Yeah this basically, in the Mineira one there was a lack of support from the population alongside a traitor in their mix while the Baiana did have support of the people and even a few of the lites but they were crushed quickly before it could really spread.It's hard to know, but unlikely. It's too far away for us to have anything concrete.
this is a possibility but it would be something in the future, the author did not even reach the year 1600. But the otl had important reasons for the failures of these two revolts.
for sure or some other bizarre thing. but I find it difficult to predict at the moment without seeing how the colony and the rest of the world will develop in the future.