Not really. Even if you're goal is the contuinace of British role provoking a revolt and terrorist uprising is still a sure fire way to ensure British rule is completely doomed to end. If you wanted to do the opposite, you'd have to do, well, the complete opposite - which would be to allow the situation to stabilise, and accepting the existence of the Nationalists is a political reality that can't be solved by trying to arrest them all. Because attempting to "crush resistance" in Ireland is precisely what will create endless resistance.

As to the "major threat" Ireland poses to British national security, its really fairly minor as the "dagger" of foreign backed Irish nationalist revolts has proven extremely blunt on multiple occasions (because their European backers can never deliver real support), and the best way to ensure it remains so permanently is the heavy handed approach seen in this timeline.

Treating what was first supposed to be part of the Union and then a Dominion as if it is a colony is a unresolvable paradox that will never turn up trumps.

The fact of the matter is that you can “crush resistance” in Ireland, it is just a matter of having the stomach to do so. The British had already done so on several occasions with extreme brutality. It would, of course, only be a temporary measure and resistance would likely appear again at a later point, but in the short to medium term it is doable.

The thing holding back the British from taking off the gloves fully is the fact that the Liberals generally wanted Home Rule or at least to get rid of the issue in favor of domestic politics such as combatting the post-war crisis, and the danger of alienating the Americans. Irish resistance in and of itself is more than manageable if the resources are dedicated to it and the British move towards viewing this as a war rather than an effort to restore domestic tranquility. At heart, the Irish War of Liberation is a matter of British willingness to invest the requisite resources and compromising their international and domestic reputation. IOTL Lloyd George wasn’t willing to go that far, and there is nothing to indicate he would

Best of luck to you. - It has been some time since I did my own, but I do review on occasion.

I wasn't gunning for "A civil war is certain." but rather more of a "Well, it went from impossible to unlikely.". I would agree with you that the aftermath of WWI colours the lens in which we see history. And to think that such things as "observe diplomatic niceties" could have prevented WWII (and boosted german economy).

Thanks :)

Alright, misunderstood you. You are correct. Diplomatic niceties are important! They are what divide us from the barbarians :p
 
Alright, misunderstood you. You are correct. Diplomatic niceties are important! They are what divide us from the barbarians :p
^^ No sweat. The more I read about the ToV, the more I think you could have averted the whole "We don't want/can't pay" (and the attendant crib-strangling of Weimar) simply by observing the forms at the treaty negotiation. Even if the result is already predetermined. If the other side goes home with "They beat us, but it could have been worse" thats good. If they go home with OTLs "They cheated, and now they want to enslave us!" well, see OTL.
 
^^ No sweat. The more I read about the ToV, the more I think you could have averted the whole "We don't want/can't pay" (and the attendant crib-strangling of Weimar) simply by observing the forms at the treaty negotiation. Even if the result is already predetermined. If the other side goes home with "They beat us, but it could have been worse" thats good. If they go home with OTLs "They cheated, and now they want to enslave us!" well, see OTL.

The shock of arriving at Versailles and expecting an orderly series of negotiations only to have the terms crammed down your throat with no say in them was definitely traumatizing to all of the Central Powers and their successors. I also think that if they had actually negotiated, the terms would have turned out considerably more lenient than they were IOTL.
 
The shock of arriving at Versailles and expecting an orderly series of negotiations only to have the terms crammed down your throat with no say in them was definitely traumatizing to all of the Central Powers and their successors. I also think that if they had actually negotiated, the terms would have turned out considerably more lenient than they were IOTL.
Victor’s peace rarely lends itself to long term stability and reduction of tensions.
 
One thing that would be interesting to see regarding Ireland would be the propaganda war in Europe, the Irish Republic put a lot of effort into promoting their cause in Europe OTL during the War of Independence: https://www.difp.ie/browse-volumes/volume.asp?VolumeID=1&st=ye

The British going full Boer War in Ireland is likely to have a big effect on European opinion and even after the IRA is defeated you could see an Irish government-in-exile established, one of the things that was lamented by the Irish representative to France was that unlike the Poles the Irish had not been numerous and active in propagandising and securing support for their cause and that the Irish cause had been forgotten as a result.
 
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Well enough of the French still remembered 1871 Germany didn't make any allies or endure themselves to lenient terms there
The point - which you seem to be missing - is that while you can be harsh with the conditions, you have to observe the forms (as they were with the French after Napoleon, etc). Which were observed in 1871, and it took considerable effort (as in whole-hog indoctrination for everybody) for "revanche" to stay current. Even OTL, it had begun to wane by 1914.
 
(9) While this isn't quite what @Rufus proposed for Germany, it does hold a number of similarities so I feel I should give kudos for some of the inspiration. I think that this is probably the best set of reforms Germany could have secured at the time and given the political climate. This reform answers many of the critiques and problems most people had with the German system at the time, at least to some degree, while also protecting conservative and monarchical interests to some extent. By moving to a federal indirect voting system, the system becomes considerably harder for populist parties to secure federal power - be they left or right wing - while greatly strengthening the status quo. At the same time, the direct proportional elections at a state and local level means that there are places for popular will to find itself expressed which, when coupled with the relatively power held by the state and local levels in the Imperial system mean that these are actually pretty significant avenues to power. Perhaps the most important point here is that this opens up the Prussian Kingdom from the iron grip previously held by the conservatives in the region with the end of the Prussian Franchise - which will have some interesting consequences.

I‘m honored that you took some inspirations from my ideas. So i assume the members of the Reichstag are elected in similar fashion to the way Senators were elected in the US prior to the passing of the 17th amendment in 1913, where they were elected by the state legislatures, instead of popular vote (except that in this case the German state parliaments vote for lists of candidates rather than individuals, i guess)? In that case, what is the constitutional role of the Bundesrat now? It was the representation of the German states, but the Reichstag has more or less taken that role now, with its members being elected by the state legislatures, which makes the Bundesrat somewhat superfluous. Will it be abolished, or changed into something else? I could see it being transformed into the representative body of the German ruling houses – a German House of Lords, basically, something which Germany didn‘t have before (at least not on the federal level).

You also mentioned that the franchise in Germany was extended on the local and state level, in addition to the constitutional reforms on the federal level. But what about the constitutions of the German states? Were there reforms there as well, other than extension of the franchise? Because none of the German states were parliamentary democracies as we know them today, not even the more liberal ones. Prussia especially is very important, since it has always been the conservative stronghold within Germany, and is by far the largest of the German states, not to mention that Wilhelm is also King of Prussia. Before the war the conservatives were vastly overrepresented in the Prussian parliament thanks to the Prussian electoral system – they must have known that any large scale electoral reform would collapse their numbers. However, i would argue that an even more important issue would actually be the Prussian Herrenhaus, which was the kingdom‘s Upper House and basically the Prussian equivalent to the British House of Lords, with most of its members being appointed by the King or having inherited their seat, but with much more power compared to the House of Lords. It was through the Herrenhaus that the King/Kaiser could basically veto anything he wanted in Prussia, and though Prussia in Germany as a whole.

If the reforms on the federal level were a compromise, then the same would probably be true for Prussia. In fact, the kingdom is large enough that one could implement constitutional and electoral reforms similar to the ones on the federal level – meaning that the Prussian provinces (Schleswig-Holstein, Brandenburg, Hanover, Silesia, the Rheinland etc.) might get their own regional parliaments, each of which then elects the members of the Prussian Landtag. This way the more rural eastern provinces, which were always the main powerbase for the conservatives, would retain some influence on Prussian politics (like the smaller and more rural states in the US are intentionally overrepresented in the Senate). In return, the power of the Herrenhaus is somewhat reduced, though it would remain the representative body of the Prussian aristocracy. Otherwise – if only the electoral system is changed, but nothing else – you would have a Prussian parliament dominated by Social Democrats and Liberals (at least for now), but without much power compared to the Herrenhaus and the King, which would be a state of affairs that won‘t satisfy anyone.

Regarding the other political reforms in Germany, you mentioned in another update that monarch and Reichstag now have a roughly equal amount of influence over the government. How exactly is the chancellor selected from now on? Is he elected by the Reichstag, or still appointed by the Kaiser, except that the Reichstag now has the ability to ‚unelect‘ him through a vote of no confidence? I assume the latter, otherwise it wouldn‘t really be ‚equal‘. Is the relationship between the various rulers of the German states and their respective heads of government (Ministerpräsidenten) similar then?

Finally, what is meant by direct proportional representation single transferable voting? That‘s a lot of words, lol. I assume that‘s just a fancy way to describe a proportional system where one votes for a party or a list of candidates, instead of a single candidate?
 
I‘m honored that you took some inspirations from my ideas. So i assume the members of the Reichstag are elected in similar fashion to the way Senators were elected in the US prior to the passing of the 17th amendment in 1913, where they were elected by the state legislatures, instead of popular vote (except that in this case the German state parliaments vote for lists of candidates rather than individuals, i guess)? In that case, what is the constitutional role of the Bundesrat now? It was the representation of the German states, but the Reichstag has more or less taken that role now, with its members being elected by the state legislatures, which makes the Bundesrat somewhat superfluous. Will it be abolished, or changed into something else? I could see it being transformed into the representative body of the German ruling houses – a German House of Lords, basically, something which Germany didn‘t have before (at least not on the federal level).

You also mentioned that the franchise in Germany was extended on the local and state level, in addition to the constitutional reforms on the federal level. But what about the constitutions of the German states? Were there reforms there as well, other than extension of the franchise? Because none of the German states were parliamentary democracies as we know them today, not even the more liberal ones. Prussia especially is very important, since it has always been the conservative stronghold within Germany, and is by far the largest of the German states, not to mention that Wilhelm is also King of Prussia. Before the war the conservatives were vastly overrepresented in the Prussian parliament thanks to the Prussian electoral system – they must have known that any large scale electoral reform would collapse their numbers. However, i would argue that an even more important issue would actually be the Prussian Herrenhaus, which was the kingdom‘s Upper House and basically the Prussian equivalent to the British House of Lords, with most of its members being appointed by the King or having inherited their seat, but with much more power compared to the House of Lords. It was through the Herrenhaus that the King/Kaiser could basically veto anything he wanted in Prussia, and though Prussia in Germany as a whole.

If the reforms on the federal level were a compromise, then the same would probably be true for Prussia. In fact, the kingdom is large enough that one could implement constitutional and electoral reforms similar to the ones on the federal level – meaning that the Prussian provinces (Schleswig-Holstein, Brandenburg, Hanover, Silesia, the Rheinland etc.) might get their own regional parliaments, each of which then elects the members of the Prussian Landtag. This way the more rural eastern provinces, which were always the main powerbase for the conservatives, would retain some influence on Prussian politics (like the smaller and more rural states in the US are intentionally overrepresented in the Senate). In return, the power of the Herrenhaus is somewhat reduced, though it would remain the representative body of the Prussian aristocracy. Otherwise – if only the electoral system is changed, but nothing else – you would have a Prussian parliament dominated by Social Democrats and Liberals (at least for now), but without much power compared to the Herrenhaus and the King, which would be a state of affairs that won‘t satisfy anyone.

Regarding the other political reforms in Germany, you mentioned in another update that monarch and Reichstag now have a roughly equal amount of influence over the government. How exactly is the chancellor selected from now on? Is he elected by the Reichstag, or still appointed by the Kaiser, except that the Reichstag now has the ability to ‚unelect‘ him through a vote of no confidence? I assume the latter, otherwise it wouldn‘t really be ‚equal‘. Is the relationship between the various rulers of the German states and their respective heads of government (Ministerpräsidenten) similar then?

Finally, what is meant by direct proportional representation single transferable voting? That‘s a lot of words, lol. I assume that‘s just a fancy way to describe a proportional system where one votes for a party or a list of candidates, instead of a single candidate?

I found your ideas very interesting when you mentioned them a while back and was inspired, so it should be me who is thankful.

To be honest I hadn't quite thought this through to this level of specificity - it is difficult to do when I am juggling so many different changes in so many different places and covering so massive a swathe of events, so take some of this with a grain of salt, some of it might be a longer process happening over time and other parts have been implemented but weren't addressed in the update (because I hadn't thought about it yet). This means that any comments, corrections and clarifications are more than welcome. When we have finished discussing how this would work best, I will try to make up an Interlude update to include in the TL threadmarks.

My thought on the Bundesraat is that it is effectively merged with the Reichstag, so Germany becomes ruled at the federal level by a unitary parliament of state representatives. Regarding the local and state-level representatives, I actually think that might work better as a seperate structure from any governing house on state level, so at elections you vote for a series of state representatives - voted on at a local level (direct proportional representation voting means one-person-one-vote, single transferable vote means that you pick a number of representatives from most to least, with the candidate with fewest votes having their voters transfer their vote to the second person on the list, second fewest votes has his/her votes transfered to their second/third choice, etc. until a single representative holds some threshold of votes - spitballing here, but anywhere between 50-60% would make sense to me. You can read more about the various voting systems on wikipedia or elsewhere, that might be clearer than this mess of an explanation). Those representatives then elect figures from within their own body for the Reichstag. I hope that makes sense.

The State governments also receive reforms, and are forced towards something representating a democratic monarchical system similar to the federal level relationship between the Kaiser and the Reichstag. The important part is that while the Herrenhaus is retained, it finds its wings clipped during the constitutional reforms - along with the various other upper houses on a state level. The franchise for the lower houses are reformed to follow direct proportional representation as well, though the specific voting mechanism is left up to the individual state. I also find the idea of splitting Prussian government between a series of regional governments really interesting, so I think that makes a lot of sense to include as well.

You have it the wrong way around with regards to the Reichstag's relationship with the Kaiser (IIRC, it is a while since I wrote it) in that that the Reichstag elects a Chancellor and the Kaiser can dismiss him - although since late in the Great War the Kaiser has found himself increasingly insulated from actual decision-making by an alliance between powerful military figures like Max Hoffmann, the Crown Prince Wilhelm and a variety of Hohenzollern loyalists who wish to protect the dynasty and the Kaiser from himself. A similar system with the relationships between the German rulers and their heads of governments is implemented in all of the German states, although there is considerable variance in how much power and influence the individual excercises based on how they use these powers. That said, should a ruler prove particularly intransigent - for instance dismissing all appointed governmental heads without giving them a chance - the regional parliaments, the Kaiser (or his representatives) and the Reichstag might begin to get involved. Same for if it is the regional parliament stirring up shit.

Just finished update ninteen (yes, that is how much time I have lost and how much slower the going is now), where the US elections are addressed, events in Austria-Hungary play out, the Irish situation is explored and a massive amount of economic policy stuff is covered. It is wierd to be righting about stuff in places where events aren't going completely insane for a change - although there is plenty of crazy stuff in that update as well.
 
Regarding the local and state-level representatives, I actually think that might work better as a seperate structure from any governing house on state level, so at elections you vote for a series of state representatives - voted on at a local level (direct proportional representation voting means one-person-one-vote, single transferable vote means that you pick a number of representatives from most to least, with the candidate with fewest votes having their voters transfer their vote to the second person on the list, second fewest votes has his/her votes transfered to their second/third choice, etc. until a single representative holds some threshold of votes - spitballing here, but anywhere between 50-60% would make sense to me. You can read more about the various voting systems on wikipedia or elsewhere, that might be clearer than this mess of an explanation). Those representatives then elect figures from within their own body for the Reichstag. I hope that makes sense.

Hm, so like some kind of electoral college then, but instead of voting for a single person (like a president) they vote for members of the Reichstag?

You have it the wrong way around with regards to the Reichstag's relationship with the Kaiser (IIRC, it is a while since I wrote it) in that that the Reichstag elects a Chancellor and the Kaiser can dismiss him

Ah, so the reverse of the British situation then (and that of many other monarchies, i believe), where the monarch appoints the head of government, but has to take political majorities into account, to ensure the government has the confidence of parliament. In this case governments will have to ensure the confidence of the monarch instead. Interesting. I assume the leaders of the majority parties are still going to discuss potential candidates for chancellorship with the Kaiser beforehand then, to ensure he doesn‘t dismiss them afterward.

Edit: I‘m also a bit surprised that Germany has full female suffrage – IOTL not even France or Britain had it at the time (in fact, France didn‘t even have female suffrage until after WW2).
 
Hm, so like some kind of electoral college then, but instead of voting for a single person (like a president) they vote for members of the Reichstag?

Ah, so the reverse of the British situation then (and that of many other monarchies, i believe), where the monarch appoints the head of government, but has to take political majorities into account, to ensure the government has the confidence of parliament. In this case governments will have to ensure the confidence of the monarch instead. Interesting. I assume the leaders of the majority parties are still going to discuss potential candidates for chancellorship with the Kaiser beforehand then, to ensure he doesn‘t dismiss them afterward.

Edit: I‘m also a bit surprised that Germany has full female suffrage – IOTL not even France or Britain had it at the time (in fact, France didn‘t even have female suffrage until after WW2).

Yeah, that is the right comparison to make. Local representatives are directly voted on, then those representatives vote on state representatives for the Reichstag with the specifics of the representative voting methodology dependent on the individual state or sub-state where the election is taking place.

The majority parties will be discussing potential chancellors with the Kaiser before one is set forth, with it often being more of a back-and-forth than any one party dictating to the other. This should have the effect of actually strengthening the power of the Kaiser as long as it isn't abused, with the government having to maintain consistent contact and ensure that the Kaiser finds decisions acceptable to avoid having him dismiss the government. It means that the Kaiser is the one setting the limits, but not directing policy, with the government directing policy within the outlined constraints.

The US and UK passed legislation in favor of female suffrage with limitations. Keep in mind that Germany had a well developed suffrage movement and on the issue of women's rights Germany was generally pretty progressive. Here it is the caretaker government, similar to IOTL, which presses for female suffrage - most prominently by the SPD which had a quite strong bond to the suffragists IOTL and ITTL.

Basically it was one of the sections from the November Revolution which seems to have met with minimal resistance IOTL and had pretty broad support by this point.
 
The point - which you seem to be missing - is that while you can be harsh with the conditions, you have to observe the forms (as they were with the French after Napoleon, etc). Which were observed in 1871, and it took considerable effort (as in whole-hog indoctrination for everybody) for "revanche" to stay current. Even OTL, it had begun to wane by 1914.

And you think Germany wouldn't fall into the same mentality? I see little difference even if the Entente observed the forms I doubt Germany comes out much different
 
(10) I need to call on @Augenis for the invaluable discussions on Eastern Europe post-Great War in a German victory scenario for this. I have decided to take something of a middle path in regards to how great an amount of autonomy most of these states possess and how interfering the Germans are in local affairs. The defeat of the Polish uprising sees most the remaining Polish resistance collapse, with Pilsudski and various other Polish nationals still imprisoned as IOTL there isn't much that can be done to hold the line here. With Poland and Saxony's historic ties, I thought the Wettin candidate would work best, while Lithuania gets Urach - who just generally seems to be the best candidate available for Lithuania. As IOTL Adolph Friedrich becomes Duke of the United Baltic Duchies, though this time around he actually takes up residence there. At the same time, we see the appearance of Freikorps - but only in their mercenary role, serving as an outlet for those who don't think they will cope well with demobilization. They bring invaluable resources and capabilities to the Don Whites, greatly strengthening Brusilov's position.
:3

What are the borders of the Eastern European states? Who owns Vilnius?
 

Hnau

Banned
If the Central Powers face such an onerous Treaty of Copenhagen and the Allied armies enforcing it, and one or the other communist faction faces the forces of the Allied intervention (perhaps pitting the two against one another), why wouldn't they join up instead? Molotov-Ribbentrop gambit in 1921.
 
Much more likely to see a Walloon IRA and a Flemish one.

I frankly doubt that the Flemish would rise in case of such a partition. 100 years ago the economic situation of 2018 was reversed: Wallonia was much richer and the Belgian elite was speaking French. There was much resentment by Flemish people about the language. In Flanders people still tell stories about French-speaking officers sending soldiers to die because they couldn’t understand orders.
 
:3

What are the borders of the Eastern European states? Who owns Vilnius?

Lithuania owns Vilnius and Poland stretches to the Bug. The UBD stretches across Courland-Semigalia, Livonia and Estonia.

If the Central Powers face such an onerous Treaty of Copenhagen and the Allied armies enforcing it, and one or the other communist faction faces the forces of the Allied intervention (perhaps pitting the two against one another), why wouldn't they join up instead? Molotov-Ribbentrop gambit in 1921.

I am not sure what you mean. The Treaty of Copenhagen is largely viewed as a triumph for the Central Powers and a failure for the Allies, at least in Britain and America. Right now fear that the Russian revolution might spread is the single greatest fear for all of the former combatants so there is no way in hell they would even consider such an alliance.

I frankly doubt that the Flemish would rise in case of such a partition. 100 years ago the economic situation of 2018 was reversed: Wallonia was much richer and the Belgian elite was speaking French. There was much resentment by Flemish people about the language. In Flanders people still tell stories about French-speaking officers sending soldiers to die because they couldn’t understand orders.

Of the two sides, the Flemish are definitely going to be more open to incorporation into the Netherlands. That said, you will inevitably have some form of resistance and a minor national movement dreaming of a return to independence - maybe just as Flanders, maybe as Belgium.
 
I frankly doubt that the Flemish would rise in case of such a partition. 100 years ago the economic situation of 2018 was reversed: Wallonia was much richer and the Belgian elite was speaking French. There was much resentment by Flemish people about the language. In Flanders people still tell stories about French-speaking officers sending soldiers to die because they couldn’t understand orders.

On the other hand, not wanting to be part of the Netherlands is the whole reason Belgium was a thing. Religion would matter less by then, but the resentment is probably still there in some way.
 
On the other hand, not wanting to be part of the Netherlands is the whole reason Belgium was a thing. Religion would matter less by then, but the resentment is probably still there in some way.

The political partie in the Netherlands were organized by creed. The RKSP (Roman Catholic party) was stable at about 30% in the Interbellum and part of every single government coalition. With the addition of Flanders the number of Catholics in the Netherlands would more than double.
The Catholics in the South would be in an excellent position to push their political agenda in the bigger Netherlands.
 

Hnau

Banned
I am not sure what you mean. The Treaty of Copenhagen is largely viewed as a triumph for the Central Powers and a failure for the Allies, at least in Britain and America. Right now fear that the Russian revolution might spread is the single greatest fear for all of the former combatants so there is no way in hell they would even consider such an alliance.

Woops I responded to an older installment! Wasn't thinking. Hmm... I wonder how the Polish are going to treat this
 
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