also depicts A-H not pulling any punches when it comes to their treatment of occupied Serbia.
So it's really not surprising that a symbol of resistance against A-H would be celebrated.

When it comes to China, I also think a Qing restoration is basically shooting itself in the foot...with one exception: if certain things go wrong, Zhang could definitely find a useful scapegoat in Puyi.

 

[Zulfurium]

Totally agree man, war is the worst thing in the world. World War 1 was the war that destroyed our civilisation and ushered in the 20th century as the dreadful thing that we know it as, and I disagree with worshiping anything around war as heroic, good, or necessary. Here in Sarajevo, the bridge Franz Ferdinand was shot on is a semi-popular tourist location in the old city, though theres not much more than a sign and some small monuments around it. There are bars, streets, and restaurants named after him, and a lot that is probably due primarily to the first Yugoslavia, who had a lot to thank him for with expanding the nation from an insignificant South Balkan nation into a regional power that united the South Slavic peoples of the Western Balkans. Ultimately, though, I do believe much merit to the idea that individuals in and of themselves dont have a great impact on history, with them generally accompanying broader societal trends.

I think World War 2 and the things you mention actually come from the American intervention in the war, which tipped the scales heavily in the allies favour and put a stop to the idea of a negotiated, fair peace a la the Congress of Vienna that led to more or less a hundred years of European peace. It wasnt at all an American war, and the idea that the Zimmerman telegram posed any threat to America is absurd, when German ships couldnt even leave port let alone invade the United States. Wilson is made out to be a good idealist, but based on his performance in World War 1 he was entirely incompetent, which, coupled with an arrogance that he could outmanouevre European diplomats into a 'peace without victory' led to the rise of Hitler, and, I would say, the Soviet Union and all of the accompanying terrible regimes.

For example, his insistence that the militarists step down and the social democrats sign the peace treaty on the behalf of the Germans really screwed them hard, and gave rise to the 'stab in the back myth', when it was really the militarists like Ludendorff who started and lost the war. Even then though, the terms were absurd - they werent even in Germany proper, still on French soil, and judging by the peace treaty it was like the allies were on the doorstep of Berlin a la '45, rather than Armistice.

I mean, that is the thing about the Great War. There is more than enough blame to go around and you could arguably point to any single state involved in the conflict and say they were responsible for it. I can understand why Princip became a subject of hero worship in Yugoslavia, but it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Sort of like celebrating that you got your asshole neighbor to move - but you accomplished that objective by setting his house on fire whereupon it spread to the rest of the town, burning it all down.

As for the Americans, I largely agree with you that Wilson was one of the primary figures in setting the ground work for Europe's century-long shitshow. Unleashing the genie of national self-determination threw nationalism into overdrive and tore apart what had previously been a relatively poor but stable region despite its multiethnic composition. The Americans had no clue what they were doing when they entered onto the European stage and largely bungled the entire affair from start to finish. However, it is honestly impossible to blame the US for the Soviet Union considering that they had nothing to do with each other and that the Russian Revolutions started before the US even entered the war.

Personally, I think the most important factor in how the Great War set the stage for the century to follow lies in the way the Allies completely broke with diplomatic precedent stretching back to the Treaty of Westphalia of having direct negotiations with the defeated parties. The treatment of German envoys and representatives were a lesson in humiliation which made any German acceptance of the Versailles Treaty next to impossible. Not only that, but by forcing through a peace put together haphazardly by three statesmen, often in direct conflict with each other, they created a set of humiliating and badly planned terms.

Austria-Hungary's behavior towards Serbs was highly brutal and repressive in OTL. Indeed, your TL also depicts A-H not pulling any punches when it comes to their treatment of occupied Serbia.
So it's really not surprising that a symbol of resistance against A-H would be celebrated.

When it comes to China, I also think a Qing restoration is basically shooting itself in the foot...with one exception: if certain things go wrong, Zhang could definitely find a useful scapegoat in Puyi.

Oh, definitely. Austria-Hungary are not the heroes of this tale by any means. As mentioned above, they are the asshole neighbor who seems to constantly infringing on your own property. But the Serbian solution was to douse the entire place in gasoline and set it on fire. Not exactly a productive course of action.

 

[This Machine]

Will Zhang Zuolin still die in 1928? If he does a power struggle could erupt between Puyi and his warlord generals. This could either result in a return to the republic, a return to the status quo, a new Han Chinese dynasty, or Puyi winning out. It'll be interesting to see if Zhang dies, and if he does, what the result will be.

 

[Halagaz]

Oh, definitely. Austria-Hungary are not the heroes of this tale by any means. As mentioned above, they are the asshole neighbor who seems to constantly infringing on your own property. But the Serbian solution was to douse the entire place in gasoline and set it on fire. Not exactly a productive course of action.

What Princip and his associates knew is different from what we know today: they believed, ironically, that Franz Ferdinand was the leader of the Austrian war faction and that killing him was the only way to prevent a war.

But yeah, that's a complicated discussion with like nine separate sub-questions - and one that probably shouldn't be allowed to clutter up this thread.