454a. Europe can wait (cont)
All Russian soy-related exports were now going from Harbin by the Usurian RR to Vladivostok with Britain getting, as a result, a bigger slice of the export’s share. Well, of course, this was just business, nothing personal, but a continued sharp increase of the Japanese and Manchukuo’s forces was a completely different story causing quite understandable concerns. On the map below the red line - Russian border, purple - Mongolian, the rest are major railroads (Usurian RR - black).
On one hand, so-called “Sungari Triangle” was squeezed between the Northern and Southern parts of Manchukuo, which was making it vulnerable to attacks from the North and South. OTOH, the Northern Manchuria was squeezed between the Triangle on the East, Russian Far East on the North and Mongolia on the West and a coordinated attack from the East and West could easily cut off the South and Central Manchurian RRs (blue and green on the map) isolating North from the South and allowing (the forces permitting) advance southward along that RR to Mukden and even Dairen. But then Mongolia was also vulnerable to the Japanese attack (the forces permitting) from their Kwantung base. So who is going to cut off whom was a matter of the balance of the relative strengths and one of the reasons why the maniacs in JIA had been at least somewhat restrained in their hysteria: inefficient as it was, the Kuomintang army was huge and reasonably well-armed so, strategically the Japanese forces could find themselves squeezed between the Russians and Chinese. Ah yes, and the Mongolians as well. As a minimal precaution, the Northern Manchuria, Mukden and Kwangtung peninsula had to be strongly fortified and this required time a resources so RE still had time for its own preparations.
JRN also got its doubts after information was “leaked” that at the first sign of a trouble the Russians are going to destroy all oil production in Sakhalin, most of which was going to Japan. Unless an alternative supply source is secured (like the Dutch oil in Indonesia), this could seriously handicap the naval operations. So priorities had been shifted to have a reasonably secure scenario.
The naval situation for RE was quite complicated because it had to protect a very long perimeter Vladivostok - Sakhalin - Kuril Islands - Kamchatka - Aleutian Islands - Alaska with Sakhalin being the obvious #1 attack target due to its proximity to Japan, oil and the obvious fact that if Japan takes it, then Vladivostok as a naval base will be cut of the rest of the perimeter. Which means that prior to the conflict the naval bases on Alaska and Kamchatka must be strengthened, properly supplied and a part of the Pacific fleet must be relocated to them with the obvious supply problems in the case of a prolonged conflict and a need to intensify traffic on the “Arctic route” by redeploying two more icebreakers from the Baltic. All things considering, it would be very nice to have the allies with their own interests on the Pacific and the navies to back up these interests.
Two other big players in the region, the US and UK, also were not quite happy. Japan was controlling both sides of the Bohai Strait and, as a result, access to Beijing and the Huang He River. Also, from Japanese-controlled Shandong region, very important (in the terms of the American and British businesses) Shanghai and Nankin were within a reasonably easy reach by land. Of course, Kuomintang still would have a big army and a lot of space for maneuver but a war lasting forever would mean no business in China for a long time. UK already had experience with Hing Kong during the Barmalei War, which made it clear that the place is not defensible. It was expected that the combined American and British naval power would be adequate for standing up to the IJN and eventually break it but this would not easily solve the issue of the land operations and an ally with a
really strong army would be quite important. The list of such allies had been limited to one.
It was a small wonder that relations between the three Powers had been warming up really fast. It was also a small wonder that these developments made the ongoing European mess extremely inconvenient for Russia due to its allied obligations and for Britain because the potential mess on the Med may led to a closure of the Suez Canal or, at best, will create problems with shipping. Of course, the Domestic Almost Genius assured the Emperor that the Russian Imperial Army is quite capable of fighting on two fronts and, in a rare show of a solidarity, there was a complete consensus of the Russian military establishment on the subject. The Navy was slightly less enthusiastic but commander of the Pacific Fleet, vice-admiral Kolchak presented a seemingly viable plan of operations wholeheartedly supported by Grand Duke Alexander Mikhailovich. However, both the army and the navy, not to mention the Finance Minister, expressed an opinion that one war at a time would be a better option.
But how to calm down the excessively bellicose members of the two Axises? While Russia had a clear leverage over the Horizontal one, the Vertical one was a clear case loose cannon or a car without the breaks, or something completely weird like the image above. The diplomatic efforts did not produce any results and at that point the
Almost Genius rose up to the task by proposing “a diabolical master plan” so simple and obvious that suspicions arose about him possibly being a
Full Scale Genius. The old Russian proverb which inspired the whole plan was
“It is better to see once than to hear hundred times.”