No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

I’d love if you’d continue this TL into the nuclear era or so (basically the stage where conventional war is restrained by international nuclear arsenals), I really am enjoying it.
Thanks for the compliment but I’m not sure that I have enough of whatever it takes to cover the next 2+ centuries. 😢
 
Nader Shah
97. Nader Shah

Once, when Nadir was told that there was no war in paradise, he was reported to have asked: "How can there be any delights there?"“

Nadir Shah is said to have written to the emperor ‘My coming to Cabul and possessing myself thereof was purely out of zeal for Islam and friendship for you...my stay on this side of the Attock is with a view that when those infidels (the Marathas) move towards Hindustan, | may send an army of the victorious Kizzilbash to drive them to the abyss of hell’.”
Satish Chandra​




1739. While the Russian operations on the East had been going on, another power had been on a raise, Nader Shah of Persia.

As a result of the successful wars and long negotiations, Nader forced the Ottoman Empire to return the captured Safavid lands. According to the agreement signed in March 1736, the Ottoman-Sefydian borderles established by the treaty of 1639 were restored. And at the same time, in March 1736, on the Kurultai in Mugan, Nader, who by that time had become a de facto ruler of the country, overthrew the Safavids and proclaimed himself Shah.

Nader Shah was not satisfied only with the restoration of the former borders of the Safavid state and soon embarked on the path of their expansion. Nader Shah Afshar's imperial ambitions are evidenced by an inscription minted on a coin in honor of his accession to the throne: "May the whole world know about the accession of Nader, the future conqueror of the universe." In the winter of 1738, he began a campaign to India, which ended in March 1739 with the capture of the capital of the Mughal Empire Delhi. In general, by 1739, Nader Shah had reached the peak of his power.
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By this time, the Ottomans had been expelled from all former Safavid authorities, Khiva and Bukhara had been conquered, and the Mughal emperor accused of helping the Afghans had been utterly defeated at the battle of Karnal. Nader's forces defeated the army of Muhammad Shah within three hours, paving the way for the Iranian sack of Delhi. The engagement is considered the crowning jewel in Nader's military career as well as a tactical masterpiece.

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13 December saw the Mughal army march out of Delhi to confront the invading forces to the north. The enormity of its size was such that the length of the column was 25 kilometres and the width was 3 kilometres. Muhammad Shah himself joined this army. Due to the cumbersome size of the Mughal army, Muhammad Shah could not take his forces any further than Karnal, approximately 120 kilometres north of Delhi.

In total, Muhammad Shah commanded a war-camp of 300,000 troops including the non-combatants equipped with 3,000 guns along with 2,000 war elephants. Out these the force deployed on the field were numbered at 75,000.[26][27]Despite the large numbers at the Mughal's disposal they suffered from obsolescent war material and antiquated tactical systems. Almost all of the guns in the army (see painting below) were far too large in calibre to be considered field artillery as they were practically impossible to manoeuvre during battle and took such a long time to reload that they would have minimal effect even in cases of correct utilisation.
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In contrast most of Nader's artillery was lighter and much more manoeuvrable than their Mughal counterparts, as well as the zamburaks which provided extra mobile fire power. In contrast to the Mughal army's infantry, all of the 20,000 Persian musketeers (jazyarechi) were uniformed, drilled and homogeneously organised. Although the 50,000 cavalry contingent in the Mughal army was of excellent quality there was nothing to suggest a common and cohesive underlying military structure set out for their deployment and use. The Persian cavalry was composed of two parts. The troops of the state which were trained and drilled via a uniform system, and the auxiliary troops which were recruited into the Imperial army after the conquest of their homeland.
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The Mughals suffered from an absence of a discipline and started an attack in a piecemeal fashion by initiative of one of their commanders while another commander rode with his troops to the rear to repel a diversionary attack on his column’s baggage train.
The Persian centre was eagerly awaiting the arrival of the Mughals with loaded muskets and guns. As they came into musketry range, the screening force of mounted troops fell away to reveal a line of jazayerchi [1] with levelled muskets. A uniform volley was fired into the upcoming enemy. A great testament to the bravery of Sa'adat Khan's men, the Mughals braced and took the punishing fire from the Persian line. They were even able to close with the centre and a general melee ensued bringing great pressure on the Persian centre.

Further to the south, where the Persian left flank was positioned at Kanjpura, Khan Dowran played right into Nader's hands as his pursuit suddenly marched right into a bloody ambush. The sudden appearance of Persian troops from the environs of Kanjpura paralysed the Mughals. The sheer volume of fire from the Jazāyerchi and zamburaks raked incredible destruction on the unfortunate Mughal soldiers caught in the bewildering mayhem Nader had concocted. The Persian right flank began wrapping his forces around the Moghuls’ left flank from the north. Their commander had been captured and surrendered. Many other Mughal soldiers followed suit whilst others broke and fled west.
The Persians engaged in an organised pursuit with Nader halting his forces just out of range of the Mughal battle line drawn up behind the river. Unwilling to engage the Mughals on disadvantageous ground Nader re-established his lines in the valley to the east. The large array of Mughal soldiers deployed behind the river under Nizam-il-Mulk's command could do very little in terms of contributing to the outcome of the battle which had been so disastrous for them. Nader later sent troops around the periphery of the Mughal encampment to form a blockade by cutting the logistical lines leading into Muhammad Shah's camp. This, together with the news about capture and death of the leaders and massive losses, caused a collapse in the morale of the Mughal army. The loss of hope led to mutiny in some cases and groups of soldiers began plundering the camp. 26 February saw the Mughal Emperor travel to meet with his Persian counterpart amongst much pomp and circumstance. Nader paid Muhammad Shah the respect worthy of an Emperor and conversed with him in Turkic. After the conclusion of the negotiations the Mughal party returned to their encampment west of Alimardan river.
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In an act of mercy, Nader allowed the Mughal soldiers still in their camp to leave with their mounts and livestock, and he also gave an advance payment to all of his own soldiers in addition to the Persian camp followers.
Nader entered Delhi with Mohammed Shah as his vassal on 20 March 1739. The person of the Shah was accompanied by 20,000 Savaran-e Saltanati (royal guard), and 100 war elephants mounted by his Jazāyerchi. As the conqueror of Delhi entered, the city's fortification fired their guns in salute. The Persians received a sumptuous welcome in Muhammad Shah's palace.
Rumours began spreading amongst the populace of Delhi that a gratuitous levy was imminent. There were also tales of Muhammad Shah seizing Nader and or having him killed one way or another. The rumors triggered an uprising, which started with some Persian soldiers being killed by the mob. In a retaliation Nader Shah ordered mass executions and sack of the city.

On sack of Delhi:
Afterwards Nadir Shah himself, with the Emperor of Hindustan, entered the fort of Delhi. It is said that he appointed a place on one side in the fort for the residence of Muhammad Shah and his dependents, and on the other side he chose the Diwan-i Khas, or, as some say, the Garden of Hayat Bakhsh, for his own accommodation. He sent to the Emperor of Hindustan, as to a prisoner, some food and wine from his own table. One Friday his own name was read in the khutba, but on the next he ordered Muhammad Shah's name to be read. It is related that one day a rumour spread in the city that Nadir Shah had been slain in the fort. This produced a general confusion, and the people of the city destroyed five thousand1 men of his camp. On hearing of this, Nadir Shah came of the fort, sat in the golden masjid which was built by Rashanu-d daula, and gave orders for a general massacre. For nine hours an indiscriminate slaughter of all and of every degree was committed. It is said that the number of those who were slain amounted to one hundred thousand. The losses and calamities of the people of Delhi were exceedingly great….
After this violence and cruelty, Nadir Shah collected immense riches, which he began to send to his country laden on elephants and camels….

All the regal jewels and property and the contents of the treasury were seized by the Persian conqueror in the citadel. He thus became possessed of treasure to the amount of sixty lacs of rupees and several thousand ashrafis... plate of gold to the value of one kror of rupees, and the jewels, many of which were unrivalled in beauty by any in the world, were valued at about fifty krors. The peacock throne alone, constructed at great pains in the reign of Shah Jahan, had cost one kror of rupees. Elephants, horses, and precious stuffs, whatever pleased .the conqueror’s eye, more indeed than can be enumerated, became his spoil. In short, the accumulated wealth of 348 years changed masters in a moment.

In his campaign of India Nader killed some 200,000 people and returned with a huge quantity of booty and a large number of slaves, including a few thousand beautiful girls.”


The trophies included the famous Peacock throne, and the Koh-i-Noor ("Mountain of Light", 105.6 carats) and Darya-ye Noor ("Sea of Light", 182 carats) diamonds. Sum total of the loot was roughly the equivalent to £90 million sterling at the time, or £8.2 billion sterling in the early 21st century.
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After the Mughals had been deal with, in the fall of 1739 Nader sent the impressive embassies to the Ottoman and Russia empires to inform about his conquest of India.

He wanted to demonstrate his power to Russia and thus prevent potential invasions of the South Caucasus from the north. Nader Shah's instructions to ambassadors included an order to get the ship masters to equip and develop their own shipbuilding and navigation in the Caspian Sea. Initial size of the embassy was 16,000 people with 20 cannons. At the border it was stooped by the governor of Astrakhan and, after negotiations, its size had been scaled down to something less similar to the invasion army: the final size was “only” 2,000 people and 14 elephants. Its baggage required 800 carts.
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In July 1740 the embassy reached Moscow:
“At Danilov's monastery, they were met by troops, clerical servants, equestrian Moscow merchants and a crowded choir of trumpeters. The procession moved in this order: A grenadier team was ahead of the procession. The merchants were riding on a horseback followed by officials and ceremonial carriages. Company of the Guards of the Semenovsky Regiment. Peoples of General Apraksin [2]. Elephants. Ambassadorial music. Embassy horses, Ambassadorial bailiffs. The real state councilor Prince Golitsyn, who was assigned to the Ambassador. Ambassador Hussein Khan himself. Afshar banner with assistants and Afshar military detachment. All Persians numbered 2,128 people and as soon as the ambassador arrived at his apartment, the Moscow Commander-in-Chief immediately came to visit him.” [3]
Procession for the official reception was even more pompous:
“Horse Guard. 14 elephants of 2 in a row. Afshar music. Ambassadorial carriage. Imperial stables horses with unter-stalmaster and bereitors. Generals, staff- and ober-officers. Princes Dolgoruky and Shakhovskoy. Count Saltykov and Hussein Khan in a court carriage. They had grooms, footmen, gaiduks and speedwalkers. At the end of the procession, the Afshar banner was carried.” [3]

At the end of the ambassador's speech, the solemn presentation of Shah's gifts began. "Anna Leopoldovna, the Emperor, Empress and Elizabeth Petrovna were presented with pieces of the richest brocade, diamond belts, gold cups with diamonds, a rich table, 3 feathers for decorateing hats, rings, boxes... At the same time, Hussein Khan announced that the lord of the world indicated the release of all Russian prisoners..." (11) A total of 22 items, 15 rings and 14 elephants were sent. Among the gifts there was a gold ring decorated with rubies, emeralds and a large diamond belonging to Ja Khan Shah (1627-1658), one of the powerful rulers of India from the Mughal dynasty.
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Everything was nice and entertaining but the Russians had been somewhat confused regarding the purpose of this embassy.
  • Some expressed an opinion that initial goal was to capture Astrakhan and, if the Russian borders look vulnerable, to conquer some territory. Hence 20,000 with the artillery.
  • Spelled out official goal was no less confusing. Nader Shah (who was already 60) was asking for the hand of Grand Duchess Elizabeth Petrovna promising to introduce Christianity in his lands. This was rather hard to believe.
As a result, the list of ambassador’s complaints looked as following:
“1) the Shah wanted to establish a family relation with Russia, it was denied (i.e. the hand of Princess Elizabeth Petrovna);
2) at the request of the Shah's Afshar prisoners and also Georgians and Armenians were not returned;
3) Nogais to the Afshar side were not cededed;
4) ship masters for making ships in Persia were not given;
5) Kapellmeisters were not sent to teach music,
6) masters who are making wall wool wallpaper not given,
7) Afshar merchants are not permitted to trade duty-free."

The embassy stayed in Moscow until November 1741 and returned with the friendly letter and the gifts, among which the main place was occupied by wines and various types of vodka. The political results were negative and starting from 1742 there were military conflicts on a border. Nader Shah threatened to conquer Russia, as Kalushkin, a Russian resident in Iran, reported. Due to the deterioration of relations, Alexey sent a reinforced corps to the border under the command of Lieutenant General Tarakanov. Another cause of tension seems to be Russia's reluctance to have another strong Muslim state next door, along with the Ottoman Empires. In any case, all Russia's subsequent policy in the region was aimed at undermining the power of the Afshar state.
________
[1] Soldiers armed with the heavy Persian muskets.
[2] Major-general Apraksin was embassy’s guide on a route.
[3] From the official reports.
 
Domestic problems
98. Domestic problems

“For the next 50 years this area will be quiet.”
General Skobelev after the sack of Geok Tepe

The Bashkirs. In 1735 - 40 Russian Empire faced a series of the Bashkir uprisings caused by the activities of Orenburg Expedition (later renamed to Orenburg Commission and then Chancellery of Orenburg Gubernia).

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Formally, this was a state institution that was responsible for organizing trade with the peoples of Central and Central Asia and their further accession to Russia. Its first action was the foundation of the fortress of Orenburg (later - Orsk) on the border of Bashkiria and the Kazakh steppes at the confluence of the Ori River with Yaik. In total, the commission founded 53 fortresses and about 40 redoubts and outposts. It was created in 1734 on proposal of the Ober-Secretary of the Senate, Kirilov, who had a very vague (if any) idea regarding the regional specifics and was envisioning the whole enterprise as just a tool for the further penetration into the Central Asia.
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Kirilov's plan, drawn up speculatively, on the basis of some theories, in fact was not so easy to implement. In a reality one had not to dream of arranging a flotilla on the Aral Sea, not to think about equipping trade caravans from Orenburg through the Kyrgyz steppe into fertile India rich in gold, spices, precious stones and thin fabrics - no, one had to wage a stubborn bloody struggle for every step, for every piece of land.”

The organization of the expedition also led to a change in the policy of the tsarist administration towards the indigenous population. After the mass seizure of the Bashkir “votchina lands” [1] in favor of the state treasury, nobles, officials, officers, soldiers and other settlers by the middle of the XVIII century, the Bashkirs had lost about half of their fiefdoms. In addition, taxes and duties have increased. Tsarist officials established control over the activities of the Muslim clergy, imposed a ban on the construction of mosques and launched a policy of forced Christianization. Local self-government was also limited: the role of the yiyyns [2] decreased and the elected chiefs of the parishes were replaced by foremen appointed by the authorities. Bashkirs were forbidden to present the emperor with the complaint on behalf of all the people [3], buy and sell firearms, engage in blacksmithing and manufacture of weapons outside the borders of cities, freely moving from one area to another, etc.

The Bashkirs learned about the preparation of the Orenburg expedition in 1734 from a letter sent from Moscow by the Bashkir foreman and mullah Tokchura Almyakov, addressed to Kilmyak Nurushev - a prominent biy of the Nogai road. At the end of 1734 and spring 1735, representatives of all 4 roads moved to Kurultai in the Aziev Mosque (now the territory of the Kirov district of Ufa). For fear of depriving their lands and freedom, the Bashkirs made a decision to resist construction of Orenburg.

In late May - early June 1735, the Bashkirs gathered near Ufa under the leadership of Kilmyak Nurushev and Akai Kusyumov sent to I. K Kirilov two representatives demanding the cancellation of the decision to build Orenburg. The messengers were interrogated and tortured, one of them died. The signal to the uprising was the advance of Kirilov's expedition on June 15, 1735 from Ufa to the Or River. The first clashes occurred on July 1-6: 3,000 Bashkirs led by Nurushev attacked the companies of the Vologda regiment following the expedition in order to protect it. In the summer of 1735, the mass movement of the Bashkirs covered the entire European part of Bashkiria. The Bashkir Affairs Commission was established to combat it. Lieutenant General A. Rumyantsev was appointed to Bashkiria at its head and as the chief commander of the armed forces in Bashkiria on August 13, 1735.
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He received 3 regular regiments, 500 Yaik Cossacks, 3,000 Kalmyks. A number of punitive expeditions were conducted against the rebels. Eventually, total number of punitive detachments exceeded 20,000 people and by massive repressions the first wave of the uprising had been crushed.
But the very cruelty of a suppression resulted in the second wave, which started in 1737. The Bashkirs launched series of attack on various Russian fortresses and settlements. The punishing expeditions in the summer-autumn of 1738 had more than 30 villages were ruined and burned, about 900 people were killed. After the region was surrounded by the Russian troops the leaders of the rebels sued for peace and in September 1738 the second uprising was over.
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A new head of the Orenburg Expedition, V.N.Tatischev reported: “.. The two most dangerous - Kazan and Nogai - roads are so ruined that barely half remain, and other - Osinskaya and Siberian roads - although not so much destroyed, but all horses and cattle disappeared, the villages were burned, and without food, many starved to death."

The third uprising started in 1739 and had been caused by intention of the Russian administration to conduct a census. The census was perceived as a means of imposing new taxes, in particular poll taxes, which would mean abolishment of the traditional “yasak” and pretty much elimination of the special social class status. The rebels looked for help from Kazakhs and Dzungars but their appeals were rejected. At the last stage, the struggle between the rebels and "faithful Bashkirs" who fought on the side of Russian troops escalated, the rebels retreated into the Kazakh steppes beyond the Yaik River. The operation to destroy rebels hiding in mountains and forests continued until the end of September 1740 and ended up by a massive and cruel execution of the captured leaders.

In total, during the uprising of 1735-1740, more than 40,000 people were killed, executed or exiled to hard labor (according to V. N. Tatishchev, about 60 thousand) Bashkirs out of approximately 100,000 of the initial population. Some of them fled to the Kalmyk and Kazakh lands. Most of them were captured and became slaves of local feudal lords.

More than 30,000 Bashkirs of the approximately 100,000 living in these lands were killed or exiled. During this uprising, many of the hereditary lands of the Bashkirs were taken away and transferred to the service Mescheryaks.


________________
[1] Bashkirs-votchinniks (or Bashkirs-asaba) had historically established rights to own, dispose of and use their lands. The fiefdom law of the Bashkirs regulated land relations within Bashkir society, between Bashkirs-votchinniks and the state, between Bashkirs-votchinniks and various categories of the immigrant population of the region. The Bashkir community was the collective owner of the land, while each community member formally had equal rights to use communal (domestic, volost) land. The terms of the fiefdom law were yasak, the payment of which the Bashkirs considered a guarantee of their land rights, and military service. Taking into an account that in the XVII-XVIII centuries the number of Bashkirs-votchinniks increased due to the addition of immigrants from the Middle Volga region (mainly yasak Tatars, as well as Mordovians, Chuvash, Maris and Udmurts), the ethnic content of the term "Bashkirs" in the northwestern part of the Southern Urals is gradually being replaced by class meaning: this group represented a formally defined social class within the Russian Empire regardless its ethnic composition. Quite understandably, the members of that class had been unhappy with an open infringement on their rights and confiscation of the lands they legally owned. (sorry for a long-winded explanation)
[2] Traditional people’s assembly (jien) called to solve political and social issues, as well as the body of self-government of the tribe or family.
[3] To be fair, the group complaints were forbidden to all subjects of the Russian Empire by Peter I under a fear of the death sentence.
 
Domestic problems (cont. 1)
99. Domestic problems (cont. 1)

By the efforts of its own rulers the country was brought in such a state that before looting its population would need at least to provide it with the clothes”
History of Ogogondia

The Russians will soon go to the Nile to occupy Egypt. Let's remember that the gates to India are already open.”
William Pitt the Younger

Better protest of the well-fed than a riot of the hungry.”
General observation
1744. Kashgar

Kashgar Khanate also known as Yarkent Khanate (by the name of its capital) existed as an independent state from 1514 till 1705 when it became vassal of the Dzungars. The Khanate was predominantly Uyghur/Turki; some of its most populated cities were Hotan, Yarkent, Kashgar, Yangihissar, Aksu, Uchturpan, Kucha, Karashar, Turpan and Kumul.
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In the first half of the XVI century, handicraft production revived in the country in connection with the development of the mining industry and metallurgy. The centers of mining and metallurgy were the cities of Kashgar, Yarkend, Aksu, Khotan, Bugr. Gold, silver, copper, iron, mercury, ammonia, salt, jade were mined here. The textile industry has become widespread. The perfection of looms was important for the development of this type of industry. The development of productive forces has become one of the main reasons for specialization of production. The Khotan district was famous for the production and processing of jade, carpets, and the sophistication of jewelry was distinguished by the masters of Kashgar and Yarkend.
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The development of handicraft production and agriculture has led to a revival of domestic and foreign trade. To develop trade relations, roads were built and repaired and new bridges were built. Numerous cities and shopping centers have appeared. The development of trade and commodity and monetary relations led to the emergence of large mints, gold, silver and copper dirhams began to be minted. Trade between different regions of the country has intensified, and the volume of foreign trade with neighboring countries has increased. If earlier shopping centers were located in large villages and villages, now, with the development of handicraft production, trade in cities has intensified. Craftsmen, builders, architects, traders, scientists, literary and artists lived in large cities. At that time, the main centers of trade were Kashgar, Yarkend, Khotan, Aksu, Kumul.
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Jesuit Bento de Góis wrote:
Hiarkhan [Yarkend], the capital of the Kaskar kingdom, is a very prominent market, both for a large crowd of traders and for a variety of goods. In this capital, a caravan of Kabul merchants reaches its final point, and a new caravan is being formed to travel to Katai. The command of this caravan is sold by the king, who gives the leaders a kind of royal power over merchants for the duration of the journey. However, it took about twelve months before a new company was formed, because the path is long and dangerous, and the caravan is not formed every year, but only when a large number of people join it and when it becomes known that they will be allowed to enter Katai…. No item is more valuable or more accepted as an investment for this trip than pieces of a certain transparent type of marble called "jusce" (jade) by the Chinese. They take them to Emperor Katai, attracted by high prices, which he considers mandatory for his dignity to give; and such items that the emperor does not believe that they can freely dispose of individuals.”
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Of course, political situation was far from an idyl: there were usual wars, court intrigues, changes of the rulers. The new component had been added in late XVI century when the followers of Sheikh Mahmudi Azam split into two hostile religious groups calling themselves “white mountain” (aktaglyk) and “black mountain” (karataglyk) Sufis. Besides fighting with each other, the leaders of these groups (khojas) had been overthrowing the local rulers putting on the throne their own candidates and creating enough of a turmoil to make khanate an easy prey for its neighbors. In 1680 the khanate was invaded by the Dzungars of Galdan Boshigt (invited by the “whites”). Twice the Khanate had been paying tribute to the Qing, then the Dzungars invaded again, all this with the change of the rulers, revolts of the local feudals, etc.
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Since 1680, the Dzungars ruled the Tarim Depression as overlords, using the Chagataids as puppet rulers for another 16 years. The Dzungars used the hostage treaty to rule the khanate, holding either the sons of rulers, such as Khojas and Khans, or the rulers themselves as hostages in the Ili region. Although the culture and religion of the Uighurs were left alone, the Dzungars exploited them significantly economically.

The Kashgar army, even by the standards of the Middle Ages, was distinguished by exceptional diversity. It included units of Kyrgyz, Kazakhs, Oirats, Tajiks, Kashgarians and Yarkands themselves, as well as militias of numerous nomadic and sedentary tribes that inhabited East Turkestan. However, these troops were not particularly reliable. The most loyal to the Khan's power were units of armored cavalry and the horsemen of khan’s personal guard. Of course, rulers of the cities, religious leaders and the local feudals had their own military forces . Technically, it was lagging well behind the Dzungars and Qing.

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By 1743 the central power had been under control of the “aktaglyk" Khojas led by Burkhan al-Din (who was made a khan) and his brother Khan Khoja. Considering themselves strong enough to get rid of the Russian presence they started an uprising declaring a war for faith and besieged Kucha.
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Intermission. Administratively, Dzungaria (with Kashgar) had been a part of the General-Governorship of Eastern Siberia and Turkestan created in 1743, governor of which was Count A. Rumyantsev (who got a title and promotion into a full general after dealing with Bashkir Uprising). Among count’s subordinates was his own son Peter [1] who had been something of an embarrassment. In 1734 he was appointed to the diplomatic service and enlisted in the Russian Embassy in Berlin [4]. Once abroad, he began to lead a rampant lifestyle, so in 1735 he was recalled for "motovism, laziness and bullyness" and sent to Bashkiria with a rank of a second lieutenant. Here he distinguished himself enough to become a major by 1740. When back in capital he was, again, up to his “merry life” and made himself such a nuisance that the Military Minister, Fieldmarshal Munnich found it prudent to send him, promoted to lieutenant-colonel, to serve under a watchful eye of his father in Turkestan. Neither father nor son had been happy with this arrangement but what could they do? Rumyantsev Jr. had been posted in Illibaliq, on a border between the Senior Juz and Kashgar.

Governor-general planned a three-prong attack on the rebels. One column would advance from Hami toward Turpan and Qocho to met with the second column, the Dzungars coming from the North, and advance toward Yarkent, held by the Russian garrison, while the 3rd column would march to Kashgar (city) from the Senior Juz.

It will take some time to assemble the troops and allied contingents and to have them on a move so lieutenant-colonel Rumyantsev will march immediately to relieve the siege of Kucha with 2 infantry battalions, 2 squadrons dragoons, 300 Kazakhs and 16 guns (taking into an account that the units were routinely understrength, this would amount to approximately 2,000), which was pretty much all immediately available in the area.
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On February 3 1744 Rumyantsev’s column marching along the right bank of the Ili river was attacked by over 5,000 enemy cavalry led by Burhān al-Dīn personally. The Uyghur cavalry had been stopped by the intensive fire and then counter-attacked by the Russian cavalry and Kazakhs and fled. Rumyantsev marched to Kucha unopposed and, after adding part of its garrison to his troops, kept pushing deeper into the country. Burhān al-Dīn tried to attack him once more on Tarim river and his army of 10,000 suffered a crushing defeat and pretty much disintegrated. Rumyantsev felt himself free to march toward Yarkent with his column being joined by the loyalist beks and by those who found it prudent to change the sides before it is too late.
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The last attempt of Burhān al-Dīn to stop the enemy failed and he fled with Khan Khoja and their small army of supporters to Badakhshan where the local Sultan captured and imprisoned them.

By the time the main columns entered Kashgar territory, they were left with a task of mopping up the disjoined rebels bands.

The hero of the mini-war, after being privately reprimanded by his father for conducting excessively risky operation and getting an acknowledgement that finally he ceased to be a shame if the family, had been sent to Moscow with a report about the victory. Taking into an account that as a governor-general Rumyantsev Sr. was reporting directly to the emperor, the messenger got an audience and was immediately promoted to major-general and awarded St.George 3rd class.

Kashgar was placed under a direct control of the Russian administration (with the continued payment of the tribute to Dzungars). Territory was divided into 6 regions (uezds) controlled by the Russian officials subordinated to the governor-general. The loyal beks got their territories as the hereditary lands but had been controlled by the Russian officials (and the garrisons placed in the cities).





______________
[1] IITL he was born in 1720, 5 years ahead of the OTL.
[4] In OTL he really was sent to Berlin when he was 14.
 
“1) the Shah wanted to establish a family relation with Russia, it was denied (i.e. the hand of Princess Elizabeth Petrovna);
Given that TTL Elisabeth is not a bastard of any sort, and is born in perfectly legit marriage to highborn mother, unwillingness of Alexei to see his only existing sibling in a Muslim marriage is realistic. IIRC Peter and Maria Cantemir had no other surviving children, so Elisabeth is the only Alexei's sibling TTL.
 
Given that TTL Elisabeth is not a bastard of any sort, and is born in perfectly legit marriage to highborn mother, unwillingness of Alexei to see his only existing sibling in a Muslim marriage is realistic. IIRC Peter and Maria Cantemir had no other surviving children, so Elisabeth is the only Alexei's sibling TTL.
In OTL this proposal was rejected as well.
 
In OTL this proposal was rejected as well.
I know. I did AHC of what if it was accepted (as a sub-PoD of Son of Tsarevna Praskovia Ioannovna survives and is raised as Anna Ioannovna's heir instead of Anna Leopoldovna), as an alternative of life imprisonment for treason for Elisabeth (though it did bite TTL Ivan VI in the ass later on).
 
The bad year
100. The bad year

“I am ready to meet my Maker.  Whether my Maker is prepared for the great ordeal of meeting me is another matter.
Epitaph to Winston Churchill written by himself
“I knew if I waited around long enough something like this would happen.”
G. B. Shaw
Corruption is a chronic and incurable disease of any state apparatus of all time and of all peoples”
Unknown author​


[With the Russian domestic affairs I neglected the foreign affairs so we are getting back to 1740 (for a while)]

Year 1740 was considered a bad year because during this year three very important deaths happened [1]:
  • 31 May - Frederich William I of Prussia died to be succeeded by his son Frederick II​
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  • July 1 - Charles XII of Sweden died to be succeeded by his son Charles XIII Frederick​
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  • October 20 - Emperor Charles VI died to be succeeded … well, there was a BIG Problem. He wanted to be succeeded in his Hapsburg capacity (as in “ownership of the Hapsburg hereditary lands”) by his daughter Maria-Theresa but there were competing claim from Bavaria (backed by France, especially in the imperial claim) and Saxony (just as a matter of principle). And this left an issue of the imperial crown widely open.​
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The first surprise came from Frederick of Prussia who decided to end his father’s policy of a neutrality and invaded Austrian Silesia trying to do so before Augustus of Saxony and Poland could pre-empt him (which hardly could happen anyway, taking into an account a sorry state of the Saxon army). His Russian and Swedish relatives had been informed post factum.

With a population of 16 million, Austria had an authorised standing force of 157,000, although financial restraints meant its true size was considerably less than that in 1740. Since they had a much greater area to defend, their army with its “cordon strategy” was more of "a sieve" than a shield against foreign invasion. In contrast, the Prussian army of 80,000 was better trained and led than its opponents.

In early December 1740, the Prussian army assembled along the Oder river and on 16 December, invaded Silesia without a formal declaration of war. Austrian military resources were concentrated in Hungary and Italy, and they had fewer than 3,000 troops in Silesia, although this was increased to 7,000 shortly before the invasion. They held onto the fortresses of Glogau, Breslau, and Brieg, but abandoned the rest of the province and withdrew into Moravia, and both sides went into winter quarters. This campaign gave Prussia control of most of the richest province in the Habsburg Empire, containing a population of over one million, the commercial centre of Breslau, along with mining, weaving and dyeing industries. However, Frederick underestimated Maria Theresa's determination to reverse her loss, while the retention of Austrian fortresses in Southern Silesia meant a quick victory could not be achieved.

With the hostilities starting without a warning it was necessary for Sweden and Russia to figure out their own attitude to this new war. After a short diplomatic exchange it was found that both are of opinion that, unless something totally unexpected happens, the neutrality is the best policy and should be abandoned only if Frederick of Prussia suffers a severe defeat which endangers existence of his state.

Of course, Charles XII could consider excessive strengthening of Prussia as a potential danger to the Swedish possessions in Germany and both Russia and Sweden could consider such a strengthening as a potential danger to their interests in the PLC. OTOH, even Charles may have serious doubts about siding with the Catholic Hapsburgs against a friendly Protestant Prussia (and his own son-in-law).

Anyway, as far as the PLC was involved, its security was now something of the legacy from the previous generation, glorious but gone. Lesser in the Swedish and more in the Russian case this anarchic state was becoming a nuisance rather than an asset so perhaps the whole schema would need to be reviewed in a not too remote future.

Sweden. Young Charles Frederick of Sweden was not inclined to get into the fight in which Sweden hardly could gain anything of a substance. The continental quarrel had little or nothing to do with the interests of the Baltic League (of which Prussia was, of course, a member). Swedish economy was booming and a coming war probably meant the greater demand for the Swedish iron, tar and other exports. He was quite happy to concentrate on finishing the royal palace, support of the newly-created Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien)
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and continued construction of the Sweden's Blue Ribbon (Sveriges Blå Band) started when his father built the Göta Canal. With the exception of a short period of the War of Polish Succession, in which Swedish participation was minimal, he lived in the peaceful state and the stories about the great military exploits of his father and Swedish army sounded almost as a legend. To him and to most of the nation Charles was more familiar as a “father king” figure traveling incognito to check how the state officials are working, talking to the simple folks, etc. The veterans would be telling the stories about a hero king personally leading the charges in the old battles won far away (or not too far away in the case of Scania) and everybody was proud of the old glory but prosperity was here and now.

Of course, the army and navy had to be kept in a proper shape to live, if need arises, up to their glorious reputation but this specific war did not look as such a case. The Swedish officers were permitted to join whatever side they wanted as the volunteers but Sweden was going to stay neutral, at least for now.


Russia. Both economic and political considerations were pretty much the same but in Moscow situation was slightly different because the “Young court” was openly and loudly pro-Prussian, which was quite understandable taking into an account that the Grand Duchess was sister of the King of Prussia. However, getting into a major European war for no obvious reason when the troops could be needed in Asia at any moment did not look as a smart idea. Nonetheless, the French ambassador on one side and Austrian and British ambassadors on another had been quite active trying to convince Russia to commit its troops on their corresponding sides. Fortunately, Alexey had as his Foreign Minister just a right man for the job.
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Count Alexey Petrovich Bestuzhev-Ryumin [1] was a very intelligent and well-educated man who served in the Netherlands, Hanover, Britain and Denmark. By personal inclination he was rather pro-British and anti-French which meant that in this specific case he would also be pro-Austrian and anti-Prussian. But. as had been said, he was very intelligent and understood that such a policy, if he would try to insist on it, would make him extremely unpopular with the Young Court and most probably with the imperial court as well: so far, Alexey made it quite clear that he wants Russia to remain neutral and to have free hands in the case of a crisis in Asia. However, just in case, neither side should be openly discouraged either, just in case. The ways to achieve this were left to Bestuzev’s discretion. Domestically, Bestuzev should keep the Young Court off the emperor’s back because their enthusiasm became quite annoying.

Now, there was one more (or two?) important thing to know about Bestuzev: he managed to maintain simultaneously reputation(s) of a man of the strong principles and of the most corrupt Russian minister. How? Actually, this was quite simple. He never promised something that he could not deliver and was taking the (huge) bribes only for the things that he promised.


Bribe was not considered to be something criminal (except for the cases when it was expedient to think otherwise), especially if it was not for something not detrimental to the interests of the state so now Bestuzev hit a jackpot. Of course, not too much could be expected from the Prussian ambassador (as a relative, the Young Fritz was expecting to get benefits either for free or for peanuts) but Austria and especially France and Britain were a different story and, after getting Alexey’s blessing, Bestuzev got to work.

The British Ambassador was assured that His Imperial Majesty is rather inclined to send military help to the King of Prussia. Besides the fact that he is a family member, Prussia did recognize the Russian imperial status while neither Britain nor the Hapsburgs did, which His Imperial Majesty Alexey I considers quite offensive, especially in a view of the traditional close trade relations with Britain. He, Bestuzev, is not going to promise the Russian military intervention on behalf of Maria-Theresa but can try to persuade his master to remain neutral if the title issue is promptly and satisfactory addressed.

Communication with the French ambassador was along the same lines (the imperial title was not recognized by France as well) but in the opposite direction (old relations with Britain, British and Austrian promise to address the title issue, French hostile intrigues in the Ottoman Empire). However, nothing is being lost, yet, and His Majesty may be persuaded not to intervene against brother of his daughter-in-law.

There was no need to mention a personal reward for the services granted, it was going by default and Bestuzev did quite well. Even the Young Fritz presented him with a team of the 6 beautiful carriage horses from his own stud farm.

The Cesarevich and his wife Bestuzev discretely informed that the Emperor was quite upset with the fact that Frederick did not inform him about his plans and and that any open interference on his behalf may invoke the Emperor’s wrath. However, he is going to try to calm his down and convince to forget the insult. In few days the young couple was informed that the Emperor promised not to act against the King of Prussia but in any case they will be well-advised to exercise some restrain in their behavior.

Everybody was happy and Bestuzev’s reputation as a powerful and honest statesman was confirmed. 😉

As far as the war was involved, Frederick proved to be quite quite capable of dealing with the opponents on his own.

_________________
[1] It can be argued in each specific case if a royal death should be considered a good or bad thing but in this case the result was a major European war with the loss of few hundred thousands lives and a serious hit to the existing “balance of power”.
[2] Actually, portrait below is of Prince Frederick Adolf, Duke of Östergötland but where am I supposed to get a portrait of a non-existent monarch? 😢
[1] His enemies spread the rumor that initially the family founder was not «Бестужев» but «Бестыжев» (“Shameless”). Hard to say one way or another because the family origins are rather murky.
 
A new course?
d101. A new course?
Allies are enemies who have a common enemy”
Unknown author
Anyone who has allies is no longer completely independent”
Truman
The great powers do not sacrifice themselves for the sake of their allies.”
Kissinger
The Eurasian ideal is simple and constructive: relations between peoples should be built not on wars and strands, but on peace and harmony.”
Lev Gumilev

1740 - 1748. The ongoing war of the Austrian Succession created a serious problem for the Baltic League. While activities of the new King of Prussia did not (so far) impact the economic foundation of the League, the very fact that the League members were not informed beforehand thus preventing development of a common political strategy was inconvenient, to put it mildly. Frederick of Prussia clearly not giving a damn about his Baltic allies and a complicated system of the “Baltic marriages” promoted by the founders of the League proved to be pretty much worthless and even counter-productive because it was restricting Swedish and Russian freedom of a political orientation.

Decision to remain neutral was suitable for the current situation but would it always be applicable? There was a realistic chance for Sweden and Russia to be dragged into the future conflicts contrary to their interests, just due to the pressures within the ruling families and if Charles XIII [1] could ignore his far away sister, Queen of Prussia, in Moscow the Grand Duchess had a much greater influence on her husband. On a bright side, the Grand Duchess Sophia was quite intelligent woman (which was more than Alexey could say about his own son 😉) so the best policy seemingly was to convince her that as a wife of the heir to the throne she has to put interests of the Russian Empire ahead of those of Prussia.
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To Alexey’s pleasant surprise this approach worked. Grand Duchess Sophia visibly appreciated being taken seriously and getting informed about the Russian domestic and foreign affairs while her husband was considered these issues more or less along the lines of the necessary but rather boring duties. Gradually, her unconditional love of her brother evolved into a more measured approach in which it was balanced by the interests of her adopted motherland and her acting as Frederick’s eyes and ears at the Russian court took a much more restricted form dwindling to something slightly above an ordinary social chat. To at least some degree this had a cooling effect upon Grand Duke Peter who, with his main interests being in hunting, dancing and drinking, tended to adopt the political views of his wife.

But, a purely domestic aspect of a problem aside, Alexey and his government clearly faced a need to define the Russian foreign policies within a clearly changing framework of the European politics. The options were numerous.

  1. Concentrate on the affairs in Asia limiting European involvements to the existing trade and maintenance of the existing defensive agreements with Sweden, Denmark, Mecklenburg and Gottorp. This sounded nice, as a general approach, but was leaving some questions. For example, what if Prussia attacks the allied possessions in Germany? Frederick was ambitious and seemingly unpredictable and if too much of the Russian military resources are being shifted to the East, who knows what may come to his mind. It also was leaving open a question regarding the Russian naval policies on the Baltic and Black Sea/Med: How strong should be the Russian navy, should it be venturing outside these seas, etc.​
  2. Use the existing problems with the PLC for getting the rest of Ukraine. To simplify this task, make a full-scale military alliance with Prussia helping Frederick to weaken Austria to such a degree that it ceases to be a serious obstacle and cut the Ukrainian slice of a pie allowing Prussia and Sweden to get their own pieces as well (this part was a little bit vague in the Swedish part; should it be a piece of Lithuania adjacent to Curland or some land swap with Prussia). Minimizing the PLC-related nuisances would be good but there was a clear possibility of Frederick dragging Russia into his less other adventures making it a hostage of his foreign policies.​
  3. Try to preserve status quo in the Baltic region by siding with Austria to prevent further Prussian expansion. Austria as a military ally sounded as a very unattractive option because such an alliance could easily led to the war with the Ottomans (which Russia did not want) and, judging by the Austrian performance in the ongoing war, as an ally it could be a burden.​
As the wild card in all these scenarios were relations with Britain, the main customer of the Russian goods. It was more or less assumed that the trade should continue under any scenario but who could predict the British politics?

Another wild card was France. Of course, it was far away and not too important as a trade partner but its influence in Constantinople can’t be ignored and there always was some kind of a revenge party at the Sultan’s court. So how should relations with France be balanced within each of these schemas?

Each of these options had its own adherents and opponents. Alexey was somewhat in a favor of the “Asiatic” option because until the Russian grasp at least on Dzungaria (and Kashgar) is solidified beyond a reasonable challenge, any border conflict in the region could led to a major war for which Russia needed to provide a strong logistic foundation far away from its European territories. However, just ignoring events in Europe also was not a plausible option because Russia may end up lagging behind the main European powers militarily and if the Baltic League crumbles, how hard would this impact the Russian economy? Buildup in Siberia was not cheap, after all.

Pro-Prussian scenario had its merits if the Russian involvement could be limited to getting a profitable piece of the PLC territory after which the dear Prussian relative could be left to his own devices. Obviously, the written treaties regarding the mutual military support would mean little for either side (in practical terms, Prussia may ask for the Russian support but other way around sounded unrealistic) but still this would need a serious thinking and precise definitions. Well, with the Young Fritz openly preaching and demonstrating an extreme cynicism (or practicality) in his actions, perhaps a simple “we are truly sorry” would work just fine.

Pro-Austrian “party” was formally led by Bestuzev who was actually much more pro-British (as long as the Brits kept bribing him for preventing Russia from siding with Prussia and France) than he was pro-Austrian and in a reality was just producing a potentially useful diplomatic option, just in case. And in his encounters with the Young court he always was quite sympathetic to Prussia.

As a result, the discussions regarding a future course had been going on and so was the diplomatic exchange with the Baltic allies. With Frederick of Prussia the relations remained visibly sincere but noncommittal.

_____________
[1] BTW, did we already married him to somebody? 🤭
 
Charles XIII [1]
No, no marriage proposals.
If we're going to do cousin marriages, there is a Danish cousin who is born circa 1724-1725 (was thinking about two successful pregnancies for Praskovia in 1724-1727 interval, a boy and a girl).

As as alternative, there's a version of Anna Leopoldovna available from Mecklenburg court, if we're going to be Baltic Habsburgs and go for cousin marriages.
 
Well that are some big forgein policy questions for Russia as European landscape changes.

Personally the best option would be some kind of splendid isolation in Europe Russian style.

Keep Ottoman policy as it is , maintain close relationship with Sweden as most reliable ally in Baltic league, Denmark/Mecklenburg for the sake of safety in Baltic, remain on good terms with Prussia as there aren't many big clashes in interest .

Otherwise regarding the PLC, it's clear that it's on its way out as keeping it risks more headaches than it's worth. I would propose reproachment with Austria in this case, they arent the enemies and trying to push them out only risks siding overly with Prussia. So including Austria in any future partition to balance Prussia is the best option, especially if it can be used for Russia to get a lion share.
 
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No, no marriage proposals.
If we're going to do cousin marriages, there is a Danish cousin who is born circa 1724-1725 (was thinking about two successful pregnancies for Praskovia in 1724-1727 interval, a boy and a girl).

As as alternative, there's a version of Anna Leopoldovna available from Mecklenburg court, if we're going to be Baltic Habsburgs and go for cousin marriages.
Look where these family marriages got us with Prussia: a lot of trouble and no gain whatsoever. 😢

How about somebody obscure to the irrelevance and with no siblings? OTOH, this did not work too well for Peter III.
 
How about somebody obscure to the irrelevance and with no siblings? OTOH, this did not work too well for Peter III.
A good candidate would be Maria Amalia of Hesse-Kassel. Her brother married to British princess, but an in-law of an in-law is not a meaningful relation, and they de-facto divorced in 1747. She is also somebody who died early (1744) IOTL, so for TTL you can pretty much invent the personality from scratch.
And due to her family ambitions she's a good party for King of Sweden.
 
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Well that are some big forgein policy questions for Russia as European landscape changes.

Personally the best option would be some kind of splendid isolation in Europe Russian style.

This seems to be an attractive option but how much of an isolation would be practical?

Russian economy os still dependent upon the exports and it needs to be up to date on many things from technology to the military tactics not to end up as another Persia. Then, there is a PLC issue which is quite “international” and probably to one degree or another (at least on a level of friendly neutrality) Russia would have to side with either Austria or Prussia and there can be arguments for each of these options.

Of course, “while the Russian Emperor is fishing, Europe can wait” but not forever. 😉
Keep Ottoman policy as it is , maintain close relationship with Sweden as most reliable ally in Baltic league, Denmark/Mecklenburg for the sake of safety in Baltic, remain on good terms with Prussia as there aren't many big clashes in interest .

Sounds prudent even if this is not “isolationism”. Perhaps “regionalism”? 😉
Otherwise regarding the PLC, it's clear that it's on its way out as keeping it risks more headaches than it's worth. I would propose reproachment with Austria in this case, they arent the enemies and trying to push them out only risks siding overly with Prussia. So including Austria in any future partition to balance Prussia is the best option, especially if it can be used for Russia to get a lion share.
I see your point but due to a pure geography Austria would be doomed to get the best part of Ukraine leaving Russia with worthless Belorussia. Probably, without the idiotic policies of CII Poland proper can survive so Austria ends up as a greatest winner. I was thinking about a possibility of Russia-Prussia-Sweden split: Danzig and Warmia to Prussia, chunk of Lithuania to Sweden and remains of Ukraine (with or without Belorussia, probably with - Orthodox issue) to Russia. Well, Austria may grab some small piece as well but no 1st Partition scenario where it got the best part for nothing.

Something along these lines. What do you think?
 
This seems to be an attractive option but how much of an isolation would be practical?

Russian economy os still dependent upon the exports and it needs to be up to date on many things from technology to the military tactics not to end up as another Persia. Then, there is a PLC issue which is quite “international” and probably to one degree or another (at least on a level of friendly neutrality) Russia would have to side with either Austria or Prussia and there can be arguments for each of these options.

Of course, “while the Russian Emperor is fishing, Europe can wait” but not forever. 😉


Sounds prudent even if this is not “isolationism”. Perhaps “regionalism”? 😉

I see your point but due to a pure geography Austria would be doomed to get the best part of Ukraine leaving Russia with worthless Belorussia. Probably, without the idiotic policies of CII Poland proper can survive so Austria ends up as a greatest winner. I was thinking about a possibility of Russia-Prussia-Sweden split: Danzig and Warmia to Prussia, chunk of Lithuania to Sweden and remains of Ukraine (with or without Belorussia, probably with - Orthodox issue) to Russia. Well, Austria may grab some small piece as well but no 1st Partition scenario where it got the best part for nothing.

Something along these lines. What do you think?
I like this in general, but what about Danzig to Sweden instead? Prussia has shown itself to be an unreliable actor, I think strengthening Sweden more vs strengthening Prussia makes sense for a number of reasons.
 
Sounds prudent even if this is not “isolationism”. Perhaps “regionalism”? 😉

That's the spirit of it, keep the relationship with strategically important and reliable partners for Russian security and economy (Baltic league - Prussia, but still friendly ), keep the Ottoman's proped up if needed to protect southern trade interests ( open Straits), but be willing to allow Austria limited expansion (basically current policy).

And keep the balance between regional powers to avoid any of them achieving dominant position ( Austria + Prussia) .

I was thinking about a possibility of Russia-Prussia-Sweden split: Danzig and Warmia to Prussia, chunk of Lithuania to Sweden and remains of Ukraine (with or without Belorussia, probably with - Orthodox issue) to Russia. Well, Austria may grab some small piece as well but no 1st Partition scenario where it got the best part for nothing.

Personally i would go with Sweden getting Danzig , they already possess nearby Elbig, it's better to strengthen reliable ally opposed to Prussia getting best share, especially since they proved to be lose canon.

So i would go first/second Partition territories for Prussia (- Danzig that would go to Sweden as it feels like something Sweden would fight for in this situation) + territories lost in BFW to PLC.

Otherwise I'm okay with everything else .
 
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That's the spirit of it, keep the relationship with strategically important and reliable partners for Russian security and economy (Baltic league - Prussia, but still friendly ), keep the Ottoman's proped up if needed to protect southern trade interests ( open Straits), but be willing to allow Austria limited expansion (basically current policy).

And keep the balance between regional powers to avoid any of them achieving dominant position ( Austria + Prussia) .



Personally i would go with Sweden getting Danzig , they already possess nearby Elbig, it's better to strengthen reliable ally opposed to Prussia getting best share, especially since they proved to be lose canon.

So i would go first/second Partition territories for Prussia (- Danzig that would go to Sweden as it feels like something Sweden would fight for in this situation) + territories lost in BFW to PLC.

Otherwise I'm okay with everything else .
As an answer to you and @redfire regarding Danzig. This was my first inclination but OTOH this would almost definitely cause a problem with Fritz who wanted the Royal Prussia both as a corridor to the East Prussia and due to its economic value. As a side note, in OTL in his letters exchange with CII he wrote something along the lines that “this is a poor land but I need it” to get land access to East Prussia and the “Great” CII swallowed this BS without a murmur. “Poor land” with one of the biggest Baltic ports, yeah sure.

But giving Fritz everything he wants just because he wants it would be creating a very dangerous precedent because the next thing he would want Memel back (at this time its economy is booming), then a piece of the Swedish Pomerania, etc.

OTOH for Sweden this would be one more isolated enclave with the Prussian territories on its borders.

So, the open question who (including Austria) can get what without (a) getting into a major war (or with a war) and (b) leaving some meaningful peace of the PLC.

Taking into an account that a VIP in Asia is going to die on OTL schedule and I have to attend to the consequences, there is tome for figuring out the Polish issue and ideas on this account are gladly accepted (anyway, I’ll have to go back to refresh my memory on what Russia got by the LNW not to give it the same areas twice 😂).
 
Well here is my idea painted on the map regarding the partition, map is not correct due to PLC being smaller in this TL but these are ideas on who gets what.

Green is Russia, Orange is Sweden and Pink is what is left of PLC.

drawing-1.svg
 
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Could Prussia be bought off with Saxony? If not, then Sweden may better serve itself letting them have Danzig so as not to end up with another exclave to defend. How about:

Russia completes gathering the Russian lands (Belarus and the rest of the Ukraine)
Sweden gets Lithuania
Prussia gets Danzig and land-bridge, unless Sweden/Austria want to buy them off by ending the Wettins outright
Austria probably depends on the status of Silesia; if they still have it, then maybe they take what is left in the difference and Poland gets absorbed into the Habsburg collection? Seems like puppets are no longer sufficient given the terminal braindeath of the Sejmiks.
 
Could Prussia be bought off with Saxony? If not, then Sweden may better serve itself letting them have Danzig so as not to end up with another exclave to defend. How about:

Russia completes gathering the Russian lands (Belarus and the rest of the Ukraine)
Sweden gets Lithuania
Prussia gets Danzig and land-bridge, unless Sweden/Austria want to buy them off by ending the Wettins outright
Austria probably depends on the status of Silesia; if they still have it, then maybe they take what is left in the difference and Poland gets absorbed into the Habsburg collection? Seems like puppets are no longer sufficient given the terminal braindeath of the Sejmiks.
Imo (and with the benefit of hindsight), it is not in Russia’s interest to give Prussia Danzig. Long-term an aggressive and expansionary German state, even if Germany is not united, is a lot scarier than Sweden purely due to demographics. Prussia has a lot more room to grow in terms of strength than Sweden. Another Baltic exclave for Sweden only ties them even more to the Baltic League/Russian alliance. Trying to placate Prussia doesn’t make sense when they have already shown themselves to be unpredictable and land hungry. Better to keep Prussia a bit weaker and more biddable rather than feeding them land hoping they will be a good ally. Whereas Sweden is at this point basically a satiated power. They might grab a bit more Baltic coastline but they already have a lot of land to hold.
 
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