A Day in July: An Early 20th Century Timeline

[Zulfurium]

Thank you for the comments, it is really helpful and helps my thinking a great deal.

As regards the points on a naval treaty, you have brought me around to the idea that there is a lot more flexibility to the matter than just simple parity and that the Germans are going to be looking at the developments of the war and particularly the mixed record of the HSF quite a bit before they decide one way or the otheer.

Regarding Germany's welfare state and the connection of eugenics to welfare, I think that we might see considerable differences within Germany as to how extensive the welfare state is - I think it is something that will be run on a state or regional basis, with varying levels depending mostly on how powerful the SPD is in any one region. I will see if I can get a hold of Evans' book, sounds like it should help out quite a bit. At the moment I am making my way through the relevant sections of Tooze's The Deluge - which was how I came to consider the challenges of Britain's position in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

While eugenics has been tied to a bunch of bunk science, but at its heart the idea behind it seems extremely forward thinking and I think that once knowledge of modern genetics had come about you would have seen a shift away from focusing on the more anachronistic elements of the movement. I think that if doctrinairian approaches and wilful blindness can be sidelined then it could ultimately move beyond the visible differences. I think one of the most significant problems with eugenics has to do with the technology available when it reached its peak. The lack of knowledge on modern genetics and a lot of pre-conceived notions of the period pushed what was originally a very well-meaning movement (even if their methods were crude and often callous) onto a very dark path. Hell, I am pretty sure that if the eugenics movement hadn't been discredited by its more crazy adherents, we would be considerably further along in implementing genetic therapies for all sorts of ills - for better and worse. I found it interesting that, in A People's Tragedy, Orlando Figes describes how the Soviets believed that you could better someone, in the same way as supporters of eugenics wanted to better people, through education. Education was presented as a panacea which could solve any societal ill and reforge the working class into some sort of superhuman collective. There is something very utopian about both of those approaches, and they seem to share a lot of goals in many ways - make of that what you will. If you were mapping out various alternate timelines, I am pretty convinced that OTL's attitudes towards eugenics would fall into an outlier position.

 

[Wolttaire]

eugenics is actuttly still around today just with diffrent words and that it would b much bigger in ittl

 

[Scerus]

SNIP

Hey Zulfurium, what is Stanley Baldwin up to? will he still play a very important role in post-war British politics?

 

[Wolttaire]

Hey zulfurium should we save most of our questions until you do a overview of most of the world?

 

[Zulfurium]

Hey Zulfurium, what is Stanley Baldwin up to? will he still play a very important role in post-war British politics?

Stanley Baldwin is an up-and-comer in the Conservative Party but for the time being Bonar Law remains leader of the party and the Unionists remain a major force in the party. Baldwin is one of the most impressive figures in the younger ranks of the government, so I would expect to see him play a major role as we move forward.

Hey zulfurium should we save most of our questions until you do a overview of most of the world?

You are welcome to ask questions but keep in mind that I am trying to avoid spoiling stuff, so I might not answer more specific questions. Just know that answers to what is happening in Japan, China, Russia, Italy, the Middle East, Turkey and more is coming up in the next update. Then there is a narrative update. After that we will deal with the US elections, more on the rebuilding of the European order, Ireland and Austria-Hungary.

More general questions or stuff relating to previous updates are best to ask because I can give better answers for that.

Main point, there is a lot of stuff coming up bringing the rest of the world up to date so hold your questions until after I have dealt with that region if you want a proper answer.

That said, I am always happy to get questions that allow for a debate and discussion in the thread.

 

[Deleted member 83898]

Does the UBD control Latgale?

 

[Wolttaire]

You are welcome to ask questions but keep in mind that I am trying to avoid spoiling stuff, so I might not answer more specific questions. Just know that answers to what is happening in Japan, China, Russia, Italy, the Middle East, Turkey and more is coming up in the next update. Then there is a narrative update. After that we will deal with the US elections, more on the rebuilding of the European order, Ireland and Austria-Hungary.

More general questions or stuff relating to previous updates are best to ask because I can give better answers for that.

Main point, there is a lot of stuff coming up bringing the rest of the world up to date so hold your questions until after I have dealt with that region if you want a proper answer.

That said, I am always happy to get questions that allow for a debate and discussion in the thread.

k
Second question do you want any help with This because you are essential world building a whole new world here and This is getting harder with life getting in the way so I lot people would help but if you think yah group work is inherently different and of a different type of quality than one person work I understand

 

[Zulfurium]

Does the UBD control Latgale?

Yes, it is included in the UBD, although for the time being it is in a state of limbo, with the Moscow Reds also claiming it through their Belarussian Green allies who actually hold effective control there. More on this in the coming update.

k
Second question do you want any help with This because you are essential world building a whole new world here and This is getting harder with life getting in the way so I lot people would help but if you think yah group work is inherently different and of a different type of quality than one person work I understand

I would prefer for the main update posts/TL to remain solely my contribution, but I would be very welcoming of supporting sections, interludes and exploration of various sections. As long as people clear it with me before they start on it (giving me an idea of what they want to do, so I can judge if it fits with the TL) and before it gets posted (or are willing to make suggested changes), then I would really enjoy for people to join in.

At this point I have sufficient familiarity with the period that stuff I have been writing on for a while (particularly Russian events and directly related to the Great War on the western Front) that I only have to consult with sources on a couple of occasions - mostly to find characters who would fit with what I am describing. The problem is that I am moving into a new period and as such I need time to research it. I have the next two main updates and a narrative update already finished up and I am working my way through a third main update - and have mapped out most of what I want to do up to update twenty two, but I need to research more about what was going on in France, Germany, America, Britain and Russia in the mid-1920s. At the moment I am in something of a lull in activity, having handed in my thesis and waiting till sometime next week before I start prepping my defense of it, so I have a lot of time to write and research atm.

BTW, the Danish movie I watched (Journal 64) was really good, a crime drama revolving around a series of crimes tied to the Sprogø home for pathologically promiscuous women (mostly just women who got pregnant out of wedlock or the like) which saw a ton of abuses IOTL. It digs into the events there - a lot of really dark stuff about Danish history in the 20th century.

Spoiler: About The Movie

Really a dark stain on Danish history and linked to the Danish Welfare State and Danish Eugenics movement. Also has a criminal conspiracy of Danish eugenicists who are inflicting forced sterilization on immigrant women. Had some really grim implications and touched on a lot of dark shit in Danish history and current affairs. It ended with the conspiracy revealed - yada yada yada. But I would really have been interested to see the movie explore the political, international and cultural implications of the scenario. Was quite thought provoking.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Forms matter. Especially if you are the loser. You want to retain some dignity/honor/pride. Thats what the forms are for. You may not prevent the Dolchstoßlegende entirely, but you will prevent it from becoming the only thing. You should read more contemporary german internal newspapers et al. The lack of forms was the thing which made it so virulent.

At Vienna, the french got a delegation and were allowed at the negotation table. 1871, the same. At Versailles, the germans got no seat, no negotiation and no dignity. If you propose that this had no impact on future behaviour/internal politics in Germany

So Germany gets a seat at the table and then what? They likely still lose what they lost historically maybe there are slightly fewer reparations slightly fewer arms limitations slightly more favorable territorial transfers and whichever government that comes into power has more of a leg to stand on. Then what? Would the German general staff not go through the motions of forming a stab in the back Myth to save their own asses? Would whichever new governmental not purposely sabotage their own economy in order to not pay the full amount of reparations? Does Germany still feel like she lost the war despite not being defeated? Does the Great Depression still not send Germanies economy into a tailspin putting the pieces in place for the rise of extremism?

delusional

calling people names doesn't help matters just so you know

I do. I felt justified in including it because it reflects the attitude that germans must be automatically evil. For me, such assumptions are the antithesis of alternate history, since it does not ask why.

Since when did I say anything about Germans being automatically evil? I said what I did based on my knowledge of Germany at the time however flawed it may be if you cannot respond in a polite manner than there is no debate

Sorry @Zulfurium just felt like I had to get this out there I'm done now

 

[XLII]

Since when did I say anything about Germans being automatically evil?

...

So Germany gets a seat at the table and then what? They likely still lose what they lost historically maybe there are slightly fewer reparations slightly fewer arms limitations slightly more favorable territorial transfers and whichever government that comes into power has more of a leg to stand on. Then what? Would the German general staff not go through the motions of forming a stab in the back Myth to save their own asses? Would whichever new governmental not purposely sabotage their own economy in order to not pay the full amount of reparations? Does Germany still feel like she lost the war despite not being defeated? Does the Great Depression still not send Germanies economy into a tailspin putting the pieces in place for the rise of extremism?

If you can't be bothered to think about the "why" all these things occured, there clearly is no need for debate.

 

[Rufus]

What does the new German government think of the Russian situation, now that the war is over? ITTL the treaty that took Russia out of the war wasn’t as harsh as Brest-Litovsk. The leniency ITTL made sense at the time, since the Russian civil war hadn‘t really begun yet, and the Germans wanted peace on the eastern front – overly harsh terms would have been counterproductive. But now the war is over, and the Germans are able to intervene in Russia as much as they want. In fact, they can intervene more than anyone was ever able to IOTL. It was mentioned in one of the earlier updates that Wilhelm actually thought about partitioning Russia permanently, though people like Kühlmann took a more moderate course, which made sense at the time.

But what are their long term goals now? Do they want the Don Whites to retake all of Russia, including Siberia, Belarus and the Ukraine? They must surely know that they would never be able to keep a united Russia in their sphere of influence, unlike the rest of eastern Europe, at least not in the long term. Britain and France (and maybe America as well) would likely do everything in their power to get close to Russia once more, and help it become a great power again, as a counterweight to Germany – which it surely would, especially if the Ukraine remains part of Russia. Though i guess it‘s possible that the Germans themselves are unsure what exactly they want, other than destroying the Reds.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Russia seems to be doing a fine job of partitioning itself.

I doubt the Germans totally know what they want - except, as you say, what they dont' want which is a large Red Russia. Now that there is peace there may be some desire to play the sides off agaisnt each other, always trying to keep some kind of balance - and as long as 2 of the 3 factions, though Reds, hate each other that's actually kind of doable, though one would think that one RFed faction would eventually get the upper hand.

Just as Britain consistently worked for a balance of power in Europe, Germany might try the same thing, hoping long-term for a "blance of power" in the Russians area, which them holding parts of it via their friends in Eastern Europe.

When you think about it, the fact that that Russia is able to control so much area even without modern communication a century ago was rathr amazing; it spoke to the weakness of the other powers in the area. Siberia is HUGE, and I wonder if Germany tries to connect with Japan outside the Copenhagen Conference and tell them, "Hey, uh, you know we kinda won the war, though barely, and we'd like to make sure we keep some Pacific stuff, even though you took it; so, how about we help you get a foothold in Vladivostok or something in exchange."

 

[Practical Lobster]

There's really no terrain in the European part of Russia, to my mind, that would permit the civil war not to ultimately end in favor of one side or other. In situations where both sides in a civil war regard themselves as rightful rulers of the whole country, how often do they content themselves with a long-term partition? There aren't too many historical examples I can think of: Korea and China, but modern Taiwan is geographically distinct from the PRC and Korea is a very unique situation.

The idea of two or more Russias is just unrealistic in the long term, I think. A Russia that's been stripped of vast amount of territory I can buy, but not a Russia with multiple Russian states.

 

[Zulfurium]

What does the new German government think of the Russian situation, now that the war is over? ITTL the treaty that took Russia out of the war wasn’t as harsh as Brest-Litovsk. The leniency ITTL made sense at the time, since the Russian civil war hadn‘t really begun yet, and the Germans wanted peace on the eastern front – overly harsh terms would have been counterproductive. But now the war is over, and the Germans are able to intervene in Russia as much as they want. In fact, they can intervene more than anyone was ever able to IOTL. It was mentioned in one of the earlier updates that Wilhelm actually thought about partitioning Russia permanently, though people like Kühlmann took a more moderate course, which made sense at the time.

But what are their long term goals now? Do they want the Don Whites to retake all of Russia, including Siberia, Belarus and the Ukraine? They must surely know that they would never be able to keep a united Russia in their sphere of influence, unlike the rest of eastern Europe, at least not in the long term. Britain and France (and maybe America as well) would likely do everything in their power to get close to Russia once more, and help it become a great power again, as a counterweight to Germany – which it surely would, especially if the Ukraine remains part of Russia. Though i guess it‘s possible that the Germans themselves are unsure what exactly they want, other than destroying the Reds.

I will be getting into how the Germans deal with the Russian situation in the next update so I think I will leave off answering that specific question for now.

As regards their long-term goals they would prefer a partitioning of Russia into multiple parts where they aren't blamed for it. That was what was viewed as the main problem with Wilhelm's wish for partition - it would have left all of Russia united against Germany. That said, having the Don Whites retake the rest of Russia wouldn't be a complete disaster, but the moment Russia is unified it is likely to look towards strengthening its position across its vast borderlands. Under such circumstances, the Germans would be reliant on their good relations to the Don White leadership - hoping to redirect Russian efforts away from an attempt to reconquer their European domains.

In general it is an extremely complex situation and there are very different positions on the issue. By the way, I should probably mention that Kühlmann is no longer Foreign Minister of Germany, with Rathenau securing the post for his support of Stresemann. And yes, that development isn't particularly agreeable to the Kaiser, but business interests are taking a pretty strong step forward when it comes to influence over German policy.

Russia seems to be doing a fine job of partitioning itself.

I doubt the Germans totally know what they want - except, as you say, what they dont' want which is a large Red Russia. Now that there is peace there may be some desire to play the sides off agaisnt each other, always trying to keep some kind of balance - and as long as 2 of the 3 factions, though Reds, hate each other that's actually kind of doable, though one would think that one RFed faction would eventually get the upper hand.

Just as Britain consistently worked for a balance of power in Europe, Germany might try the same thing, hoping long-term for a "blance of power" in the Russians area, which them holding parts of it via their friends in Eastern Europe.

When you think about it, the fact that that Russia is able to control so much area even without modern communication a century ago was rathr amazing; it spoke to the weakness of the other powers in the area. Siberia is HUGE, and I wonder if Germany tries to connect with Japan outside the Copenhagen Conference and tell them, "Hey, uh, you know we kinda won the war, though barely, and we'd like to make sure we keep some Pacific stuff, even though you took it; so, how about we help you get a foothold in Vladivostok or something in exchange."

In general, you are pretty right about the Germans.

The conflicts in Siberia and Eastern Europe are so far removed that the Germans wouldn't be able to provide aid of any sort across that distance - they aren't even opposing the same factions.

I think a lot of this uncertainty will be dealt with in the next update, so I apologize for not being more direct here.

There's really no terrain in the European part of Russia, to my mind, that would permit the civil war not to ultimately end in favor of one side or other. In situations where both sides in a civil war regard themselves as rightful rulers of the whole country, how often do they content themselves with a long-term partition? There aren't too many historical examples I can think of: Korea and China, but modern Taiwan is geographically distinct from the PRC and Korea is a very unique situation.

The idea of two or more Russias is just unrealistic in the long term, I think. A Russia that's been stripped of vast amount of territory I can buy, but not a Russia with multiple Russian states.

While you are right that it is extremely rare for factions in a civil war to maintain a claim to the entire country while bringing the conflict to an end, we aren't talking about long-term partition just yet.

Keep in mind that Russia has basically been at war since 1914 at this war, and in a devastating civil war since 1918. That is not tenable for much longer. At some point exhaustion will catch up to the various factions if one isn't able to outmaneuver and defeat the others pretty soon. Multiple Russias are possible, it is just a question of forcing the conflict to an end before any one faction emerges as dominant. Whether that is in any way tenable beyond a couple of years of truce is another matter - but at some point these sub-states are not going to be able to keep fighting this conflict, it is quite simply too devastating.

 

[Ombra]

What does the new German government think of the Russian situation, now that the war is over? ITTL the treaty that took Russia out of the war wasn’t as harsh as Brest-Litovsk. The leniency ITTL made sense at the time, since the Russian civil war hadn‘t really begun yet, and the Germans wanted peace on the eastern front – overly harsh terms would have been counterproductive. But now the war is over, and the Germans are able to intervene in Russia as much as they want. In fact, they can intervene more than anyone was ever able to IOTL. It was mentioned in one of the earlier updates that Wilhelm actually thought about partitioning Russia permanently, though people like Kühlmann took a more moderate course, which made sense at the time.

But what are their long term goals now? Do they want the Don Whites to retake all of Russia, including Siberia, Belarus and the Ukraine? They must surely know that they would never be able to keep a united Russia in their sphere of influence, unlike the rest of eastern Europe, at least not in the long term. Britain and France (and maybe America as well) would likely do everything in their power to get close to Russia once more, and help it become a great power again, as a counterweight to Germany – which it surely would, especially if the Ukraine remains part of Russia. Though i guess it‘s possible that the Germans themselves are unsure what exactly they want, other than destroying the Reds.

Was it really so much more lenient? I don't mean this as a rethorical question. I remember the original treaty left Estonia and Belarus both in Russian hands, whereas the final treaty simply left Belarus to Russian control. So they still lose the Baltics, Finland, Ukraine and the Caucasus; Belarus is not to be underestimated as an important position for a defensive line but it looks to me like the fundamentals of Brest Litovsk are very similar to OTL? Or maybe I'm missing some clause etc.

With that said, I was wondering about this as well, and thinking some more about the whole UK/Japan situation while grocery shopping (that's a totally normal thing, right?) but I haven't made progress on the latter in terms of potential suggestions so I'll ask a question instead: is Britain going to play the "fear the yellow men" card to incentivise the Dominions to get on board the project?

As regards their long-term goals they would prefer a partitioning of Russia into multiple parts where they aren't blamed for it. That was what was viewed as the main problem with Wilhelm's wish for partition - it would have left all of Russia united against Germany. That said, having the Don Whites retake the rest of Russia wouldn't be a complete disaster, but the moment Russia is unified it is likely to look towards strengthening its position across its vast borderlands. Under such circumstances, the Germans would be reliant on their good relations to the Don White leadership - hoping to redirect Russian efforts away from an attempt to reconquer their European domains.

This is a very good answer, thanks Zulfurium! I had forgotten about Rathenau. Well, I can't complain - imho he's going to be a worthy successor to Kuhlmann, and he does deserve recognition for his efforts during the war. Also, he gets to live in this TL...

Whether that is in any way tenable beyond a couple of years of truce is another matter - but at some point these sub-states are not going to be able to keep fighting this conflict, it is quite simply too devastating.

Very good point, and rebuilding will take that much longer; and if different choices are made from OTL, results may vary - both in terms of blood cost and effectiveness.

 

[Wolttaire]

So is the finish border still marker and do we have a greater Finland here and will Finland try to make there new territory Finnish? Also the Czechslovika legion what happen to them?

 

[Zulfurium]

Was it really so much more lenient? I don't mean this as a rethorical question. I remember the original treaty left Estonia and Belarus both in Russian hands, whereas the final treaty simply left Belarus to Russian control. So they still lose the Baltics, Finland, Ukraine and the Caucasus; Belarus is not to be underestimated as an important position for a defensive line but it looks to me like the fundamentals of Brest Litovsk are very similar to OTL? Or maybe I'm missing some clause etc.

With that said, I was wondering about this as well, and thinking some more about the whole UK/Japan situation while grocery shopping (that's a totally normal thing, right?) but I haven't made progress on the latter in terms of potential suggestions so I'll ask a question instead: is Britain going to play the "fear the yellow men" card to incentivise the Dominions to get on board the project?

This is a very good answer, thanks Zulfurium! I had forgotten about Rathenau. Well, I can't complain - imho he's going to be a worthy successor to Kuhlmann, and he does deserve recognition for his efforts during the war. Also, he gets to live in this TL...

Very good point, and rebuilding will take that much longer; and if different choices are made from OTL, results may vary - both in terms of blood cost and effectiveness.

The original Treaty of Petrograd with Kornilov specified that the Ukraine would eventually be returned to his rule when the Great War came to an end, although as a secret paragraph so as not to piss off the Ukrainians. This was transfered to the Don Whites when the Germans changed horse mid-race, but here they turned over Ukraine as swiftly as possible because it was collapsing anyway and they secured acceptance of their claim on Estonia for the UBD.

I usually use grocery shopping to listen to podcasts (mostly historical in nature) and thinking about this sort of stuff, so that seems completely within normality for me.

At the moment I am increasingly convinced that with greater Great War debts, the necessity of keeping an eye on the Germans and diplomatic distance to the Americans, the British might actually extend the Anglo-Japanese alliance treaty. IOTL the reason that the British had to suddenly scramble for a new solution in the Pacific was because the Americans protested the Anglo-Japanese alliance so heavily (Tooze writes about Hughes, the American Sec. State basically ranting at the British Ambassador that America won the war for Britain and basically blackmailing the British into choosing between America and Japan.) and I am not so sure they would be as opposed to the alliance ITTL given their extended cooperation in Siberia. On one hand, prolonged partnerships of that sort can blow up in everyone's faces, but with considerable American forces in Siberia I would think a good Japanese-American relationship would be a must.

Rathenau is probably in the upper tier of diplomatic talent from the 1920s, and I think that his OTL efforts - while still considerable - were pretty close to the low end of what he had the capabilities to accomplish. Particularly his business expertise, given the German thrust into international markets and complex economic developments, should be a natural boon to German diplomacy in this period. Kühlmann currently has a sinecure position at the Foreign Ministry and serves as advisor when needed - basically mulling his next moves. He is also collecting documents for a memoir about the war etc.

So is the finish border still marker and do we have a greater Finland here and will Finland try to make there new territory Finnish? Also the Czechslovika legion what happen to them?

Finland is currently occupying much of Karelia, skrimishing with Muscovite forces in the forests alongside their Karelian allies - they are poised to secure control of much of Karelia and the Kola peninsula.

The Czechoslovak Legion led the way in the Parsky Offensive and was largely chewed up in the effort. It isn't really a force with any real heft at this point. There are a couple scattered companies fighting on various sides of the Russian Civil War claiming to be the "One True Legion" but most of the legionaires have either died, gone into exile in an Allied country or returned to Bohemia.

 

[Wolttaire]

Yeah I always like a bigger Finland and what our there long tern goals for finland?

 

[Zulfurium]

Yeah I always like a bigger Finland and what our there long tern goals for finland?

Well, securing their independence from Russia is first. Then ensuring that White/Conservative/Liberial rule is maintained. Then securing control of Karelia.

 

[Sardar]

Maybe Kingdom of Finland?