Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

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Pangur

Donor
OTL Rommel's aircraft of choice was the Fieseler Storch. Even Churchill used a captured one to fly into the beech landing after D-day.
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Churchill using a captured German aircraft strikes me as very dangerous and x times as much flying in to Normandy, thats surely looking for blue on blue
 

ferdi254

Banned
Theoretically right but was there any chance that any allied fighter pilot would really think a German Storch would fly there?
 
You can bet your bottom dollar that any aircraft carrying Winston is going to have a very powerful close escort of RAF fighters. Blue on Blue is highly unlikely (just keep the USAAF somewhere else!) under those circumstances .
 

Pangur

Donor
Theoretically right but was there any chance that any allied fighter pilot would really think a German Storch would fly there?
Yes there is, it's rather small but it's there n that's Churchill sitting in the back. Shit can and will happen
 

cardcarrier

Banned
regarding Rommel's choice of aircraft, he did, his long range ~strategic tours~ of the front in a Heinkel 111 during operation sunflower, which is the experience I pasted in for his review of the chaos in Alexandria and the delta

please also forgive my awful and reflexive Americanized spelling of everything
 
regarding Rommel's choice of aircraft, he did, his long range ~strategic tours~ of the front in a Heinkel 111 during operation sunflower, which is the experience I pasted in for his review of the chaos in Alexandria and the delta

please also forgive my awful and reflexive Americanized spelling of everything
don't worry, you do good job writing the story, and that slipping in happens to everyone.
we are all conditioned by the environment we live in, very much more so than we sometimes realise.
 

cardcarrier

Banned
His name is Erwin Rommel.

So this situation might actually benefit them, a reduced case blue means no battle/siege of stalingrad, which should reduce the loss of life considerably.
I haven't figured out what any of those deliberations means exactly, it just felt logical to me, that in the context of Super Gazala/Egyptian revolt/Rapier/fleet evacuation/malta becoming permanently neutralized all occurring between 5/26 and 6/13, that at minimum there would be an escalation of voices who where already inclined to suggest a shift to greater efforts against the British and or shifting to a defensive posture vs the Russians would be bolstered and try to change the summer/fall strategic plans while there was still a window to postpone or cancel Paulus/Hoth/Kliest jump offs for case blue
 
I haven't figured out what any of those deliberations means exactly, it just felt logical to me, that in the context of Super Gazala/Egyptian revolt/Rapier/fleet evacuation/malta becoming permanently neutralized all occurring between 5/26 and 6/13, that at minimum there would be an escalation of voices who where already inclined to suggest a shift to greater efforts against the British and or shifting to a defensive posture vs the Russians would be bolstered and try to change the summer/fall strategic plans while there was still a window to postpone or cancel Paulus/Hoth/Kliest jump offs for case blue
I mean I doubt they would win, Hitler was always much more focused on russia, but it sertenly wouldn't hurt.
 

cardcarrier

Banned
I mean I doubt they would win, Hitler was always much more focused on russia, but it sertenly wouldn't hurt.
Hitler being focused on case blue above all in this period might qualify as a trope of history, considering his refusal to pull reserves out of the 9th army's sector even after the Soviets where comprehensively beaten at Rhezev in August; or more apt to the time line here

Although Rommel was historically starved of supplies/reinforcements in June (which is obviously different in my timeline), he did convince his superiors in July that his army was on the verge of total destruction (which it was), and he did receive substantial reinforcements; including over 40,000 troops and hundreds of armored vehicles (over 1200 miles from his main supply bases) in July and August which gave him the strength to launch the battle of Alam Halfa ridge

So when we see things in case blue like the 6th army running out of fuel repeatedly in July and August, and Army Group A repeatedly running out of fuel in July and August; it was in the context of the axis making a very substantial effort to rebuild Rommel's army including tremendous drains on total fuel reserves; that leaves me left to wonder, with what I have done here, bringing Rommel's critical resupply/reinforcement issues forward by 4 weeks, if that doesn't cause Case blue to need to be postponed or at least scaled back, because in my timeline Hitler and Halder/Jodl have have 3 weeks advance knowledge of Rommel's desperate need for supplies/reinforcements as opposed to Rommel's heavy defeat at first Alamein happening a week after Case Blue had already started which lead to the clusterfuck of nobody getting enough fuel because everyone's situations where on fire at the same time. The Kriegsmarine's opinions on this situation would be interesting as well and open to speculation I think
 
Hitler being focused on case blue above all in this period might qualify as a trope of history, considering his refusal to pull reserves out of the 9th army's sector even after the Soviets where comprehensively beaten at Rhezev in August; or more apt to the time line here

Although Rommel was historically starved of supplies/reinforcements in June (which is obviously different in my timeline), he did convince his superiors in July that his army was on the verge of total destruction (which it was), and he did receive substantial reinforcements; including over 40,000 troops and hundreds of armored vehicles (over 1200 miles from his main supply bases) in July and August which gave him the strength to launch the battle of Alam Halfa ridge

So when we see things in case blue like the 6th army running out of fuel repeatedly in July and August, and Army Group A repeatedly running out of fuel in July and August; it was in the context of the axis making a very substantial effort to rebuild Rommel's army including tremendous drains on total fuel reserves; that leaves me left to wonder, with what I have done here, bringing Rommel's critical resupply/reinforcement issues forward by 4 weeks, if that doesn't cause Case blue to need to be postponed or at least scaled back, because in my timeline Hitler and Halder/Jodl have have 3 weeks advance knowledge of Rommel's desperate need for supplies/reinforcements as opposed to Rommel's heavy defeat at first Alamein happening a week after Case Blue had already started which lead to the clusterfuck of nobody getting enough fuel because everyone's situations where on fire at the same time. The Kriegsmarine's opinions on this situation would be interesting as well and open to speculation I think
I'm pretty sure reinforcements from 9th army weren't sent because there were intelligence reports throughout 1942 of a major Soviet attack in that sector (obviously didn't come untill the same time a saturn but still)

The fule situation had far more to do with the trable logistics in getting fule to army groups A and B then in Germany not have enough fule at that time. Someone mechond earlier how it starts taking several gallons of fule to get a gallon of fule to the front lines when your hundreds of miles from your rail head.
 
Hitler being focused on case blue above all in this period might qualify as a trope of history, considering his refusal to pull reserves out of the 9th army's sector even after the Soviets where comprehensively beaten at Rhezev in August; or more apt to the time line here

Although Rommel was historically starved of supplies/reinforcements in June (which is obviously different in my timeline), he did convince his superiors in July that his army was on the verge of total destruction (which it was), and he did receive substantial reinforcements; including over 40,000 troops and hundreds of armored vehicles (over 1200 miles from his main supply bases) in July and August which gave him the strength to launch the battle of Alam Halfa ridge

So when we see things in case blue like the 6th army running out of fuel repeatedly in July and August, and Army Group A repeatedly running out of fuel in July and August; it was in the context of the axis making a very substantial effort to rebuild Rommel's army including tremendous drains on total fuel reserves; that leaves me left to wonder, with what I have done here, bringing Rommel's critical resupply/reinforcement issues forward by 4 weeks, if that doesn't cause Case blue to need to be postponed or at least scaled back, because in my timeline Hitler and Halder/Jodl have have 3 weeks advance knowledge of Rommel's desperate need for supplies/reinforcements as opposed to Rommel's heavy defeat at first Alamein happening a week after Case Blue had already started which lead to the clusterfuck of nobody getting enough fuel because everyone's situations where on fire at the same time. The Kriegsmarine's opinions on this situation would be interesting as well and open to speculation I think
I don't believe the fuel shortages in Russia were caused by sending fuel to Rommel. The logistical breakdown was caused by the rapid advance which was faster then the logistical train could follow. No matter what happened in North Africa Army Groups A & B would've had serious supply problems. Army Group A would never have the fuel to reach Baku.
 
Cool story, and we'll written A bit of repetition in some of the posts did make me wonder if I had accidentally hot back on my keyboard. Looking forward to more.
 
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22 Malta is starving

cardcarrier

Banned
Chapter 22

6-14-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Suez Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Brig General Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ and Pending Chief of Staff GSO1 to American Expeditionary Corps of Egypt
Report sent via US ARMY CIPHER SYSTEM (UNBREAKABLE)

Urgent report and personal observations:

All Royal Navy staffers and Admiral Harwood have advised London to cancel operations Baritone and Train (ferrying Spitfires to Malta), due to the failure to supply additional aviation fuel to the island, and the likely leaks of these operations due to the penetration of Code Black; and Rommel's capture of significant secret documents in Tobruk
Auchinlek and Smith have requested those air assets be diverted to Egypt around the cape because those are more technically capable fighters that would help establish permanent air control over Egypt
Several of Auchinlek's Rapier teams where overrun in Damanhur, trying to destroy the canals and other infrastructures there; Damanhur is an important agricultural center on the western most edge of the delta, less than 2 hours motoring time from Alexandria; this resulted in the Desert Air Force being called in, which launched heavy low altitude raids on the canals and food storage houses along the water ways
The above unfortunately triggered additional furious radio messages from Farouk who denounced "air piracy against Egyptian civilians in Damanhur, for the purposes of destroying their food and flooding their homes"
Farouk then called upon his subjects to surround and destroy every British air base in Egypt, and to feed the air pirates to the nile crocodiles
This was already a significant ongoing problem in lower/central Egypt, as Egyptian civilians and military where already storming British air bases, but now the problem is dramatically escalated; which unfortunately is conceding much of the air space in lower/coastal Egypt to the axis air forces, which is largely allowing their supply ships to run from Crete to Tobruk unmolested
British labor and military camps all along the Suez canal, except at the Suez perimeter itself at the entrance to the Red Sea have been driven back or overrun by Egyptian mobs
Port Said and Cairo at this point are more in the control of local Egyptians responding to Farouk's messages than any other force
Auchinlek's main forces in Lower Egypt have withdrawn east of Alexandria and are frequently having to disperse mobs as they retire past the Delta, and are also having some elements assaulted by Egyptian civilians furious over the destructions of Rapier
Because of the insecurity of the roads, and water crossings, some army equipment is having to be destroyed rather than evacuated with the troops to keep the divisions nimble
The above further contributes to the long expected delay before the 8th army will be a true offensive force again, even with the introduction of USA ground troops and armor
GHQ staff are counting the days/hours/minutes until USA ground troops arrive, still slated 7/10 for, advance detachments of 1st armored division
Lack of secure air base structures in Egypt, and desperate (and unfortunately escalating) overcrowding in the Suez perimeter is once again delaying build up of USA bomber forces; if situation remains this poor and Rommel establishes true air bases in Alexandria, he will be able to hit not just the canal zone but Suez itself with escorted bombers
A GHQ staffer privately disclosed to me that he has been asked to study the effects of a great amount of the Egyptian population coming (with or without Rommel's help) to storm Suez and drive the British army out of Egypt
He advised, that he is evaluating possible evacuations across the canal into the Sinai peninsula or south towards port Sudan, but that losing Suez itself would render remaining resistance in the theater very difficult to contemplate
The staffer did also advise however that he believed the British fleet could prevent any great concentration of Egyptian civilians by firing warning shots into their assemblies, and that Auchinlek does not want to manage any more retreats, so all stops will be pulled
GHQ is rife with rumors that London is furious with the collapse of the army and loss of so much of it's equipment in Egypt, and the domino political effects, that Auchinlek and most of the GHQ staff will be relieved once the army is safely out of lower Egypt
Our own staff has found the morale of the staff officers and the British troops alike after the harrowing experiences of the last 3 weeks to be comprehensively shaken
It is our opinion that once the line stabilizes for Rommel's consolidation period that a new leadership regime should be brought in for the 8th army which is not stained by the heavy defeats,; or at the very minimum general Smith should be relieved and replaced with someone with better relationships with the remaining division and regimental commanders
Our staff is very much looking forward to General Fredendall's arrival next week in advance of the troops, the presence of a high ranking American ground forces commander (even if the troops and tanks still need a little more time to get here) should boost morale; the commander will most certainly have his hands full, there is a lot of war to fight here
Additionally our staff is of the opinion that if it is USA chain of command goal to cool down the outbreak of rebellion in Egypt and to possibly restore relations with Farouk, that additional USA diplomatic or government members should be brought to Suez to handle negotiations; it has been made more than obvious in the burning of the American and British embassies that Farouk will not deal with Kirk or Lampson again. There may ultimately need to be a tight line walked here by the necessities of the allied war effort and the significant suffering the people of Egypt are going to endure in the face of Rapier, to make our presence here be easier to sustain in the long term
Royal Navy staffers here and in Gibraltar, along with Auchinlek's staff have been in numerous sorrowful discussions about the fate of Malta
Auchinlek was advised by his commanders on the Island that despite existing, strict rationing, that significant malnutrition among the civilian population and the garrison will be in effect by the second week in July, and that full on starvation of the most horrific kind will exist by the end of that month, aviation and other fuels even at absolute minimum use will be exhausted in 7 days
I tried to get a strait answer out of Smith and Auchinlek if the island's garrison would be able to resist in the event of any landings occurring anywhere, Smith says because of the lack of possible air cover and low quantities of food on the island, that conditions would be worse than the battle of Crete last year; Smith regards Crete as having been an unmitigated disaster for GHQ, having taken in excess of 16k casualties, and lost many Navy ships sunk or damaged, with the Germans now using the island to nourish Rommel's army in africa, he is not eager to repeat the situation on Malta under far more grave strategic circumstances
London has vacilitated off the Turkish custody of Malta idea as unviable, but hasn't given Auchinlek or Gort express permission to surrender the Island when the food runs out or if the Axis land into the starving garrison; there are no easily swallowed solutions to that crisis for GHQ
Auchinlek receives incredible political pressure and prodding over the lack of security for the Suez canal, and the loss of security in the central mediteranian; which creates grave long term delays to Britain's transfer of forces to operate in the Pacific.
Auchinlek has heavy feuds with Lampson and has banned him from the headquarters Shouting that he had underestimated Farouk as a leader, and the people's devotion to him and his voice; he labels the incident at Abdeen palace back in February as having turned the mood of the Egyptian public and it's Royal Court to be incredibly anti British, and thrust them into Rommel's arms
Lampson shouted back before he was removed the final time that it was Auchinlek, Smith and Ritchie's fault for letting Rommel get into Egypt in the first place when he had been given a fine army to smash the desert fox.
Flurries of cables via open and back channels among the allies of both Auchinlek and Lampson fly back and forth to London, pressing for the recall of the other
Rommel's advanced columns are reported in Western Alexandria suburbs, his furthest forward armored cars and infantry could be in the city center in the next few hours
Auchinlek is deploying spy resources and informants to see what the civilian reaction is to Rommel's arrival, it is hoped they great him with as many fists and bullets as they cast at the British on their way out.
I asked a Royal Navy staffer how long it would take Rommel to restore Alexandria harbor to working order as a supply base for his army, the response was "5 years in peace time conditions, we wrecked place"
I then asked how long would it take for him to get it to 20 percent operating capacity to fill in some of his army's needs, and the response was "5 years in peace time conditions"
There are disturbing reports streaming in to GHQ from other attache's that the Germans have several coiled tank armies ready to pounce in southern Russia, which possibly presents a grave long term threat to Auchinlek's rear security situations
Farouk has been calling on Radio Cairo not all only for all Egyptians, but for all Arabs under British colonial administration to revolt against them; this also presents a possible long term threat if relations between the British and Arabs cannot be put in a more healthy perspective in the future

End Transmission
 
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