Well, I continued work on the world map. Eurasia is done and I added the bigger/older Aral sea, I haven't fixed much in the southern cone.
Working on Egypt and the Ottoman Empire got me thinking about something though. IOTL Muhammad Ali Pasha's revolt is starting up in 1831, when he tries to take Syria (and possibly more, maybe even the whole empire) from his nominal overlords, the Turks. His son managed to quickly take all of the important cities in Syria and southeastern Anatolia due to local support and being an actual modern army rather than halfway into its transition as the Ottomans were at the time. The Egyptians seized Konya and captured the Grand Vezir, and were about to attack Constantinople, but winter stalled them long enough for the Ottomans to invite the Russians to help, which in turn provoked the other great powers to politely tell everyone to hold the frick up, and forced Muhammad Ali Pasha to sign a peace treaty allowing him to keep Syria as an Ottoman vassal.
Now, the reason Muhammad Ali came to power in the first place was Napoleon's invasion of Egypt, and I'm assuming that the whabbi revolt happened as IOTL and that the Greek revolution just happened a bit later, so he should be in more or less the same situation as IOTL by 1830. His motivations were as follows: 1) he wanted power, as most leaders do and 2) he wanted to modernize either in the whole Ottoman empire (with him somehow in charge, say as Grand Vizier or even Sultan, ideally some position that his descendants could inherit, maybe a sort of Ottoman Shogun is an ideal middle ground for him if the Emperor accepts it, which i find unlikely) or alternatively into a large chunk of the empire which he carves out for himself (at least, the Levant, the Hejaz, and Egypt, Crete, and Sudan, which he either already had or we know intended to conquer). These motivations all still exist ITTL. If he is more successful, Muhammad Ali might also go for Libya or at least Cyrenaica, but that's neither here nor there as I'm not sure whether he would be. IOTL, a few years after the war, Muhammad Ali tried to secede when the Turks tried to strip him of the lands gained in the peace treaty.
Basically, I was wondering, how might the changed situation in Europe and the world at large effect Muhammad Ali's success. Russian intervention, however it may happen, automatically brings in the other Europeans, who would still, as IOTL want to maintain a balance of power, especially considering that Russia, having more of Poland is in an even better position than IOTL. However, the Napoleonic wars having ended more recently may impact Russia's willingness to become involved. Whether the Ottomans would still invite the Russians to help is also a question. It was only possible because of Muhammad Ali's timing. Given even slightly different timing (ie. without the winter delaying the attackers), it is possible that even if they reached out to the Russians, the Ottomans could already have lost Constantinople by the time a significant Russian forced managed to mobilize and get there. This is a double-edged sword though, Muhammad Ali's son could be forced to stop at, say, Alleppo rather than Konya, making it easier for him to be pushed back and giving the Egyptians a worse peace deal. There are also other geopolitical changes, but I don't think too many effect the Ottomans and the middle east so far (unless I'm forgetting something, maybe the revolts in the Balkans were bigger or something).
Anyway what do y'all think might happen with the Egyptian campaigns? Would they even happen and how might they change?