Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

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For those who desire a USA style huge integrated tank factory. What will the UK have to sacrifice (i.e. do without) instead? Labour, tools, skills and materials are finite at the time so anything major is 'either or'. If it were chosen what would be the timescale, allowing for the resources OTL committed to air and naval rearmament? That timescale would have to be such that the BEF goes to war with those tanks. So far we are in 1938 (?) in the thread and Vulcans are still learning to make MkVI Light Tanks before being fit for mediums.

It would take an earlier appreciation that the Army would have to return to the continent in order to free up the necessary funding for the building of a continental force and the acceptance that Light tanks were useless.

In 1938 the Defence budget was IIRC just 4% of the HMGs spending and this included the massive Aircraft / RAF Expansion schemes (including the shadow factory scheme etc) and the rebuilding of the RN (with multiple modern capital ships Crusiers and DDs laid down) - so it would not have taken much extra spending to provide the financial means to expand the army which would include the means for increased and improved AFV production as well as the difficult decision to start some form of conscription.

The problem OTL is that the government did not decide that it was necessary until late 38 (Munich) and did not really start doing anything about it until early 39 - which as it turned out was too late.
 
The other possible option for the armour apart from welding is casting, though I'm not sure if Britain has any more experience with this than with welding.
 
The other possible option for the armour apart from welding is casting, though I'm not sure if Britain has any more experience with this than with welding.
Mayby not armour, but the 19th century industrial revolution was build on castings(locomotive frames, pilars, pipe etc....), so they know and have the places to do castings. They only have to figure out how to adept their expericence to casting armour.
 
In 1938 the Defence budget was IIRC just 4% of the HMGs spending
Defence spending was ~4% of GDP. It was something like 15% of government spending and it was the second biggest expenditure after "Interest payments". Even at that level there were concerns about the impact on the civilian economy, re-armament was starting to cause problems at bottlenecks, not least specialist steels, draftsmen and a few other skilled trades which are relevant here.

More spending could doubtless have been found had there been the political will to spend more on the Army, the civilian economy could take a bit more of a hit and a little bit more inflation wasn't going to kill anyone (with hindsight it's a small price to pay). But to find this will requires a very big change in British politics and strategy, at a minimum you need Chamberlain removed from the Premiership and replaced with someone who really wants to send a large BEF to France, at which point everything is up for grabs.
 

marathag

Banned
For those who desire a USA style huge integrated tank factory. What will the UK have to sacrifice (i.e. do without) instead? Labour, tools, skills and materials are finite at the time so anything major is 'either or'.

Before the War starts, there is a little more slack, as in Jan 1938 there was still 1.8M unemployed. More machine tools, someone would have to dig on that. In the USA, things didn't get tight on that front til bombs fell on Pearl Harbor, and orders ramped up dramatically.
I don't think the UK would do as large a plant as the US did in Detroit. That had three complete assembly lines for 1.24M square feet for the main building.
Going for one assembly line seems more in character

In 1937, UK imported 2M more tons of Iron Ore than 1938, along with a corresponding increase in material
1602505489084.png

1602505745746.png

Coal and Coke Production was also lower in '38 vs 1936 and 1937
So plenty of slack in 1938 for one factory and a couple thousand workers
 
25 February 1938. 10:00hrs. London, England.
25 February 1938. 10:00hrs. London, England.

The letter from the Secretary of State for War (Leslie Hoare-Belisha) was the subject of much discussion. Ever since he took office the Secretary of State it seemed that he had come under the influence of Basil Liddell Hart, some had taken to calling it ‘The Partnership’. It seemed to many in the War Office that Hoare-Belisha was trying to use Liddell Hart’s book “Europe in Arms” as the blue print for the future of the army. There had been in December 1936, while Duff Cooper was Secretary of State for War, an expectation that should war break out on the Continent that the initial response of sending five Regular Divisions would be backed up with twelve Territorial Divisions, two of which would be fully equipped for the job initially. In a written memorandum Mr Cooper had explicitly stated that a future war would not be fought under conditions of ‘limited liability.’ Liddell Hart on the other hand had advocated that Britain should avoid becoming involved in a continental land war and rely on the Royal Air Force as its offensive arm. When Field Marshall Cyril Deverell, as Chief of the Imperial General Staff (CIGS) had expressed opposition to this view, Hoare-Belisha had fired him. Liddell Hart had suggested John Dill and Archibald Wavell as replacements, both of whom had been interviewed, but the decision was made to make Lord Gort, his former military secretary, CIGS.

Nobody in the War Office were under any illusions that as the demands of air defence were becoming insistent and the cost of naval programmes was mounting, the prospects of an army adequate for war in Europe were going to be continually reassessed. With financial limitations paramount, a policy favouring the Air Force at the expense of the Army appeared to be inescapable. In December 1937, the Minister for Coordination of Defence, Sir Thomas Inskip, had come to the conclusion that the policy of continental commitments no longer suited Britain's circumstances and that a number of recent events in the international field justified this change of policy. He gathered that France no longer looked to Britain in the event of war to supply an expeditionary force on the scale hitherto proposed in addition to her all-important cooperation on the sea and in the air. He argued that Germany had guaranteed the inviolability and integrity of Belgian territory and there seemed good reasons for thinking that it would be in Germany's interests to honour that agreement.

Inskip’s chief argument was since resources were limited, rearmament must be concentrated on the vital objective. Most vital of all was, in his opinion, the survival of Great Britain herself from air attack. Next came the preservation of the trade routes and, in the third place, the defence of British territories overseas. The fourth objective, which could only be provided for after the other objectives had been met, was cooperation in the defence of the territories of any allies Britain might have in war. On the basis of this policy 'the continental hypothesis' ranked fourth in order of priority. The primary role of the Regular Army became 'the defence of imperial commitments, including anti-aircraft defence at home'. The role of the Territorial Army was to be adjusted accordingly. Instead of providing reinforcements for the expeditionary force on the Continent, it would merely be called upon to assist in anti-aircraft defence and to perform ‘duties in connection with the maintenance of order and of essential services in this country in time of war’.

Knowing full well the policy of 'limited liability' meant that Hoare-Belisha’s memorandum came as less of a shock. Just as the War Office was formulating the first really ambitious plans of reequipment, it confirmed that in matters of supply all war plans should be based on what might be termed a war of 'limited liability', and from the end of 1937 to the spring of 1939 the equipment of the five divisions was geared down to the level of 'colonial warfare in operations in an Eastern theatre'. An army thus equipped could not be used in Europe except in a defensive role and could not be brought up to full fighting efficiency without a large increase in ammunition, a partial reequipment of tank forces, and other material changes.

Therefore, the Secretary of State for War found it necessary to issue this special warning to the General Staff that potential allies should be left in no doubt as to the possibilities of direct assistance on the part of Great Britain. There-in lay the problem for the War Office. It was bad enough having to warn their liaison officers in friendly countries and allied governments, that Britain’s response to hostilities would come primarily from the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force. The Regular army’s five Divisions would need much longer to be in a position to move to a war footing, and that of the Territorial Army would be even worse.

One of the few saving graces from this state of affairs was that the decision to affirm that one of the five Regular Divisions would be a Mobile Division, rather than a Cavalry Division. Having been formed the previous year, General Alan Brooke, appointed General Officer Commanding, reported The Mobile Division was formed from two Mechanised Cavalry Brigades, the Army Tank Brigade, with attached artillery, engineers and signals. Its paper strength was 620 armoured fighting vehicles but 7⁄8 of these were reconnaissance vehicles and some were simulated by trucks. The tank brigade was to be made up of heavier tanks but only had obsolete medium tanks currently. With the ‘limited liability’ measures in place, although the tanks for the Division were part of the allocated funding, the possibility of an expansion of the Mobile Division was remote at best.
 
All this is of course OTL. If you wanted a POD that would have the army a bit better prepared in 1939, then Inskip and Hoare-Belisha's decision to put the Continental Force as fourth in the list of priorities would have to be overturned. If Cooper Duff's plans in 1937 had continued, the BEF in May 1940 would have been better equipped for the task. However whether they'd have done any better is still unlikely.
Allan
 
Defence spending was ~4% of GDP. It was something like 15% of government spending and it was the second biggest expenditure after "Interest payments". Even at that level there were concerns about the impact on the civilian economy, re-armament was starting to cause problems at bottlenecks, not least specialist steels, draftsmen and a few other skilled trades which are relevant here.

More spending could doubtless have been found had there been the political will to spend more on the Army, the civilian economy could take a bit more of a hit and a little bit more inflation wasn't going to kill anyone (with hindsight it's a small price to pay). But to find this will requires a very big change in British politics and strategy, at a minimum you need Chamberlain removed from the Premiership and replaced with someone who really wants to send a large BEF to France, at which point everything is up for grabs.

Compared to what it would cost a subtle increase would have paid massive dividends - granted it was not for 'answerable democracies' to conduct MEFO bill like fraud on a national scale so as you say it would have been difficult and also as you say there was little appetite for additional spending before there was!
 
All this is of course OTL. If you wanted a POD that would have the army a bit better prepared in 1939, then Inskip and Hoare-Belisha's decision to put the Continental Force as fourth in the list of priorities would have to be overturned. If Cooper Duff's plans in 1937 had continued, the BEF in May 1940 would have been better equipped for the task. However whether they'd have done any better is still unlikely.
Allan

It would have taken the other partners - France (particularly France), Belgium and the Netherlands as well as the other smaller nations to have modernised their militaries and to have massively increased their military expenditure to have changed fortunes in May 1940.

Indeed a BEF 2 times the size on its own is unlikely to have massively changed events
 
It would have taken the other partners - France (particularly France), Belgium and the Netherlands as well as the other smaller nations to have modernised their militaries and to have massively increased their military expenditure to have changed fortunes in May 1940.

Indeed a BEF 2 times the size on its own is unlikely to have massively changed events

Your right about events in France 1940, the thing is all of these improve the BEF/Improve the British threads, discussions etc all make the post 1940 events a lot better.

Double the size of the BEF and you have to equip it. That means increased production of all the army's equipment so that the in war ramp up is less.
 
Your right about events in France 1940, the thing is all of these improve the BEF/Improve the British threads, discussions etc all make the post 1940 events a lot better.

Double the size of the BEF and you have to equip it. That means increased production of all the army's equipment so that the in war ramp up is less.

Yes totally - replacements can be 'replaced' more easily due to the improved ability of said industry to support it and there is less burden on the relatively small number of commonwealth forces engaged in 1940-42
 
Might have changed things a bit - if Belgium/France/Germany all knew UK was serious about quickly sending a competant yet small force rather than not, then it may have changed their behaviour a little. Or not!
 

Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
Might have changed things a bit - if Belgium/France/Germany all knew UK was serious about quickly sending a competant yet small force rather than not, then it may have changed their behaviour a little. Or not!

Could you get the belgiuns to co-operate with the French and British?

If they ley yje Allies to come in a few says before the invasion they either

Get sucked further north and thus get completely cut off

or

Establish a firm northern front and counter attack the sickle cut
 
Its insane that the UK still focused so heavily on the RAF at this time pre-war, I know this is actually lots of funding for radar and the control systems for it but still! Lets hope the Army gets as many modern tanks in service soon!
 
Might have changed things a bit - if Belgium/France/Germany all knew UK was serious about quickly sending a competant yet small force rather than not, then it may have changed their behaviour a little. Or not!
The Trouble is that in 1938 Germany has just 38 Divisions and a few other units and remains massively out numbered by its neighbours. It’s only with the occupation of Czechoslovakia that this ratio starts To change and then with the increasing size of the German Army in 1939 the balance starts to tip and then with the defeat of Poland. Chamberlain might have been waving that bit of paper claiming ‘peace in our time’ what he is actually thinking is ‘oh we are soooo fucked Hitler is a madman’
 
Its insane that the UK still focused so heavily on the RAF at this time pre-war, I know this is actually lots of funding for radar and the control systems for it but still! Lets hope the Army gets as many modern tanks in service soon!



It's even more insane when you look at the capabilities Bomber Command actually had at the time. They were still using Handley Page Heyford's in 1939 for God's sake.


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The Trouble is that in 1938 Germany has just 38 Divisions and a few other units and remains massively out numbered by its neighbours. It’s only with the occupation of Czechoslovakia that this ratio starts To change and then with the increasing size of the German Army in 1939 the balance starts to tip and then with the defeat of Poland. Chamberlain might have been waving that bit of paper claiming ‘peace in our time’ what he is actually thinking is ‘oh we are soooo fucked Hitler is a madman’

Poor old Chamberlain comes in for a bit too much stick IMO. He listened to his Secretrary for Defence and his service chiefs and authorised the biggest rearmament of Britain in it's history while he was PM. He basically quadruples the RAF and doubled the army and the navy. It's 'cause he gave into the dramatics and waved a piece of paper. He was no fool though.
 

perfectgeneral

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Monthly Donor
Poor old Chamberlain comes in for a bit too much stick IMO. He listened to his Secretrary for Defence and his service chiefs and authorised the biggest rearmament of Britain in it's history while he was PM. He basically quadruples the RAF and doubled the army and the navy. It's 'cause he gave into the dramatics and waved a piece of paper. He was no fool though.
John Anderson would have been better to replace him than Churchill. A true neutral for the National government with skill and experience.
 
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