I would like to post on butterflies.
Judging from the last update, it seems that the Commonwealth forces in North Africa will be equipped with british tanks. Good tanks that have proved their mettle. Therefore, I think there is little reason to send M3 Stuarts in the Middle East. In OTL
315 Stuarts were sent by late October 1941. One could argue that the Stuarts could be given to the Greeks, but I doubt the wisdom of such action. In any case the Stuarts won't be deemed as a frontline tank to face Italians and Germans - not when the british industry produced more than adequate numbers of superior tanks. The Greeks can be trained in captured italian tanks and british leftovers (A9, A10, VI, VII). In time, they can transition to modern frontline designs. After all, there is no emergency to form a Greek Armoured Division.
I think what makes sense is to send the Stuarts to the east. The Australians are trying to form an Armoured Division. Along with the 50 Matildas, the Stuarts can solve an important commonwealth issue. At the very least, the 1st Armoured Brigade (AUS) can be ready in Malaya by November. Perhaps the 2nd Armoured Brigade (AUS) can be ready in time as well. I don't know what other shortages existed. But at the worst case senario, a fully equipped armoured brigade is more than doable.
If there are any Stuarts left, a client that would really want them will be the Dutch in Java. In any case, I find it very plausible that these 315 Stuarts will end up in SE Asia.
If two veteran divisions are headed to Malaya, then the campaign there will be won. They will be at the very least equal to the japanese formations and with superior firepower. The green Indian and Australian formations can hold quiet sectors of the front or do yeoman's work, so that the veteran formations can be concentrated and strike with superior numbers.
Moreover, as mentioned above, Wavell's job seems pretty secure. Auchinleck may be utilized in Malaya since he has a lot of experience with the Indian Army. At that time, his career was on the rise and he cannot have a command in the Middle East.
Last but not least, if by February 1942 the British are doing good in Malaya, then they will have enough forces for Java as well. After all, the IJA used two divisions in Java. Even a single veteran Allied division would tip the balance at that campaign.