Yeah I defo see a colony like that being something that's very plausible, but I defo don't think the colony could be a long term thing. I don't think anyone in ittl is thinking of the long term tho.
I think that in the same way as in otl, not all colonies will survive in the long run. South Africa was Dutch and then became English, for example. At the moment the Swedes have a port in the region. We now have to see and wait if they will be able to hold the port or not.
Yeah that's true. I agree with ppl saying that its not sustainable, but I defo understand why they're doing this in the first place. They may lose out at the end, but hey its not like they know what'll happen in the future.
Well we will have several wild cards in the future like the Dutch. Apart from the heavyweights like France, Portugal, Spain and England (and in the future Holland depending on how they do in the next 50 years) the rest have a much harder time securing the colonies. But even so we have many variables to ensure that certain things will work out like in otl (things like unions of crowns, revolts and wars among other factors).
I'd wager the fledgling Swedish colonial empire is in a very precarious position
Not unlike the attempts at colonization by the Scandinavian powers in the OTL
- they're risking antagonizing the Portuguese by setting up shop in South Africa and breaking into Asia, their rivalry with Denmark is unresolved, and they've made an enemy of Spain by seizing the island of Santiago. All three powers have colonial possessions relatively close to Sweden's and can therefore probably be easily enticed into a three-pronged anti-Swedish alliance.
Yes that's true, but it's not like these three powers like each other. Portugal and Spain have a better relationship due to their history, but even so it's not like they love each other. Spain has several enemies (from the English and French to the Ottomans) and Sweden in OTL became an ally of the French during its heyday, so asking for protection from France could be a way for the Swedish colony empire to survive. Denmark has enemies in its south with the German kingdoms of the north, in addition to possible disputes with England in the future.If the Swedish empire survives it will either be smart diplomacy or they will get stronger in the coming decades.
The Swedes have also also ruined their friendship with Poland-Lithuania by abandoning them for a separate treaty with Russia in the Livonian War.
I have the impression that Poland is going to have a worse life than at OTL. But maybe I'm wrong and a king in the future will be able to break the strength of the Polish nobility.
Their best bet is to make sure and stay on friendly terms with Russia, figure out a peaceful Scandinavian arrangement with Denmark (or subdue them), maybe make allies out of England, the Netherlands, and France, and refrain from any further toe-stepping in regards to Spain and Portugal.
It's a good tactic, with the conquest of Denmark probably being the best idea (giving them more population and better access to the Atlantic.). They have to practice realpolitik basically. This will also depend on whether they will have as many soldier kings as in OTL.
Tbf I wonder what will the Dutch's role be in this era ittl. Would they be part of the slave trade (they can supply slaves to the French considering that the Portuguese may not want to do so) and the Dutch having a bunch of African colonies would make sense, with them controlling land around the west coast of Africa.
I think they are going to be the biggest wild card. I see an alliance with France as quite possible, especially if they have a division of spheres of power in the agreement (France, as always, wants to reach the Rhine river and the region they want loses much of its value with the destruction made by spain compared to the region that is revolting). Many of the products that generated wealth for the ITTL netherlands are in the hands of the French. An alliance with England or trying to stay neutral and playing the powers against each other is also possible. In otl, the Dutch and Portuguese were allies until the union with the Spaniards. With the Dutch becoming extremely rich having a monopoly on the sale of Portuguese sugar (something they do not have in ITTL. In OTL the sugar trade boosted the economy of Portugal and contributed to the upsurge of the Dutch market. Despite the Dutch having other economic areas such as a strong textile industry). Then they can try to attack France, Portugal, England, Spain. one of the Scandinavian powers or have a different way of acting.
Also what'll happen to India? I defo hope that we get a split India and we get a Dravidian country in the south that's propped up by European powers. Hell they can have like Hinduism with significant amounts of Christian influence or something like that.
That I don't know, India can be conquered by a single power, be divided between several powers or have several puppet kingdoms.