So it looks like the Greek campaign is going to be a bit longer and costlier for the Germans. In its self this is not a big game changer. Barbarossa will still go ahead as planned. The other big difference is that thanks to a small POD the RE have lots of high explosives and for a corps that is designed to build stuff they do tend to take great delight in blowing things up. Already in the story we can see the benefits of demolitions in slowing down the German advance and I can see no reason why this won't continue until the end of the campaign. Of course this wanted destruction won't be limited to roads and railways but also ports and airfields. The more the Germans are delayed the more time there is to do a realy good job of destroying infastructure.
This means that the OTL high risk invasion of Crete is now even more risky. OTL the Germans where able to launch their attack relatively quickly after the fall of main land Greece. ITTL the delays to the campaign and the further delays in getting the airfields repaired and getting the necessary supplies in place will mean that the defenders of Crete will have more time to prepare and IMO have the opertunity to be reinforced and resupplied (3 to 4 weeks could see captured Italian equipment from north Africa ships to Crete or even a convoy rushed through from India with some British equipment). Add to this that I suspect that more quality forces will make it out of Greece with more equipment then Crete has just become a very tough nut to creak indeed. Nad that's without taking into account the handful of Matilda's in situ which German air recon is likely to discover pre attack.
I feel that given the low chances of success for Operation Mercury it could and likely would be cancelled leaving the Luftwaffe to keep Crete suppressed as an offensive base much like Malta ( possible in 1941 but becoming more problematic once the US joins the war). If that's the case (or the invasion is the disaster for the Germans it's shaping up to be ITTL) The Greek forces would IMO quickly be equipped with British equipment. No doubt a token force of Greeks would be sent to finnish of the Axis in North Africa. For the rest some would be sent back to Greece to organise resistance groups (to the detriment of the communists) while the rest are going to be agitating for offensive action (much to the delight of Winston who will be cheering them on in the hopes of his cherished Balkan campaign). I could see some of the greek island being invaded giving valuable experience for TTLs version of Operation Acrobat/Husky and an invasion of mainland Greece could be on the cards for the Allies as either an adjunct of, or instead of the Italian Campaign.
Of course once the British realise that the Germans aren't going to invade Crete or are quickly defeated as looks likely, then the Matilda's on the island would be replaced by more capable tanks. But what then, perhaps a well earned retirement for the Matilda 1's in the tropical sun of Malaya
, to see out the rest of their service quietly policing the Empire 😉
This means that the OTL high risk invasion of Crete is now even more risky. OTL the Germans where able to launch their attack relatively quickly after the fall of main land Greece. ITTL the delays to the campaign and the further delays in getting the airfields repaired and getting the necessary supplies in place will mean that the defenders of Crete will have more time to prepare and IMO have the opertunity to be reinforced and resupplied (3 to 4 weeks could see captured Italian equipment from north Africa ships to Crete or even a convoy rushed through from India with some British equipment). Add to this that I suspect that more quality forces will make it out of Greece with more equipment then Crete has just become a very tough nut to creak indeed. Nad that's without taking into account the handful of Matilda's in situ which German air recon is likely to discover pre attack.
I feel that given the low chances of success for Operation Mercury it could and likely would be cancelled leaving the Luftwaffe to keep Crete suppressed as an offensive base much like Malta ( possible in 1941 but becoming more problematic once the US joins the war). If that's the case (or the invasion is the disaster for the Germans it's shaping up to be ITTL) The Greek forces would IMO quickly be equipped with British equipment. No doubt a token force of Greeks would be sent to finnish of the Axis in North Africa. For the rest some would be sent back to Greece to organise resistance groups (to the detriment of the communists) while the rest are going to be agitating for offensive action (much to the delight of Winston who will be cheering them on in the hopes of his cherished Balkan campaign). I could see some of the greek island being invaded giving valuable experience for TTLs version of Operation Acrobat/Husky and an invasion of mainland Greece could be on the cards for the Allies as either an adjunct of, or instead of the Italian Campaign.
Of course once the British realise that the Germans aren't going to invade Crete or are quickly defeated as looks likely, then the Matilda's on the island would be replaced by more capable tanks. But what then, perhaps a well earned retirement for the Matilda 1's in the tropical sun of Malaya
, to see out the rest of their service quietly policing the Empire 😉
