Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
While any conflict between the British and Japanese is ITTL at present a long way off, and much can change between the situation now and the situation in December of 1941. The wings of the butterfly are now beginning to beat strongly, and much of the situation as was IOTL, will have changed, while some things will essentially remain the same. Let’s look at what will change, the attitude of the British towards events in the Far East, and the response to them. Britain wasn’t blind to the increasing threat that Japan represented to British interests in the Far East, and had taken major actions to deal with them. But prior to the collapse of France in 1940, the British response had been predicated on their response being predominately Navel. The significant spending on the building of the fleet base in Singapore, the construction of the aircraft carrier Ark Royal, were all aimed at containing the Japanese threat. However as always the best laid plans of mice and men, came to nought.
Britain which had seen the Mediterranean as a safe backwater, with the French slated to take the major role, both on land as at sea. The French Fleet was to contain any Italian ambitions, and the French Army of Africa, to sandwich the Italians in North Africa, between themselves and the British in Egypt. Thus Britain could afford to send a significant fleet to Singapore, given how week the Germans were in fleet units, and this fleet would act as a deterrent to Japanese ambitions, given that the Japanese had to worry about American forces in the Pacific. All this planing fell to the wayside once the French collapsed, and withdrew from the conflict. Suddenly not only had the Mediterranean become a site of major conflict with the intervention of Italy, and the cutting of the principal supply route to India and the Far East. But in addition the entry of Japanese forces into FIF, changed the threat to Malaya and Singapore, from a principally Naval one, to a combined land, sea and air threat. What had been a simple threat, do able with some strain, now was a complex threat, that required significant deployment of scarce resources. The major fleet units that were needed in the Far East, were also needed right now in the Mediterranean. And the same with troops and aircraft, the two or three Indian devisions that could have been sent to Malaya, pre war experienced troops, were now needed in Egypt and the Middle East, Iraq, to contain Italian, Iraqi and German ambitions. Aircraft that would have been surplus to requirements in Britain, and sent east, along with the engineering effort to build airfields, have all been diverted to the Middle East.
So what has changed ITTL, France has collapsed as it did IOTL, Italy has entered the war as it did IOTL. But the French collapse while similar to that of OTL, it wasn’t the same, and the British were able to give the Germans a much harder blow, and were more successful in their evacuation effort. They were also able to evacuate more equipment at lower cost, in naval resources, and were able to remove significant examples of German equipment. This has reduced the level of invasion fear in the British establishment, which at present are using said fear as a tactic to unite the British public in the war effort. While they, the establishment, are much more relaxed with Winston sending resources to the Middle East. And events there have played out much better for the British than they did IOTL, with the British established to the east of Benghazi, and beginning to get dug in, before the Germans are even begun to deploy. It’s now eleven weeks before the possible events of the Bismarck Hood encounter. Given that the butterfly wings have been beating, will the Bismarck sail on the same day, will the weather be the same, will the outcome be the same. Without the lucky hit that lead to the sinking of Hood, might that encounter have a different result. Hit by shells from both Hood and P.O.W could this result in the sinking of both Bismarck and Prinz Eugen, its a toss of the coin, which will have a major effect on the course of the war. Instead of sending just P.O.W and Repulse to Singapore, we might see other units sent instead, or additional units added to the mix including an aircraft carrier. Imagine how force Z would look if it contained, K.G.V, P.O.W, Ark Royal and Indomitable, this would give the Japanese a major headache. Do they change their plans and split the carrier force, thus reducing the weight of the attack on Pearl Harbour. Or stick to their original plan, and hope that land based aircraft can deal with the reinforced British Fleet. Enough has changed ITTL now that we are in the field where events are now very much in the hands of the author.
Re,the fate of both Hood and Ark Royal, Ark Royal without the need to run resupply convoys from Gibraltar, as they can now be far more economically run from Alexandria, will not be in the same position she was on the 14th of November 41. As for Hood, those of us who follow Drachinfel’s excellent Pod Casts on U Tube, will note that he is very much of the opinion that the sinking was a Golden BB, and some slight changes will see it not happen.
RR.
Britain which had seen the Mediterranean as a safe backwater, with the French slated to take the major role, both on land as at sea. The French Fleet was to contain any Italian ambitions, and the French Army of Africa, to sandwich the Italians in North Africa, between themselves and the British in Egypt. Thus Britain could afford to send a significant fleet to Singapore, given how week the Germans were in fleet units, and this fleet would act as a deterrent to Japanese ambitions, given that the Japanese had to worry about American forces in the Pacific. All this planing fell to the wayside once the French collapsed, and withdrew from the conflict. Suddenly not only had the Mediterranean become a site of major conflict with the intervention of Italy, and the cutting of the principal supply route to India and the Far East. But in addition the entry of Japanese forces into FIF, changed the threat to Malaya and Singapore, from a principally Naval one, to a combined land, sea and air threat. What had been a simple threat, do able with some strain, now was a complex threat, that required significant deployment of scarce resources. The major fleet units that were needed in the Far East, were also needed right now in the Mediterranean. And the same with troops and aircraft, the two or three Indian devisions that could have been sent to Malaya, pre war experienced troops, were now needed in Egypt and the Middle East, Iraq, to contain Italian, Iraqi and German ambitions. Aircraft that would have been surplus to requirements in Britain, and sent east, along with the engineering effort to build airfields, have all been diverted to the Middle East.
So what has changed ITTL, France has collapsed as it did IOTL, Italy has entered the war as it did IOTL. But the French collapse while similar to that of OTL, it wasn’t the same, and the British were able to give the Germans a much harder blow, and were more successful in their evacuation effort. They were also able to evacuate more equipment at lower cost, in naval resources, and were able to remove significant examples of German equipment. This has reduced the level of invasion fear in the British establishment, which at present are using said fear as a tactic to unite the British public in the war effort. While they, the establishment, are much more relaxed with Winston sending resources to the Middle East. And events there have played out much better for the British than they did IOTL, with the British established to the east of Benghazi, and beginning to get dug in, before the Germans are even begun to deploy. It’s now eleven weeks before the possible events of the Bismarck Hood encounter. Given that the butterfly wings have been beating, will the Bismarck sail on the same day, will the weather be the same, will the outcome be the same. Without the lucky hit that lead to the sinking of Hood, might that encounter have a different result. Hit by shells from both Hood and P.O.W could this result in the sinking of both Bismarck and Prinz Eugen, its a toss of the coin, which will have a major effect on the course of the war. Instead of sending just P.O.W and Repulse to Singapore, we might see other units sent instead, or additional units added to the mix including an aircraft carrier. Imagine how force Z would look if it contained, K.G.V, P.O.W, Ark Royal and Indomitable, this would give the Japanese a major headache. Do they change their plans and split the carrier force, thus reducing the weight of the attack on Pearl Harbour. Or stick to their original plan, and hope that land based aircraft can deal with the reinforced British Fleet. Enough has changed ITTL now that we are in the field where events are now very much in the hands of the author.
Re,the fate of both Hood and Ark Royal, Ark Royal without the need to run resupply convoys from Gibraltar, as they can now be far more economically run from Alexandria, will not be in the same position she was on the 14th of November 41. As for Hood, those of us who follow Drachinfel’s excellent Pod Casts on U Tube, will note that he is very much of the opinion that the sinking was a Golden BB, and some slight changes will see it not happen.
RR.
