Dancing To A New Tune
Jacques Arthuys, Leading Figure of the Union de la Droite
A Republic In Trouble
The period in France following the Two Rivers Crisis was to see ever further political chaos as the hot seat of the President of the Council changed on a seemingly monthly basis. Ultimately, the most significant impact of the Two Rivers Crisis in France was to be the introduction of the Union de la Droite as a fully-functioning part of the political establishment, an equal partner in numerous governmental coalitions and increasingly a potential leading player in French politics. However, one thing which was clear to all was that the system, following an extended period of post-Great War stability, had been firmly thrown into chaos. The result of this constant shifting back and forth between various unstable political coalitions from across the political spectrum was to see the empowerment of a post which had ordinarily been placed on the back foot during the Third Republic - the Presidency under Gaston Doumergue. Given the intensely unstable political situation, Doumergue strove to support the management of public affairs with leftist values while maintaining a conservative guideline - with the result that he was able to find a working relationship with almost every single one of his counterparts during his years as President of France. An affable and courteous man, he proved a deft hand at managing the political situation, supporting successive government changes while ensuring a constant adherence to his own principals, in the process amassing a level of popularity with the general public which few in the country could boast. However, the one faction which Doumergue would find overtly hostile to his leadership, and which would serve to undermine multiple coalitions, was the ardent arch-Catholic Union de la Droite, who vocally denounced the President for his Protestantism, his political intriguing and what they perceived as his clear bias towards the left. In fact, Doumergue was the only Protestant head of state that France had known since the conversion of Henri IV more than four-hundred and fifty years prior, and as such was in a position to generate considerable acrimony from the Catholic Right who saw a Protestant spider seated amidst a web of politics in Paris, spinning conflict and chaos all in the name of maintaining his own power. While a crude twisting of the facts, there was some truth to these charges, as Doumergue was able to shape the political situation according to his wishes, toppling Presidents of the Council when they challenged him and constantly shifting his overt support between coalition members on the basis of who could grant him what he wanted. Ultimately, a measure of stability would be restored in early 1936 with the ascension of Louis Barthou as President of the Council of Ministers. A close Doumergue ally from the Democratic Alliance, Barthou was a trusted partner who Doumergue finally felt held sufficient power to back for the leadership position, forming a relatively stable coalition behind him which was able to begin bringing order to the chaos. The restoration of a moderate, republican, government which rapidly showed itself to hold little regard for the political extremes and dictated a policy of moderation and establishmentarianism swiftly drew outrage from both the left and right. Léon Blum's repeated failures to form a functioning government coalition after his initial dismissal in 1932 had allowed for the ascension of more radical elements of the SFIO who questioned why they should listen to the ramblings of the bourgeoisie, and not bring about a worker's republic. Headed by the radical Albert Treint, this faction called for the Communists of the SFIO to "pluck the socialist poultry" from their own party - in effect demanding a total shift in policy onto a path of hardline Communism and a purge of their more moderate members. Further enflamed by the removal of Trotsky and resultant ideological consolidation of the Soviet Republic, Treint was to prove a peerless provocateur who waged an open war against the older and more moderate voices of Blum, Souvarine and Frossard. The result was an open brawl within the left-wing between moderate and radical wings, which soon escalated to clashes between associated street gangs - although it was not long before this conflict further engulfed the ever combative right-wing ligues of the UD, who leapt at the chance to bash in the heads of Communists. A similar combativeness had spread to the right, where a key dividing point within the Union de la Droite, namely over whether to adopt a Republican or Monarchist outlook, resulted in near-constant factional strife within the party. Had it not been for the deft if merciless political prowess of the industrialist-ideologue Jacques Arthuys who rapidly rose to challenge the power held by Maurice Pujo and Charles Maurras, the party might well have splintered apart under the pressure. Possessing money, a dedicated following which counted far-right stalwarts like Georges Valois, Hubert Bourgin and Charles Albert amongst their number, and contacts to well-positioned military figures through Marshal Louis Franchet d'Espèrey's Chief-of-Staff Francois de la Rocque, Arthuys was able to set forth a far more clean-cut image than well-known radical bomb-throwers like Maurras and Pujo. Over the course of the 1930s he was able to use his wealth to make contacts with the Duc de Guise, Jean d'Orléans, who all French monarchists had by and large come to support, while looping past Mauras - adopting what elements of Mauras' ideology he liked and discarding what he didn't, while wholly sidelining the former firebrand by the time of Barthou's appointment in 1936. With his position increasingly secure internally, Jacques Arthuys was able to shift his attentions towards undermining the Barthou Government and Doumergue while cleverly working to improve the popularity of the monarchy amongst the French populace through a series of publicity campaigns which utilized not only the monarchy's image and his own, to mention nothing of his growing flock of famous supporters', but also brought the Catholic Church itself in to begin changing the public outlook. As the geopolitical circumstance began to shift in his favor, Arthuys made the final necessary preparations for his planned rise to power (7).
If French politics were chaotic, then French society could only be considered anarchic during these years. As had been the case for centuries, the key fracture point in French society lay between the urban and rural, Paris and the Hinterlands, the bourgeoisie and the farmer, but during the first half of the 1930s these divisions were to find ever more internal divisions and uncertainty. In the industrial cities of northern and eastern France, foremost amongst them Paris, a vibrant and combative working class culture re-emerged from the doldrums of suppression with a wide variety of social organizations, from sports associations and youth organizations to neighborhood clubs and reading groups, aiding in the mobilization of society to active politics. Frequent labor unrest, and the resultant shocks to the economy, were to engender enmity with the conservative rural populace who nevertheless found themselves increasingly drawn to the culture and excitement of the cities as consumer goods, foremost amongst them the radio, became available to the general public. The veterans of the Great War, more so in most other countries, were to remain a cohesive societal force in France with veterans meeting up on a regular basis to reminisce on their achievements and sacrifices while lamenting the state of their great nation. Notably these organizations, which had been so politicized from the start, increasingly found themselves decoupled from the political infighting, instead mostly serving as important civil society organizations after the most radical elements shifted their attentions to the street gangs and ligues which remained deeply engaged in the politics of the period. During this period French literature would find itself invigorated by the presence of a broad spectrum of talented thinkers and writers who presented a complex and interconnected web of theories about how to shape French society for the future. A common theme in these years was a feeling of anarchic uncertainty as the weaknesses of the Third Republic became clear to all, while a clear warning of what would happen should the Peoples of France fail to find unity was demonstrated by the constant crises faced by the British across the Channel. While the economy remained robust in its growth, and increasing economic ties to the Latin Bloc countries presented new and exciting economic opportunities, there was little doubt that the massive empire carved out by Germany in Eastern Europe placed France at a considerable disadvantage. While Briand and Stresemann had done much to ease tensions between France and Germany, an underlying current of unease could not help but influence French society. In particular the German openness towards the Soviet Republic and Communism in general was to cause much consternation and fear in France, with educators and right-wing ideologues publicly condemning the proliferation of German Proletkult works, both translated from Russian and German originals, which resulted in a small but vibrant subculture primarily centered on Lille and other surrounding industrial towns and cities. The outbreak of open violence during the years between 1934-1937 between leftist factions and far-right ligues, with street fights, riots and open clashes, was to prove a sign of the worries marking French society - with many condemning the violence as a sign of the failings of the Republic. During these years the monarchist movement, increasingly dominated by Jacques Arthuys, would shift its focus towards a more mainstream appeal which saw not only the cooptation of the Catholic Church as a platform, but also efforts to appeal to the urban working class and the petit bourgeoisie, bringing a new dynamic to the societal tumult. As priests in urban parishes began to preach the word of monarchism and integralism, a profusion of social services under the banner of Jean d'Orléans, often backed by the non-partisan support of veterans organizations, began to provide food, housing and community to segments of the urban populace who had been lost in the mi. As a result, growing level of sympathy for the monarchy now began to emerge in the bastion of leftist sentiment - the northern cities. While Charles Maurras and other rabid demagogues launched scathing attacks upon anything and everything which stood in opposition to Catholic Monarchist Supremacy, a far more cultured, respectable and insidious branch of the right under Arthuys made the argument for why the restoration of the Monarchy would resolve all of French society's ills. Paul Claudel, the well-known poet and dramatist, would present an appealing image of devout Catholicism through his works which received significant sponsorship from both the Church and Arthuys while the writers of the Jeune Droite, who had largely become enamored with Arthuys, presented article after article strengthening the Arthuysian ideology which was being formed during these years. Marrying populist elements of land reforms, social reforms and collective ownership with a firmly hierarchical, devoutly Catholic and monarchist framework which retained a veneer of democracy, Arthuys formed one of the more appealing visions of monarchism to emerge in France. Notably he distanced himself from Maurras' public support of a violent overthrow of government and sought to moderate the movement's more overtly destructive tendencies. In effect, Arthuys was responsible for mainstreaming the Union de la Droite more than any other, successfully integrating a number of disparate right-wing parties and draining support away from Republican right wing, such that by the time of Barthou's appointment the UD had emerged as the single largest force on the right, dwarfing all contenders (8).
Given the overweening power of the German military-industrial complex, military and defense policy were of absolute critical importance to French politics. During the 1920s this had resulted in the well-known if controversial, for his role near the end of the Great War, Marshal Phillippe Pétain in the formulation of military policy. A strong proponent of a strong military in the aftermath of the Great War, Pétain envisioned a large armored land force and an expansive air force capable of going toe-to-toe with the rapidly developing German military, but given the economic exigencies of the period most of these plans were placed on the back burner, with only a piecemeal adoption of various defense plans proposed by a variety of prominent French marshals and generals securing approval. Much effort during this period would go into the incorporation of Wallonia into French military plans and the rebuilding of the border defenses with Germany and particularly Italy, where the threat of Communist spill-over across the border led to what at times seemed like an over-investment in the region. During the 1920s Pétain maintained a decent working relationship with the government, at varying times serving as Minister of War, Head of the Supreme Council on National Defense and in his last appointment before retirement was able to secure his appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the French Air Force which he had been amongst the most ardent supporters of in prior years. Under Pétain's guidance, the French Air Force was to develop into a robust and well-managed wing of the military specializing in aerial defense - particularly fighter aircrafts, scouting and ground combat. Pétain's retirement was to coincide almost perfectly with the start of military troubles for the French. In a move aimed to allow for an inflated armored force, the French military procurement offices had decided to build their new forces with cheap, poor-quality steel which was to prove insufficient to the task first in the Georgian Campaign and, more worryingly for the French, in the struggle to suppress the Indochinese Revolt. The incoming left-wing government under Édouard Herriot was to lead a shift in funding for the military, with a significant reduction in particularly colonial forces undertaken to help finance some of the various state programs being undertaken by the left-wing government. That government's collapse in response to the Indochinese Revolt and the rotating carousel of governments which followed were to throw the French military into disarray as they struggled to find any sort of partner to cooperate with. Ultimately it would be the re-appointment of Philippe Pétain as Minister of War which helped bring a level of stability to the matter, serving in the post in successive governments uninterrupted from 1934-1937 on the basis of his strong bipartisan reputation and clear unwillingness to involve himself in non-military issues. Most significantly, his reputation as neither an extreme Catholic or Monarchist, as contrasted with many of his peers, made him a safe bet for all Republican factions to support in the office. During this period Pétain was able to initiate a significant reorganization of the military's resources, reintroduce large-scale military training maneuvers, expanded the military's training period and recruited large numbers of specialists and non-commissioned officers in a bid to re-introduce a level of professionalism to the force following its weakening in the early years of the decade. With Marie-Eugène Debeney as Chief of the General Staff during the 1920s, Pétain had been able to maintain tight control over the military even when not a part of it - Debeney having been one of Pétain's closest friends and allies in the army, but in the early 1930s Debeney had been replaced first by the long-time colonial administrator and Marshal Louis Hubert Lyautey, who was in turn replaced by the incredibly talented Marshal Louis Franchet d'Espèrey in 1934. Pétain's greatest rival after Foch's departure from the military and an ardent ultra-royalist with strong ties to the Arthuysian movement within the Union de la Droite in the form of his Chief-of-Staff Francois de la Rocque, Pétain and d'Espèrey would prove desperately combative towards each other, with a resultant formation of factions within the Military. It is worth noting at this point the role d'Espèrey had adopted in the years since the Great War, serving on positions of importance primarily in France proper with stints as commander of the forces on the Italian Border, as Chief of the General Staff and as Vice President of the Superior War Council - in effect the two single-most important positions in the Army. In this time he had emerged as the leading light of the conservative wing of the military, as contrasted with the bi-partisan, non-political Pétain, and maintained close contacts with the august Marshal Foch even after the latter's departure from the army. While Pétain and d'Espèrey's relationship would deteriorate to the point of barely being able to make it through a meeting without one or the other storming out, the pair would prove crucial to further strengthening French military power, working to maintain France's grip on Indochina and greatly improving not only the training and planning capabilities of the military but also significantly improving the quality of equipment and vehicles available to the Army (9).
An important underlying current to all of these developments was the bitter and bloody Indochinese Revolt which was waged throughout the 1930s as the constant swings of fortune in the conflict had dire repercussions at home. The escalation of the conflict following the initial unrest and the Tonkin Rising and the concerted efforts to suppress the uprising over the following couple years, culminating in the reconquest of Tonkin, had greatly escalated the immense resources needed to fight the conflict and increasingly turned the conflict from an ordinary colonial conflict into the gravest challenge to French authority since the Great War. While the initial year or so of conflict had seen soldiers on the ground primarily from the French Foreign Legion and various colonial auxiliaries, as the scale of the war grew the French state found it necessary to call upon the French Army itself, setting the stage for what would prove to be an ever more costly debt paid in French blood. With the appointment of Charles Huntziger and the subsequent successes in reclaiming Hanoi and large sections of Tonkin, the mood in France improved greatly as the prospect of bringing to an end a costly and long-lasting conflict rose to the fore. It would be a failure to capitalize on the ending of the First Conventional Phase of the Revolt which was to once more send French politics into chaos. While the Two Rivers Crisis resulted in important governmental shifts, it was to be the subsequent fighting in Indochina which would end more than a dozen different French governments. With every failure a scapegoat would need sacrificing, with the result that before long it was Huntizger's head on the chopping block. However, Huntziger's removal was to be but the first in a rotating carousel of French generals to ruin their reputations in Indochina. As the scale of the fighting exploded in scale once more with the arrival of Chinese Communists from across the border, the drain on French manpower grew increasingly worrying. While the French were able to make-do with auxiliaries and professional soldiers, a point eventually came when talk of whether to call upon French conscript forces to aid in the fighting rose to the fore. A bitterly contested topic, discussion of the issue would consume much of the political debate during 1935 and early 1936 until the rise of the Barthou Government saw a decisive abandonment of any talk of conscripts fighting in the Vietnamese jungles. However, while the outbreak of the Japanese Civil War in March of 1936 was viewed with worry and concern, it would take until the October Revolution for the shifting fortunes of war in Japan to impact the conflict in Indochina. The entry of the Chinese Communists into the Indochinese conflict had brought with it a significant strengthening of Communist forces within the rebel movement, and the rise of the People's Shogunate suddenly established a foreign force with significant reasons to get involved in the conflict on the side of the rebels. For the first time since the start of the Revolt, the rebels had the prospect of true foreign backing and support. The Fall of Japan was to send shockwaves through French society, greatly energizing both the far-left and far-right. Street gangs and ligues once more took to the streets, protests erupted across much of France both for and against the course of the Indochinese conflict while questions of whether it was even worth holding on to emerged into the public discourse. The Barthou Government was to react with considerable alacrity, publicly backing the Loyalist faction in the Japanese Civil War and urging on the British entry into the conflict with great vigor. A renewed surge in French troops in Indochina was undertaken, this time including French conscript forces, coinciding with the spread of rebellious sentiment outside of Vietnam proper, into the Laotian population in particular, with the conflict once more escalating to a peak in violence. The government turned to the Navy for support, which had largely been left gravely underfunded in favor of funding the Army and Airforce - both of which were viewed as being of significantly greater importance in any conflict with Germany, promising greatly increased naval investments and the preparation of naval forces to help protect French interests in Indochina. However, before this force could be dispatched, news of the Battle of the East China Sea became public knowledge sending the public into a hysterical anti-Communist swing. The naval taskforce was dispatched under the assumption that Indochina would be the next focus of expansion for the Communist hordes while debate over whether the government was prosecuting the war properly or not once more rose to the forefront (10).
It was under these circumstances that the all-important 1937 Presidential and Legislative Elections neared. The five years since the last elections had been amongst the most chaotic in recent memory, with stability only secured early in the previous year. As the elections neared, the political field began to become clear. On the right and far-right sat the large and powerful Union de la Droite, firmly Monarchist, Catholic and Integralist in outlook. In the center lay an array of political affiliates of both center-right and center-left orientation and firmly Republican beliefs spearheaded by the sitting President Doumergue and his partner in government Louis Barthou - even if faced with prominent rivals to leadership in the forms of Camille Chautemps, André Tardieu and Édouard Daladier. Finally, the left was large but disorganized, many supporting center-left figures like Daladier, Chautemps and Léon Blum, but even more adhering to the aims of the radicals surrounding Albert Treint. As the election season came under way, the greatly strained political situation only grew more combative as Arthuys convincingly argued that the Third Republic was failing and that the establishment of a Constitutional Convention to address the situation was the only possible solution to the problems facing France. He condemned the weakness, partisanship and instability of the Republic, painting a picture of unity, strength and morality under a restored Monarchy, only to be met by bitter rebukes from the left and center. The political debate would rise drastically in tension in the months prior to the election. It was at the height of these tensions that a little remarked upon case in the judiciary suddenly rose to the fore. Serge Alexandre Stavisky was a Russian-born Jew who had grown up in France, making a living as a café singer, nightclub manager, a soup factory worker and the operator of a gambling den before he secured the management rights to municipal pawn shops in Bayonne in the early 1930s. During this time he had made inroads into French financial circles, getting involved in ever more egregious cases of fraud while repeatedly paying off newspapers, lawyers, politicians and many others for protection. At one point Stavisky even succeeded in getting several large and influential life-insurance companies to buy up millions of francs worth of false bonds by using his political connections as surety. In late 1936 his luck finally gave out and he was placed under arrest by Paris Police when he tried to sell junk bonds to an important Parisian pension fund. From there the investigation undertaken by the Paris Police Force under the direction of the notoriously right-wing Prefect of the Paris Police, Jean Chiappe, was to gradually reveal an ever more astonishing web of corruption and criminality extending all the way into the heart of Louis Barthou's government - most significantly in the form of Interior Minister Camille Chautemps, himself one of the most prominent Republican politicians of the day. As the Parisian newspapers grew ever more fixated with the case and Stavisky's life of crime was gradually exposed, it soon became clear that the Barthou and Doumergue Government had been struck a devastating blow. Anti-Semitism, Stavisky's ties to the political establishment, the sheer scale of his crimes and the heated political environment all combined to greatly enflame the political situation as protests erupted across much of France under the direction of right-wing ligues. Arthuys would pounce upon the opportunity granted to him, using the Stavisky Affair as yet more proof of the corruption endemic to the Third Republic and pressed home the need for change. With himself slated to serve as President of the Council, Arthuys turned to Count Bernard de Vésins as his running-mate to serve as President of France. A man of right-wing, catholic and monarchist beliefs de Vésins was famous for his great personal integrity, upright personality, noble bearing and considerable courage - having been rewarded with the Legion of Honour and Croix de Guerre 1914-1919 with palm and star for his service during the Great War. Presenting a convincing counterpoint to the scandal struck Centrist government, de Vésins made for a likable and trustworthy candidate despite the leeriness of many towards the monarchist movement as a whole. As such, when the elections occurred on the 8th of April 1937, the Union de la Droite was able to secure their greatest results ever, securing nearly 200 seats in the legislature along with some 130 seats for their various allied parties, with the centrist parties experiencing a precipitous collapse of support while the Left and Far-Left was left splintered by their internal divisions, losing a significant degree of support. Vésins would win the Presidential elections with relative ease while Jacques Arthuys rose as President of the Council (11).
With the government now in hand, it did not take long before the new government put on pressure for a National Assembly to debate a new constitution. Under ever growing pressure, and dogged by the continued persecution of the Stavisky Affair, the republicans floundered in their attempts to hold the line, ultimately resulting in the calling of a National Assembly of the Senate and Chamber of Deputies on the 18th of October 1937. From the beginning, the proposed constitution was under the control of the new government, who aimed to undertake a complete reshaping of French Society by proposing the restoration of the Monarchy and the overturning of the Third Republic. The new constitution called for the ascension of Jean d'Orléans, Duc de Guise, as King of France, replaced the President of the Council with the post of Prime Minister, to lead the government at the discretion of the monarchy and the acceptance of the legislature - which was reduced to a single chamber with significantly raised barriers of entry to parties in the Chamber - now requiring a full 5% of votes to be eligible for entry. It entrenched Social Welfare, Social Unity, Monarchism and Catholicism as pillars of the state and set the term of office at four years while greatly strengthening the position of what would become the Premiership in an effort to tackle the weak central authority established in the constitution of the Third Republic. By most measures, the Constitution retained the democratic principles which had come to define French society during the past century and a half, drawing heavily on inspiration from the workings of the Boulangists of the late 19th century. It placed greater strictures on the processes of government and sought to greatly strengthen the state while weakening the actual power of the legislature by greatly expanding the powers of the executive branch of government considerably. A number of other measures were further included, primarily borrowing heavily from corporatist and integralist ideologies, which sought to create cooperation between industries and corporations according to their branches of activity, introduced a minimum wage and paid holidays while upholding women's right to vote - believing them to be a potential key constituency of the Arthuysian movement given that they were perceived to be more conservative and catholic in outlook than many of their male counterparts. All in all, the Arthuysian Constitution which emerged melded together a great number of different ideas from across the political spectrum - the social welfare of the left, the unifying force of Catholicism, the democratic veneer of Constitutionalism and the strong executive power of Integralism. The new constitution was to be signed into law on the 21st of November 1937, with the prospective king arriving in Paris on the 30th. The events which were to follow would draw the entire attentions of the world, with Paris swarmed by an ever growing cavalcade of reporters from around the globe all searching for the latest bit of news to share with their readers about the course of events in France. While in conservative circles the ascension of the new monarch was greeted with great acclaim, with particularly the countries of the Latin Bloc holding public celebrations of the affair, it was greeted with considerable worry by figures in both Germany and Britain, who expressed their concerns about what an ascendent and combative far-right government in France would mean for national and international security. Nobility and royalty from across Europe streamed to attend the events, with Crown Prince Wilhelm and his sons Wilhelm and Louis Ferdinand representing the German Hohenzollerns while the young and dashing King Edward VIII of Britain made a sensation out of his participation, drawing an astonishing train of reporters eager to inform their readers of the King's every move. While the Pope refrained from attending the affair, he dispatched his close advisor and successor as the Archbishop of Toledo, Enrique Plá y Deniel, to represent him instead. For the coronation itself, it was decided to hold the event in the Cathedral of Reims, the traditional crowning site of countless French Kings, and was undertaken by the conservative Archbishop of Reims Louis-Augustin Marmottin in a grand ceremony which was recorded and televised across much of Europe, with rolls of the event finding their way to theaters around the world. A spectacular show put on to demonstrate the renewed vitality of the French state, Arthuys and his companions spared no expense in making the affair amongst the most decadently expensive and awe-inducing in modern memory, stunning observers and convincing many into a belief in the message Arthuys wanted spread - namely that a new day was dawning for France and that nothing would be the same against. The extended ceremony begun on the 31st of December with a ceremonial funeral for the Third Republic and lasting until the 9th of January 1938, as the Orléans Monarchy was restored to power and Jacques Arthuys swiftly elevated to the post of Prime Minister soon thereafter. The January Monarchy had begun (12).
Footnotes:
(7) There are a couple key things to take out of this section. First of all the protestant Doumergue has been able to significantly strengthen his position playing an ambiguous role of both stabilizer and destabilizer while empowering himself throughout. The French left's leadership finds itself challenged by young and radical leaders who are increasingly fed up with the status quo and view their leaders' methods as a failure. I should note the bit about plucking socialist poultry is from one of Treint's OTL quotes. Finally, we have the big one - Arthuys' rise to prominence on the Right. I know that he seems to come out of left-field with little in the way of buildup, but he is one of the figures who has been involved with the right-wing ligues throughout this period and who has steadily been amassing power before just exploding out of seeming nowhere. There are plenty of examples of figures like this out there, so I don't think it is particularly out there for a clever and capable wealthy right-winger to use the opportunity to rise to the top on the backs of Maurras and Pujo's hard work.
(8) French society is very much in flux during this time and notably is not quite the cultural powerhouse of the past, instead finding itself influenced from foreign lands instead - most prominently with the off-branch of the Harlem Renaissance, Integralist elements out of Spain and Proletkult out of Germany. Literary dialogue is strongly influenced by ideology and disagreements are common and explosive. While the veterans organizations succeeded in distancing themselves from the political struggles, Arthuys is able to largely coopt them in his mission to mainstream the monarchy. In general, Jacques Arthuys should be seen as a deeply calculative figure who knows how to play people off each other to make the most gain for himself and his movement. He is slick and charismatic, which puts him in good standing whether he is dealing with ardent right-wing Republicans or hard-core Monarchists.
(9) IOTL the Interwar Period for France was basically one long series of budget cuts which ended up fundamentally undermining the military capabilities of the French Army. ITTL things play out a bit differently. While there is a similar need for reduced military investments early in the 1920s, over the course of the decade Pétain in particular is able to secure improved financial resources from the Briand government and, perhaps most significantly, is able to secure the formation of an independent Air Force - a move championed by Pétain IOTL but which failed. Here he has much closer connections to the government and is the foremost figure in the army bar none, Foch having been ejected and Joffre well on his way out while d'Espèrey is only just beginning his rise to prominence during these years. The left-wing government of Hérriot makes budget cuts to the military, but it nothing on the scale of OTL, and when Pétain is able to secure his appointment in 1934 he is able to repair much of the damage. In general while the French army is smaller than the German one, it remains one of the premier military forces in the world as a result of these shifts. However, we see the way in which politics are also spilling over into the military with the rivalry between the two great military leaders.
(10) As in the past the focus here is not really on the conflict in Indochina itself, but rather the way in which the conflict shapes French politics, military and society - Indochina will be dealt with in more detail independently. In this case we see the ever growing French investment into the conflict and the growing disenchantment with the way the conflict is being handled. While the war swings back and forth multiple times, causing repeated changes in government as successive Presidents of the Council are forced to take responsibility, the Japanese Civil War really sends things firmly off the rails. With the October Revolution and the rise of the People's Shogunate, the situation shifts firmly against the French for the first time, raising the specter of Japanese intervention in the conflict.
(11) The Stavisky Affair plays out a bit differently IOTL, but a lot of the stuff he gets involved in here is firmly OTL. I know it is a bit screwy the way I have it playing out, but considering the butterflies I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that Stavisky would be able to keep his fraud going for a while longer (IOTL his actions drew note in 1934). Notably, instead of him committing suicide while on the run as happened IOTL, ITTL he is caught and swiftly begins to squeal about all of his government contacts in an attempt to lessen his sentence - well remembering what happened during the Dreyfus Affair. A couple lucky breaks coupled with political acumen and a surging tide of support allow Arthuys and the UD to sweep into power with significant good will at their back.
(12) I know the constitutional change happens swiftly here and surprisingly painlessly, but the 1937 elections largely come to be seen as a referendum on the issue itself, and the monarchists are able to use that to their advantage, using the momentum behind them to secure the situation in their favor. The constitution which results is surprisingly democratic all things considered, but it is worth remembering that once you are in power it is often quite easy to twist things in your favor. Importantly, while the French monarchy is restored, the real power ends up going to the executive branch under the Prime Minister. In this new system of government it is the Prime Minister who is the most powerful figure and as long as he can maintain his support in the legislature, he is the key figure in power. The monarchy is not completely toothless like in Great Britain, but it is very limited in what real power it possesses. In this section we also really start to see the divergences in ecclesiastical appointments which have resulted from the much more conservative and integralist outlook within the Papal Catholic Church, with Enrique Plá y Deniel and Louis-Augustin Marmottin rising to positions of significant power within their respective churches - securing their seats earlier than IOTL. Enrique Plá y Deniel was acknowledged as the most arch-reactionary of the conservative bishops of Spain during the Civil War - which is saying something - and was a close associate of Isidro Gomá y Tomás IOTL - TTL's Pope Pius XI. Marmottin has been a stalwart of the far-right in the French Church ITTL and as such receives the backing of Pope Pius XI when the time to make an appointment to Archbishop of Reims comes around. Worth noting that IOTL Marmottin was almost removed from his posting during the French Liberation for his political affiliations and actions during the Second World War.
End Note:
And with that we start to get a glimpse of the emerging international pattern which will set in with the rise of the People's Shogunate. I really hope that everyone finds Arthuys an interesting figure to have rise to power, and that the new French Monarchy lives up to people's expectations. This was one of those ideas I had rather early on, wanting to explore the idea of a restored French monarchy in the 1900s, but it proved surprisingly challenging to work out. If you go back, you will be able to see that I have been laying the ground work for this for quite some time. I did consider various other outcomes, from a restored Republic to a Leftist surge to the front or an actual civil war, but I personally think this is the best way forward. With the addition of France to the already rapidly expanding list of Integralist states, we finally start to reach a point where the Latin Pact and its affiliates can serve as a proper international power bloc.
