Both sides armies had moved though the Ardennes in the First World War. That should have been a tip off.
Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war
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Could he really think the Germans could advance 2,000 miles, crossing mountain ranges, and deserts, with no rail lines, and a very limited road net? He should have thought they had lost their minds, which they did. The chances that the Germans would start in Rostov, and end up a few months later in Mosul was nil. After the first year of the Russian war the Allies should've had a little more confidence in the Red Army, but they kept thinking Russia would collapse any moment. It should've been clear that Russia, and the Soviet State were fighting for their lives, and would use the most ruthless methods to stay in the fight.
Multiple other people (both soldier and politician) knew that it was passable, but for whatever reason Gamelin chose to believe what he wanted to believe. This is just one of the limitless Pods that cause the German offensive to collapse.
Garrison
Donor
To be fair to Gamelin, not that I want to be, after they the French captured the original German battle plan in February that confirmed all their assumptions about German intentions its not totally surprising they dismissed the Ardennes option. And of course it has to be remembered that Sickle Cut probably should have been a disaster for the Germans.
cardcarrier
Banned
French lack of realistic war games and maneuvers went hand in hand with all the negligence. From the country that road marched a Char B 300 miles in a Publicity Stunt in 1928 to show how insanely reliable it could be, to the country that (going by De Gaulle's experience) couldn't march a motorized division 60 miles without collapsing on itself and having their entire communications network break down
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
It might be an interesting exercise to work out how far the Germans could get in the total absence of any opposition at all. I suspect not half way before the Russians reach Berlin.
cardcarrier
Banned
2200 km (ish) from Bengahzi to Haifa (where the refineries and decent shipping terminals are)
very very roughly assuming 90 percent on road or good tank country
1200 gallons of fuel per panzer 3 that makes the trip
1 starter full tank and 13 refills
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
And with 10 gallons lost for every 1 gallon to get used by tanks. So that's 1 starter full tank and 13 refills which equates to 130 refills assuming a refill load is about the size of a lorry load.
Road or good tank country. The Arabian desert. Right. OK. Let's toss that into the mix. Not so much there. We're talking lots of sand and sod all roads. Treble consumption for this - 1 starter load and 390 refills.
Let's assume an infinite supply of trucks (you'll need that operating over that terrain, given how many will break down).
Let's assume 5 ton trucks, and barrels that have zero weight. 1 gallon of fuel is, very roughly, 10 lbs; our truck can therefore carry roughly 1000 gallons. Of that, 900 will be consumed getting from depot to tank. 100 gallons delivered means 12 trucks needed for every tank for every refill. Lets assume 200 tanks. That's 2400 trucks per refill. Let's assume 50% of the trucks get knackered each trip (a generous estimate). That's 1200 trucks lost each trip. 13 trips means 15,600 trucks required to deliver fuel to get 200 tanks to Haifa. That 5% of total truck production for Germany for the entire war.
Just for fuel.
I have heard it said that it gets quite hot in the Arabian desert, and soldiers might need to drink. Assume a similar number of trucks to deliver water to thirsty soldiers in tanks and (mostly) driving trucks.
That's around 30K trucks in total.
You've just used up about 10% of Germany's entire truck production for the whole of the war, and that's assuming none have been lost to enemy action.
Let's also assume a speed of advance of 200 km a day. Let's assume no British soldiers in the way. That gives the British 11 days to completely wreck the oil producing facilities while the Germans get there. That will require the facilities to be repaired. That will require repair equipment to be delivered. Across that self-same desert. Very roughly, another 30K trucks burned out getting the kit and people to repair the facilities so that oil can be got out of the ground.
We're now up to 20% of total German truck production broken down across the Arabian desert.
This plan doesn't need an enemy for it to fail.
Works unless the Allied driver drove until he ran out of petrol or jumped out and ran to save his own skin.
It is surprising how many trucks and other stuff got captured in working order or could be fixed.
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