Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

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That is true. Still, I think their experiences in Malaya will change Japanese tank doctrine and design. For starters, for medium tanks I would expect the design for the Type 1 to never get off the drawing-board, thanks to its anaemic gun (the same used in the Type 97, which will be running up against the British Matilda IIs). Or maybe they'd be rushed into service, because they're better than anything else the Japanese have on their books right now.
On the subject of Japanese tanks Inside the Chieftain's Hatch had an interesting video on "Japanese Armour Doctrine, 1918-1942" which gives an overview of what was developed & why.
 
That is true. Still, I think their experiences in Malaya will change Japanese tank doctrine and design. For starters, for medium tanks I would expect the design for the Type 1 to never get off the drawing-board, thanks to its anaemic gun (the same used in the Type 97, which will be running up against the British Matilda IIs). Or maybe they'd be rushed into service, because they're better than anything else the Japanese have on their books right now.
They would struggle to rush anything into service. If they can't get their oil they are screwed.
I am going to assume Singapore falls because of the loss of the DEI. There will be so many demands on limited resources I can't see a tank winning.
OTOH some kind of anti tank weapon may be easier to rush into service.
 
Instead of giving the captured Italian tanks to the Greeks and sending the Matilda II's to Malaysia, flip it around so we see a bunch of L3/35 and M13/40 tanks squaring off against an inferior opponent for once.
 
They would struggle to rush anything into service. If they can't get their oil they are screwed.
I am going to assume Singapore falls because of the loss of the DEI. There will be so many demands on limited resources I can't see a tank winning.
OTOH some kind of anti tank weapon may be easier to rush into service.
Always surprised the Japanese never got given or developed HEAT and recoilless technology - a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7.5_cm_Leichtgeschütz_40 would be a perfect fit for their doctrine. Apparently they were experimenting with 81mm and 105mm versions at war end but the Germans could have gifted them the design pre-war.
 
I would like to post on butterflies.

Judging from the last update, it seems that the Commonwealth forces in North Africa will be equipped with british tanks. Good tanks that have proved their mettle. Therefore, I think there is little reason to send M3 Stuarts in the Middle East. In OTL 315 Stuarts were sent by late October 1941. One could argue that the Stuarts could be given to the Greeks, but I doubt the wisdom of such action. In any case the Stuarts won't be deemed as a frontline tank to face Italians and Germans - not when the british industry produced more than adequate numbers of superior tanks. The Greeks can be trained in captured italian tanks and british leftovers (A9, A10, VI, VII). In time, they can transition to modern frontline designs. After all, there is no emergency to form a Greek Armoured Division.

I think what makes sense is to send the Stuarts to the east. The Australians are trying to form an Armoured Division. Along with the 50 Matildas, the Stuarts can solve an important commonwealth issue. At the very least, the 1st Armoured Brigade (AUS) can be ready in Malaya by November. Perhaps the 2nd Armoured Brigade (AUS) can be ready in time as well. I don't know what other shortages existed. But at the worst case senario, a fully equipped armoured brigade is more than doable.

If there are any Stuarts left, a client that would really want them will be the Dutch in Java. In any case, I find it very plausible that these 315 Stuarts will end up in SE Asia.

If two veteran divisions are headed to Malaya, then the campaign there will be won. They will be at the very least equal to the japanese formations and with superior firepower. The green Indian and Australian formations can hold quiet sectors of the front or do yeoman's work, so that the veteran formations can be concentrated and strike with superior numbers.

Moreover, as mentioned above, Wavell's job seems pretty secure. Auchinleck may be utilized in Malaya since he has a lot of experience with the Indian Army. At that time, his career was on the rise and he cannot have a command in the Middle East.

Last but not least, if by February 1942 the British are doing good in Malaya, then they will have enough forces for Java as well. After all, the IJA used two divisions in Java. Even a single veteran Allied division would tip the balance at that campaign.
 
. For starters, for medium tanks I would expect the design for the Type 1 to never get off the drawing-board, thanks to its anaemic gun (the same used in the Type 97, which will be running up against the British Matilda IIs).

Interesting notions but as I am no expert on Japanese armoured vehicles :( , let alone the detailed family tree, I looked these up on Wiki 🤔 and others

If I'm reading those correctly, the sequence of the Japanese "medium" tanks is different to what you have described
  • Type 89-I-Go, designed 1928, 57mm Type 90 gun with poor AP but reasonable HE
  • Type 97 Chi-Ha, designed 1936, specified for a 47mm gun but in fact fitted with 57mm as above (300 upgraded as below later)
  • Type 97 ShinHoTo Chi-Ha, designed 1939-40 after Khakin Gol , fitted with a higher velocity 47mm. It replaced Ch-Ha as the main build in '42.
  • Type 1 Chi-He, newly designed hull in 1940 also with the same 47mm but steel priorities meant only 170 built from 43 onwards but never in action
Unless there are more butterflies, I think the Japanese will have a mix of Chin-Ha with 57mm and Improved Chin Ha with 47mm for their medium tanks in TTL Malaya/Burma plus of course any lighter armour.
Caveat: The ratios may well depend on what intelligence the Japanese can glean about British armoured forces iTTL.

If they encounter Matildas or better in number, I can certainly see them speeding up the conversion of the basic Chin Ha to Improved in 1942
and given the problems with steel, perhaps even cancelling the Type 1 as you have suggested
but AFAICS it won't be because it carries an old model gun
 
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marathag

Banned
In any case the Stuarts won't be deemed as a frontline tank to face Italians and Germans - not when the british industry produced more than adequate numbers of superior tanks.
What they were, was a faster, reliable Cruiser, something OTL British Tanks were not, thru the Covenanter.
Vickers has a more reliable, faster Infantry Tank. They still need an exploitation tank. British Armored Doctrine still hasn't changed much
 
Always surprised the Japanese never got given or developed HEAT and recoilless technology - a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7.5_cm_Leichtgeschütz_40 would be a perfect fit for their doctrine. Apparently they were experimenting with 81mm and 105mm versions at war end but the Germans could have gifted them the design pre-war.
The First practical HEAT weapons were developed by the British in 39 - the No 68 AT Grenade which could pen 2" and the Germans using Shaped Charge Warheads on the Eban Emael fort in 1940 and started introducing HEAT rounds (as you say) for their 75mm/24 on the early PZ4 and STUG.

The Japanese did have HEAT rounds for their 70mm type 92 battalion gun/howitzer from 44 but apparently it was a bit pants
 
I would like to post on butterflies.

Judging from the last update, it seems that the Commonwealth forces in North Africa will be equipped with british tanks. Good tanks that have proved their mettle. Therefore, I think there is little reason to send M3 Stuarts in the Middle East. In OTL 315 Stuarts were sent by late October 1941. One could argue that the Stuarts could be given to the Greeks, but I doubt the wisdom of such action. In any case the Stuarts won't be deemed as a frontline tank to face Italians and Germans - not when the british industry produced more than adequate numbers of superior tanks. The Greeks can be trained in captured italian tanks and british leftovers (A9, A10, VI, VII). In time, they can transition to modern frontline designs. After all, there is no emergency to form a Greek Armoured Division.

I think what makes sense is to send the Stuarts to the east. The Australians are trying to form an Armoured Division. Along with the 50 Matildas, the Stuarts can solve an important commonwealth issue. At the very least, the 1st Armoured Brigade (AUS) can be ready in Malaya by November. Perhaps the 2nd Armoured Brigade (AUS) can be ready in time as well. I don't know what other shortages existed. But at the worst case senario, a fully equipped armoured brigade is more than doable.

If there are any Stuarts left, a client that would really want them will be the Dutch in Java. In any case, I find it very plausible that these 315 Stuarts will end up in SE Asia.

If two veteran divisions are headed to Malaya, then the campaign there will be won. They will be at the very least equal to the japanese formations and with superior firepower. The green Indian and Australian formations can hold quiet sectors of the front or do yeoman's work, so that the veteran formations can be concentrated and strike with superior numbers.

Moreover, as mentioned above, Wavell's job seems pretty secure. Auchinleck may be utilized in Malaya since he has a lot of experience with the Indian Army. At that time, his career was on the rise and he cannot have a command in the Middle East.

Last but not least, if by February 1942 the British are doing good in Malaya, then they will have enough forces for Java as well. After all, the IJA used two divisions in Java. Even a single veteran Allied division would tip the balance at that campaign.
If the campaign in Malaya up to February 42 goes well, with at least a holding position half way down the peninsula, then holding either Sumatra or Burma is required to hold Malaya & Singapore long term.
One or the other is needed to secure a supply line.
If Malaya holds, then holding Burma is much easier, but does require some troops.
If Malaya holds, then holding Sumatra is much easier, but does require some troops.
If Java holds as well as Malaya, then Sumatra is safe.

Probably best (from the British point of view) to have reinforcements training in Burma, for use either as defence, or to reinforce Malaya if required.
That way they are holding British Empire territory with Empire troops, under Empire command.
Sending forces to Java would be using Empire troops to hold Dutch territory, and putting them under Dutch command.
Any extras after holding Malaya and Burma (unlikely), can be offered to reinforce or garrison Sumatra, so that the Dutch can concentrate on Java.
(A butterfly to get the main parts of the Hong Kong garrison to Sumatra would be good, and save them from being needlessly obliterated. Every analysis said HK was indefensible, and the Japanese knew it as well. A deterrent can only work if it is credible - garrisoning HK was pointless.)

If the Australian Government believes Malaya is secure, they would almost certainly reinforce Rabaul and other places in the Solomans and Papua New Guinea rather than the DEI.
 
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Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
HK is lost

But can do a lot better if the officers can be pursuaded it will not take a week to get from the frontier to the 'Gin Drinkers' line.....
 
If I'm reading those correctly, the sequence of the Japanese "medium" tanks is different to what you have described
  • Type 89-I-Go, designed 1928, 57mm Type 90 gun with poor AP but reasonable HE
  • Type 97 Chi-Ha, designed 1936, specified for a 47mm gun but in fact fitted with 57mm as above (300 upgraded as below later)
  • Type 97 ShinHoTo Chi-Ha, designed 1939-40 after Khakin Gol , fitted with a higher velocity 47mm. It replaced Ch-Ha as the main build in '42.
  • Type 1 Chi-He, newly designed hull in 1940 also with the same 47mm but steel priorities meant only 170 built from 43 onwards but never in action
Unless there are more butterflies, I think the Japanese will have a mix of Chin-Ha with 57mm and Improved Chin Ha with 47mm for their medium tanks in TTL Malaya/Burma plus of course any lighter armour.
Caveat: The ratios may well depend on what intelligence the Japanese can glean about British armoured forces iTTL.
Note the 47mm can penetrate 55mm of armour at 100m. That would allow it to penetrate the rear armour of the Matilda II at that range, and maybe, with a lucky shot, the side armour as well. Not that this is at 100m, and further out and the Matilda II is going to be all but impregnable.
 
Note the 47mm can penetrate 55mm of armour at 100m. That would allow it to penetrate the rear armour of the Matilda II at that range, and maybe, with a lucky shot, the side armour as well. Not that this is at 100m, and further out and the Matilda II is going to be all but impregnable.
Which is still Tiger level of disparity with a more reliable tank as opponent so its not to much help for the Japanese.

HK is lost

But can do a lot better if the officers can be pursuaded it will not take a week to get from the frontier to the 'Gin Drinkers' line.....
Probably best to accept that fact, get out everyone you can and try to cause a meatgrinder to do as much damage as possible to the Japanese units.
 
Which is still Tiger level of disparity with a more reliable tank as opponent so its not to much help for the Japanese.
I sort of meant it like that. Not only will Japanese need a new tank, they'll also need a new gun, because their existing ones are worthless.
 
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