There is a lot of speculation right now, as to how events in France during the Battle of France, will effect events in North Africa and the Far East, in the coming years. Right now we haven’t seen the final results of the Battle of France, and there is still the possibility of things turning out much worse. Winston might in a moment of romantic and alcohol induced fantasy, send large numbers of British Forces and equipment, to bolster the French, and lose them all to the Germans. The defence of Dunkirk might collapse and just a few third echelon troops be recovered, while the majority of front line troops get captured. Do I think that is what is going to happen, no, though Winston is going to need watching and delicate handling, to avoid a big mistake. So provide that the British get out of France, with more troops and their personal weapons/equipment in hand, than was the case IOTL. Britain will be in a much better place than it was in the post Battle of France situation IOTL.
Will a BoB happen, yes, the Germans are not in any position to invade Britain, immediately after the conclusion of the Battle of France. They need time to assemble an invasion fleet, and for their Army to rest, train, carry out much needed repairs, and absorb replacements for losses of men and equipment. They also need to have a plan, it’s no good the brass saying, get in a boat and invade England. While this is happening the Luftwaffe, having itself had time to reequip, carry out much needed maintenance and establish forward bases. Has to try to establish control over the local airspace, and reduce the effectiveness of the RAF. It can not establish control over all British airspace, as its aircraft lack the range to do so. So once Uncle Adolf, stopes playing tourist, and trying to get a deal with the British government, having a holiday. He will call for an invasion, but in typical manner fail to establish a single command, responsible for all aspects of the invasion.
The BoB ITTL, will unless there are serious changes in the character of the German commanders, go very much as it did IOTL. A lack of focus, and knowledge, the Germans didn’t have a plan for how to defeat the RAF, just a few ideas, remember this is the first time that they have come up against an airforce that has a developed plan, for the defence of its own airspace. And one that has an integrated air defence system in place, and the aircraft, bases and logistics to back the plan up. Even if the front line bases were put out of action, the RAF could have retired to bases out of range of German fighters. This isn’t a campaign that the Luftwaffe had planned for, their basic plan was to hit hard and fast without warning on day one, then while supporting the Army, keep the opposing airforce off balance. They now have to engage in a prolonged conflict from temporary bases at the end of a long supply line, against a pre warned opponent operating from home bases on fixed supply lines. And one that has a significant technical advantage over the Luftwaffe, one that the Luftwaffe doesn’t know about, or appreciate at this time. By accident the British, despite the underlying theory of air warfare prevent in the inter war years by the RAF, the supremacy of the bomber and an attack on the infrastructure of an opponent. Had thanks to government intervention concentrated on defence against such an attack, during the later years of the nineteen thirties. So the RAF was the only airforce that was prepared for the upcoming conflict and able to deal with it in a systematic way
However until we see the results of the Collapse of France, the results of the the Air Attack against the British mainland, and the measures needed to prevent a German invasion of Britain. It’s way too soon to speculate about the effects on British strategy in North Africa and the Far East. There are at present just too many variables to be able to accurately forecast events, other than to say that there should be more and better tanks in the North Africa area, than there was in OTL. Will the better tanks result in a quick victory over the Italian forces, and will this result in better preparations in the Far East, only time will tell.
RR.