Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

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Garrison

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Its been mentioned in the Fellers updates that London has settled on cashiering Auchinlek and Smith but was waiting for the surrender of Malta to be completed, so that the last bit of agony and stain from the failure at Gazala can be pinned to them.

Ritchie was fired earlier in the timeline after the collapse at Tobruk and Gazala (OTL...ish)
Well firstly the idea that Churchill is going to delay replacing these failed Generals is absurd. Auchinlek will carry the can for Malta regardless. Also I rechecked the date of the first action in the TL in post #3 that was 05-27-1942 in the latest its 6-17-42, how could they possibly organize and launch Operation Hercules in that timeframe? Especially given that when issues have been raised about the British response to certain events the explanation has on several occasions been that only a few weeks have passed.
 

cardcarrier

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Well firstly the idea that Churchill is going to delay replacing these failed Generals is absurd. Auchinlek will carry the can for Malta regardless. Also I rechecked the date of the first action in the TL in post #3 that was 05-27-1942 in the latest its 6-17-42, how could they possibly organize and launch Operation Hercules in that timeframe? Especially given that when issues have been raised about the British response to certain events the explanation has on several occasions been that only a few weeks have passed.
There is no Hercules, Rommel received most of the Hercules troopers as reinforcements. Malta is surrendering because it's food and fuel situation in light of the cancellation of Operation Julius and the loss of Alexandria and withdrawal of the fleet into the red sea is hopeless.

This is sort of a mixed roll; Operation Julius was unintentionally leaked by Fellers in OTL and was defeated by the Italian fleet and axis aircraft (two ships did get through to keep the Island going for another month, but numerous warships and merchies where sunk or damaged); here Fellers realizes he is compromised a couple of days earlier than OTL and the British (in conjunction with the loss of security at Alexandria) cancel Julius once they know the axis know it's coming. Without Julius or any possibility of supply any time soon Malta's situation would be dire and it's strategic value has largely passed, continuing to hold on at this point is only inflicting suffering on the civilian population

When in the timeline would it have made sense to sack Auchinlek? They where still conducting their withdrawal up until 2 days ago
 
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cardcarrier

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When is something going to go right for the Allies?
The allies in the grand scheme of things are fine, this has been a severe tactical setback and blow to prestige, but the great balance of the war is hardly moved at all

The 8th army has 6 big fresh divisions and many hundreds of tanks en route... Shermans, a full generation better than anything Rommel has. And while we know because of the heavy handed ness of the tactical setback that the 8th army will need time to rebuild itself we know Montgomery is the man for the job, 100 days after he took over the 8th army in OTL it was a powerful, nearly unstoppable offensive force, could it take longer here because of how badly the British have been driven back and the loss of their eastern and central med spring boards; quite possibly but the grand balance is fully in place; May 1942 is far too late to change any of the strategic calculus against the axis
 
The allies in the grand scheme of things are fine, this has been a severe tactical setback and blow to prestige, but the great balance of the war is hardly moved at all

The 8th army has 6 big fresh divisions and many hundreds of tanks en route... Shermans, a full generation better than anything Rommel has. And while we know because of the heavy handed ness of the tactical setback that the 8th army will need time to rebuild itself we know Montgomery is the man for the job, 100 days after he took over the 8th army in OTL it was a powerful, nearly unstoppable offensive force, could it take longer here because of how badly the British have been driven back and the loss of their eastern and central med spring boards; quite possibly but the grand balance is fully in place; May 1942 is far too late to change any of the strategic calculus against the axis

Okay. It'll be nice to see some evidence the Allies are capable of anything but retreating. I look forward to it.
 

Garrison

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There is no Hercules, Rommel received most of the Hercules troopers as reinforcements. Malta is surrendering because it's food and fuel situation in light of the cancellation of Operation Julius and the loss of Alexandria and withdrawal of the fleet into the red sea is hopeless.
And all of this is still happening in less than three weeks and none of it provides a plausible explanation for Churchill's hesitancy in replacing these Generals.
 
The allies in the grand scheme of things are fine, this has been a severe tactical setback and blow to prestige, but the great balance of the war is hardly moved at all

The 8th army has 6 big fresh divisions and many hundreds of tanks en route... Shermans, a full generation better than anything Rommel has. And while we know because of the heavy handed ness of the tactical setback that the 8th army will need time to rebuild itself we know Montgomery is the man for the job, 100 days after he took over the 8th army in OTL it was a powerful, nearly unstoppable offensive force, could it take longer here because of how badly the British have been driven back and the loss of their eastern and central med spring boards; quite possibly but the grand balance is fully in place; May 1942 is far too late to change any of the strategic calculus against the axis
Yes the Americans are coming but where will this time line's Kasserine going to be.?
 

cardcarrier

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And all of this is still happening in less than three weeks and none of it provides a plausible explanation for Churchill's hesitancy in replacing these Generals.
Malta had it's rations desperately shaved down in this period, because of the previous 10k plus axis bombing sorties in the spring against the island, without the little bit of food and fuel that made it in tact for operation Julius there was no way for them to hold on, Malta was not food self sufficient, their agricultural sector only produced 1/3 of their food stuffs needs and with Rommel pushing the front so far back that the fleet base has to be burned it would be obvious to all that the Island could either be surrendered or starved to death

I don't believe I've had churchill show excessive hesitancy canning Auchinlek and Smith. When in the timeline should he have done it? He pushed through Ritchie being relieved after Tobruk and Gazala fell (which is essentially OTL) Auchinlek planned to fight a defensive battle at Alamein, but was compelled to withdraw due to the uprising of the Egyptians creating instability in all the army's rear areas; he withdrew the army in tact and is lined up now by London to be sacked. If Churchill sacked him earlier it could have caused the army to become more disorganized and delayed it's withdrawal; bear in mind any replacement has to come from far away, most of the senior command staff where captured or killed in Libya, and those that survived are stained by the heavy defeat; he has to bring in fresh generals from the outside; now that the army is in a safe defensive position he can sack those that lost Gazala in an orderly fashion and replace them with competent commanders
 
Yes the Americans are coming but where will this time line's Kasserine going to be.?
Kasserine pass was terrain very suitable for an inexperienced American force to screw up royally and get defeated in detail. The US may get a better go at it in this timeline because the terrain probably won't be as challenging when they have their first encounter with real opposition as in OTL.
 
General Fredendall was greeted by Auchinlek at the docks,
:rolleyes: Made a fast passage then.
Auchinlek in conjunction with my staff believe that the reinvigorated 8th army, with American troops should be fully online and ready for offensive action no later than 9/10
Can you break down the US mobilisation, shipping and acclimation times as that looks very short/
 
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Oh and at some point there will have to be a meeting between Rommel and Rauff over the issue of Einsatzgruppe Africa. After all the latter has a pogrom to organise along with a lot of murders in Egypt. Not that Rommel or his men will lift a finger to stop them.
 
26

cardcarrier

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Chapter 26

6-18-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Suez Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Brig General Bonner Fellers and Lt Colonel Oswald, American military attache to MEGHQ (Oswald)and Chief of Staff GSO1 (Fellers) to American Expeditionary Corps of Egypt
Report sent via US ARMY CIPHER SYSTEM (UNBREAKABLE)

Urgent report and personal observations

AECE staff is largely stood up and activated and is taking responsibility for all USA ground and air troops in Egypt under General Fredendal
Office space has been located and AECE cartopgraphy, signals and inteligence officers are on day 1 of getting the lay of the land in Egypt
General Fredendall and General Auchinlek agreed to run some soup kitchens/ration distribution stations both inside the Suez security perimeter and at it's outer edge for displaced (unarmed) civilians to try and disperse and cool off the angry crowds that keep forming
General Fredendall hope that tempers can cooled with quality American beef and bread instead of bullets with the Egyptians
Our staff feels there could be some chance in the medium term, since General Fredendall and all USA personel are new to Egypt that we might reset relations with the Egyptians over time
Amabassador Lampson was recalled by London by late last night, this should make our efforts for the above a great deal easier, our staff has repeatedly reported that Ambassador Lampson had violent and oppressive attitudes towards the Egyptians and his relationship with Farouk could never possibly be repaired
Randolph Churchill will be traveling back to London with Lampson, as his back is finally well enough to travel home, great efforts had to be made in the GHQ evacuation to not lose him to the Egyptian mobs, because of his limited mobility
We were pleased (as was GHQ)that additional USA government and civil affairs personel have been approved and that a military officer will be placed in direct authorized control of relations with the Egyptians in stead of Kirk; Kirk's lifestyle is offensive to Farouk and to his court and he has much of the same history of bad blood that Lampson shared
Our staff highly recommends that additional USA infantry units (even if not front line capable) take similar combination of ship and flight to reach Suez or Port Sudan as soon as possible to boost AECE presence and security abilities
Oswald and I have made arrangements with Navy GHQ staffers for priority and rapid unloading of the 1st armored division when they arrive
British laborers and soldiers are constructing additional barracks and garages in the perimeter expressly for the 1st armored division
British laborers and soldiers are constructing dedicated workshop spaces for the 1st armored division to prepare their equipment for the desert
British laborers and soldiers are preparing a training ground for the 1st armored division on the southwest edge of the perimeter in the open flat desert scape
Smith and Auchinlek know they are due to be relieved very shortly but have busied themselves organizing the port for the fastest possible deployment of reinforcements
Additionally Smith has been putting a plan to pen for the reorganizing British 7th armored division and the 1st USA armored to advance along both sides of the Suez canal and to reestablish allied security control of it's entire length before regaining control of Port Said
His general idea is that this would allow the British fleet to return to the Eastern Med at some point and establish at least it's lighter units in Cyprus, and Haifa
Long term closure of the canal is considered completely unacceptable to all GHQ staffers and I am advised by other attaches and Navy staff that it has dire effects on strategic transportation for the war against Japan
There are also good airfields around Port Said that where evacuated inside of the Egyptian uprising and establishment of the Suez Perimeter that are important to regain to establish air dominance against Rommel in Egypt
Desert Airforce technicians have built their first 12 examples of sandstorm trucks with aircraft engines in the bed and are testing them in the South West Open Desert, Oswald found them to be similarly effective to the ones deployed by Rommel in Libya
Desert Airforce staffers have promised a company of 16 converted vehicles to be gifted to the 1st armored on it's arrival in Egypt
A dedicated area for a USA long range bombers has finally been arranged in the eastern part of the perimeter, stockpiling of supplies started this morning and British laborers are preparing 3 long hard metal runways
Given the geography of our current position, USA fighter aircraft will face many of the same issues the desert air force encountered in Libya, regarding fighting at the extreme ends of their range, every shipment of long range fuel drop tanks is as vital as the arrival of the fighters and their pilots to Egypt
Baxter advises that the airfield should be prepared on a primitive basis within a week and that bombing sorties should be able to start at a slow place against Rommel's supply lines and columns
The desert air force is still setting up additional fields for their displaced and orphan aircraft from the evacuations and relocating/building fresh stock piles of fuel ammunitions and bombs for their machines; all priority had been given to restablishing their longer ranged fighters at the expense of everything else, but that will begin to change now that the front has stabilized; they too are in desperate need of drop tanks
Desert air force staffers are confident that within a month they will have significant air control above most of Egypt and feel that Rommel strung out so far from his primary bases of supply where his fuel, bombs and ammunitions come from will not be able to have his fighters and dive bombers generate such terrific numbers of missions like he did at Gazala
The Desert Air Force starting tomorrow will have standing patrols above the Suez Perimeter in all hours of daylight to try and prevent axis raids against the unloading ships
Axis bombers from Crete do not have the range to hit our positions here and the Axis has not established any permanent air bases in Egypt yet, they do have a big base under construction at El Dabba where the nuisance raids against Suez are being launched from
General Fredenall remarked to us today after inspecting the sand trucks along side Oswald that the terrain in Egypt is very different than the scrub forests and swamps of Louisiana that the army conducted it's training maneuvers in this year
He is drafting a memorandum to suggest that future training for any troops deployed to Egypt after the first 3 divisions include maneuvers in West Texas or a similar location that more closely resembles what they would see in Egypt
He is also drafting an additional memorandum that once a sufficient reserve of training tanks is on hand that USA tank crews should be combination shipped/flown to arrive faster because they need desert warfare courses which can be completed before their permanent equipment arrives, they can also serve as emergency replacements for existing divisions if there shipping delays in their equipment as well
General Fredendall is reviewing our previous assessment of needed infantry divisions to maintain internal security in Egypt as the army advances back on Rommel, he believes our previous estimate of 6 allied infantry divisions is too light and that it might take 10-11 divisions to maintain internal security and lines of communication.
That sort of additional force would congest Suez and even port Sudan far into the future; if that many men are truly needed it is vital that the canal be retaken, so that access to Port Said might be restored, and that we obtain more space to deploy our divisions and their tails
The staff as currently on hand and authorized is only sufficient to control 5 divisions with a firm hand, if additional USA troopers are authorized our headquarters will need additional manpower
General Fredendall is drawing up a formal request for additional bridging engineers and specialist infantry which the army will need for it's offensive
General Fredendall is drawing up a formal request for one additional water purification company for each division in Egypt and a battalion dedicated to fresh water as a corps asset
GHQ staffers are putting the final polish on a more substantial post mortem analysis of their failures in Libya and plan to introduce significant changes to combat training and doctrine once they receive their new commander
It largely expected that the new commander of the 8th army and the GHQ will make wholesale changes to the officer structure of the troops under their command looking for new people not burdened by the failure in Libya or the culture of excessively low morale that has beset the British army
Auchinlek has introduced significantly more drastic measures to track down stragglers and has active checkpoints throughout the Suez Perimeter
As much as a new 8th army commander will have the task of reorganizing and rebuilding the defeated army, their first and foremost task in our opinion will be their need to raise the chin of the 8th army and restore the morale and discipline of the army.
Lord Gort has begun negotiations with Italy to take over Malta which we are told are proceeding at a moderate pace using the Vatican as an intermediary. Auchinlek privately confided to me that if he were in Gort's shoes he would have made the same decisions knowing the quarter of a million civilians would see life and death starvation in a matter of weeks, he admits that Gort is doing the right thing to spare them such suffering and that there was nothing within the GHQ's power to head it off
Some GHQ staffers believe that most of the freed up axis aircraft from Malta's capitulation will be sent to Russia due to the lack of fuel in the theater
Our own staff is preparing several cases of what Rommel might do with a temporary heavy infusion of airpower
Attache staffs attached to the Russian army are preparing a similar study for their own theater
General Fredendall has asked general Smith about building more substantial air defense bunkers for the Suez perimeter, there has been no response on this yet
 

cardcarrier

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:rolleyes: Made a fast passage then.

Can you break down the US mobilisation, shipping and acclimation times as that looks very short/
Fredendall was combination shipped/flown so he arrived well in advance of the combat troops

1st armored will begin arriving 1st-2nd week in July
2nd armored and 1st infantry later in July beginning of August
 

cardcarrier

Banned
Oh and at some point there will have to be a meeting between Rommel and Rauff over the issue of Einsatzgruppe Africa. After all the latter has a pogrom to organise along with a lot of murders in Egypt. Not that Rommel or his men will lift a finger to stop them.
If Rauff has an organized unit ready to ship Rommel wouldn't mind or care...I'd still be inclined to think the faster and easier solution for him on the larger scale would be to arm egyptian civilians to go slaughter the Jews considering their attitudes/susceptibility to axis anti Jewish propaganda (the Egyptian public performed their own Pogram in November 1945 in OTL as it was) and got rid of the rest progressively after 1948,56 and the very last of them by 67
 
Rauff's own diaries from North Africa in '42 and '43 stated he believed the political situation was not conducive to 'extermination operations'.

Ultimately small numbers of SS would end up filling in well behind the battlefronts given enough time, but I am not convinced they would go further then they did in Tunisia anytime soon. By in large they don't need to as they can play on local religious grievances.
 

cardcarrier

Banned
Rauff's own diaries from North Africa in '42 and '43 stated he believed the political situation was not conducive to 'extermination operations'.

Ultimately small numbers of SS would end up filling in well behind the battlefronts given enough time, but I am not convinced they would go further then they did in Tunisia anytime soon. By in large they don't need to as they can play on local religious grievances.
There is a certain amount of what the Italians will or will not permit to be considered, Rommel deported the Jews in Libya but not exterminate them even though he had plenty of time to, so I would presume his instructions where just to ghettoize and loot the ones in Libya and not to massacre them. Letting the Egyptians root out and slaughter the Jews (whilst turning a blind eye; and handing out the rifles to do so) is different than the SS setting up organized extermination camps like they had in Russia and Poland;
Italy in this period only did repression against Jews not institutionalized slaughter like Germany did, they might not be on board with getting their hands so dirty (but likely to be indifferent to letting the Egyptians do it)
 
There is a certain amount of what the Italians will or will not permit to be considered, Rommel deported the Jews in Libya but not exterminate them even though he had plenty of time to, so I would presume his instructions where just to ghettoize and loot the ones in Libya and not to massacre them. Letting the Egyptians root out and slaughter the Jews (whilst turning a blind eye; and handing out the rifles to do so) is different than the SS setting up organized extermination camps like they had in Russia and Poland;
Italy in this period only did repression against Jews not institutionalized slaughter like Germany did, they might not be on board with getting their hands so dirty (but likely to be indifferent to letting the Egyptians do it)
Important part bolded. Sorry, but rubbish. The Einsatzgruppen organised pogroms involving locals during Barbarossa. They wound them up, gave them what they needed and sat back as local Lithuanians, Latvians and Russians murdered Jews on an ad hoc basis. It's a key thread of the Holocaust. There is no difference.
 
Important part bolded. Sorry, but rubbish. The Einsatzgruppen organised pogroms involving locals during Barbarossa. They wound them up, gave them what they needed and sat back as local Lithuanians, Latvians and Russians murdered Jews on an ad hoc basis. It's a key thread of the Holocaust. There is no difference.
In the eyes of the law, if you hand a loaded gun to someone so that they can then go and commit murder, you are as guilty as the man who pulled the trigger.
 

Garrison

Donor
There is a certain amount of what the Italians will or will not permit to be considered, Rommel deported the Jews in Libya but not exterminate them even though he had plenty of time to.
So sending the Jews off to god knows what fate (and lets be clear he would have known what was happening even if he didn't know all the details) so he could keep his hands clean is okay? You do know that one reason for the gas chambers was to spare the delicate sensibilities of the troops who were being 'traumatised' by having to shoot, beat and burn alive all their Jewish victims? Rommel playing Pontius Pilate does not make him one iota less culpable for the fates of those deported any more than the fact he didn't recruit the slave labour used to build the Atlantic Wall makes him less responsible for the fate of those workers. Rommel had no problems whatsoever with Hitler's plans for the Slavs and Jews right up until it was clear Germany was going to lose.
 
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