Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

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Churchill describes the original timeline German victory on Crete as 'Pyrrhic':
Winston Churchill said:
...In all, the enemy must have suffered casualties in killed and wounded of well over fifteen thousand. About 170 troop-carrying aircraft were lost or heavily damaged. But the price they paid for their victory cannot be measured by the slaughter...
...the 7th Airborne Division was the only one which Goering had. This division was destroyed in the Battle of Crete. Upwards of five thousand of his bravest men were killed, and the whole structure of this organisation was irretrievably broken...
...The German losses of their highest class fighting men removed a formidable air and parachute weapon from all further part in immediate events in the Middle East. Goering gained only a Pyrrhic victory in Crete; for the forces he expended there might easily have given him Cyprus, Iraq, Syria, and even perhaps Persia. These troops were the very kind needed to overrun large wavering regions where no serious resistance would have been encountered...
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- The Second World War volume 3, 'Crete: The Battle'

Okay, it's Churchill so there may be some - ahem - poetic licence, general exaggeration, and rounding of figures, but he seems to have been genuinely pleased that the Germans used up the 7th airborne division on Crete instead of making mischief elsewhere...
 

lgkmas

What is worse, IIRC, is that the Tpt planes were staffed by many instructors in navigation, multi-engine operations, etc. The loss of both the aircraft that were used for this training and the loss of the staff of the schools was a setback that affected the Luftwaffe for a long time. I don't know if they ever recovered from it.
 

kelgar04

lgkmas said:
What is worse, IIRC, is that the Tpt planes were staffed by many instructors in navigation, multi-engine operations, etc. The loss of both the aircraft that were used for this training and the loss of the staff of the schools was a setback that affected the Luftwaffe for a long time. I don't know if they ever recovered from it.
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I don't think they ever did especially if you throw in the attrition on the eastern front and I'm not just talking about death by enemy action (USSR sucked at this early in the war) but if you take into account the intensity of operations you'd see a great many mechanical casualties and accidents on the books as well which would kill a great many more pilots and also ground crews. On top of this since the Germans didn't rotate their best pilots back the same way the UK and the Commonwealth did means that they will be suffering a great experience loss.

Also before Allan comes and glares at me you saw something similar in the way the Germans had their Armoured units outrunning their supply lines in both France, North Africa and Eastern Europe. It ends up with the tanks in an invidious position if you narrow in on the maintenance side since putting that much stress on it means breakdowns happen more frequently and at the worst possible time usually requiring a major overhaul.
 
11-15 April 1941. Olympus-Aliakmon Line. Greece.
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    • allanpcameron

    Donor
    11-15 April 1941. Olympus-Aliakmon Line. Greece.

    The Australian 16th Infantry Brigade had taken up positions to cover the Veroia Pass, but the advance of the German army down the Florina valley had caused Generals Wilson and Blamey to order them to fall back to the Olympus-Aliakmon Line. The presence of the Cruiser tanks of the 4th Hussars and the armoured cars and Bren gun carriers of the New Zealand Divisional Cavalry meant that the Australians were able to use their transport during the night of 12/13 April to move south, through Katerini to take up positions along the river Aliakmon in the vicinity of Servia. The German advance towards the Aliakmon river wasn’t fast, the capture of Salonika so quickly was obviously causing them to have to re-organise themselves.

    On the morning of 13 April the first attempt to cross the Aliakmon from the direction of Salonika was opposed by the New Zealand Divisional Cavalry with the excellent artillery support. On 14 April, the 4th Hussars were ordered to pass through the New Zealanders and rendezvous with the 3rd Hussars at Ellason, where they would hold as General Blamey’s mobile reserve. During the day, German pressure mounted and Blamey ordered the Divisional Cavalry to withdraw towards Katerini, and then back behind the Olympus-Aliakmon Line, which had been accomplished by darkness on 14 April.

    The ANZACs had been given a length of line to hold, which for two Divisions was too long, but Blamey was able to assure Wilson that it was a strong position, that naturally lent itself to the defence. The fact that General Papagos had given orders to the Greek Western and Central Macedonian Armies to begin withdrawing to a line conforming the with ANZACs, meant that the passes that protected the road through Kastoria and Grevena were crucial. Blamey had, on request, detached an anti-tank regiment to come under the command of the Greek 20th Division at the Klisoura and Siastia passes.

    At first, when the first elements of the Greek army started to fall back as planned, the British and Dominion forces believed that the unkempt and footsore Greeks looked defeated. The reality of the way the Greeks had been fighting the Italians since the previous year had indeed exhausted them, and they were in dire need of rest and recuperation, but the withdrawal was going as planned. When General Wilson had considered pulling back from the Olympus-Aliakmon Line, he had been reassured that if the Greek troops could hold the passes for another couple of days, then the two Greek armies would be merged and be well capable of holding the extension of the Line that Papagos had outlined. General Wilson took some persuading, but with the slow progress of the German advance down the Florina valley, and with Blamey’s assessment of the strength of the positions that the ANZACs were holding, he agreed to keep the ANZACs on the line, in the meantime.

    Wilson did however ask the Royal Engineers to begin looking at preparing positions around Thermopylae for the ANZACs to fall back towards. He also requested that Brigadier Charrington send a force of tanks up the road to Kastoria to keep it open. When Charrington got this request, he consulted with the commander of 3rd Hussars, who detached one of his Squadrons, with orders to position one troop of tanks at each of the passes to provide the Greeks with extra anti-tank capability. Finally, Wilson gave General Blamey notice that he should begin preparing orders for the withdrawal towards Thermopylae, orders that should be in place by 16 April.

    The arrival at Larisa of the Australian 17th Brigade, with the missing Battalion from 19th Brigade, on 14 April gave General Blamey his full two Divisions. The 2/11th Battalion were ordered to move north immediately to join the rest of their Brigade. Brigadier Savage’s 17th Brigade were initially to move to Ellason, where they would, along with the Hussars, provide Blamey with a potent reserve. However, General Wilson was still worried about a Greek collapse. He ordered Blamey to have the 17th Brigade hold at Grevena, to protect the left flank just in case. Blamey was unhappy at this, it undermined his own desire for a strong reserve. To allow 17th Brigade time to gather themselves after their journey from Athens, he asked Brigadier Savage to reconnoitre the situation between Kalabaka and Grevena, while the men stayed at Larisa to give them time to recover from one journey before setting off on another.

    General Freyberg, commanding the 2nd New Zealand Division, which had been in position longest, had reported that his engineers’ initial attempts to blow the railway tunnel and road at Platamon had only been partially successful. A Royal Engineer party arrived on the morning of 15 April with enough explosives and, crucially, the ability to place them deep enough to complete the task. By late afternoon the demolitions were complete. German pressure all along the ANZAC positions was increasing, with the added problem that the weather, which had limited the activities of the Luftwaffe, had cleared sufficiently for aerial attacks to become more frequent. Despite this General Freyberg was confident with his dispositions, and was able to report that every German attack had been repulsed during the day, though he expected that the main effort would happen the next day.
    WH2GreeP014a.jpg

    The map is from the Official New Zealand History here
     
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    • GarethC

    GarethC

    You know, I don't think I've seen a TL with this much depth on the Greece campaign before, and I have to say that I am really enjoying the exploration of a new bit of WWII as well as the excellent writing @allanpcameron.
     

    kelgar04

    Looks like the earlier fallback is helping somewhat on top of this I imagine there has been more spade work done to secure positions and prepare for bugout.
     

    pjmidd

    kelgar04 said:
    Looks like the earlier fallback is helping somewhat on top of this I imagine there has been more spade work done to secure positions and prepare for bugout.
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    Earlier? If anything the Germans are a day behind schedule. The Allies have had a bit more time to improve positions and they are doing a better job at denying material to the Axis so its looking good for a more controlled bug out ( Its all a holding action given the Axis strength ). Net result, less losses for the Imperial forces , more Greek's fighting on and the Germans in need of more R&R, the ability to try for Crete on the bounce will almost certainly have been greatly impaired by the time the mainland falls.
     

    kelgar04

    pjmidd said:
    Earlier? If anything the Germans are a day behind schedule. The Allies have had a bit more time to improve positions and they are doing a better job at denying material to the Axis so its looking good for a more controlled bug out ( Its all a holding action given the Axis strength ). Net result, less losses for the Imperial forces , more Greek's fighting on and the Germans in need of more R&R, the ability to try for Crete on the bounce will almost certainly have been greatly impaired by the time the mainland falls.
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    I meant the Greeks were falling back earlier than expected and in fairly good order too rather than holding hell or high water wasn't reffer to Axis forces when I made that statement.
     
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    Icedaemon

    Icedaemon

    As I understand it, the main Axis strength in this campaign is in the amount of available airpower. That being the case, are the British gaining air superiority currently in North Africa, or is such a vast bulk of the RAF still on home defense duty as to make matching the nazis in any theatre currently impossible?
     
    15 April 1941. Agedabia, Libya.
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    • allanpcameron

    Donor
    15 April 1941. Agedabia, Libya.

    During the previous two weeks there had been a series of fire fights between British and German patrols between their two main positions at El Agheila and Sirte. In the first week of April a number of strong German ‘reconnaissance in force’ had been encountered with various outcomes. General O’Connor wasn’t completely sure if these contacts had convinced his opposite number in the Afrika Korps that the British were too strong for a full out attack, but it certainly looked that way.

    While the British had pulled most of their forces back to the main line at El Agheila, all of the British reconnaissance efforts were showing a continuing build up of forces, both Italian and German in the vicinity of Sirte. The Quartermasters in XIII Corps and back in Egypt had worked out that it would take at least another few weeks before the German forces would be fully deployed and ready for action. General O’Connor was keen to get on with the job that had begun with Operation Compass. The next phase, which had been given the code name Operation Brevity, was, like Compass, meant to be a relatively limited offensive. O’Connor’s planners had been working on building up enough stocks of water, petrol, ammunition, food and all the other essentials, for a week long offensive.

    The Royal Navy were still wary of using Benghazi’s port, the Luftwaffe had been doing their best to close it down. Some small coastal ships made the journey under cover of darkness, and a couple of destroyers would bring in essential stores, if necessary, on a fast run. The Italian built road along the coast from Tobruk to Benghazi was the main source of supplies coming forward, and the RASC were trying their best to keep supplies moving along it. Much of this work had to be done at night, for despite the best efforts of the RAAF No 3 Squadron’s Hurricanes, it was impossible to protect the whole of the route.

    With the conflict in Greece on the tipping point, General O’Connor knew that Wavell’s eyes were fixed over there, as was the RAF and Royal Navy. There were two issues that concerned him most. The first was the need for more artillery. If, as suspected, the Germans and Italians had been digging in, then he would need the Royal Artillery to be as strong as possible, and have enough shells with them for a lengthy and intense bombardment.

    The Indian Motor Brigade had no integrated artillery regiment, and 22nd Armoured Brigade also had less than the desired amount. The 2nd Armoured Division’s Support Group were split between Libya and Greece, so the 22nd Armoured Brigade had only half their required guns provided by 2nd RHA. Only the 16th Brigade had its full complement, provided by 8th Field Regiment RA equipped with sixteen 25-pdrs.

    The need for more artillery regiments for the operation had General O’Connor providing 51st Field Regiment RA from XIII Corps, and he had persuaded Wavell to allocate him the artillery regiments of 1st Cavalry Division (104th, 106th and 107th Royal Horse Artillery). Each of these regiments were short of one battery which had been retained in Palestine. The 104th RHA was now training with the Indian Motor Brigade. The 106th RHA were assigned to 22nd Armoured Brigade. Brigadier Gott's 2nd Support Group would have the batteries of 2nd RHA not in Greece. General O’Connor had split up the 107th RHA to bring the other regiments up to full strength. 51st Field Regiment and the battery of 7th Medium Regiment (the rest of the regiment was in Greece) were under the direct command of General Michael Gambier-Parry who, as 2nd Armoured Division’s Commanding Officer, the operation would be led by.

    The second issue that concerned General O’Connor was the appearance of the German Panzer III and IVs. Given the information from the German tanks captured before Dunkirk, it seemed that the Germans had added more armour to both tanks and had fitted an improved 50mm gun to the Panzer III. This gun was capable of penetrating the Valiant tanks at a much greater distance than the old 37mm gun. If the German anti-tank units had also switched to a more effective gun, then it would make the job of 22nd Armoured Brigade that much more difficult. The chance to examine some wrecked Panzer IIIs had also shown that the additional armour added was face-hardened steel. The normal 2-pdr ammunition was struggling to cope with this. O’Connor had been assured that an initial batch of Armoured Piercing Capped (APC) shells for the 2-pdr had been included in the convoy which was arriving in Egypt currently. This was something that the tanks and anti-tank gunners would need as a priority before the operation got underway.

    It would likely take the best part of two weeks for the new ammunition to arrive. The Royal Navy had been contacted to see if they would bring this cargo as a priority to Tobruk, then the RASC could bring it forward. The idea of shipping it directly to Benghazi had been considered, but this had been rejected as too dangerous. It would another six weeks before the next convoy arrived from Britain with more APC shells, therefore, the possibility of losing the most of what they had if anything happened to the Royal Navy’s ships coming to Benghazi was too much of a gamble.

    With enough artillery, and his tanks having a reasonable chance to take on the German panzers, General O’Connor was feeling more positive about the next phase of his campaign to rid North Africa of the Italians and Germans. The capture of Addis Ababa had meant that General Cunningham had freed up a South African Brigade which was also arriving in Egypt, with the rest of the Division to follow. The fact that General Smuts had managed to get the terms of their service to include the whole of Africa had been a relief. 4th Indian Division, 7th Armoured and the Australian 7th Division would soon all be available for the next, more difficult operation, which would give O’Connor the ability to go all the way to Tripoli, and if necessary, beyond. If only he could finish it before the full heat of the summer arrived!
    northAfrica.jpg
     
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    • Thoresby

    allanpcameron said:
    The Royal Navy were still wary of using Benghazi’s port, the Luftwaffe had been doing their best to close it down. Some small coastal ships made the journey under cover of darkness, and a couple of destroyers would bring in essential stores, if necessary, on a fast run. The Italian built road along the coast from Tobruk to Benghazi was the main source of supplies coming forward, and the RASC were trying their best to keep supplies moving along it. Much of this work had to be done at night, for despite the best efforts of the RAAF No 3 Squadron’s Hurricanes, it was impossible to protect the whole of the route.
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    Without air superiority I can't see Brevity having anything like the success of Compass even against the Italians, never mind the Germans. Still a three division attack is nothing to be sniffed at.
     

    kelgar04

    Well, there are more tanks and Arty than there was compared to OTL but the lack of anything resembling air support is worry heck some Hurries would be very welcome right now heck some Fulmers flown off an aircraft carrier would be welcome right now.
     

    allanpcameron

    Donor
    One of the changes from OTL is that most of what was contained in the Tiger Convoy has been dispatched on the most recent Winston Special. Therefore 7th Armoured Division will be getting Valiant I Infantry Tanks, and the 50 crated Hurricanes which the RAF are in dire need of. Part of the delay to this Operation Brevity (thought it was easier to keep the OTL names, the objective is to advance to Nofilia) was waiting for that convoy to arrive mid-April. Which should allow Battleaxe to go onto Sirte, then Crusader to reach Tripoli, as the forces build up.
     

    kelgar04

    allanpcameron said:
    One of the changes from OTL is that most of what was contained in the Tiger Convoy has been dispatched on the most recent Winston Special. Therefore 7th Armoured Division will be getting Valiant I Infantry Tanks, and the 50 crated Hurricanes which the RAF are in dire need of. Part of the delay to this Operation Brevity (thought it was easier to keep the OTL names, the objective is to advance to Nofilia) was waiting for that convoy to arrive mid-April. Which should allow Battleaxe to go onto Sirte, then Crusader to reach Tripoli, as the forces build up.
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    Damn that will be a much-needed boost


    What's the German and Italian supply situation like compared to OTL?
     
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