Popular fictional works, such as Tolkien's excellent and detailed Middle-Earth books, can serve as the basis for alternate history. Due to the presence of magic, all scenarios inside this universe are considered ASB.
Note that some of these scenarios, as well as many others, are explored in alternate universe fanfics on many different websites.
Timelines based on Tolkien's works
David Bofinger's website with Legendarium PODs (archived version)