Chapter 21
6-13-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Suez Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Brig General Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ and Pending Chief of Staff GSO1 to American Expeditionary Corps of Egypt
Report sent via US ARMY CIPHER SYSTEM (UNBREAKABLE)
Urgent update and personal obserations:
A high ranking Nazi spy on Rommel's payroll turned himself in to British authorities yesterday as we were evacuating!
Spy turned over all of his transmission logs with corresponding dates, including his coding system back to his handlers with Rommel's headquarters
His logs, along with our previous reviews and concerns, along with cross checking with our allies confirm axis penetration of code black systems!
We recommend all USA assets, military and civilian immediately transition off of code black system
We advise all USA intelligence, military and government assets evaluate any transmissions sent on code black since at least February 1942 as extensively penetrated by axis agents
All attache/GSO1 reports for now will be sent via US Army Cipher until further instructions are provided
The spy claims to not know of any other spies on Rommel's payroll, but it stands to reason they are like rats or cockroaches, Auchinlek has vowed to redouble security efforts in conjunction with stabilizing security situation in Egypt
Auchinlek is ordering extensive changes to 8th army, GHQ, and Desert Air Force radio security procedures going forward
Captured spy knew of Rapier and spread it to Egyptian Army Officers who where sympathetic to the axis, who in turn likely leaked it to Farouk's court, (although based on the chaos and smoky atmosphere at GHQ, this could have leaked from a number of parallel directions
Spy claims that those same army officers where stalking him, preparing for his execution
This spy was being sniffed at by local British security services since at least June 1st; our own intelligence agents and British agents consider his confessions so far to be legitimate
Auchinlek has vowed to make no more use of any Egyptian laborers or servants. He is also issuing a permanent order that officers may no longer visit Egyptian bars clubs and brothels going forward, to avoid loose lips in the presence of Rommel's ears
USA and main GHQ convoys have safely arrived in Suez
We are still reorienting our staff, all senior attache staff are accounted for, Auchinlek is securing a significant amount of office space inside the military port area for our group. Oswald is seeing to acquiring more space in Port Sudan
8th army GHQ staff nearly to a man is extraordinarily shaken
Baxter and Oswald are beginning the staff study of how to now properly deploy the American Air and Army forces to defeat Rommel in light of the great strategic shifts that have been occurring;
Baxter advises that previous schemes to bomb Tripoli from Egypt are no longer viable due to the loss of the base structures in the delta, increasing ranges and reducing directions which won't encounter substantial fighter opposition; Rommel now that he is so deep in to Egypt will likely no longer use Tripoli as his main staging base anyway, this will likely shift to Bengahzi and Tobruk supplemented by whatever small piers he has taken along the Egyptian coast and some of the small fishing villages on the frontier
Bengahzi and Toburk are in range of our bombers once they can be properly deployed and have their stockpiles safely amassed
Rommel's columns are less than 110 miles from alexandria and less than 25 miles from the Alamein line per air recon and contacts with Auchinlek's recon forces
There are still huge ongoing domestic disturbances throughout Egypt, especially in the large cities (except Suez); air bases around Port Said, and other points along the canal (except the Suez perimeter itself) are frequently being targeted by massed throngs of Egyptian Civilians and some elements of their military, equipped with pilfered British weapons
There is some possibility that Egyptian laborers in the service of the British army had diverted some weapon shipments intended for the Alamein line specifically to fight rapier, they have utilized some mortars and machine guns against British patrols, bases, depots and European civilians living in Egypt; based on the conditions with the spy and other leaks, this may have been going on for 10 days or perhaps longer
Oswald's current middle case assessment is that Rommel has the fuel to move his entire army such as it is known now to the Delta, since he hasn't had to maneuver off the high way much and has been seen utilizing some of the intact parts of the desert rail road between Tobruk and Sollum; rapier has seen to all the rail line inside of Egypt itself, as far back as the nile
Our own staff in partnership with GHQ is going to assess divisions presumed to be in Axis reserve, there is mixed opinion that once Rommel reaches the Nile that axis will release additional divisions to Rommel for internal security purposes and to stiffen his drive to Cairo and the Canal in conjunction with other Axis movements in South Russia
Because of Rommel's penetration of code black, he has maintained detailed knowledge of British armored strength and deployments
It is very likely that due to Rommel's spy insights into GHQ that he has been successfully able to mask his true armored strength and maneuver intentions, at least since the second battle of El Aghelia
It should be properly assessed and regarded that despite Farouk's calls to get every European out of Egypt, that there are significant elements of his army and civilian population who are hearing the radio Berlin broadcasts and familiar with the current difficulties of the ground war, and are or have become sympathetic to the axis, and would likely be willing to provide material support to Rommel as he penetrates into the civilian population centers
The potential of Rommel receiving additional reinforcements should be balanced against his known constraints of fuel and other items of supply, which even if Tripoli is now largely secure for him remain difficult for the forces he already has
The ability of the Egyptian population to provide material support to Rommel plus anything left behind or omitted by Rapier may also affect our considerations for him to receive and utilize reinforcements
Oswald estimates that Rommel will need a minimum of 8 weeks to rest and rebuild his army once he reaches the nile assuming minimal losses as the 8th army withdraws
Our assessment is that by that time, in conjunction with the arrival of fresh British and USA troops the 8th army would outnumber Rommel by a factor of at least 3 to 1 in men and 4 to 1 in armor; assuming he reinforces as fast as he did in March and April
The incredible flooding inflicted on the delta by Rapier has and is turning the Nile into a massive obstacle, Auchinlek's withdrawal, intact behind it will represent a powerful defensive position; but in turn should Rommel remain on the defensive it will serve the same purpose for him as well; creative maneuvers may be require to circumvent that once the 8th army gains the initiative
The desert air force would be making more runs on Rommel's columns but many of their facilities are under siege or have been evacuated in the face of rampaging Egyptians and relocated to the overcrowded Suez area
Oswalds middle case estimate is that Rommel still has 100-140 German tanks and 200-250 Italian tanks still operating and that his army with it's replacements is 65-85k men strong; Baxter advises that Rommel has received a number of air squadron reinforcements but that a full assessment is still a few days away; he thinks Rommel may have stood down some squadrons for rest after the hectic fighting over Gazala and Toburk.
The Axis have set up and advanced air strip at El Dabbah per recon flights late this afternoon, this gives them their first true potential to bomb the canal zone from Egyptian bases, instead of bombing it from Crete
Once the axis set up air strips closer or within Alexandria, those strikes against the canal zone can be escorted by fighters with fuel drop tanks; this would greatly complicate any future attempts to provide seaborne supply convoys to Malta from our area of Operations or to stage Royal Navy Submarines into the theater
Chaos of rampaging Egyptian civilians renders the canal unusable for now anyway, but there is a significant medium term risk there from the axis air forces in terms of bombing and observation
Rommel's future intentions are not known, in that sense that once he feels himself ready for an offensive, if he would strike south towards Cairo, looking to scoop up the jewel of Britain's presence on the Nile, or if he would try to cross the many water ways of the Nile and drive east towards Port Said and get at the Suez Canal itself; Rommel's spy claims to not know any of his offensive plans after he reached
Auchinlek has set requests to ICGS asking for London's preferred defensive priorities in regards to this, pending his getting the boiling domestic turmoil in Egypt under control
Auchinlek and Smith have been working many hours under grave circumstances the last 96 hours, they appear completely exhausted
GHQ rumors are that London is going to whole sale replace the command structure of the 8th army once the front stabilizes and the entaglements with the civilian population are ended
Rapier is still ongoing, against fanatical resistance by the Egyptian public and it's army, there are pitched gun battles and even hand to hand fighting all along the Nile. There are 10s perhaps hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming out of Alexandria and Cairo, the whole country is moving about progressively becoming more armed and certainly more blood thirsty.
Radio Berlin propaganda and certain other propagandas fueled by the axis (per our previous reports) have fueled a certain amount of shocking violent tendancies, as were seen in the riots in Cairo the last 72 hours, the entire Jewish quarter was burned, and many hundreds of Jews, just as much as British soldiers where yanked into the streets and beaten up or in some cases lined up against walls and shot, nothing Farouk has broadcast does anything to cool these tempers
Those tempers are being fueled in mosques throughout the country, but especially in Cairo with leaflets saying that the British and the Jews are burning mosques in palestine, and slaughtering Arab women and children
In one of Farouk's later broadcasts tonight he advised that the government of Egypt was going to nationalize and confiscate all the holdings of the Suez Canal company and all British/Commonwealth investments in Egypt as just compensation for Rapier. He called upon the Egyptian nation to confiscate the Canal in it's totality by force and to block any further British destruction of infrastructures on the Nile
Trying to discuss that matter with Smith or Auchinlek was impossible, they simply said it's a matter for the Navy and London for now until they can get more troops deployed
Whole rapier parties are being over-run and killed by furious Egyptian civilians along the nile per GHQ private staffer conversations, the troops suffer savage beatings, typically having their legs smashed and there have even been some reports that they are being tied up and tossed to Nile Crocodiles
This disruption and indeed heavy losses to much of Auchinlek's rear support structures are in their own way more damaging than what happened to his army at Belhamed, it will take the 8th army a long time to be strong to the core again, even under new leadership
I tied asking Smith if the possibility of Rommel raising arab/Egyptian legions for his army has been seriously considered, particularly since he will now control some population centers and that British prestige in the region has taken a hit
Smith advised that, that could present grave difficulties and that it was essential to drive Rommel back as soon as possible
There was a long heated meeting about Malta this evening, the Navy says they have no viable way to evacuate the battalions or any substantial part of the civilian population off the island with the loss of the Delta fleet base and the projection Rommel's air force
The navy was even more furious about the spy issues than the army or air force believing that they have lost many ships in the face of their sailings being disclosed
Their recommendation in light of the prospect of mass starvation on the is to try to make an arrangement with the government of Turkey to take custody of the island for the remainder of the war, if that can be arranged with the British and Axis ambassadors in Ankara, direct negotiation/handing the islands over to the Italians to ease the starvation is forbidden by London
The previous prospect of the long rumored operation Herkules is probably less than it was in the spring per our own assessments and GHQ, Rommel has received a lot of the forces we had identified as being labeled for that attack, and with Rommel being on the cusp of taking Alexandria, the Island's ability to dominate his lines of relevant supply is gone; a number of GHQ staffers and Royal Navy staffers believe the Turkish solution would be agreeable to all sides and would let all parties focus their efforts on the current issues at hand; or in the words of Admiral Harwood tonight, the citizens of Malta have endured 15,000 axis bombing sorties, they do not deserve to starve to death
end transmission