Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

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ferdi254

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@BELFAST there are situations where every little bit helps and then there are situations where we are talking drops on a hot stone. Rommel is in the latter.

The only sane option he has is making a huge show of being in Alexandria while moving a large part of his forces west and prepare defensive lines.

OTL does show that 2.5 months of a relative low combat time just gave him the supplies to fight for a week. And Alexandria is further East.
 
@BELFAST there are situations where every little bit helps and then there are situations where we are talking drops on a hot stone. Rommel is in the latter.

The only sane option he has is making a huge show of being in Alexandria while moving a large part of his forces west and prepare defensive lines.

OTL does show that 2.5 months of a relative low combat time just gave him the supplies to fight for a week. And Alexandria is further East.
Agreed.
The fishing fleet would only be a very small help in supplying the troops as they fall back.
The offensive operation even if they win and capture the supply dumps only put Rommel further from this supply base and makes his problems worse.
Rommel could gift any British small arms etc to the Egyptians as he falls back, irregular Egypt forces behind allied lines could make things much harder for the allies.
At this point, Rommel needs to start planing an exit strategy as the how to get Amy out of Africa before it is trapped.
 

cardcarrier

Banned
Agreed.
The fishing fleet would only be a very small help in supplying the troops as they fall back.
The offensive operation even if they win and capture the supply dumps only put Rommel further from this supply base and makes his problems worse.
Rommel could gift any British small arms etc to the Egyptians as he falls back, irregular Egypt forces behind allied lines could make things much harder for the allies.
At this point, Rommel needs to start planing an exit strategy as the how to get Amy out of Africa before it is trapped.
I dont believe Rommel in the ATL would think like that, he just destroyed everything in front of him and forced the British to burn their fleet base and has forced malta into submission; he would be bulging with ego and confidence, not thinking about how his army would be doomed in fairly short order; even in OTL under far worse conditions it survived another 11 months from where we are now and 10 months from OTL 1st battle of Alamein
 

ferdi254

Banned
I also agree Rommel would not think like that but looking at ATL he got mauled at Alamein. Here he would get mauled even worse. He is further away from his supply base (even moving the LW 200 km east would eat up the logistics of two weeks minimun and he also faces the US troops. And has an indefensible 400 km long line.

If he stays where he is Tunisia will be in allied hands end of 42.

If he carefully prepares a battle of trading space he may be able to stay until July.
 
the biggest question is Vichy France, with the desert campaign doing better, might they decide to put up a real fight against the allies in contrast to otl?
 

JLan1485

Banned
I also agree Rommel would not think like that but looking at ATL he got mauled at Alamein. Here he would get mauled even worse. He is further away from his supply base (even moving the LW 200 km east would eat up the logistics of two weeks minimun and he also faces the US troops. And has an indefensible 400 km long line.

If he stays where he is Tunisia will be in allied hands end of 42.

If he carefully prepares a battle of trading space he may be able to stay until July.
July ‘43?
 
I also agree Rommel would not think like that but looking at ATL he got mauled at Alamein. Here he would get mauled even worse. He is further away from his supply base (even moving the LW 200 km east would eat up the logistics of two weeks minimun and he also faces the US troops. And has an indefensible 400 km long line.

If he stays where he is Tunisia will be in allied hands end of 42.

If he carefully prepares a battle of trading space he may be able to stay until July.
Rommel is completely and utterly screwed in this scenario. His supply line is falling apart behind him, he's out of fuel, his lorries have no spares, 8th Army is preparing to counter-attack and he's lost his best source of intelligence.
But, of course, the dice will be loaded in his favour. Because that's the way things have been headed this entire time in this timeline. The British are morons and Rommel is fantastic.
(Tired sigh)
 
Aren't we now at the point that there is a kind of stalemate with neither side in good shape to cross the Nile and attack the other? Of course, one issue is whether the UK fleet can be kept out of the Med indefinitely - with the Egyptians furious at the Brits, it is possible that they may be able to sink some ships in the Suez Canal closing it off for a while. The Allies will be able to build up East of the Nile but with a very hostile local population and no warships in the Med it is unlikely that they would be able to mount a crossing of the Nile against determined opposition. And while Rommel may not have the logistics to mount an advance, he can probably build up gradually to develop a sufficient defensive posture on the West side of the river.
 
Rommel is completely and utterly screwed in this scenario. His supply line is falling apart behind him, he's out of fuel, his lorries have no spares, 8th Army is preparing to counter-attack and he's lost his best source of intelligence.
But, of course, the dice will be loaded in his favour. Because that's the way things have been headed this entire time in this timeline. The British are morons and Rommel is fantastic.
(Tired sigh)
Now he can strip Egypt of fuel, supplies & transport - if the locals object well that's why Nazis have machine guns /s
 
24 Fredendall reaches Egypt, Malta capitulates

cardcarrier

Banned
Chapter 24

6-16-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Suez Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Brig General Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ and Pending Chief of Staff GSO1 to American Expeditionary Corps of Egypt
Report sent via US ARMY CIPHER SYSTEM (UNBREAKABLE)

Urgent report and personal observations:

Major General Fredendall arrived in Suez this afternoon
With his arrival per previous orders, all USA personel in Egypt are subordinated to him and AECE (American Expeditionary Corps of Egypt) AECE will be used for short hand from now on
With the arrival of General Fedendall, my office of GSO 1 is now activated and am assuming responsibility
Lt. Col Oswald is now American military attache to MEGHQ
Oswald and I will work together for the next two weeks to cover transition of the office and I will sign attache reports to Washington at discretion per previous orders
Starting tomorrow General Fredendall will review and sign our reporting back to USA chain of command
General Fredendall was greeted by Auchinlek at the docks, but they had to immediately run to shelter because the military port was raided by several dozen bombers of the axis. The desert air force did rise to meet them, results are being assessed but a good photographic opportunity was spoiled
AECE has enough office space in Suez to support our current staff allotment, General Fredendall has inquired about securing more substantial air defense bunkers after the landing/bombing incident
GHQ staff officers, the bombing aside where greatly cheered up by the arrival of our senior American Ground forces commander, many smiles for the first time in weeks
After the breakdown of, constructive planning concerning the fate of Malta, and axis dive bombers strafing a bread line yesterday, Lord Gort, the military governor of the island advised Auchinlek and London that he was going to use the offices of the Bishop of Valetta to open negotiations with Italy via the Vatican about taking custody of the island and ending the suffering and starvation of the civilian population and the situation was no longer tenable for anyone, solider of civilian alike
Gort's decision to surrender the island while producing outward angst and sorrow, especially among the Navy who lost so many ships keeping the island going, is also being simultaneously met with relief because enormous pressure was being applied to continue to resupply the island which had become progressively more hopeless and costly
Myself, Oswald and our British GHQ counterparts feel from a supplies reaching Africa standpoint, Malta's capitulation does not require a substantial reanalysis (the reason for this is that the Island has been beaten to rubble by over 10,000 axis air sorties; and has not been an effective base since February)
Rommel's capture of Gambut last month merely put an exclamation point on what already was, the island had been broken
His sealanes to Tripoli and Bengahzi are fairly safe until USA long range bombing squadrons are properly stood up, Tripoli as at the extreme end of range; Toburk and Crete (which is where most of his supplies are being pushed through) are in far easier ranges
Intelligence reports Rommel is making some use of the military railroad such as he captured it in Libya and is demonstrating ability to bring supplies, slowly to the frontier
Long range photographic missions have shown significant parts of his army are strung out from Tobruk all the way to Alexandria; only his prime German mobile divisions have reached the delta itself
Our own assessment remains slightly above our GHQ counterparts, we presume Rommel to have approximately 90,000 men and 300-350 tanks of all types, but only 25,000 men and 125 tanks at Alexandria
Our assessment is that Rommel's tank park might be somewhat stronger than currently presumed after he finishes regrouping, not only will some of his own runners have gone down for repairs in his breathless lunge from Gazala to the Nile, but he is known to have captured a significant number of in tact or repairable British runners, which he has a pattern of finding use for
We regard his army at the moment despite only being 90,000 men as having elements of 11 divisions; this fits the patterns of Axis divisions being smaller than British divisions, there is some possibility that certain regiments and battalions he has received in May and June are advanced guards for a greater reinforcement pattern
It was always a long term presumption inside the GHQ that if Rommel reached the Delta, that he would receive substantial reinforcements from Europe
Our own attache staff had previously been skeptical of this because of his demonstrated supply problems and the incredible committment of axis armies to the heavy fighting in Russia
It would seem our skepticism in some ways was quite wrong, Rommel's army was much larger and stronger in May than was previously believed, and he has received numerous reinforcements throughout the heavy battle in Libya that have kept his army at a similar strength. This also applies to the size and sortie availability of his supporting air forces, our staff is committed that Gazala is the last time that his ability to reinforce or conceal his army is lost on us
This all plays it's part in the background as we try to assess his timetable to return to the offensive, and what his offensive schemes might be when he is ready.
Although the loss of Malta likely makes no substantive change on his supplies which are largely reaching Tripoli and Bengahzi unmolested anyway, it does free up as we have previously reported, substantial German and Italian tactical aircraft to either support Rommel directly in Africa or for some other use
Oswald is skeptical of Rommel even renewing his offensive at all (I do not agree but have heard him out) he feels that would take Rommel 6 months or more to build up the bridging materials and specialist infantry to conduct opposed crossings of the Nile and drive on the Suez Canal and that his parachute forces would have to increase by a factor of 5 to come into play for such a mission
Additionally Oswald feels that with the Egyptian civilian population rampaging all throughout the Delta including attacking the British work camps along the Canal, which in conjunction with the axis air threat renders it unusable; that Rommel has no reason to attack, and would likely remain on the defensive and build strong points along the western edges of the Delta and regard his campaign as complete and content himself to transfer his large stockpiles of captured British weapons to sympathetic Egyptians to keep our hands full
Oswald feels that a credible attack towards Port Said would require Rommel's army to reach a strength of at least 300,000 men 800 tanks and 1500 aircraft a generalized tripling of his current forces which far outstrips known axis reserves in Italy that he has been calling on (even ignoring his ability to supply such an army)
General Fredendall will begin his study of these many considerations tomorrow and begin compiling his own responses and battle plans
It is vital that the AECE be constituted and brought to battle readiness in the fastest manners possible to head off any potential resumption of the offensive by Rommel
The entire GHQ is whispering that Auchinlek and Smith will be sacked the moment the Malta capitulation is done and that London is bringing their replacements aboard shortly
Port Said and Cairo are essentially within the entire control of Farouk's subjects as is most of the Delta in between
Farouk is very active on the radio calling for all European forces to immediately leave Egypt
Farouk transmits messages, critical of British "atrocities" and calling upon fellow Muslims throughout British controlled territories to throw off their yoke
Farouk also sent an emissary under a flag of truce into the Suez perimeter offering to mediate between the British and the Germans such that all parties might leave Egypt and that the country become neutral and be removed as a battleground of the war
Auchinlek rejected the man out of hand as he is sure Rommel did if such a person was sent his way
In trying to assess Rommel's ability to attack again we are left with many imponderables about possible support of soft goods or confiscations of Egyptian foods and other necessities by Rommel. Rapier destroyed much of the fuel and motor transport within the Alexandria to Cairo corridor, but fuel even if important is only one of Rommel's many needs
I have discussed in hushed terms with some GHQ staffers about Rommel's ability to raise Egyptian legions or co-opt the nucleus of the Egyptian army despite Farouk's calls to neutralize the country; opinions are all over the place. Axis political maneuvers and Rommel's own usual coarse of business with arabs renders this some sort of possibility; particularly when he took the British army rail head and is awash in British weapons and ammunitions to sow mischief with
General Fredendall hopes to be a quick study on Rommel, after emerging from the air shelter, he asked me for my copy of Rommel's memoir of the Great War

Signed,
Fellers/Oswald

End Transmission
 
25

cardcarrier

Banned
Chapter 25

6-17-42 23:59hrs El Dabba Egypt Axis forward airfield Pyramid 12, Field Marshal Irwin Rommel Commander Panzer Army Africa, Oberst Siegfried Westphal C chief of PAA operations, Major Alfred Seebohme commander 621st Radio Interception company, chief of PAA special communications; JU-52 1st transportation Gruppen JC+A4 Commander Hauptman Joseph "Sepp" Von Theil, close escort 12 BF-110, 6 from Africa, 6 from Crete

It was bitter, bitter sweet as Rommel felt the BMW engines surge to full power as Theil's crate began surging along the coastal strip headed for Athens, and then on to Rome and Berlin. He was going home for the first time in over a year, he would see Germany. The Reichsmarshal and the foreign minister had given him a general overview of things at home and the many challenges on the eastern front.

He longed to spend a quiet night at home with his wife and son, but he knew this wasn't likely to be a traditional soldier's leave. Germany and even more so Italy, as Count Ciano had told him, where thrilled by the progress of the Panzer Army Africa reaching Alexandria; the battle of Gazala, fought at extreme speed with unlimited freedom of movement was something that easily captured the imagination and there where medals, to be awarded and publicity photos to be taken to buoy morale on the home front. The Goebbles propaganda machine had already been spinning after Rommel's stunning victory that through his ardent belief in National Socialism that a new Hidenberg had emerged, a true German warrior who could outfight the very best the British had

Rommel knew the truth though, he had read Fellers mail and lived the battle; the British troops fought bravely, and where collapsed as much by their terrible luck in the first 48 hours of the battle and terrible political interference than any brilliance of command he had brought to the table... still he thought war luck, was taught to him as a junior staff officer a quarter century before as the meeting of opportunity and action, Ritchie and Fellers and Churchill and the terrible middle and upper level officer actions by the British had given him the opportunity, but the DAK and the PAA had taken the action to exploit it. Many risks where run, the army fighting 3 separate actions spaced 50 miles apart sometimes but gradually the pockets where reduced and overwhelming strength was brought against the tougher and more experienced British divisions, after he was able to hopelessly cut them off for their supply network and motorized transport

He was leaving for home as the great victor of Egypt without having done any real fighting. Auchinlek had simply pulled his army back once his rear became unstable, very smart in Rommel's opinion. He regarded Auchinlek as a far more ruthless opponent than Ritchie, there was maybe a great victory that was left on the table at Alamein, where the rampaging Egyptians might have denied Auchinlek all forms of supply and disorganized his airforce; presenting Rommel the opportunity to pierce the line, roll it up and force the last of Auchinlek's army to surrender. It might have been very close run given how strung out his own army was and that he didn't have the ability to enjoy any air support that far forward. He didn't want to think about the state his army would have been if Auchinlek had been able to stop him at Alamein, that would not have been a pretty withdrawal.

He had spent the last 24 hours after his long sleep and entertainment of the high ranking government ministers trying to find a way to assess his new situation in the Western Delta. His army was in tact and steadily displacing forward. Ration strength was 92,000 and tanks where being repaired and marched to the best of the DAK service crew abilities. The special 10th Italian tank regiment would perhaps be fully operational on the captured British runners in August, particularly with their over-running the divisional workshops, and given that the tanks they had captured where practically brand new from the factory, he hoped he might be able to keep them going for a good while, it burned his insides when Westphal joked that they had more spares for British tanks and trucks than they had for the Panzer 3 and 4 specials

The two great unknowns where fluttering before him as his the junkers cruised above the blue waters of the Med. He had been informed early this morning by Count Ciano just before he started driving back to El Dabba that Italy's minister at the Vatican had been contacted by his British Counter Part seeking terms for Italy to take custody of the island, how he wished he could have had that a year earlier when the British where so much more weak in Africa. Taking the island now didn't mean much other than pride for Italy, the base had been destroyed for months and he didn't want to send any more ships into Tripoli if he could avoid it, but still it was a powerful blow to British prestige and would allow considerable assets still in Italy or in OKW reserves, particularly the air forces to be redeployed to help other operations. And also this morning an emissary of King Farouk had arrived to his headquarters in the ruined naval command building seeking to bring Rommel or an appropriate stand in to Cairo to negotiate how Egypt might be permitted to neutralize and have all the war parties leave her soil.

Rommel knew such a request would fall on deaf ears with Mussolini, who coveted Egypt to help round out his vision of the old Roman empire, he wondered if the Fuhrer might perhaps have a different interest, given that he had correspondence with Farouk last year and that alliance with the Muslim Arabs tied hand in hand with certain government political goals. Regardless, positive relations with the Egyptian public where intended by both of his masters and in his absence the DAK had been ordered to maintain good manners and relations with the people of Alexandria and it's suburbs and that all measures of discipline would be vigorously maintained. One of Rommel's harder choices was who would keep watch of his troopers whilst he was in Italy and Germany. When Cruell had been captured, almost bizarrely by the standards he had faced throughout his time in Africa, Rommel received an immediate replacement in General Der Panzer Truppen Walther Nehring who was a grizzled veteran of France and the Eastern Front. And late last week on Rommel's recommendation back from the day Cruell was captured Berlin had promoted Ulrich Kleeman of the 90th light to General Der Panzertruppen. He had nearly forgotten about that due to 24/7 operational tempo of the march through Libya and Egypt but it had come through and was backdated to March.

Kleeman always ran his own fiefdom and because it served the army's interests so well Rommel was content to let Kleeman continue to do so; and he was invested with establishing positive relations with the Egyptian public and Farook, he had shown a strong knack of working with the arabs throughout his time in africa. Kleeman didn't gripe about being passed over for the DAK, if anything he enjoyed being able to pull rank while still wielding his scalpel of the 90th light division

In either case both where far too junior to command the Panzer Army Africa and bringing someone from out of the theater would not sit well, nor would Hitler easily yield to an Italian commanding the PAA in it's glow of victory, but the solution was on hand, in the form of Field Marshal Kesselring who had grabbed a ground command during the height of Gazala and had so many positive relations and connections in both war partners command staffs; Despite his status as theater commander and the most active Luftwaffe commander, he still styled himself a thoughtful ground forces commander from his younger days in the army and he gladly accepted Rommel's request that he be the army's caretaker while he was gone

Rommel looked at his own field marshal's epulettes on his collar, if I was in Russia I would be commanding a million men; and thought to himself that his own tasks in the unique conditions of Africa where at least 3 times as complicated as what his collegues were facing in Russia. He wondered if his new situation in Africa was not unlike February 1941, with Malta now replaced with Cyprus and if Alexandria was as untenable as Tripoli was back then. Even though Italian and German engineering squads where diligently trying to increase the shipping capacity at Toburk, they estimated that it would be October before they could restore the harbor to 2/3 of it's prewar capacity, they simply didnt have the heavy breakdown equipment or the fuel to move any faster. This made his circular problem against Auchinlek so so difficult to consider

Rommel knew from his final intercepted reports that he was at infantry parity with Auchinlek and probably had more tanks, but because of the terrain and incredible amounts of ground he needed to secure in lower Egypt, that he needed infantry, not just replacements but the army needed to grow, and this would take time to get formations deployed to Africa and for the ports to be opened up enough to keep their bellies and cartridge pouches full, but he also knew from those same reports and other work done by the Abwehr that Auchinlek would be undergoing massive reinforcement, not only with 3 fresh large British divisions but 3 very large and well equipped American divisions. He had seen this problem play out in the desert a half a dozen times already and the problem remained the same the British would always reinforce faster than he could, so he was compelled to attack whilst they where still building up and unprepared; he wondered though, how many more times could he reach into that bag and how could he ever replicate the combat strength and surprise he had pulled off on May 26th at the point of attack at Gazala.

He had spoken on the progress and strength of the Eastern Front divisions with Nehring, Kesselring and Ribbentrop and he wasn't encouraged, unlike some of the less militarily educated members of the German goverment leadership cabal, Rommel could read a map and he had experience marching 100s of kilometers into vast swathes of nothing and enemies, which was not all together different that what the army would find marching towards Russia's oil producing regions. The thought they would be able to penetrate all their way to the Persian and Turkish borders this year and exert pressure which might be helpful to Rommel was something he found laughable looking at a map, even I wouldn't be so ambitious. He compared that against his own situation maps of Egypt, he was vastly closer to his strategic objectives than anything the army was in Russia, certainly for this year as it was already becoming late June and their offensive hadn't even started yet due to the need to counter attack (successfully he admitted) several Russian advances from the spring

It would be a hard discussion and ask, but as field marshal, let alone one basking in the glow of victory Rommel was entitled to present his opinion to Hitler. He would do his best as Goring suggested to tell the Fuhrer that victory was within sight in Egypt, and that the army should shift it's priorities to nourish and grow the PAA for it's drive on the Suez Canal and should either only mount a limited offensive in the East this year or shift more broadly to the defensive but with active panzer army reserves for counter attacks and let the axis use the sharpest points of it's inventory in Africa. He would want this proceed in tandem with a large scale arming of the Egyptian civilian population and formation of Egyptian legions who would fight the British if not as outright allies, at least as co-belligerents; he felt there were incredible opportunities in that arena to fundamentally weaken the overarching British strategic advantages in the theater and that should he be able to cross the canal and reach Palestine that those conditions could be escalated even further via his continuing to arm arabs and the messaging of Hitler and the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem. bringing them to the Axis cause against the British and the Jews

The alternatives where hard to consider because even the easiest one, negotiating to neutralize and evacuate Egypt like Farouk wanted, would mean abandoning everything the army had fought so hard and lost so many men to achieve, he shuddered thinking about it. If that becomes the most sensible course of action, I have failed as a general.

He barely noticed the aircraft touching down and refueling in Athens before lifting off again across the Adriatic for Rome as he furiously wrote possible plans for a drive on the canal on one table and updated his diaries and war memoirs on another; after all the war would end one day and he was certainly not doing to wait 15 years to publish his books this time.
 
Can someone please tell me why Auckinleck has not been replaced by now? Why is Alanbrooke not now in Egypt, ripping strips off him for the utter disaster that has happened, posting Corbett, Ritchie and Dorman-Smith to the Shetland Islands and replacing him immediately with Alexander and Montgomery? Why has Churchill not insisted on Alanbrooke doing so?
(Further weary sigh) Are the dice getting weighted again?
 

cardcarrier

Banned
Can someone please tell me why Auckinleck has not been replaced by now? Why is Alanbrooke not now in Egypt, ripping strips off him for the utter disaster that has happened, posting Corbett, Ritchie and Dorman-Smith to the Shetland Islands and replacing him immediately with Alexander and Montgomery? Why has Churchill not insisted on Alanbrooke doing so?
(Further weary sigh) Are the dice getting weighted again?
Its been mentioned in the Fellers updates that London has settled on cashiering Auchinlek and Smith but was waiting for the surrender of Malta to be completed, so that the last bit of agony and stain from the failure at Gazala can be pinned to them.

Ritchie was fired earlier in the timeline after the collapse at Tobruk and Gazala (OTL...ish)
 
Its been mentioned in the Fellers updates that London has settled on cashiering Auchinlek and Smith but was waiting for the surrender of Malta to be completed, so that the last bit of agony and stain from the failure at Gazala can be pinned to them.

Ritchie was fired earlier in the timeline after the collapse at Tobruk and Gazala (OTL...ish)
Then it should be made very clear that Alanbrooke is raging around HQ of 8th Army, appointing replacements as soon as possible. The Alexander-Montgomery pairing is the only possible solution.
In which case Rommel is - of course - doomed.
 

cardcarrier

Banned
Then it should be made very clear that Alanbrooke is raging around HQ of 8th Army, appointing replacements as soon as possible. The Alexander-Montgomery pairing is the only possible solution.
In which case Rommel is - of course - doomed.
I probably should have further pursued my introduction of ICGS laisons to GHQ which was created very early in the thread. Most of the allied side of the story has been told from Bonner Fellers (literally every update after Ritchie was sacked) perspective. Fellers has had GHQ staffers tell him privately that London was going to house clean GHQ including Auchinlek and Smith off and on since the minute Gambut fell and he mentioned the incredible sniping from the navy, air force and commonwealth senior officers against Smith and Auchinlek back to London (Fellers himself in the timeline, as he basically did in OTL recommends to his own superiors that Smith should be sent somewhere to count trees), but he wouldn't have a way of hearing/seeing Brooke or Churchill's reactions.

He has known for a couple days because of rumors/disclosures to him and Oswald that London was now firmly settled on command changes once the army would be safely evacuated and Malta's fate was dealt with. Relieving Auchinlek earlier than now would not have been practical because the army never stabilized to allow a sensible transfer of command; now that the Army has withdrawn behind the Nile into the Suez perimeter, they can restructure themselves and let the new regime go about rebuilding the army's moral in conjunction with the arrival of Fredendall's fresh divisions
 
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