Munich Shuffle: 1938-1942

[CV(N)-6]

I think the impact of the Germans being temporarily stopped instead of just bulldozing the Allies will lead to a lot more French ships and colonies going FF, if there is even an armistice. Alt-Dunkirk should go better given the better overall shape and position of the Allied forces.

 

[Garrison]

Let’s hope Halder lived up to his name and is charged with holding France as garrison commander.

Well his departure marks the point that any last shred of power or influence the General Staff vanished. From this point on they are basically Hitler's 'office boys'.

 

[Starinski]

So where will the sickle cut going to end?
With the Allies on the Scheldt and not on the Dyle, the Germans are performing a flank attack, and are not taking the Allies in the rear like OTL.

 

[Garrison]

So where will the sickle cut going to end?
With the Allies on the Scheldt and not on the Dyle, the Germans are performing a flank attack, and are not taking the Allies in the rear like OTL.

Well this version of Sickle Cut will be similar in conception to OTL, but it will run into some more obstacles than the original did.

 

[Lexijag]

Looking forward to the next post. In theory it could lead to a much higher take of British forces

 

[Errolwi]

OTL the Aussie and Kiwi Brigade groups arrived in Scotland mid-June, don't see any reason for that to change. There will possibly be even less stuff to equip them with ITTL if more has gone to France.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

By the evening of the 23rd Von Rundstedt anxiously conferred with Field Marshal von Brauchitsch...

Von Brauchitsch was promoted to Field Marshal in July 1940.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

[7] I decided not to give it a ‘Case’ name to make things less confusing.

AIUI, FALL ("case") was the German term for a strategic plan. Unternehmen ("undertaking") was the term for an operational plan. FALL GELB was the general plan for attacking in the west.

 

[Garrison]

OTL the Aussie and Kiwi Brigade groups arrived in Scotland mid-June, don't see any reason for that to change. There will possibly be even less stuff to equip them with ITTL if more has gone to France.

But there's a lot more stuff to start with, and we will see what happens to the BEF's equipment in due course.

AIUI, FALL ("case") was the German term for a strategic plan. Unternehmen ("undertaking") was the term for an operational plan. FALL GELB was the general plan for attacking in the west.

Thank you.

Von Brauchitsch was promoted to Field Marshal in July 1940.

I have corrected that and the reference to Daladier in the previous update, von Brauchitsch may have to wait for that promotion ITTL.

 

[Garrison]

So just a quick post on the state of play. Tuesday's update is good to go and doing some editing for Thursday's. Also the plan to add an update for later on Iraq, Syria and Iran has turned into one each. And I've Also started doing a little work on the opening of the sequel idea. So there's a lot to come.

 

[McAuslan_in_the_Rough]

Very excited about where this is going to go.

Are we going to have a Battle of Britain? Since it looks like France won't fall until July, the window of opportunity for Sea Lion probably gets too narrow, so there is no reason to try and gain air superiority over Southern England. But the Germans might try to break British morale by going after urban centers right away.

 

[Garrison]

Very excited about where this is going to go.

Are we going to have a Battle of Britain? Since it looks like France won't fall until July, the window of opportunity for Sea Lion probably gets too narrow, so there is no reason to try and gain air superiority over Southern England. But the Germans might try to break British morale by going after urban centers right away.

Well obviously I'm not going to discuss it in detail now but there will be some updates after the Battle of France that cover what happens during the end of the Summer and the Autumn in terms of British and German planning.

 

[nbcman]

OTL the Aussie and Kiwi Brigade groups arrived in Scotland mid-June, don't see any reason for that to change. There will possibly be even less stuff to equip them with ITTL if more has gone to France.

I believe that they were destined for Palestine but were rerouted due to OTL events.

 

[Garrison]

I believe that they were destined for Palestine but were rerouted due to OTL events.

Well I wish I had realized that before I wrote the updates about Iraq and Syria. Still its a rough draft and I may work them in given that those updates won't be needed for a while assuming that there's less panic and Brooke will get to voice his very clear opinion about sending any more units to the 'situation' in France.

 

[Errolwi]

I believe that they were destined for Palestine but were rerouted due to OTL events.

Were intended to complete training in the Middle East with the previous units sent yes. But couldn't go via Red Sea until Italians were not a threat. The NZ units had only trained as battalions in NZ, so needed more training. I think Australians were similar.

 

[stubear1012]

With the changes in this timeline, maybe we can see the following happen:

"In October 1938, Daladier opened secret talks with the Americans on how to bypass the Neutrality Acts and to allow the French to buy American aircraft to make up for the underproductive French aircraft industry.[21] Daladier commented in October 1938, "If I had three or four thousand aircraft, Munich would never have happened". He was most anxious to buy American war planes as the only way to strengthen the French Air Force.[22] Major problems in the talks were how the French would pay for the American planes and how to bypass the Neutrality Acts.[23]"

In addition, France had defaulted on its World War I debts in 1932 and so fell foul of the 1934 Johnson Act, which banned American loans to nations that had defaulted on their World War I debts.[24] In February 1939, the French offered to cede their possessions in the Caribbean and the Pacific, together with a lump sum payment of 10 billion francs, in exchange for the unlimited right to buy American aircraft on credit.[25]

After tortuous negotiations, an arrangement was worked out in the spring of 1939 to allow the French to place huge orders with the American aircraft industry, but as most of the aircraft ordered had not arrived in France by 1940, the Americans arranged for French orders to be diverted to the British.[26]"

 

[Garrison]

With the changes in this timeline, maybe we can see the following happen:

"In October 1938, Daladier opened secret talks with the Americans on how to bypass the Neutrality Acts and to allow the French to buy American aircraft to make up for the underproductive French aircraft industry.[21] Daladier commented in October 1938, "If I had three or four thousand aircraft, Munich would never have happened". He was most anxious to buy American war planes as the only way to strengthen the French Air Force.[22] Major problems in the talks were how the French would pay for the American planes and how to bypass the Neutrality Acts.[23]"

In addition, France had defaulted on its World War I debts in 1932 and so fell foul of the 1934 Johnson Act, which banned American loans to nations that had defaulted on their World War I debts.[24] In February 1939, the French offered to cede their possessions in the Caribbean and the Pacific, together with a lump sum payment of 10 billion francs, in exchange for the unlimited right to buy American aircraft on credit.[25]

After tortuous negotiations, an arrangement was worked out in the spring of 1939 to allow the French to place huge orders with the American aircraft industry, but as most of the aircraft ordered had not arrived in France by 1940, the Americans arranged for French orders to be diverted to the British.[26]"

That fits, as I am allowing that many aircraft put on order with the USA by France will end up elsewhere, probably in far flung corners of the Empire, and I may well work in a more explicit reference in the post Battle of France RAF update, though there's a lot in there already.

 

[stubear1012]

That fits, as I am allowing that many aircraft put on order with the USA by France will end up elsewhere, probably in far flung corners of the Empire, and I may well work in a more explicit reference in the post Battle of France RAF update, though there's a lot in there already.

Thank you! I am looking forward to seeing how you develop this timeline.

 

[nbcman]

Were intended to complete training in the Middle East with the previous units sent yes. But couldn't go via Red Sea until Italians were not a threat. The NZ units had only trained as battalions in NZ, so needed more training. I think Australians were similar.

There were two convoys that were sent of Australian and NZ troops. The first convoy which held the 17th Australian Brigade, US2, did go to Egypt in mid-May 1940 while the second convoy which held the 18th Australian Brigade and the New Zealanders, US3, were initially going to Egypt but their destination shifted to the UK on 19 May 1940. See:

Second Australian Imperial Force in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The first of the division's three brigades to deploy, the 16th, sailed from Fremantle, Western Australia on 20 January 1940 and arrived in Egypt on 12 February.[30] In late April, the British Government became concerned that Italy was about to enter the war alongside Germany following the successful German invasion of Norway. At this time, the two convoys transporting the 6th Division's other brigades to the Middle East were en route. Convoy US 2, which was transporting the 17th Brigade, was in the Indian Ocean and Convoy US 3 was off the Australian coast.[31][32] Convoy US 3 was carrying 8,000 Australian soldiers assigned to the 18th Brigade and other units as well as 6,000 New Zealanders.[33][34][32]

On 1 May, Anthony Eden, the British Secretary of State for Dominion Affairs, sent the Australian Government a cable proposing that both convoys be diverted to the UK. Eden justified his proposal on the grounds of the undesirability of sending convoys past Italian naval bases in the Red Sea due to the risk of attack, and the possibility of it becoming difficult to send supplies from the UK to equip units in the Middle East.[35] In response, the Australian Government directed that Convoy US 2 be held at Colombo and US 3 at Fremantle until it received advice on the war situation from the British and Australian Chiefs of Staff. The government had a strong preference for the AIF to be concentrated in one place, so it could fight under Australian command.[36] The Australian Chiefs of Staff initially supported the proposal to send both convoys to the UK on the grounds that it would result in the brigades being deployed to the main theatre of war, would ease the problems associated with equipping these units and would encourage volunteers for another AIF division which was being formed at the time.[37] However, on 4 May the British Chiefs of Staff recommended that both convoys proceed to the Middle East. The Australian Chiefs of Staff subsequently endorsed this position. As a result, on 8 May the Australian Government directed the convoys to continue to the Middle East.[31][38] Convoy US 2 arrived in Egypt on 18 May.[39]

Convoy US 3's destination changed following the German invasion of France on 10 May 1940, which further increased the probability that Italy would enter the war.[40] On 15 May, the British Government proposed again that Convoy US 3 be diverted to the UK. The Australian Chiefs of Staff endorsed this proposal, but the War Cabinet remained reluctant to split the AIF. Instead, the War Cabinet asked whether the troops could be sent to either South Africa or North-West India to complete their training before joining the 6th Division in Egypt.[31][40] Several ministers believed that the British Government was seeking to divide the AIF into separate elements which would operate under direct British command.[41] After being advised by the British Government that accommodation and equipment for the troops were not likely to be available in India or South Africa, the War Cabinet agreed on 19 May for Convoy US 3 to proceed to the UK. At this time the Allied forces in France were rapidly retreating.[42] The New Zealand Government had agreed in April for its soldiers on Convoy US 3 to be sent to the UK in the event that the ships were unable to enter the Red Sea.[43]

 

[Garrison]

There were two convoys that were sent of Australian and NZ troops. The first convoy which held the 17th Australian Brigade, US2, did go to Egypt in mid-May 1940 while the second convoy which held the 18th Australian Brigade and the New Zealanders, US3, were initially going to Egypt but their destination shifted to the UK on 19 May 1940. See:

Second Australian Imperial Force in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So possible with the 'stable' situation in France they went on to the Middle East, or they could still go to the UK to work up for deployment to France and they might be deployed as part of the effort to build up for the offensive that never happened,