So I was thinking about a few things, you know, just the usual speculation I post way too much of in this thread with like 3-10 ish ideas that everyone, including me, forgets about in a few days.
First of all, I think I ought to just make a decision on France's colonial policy after the Napoleonic wars. It starts colonizing again. It's a pretty boring answer fairly like IOTL, but it seems the most likely to me. France would want to expand after having lost so much territory and would likely see colonial expansion as a less threatening alternative to expanding its influence on the continent. I'm gonna have Britain return some colonies to France after the Napoleonic wars, but not French Guyana and, after how big of a problem France was during the wars with Mysore, not France's Indian cities. This leaves France with Mauritius, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and the coast of Senegal. So I'd expect France to start off with something like Algeria since it's close by, has a hospitable climate for whiteys and isn't full of strange diseases. The Pacific and Indian Oceans are also options for early colonization and, of course, China. This means that some analogue to the Huangpu treaty and the Second Opium War can be expected. The thing is, this will all likely happen a bit later than IOTL. But this all does partially depend on what ends up happening in Egypt with Muhammad Ali Pasha. I expect France to go and demand reparations from Haiti like IOTL. Nobody liked Haiti, so nobody would oppose it.
Then there's the matter of German colonization. I won't go too deep into it until we've finished up with German unification but I think that in a TL where Germany unites earlier it will likely do better colonially for 2 fairly simple reasons. 1) no Bismarck to keep colonization limited so as not to scare the British too much 2) they get into the game much earlier so they have better colonies to choose from. There will of course be other factors limiting German colonization, so don't expect them to be anywhere near on par with the British or French, but they might seize a really good colony here or there, at best I'm thinking a piece of Indochina and a bit more African and more or just diffrent Pacific stuff than IOTL which is pretty good.
Finally, there is African American relocation/repatriation. Slavery is quite likely to end later/more gradually ITTL. While I see the North getting rid of it about as fast as IOTL and the South having less influence, I think the increased emphasis on State Autonomy would mean that the Southern states would unfortunately keep it for a fair deal longer unless there was a civil war, but regardless of total abolition, the north would still create a fairly large free black population, and in the south IOTL there was a growing free black population as well. This would only continue to increase as abolitionist beliefs slowly spread. The South hated the idea of having free black people, thinking they would undermine their slave based society, and many attempts were made at forced deportation to the North. Northerners, while not believing in Slavery, were still largely against living around Black people, and they likely would be ITTL with the exception of New Englanders. The idea of sending them to Africa would be present since the end of the ARW. With Britain sending so many of its freed Black people to Sierra Leone (way more than IOTL as they couldn't use Canada to store them and didn't really want too many of them in Britain, though ITTL Britain would still inevitably have a larger Black population early on as not all could be made to go to Africa). The question is, would it happen ITTL and who would do it? I'd expect if it happened it would be run by private individuals like IOTL maybe with funding and/or support from certain state governments looking to get rid of their black populations. I'm going to have to research this more, but any input on whether it would happen and if how, would be appreciated.
Basically do my musings and ramblings make any sense? What are your thoughts on these topics?