Presumably the Germans still have their signals intelligence advantage and the Italians have their agent at the US embassy?
Sir John Valentine Carden survives.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
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The Black Code isn't broken until October 1941 IIRC, after the break-in at the US Embassy in Rome in September. When did British W/T procedures start to get really lax though, and was this something that O'Connor might have squelched?
I think O'Connor ITTL would probably jump on it with both feet given how it was more complete his victory was this time around. Also given they can't read the US attache messages in Alexandria yet since the embassy theft it should play out differently.
One thing to keep in mind is that this is North Africa, not Europe. Between the weather and the sand and the attrition from both, this is the one theatre in WW2 where planes weren't extremely decisive. On top of that, there really aren't that many more planes currently, the Luftwaffe mostly transferred OTL after the fall of Greece. North Africa is still seen as a sideshow, at least for now.
On top of that, the Afrika Korps at this particular time period, unless the Italian losses spooked the Germans into sending more which is unlikely with everything else going on, consisted of two divisions. Understrength divisions. Not sure how many Italians there were left in NA and how many of those were with Rommel at this point.
allanpcameron
Donor
It was dealt with in the update. The problem the British had OTL was they never captured German tanks until quite late on in North Africa. Now they know that 30mm armour of the panzers in France has been doubled, and with face hardened steel. The use of uncapped AP shells carried on for much longer OTL, whereas here, APC rounds will be available in May 1941. The need to move onto the 6-pdr will also be highlighted, and its earlier introduction will be one of the benefits ITTL.
That's good that the new 40mm APC is capable of penetrating the Panzer IV's armour and so will the 6-pdr. But the other problem is what will the Panzer IV's 75 mm do to the British tanks? Will the Germans be destroying even the Valiant tanks out of effective range of British return fire? Hopefully this TTL Africa Corp only has a handful of those types.
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If both sides are massing forces and the O'Connor is waiting for potentially key supplies such as capped AT ammunition, it does seem probable that Rommel will attempt a major assault first. However, given their rough parity in materiel, numbers advantage and more experience and acclimatisation in that theatre, it does seem very likely that the British forces come out of the resultant battle significantly better than their foe.
One thing I'm wondering is what other changes might the appearance of the improved Panzers have. Yes the better 40mm ammo plus the 6pdr will do well now but the Germans have reacted quickly.
If the British suspect a new, better tank is on the way or that the Germans will respond as quickly to the 6pdt I wonder if we see the L50 6pdr put on tanks soonish.
If the British suspect a new, better tank is on the way or that the Germans will respond as quickly to the 6pdt I wonder if we see the L50 6pdr put on tanks soonish.
marathag
Banned
The long L43 KwK40 75mm was not ordered until November 1941 and nothing built until February, 1942, and even then, not that many, receiving only 101 by September 1942, and only had 45 D,E, and F1 with the short 75mm during 1941
The dates on that may have been brought forward but with no mention of them in North Africa it is unlikely something the British have to worry about for now. The soviets on the other hand may have something to worry about.
Have to say though that I am surprised that the Germans did not go ahead with the Pz IV upgrade to the 5cm gun and instead went with the Pz III.
They did not think it was worth it , you get updated Heat rounds and then the long 75. Panzer III got the 5cm as its turret ring could not handle a high velocity 75mm ( some late models got the short 75mm in 1943 to give infantry support when the Panzer IV's all went to an anti tank role ). The only Panzer III's with long barrelled 75's are the latter STuGs in casemate mount ( 1 size bigger than the turreted version as per normal Germany practice )
Unless every last Axis soldier was captured or caught, there should be information trickling back to Rommel from the survivors of that patrol which ran into the British held oasis position...
The APC ammunition and Valiant Infantry tanks weren't around then, so Rommel's intelligence will be outdated.
The lax W/T issue was down to education and training - as I have often said it takes 3 years to fully train a continental army from a small peace time one - and that includes robust W/T procedures
So in 1941 things were not getting lax as such - they simply had not improved enough and while they did get better it was not until after Gazala (where for example 2 Brigade commanders chatted about their inability to cover the minefield between their respective 'boxs' and decided to do nothing about it - guess who 'was' listening and guess where Rommel attacked the following day?) that things really tightened up and the capture of the 621st Radio Intercept company and the death of its brilliant commander really focused efforts in applying correct procedures when it was fully learned how much information they were gleaning.
So I do not see any real changes here - it will take another year before the British army fully applies op sec - and once they did they would become the best at it effectively blinding Rommel and actually using the known skills of the German intercept ability's against them.
It was NOT British codes that were broken
but a US diplomatic code used by the American military attache to send his summaries of the briefing he received to Wahington
That gave the Fascista a full DAILY strategic breakdown - including all men and equipment numbers
as well as his very pessimistic opinions of British plans
However @Cryhavoc101 is also correct that lax tactical comms by British troops gave away some very useful but more localised info.
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