This is not the first time that this question has been brought up on these forums. Using google search, I found several threads that discussed the implications for pop culture and specifically the fantasy genre if Tolkien had died? The general consensus seemed to be that there would have been no major impact and some other author would have filled the vacuum and things would have proceeded apace. I think there is some truth to that, but I don't think it is quite so simple. Pardon me while I ramble for several paragraphs.
How much of an impact did Tolkien have? Lord of the Rings was not the first epic fantasy by a long shot, but it was the codifier, so much so that it set the direction, for better or worse, for fantasy through the next fifty years and beyond.
First of all, it brought fantasy into the mainstream. Fantasy stories were always popular, but relatively niche. For a number of reasons it appealed to the counter-culture in the decades immediately after its publication. Additionally, despite its density and dry presentation, LotR's themes of good vs evil, tradition, mythic heroes and supernatural forces, anti-war, etc, etc, appealed to readers basic sensibilities. So, interest in fantasy grew exponentially and the market exploded. It was this excitement which lead to the creation and success of DnD and other RPGs and their subsequent impact on the perception of fantasy and upon authors and creators of the genre for decades.
Secondly, books and stories that had been popular long before but now were obscure and forgotten were dredged up for republication (e.g. Ballantine Adult Fantasy) to feed the market for fantasy hungry readers, allowing their rediscovery and preventing their fall into complete obscurity.
Thirdly, loads of new fantasy arrived. Some of it was original (Earthsea, Witch World) and was bought and pushed to fill the market. Others were shameless clones (Shannara, Iron Tower). Either way, it was everywhere and dozens of fantasy author's careers were launched. The pervasiveness of the tropes Tolkien popularized grew to the point of being overwhelming. Epic high fantasy became the new standard.
Fourth, we saw the revival of sword and sorcery and other darker and/or weirder fantasy genres as a counter-reaction to Tolkien's influence. Howard, Lovecraft, Peake were rediscovered, Jack Vance and Fritz Leiber got their second wind, and Moorcock and Karl Wagner became huge influences as well. A great deal of this was directly in answer to Tolkien. Hell, it continues to this day. A Song of Ice and Fire was partially written as a counter to Lord of the Rings imitators.
There's a bunch more ripple effects (look at the movies and their impact, for example), but I'm not going to belabor it. Moving on, let's say Tolkien had died in the trenches and had never written The Hobbit or LotR. What other fantasy author or book really fit the bill to fill that vacuum? Out of Tolkien's contemporaries, both Peake and Eddison's works were more strange and esoteric and morally ambiguous. Poul Anderson's works were short and tragic. Fletcher Pratt's novels were dry, not especially well written, and also morally ambiguous. Leiber and Vance were not very prolific at that time. There was no real work of that time with similar themes or relative accessibility that I see catching on as Lord of the Rings did. So no fantasy explosion.
And if there is no big fantasy explosion, then what happens? Let's say that Andre Norton and Ursula LeGuin may never achieve recognition for their fantasy works. Moorcock has no Tolkien to rebel against and New Age fantasy does not become his bread and butter; instead he focuses on writing alternate history and weird spy fiction as a protest against imperialism and Ian Fleming instead. All of the obscure and forgotten fantasy of yore remains obscure and forgotten and is not republished until the 2000s. As a result of all this, DnD never materializes and SciFi rpgs or wargaming fill its place instead. Fantasy remains a niche genre that goes undeveloped for several more decades. And so on and so forth.
For the most part this is pure speculation, but I think it's an interesting avenue of thought. I have actually had some interest in incorporating this into a pop culture timeline that's been rolling around in my head. What do you guys think?
How much of an impact did Tolkien have? Lord of the Rings was not the first epic fantasy by a long shot, but it was the codifier, so much so that it set the direction, for better or worse, for fantasy through the next fifty years and beyond.
First of all, it brought fantasy into the mainstream. Fantasy stories were always popular, but relatively niche. For a number of reasons it appealed to the counter-culture in the decades immediately after its publication. Additionally, despite its density and dry presentation, LotR's themes of good vs evil, tradition, mythic heroes and supernatural forces, anti-war, etc, etc, appealed to readers basic sensibilities. So, interest in fantasy grew exponentially and the market exploded. It was this excitement which lead to the creation and success of DnD and other RPGs and their subsequent impact on the perception of fantasy and upon authors and creators of the genre for decades.
Secondly, books and stories that had been popular long before but now were obscure and forgotten were dredged up for republication (e.g. Ballantine Adult Fantasy) to feed the market for fantasy hungry readers, allowing their rediscovery and preventing their fall into complete obscurity.
Thirdly, loads of new fantasy arrived. Some of it was original (Earthsea, Witch World) and was bought and pushed to fill the market. Others were shameless clones (Shannara, Iron Tower). Either way, it was everywhere and dozens of fantasy author's careers were launched. The pervasiveness of the tropes Tolkien popularized grew to the point of being overwhelming. Epic high fantasy became the new standard.
Fourth, we saw the revival of sword and sorcery and other darker and/or weirder fantasy genres as a counter-reaction to Tolkien's influence. Howard, Lovecraft, Peake were rediscovered, Jack Vance and Fritz Leiber got their second wind, and Moorcock and Karl Wagner became huge influences as well. A great deal of this was directly in answer to Tolkien. Hell, it continues to this day. A Song of Ice and Fire was partially written as a counter to Lord of the Rings imitators.
There's a bunch more ripple effects (look at the movies and their impact, for example), but I'm not going to belabor it. Moving on, let's say Tolkien had died in the trenches and had never written The Hobbit or LotR. What other fantasy author or book really fit the bill to fill that vacuum? Out of Tolkien's contemporaries, both Peake and Eddison's works were more strange and esoteric and morally ambiguous. Poul Anderson's works were short and tragic. Fletcher Pratt's novels were dry, not especially well written, and also morally ambiguous. Leiber and Vance were not very prolific at that time. There was no real work of that time with similar themes or relative accessibility that I see catching on as Lord of the Rings did. So no fantasy explosion.
And if there is no big fantasy explosion, then what happens? Let's say that Andre Norton and Ursula LeGuin may never achieve recognition for their fantasy works. Moorcock has no Tolkien to rebel against and New Age fantasy does not become his bread and butter; instead he focuses on writing alternate history and weird spy fiction as a protest against imperialism and Ian Fleming instead. All of the obscure and forgotten fantasy of yore remains obscure and forgotten and is not republished until the 2000s. As a result of all this, DnD never materializes and SciFi rpgs or wargaming fill its place instead. Fantasy remains a niche genre that goes undeveloped for several more decades. And so on and so forth.
For the most part this is pure speculation, but I think it's an interesting avenue of thought. I have actually had some interest in incorporating this into a pop culture timeline that's been rolling around in my head. What do you guys think?