Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

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I have been thinking about logistics. The British haven't collapse in late March. If anything they can continue extending the Western Desert Railway during that time. But the question, is how quickly?

Colonel Anderson and Major Smith ‘recced’ the proposed route and replied that the only obstacles to a quick job were our own and enemy minefields, plus a hostile garrison at Halfaya Pass. Remove them, and with material arriving as promised on 7 January, there would be a line ready for operating to El Adem on 23 March. The first leg, Misheifa to Capuzzo, involved laying 86 miles of track in 53 days.
source: http://nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-WH2Engr-c9.html

I believe that by late June the railroad could be extended to just south of Tobruk at El Adem. If there is an alt-Crusader in October-November 1941, then there is a very good chance to have a significantly extended railway in Cyrenaica.
 
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I have been thinking about logistics. The British haven't collapse in late March. If anything they can continue extending the Western Desert Railway during that time. But the question, is how quickly?


source: http://nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-WH2Engr-c9.html

I believe that by late June the railroad could be extended to just south of Tobruk at El Adem. If there is an alt-Crusader in October-November 1941, then there is a very good chance to have a significantly extended railway in Cyrenaica.
Yep. Further, you have two lines running out of Benghazi that can be extended, and if you have the men, you could even start railways from other other cities along the coast.
 
Yep. Further, you have two lines running out of Benghazi that can be extended, and if you have the men, you could even start railways from other other cities along the coast.
The British Command did have the men and material available. If for the sake of argument, the British use the resources they invested in the Haifa-Tripoli railway and to build a road and railway to connect Aqaba to the Hejaz Railway to expand the Benghazi-Soluch railroad, then it can be extremely helpful for Allied logistics.
 
4 May 1941. Ras El Ali, Libya.
4 May 1941. Ras El Ali, Libya.

During the night, General Rommel’s impatience at not being able to strike the British when they were occupied by the events in Greece was beginning to show. It was only through the intercession of General Paulus that Rommel didn’t strip General Streich of command of the 5th Light Division. Paulus could well understand Streich’s reticence about attacking a dug-in force that was at least his equal. The vulnerability of the majority of panzers to the British 2-pdr guns made a panzer led attack likely to fail. Paulus knew that with the planned invasion of the Soviet Union that the numbers of panzers that would be shipped to North Africa would always be limited. The few months since the 5th Light Division had arrived in Tripoli had thrown up all sorts of problems which hadn’t really been considered, no one had thought of the panzers operating in a hot, sandy climate. Now that many of these problems had been solved, such as new air filters fitted to deal with dust and sand, the panzers were more reliable. This meant that 15th Panzer Division was likely to be fit for action quite quickly, but it seemed that General Rommel was determined to throw 5th Light Division away on a frontal assault on a strongly held British position. The losses to the German and Italian units the previous day were already going to be very difficult to replace.

The fact that the British had advanced seemed to suggest that they felt strong, even with all that had happened in Greece. In every encounter the German army had had with the British, the Wehrmacht had come away victorious, but it had always had a steep cost. The consensus among those who had examined the actions against the British had found that their equipment and training were good, especially in defence, but that their doctrine and tactics were lacking. What the OKH wanted was for Rommel to keep the Italians from suffering yet another defeat. Throwing away the best part of 5th Light Division in an unnecessary fight wouldn’t help fulfil that expectation.

The British had bested the Italians pretty easily, but Paulus and the German High Command were of the opinion that they wouldn’t have it so easy against the Germans. Which was why the Afrika Korps was here. Paulus eventually made it clear to Rommel that if he didn’t do what Berlin had sent him to do, then they would send someone else who would. The British attack had been thrown back, it was time to bring back the 5th Light and Ariete Divisions to the prepared defensive positions. Let the British batter their heads off a strong position, far from their supply bases, if they felt were strong enough. Then, once they were out on a limb, Rommel could let loose his mobile forces in a counter punch that would throw them right back to Tobruk and beyond. Rommel, very reluctantly, agreed to follow Paulus’ advice. In a letter to his wife he was able to express his frustration safely, and was delighted when Paulus was called back to Berlin.

General Gambier-Parry’s force therefore, found that instead of the expected attack, the Italian and German Divisions disengaged and by mid-morning the British and Indian troops found themselves no longer under siege. Once again Brigadier Scott-Cockburn was keen to chase the Italians back up the road to Nofilia. But Gambier-Parry, having been on the radio to both Generals O’Connor and Wavell, had decided that Ras El Ali would continue to be held in force.

Once the 7th Armoured Division, 6th Infantry Division and 4th Indian Division were ready for the next phase of the advance, they could use the positions currently held by Gambier-Parry’s unit as their starting point. General Wavell had noted that the near loss of 3rd Motor Brigade was due in part to using the Brigade as the basic battle formation. It was clear from the fighting the day before, that acting with anything less than a full Division would invite the Germans to deal with things piecemeal. The fact was that Operation Brevity could very easily have become a disaster. Instead, it could be shown as a success, driving the British position in North Africa closer to Tripoli, and holding off the attacks of both a German and Italian Division.

General O’Connor was keen on moving the 9th Australian Division up from their positions at El Agheila, to take over the defensive positions at Ras El Ali. Wavell could see that that would have the beneficial effect of allowing Gambier-Parry’s force to rest and resupply. However, Wavell was worried that the excellent defensive position at the salt pans, behind which large supply dumps were being readied for the next phase of the plan, might be more vulnerable by moving the Australians forward. Wavell had taken to calling the force commanded by Gambier-Parry as 22nd Division, and he was aware that their position could still be outflanked by the Germans through the desert. If El Agheila wasn’t properly protected, then the initiative could be taken by the Germans. 22nd Division was mobile enough to strike in any direction, and so keeping them where they were, while building up their Field Supply Depots, would give the next phase a good starting point.

With the German roadblock gone, the supply convoy for the 3rd Motor Brigade were able to come forward, along with the Indian Cavalry Battalion and a battery of a Light Anti-Aircraft Regiment, to help with the resupply and defence. At the same time the RASC and ROAC lorries that had set up the Field Supply Depot made their way back, with all the wounded, to begin the process of bringing forward more of the stocks needed for the next phase of the advance towards Tripoli.
 
Still not happy with this. OTL Brevity eventually was a complete bust, with the gains made initially lost in German counterattacks. Here this has gone better, but not the success desired. While Paulus was in North Africa at this point, would Rommel have agreed as he did here? That is one the many 'maybes aye, maybes naw' that alternative history throws up.
Allan
 
Still not happy with this. OTL Brevity eventually was a complete bust, with the gains made initially lost in German counterattacks. Here this has gone better, but not the success desired. While Paulus was in North Africa at this point, would Rommel have agreed as he did here? That is one the many 'maybes aye, maybes naw' that alternative history throws up.
Allan
I feel like things have drifted enough that this implausible-in-OTL decision is plausible ITTL. I agree that it doesn't seem like 'the Rommel thing to do', but people make Out-of-Character decisions in their own lives all the time, and ITTL Rommel is going to be distinct from OTL Rommel anyway.
 
Still not happy with this. OTL Brevity eventually was a complete bust, with the gains made initially lost in German counterattacks. Here this has gone better, but not the success desired. While Paulus was in North Africa at this point, would Rommel have agreed as he did here? That is one the many 'maybes aye, maybes naw' that alternative history throws up.
Allan

Don't be too hard on yourself. I don't comment a lot here, but I read every update and appreciate the work you're putting into this excellent timeline.
 
I am of the opinion that the chapter is excellent as it throws the art of logistics into the readers minds. It is an often neglected part of the military. No victory is battle is ordained, instead it comes from the most maligned person in the wae.
 
Still not happy with this. OTL Brevity eventually was a complete bust, with the gains made initially lost in German counterattacks. Here this has gone better, but not the success desired. While Paulus was in North Africa at this point, would Rommel have agreed as he did here? That is one the many 'maybes aye, maybes naw' that alternative history throws up.
Allan
Don't be too hard on yourself. I don't comment a lot here, but I read every update and appreciate the work you're putting into this excellent timeline.
With a superior officer on the spot Rommel doesn't have a choice but to do what he's told, so yes he would grit his teeth and obey orders or risk being replaced.
 
Still not happy with this. OTL Brevity eventually was a complete bust, with the gains made initially lost in German counterattacks. Here this has gone better, but not the success desired. While Paulus was in North Africa at this point, would Rommel have agreed as he did here? That is one the many 'maybes aye, maybes naw' that alternative history throws up.

I think you did a fine and more than plausible job.

Rommel was a political creature and his rise reflects not only his abilities but also being political savvy. I don't think he would go against Paulus in such a brazen manner. After all Paulus went to Tripolitania only temporarily. After he is gone, then Rommel can do a "reconnaissance-in-force" in his manner.

What is interesting is the formation of the 22nd Division and an earlier deployment of the 6th Division. Even in OTL the British had the infantry for two full divisions. What was needed were signal, transport, engineer units along with additional artillery. If there is less invasion panic, there is no reason why such units could not have been sent to Egypt months before their OTL departure. There is also no need to replace the losses of the OTL loss of Cyrenaica and supply Tobruk under Stuka threat. Thus, I think shipping would be available. Also for once, I doubt the Tiger Convoy would be sent via the Med.

At this point, the 50th Northumbrian is also en route to Egypt. Soon, either after a victorious Battle of Crete or by butterflying the battle altogether, the Australians and New Zealanders will be back to Egypt. While they replace their losses and getting new equipment they can act as a garrison while the 6th and 22nd are in Cyrenaica. I think they can be rebuilt sooner since without a defeat in Crete they will have suffered fewer losses and they have retained part of their equipment compared to to OTL/

To be honest, I think the developments so far butterfly the need for a Syria-Lebanon Campaign. Vichy Syria with the British close to Sirte and Crete holding, won't be seen as a threat that needs to be removed. The strategic situation is much better compared to OTL with Rommel at the border of Egypt and Crete a Luftwaffe base. Less bad blood with the French and the current Vichy garrison may join de Gaulle intact in the future.

By the end of June the British will have the following division in theater:

7th Armoured
2nd Armoured (minus a brigade rebuilding after Greece)
6th British
22nd British
50th British
4th Indian
7th Australian
9th Australian
6th Australian (rebuilding)
2nd New Zealand (rebuilding)
1st South African
1st Light Free French Division
Polish Independent Carpathian Brigade

Naturally, the British cannot supply all of them for an offensive. But they can throw a strong corps each time. Then during the next offensive another fresh strong corps etc.


Lastly, I found this comment:
 
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Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
The problems of resupplying North African, Germany, Italy and the British Commonwealth.



There has been a lot of discussion about the various problems in resupplying North Africa, and how this affects the campaigns. So starting with the new boys, Germany, who up until now haven’t been involved in the North African campaign. Germany prior to 1941 had no involvement in North Africa, even on a commercial scale. The three colonial powers, France, Italy and Britain would have done their best to keep German industry out of their play pen. And after Hitler and his gang of crooks got into power, the German policy of Autarky meant that those opportunities there were for trade, were reduced by the colonial powers. The Germans have now entered a very poorly developed area, with very limited infrastructure. Between Tripoli and Alexandria there isn’t a railway, or sealed road, nor is there a modern port, and Tripoli itself lacks many facilities. Thanks to under development by the colonial authority, there is little to no industry to draw on.

Virtually everything that the Germans require, other than limited food, and all water, has to be sent from Germany. This involves a train journey through the Alps and neutral Switzerland, to an Italian port, and then on an Italian ship to Tripoli, then by road to the German forces. And the only bit of this journey that is under German control is the very first bit. Once the train crosses the boarder, you will have to switch engines train crew, and it passes into the control of a different system. While you might have given it AAA priority, they will have their own demands and AAA could become BBB, overnight. Also everything you send has to fit on a train and though/under the various bridges/tunnels on route. You want to send three 20ton dockside cranes, that you have confiscated from Poland to improve the facilities at Tripoli. First dismantle the cranes into suitable loads to be transported by train, then move them to a port in Italy, negotiate Italian shipping to move them across the Mediterranean to Tripoli, then negotiate with the Italian port authority to build them in their port. Britain decides to borrow for the duration a 50ton floating crane from Haifa, Suez, Mombasa or Suez, to improve the facilities in Benghazi. An order is sent out and the equipment is impounded, an escort from the RN is arranged, the crane is moved to Benghazi, and put to work. Unfortunately for the Germans, they don’t control the ports in Italy or North Africa, they have to negotiate with the Italian authorities for everything they want to do.

Italy is in the worst position of the three, it is the weakest both militarily and industrially in comparison to Britain or Germany. It lacks the large industrial base that both Britain and Germany have, nor does it have access to the basic resources that are the bases of heavy industries, iron ore and coal. While it had built a fantastic electric power grid based on hydro power, this was essentially only in the North, and the South was in many ways feudal. Yes it did have a far better navy than the Germans, but one that was servile constricted in its ability to act, by its lack of oil to fuel its ships. Mussolini in his ambition to aper to have an army equal to that of others, Germany, France in particular, made a number of mistakes. He reduced the number of men in a division, so that it took three Italian devisions to equal two British devisions. He tried to integrate political devisions ( Black Shirt ), with the ordinary Army devisions, which wasn’t a great success. While the various Black Shirt devisions tended to be more enthusiastic, and the regular army had far more unenthusiastic conscripts, who were there because they were forced to be. Both types of devisions were in comparison to ether British or German, less effective, there kit, arms, armour, logistics, were generally inferior. Britain had been in control of Egypt since 1882, the Italians had had control of what is now Libya since 1912. And while the British had had the time and finances to build up Egypt, plus Egypt was a far wealthier country, with a higher and better educated population. The Italians were dealing with a much more primitive country, were lacking thanks to WWI, and the general poverty of Italy, the strong financial resources to develop their colonial possession. So from a poor industrial base, and with the added problem of supplying the Germans, and against British opposition, through inadequate ports, Italy is trying to fight one of the leading international powers in the world.

Britain and the British Commonwealth forces, have a number of problems, they are at the end of a very long supply line, and resent events in France and Norway, have made the Middle East less of a priority than it should be. But unlike ether the Germans or Italians, only the very first part of their supply chain is vulnerable to interdiction, and only to a limited extent on a small number of supplies. Let us look at two different convoys carrying supplies to North Africa, one British and one Italian, note the Germans would be extremely lucky to get even a single blockade runner from Hamburg to Tripoli, let alone a convoy. The Italian convoy assembles in Naples, which the British observe, and from when its in port to when it gets to Tripoli and after, it is liable to attack, from the air, surface, and under water. The British convoy assembles in Liverpool, first do the Germans observe this, and do they know where its going, and do they have any knowledge of the routing to be able to prepare a trap. The British convoy sails north about Ireland to stay out of range of the majority of German aircraft, and proceeds to Gibraltar, were it slips a few ships carrying supplies for the Rock and the RN units based there. It then sails south along the West African coast, slipping ships carrying supplies for the various British Colonies, which will pick up a backload for Britain, before sailing independently to Gibraltar to join a convoy for Britain. The ships that slipped for Gibraltar can ether pick up a load from Spain, mostly minerals, or dead head to West Africa for a return load. Once past Gibraltar there is a small risk from German U-Boats, or surface raiders. Once past Lagos, up until the Horn of Africa there is virtually no risk to the British ships. And the risk passing Italian East Africa is of basically been seen, not of being attacked.

And the convoy from Britain will only be carrying ‘ big ticket ‘ items, like artillery, armour, vehicles, and heavy artillery ammunition, electronic/electric items. Food, fuel, building supplies, even uniforms can be sourced from Britains colonial and commonwealth possessions/partners. And these items can be shipped at little or no risk, plus there is virtually no limit to availability. Take fuel, there is unlike no shortage of fuel, Britain can get all the fuel it needs from its owed and controlled oil fields/refineries in the Middle East. British ships can pull up to the end of a pipeline in Haifa, that stretches across Palestinian, Jordan to Iraqi, and fill its tanks, with sweet crude that can be used as boiler fuel. The problem that the British have with fuel, is not availability, it’s having the transport and containers to deliver it to were it is needed. But until Britain is forced by events in the Far East to divert supplies and attention to yet another major campaign, given resent events their position in North African will only get stronger and stronger day by day. In addition if they can “ liberate “ North Africa, before the change in the situation in the Far East, this will improve their ability to deal with the changed situation that arises.

RR.
 
Missing threadmark.

And for now, the two sides settle in to glare at each other. The front lines shifting slightly in the British favour. At least until either side amasses the supplies to launch an offensive.
o don t be silly,as soon as a certain someone's leash is dropped he'll be off,supplies be damned. 😲
 
Well this could also result in abit faster organization of divisons towards mechanized divisons compared to otl . And some of those divisons will be sent east i think , especially most of the australians i think .

Also this has been close to a brit wank of sorts sofar so slowing down the most optimistic estimates isnt a bad idea to keep it somewhat closer to otl and it still should be faster than in otl since rommel isnt throwing the brits back towards egypt here anyway wich is massive . Since it make taking tripoli alot easier.

This is also why before i have promoted the idea of doing a slow tank for regular infantry divisons for the brits something like black prince but abit smaller i guess would be my thought .

And keep the upcoming "cruiser" tank for the tank brigades and divisons mainly . Cant remember what the tank after valiant is called for some reason.
 
What have you got against Penguins?

Was it DS who came up with the 'Jock Columns' or was that Looney Hinde
I think it was certainly Dorman-Smith who took the idea and ran with it, leading to disaster after he infected the Auk with it. I have very little time for Corelli Barnett's adulation of Dorman-Smith and reading The Desert Generals makes my blood pressure spike on a regular basis.
 
I think it was certainly Dorman-Smith who took the idea and ran with it, leading to disaster after he infected the Auk with it. I have very little time for Corelli Barnett's adulation of Dorman-Smith and reading The Desert Generals makes my blood pressure spike on a regular basis.
Units fight as Brigades as Part of Divisions as Part of a Corps

I understand why they did it OTL - lack of mobile forces after Sonnenblume but as you say it became habit forming (along with the habit of forming ad hoc formations) and was persisted with far longer than he should have
 
Units fight as Brigades as Part of Divisions as Part of a Corps

I understand why they did it OTL - lack of mobile forces after Sonnenblume but as you say it became habit forming (along with the habit of forming ad hoc formations) and was persisted with far longer than he should have
I wonder if Dorman-Smith was trying to recreate the flexibility with which the Germans formed combined arms battle groups? Without the unity of training and doctrine shared by all German troops until the collapse of the system in late 1944.
 
I wonder if Dorman-Smith was trying to recreate the flexibility with which the Germans formed combined arms battle groups? Without the unity of training and doctrine shared by all German troops until the collapse of the system in late 1944.
Yes, that was apparently the intention and as CryHavoc101 said Jock Columns were a stopgap that was used for far too long. The issue with Jock Columns is that they stripped assets away from Brigades that were desperately needed in combined arms warfare. Jock Columns worked against the Italians in Operation Compass. They did not work against the Germans and persisting with them was a mistake.
Then D-S starts to try and persuade the Auk about the viability of a British version of the German brigade group. As Barnett points out this (or something close to it) becomes NATO doctrine after the war. The issue is that re-writing doctrine and experimenting with these groups in the middle of a campaign where they were fighting Rommel's panzer units was asking for trouble and the result was Gazala. The minute Monty comes in he does away with all of this experimentation, tells his commanders that Divisions will fight as Divisions and then tears a strip off an armoured commander who asks when the British armour would be unleashed on the Germans at Alam Halfa.
 
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