of course churchills word on that was worth as much as the americans word on continuing to exchange nuclear info later on
Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war
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Well, well - just caught up with this one - love the increasingly frantic US observer transmissions.
Still, isn't the German spy turning himself in the first bad "roll" for Rommel? OTL, Eppler first got arrested in september 1942. Here he turns himself in July 1942 and provides the allies with useful information. Or am I missing something - was Eppler that bad a spy that it is a boon for Rommel to have him gone?
Also, what will the long term impact of a wildly successful axis advance into Egypt be? Obviously, Anglo-egyptian relations are an early low (as well as UK-SAF relations), but this is hardly likely to be a war-changing moment? Maybe this leads to a wasteful German stab at the Middle East, leaving the German army in Russia even more overextended and we get Russians in Berlin by 1944 - or conversely, maybe dominos start falling, mayhap Turkey joins the Axis and maybe Stalingrad doesn't happen due to fewer resources on the East front. UK won't peace out with the US in the war, but Russia? Any thoughts?
Still, isn't the German spy turning himself in the first bad "roll" for Rommel? OTL, Eppler first got arrested in september 1942. Here he turns himself in July 1942 and provides the allies with useful information. Or am I missing something - was Eppler that bad a spy that it is a boon for Rommel to have him gone?
Also, what will the long term impact of a wildly successful axis advance into Egypt be? Obviously, Anglo-egyptian relations are an early low (as well as UK-SAF relations), but this is hardly likely to be a war-changing moment? Maybe this leads to a wasteful German stab at the Middle East, leaving the German army in Russia even more overextended and we get Russians in Berlin by 1944 - or conversely, maybe dominos start falling, mayhap Turkey joins the Axis and maybe Stalingrad doesn't happen due to fewer resources on the East front. UK won't peace out with the US in the war, but Russia? Any thoughts?
cardcarrier
Banned
I would presume they would offer to supply the necessary food to succor the civilian population
The system that replaced code black was not known to be broken during it's use in the war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIGABA
Admittedly I believe that SIGABA could have been broken by bletchley park, given that it was somewhat (in it's early versions) less sophisticated than the mid war versions of Enigma
If the Soviets broke code black it never came out during the war or after, even under Kruschev, they tended to utilize human intelligence (pretty successfully) anyway
There should be a certain amount of considered respect given to the Abwehr and German foreign office cryptology depts (separate from the complete refusal to ever test if Enigma was broken), they did successfully crack 35ish diplomatic cipher codes and were pretty successful in the first half of the war in breaking British navy ciphers
cardcarrier
Banned
Historically Eppler accomplished nothing other than getting drunk and having wild evenings with prostitutes... here he didn't do any actual spying, but did make contact with his handlers and passed the details of rapier on to Anwar Saddat and the free officers club; but Eppler has turned himself in and provided everything to Fellers/Auchinlek; so as a role its a 5 then a 1 I guess; OTL it was just a 1.
For all the changes to history that are occurring in this timeline it should be carefully noted that only a very small amount of time has pass (just about 3 weeks) and there where significant parallel battles happening during Gazala including the battle of midway, the end of the 2nd battle of kharkov, heavy fighting at the siege of sevastopol and the build up for operation watch tower etc.... the forces Rommel has received as reinforcements where all historically sent to him in July 1942 anyway when his army fell apart at 1st Alamein; except 6th panzer which at the time was in OKW reserve in Brittany (later utilized in Operation winter storm) and has had it's personel stripped and sent Rommel as tank crew replacements
the transfer of those replacements to Rommel is obviously consuming large amounts of fuel, which in July historically contributed to the axis army complete fuel paralyzation in September... however, because of the cancellation of Operation Julius a very significant amount of fuel has been saved, which was consumed sending the Italian fleet and much of the axis air forces to fight those convoys; additionally Rommel has captured vastly more fuel than OTL and has captured a segment of the North African railway in tact to make his constant fuel problems a lessor problem than historical (temporarily)
the question becomes how does Rommel with 9 very undersized divisions continue the fight once he reaches the nile, while being burdened with a powerful refugee and humanitarian crisis in his lap; and not having captured a major in tact port anywhere near his front line (he has Bengahzi operational, and has Tobruk at 33 percent capacity; and some small fishing piers along the coast) Tripoli is now largely secure, but it's 1300 miles from his front lines...... ie 250 miles FURTHER than from Berlin to Moscow. There are additional infantry divisions in reserve that where earmarked for Herkules, but they would have to be delivered, fed and fueled which is no easy feet and none of those except for the much later centauro division have any mobility. German mobile reserves once case blue starts in 2 weeks are nil
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
Why on earth would Rommel care about a humanitarian crisis? It's not as though he was inclined to worry about hardships among locals.
Good job. A few observations if I may. I thought Tobruk was captured pretty much intact, because there was no battle there? Rommel may have captured the British railroad, but he wouldn't have any locomotives, or railcars, the British would take them with them down the track. The fuel for ships isn't gas, or petrol, so naval operations don't draw from the same stocks. Aviation fuel also wasn't the same grade used by ground vehicles, so they also come from different stocks. But yes they all were limited Axis resources. Without the air battles in the Central Med the Axis has more aviation fuel for operation in North Africa, and Rommel has a lot of captured petrol for his ground vehicles then he had in the OTL.
Nazis being nazis it won't happen, but what if Rommel, watching the destroyed infrastructures and humanitarian crisis in Egypt that could cause even millions of deaths by hunger decides to retire and let the British manage the crisis by themselves?
After all, Egypt has been neutralized as a menace during many months and British would have to occupy the country, fight the inevitable guerrilla war and fed the displaced egyptians. All that while trying to rebuild the infrastructure using their own workers because using Egyptian workers will expose the works to sabotage.
It's like the British would have amputated themselves a limb, only for not being able to wait a pair of months for the US troops. They should be really scared by Rommel.
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JLan1485
Banned
No military in history would ever permit itself to withdraw in the face of a decisive victory on top of being so close to a strategic objective.
Maybe if the Suez Canal just didn't exist, the German high command would consider either digging in Western Egypt with Alexandria as a supply base and not advancing further but at this point Rommel has utterly crushed the Allied forces at every turn and not at least trying to go on the offensive just isn't in the cards.
My guess is that by the time Rommel reaches the Nile he understands that he can't break the allied front with what forces he has but the catch 22 is the every moment he takes to build up the allies build up twice as fast. This eventually develops into a Mediterranean-style Kursk in which Rommel is tempted into attacking and is then overwhelmed by an allied counter-attack that forces him out of Egypt entirely.
Well, he could try a mobile, counter attacking fight when the British and Americans come back, taking advantage of the only friendly ground outside of Germany the nazis have at this point.
JLan1485
Banned
I reason that by the time Rommel acquires the equipment and means needed for an opposed crossing of the Nile it’s going to be too late for that sort of thing.
By the time he reaches the Nile (in greater and greater desperation as he realizes that the allies plan to stand at fight at the river) the allies will have reinforced their side of the Nile and begin an attritional battle Rommel knows he cannot win.
Yes, he has had incredible successes, but he hasn’t totally destroyed the enemy in front of him, rather they’ve retreated more and more and he hasn’t just reached the end of his supplies, he’s reached the end of his foes supplies. This coupled with the chaos in Egypt, and the British scorched earth campaign the German effort in Africa had gone as far as it could go. It will take weeks to retrain the port at Alexandria meaning his supplies still have to come in from Benghazi (hundreds of miles away) while the allies are receiving relief quickly through port said in the East and British Sudan in the south.
This isn’t to take away from the massive success Rommel has won for the Axis: with Alexandria conquered the allied naval presence in the Mediterranean has been thoroughly strangled, coupled with the neutralization of Malta and the destruction of a first rate allied force, if they play it smart this should secure Africa for the Axis for another year and cost them a grinding campaign across the Nile and a large delay of operation Torch (and therefore a delay on the end of Vichy France whose regime will be bolstered by these allied setbacks)
Rommel’s best move IMO now would be to dig in a d create a defense in depth at the Nile and force the allies into grinding assaults that will be met with armored counter-attacks.
Alternatively, he could roll the dice one last time and attempt an assault of the allied lines as soon as he can cross the Nile and hope he can unnerve them enough to make even more stupid mistakes. And even then, he’d need a miracle just to force the allies off the Nile and jammed into area around the Canal Zone.
Except the allies aren't fighting at the nile, there fighting at the suez, they turned the delta into a unlivabe wasteland, for both sides. And left ciro completely undefended (manly because its undefecsable curintly). Romal would be able to cross to the desert on the other side completely unaposed. Now he wouldn't be able to supply a big enough army to fight the 6? British divisions on the suez, but the British arnt planing on fight Rommel on the Nile.
I can not believe the Egyptians would let the British destroy their country. If the British started to destroy their port facilities, dykes, irrigation systems, bridges, and ferries it would start an all out war, with massive riots, and mob attacks to stop them. The Egyptian Army, and people would be fighting for their lives.
You know at first I was like thats not very likely, then I realized, didn't Britain gust pull most of there garazin troops to the suez inorder to defend it? I still doubt it would happen but this would be probably the best time to revolt the Arabs have.
cardcarrier
Banned
There would be a variety of factors that could come into play concerning the Egyptian civilian population including but not limited to:
1. Rommel as a policy recruited arab soldiers for his army
2. The refugees would be clogging the roads that he needs to use
3. Egypt was intended to become an Italian protectorate, Mussolini may not be on board with having all of his new subjects die of starvation
4. Hitler and the Nazi party had an ongoing propaganda campaign in conjunction with the Grand mufti to instigate arabs to fight jews and the British, and he may see rapier as an opportunity to build on his propaganda
this is essentially where we are; I realize some of my writing might have been confusing or vague, plus not all readers may be familiar with the geography of the Nile in northern Egypt. Essentially Auchinlek and the Navy have turned the delta (the lush, fertile area between the nile's branches in northern and central Egypt), in to a swamp clusterfuck, by demolishing their dams and sluices and irrigation networks creating uncontrolled flooding of the major territory (and unfortunate civilian settlements) in between Alexandria and Port Said, and in between Cairo and Suez; sort of like the intended fortress Holland strategy; this would have the effect of putting Auchinlek up against a wall in the canal in a sense but create a massive series of water barriers between himself and Rommel, to give him time and breathing space to suppress the rebellion and rebuild the army
unfortunately Egypt's population of more than 20mm people is heavily concentrated in these areas and the major cities, and the damage to the land and the scorched earth tactics on the food stocks and fresh water supplies would beget incredible death tolls, independent of the continued war fighting, including the war fighting stopping repairs to the dam systems
They aren't just sitting by, Farouk has whipped up the civilian population and the army to fight back against Rapier, the problem is they had very little time to prepare and arm themselves. Egypt is in full out insurrection against the British at the moment and actively fighting Rapier. Rommel is still in the boonies so he hasn't had much contact with the civilian population.... yet
Auchinlek has called on all his deep reserves from the middle east to re-establish the defense of Egypt... news of Rapier mixed in with the Grand Mufti's propaganda could have all sorts of negative outcomes in Palestine (separate from any further war fighting by Rommel)
21.1 Fellers-Rommel Correspondance and axis deliberations
cardcarrier
Banned
Chapter 21.1
6-13-42 23:59hrs 20 miles West of El Alamein Train depot, Egypt, Panzer Army Africa Mobile Command Post AEC "Mammouth" armored bus, Field Marshal Irwin Rommel Commander Panzer Army Africa, Oberst Siegfried Westphal Chief of PAA operations, Erhard Raus Commander 15th Panzer Division, Major Alfred Seebohme commander 621st Radio Interception company, chief of PAA special communications
FROM SPECIAL AGENT CONDOR (Utilizing special encoding system from the Novel Rebekah)
For Field Marshal Rommel's eyes only
I have collected some trash you left behind in Cairo. even gave him a shave and a night in the drunk tank, I expected more from someone with your reputation. I enjoyed hunting foxes back home, and I'll enjoy having you in a prisoner cage even more. You are not as clever as you think you are, be seeing you real soon - Fellers
Rommel grinned hard, he would insist that Fellers write the forward to his war memoirs, pay him whatever he wanted, give him a generous percentage of the royalties, whatever it took. He would pay all of his expenses to go on a book tour with him whenever the war ended
"Make a note Westphal, I want an expert in psychology brought in from Germany to accompany our headquarters, I want someone right next to me who thinks how Fellers thinks. Seebohme, please be much more careful with those you intend to do our work behind the enemy lines, they need to have a constitution for that sort of work, Fellers will be the sort who is good at picking out spies and turning them like he did with this one, so we will need people who are top notch"
Rommel was exhausted and jubilant at the same time. He had overflown his areas of operations in a Heinkel bomber earlier in the day, Raus's most forward patrols where nearly at Auchinlek's "line" at Alamein, but Auchinlek had withdrawn! The British, in face of the wild rioting of the Egyptian civilian population and army in their rear chose (smartly in Rommel's opinion) to fall back towards their supply bases, and remove the possibility of Rommel piercing and pinning them either against the rioters or the nile, or the British having no ability to restock arms in any pitched fighting due to the dangers on all Egyptian lines of communications. He regretted missing the chance to destroy Auchinlek's remaining divisions while they where exposed, but he could take solace in the fact that Tripoli was now for most intents 100 percent secure with the evacuation of the British fleet from the eastern Mediterranian, and Malta was on the cusp of being starved into surrender; additionally the heavy fighting along the nile between the Egyptians and the British meant that despite their plans to burn every possible useful supply to deny them to the panzer army, some items would survive and be held in Egyptian hands until Rommel could arrive.
His army only needed to move another 100 miles to reach Alexandria, then they would stop to consolidate. The strip they had built at El Dabbah was insufficient and primitive even by north african standards. He needed a long consolidation period to bring the infrastructure of the army and the air force forward so he could gain parity over central Egypt; only the wild movements of the Egyptian public against many British airbases, and the forced redeployments was stopping his force from being destroyed in the open, due to their own general lack of cover; his whole army was strung out back to the Egyptian border, and did represent a ripe target; only Raus and Kleeman where past El Dabbah, the other divisions having paused to refuel and to perform some vehicle service. Vehicle service was on the front of Rommel's mind once the army would stop, although his vehicles at the start of his offensive at Gazala where largely brand new from the factory, they had since had to fight tough battles to break the 8th army in Libya and marched now over 500 miles from their start lines and where starting to come due for intensive maintenance. The pause at Alexandria would need to be much longer than the pause he had taken after capturing Toburk and taking the 8th army prisoner
Further support from Germany and Italy once he would take Alexandria was being advocated by Kesselring and staff via Marshal Goring and Count Ciano as the army seemed on the verge of reaching one of it's main campaign objectives. Goring was going so far as to advocate scaling down of the coiled fist of case blue to free up additional reserves and air assets for the panzer army africa, by removing it's proposed left punch under General Obersts Paulus and Hoth and focusing everything into General Oberst Kliest's push into the southern oil producing regions and blocking allied lend lease which was coming into Russia via Persia. Goring and Ciano where pointing to Hitler and the Wehrmacht high command that they had the British on the ropes and that the political situation in Egypt presented a powerful opportunity to permanently secure the axis southern flanks and in conjunction with Japan, inflict grave strategic difficulties on the British. Rommel's reinforcement had consumed most of the earmarked forces for Herkules, but it was hoped that the Island would now be given up without fighting. The voices calling for the scaled down case blue, pointed to the grave drain on total army and air force fuel reserves, and Rommel would need more fuel to reach the Suez canal and points beyond, and simply put there wasn't enough fuel to feed a 60 division offensive in Russia and Rommel's troops so incredibly far from their secure supply bases at the same time. Goring was arguing to Halder and Jodl that Rommel was now within 200 miles of his final objectives, while Paulus would have to go over 3 times that distance, and that the army in Russia would be better served gobbling the oil and otherwise remaining on the defensive
The Reichsmarshal was of course meeting stiff opposition in the face of Hitler himself and Halder/Kietel along with most of the military command staff who felt Russia was just as much on the ropes as the British following their heavy losses at Kharkov, with Halder remarking that the Panzer armies had taken 4 times as many prisoners as Rommel the last month, and where capturing valuable mineral producing regions instead of empty tracts of sand. Hitler in particular remarked that forcing Russia to quit the war would free up all of Europe's resources to inflict the required final humiliating defeats on Britain and the bring the war to a successful conclusion
For all the stresses, jubilation, victories and defeats, it had been a very hard 15 months on Rommel; he had received an invitation from Mussolini to come to Rome at such time as the army might pause, and that his wife would be brought in for a belated celebration of her birthday, which he missed organizing the final preparations for operation Venice. Kesselring suggested he take 2 weeks of leave, and use the opportunity to advocate for the panzer army's continued support from the mainland now that victory was in sight, the thought of seeing Lucie and Manfred appealed hard to Rommel, and he knew that after such a long difficult period he needed that break to refresh his mind and body to stay sharp for the next phase of the war; he wondered to himself when would Fellers ever be permitted to have a night at home with his family, could even someone that focused and deep go months... years on end without sleeping in his own bed, for as much as he was far from home, Berlin was still a lot closer to Cairo than Chicago
"Seebohme send a transmission back utilizing the broken code and quote me exactly
For Fellers eyes only
Hurry up and get your troops here I have emptied my cages by sending your armies back to Italy already and I don't want them going to waste. Be sure to stock your divisions with that those fine coffees and razor blades your people make, the DAK will enjoy them as a wonderful luxury here in Egypt,
Rommel"
The Field Marshal grinned a final time, and thought to himself, my command is a much better life than those poor bastards fighting in Russia; I am my own pharoh here
6-13-42 23:59hrs 20 miles West of El Alamein Train depot, Egypt, Panzer Army Africa Mobile Command Post AEC "Mammouth" armored bus, Field Marshal Irwin Rommel Commander Panzer Army Africa, Oberst Siegfried Westphal Chief of PAA operations, Erhard Raus Commander 15th Panzer Division, Major Alfred Seebohme commander 621st Radio Interception company, chief of PAA special communications
FROM SPECIAL AGENT CONDOR (Utilizing special encoding system from the Novel Rebekah)
For Field Marshal Rommel's eyes only
I have collected some trash you left behind in Cairo. even gave him a shave and a night in the drunk tank, I expected more from someone with your reputation. I enjoyed hunting foxes back home, and I'll enjoy having you in a prisoner cage even more. You are not as clever as you think you are, be seeing you real soon - Fellers
Rommel grinned hard, he would insist that Fellers write the forward to his war memoirs, pay him whatever he wanted, give him a generous percentage of the royalties, whatever it took. He would pay all of his expenses to go on a book tour with him whenever the war ended
"Make a note Westphal, I want an expert in psychology brought in from Germany to accompany our headquarters, I want someone right next to me who thinks how Fellers thinks. Seebohme, please be much more careful with those you intend to do our work behind the enemy lines, they need to have a constitution for that sort of work, Fellers will be the sort who is good at picking out spies and turning them like he did with this one, so we will need people who are top notch"
Rommel was exhausted and jubilant at the same time. He had overflown his areas of operations in a Heinkel bomber earlier in the day, Raus's most forward patrols where nearly at Auchinlek's "line" at Alamein, but Auchinlek had withdrawn! The British, in face of the wild rioting of the Egyptian civilian population and army in their rear chose (smartly in Rommel's opinion) to fall back towards their supply bases, and remove the possibility of Rommel piercing and pinning them either against the rioters or the nile, or the British having no ability to restock arms in any pitched fighting due to the dangers on all Egyptian lines of communications. He regretted missing the chance to destroy Auchinlek's remaining divisions while they where exposed, but he could take solace in the fact that Tripoli was now for most intents 100 percent secure with the evacuation of the British fleet from the eastern Mediterranian, and Malta was on the cusp of being starved into surrender; additionally the heavy fighting along the nile between the Egyptians and the British meant that despite their plans to burn every possible useful supply to deny them to the panzer army, some items would survive and be held in Egyptian hands until Rommel could arrive.
His army only needed to move another 100 miles to reach Alexandria, then they would stop to consolidate. The strip they had built at El Dabbah was insufficient and primitive even by north african standards. He needed a long consolidation period to bring the infrastructure of the army and the air force forward so he could gain parity over central Egypt; only the wild movements of the Egyptian public against many British airbases, and the forced redeployments was stopping his force from being destroyed in the open, due to their own general lack of cover; his whole army was strung out back to the Egyptian border, and did represent a ripe target; only Raus and Kleeman where past El Dabbah, the other divisions having paused to refuel and to perform some vehicle service. Vehicle service was on the front of Rommel's mind once the army would stop, although his vehicles at the start of his offensive at Gazala where largely brand new from the factory, they had since had to fight tough battles to break the 8th army in Libya and marched now over 500 miles from their start lines and where starting to come due for intensive maintenance. The pause at Alexandria would need to be much longer than the pause he had taken after capturing Toburk and taking the 8th army prisoner
Further support from Germany and Italy once he would take Alexandria was being advocated by Kesselring and staff via Marshal Goring and Count Ciano as the army seemed on the verge of reaching one of it's main campaign objectives. Goring was going so far as to advocate scaling down of the coiled fist of case blue to free up additional reserves and air assets for the panzer army africa, by removing it's proposed left punch under General Obersts Paulus and Hoth and focusing everything into General Oberst Kliest's push into the southern oil producing regions and blocking allied lend lease which was coming into Russia via Persia. Goring and Ciano where pointing to Hitler and the Wehrmacht high command that they had the British on the ropes and that the political situation in Egypt presented a powerful opportunity to permanently secure the axis southern flanks and in conjunction with Japan, inflict grave strategic difficulties on the British. Rommel's reinforcement had consumed most of the earmarked forces for Herkules, but it was hoped that the Island would now be given up without fighting. The voices calling for the scaled down case blue, pointed to the grave drain on total army and air force fuel reserves, and Rommel would need more fuel to reach the Suez canal and points beyond, and simply put there wasn't enough fuel to feed a 60 division offensive in Russia and Rommel's troops so incredibly far from their secure supply bases at the same time. Goring was arguing to Halder and Jodl that Rommel was now within 200 miles of his final objectives, while Paulus would have to go over 3 times that distance, and that the army in Russia would be better served gobbling the oil and otherwise remaining on the defensive
The Reichsmarshal was of course meeting stiff opposition in the face of Hitler himself and Halder/Kietel along with most of the military command staff who felt Russia was just as much on the ropes as the British following their heavy losses at Kharkov, with Halder remarking that the Panzer armies had taken 4 times as many prisoners as Rommel the last month, and where capturing valuable mineral producing regions instead of empty tracts of sand. Hitler in particular remarked that forcing Russia to quit the war would free up all of Europe's resources to inflict the required final humiliating defeats on Britain and the bring the war to a successful conclusion
For all the stresses, jubilation, victories and defeats, it had been a very hard 15 months on Rommel; he had received an invitation from Mussolini to come to Rome at such time as the army might pause, and that his wife would be brought in for a belated celebration of her birthday, which he missed organizing the final preparations for operation Venice. Kesselring suggested he take 2 weeks of leave, and use the opportunity to advocate for the panzer army's continued support from the mainland now that victory was in sight, the thought of seeing Lucie and Manfred appealed hard to Rommel, and he knew that after such a long difficult period he needed that break to refresh his mind and body to stay sharp for the next phase of the war; he wondered to himself when would Fellers ever be permitted to have a night at home with his family, could even someone that focused and deep go months... years on end without sleeping in his own bed, for as much as he was far from home, Berlin was still a lot closer to Cairo than Chicago
"Seebohme send a transmission back utilizing the broken code and quote me exactly
For Fellers eyes only
Hurry up and get your troops here I have emptied my cages by sending your armies back to Italy already and I don't want them going to waste. Be sure to stock your divisions with that those fine coffees and razor blades your people make, the DAK will enjoy them as a wonderful luxury here in Egypt,
Rommel"
The Field Marshal grinned a final time, and thought to himself, my command is a much better life than those poor bastards fighting in Russia; I am my own pharoh here
OTL Rommel's aircraft of choice was the Fieseler Storch. Even Churchill used a captured one to fly into the beech landing after D-day.
en.wikipedia.org
Fieseler Fi 156 Storch - Wikipedia
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I understand he was a decent pilot and would often surprise his men by landing his plane at different points along the front to micro manage things.OTL Rommel aircraft of choice was the Fieseler Storch
Fieseler Fi 156 Storch - Wikipedia
Indeed.
And a slow-moving aircraft like that was better for viewing the battlefield than a fast bomber.
Put allied marking on a Fieseler Storch and land behind allied lines and he could grab an allied general or senior officers.
A few Germans who can speak English in British uniforms and they would even get on the aircraft willingly.
Fieseler Storch was popular with allied generals.
After that allied Generals would not want to get on any aircraft and that should slow their movment.
Air Vice Marshal Harry Broadhurst and his Storch, Italy, 1943
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